Analysis: Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Islam Makhachev to Win

Score: 24 Odds: Islam Makhachev: -670 Dustin Poirier: +430

Islam Makhachev's Breakdown

Islam Makhachev is a dominant force in the lightweight division, with an 11-fight win streak in the UFC. As a protégé of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev's wrestling and grappling are world-class. He averages 3.17 takedowns per fight at an impressive 61% accuracy rate. On the mat, Makhachev is a master of control, landing over 5 ground strikes per minute while hunting for submissions.

In his recent fights, Makhachev has shown improved striking as well. He knocked out the durable Dan Hooker in the 1st round of their last bout, showcasing evolving stand-up to complement his grappling base. Makhachev lands strikes at a high 60% accuracy rate.

Dustin Poirier's Breakdown

Dustin Poirier is one of the most experienced and well-rounded fighters at 155 lbs. Known for his slick boxing and incredible toughness, Poirier is dangerous anywhere the fight goes. On the feet, he has a higher output than Makhachev, landing 3 more significant strikes per minute. Poirier's ability to slip punches and fire back with crisp combinations makes him a constant threat.

While primarily a striker, Poirier also has underrated grappling skills. He is able to score timely takedowns of his own and is crafty off his back. Poirier is especially fond of jumping for guillotine chokes when defending takedowns, a technique he calls "jumping the gilly". However, Poirier was controlled and submitted by Khabib Nurmagomedov in their title fight, exposing potential vulnerabilities in his takedown defense (currently at 67%).

Analysis and Key Points

• This is a classic grappler vs striker matchup, with Makhachev wanting to wrestle and Poirier looking to box.
• Makhachev's suffocating top game could be the deciding factor if he can take Poirier down consistently.
• Poirier needs to maintain distance, stuff takedowns, and make Makhachev pay with his superior striking.
• Watch for Poirier to "jump the gilly" and attack guillotines if Makhachev shoots in recklessly.
• Makhachev's own striking has improved a lot and he lands at a very high accuracy.
• Cardio could play a role if it goes late, but Makhachev has shown excellent pacing and pressure.

Understanding the Prediction

The key factors driving the model's prediction for Makhachev are:

• Odds: Makhachev is a massive -670 favorite, boosting the model's score by +22 points.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Makhachev lands 11.67 more impactful significant strikes per minute than he absorbs, raising the score by +2.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: Makhachev's constant takedown threat is reflected in his 5.74 attempts per fight, increasing the model's output by +1.

Poirier's advantages like a higher striking output and win streak did reduce the score a bit, but could not overcome Makhachev's overall strengths.

Past Model Performance

WolfTickets is a perfect 4-0 in predicting Makhachev's fights, showing a strong understanding of his skills. However, it has missed on Poirier's last 2 fights, perhaps putting a bit too much stock in Makhachev's more recent dominant wins. This adds a little uncertainty to the pick.

Conclusion

Islam Makhachev enters this title fight as a sizable favorite and WolfTickets gives him a 74% likelihood of victory. Makhachev's elite grappling and ever-improving striking form a potent combination that will be difficult for anyone, even a fighter as talented as Dustin Poirier, to overcome.

While Poirier certainly has paths to victory with his crisp boxing and submission skills, he faces an uphill battle. Poirier will need to keep the fight standing, avoid being trapped against the cage, and land something big to turn the tide. He may also look to catch Makhachev with a guillotine choke during takedown attempts. But if Makhachev can impose his wrestling game while being mindful of Poirier's guillotine threats, he should be able to control the action and grind his way to a convincing decision or even a late submission.

This is a fascinating clash of styles between two of the best lightweights in the world. Both have the capability to end the fight suddenly. In the end though, Makhachev's grappling prowess and well-rounded attack give him more avenues to secure the victory. It's his fight to lose.