Analysis: Paul Craig vs Caio Borralho

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Caio Borralho to Win

Score: 19 Odds: Paul Craig: 375 Caio Borralho: -500

Paul Craig's Breakdown

Paul Craig is a submission specialist with 8 of his 17 wins coming by way of submission. He's known for his tricky guard and ability to snatch up leg locks from seemingly nowhere. In his last fight against Andre Muniz, Craig was able to weather an early storm and catch Muniz with an upkick KO in the second round, showing he has power to go along with his grappling prowess.

However, Craig is coming off a loss to Brendan Allen where he was outgrappled and submitted in the third round. This exposed some holes in his usually dangerous ground game. Craig has also been finished by strikes in 4 of his 7 losses, so his striking defense can be lacking at times.

Caio Borralho's Breakdown

Caio Borralho is a well-rounded prospect who is undefeated in the UFC at 5-0. He has a solid striking game, landing 4.57 significant strikes per minute at a 74% accuracy in his UFC career so far. On the mat, Borralho has shown excellent grappling with 2.45 takedowns per fight and a submission win over Michal Oleksiejczuk in his last outing.

Borralho's striking defense has been stellar, avoiding 63% of his opponent's significant strike attempts in the UFC. His gas tank and pace have also been impressive, often taking over fights in the later rounds with volume and pressure.

Analysis and Key Points

• Submission threat vs submission defense: Much of this fight will likely come down to the grappling exchanges. Craig is always hunting for submissions, especially leg locks, but Borralho has yet to be submitted in his career and sports an excellent 73% takedown accuracy.
• Striking clash: On the feet, Borralho seems to have the edge in both output and defense. He lands nearly 2 more significant strikes per minute than Craig while absorbing far less in return. Craig will need to mind Borralho's sharp boxing and kicking game.
• Momentum and trajectory: Borralho is still young in his career and improving every fight. Meanwhile, Craig is 2-3 in his last 5 with a couple stoppage losses. The momentum seems to be on Borralho's side.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The oddsmakers have Borralho as a substantial favorite at -500, indicating he's seen as having a very high chance to win. This lines up with the model's prediction for Borralho and decreased the score by 17 points for Craig.

• Recent Win Percentage: Borralho is a perfect 5-0 in his last 5 UFC fights while Craig has lost 2 of his last 3. The model saw this recent win percentage as a 3 point confidence booster for Borralho.

• Significant Striking Metrics: Borralho has advantages in both striking output and defense over Craig in terms of significant strikes landed and absorbed per minute. This was seen as a positive for Borralho in the model.

• Reach: Borralho will have a 1-inch reach advantage which the model saw as a small positive in his favor.

Past Model Performance

In the past, the model has had success predicting both fighters, but has been more accurate overall with Borralho:

• The model is 2-0 predicting Borralho's fights, correctly calling his last 2 wins.
• For Craig, the model is 3-2, incorrectly picking him to beat Volkan Oezdemir and losing to Andre Muniz.

So while not perfect, the model has a solid track record here, especially on the Borralho side. The incorrect pick against Muniz does add a small bit of uncertainty though given Craig's submission skills.

Conclusion

All signs point to a Caio Borralho victory here. He has the statistical advantages in striking and has never been submitted, which is Craig's best path to victory. Combine that with Borralho's spotless UFC record and the oddsmakers heavy lean towards him, and he seems like a very justifiable pick by the model.

The only real cause for concern would be Craig catching Borralho in a submission out of nowhere, as he's known to do. But Borralho has been very difficult to control on the ground and always scrambles well back to his feet. Expect the younger, faster, more technical fighter in Borralho to get his hand raised and continue his unbeaten UFC run, likely by decision. The model's 19 point prediction margin feels appropriate.