Analysis: Jack Shore vs Joanderson Brito

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jack Shore to Win

Score: 3 Odds: Jack Shore: 140 Joanderson Brito: -170

Jack Shore's Breakdown

Shore is a well-rounded fighter with a strong grappling base. He's coming off an impressive submission win over Makwan Amirkhani in March, showcasing his slick submission skills. Shore has finished 4 of his 6 UFC wins by submission, using his wrestling to get the fight to the mat where he can hunt for chokes and locks.

His striking has steadily improved, landing crisp combos and mixing in leg kicks to keep opponents guessing. In his last fight, Shore landed a beautiful knee to the body that crumpled Amirkhani, setting up the fight-ending choke.

However, Shore's lone UFC loss came against Ricky Simon who was able to outwrestle him and secure a submission of his own. Shore will need to shore up his submission defense against a dangerous grappler like Brito.

Joanderson Brito's Breakdown

Brito is a ferocious finisher, with 3 stoppages in his 4 UFC wins. He's riding a 4-fight win streak with nasty knockouts over the likes of Westin Wilson and Andre Fili. Brito has legitimate one-punch KO power and throws with bad intentions.

On the mat, Brito is a crafty submission artist. He's tapped out his last two opponents, locking in a tight arm-triangle choke on Jonathan Pearce in his most recent bout. Brito's grappling is often overlooked due to his striking prowess, but he's a threat everywhere.

The one knock on Brito is his cardio. He throws with such power and intensity early that he's prone to fading in later rounds. In a 3-round fight that could be less of a factor, but something to watch for if Shore can weather the early storm.

Analysis and Key Points

• Classic grappler vs striker matchup with Shore's wrestling and submissions against Brito's knockout power
• Brito's 4-fight win streak is impressive and he has momentum
• Shore's sole loss came by submission, something Brito is very capable of pulling off
• Brito's cardio could become an issue if this goes deep into the fight
• Shore will look to mix in takedowns and work from top position
• Brito wants to keep this standing and land power shots

Understanding the Prediction

• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: This feature favors Shore, who attempts 10.15 takedowns per fight in his last 3 bouts compared to just 5.22 for Brito. Shore's wrestling could be a key factor.

• Striking Defense Percentage: Shore absorbs less significant strikes, with a 50% defense percentage compared to just 30% for Brito. Shore is better at avoiding damage.

• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Shore lands 19.57 more significant strikes than he absorbs per fight, while Brito only has a +0.80 differential. Shore is able to consistently outland opponents.

Past Model Performance

The model has been reasonably accurate on both fighters:

• Correctly predicted Shore to beat Amirkhani and Valiev, but incorrectly picked him over Simon
• Correctly predicted Brito's last two wins over Pearce and Fili

This improves confidence in the pick, but Shore's submission loss is still a risk factor given Brito's grappling skills.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts Jack Shore to wrestle his way to a win over Joanderson Brito. While Brito has the edge in pure knockout power, Shore's grappling and measured striking give him more paths to victory.

Look for Shore to mix in takedowns and control from top position, wearing Brito down over the course of the fight. If Brito can stuff the takedowns and land a big shot early he has a chance, but the pick is Shore to grind this one out for the W.