UFC Event Results

May 4, 2024

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
380.00m Elevation

Model Performance Summary (% Correct)

WTAI Model

Main: 60.0% Under: 83.33% Full: 72.73%

Profit Model

Main: 75.0% Under: 66.67% Full: 70.0%

Plain Model

Main: 50.0% Under: 50.0% Full: 50.0%

Selected Bets Results

ROI: %

Parlay #1

Vinc Pichel

Win

-500

Strength: 25.0 points
EV: -4.2%

Iasmin Lucindo

Win

-430

Strength: 19.0 points
EV: -2.0%

Caio Borralho

Win

-530

Strength: 19.0 points
EV: -5.0%

Total Odds

1.76x

Return on $10 Bet

$7.58

Parlay #2

Steve Erceg

Win

-215

Strength: 7.0 points
EV: -4.1%

Drakkar Klose

Win

-178

Strength: 17.0 points
EV: 13.1%

Kevin Borjas

Win

-150

Strength: 23.0 points
EV: 19.2%

Total Odds

3.81x

Return on $10 Bet

$28.14

Parlay #3

Ihor Potieria

Win

-520

Strength: 28.0 points
EV: -4.7%

Vitor Petrino

Win

-530

Strength: 27.0 points
EV: -5.0%

Myktybek Orolbai

Win

-260

Strength: 18.0 points
EV: 6.9%

Total Odds

1.96x

Return on $10 Bet

$9.62

The tables below show how the model predictions performed. Confidence scores indicate the model's certainty.

Correct predictions are shown in normal text, incorrect predictions are highlighted in red.

WTAI = WTAI Model Profit = Profit Model Plain = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
W
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Alexandre Pantoja
7
16
-4.1
-215
Steve Erceg
7
+164
Jonathan Martinez
9
14
16
6.8
-166
Jose Aldo
+130
Anthony Smith
0
+360
Vitor Petrino
27
12
-5.0
-530
Michel Pereira
28
21
18
-4.7
-520
Ihor Potieria
+350
Paul Craig
5
+360
Caio Borralho
19
2
-5.0
-530

Fight Analysis Recap

Click on any fight below to expand the detailed AI analysis and SHAP chart explaining the prediction.