Analysis: Dustin Poirier vs Benoit Saint Denis

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Benoit Saint Denis to Win

Score: 18 Odds: * Dustin Poirier: +157 * Benoit Saint Denis: -185

Dustin Poirier's Breakdown

Dustin Poirier is a battle-tested veteran of the UFC lightweight division known for his slick boxing, toughness, and well-rounded skill set. He holds notable victories over elite fighters like Conor McGregor, Justin Gaethje, and Max Holloway.

However, Poirier's last outing saw him suffer a devastating KO loss to Justin Gaethje. At 34 years old and with a lot of hard fights under his belt, there are questions about how much Poirier has left in the tank. Getting knocked out again here would be a major red flag.

While Poirier's striking is his calling card, particularly his crisp boxing combinations and kicks, his wrestling and grappling have come a long way. Against a grappling-heavy opponent like Saint Denis, Poirier will likely aim to keep the fight standing.

Benoit Saint Denis's Breakdown

Benoit Saint Denis is a promising French fighter with an impressive 13-1 record, with all 13 wins coming inside the distance. This highlights his dangerous finishing ability.

Saint Denis' game is built around his strong grappling. In the UFC, he's averaging an impressive 4.79 takedowns per fight with solid accuracy. His last win saw him submit Ismael Bonfim with a rear-naked choke, showcasing his submission threat. On the feet, he has a kickboxing background and throws hard kicks from the southpaw stance.

At 27, Saint Denis is still developing but has shown tremendous upside. A fight against a seasoned vet like Poirier is a significant step up, but if Saint Denis can get it to the mat, his aggressive submission game could pose real problems.

Analysis and Key Points

This fight pits Poirier's veteran savvy against Saint Denis' youthful potential. Poirier clearly has the edge in high-level experience, having fought the who's who of the lightweight division. His technical boxing and ability to seamlessly mix in kicks and takedowns make him a tough out for anyone.

However, at 34 and with a lot of wars in the rearview, it's valid to question how much Poirier has left. That KO loss to Gaethje was brutal.

Meanwhile, Saint Denis is 9 years younger and while he's not faced Poirier's level of competition, he's a live submission threat. If he can drag Poirier into a grappling-heavy fight and make things ugly, an upset is very possible.

It's also worth noting that Saint Denis will have a 1-inch reach advantage. For a boxer like Poirier who relies on commanding range, that could be pivotal if Saint Denis can make use of his kicks and southpaw jab.

Understanding the Prediction

In picking Saint Denis, the model appears to be weighing several key factors:

1) Poirier's age (34) and recent KO loss 2) Saint Denis' 1-inch reach advantage
3) Saint Denis' high volume of takedown attempts (14.11 per fight)

While their striking numbers are comparable, Saint Denis has a significant edge in wrestling, attempting over 10 more takedowns per fight than Poirier. Against an aging Poirier, this grappling-heavy approach could pay dividends.

The model also sees some risk in Poirier's negative strike absorption differentials, despite his overall strong striking stats. At this stage, damage accumulation is a real concern.

So while it's a competitive matchup, the model believes the younger, longer, wrestling-centric style of Saint Denis is a strong formula to topple a possibly declining Poirier.

Past Model Performance

The model has had some trouble predicting Poirier fights lately, going just 1 for his last 3. It seems to slightly overestimate Poirier's chances.

Conversely, the model has been dialed in on Saint Denis, correctly picking him in 3 of his last 4 fights. The lone miss was picking Bonfim over him.

So while Poirier can never be discounted given his body of work, there's good reason to trust the model's read on Saint Denis as a formidable favorite.

Conclusion

In a clash of crafty veteran vs surging prospect, the model likes Benoit Saint Denis to earn the biggest win of his career over Dustin Poirier. Saint Denis' grappling-heavy style and 1-inch reach advantage could be a potent combination against a Poirier who has looked more vulnerable in recent outings.

That said, Poirier is as battle-tested as they come. His highly technical, well-rounded game and wealth of big-fight experience means he can never be discounted. If he can stuff Saint Denis' takedowns and turn it into a boxing match, his crisp hands and veteran wiles could easily lead him to victory.

All in all, this is a fantastic bit of matchmaking between an ascending prospect and a grizzled vet. Regardless of the result, expect a thrilling firefight for as long as it lasts between these two talented 155-pounders.