Analysis: CJ Vergara vs Assu Almabayev

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Assu Almabayev to Win

Score: 27 Odds: CJ Vergara: +340 Assu Almabayev: -500

CJ Vergara's Breakdown

CJ Vergara is an aggressive striker who has shown improvements in his fight IQ and overall MMA game over his UFC career. He has a dynamic striking arsenal, mixing in punches and kicks effectively. In his most recent win against Vinicius Salvador, Vergara likely utilized low kicks and boxing combinations to disrupt Salvador's mobility and control the fight. This mirrors a similar approach to what Justin Gaethje used against Dustin Poirier with low kicks.

However, Vergara does have some defensive liabilities, especially when overcommitting to his powerful strikes. He was submitted by armbar in his loss to Tatsuro Taira, showing a potential vulnerability on the ground against high-level grapplers.

Assu Almabayev's Breakdown

Assu Almabayev is a submission specialist, earning all his UFC wins so far by rear naked choke. In his debut against Ode Osbourne, Almabayev showcased his grappling prowess, taking Osbourne down and methodically advancing position before sinking in the choke in the 2nd round.

On the feet, Almabayev has a solid kicking game and overhand right he looks for. But his real strength is in grappling exchanges, where he is relentless in pursuit of the takedown and has excellent back-taking ability.

Analysis and Key Points

This shapes up as a classic striker vs grappler match-up. Vergara will look to keep it standing and outland Almabayev with his diverse striking. Almabayev conversely needs to get it to the mat where he can employ his high-level submission game.

The key for Vergara will be stuffing takedowns and making Almabayev pay with counters. He cannot afford to be put on his back given Almabayev's grappling.

For Almabayev, closing the distance safely to get to his takedowns will be critical. He was able to do this against a dangerous striker in Osbourne which bodes well. If he can take Vergara's back, the threat of the rear naked choke will be ever-present.

Understanding the Prediction

The model is picking Almabayev here with decent confidence, largely due to the big edge he has in the betting odds. At -500, Almabayev is a massive favorite, indicating that bettors and odds makers view his grappling as a serious problem for Vergara.

Other factors boosting Almabayev in the model are his higher recent takedown attempt rate (9.17 per fight vs 0 for Vergara) and his 90% UFC win rate compared to 67% for Vergara.

Vergara's advantages in striking metrics like significant striking differential are outweighed by Almabayev's grappling and win rate stats in the model's evaluation.

Past Model Performance

The model is 1-1 in predicting Vergara's fights, getting his last win correct but incorrectly picking against him vs Daniel Lacerda.

For Almabayev, the model is 1-0 but with only one fight to go off of. His dominant win over Osbourne was scored correctly.

The limited data, especially on Almabayev's side, adds some uncertainty to the pick. But the model's correct prediction in his debut, along with his impressive performance, provides some confidence.

Conclusion

Assu Almabayev is favored to defeat CJ Vergara by WolfTicketsAI, with his high-level grappling and submission skills being the key factors. Almabayev's strong betting odds and takedown metrics boost him significantly in the model's assessment.

However, Vergara's striking and recent improvements make him a live underdog. If he can deny the takedowns and land his powerful shots, he has a path to victory.

With limited prediction data on both fighters, this pick comes with a solid degree of uncertainty. But based on fighting styles and the model's read of the matchup, Almabayev is the justified favorite. His submission over Osbourne shows his grappling can be a serious equalizer against dangerous strikers.