Andrea Lee vs. Miranda Maverick - UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Miranda Maverick by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: Anaheim, California, USA
Elevation: 48.00m
Weight Class: Women's Flyweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
Fighter
WolfTicketsAI
Profit
Plain
Odds When Predicted

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Analysis: Andrea Lee vs Miranda Maverick

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Miranda Maverick to Win

Score: 13 Odds: Andrea Lee: +159 Miranda Maverick: -185

Andrea Lee's Breakdown

Andrea Lee's UFC journey has been a rollercoaster, marked by a mix of triumphs and setbacks. Her Muay Thai background and BJJ skills make her a formidable opponent. However, her recent UFC record reveals some vulnerabilities, especially in decision-making and defense.

Past Performance Analysis: - Lee's loss against Natalia Silva showcased her striking prowess but also highlighted her difficulties in adapting to Silva's style. Her defensive head movement and footwork, though improved, were still found lacking. - The split decision loss to Maycee Barber was a close call. Lee's striking and grappling were on display, but her inability to decisively dominate the exchanges cost her. - Her KO/TKO win over Cynthia Calvillo stands out, demonstrating her striking power and improved fight IQ. - However, a trend of losses, especially in recent fights, signals a potential decline.

Model's Past Predictions: - WolfTicketsAI has been mixed in its predictions for Lee, correctly predicting her loss against Silva, but missing the mark on the Barber fight.

Current Stats: - Lee's significant striking and grappling stats are commendable but her striking defense could be a concern against a well-rounded fighter like Maverick.

Miranda Maverick's Breakdown

Miranda Maverick has proven to be a rising talent in the Women's Flyweight division. Her grappling background, complemented by a steadily improving striking game, makes her a tough matchup for anyone in the division.

Past Performance Analysis: - Maverick’s recent win against Priscila Cachoeira displayed her grappling dominance and evolving striking skills. - Her loss to Jasmine Jasudavicius, however, revealed issues with maintaining control against a persistent striker. - Maverick's unanimous decision win over Shanna Young showcased her well-rounded skill set.

Model's Past Predictions: - WolfTicketsAI has shown a better track record predicting Maverick's fights, accurately forecasting her victories against Young and Mazo, though it missed her loss against Jasudavicius.

Current Stats: - Maverick's striking and grappling stats are impressive, particularly her ability to take the fight to the ground and control opponents.

Analysis and Key Points

  1. Striking vs. Grappling: Lee's striking ability is up against Maverick's grappling prowess. The clash of styles will be pivotal in determining the outcome.
  2. Adaptability: Both fighters have shown the ability to adapt, but Maverick seems to have a slight edge in this aspect, especially in her ability to mix striking with grappling.
  3. Defensive Gaps: Lee's defensive issues, particularly in her head movement and footwork, could be exploited by Maverick's improving striking game.
  4. Pressure and Pace: Maverick's conditioning and ability to maintain pressure could wear Lee down, especially in the later rounds.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has shown an overall competent performance in predicting past fights of both fighters, with a notable accuracy in Maverick's matchups. However, its mixed results in predicting Lee's fights add a layer of uncertainty to this prediction.

Conclusion

Miranda Maverick is favored to win against Andrea Lee, largely due to her superior grappling skills, physical strength, and evolving striking game. While Lee's striking is formidable, Maverick's ability to blend her grappling with improved striking poses a significant challenge. The key will be Maverick's ability to take the fight to the ground and control Lee, offsetting Lee's striking advantage. Considering Lee's recent performance trends and Maverick's well-rounded skill set, the prediction leans towards a Maverick victory, likely through a combination of ground control and cumulative striking damage.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Andrea Lee Miranda Maverick
Main Stats
Age 35 26
Height 66" 63"
Reach 69" 65"
Win Percentage 61.90% 73.68%
Wins 13 15
Losses 9 5
Wins at Weight Class 5 5
Losses at Weight Class 6 3
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 52.36% 58.81%
Significant Striking Accuracy 47.41% 46.77%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 6.154 6.980
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.907 3.711
Knockdowns per Fight 0.097 0.000
Striking Impact Differential 8.27% 39.63%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 17.09% 13.50%
Striking Output Differential -12.18% 47.38%
Significant Striking Output Differential 2.45% 18.75%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 114.59% 61.10%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 132.11% 102.44%
Striking Defense Percentage 63.71% 59.15%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.581 0.453
Takedowns per Fight 1.840 2.414
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 3.196 4.978
Takedown Defense 84.62% 137.50%
Takedown Accuracy 57.58% 48.48%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.260 2.203
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 6.728 6.044
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.267 1.951
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 1.563 0.885
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 2.299 1.167
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.762 0.513
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 1.085 0.624
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 1.324 0.724
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.665 0.161
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.536 0.221
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.678 0.272
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.245 0.282
Andrea Lee History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Aug. 19, 2023 Women's Flyweight Andrea Lee Natalia Silva Natalia Silva
March 25, 2023 Women's Flyweight Andrea Lee Maycee Barber Maycee Barber
May 14, 2022 Women's Flyweight Viviane Araujo Andrea Lee Viviane Araujo
Nov. 13, 2021 Women's Flyweight Cynthia Calvillo Andrea Lee Andrea Lee
May 15, 2021 Women's Flyweight Andrea Lee Antonina Shevchenko Andrea Lee
Sept. 12, 2020 Women's Flyweight Roxanne Modafferi Andrea Lee Roxanne Modafferi
Feb. 8, 2020 Women's Flyweight Lauren Murphy Andrea Lee Lauren Murphy
Sept. 7, 2019 Women's Flyweight Joanne Wood Andrea Lee Joanne Wood
June 22, 2019 Women's Flyweight Andrea Lee Montana De La Rosa Andrea Lee
Feb. 17, 2019 Women's Flyweight Ashlee Evans-Smith Andrea Lee Andrea Lee
May 19, 2018 Women's Flyweight Veronica Hardy Andrea Lee Andrea Lee
Miranda Maverick History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
July 29, 2023 Women's Flyweight Miranda Maverick Priscila Cachoeira Miranda Maverick
June 10, 2023 Women's Flyweight Miranda Maverick Jasmine Jasudavicius Jasmine Jasudavicius
Nov. 5, 2022 Women's Flyweight Miranda Maverick Shanna Young Miranda Maverick
March 12, 2022 Women's Flyweight Sabina Mazo Miranda Maverick Miranda Maverick
Dec. 11, 2021 Women's Flyweight Miranda Maverick Erin Blanchfield Erin Blanchfield
July 24, 2021 Women's Flyweight Miranda Maverick Maycee Barber Maycee Barber
March 27, 2021 Women's Flyweight Gillian Robertson Miranda Maverick Miranda Maverick
Oct. 24, 2020 Women's Flyweight Liana Jojua Miranda Maverick Miranda Maverick