Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva - UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Raquel Pennington by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Elevation: 77.00m
Weight Class: Women's Bantamweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
Fighter
WolfTicketsAI
Profit
Plain
Odds When Predicted

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Analysis: Raquel Pennington vs Mayra Bueno Silva

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Raquel Pennington to Win

Raquel Pennington's Breakdown

Raquel Pennington, a seasoned warrior in the Women's Bantamweight division, brings an arsenal that's heavy on resilience, striking, and clinch work. Her recent unanimous decision win over Aspen Ladd showcases her ability to handle aggressive strikers and turn the tide in her favor. Pennington's strategy often revolves around closing the distance, utilizing dirty boxing in the clinch, reminiscent of the approach of fighters like Randy Couture. Her split decision victory over Ketlen Vieira further cements her capability to handle versatile fighters.

Pennington's fight against Macy Chiasson is a testament to her evolving ground game. Her adeptness at transitioning from striking to submissions, particularly guillotine chokes, has become a crucial aspect of her style. Despite her loss to Holly Holm, Pennington demonstrated a steadfastness against a fighter known for a more evasive, hit-and-run style.

What stands out is Pennington's consistent performance against top-level competition. Her ability to adapt and evolve, even in losses, highlights her growth as a fighter. Pennington's clinch work, combined with an improved ground game, makes her a formidable opponent for anyone in the division.

Mayra Bueno Silva's Breakdown

Mayra Bueno Silva brings a contrasting style to the octagon, characterized by her aggressive grappling and submission skills. Her recent submission win over Holly Holm was particularly impressive, showcasing her ability to finish fights against high-level opponents. Silva's victory against Lina Lansberg through submission underlines her prowess on the ground.

Silva's style is aggressive, often forcing opponents into uncomfortable grappling exchanges where she shines. Her armbar victory over Stephanie Egger is a prime example of her submission threat. Against Wu Yanan, Silva displayed her striking evolution, combining it effectively with her grappling base.

However, Silva's losses to fighters like Manon Fiorot and Maryna Moroz expose potential weaknesses in striking defense and pacing. Silva's aggressive style can sometimes lead to her being caught in exchanges or gassed out in later rounds.

Analysis and Key Points

Pennington's experience and adaptability in the face of diverse fighting styles make her a tough match-up for Silva. While Silva's ground game is formidable, Pennington has shown significant improvements in her grappling defense and submission awareness. The key for Pennington will be to manage the distance effectively, utilize her clinch work to wear Silva down, and avoid prolonged ground exchanges.

Silva, on the other hand, will need to find a way to bring the fight to the ground and exploit any openings for submissions. Her striking has improved, but she'll need to be cautious of Pennington's counter-striking and clinch control.

Conclusion

This fight is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, with both fighters having evolved to become more well-rounded. Pennington's experience and recent performance trend suggest she has the tools to neutralize Silva's grappling threat and control the fight in the clinch and at striking range. Silva's path to victory lies in her ability to take the fight to the ground and lock in a submission. However, given Pennington's recent form and adaptability, WolfTicketsAI's prediction of a Pennington win seems well-founded.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Raquel Pennington Mayra Bueno Silva
Main Stats
Age 35 32
Height 67" 66"
Reach 67" 66"
Win Percentage 62.50% 83.33%
Wins 16 10
Losses 9 3
Wins at Weight Class 0 0
Losses at Weight Class 1 0
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 57.75% 62.47%
Significant Striking Accuracy 50.68% 55.02%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.697 5.841
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.018 4.175
Knockdowns per Fight 0.000 0.000
Striking Impact Differential 2.12% -12.56%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 9.53% -5.33%
Striking Output Differential -21.18% -44.22%
Significant Striking Output Differential -13.29% -32.78%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 102.04% 118.13%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 137.44% 152.14%
Striking Defense Percentage 62.28% 57.23%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.623 1.427
Takedowns per Fight 0.935 0.357
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 3.428 0.714
Takedown Defense 57.58% 47.83%
Takedown Accuracy 27.27% 50.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.252 1.998
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 5.809 4.663
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.832 2.736
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 1.288 1.273
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.579 1.606
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.981 1.558
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.478 0.904
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.540 1.320
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.532 0.452
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 1.313 0.857
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.616 1.047
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.006 0.428
Raquel Pennington History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Jan. 14, 2023 Women's Bantamweight Ketlen Vieira Raquel Pennington Raquel Pennington
April 9, 2022 Women's Bantamweight Aspen Ladd Raquel Pennington Raquel Pennington
Dec. 18, 2021 Women's Featherweight Raquel Pennington Macy Chiasson Raquel Pennington
Sept. 18, 2021 Women's Bantamweight Pannie Kianzad Raquel Pennington Raquel Pennington
June 20, 2020 Women's Bantamweight Raquel Pennington Marion Reneau Raquel Pennington
Jan. 18, 2020 Women's Bantamweight Holly Holm Raquel Pennington Holly Holm
July 20, 2019 Women's Bantamweight Raquel Pennington Irene Aldana Raquel Pennington
Nov. 10, 2018 Women's Bantamweight Raquel Pennington Germaine de Randamie Germaine de Randamie
May 12, 2018 UFC Women's Bantamweight Title Amanda Nunes Raquel Pennington Amanda Nunes
Nov. 12, 2016 Women's Bantamweight Miesha Tate Raquel Pennington Raquel Pennington
Aug. 20, 2016 Women's Bantamweight Raquel Pennington Elizabeth Phillips Raquel Pennington
April 16, 2016 Women's Bantamweight Bethe Correia Raquel Pennington Raquel Pennington
Sept. 5, 2015 Women's Bantamweight Jessica Andrade Raquel Pennington Raquel Pennington
Feb. 28, 2015 Women's Bantamweight Raquel Pennington Holly Holm Holly Holm
Dec. 6, 2014 Women's Bantamweight Raquel Pennington Ashlee Evans-Smith Raquel Pennington
March 15, 2014 Women's Bantamweight Raquel Pennington Jessica Andrade Jessica Andrade
Nov. 30, 2013 Women's Bantamweight Roxanne Modafferi Raquel Pennington Raquel Pennington
Mayra Bueno Silva History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
July 15, 2023 Women's Bantamweight Holly Holm Mayra Bueno Silva None
Feb. 18, 2023 Women's Bantamweight Lina Lansberg Mayra Bueno Silva Mayra Bueno Silva
Aug. 6, 2022 Women's Bantamweight Mayra Bueno Silva Stephanie Egger Mayra Bueno Silva
April 16, 2022 Women's Bantamweight Mayra Bueno Silva Wu Yanan Mayra Bueno Silva
Oct. 16, 2021 Women's Flyweight Manon Fiorot Mayra Bueno Silva Manon Fiorot
Feb. 27, 2021 Women's Flyweight Montana De La Rosa Mayra Bueno Silva None
Sept. 19, 2020 Women's Flyweight Mayra Bueno Silva Mara Romero Borella Mayra Bueno Silva
March 14, 2020 Women's Flyweight Mayra Bueno Silva Maryna Moroz Maryna Moroz
Sept. 22, 2018 Women's Flyweight Mayra Bueno Silva Gillian Robertson Mayra Bueno Silva