Chris Curtis vs. Marc-Andre Barriault - UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Chris Curtis by Decision - Split

Fight Info:
Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Elevation: 77.00m
Weight Class: Middleweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
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Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Analysis: Chris Curtis vs Marc-Andre Barriault

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Marc-Andre Barriault to Win

Chris Curtis's Breakdown

Chris Curtis, sporting a professional MMA record of 30 wins, 10 losses, and 1 no contest, is a seasoned fighter with a notable striking background. In recent bouts, he's shown resilience and adaptability, particularly against high-level grapplers like Rodolfo Vieira. Curtis's striking, marked by a strong left hand and effective hooks and uppercuts, is his most potent weapon. He's demonstrated a knack for body shots to wear down opponents, an approach he used effectively against Vieira. However, Curtis's performance has shown a tendency for hesitancy in early rounds, potentially costing him on scorecards.

In his fight against Kelvin Gastelum, Curtis displayed his striking prowess but fell short in a unanimous decision. Against Nassourdine Imavov, Curtis demonstrated his ability to withstand pressure, particularly in grappling exchanges, but an accidental clash of heads led to a no contest. His win against Joaquin Buckley, marked by effective counter-striking, highlighted his knockout power.

Curtis's stats, including his high knockdown rate and significant strikes landed per minute, underscore his striking capabilities. However, his recent win percentage of 0.33 signals a need to refine his approach, particularly in dealing with tactical fighters who can exploit his aggression.

Marc-Andre Barriault's Breakdown

Marc-Andre Barriault brings a record of 16 wins, 6 losses, and 1 no contest. Known for his aggressive style and endurance, Barriault has demonstrated his ability to maintain a high pace and impose his will in the octagon. His durability and forward pressure make him a formidable opponent.

Barriault's recent performances, like his unanimous decision win over Eryk Anders, showcase his striking and grappling skills. His bout against Julian Marquez highlighted his proficiency in boxing combinations and pressure tactics, reminiscent of fighters like Eddie Alvarez. However, his loss to Anthony Hernandez via submission points to potential vulnerabilities in his ground game.

Against Jordan Wright, Barriault's pressure-based striking was effective, dictating the pace and controlling positioning. His match against Chidi Njokuani, though ending in a loss, demonstrated his willingness to engage in striking exchanges, albeit with some defensive gaps.

Barriault's stats, with significant strikes landed per minute and a notable striking accuracy, paint him as a high-volume striker. His recent win percentage of 0.67 indicates a positive trend in his career, though his approach leaves room for potential counterattacks.

Analysis and Key Points

Both fighters are striking specialists, but their approaches differ. Curtis is more of a precision striker with knockout power, as seen in his fight against Buckley. Barriault, on the other hand, is a pressure fighter who thrives in high-pace exchanges, evident in his bout against Wright.

Curtis's tendency for hesitancy and a lower recent win rate could be factors against the relentless aggression of Barriault. Barriault's pressure might overwhelm Curtis, especially if the latter doesn't adapt quickly. However, Curtis's counter-striking ability poses a threat to Barriault's aggressive style, offering opportunities for Curtis if he can exploit Barriault's forward momentum.

Conclusion

This matchup is poised to be a striking battle with both fighters having the capability to end the fight early. Barriault's relentless pressure and high-volume striking could be the key to victory, particularly if he maintains his pace and avoids Curtis's powerful counters. The prediction for Barriault to win seems grounded in his recent performances and his ability to dictate the pace of the fight. However, Curtis's knockout power and counter-striking skills should not be underestimated, making this an intriguing and potentially close contest.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Chris Curtis Marc-Andre Barriault
Main Stats
Age 36 33
Height 70" 73"
Reach 75" 74"
Win Percentage 75.00% 72.73%
Wins 31 16
Losses 10 7
Wins at Weight Class 4 4
Losses at Weight Class 3 6
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 49.45% 50.85%
Significant Striking Accuracy 47.29% 47.36%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.629 7.032
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.062 5.949
Knockdowns per Fight 0.622 0.364
Striking Impact Differential -10.43% 5.73%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -14.43% 8.18%
Striking Output Differential -26.29% 12.00%
Significant Striking Output Differential -31.14% 14.36%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 129.48% 88.74%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 143.44% 101.90%
Striking Defense Percentage 52.92% 53.72%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.000 0.121
Takedowns per Fight 0.000 0.243
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 0.000 0.970
Takedown Defense 8.33% 48.84%
Takedown Accuracy 0.00% 25.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 3.098 4.389
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 8.036 10.548
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 3.859 3.249
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 1.535 1.051
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 2.158 1.398
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.162 1.520
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.429 0.509
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.512 0.614
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 1.439 0.453
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.332 1.689
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.387 2.457
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.249 1.334
Chris Curtis History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
June 10, 2023 Middleweight Nassourdine Imavov Chris Curtis None
April 8, 2023 Middleweight Chris Curtis Kelvin Gastelum Kelvin Gastelum
Dec. 10, 2022 Middleweight Chris Curtis Joaquin Buckley Chris Curtis
July 23, 2022 Middleweight Jack Hermansson Chris Curtis Jack Hermansson
June 25, 2022 Middleweight Chris Curtis Rodolfo Vieira Chris Curtis
Dec. 4, 2021 Middleweight Brendan Allen Chris Curtis Chris Curtis
Nov. 6, 2021 Middleweight Phil Hawes Chris Curtis Chris Curtis
Marc-Andre Barriault History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
June 10, 2023 Middleweight Marc-Andre Barriault Eryk Anders Marc-Andre Barriault
March 4, 2023 Middleweight Julian Marquez Marc-Andre Barriault Marc-Andre Barriault
Sept. 17, 2022 Middleweight Anthony Hernandez Marc-Andre Barriault Anthony Hernandez
April 23, 2022 Catch Weight Jordan Wright Marc-Andre Barriault Marc-Andre Barriault
Feb. 5, 2022 Middleweight Chidi Njokuani Marc-Andre Barriault Chidi Njokuani
Sept. 4, 2021 Middleweight Dalcha Lungiambula Marc-Andre Barriault Marc-Andre Barriault
March 27, 2021 Middleweight Marc-Andre Barriault Abu Azaitar Marc-Andre Barriault
June 20, 2020 Middleweight Marc-Andre Barriault Oskar Piechota None
Dec. 21, 2019 Middleweight JunYong Park Marc-Andre Barriault JunYong Park
July 27, 2019 Middleweight Marc-Andre Barriault Krzysztof Jotko Krzysztof Jotko
May 4, 2019 Middleweight Marc-Andre Barriault Andrew Sanchez Andrew Sanchez