Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington - UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Leon Edwards by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 627.00m
Weight Class: Welterweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Leon Edwards
19
10
20.0
-145
Colby Covington
11
+120

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Analysis: Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Leon Edwards to Win

Leon Edwards's Breakdown

Leon Edwards has shown remarkable consistency in the UFC, boasting a recent win streak and a notable victory over Kamaru Usman. His striking style, though less aggressive, is precise and calculated, capitalizing on clinch striking and effective use of elbows. Edwards' evolution in wrestling, clinch work, and ground game indicates a well-rounded skill set. His kicking abilities maintain range and create openings for strikes. His ability to manage aggressive fighters will be crucial against Covington. However, his performance can be affected by pace management and cardiovascular endurance, especially against a high-volume striker like Covington.

Colby Covington's Breakdown

Colby Covington is known for his ultra-aggressive style, which, though not always damaging, consistently pressures opponents. His exceptional cardio allows him to maintain a high pace, potentially overwhelming Edwards. Covington's wrestling skills, particularly his use of various takedowns and chain wrestling, make him a formidable opponent. His transition from striking to wrestling is a key aspect of his strategy. However, Covington's aggressive takedown attempts leave him vulnerable to submissions, and his predictable striking entries could be exploited by a striker of Edwards' caliber. His forward aggression might also leave him open to counters.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Edwards' precision striking and clinch work can counter Covington's volume striking.
  • Edwards' improved wrestling and ground game are essential against Covington's takedown attempts.
  • Covington's relentless aggression and cardio could test Edwards' pace management and endurance.
  • Covington's takedown variety and striking to wrestling transitions are key, but he must avoid being predictable and exposing himself to counters.

Conclusion

Leon Edwards is predicted to win, likely due to his precise striking, improved grappling, and ability to manage aggressive fighters like Covington. However, Covington's relentless pace and wrestling could challenge Edwards, especially if he can maintain pressure and avoid being countered. The fight's outcome will hinge on Edwards' ability to counter Covington's aggression with calculated striking and clinch work, while Covington must balance his aggression with caution to avoid Edwards' counters.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Leon Edwards Colby Covington
Main Stats
Age 32 35
Height 74" 71"
Reach 74" 72"
Win Percentage 87.50% 85.00%
Wins 22 17
Losses 3 4
Wins at Weight Class 2 0
Losses at Weight Class 0 2
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 59.59% 51.78%
Significant Striking Accuracy 53.38% 39.06%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.798 7.501
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 2.796 4.099
Knockdowns per Fight 0.286 0.060
Striking Impact Differential -15.44% 53.67%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 6.56% 17.33%
Striking Output Differential -22.50% 104.13%
Significant Striking Output Differential 0.81% 59.80%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 79.14% 52.50%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 99.86% 93.42%
Striking Defense Percentage 53.82% 55.65%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.343 0.181
Takedowns per Fight 1.257 4.046
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 3.771 8.817
Takedown Defense 44.62% 38.89%
Takedown Accuracy 33.33% 45.89%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 1.611 2.887
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 3.813 8.865
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.417 2.005
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.644 0.640
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.831 0.974
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.632 0.733
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.541 0.572
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.594 0.652
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.347 0.314
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.381 0.431
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.469 0.636
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.419 0.358
Leon Edwards History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
March 18, 2023 UFC Welterweight Title Leon Edwards Kamaru Usman Leon Edwards
Aug. 20, 2022 UFC Welterweight Title Kamaru Usman Leon Edwards Leon Edwards
June 12, 2021 Welterweight Leon Edwards Nate Diaz Leon Edwards
March 13, 2021 Welterweight Leon Edwards Belal Muhammad None
July 20, 2019 Welterweight Rafael Dos Anjos Leon Edwards Leon Edwards
March 16, 2019 Welterweight Leon Edwards Gunnar Nelson Leon Edwards
June 23, 2018 Welterweight Donald Cerrone Leon Edwards Leon Edwards
March 17, 2018 Welterweight Leon Edwards Peter Sobotta Leon Edwards
Sept. 2, 2017 Welterweight Leon Edwards Bryan Barberena Leon Edwards
March 18, 2017 Welterweight Leon Edwards Vicente Luque Leon Edwards
Oct. 8, 2016 Welterweight Leon Edwards Albert Tumenov Leon Edwards
May 8, 2016 Welterweight Leon Edwards Dominic Waters Leon Edwards
Dec. 19, 2015 Welterweight Kamaru Usman Leon Edwards Kamaru Usman
July 18, 2015 Welterweight Leon Edwards Pawel Pawlak Leon Edwards
April 11, 2015 Welterweight Seth Baczynski Leon Edwards Leon Edwards
Nov. 8, 2014 Welterweight Claudio Silva Leon Edwards Claudio Silva
Colby Covington History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
March 5, 2022 Welterweight Colby Covington Jorge Masvidal Colby Covington
Nov. 6, 2021 UFC Welterweight Title Kamaru Usman Colby Covington Kamaru Usman
Sept. 19, 2020 Welterweight Colby Covington Tyron Woodley Colby Covington
Dec. 14, 2019 UFC Welterweight Title Kamaru Usman Colby Covington Kamaru Usman
Aug. 3, 2019 Welterweight Colby Covington Robbie Lawler Colby Covington
June 9, 2018 UFC Interim Welterweight Title Rafael Dos Anjos Colby Covington Colby Covington
Oct. 28, 2017 Welterweight Demian Maia Colby Covington Colby Covington
June 17, 2017 Welterweight Dong Hyun Kim Colby Covington Colby Covington
Dec. 17, 2016 Welterweight Bryan Barberena Colby Covington Colby Covington
Aug. 20, 2016 Welterweight Colby Covington Max Griffin Colby Covington
June 18, 2016 Welterweight Colby Covington Jonathan Meunier Colby Covington
Dec. 12, 2015 Welterweight Warlley Alves Colby Covington Warlley Alves
May 23, 2015 Welterweight Mike Pyle Colby Covington Colby Covington
Nov. 8, 2014 Welterweight Wagner Silva Colby Covington Colby Covington
Aug. 23, 2014 Welterweight Anying Wang Colby Covington Colby Covington