The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Basic Prediction
This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.
Leon Edwards has shown remarkable consistency in the UFC, boasting a recent win streak and a notable victory over Kamaru Usman. His striking style, though less aggressive, is precise and calculated, capitalizing on clinch striking and effective use of elbows. Edwards' evolution in wrestling, clinch work, and ground game indicates a well-rounded skill set. His kicking abilities maintain range and create openings for strikes. His ability to manage aggressive fighters will be crucial against Covington. However, his performance can be affected by pace management and cardiovascular endurance, especially against a high-volume striker like Covington.
Colby Covington is known for his ultra-aggressive style, which, though not always damaging, consistently pressures opponents. His exceptional cardio allows him to maintain a high pace, potentially overwhelming Edwards. Covington's wrestling skills, particularly his use of various takedowns and chain wrestling, make him a formidable opponent. His transition from striking to wrestling is a key aspect of his strategy. However, Covington's aggressive takedown attempts leave him vulnerable to submissions, and his predictable striking entries could be exploited by a striker of Edwards' caliber. His forward aggression might also leave him open to counters.
Leon Edwards is predicted to win, likely due to his precise striking, improved grappling, and ability to manage aggressive fighters like Covington. However, Covington's relentless pace and wrestling could challenge Edwards, especially if he can maintain pressure and avoid being countered. The fight's outcome will hinge on Edwards' ability to counter Covington's aggression with calculated striking and clinch work, while Covington must balance his aggression with caution to avoid Edwards' counters.
Stat | Leon Edwards | Colby Covington | Weight Class Average | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Main Stats | ||||
Age | 32 | 35 | 34 | |
Height | 74" | 71" | 73" | |
Reach | 74" | 72" | 74" | |
Win Percentage | 87.50% | 85.00% | 88.66% | |
Wins | 22 | 17 | ||
Losses | 3 | 4 | ||
Wins at Weight Class | 2 | 0 | ||
Losses at Weight Class | 0 | 2 | ||
Striking Stats | ||||
Striking Accuracy | 59.59% | 51.78% | 59.34% | |
Significant Striking Accuracy | 53.38% | 39.06% | 49.63% | |
Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.798 | 7.501 | 5.880 | |
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 2.796 | 4.099 | 3.552 | |
Knockdowns per Fight | 0.286 | 0.060 | 0.348 | |
Striking Impact Differential | -15.44% | 53.67% | 29.51% | |
Significant Striking Impact Differential | 6.56% | 17.33% | 17.39% | |
Striking Output Differential | -22.50% | 104.13% | 40.66% | |
Significant Striking Output Differential | 0.81% | 59.80% | 26.75% | |
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 79.14% | 52.50% | 62.25% | |
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 99.86% | 93.42% | 91.35% | |
Striking Defense Percentage | 53.82% | 55.65% | 55.59% | |
Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
Submissions per Fight | 0.343 | 0.181 | 0.247 | |
Takedowns per Fight | 1.257 | 4.046 | 2.364 | |
Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 3.771 | 8.817 | 5.546 | |
Takedown Defense | 44.62% | 38.89% | 45.87% | |
Takedown Accuracy | 33.33% | 45.89% | 40.89% | |
Head Stats | ||||
Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.611 | 2.887 | 2.264 | |
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 3.813 | 8.865 | 5.660 | |
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 1.417 | 2.005 | 1.497 | |
Body Stats | ||||
Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.644 | 0.640 | 0.849 | |
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.831 | 0.974 | 1.114 | |
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.632 | 0.733 | 0.650 | |
Leg Stats | ||||
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.541 | 0.572 | 0.438 | |
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.594 | 0.652 | 0.495 | |
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.347 | 0.314 | 0.359 | |
Clinch Stats | ||||
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.381 | 0.431 | 0.528 | |
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.469 | 0.636 | 0.663 | |
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.419 | 0.358 | 0.382 |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
March 18, 2023 | UFC Welterweight Title | Leon Edwards | Kamaru Usman | Leon Edwards | |
Aug. 20, 2022 | UFC Welterweight Title | Kamaru Usman | Leon Edwards | Leon Edwards | |
June 12, 2021 | Welterweight | Leon Edwards | Nate Diaz | Leon Edwards | |
March 13, 2021 | Welterweight | Leon Edwards | Belal Muhammad | None | |
July 20, 2019 | Welterweight | Rafael Dos Anjos | Leon Edwards | Leon Edwards | |
March 16, 2019 | Welterweight | Leon Edwards | Gunnar Nelson | Leon Edwards | |
June 23, 2018 | Welterweight | Donald Cerrone | Leon Edwards | Leon Edwards | |
March 17, 2018 | Welterweight | Leon Edwards | Peter Sobotta | Leon Edwards | |
Sept. 2, 2017 | Welterweight | Leon Edwards | Bryan Barberena | Leon Edwards | |
March 18, 2017 | Welterweight | Leon Edwards | Vicente Luque | Leon Edwards | |
Oct. 8, 2016 | Welterweight | Leon Edwards | Albert Tumenov | Leon Edwards | |
May 8, 2016 | Welterweight | Leon Edwards | Dominic Waters | Leon Edwards | |
Dec. 19, 2015 | Welterweight | Kamaru Usman | Leon Edwards | Kamaru Usman | |
July 18, 2015 | Welterweight | Leon Edwards | Pawel Pawlak | Leon Edwards | |
April 11, 2015 | Welterweight | Seth Baczynski | Leon Edwards | Leon Edwards | |
Nov. 8, 2014 | Welterweight | Claudio Silva | Leon Edwards | Claudio Silva |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
March 5, 2022 | Welterweight | Colby Covington | Jorge Masvidal | Colby Covington | |
Nov. 6, 2021 | UFC Welterweight Title | Kamaru Usman | Colby Covington | Kamaru Usman | |
Sept. 19, 2020 | Welterweight | Colby Covington | Tyron Woodley | Colby Covington | |
Dec. 14, 2019 | UFC Welterweight Title | Kamaru Usman | Colby Covington | Kamaru Usman | |
Aug. 3, 2019 | Welterweight | Colby Covington | Robbie Lawler | Colby Covington | |
June 9, 2018 | UFC Interim Welterweight Title | Rafael Dos Anjos | Colby Covington | Colby Covington | |
Oct. 28, 2017 | Welterweight | Demian Maia | Colby Covington | Colby Covington | |
June 17, 2017 | Welterweight | Dong Hyun Kim | Colby Covington | Colby Covington | |
Dec. 17, 2016 | Welterweight | Bryan Barberena | Colby Covington | Colby Covington | |
Aug. 20, 2016 | Welterweight | Colby Covington | Max Griffin | Colby Covington | |
June 18, 2016 | Welterweight | Colby Covington | Jonathan Meunier | Colby Covington | |
Dec. 12, 2015 | Welterweight | Warlley Alves | Colby Covington | Warlley Alves | |
May 23, 2015 | Welterweight | Mike Pyle | Colby Covington | Colby Covington | |
Nov. 8, 2014 | Welterweight | Wagner Silva | Colby Covington | Colby Covington | |
Aug. 23, 2014 | Welterweight | Anying Wang | Colby Covington | Colby Covington |