Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell - UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Josh Emmett by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 627.00m
Weight Class: Featherweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Josh Emmett
+165
Bryce Mitchell
6
6
14
-3.9
-195

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Analysis: Josh Emmett vs Bryce Mitchell

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Bryce Mitchell to Win

Josh Emmett's Breakdown

Josh Emmett's recent UFC performance shows a mixed bag of results, with his last two fights resulting in losses - one by submission and the other by unanimous decision. Emmett's strengths lie in his striking power and wrestling, honed at Team Alpha Male. He's known for his heavy hands and ability to deliver knockouts, as evidenced by his wins against Bektic and Johnson. However, his recent fights indicate a potential vulnerability in maintaining consistency throughout the fight, especially when faced with skilled grapplers or diverse strikers.

Bryce Mitchell's Breakdown

Bryce Mitchell, coming off a unanimous decision win against Dan Ige, boasts an impressive grappling and submission game. His record is peppered with submission wins, showing his prowess on the ground. Mitchell's strategy against Emmett will likely involve leveraging his superior wrestling and submission skills. His ability to maintain pressure and integrate striking with takedown attempts has served him well in past fights, like his win against Barboza, and will be crucial against Emmett's striking and wrestling defense.

Analysis and Key Points

Emmett's recent losses, particularly the submission loss to Rodriguez, could be a critical factor considering Mitchell's grappling strength. Emmett's striking remains a potent weapon, but his recent trend suggests a potential vulnerability against versatile fighters who can challenge him both on the feet and on the ground. Mitchell's relentless pressure and ground game might exploit these vulnerabilities. Additionally, Emmett's recent performance trend, losing 2 of his last 3 fights, indicates a possible downturn in his career trajectory.

Mitchell, on the other hand, has shown a more consistent upward trend, with his grappling and pressure fighting being particularly effective against diverse opponents. His recent win against Ige, a well-rounded fighter, further cements his capability to handle different fighting styles.

Conclusion

Considering Emmett's recent struggles, particularly against grapplers and versatile strikers, and Mitchell's consistent performance with a strong focus on grappling and pressure, WolfTicketsAI's prediction in favor of Bryce Mitchell seems well-founded. Mitchell's ability to blend striking with takedowns and control the ground game could be the key to overcoming Emmett's striking power and wrestling base.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Josh Emmett Bryce Mitchell
Main Stats
Age 38 29
Height 66" 70"
Reach 70" 70"
Win Percentage 81.82% 88.89%
Wins 19 16
Losses 4 3
Wins at Weight Class 7 7
Losses at Weight Class 2 1
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 37.82% 71.21%
Significant Striking Accuracy 36.41% 58.97%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.405 5.093
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.070 2.342
Knockdowns per Fight 0.921 0.146
Striking Impact Differential -12.85% 31.00%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -8.15% 9.00%
Striking Output Differential -14.85% 25.88%
Significant Striking Output Differential -11.23% 0.38%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 167.68% 48.28%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 180.11% 98.33%
Striking Defense Percentage 61.13% 58.42%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.084 1.610
Takedowns per Fight 0.921 3.512
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 2.429 8.488
Takedown Defense 114.29% 200.00%
Takedown Accuracy 37.93% 41.38%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.591 1.551
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 9.096 2.820
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 3.339 1.093
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.871 0.644
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.396 0.966
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.692 0.322
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.609 0.146
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.687 0.185
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.631 0.224
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.235 0.098
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.313 0.166
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.235 0.068
Josh Emmett History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
June 24, 2023 Featherweight Josh Emmett Ilia Topuria Ilia Topuria
Feb. 11, 2023 UFC Interim Featherweight Title Yair Rodriguez Josh Emmett Yair Rodriguez
June 18, 2022 Featherweight Calvin Kattar Josh Emmett Josh Emmett
Dec. 11, 2021 Featherweight Josh Emmett Dan Ige Josh Emmett
June 20, 2020 Featherweight Josh Emmett Shane Burgos Josh Emmett
July 13, 2019 Featherweight Josh Emmett Mirsad Bektic Josh Emmett
March 30, 2019 Featherweight Josh Emmett Michael Johnson Josh Emmett
Feb. 24, 2018 Featherweight Josh Emmett Jeremy Stephens Jeremy Stephens
Dec. 16, 2017 Featherweight Ricardo Lamas Josh Emmett Josh Emmett
Oct. 21, 2017 Featherweight Felipe Arantes Josh Emmett Josh Emmett
April 8, 2017 Lightweight Josh Emmett Desmond Green Desmond Green
Dec. 17, 2016 Lightweight Josh Emmett Scott Holtzman Josh Emmett
May 8, 2016 Lightweight Jon Tuck Josh Emmett Josh Emmett
Bryce Mitchell History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Sept. 23, 2023 Featherweight Bryce Mitchell Dan Ige Bryce Mitchell
Dec. 10, 2022 Featherweight Bryce Mitchell Ilia Topuria Ilia Topuria
March 5, 2022 Featherweight Edson Barboza Bryce Mitchell Bryce Mitchell
Oct. 31, 2020 Featherweight Bryce Mitchell Andre Fili Bryce Mitchell
May 9, 2020 Featherweight Bryce Mitchell Charles Rosa Bryce Mitchell
Dec. 7, 2019 Featherweight Bryce Mitchell Matt Sayles Bryce Mitchell
March 23, 2019 Featherweight Bryce Mitchell Bobby Moffett Bryce Mitchell
July 6, 2018 Featherweight Tyler Diamond Bryce Mitchell Bryce Mitchell