The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Basic Prediction
This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.
Irene Aldana, a skilled fighter with a UFC history marked by several notable victories, primarily through KO/TKO, demonstrates her capability in the stand-up game. Her recent loss to Amanda Nunes, while unanimous, showed resilience and the ability to withstand pressure against a top-tier opponent. Aldana's statistics reveal a strong tendency towards striking, with significant numbers in head strikes landed per minute and a notable striking accuracy. Her ability to land significant strikes and maintain a high striking output differential indicates her prowess in controlling the pace and dynamics of a fight.
Karol Rosa, on the other hand, shows a balanced mix of striking and grappling. Her recent win over Yana Santos at Women's Featherweight by split decision and her overall UFC history suggest a tendency to go the distance in fights, relying on decisions rather than finishes. Rosa's stats, particularly in takedowns per fight and striking accuracy, illustrate her as a versatile fighter who can handle various aspects of MMA effectively. However, her loss to Norma Dumont by unanimous decision in her previous fight might indicate some vulnerability against opponents with strong tactical acumen.
Considering the statistics and recent performances of both fighters, Aldana's striking prowess and experience against high-caliber opponents seem to give her the edge in this matchup. While Rosa's well-rounded skill set and endurance make her a formidable opponent, Aldana's ability to control the fight with her striking and her proven track record of finishing fights suggest she has the upper hand in this matchup, aligning with WolfTicketsAI's prediction.
Stat | Irene Aldana | Karol Rosa | Weight Class Average | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Main Stats | ||||
Age | 35 | 28 | 33 | |
Height | 69" | 65" | 67" | |
Reach | 68" | 67" | 67" | |
Win Percentage | 66.67% | 77.27% | 74.10% | |
Wins | 15 | 17 | ||
Losses | 7 | 6 | ||
Wins at Weight Class | 6 | 5 | ||
Losses at Weight Class | 4 | 1 | ||
Striking Stats | ||||
Striking Accuracy | 43.06% | 66.45% | 48.15% | |
Significant Striking Accuracy | 39.11% | 55.40% | 41.28% | |
Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.771 | 9.558 | 5.281 | |
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.858 | 5.433 | 3.584 | |
Knockdowns per Fight | 0.257 | 0.250 | 0.142 | |
Striking Impact Differential | -15.92% | 44.75% | -0.72% | |
Significant Striking Impact Differential | -12.42% | 19.00% | 1.05% | |
Striking Output Differential | -29.25% | 52.75% | 0.09% | |
Significant Striking Output Differential | -23.67% | 25.25% | 2.15% | |
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 148.07% | 44.90% | 71.25% | |
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 171.56% | 72.85% | 96.96% | |
Striking Defense Percentage | 59.35% | 48.72% | 44.93% | |
Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
Submissions per Fight | 0.257 | 0.000 | 0.434 | |
Takedowns per Fight | 0.171 | 1.375 | 0.917 | |
Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 0.343 | 2.875 | 2.728 | |
Takedown Defense | 32.00% | 46.15% | 70.26% | |
Takedown Accuracy | 50.00% | 47.83% | 25.76% | |
Head Stats | ||||
Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 3.277 | 3.342 | 2.111 | |
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 10.007 | 7.192 | 5.582 | |
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 3.631 | 2.100 | 1.920 | |
Body Stats | ||||
Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.645 | 0.908 | 0.884 | |
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.165 | 1.075 | 1.203 | |
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 1.153 | 1.142 | 0.850 | |
Leg Stats | ||||
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.936 | 1.183 | 0.589 | |
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 1.250 | 1.542 | 0.754 | |
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.925 | 0.925 | 0.580 | |
Clinch Stats | ||||
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.303 | 0.733 | 0.605 | |
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.405 | 0.900 | 0.787 | |
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.234 | 0.667 | 0.507 |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
June 10, 2023 | UFC Women's Bantamweight Title | Amanda Nunes | Irene Aldana | Amanda Nunes | |
Sept. 10, 2022 | Catch Weight | Irene Aldana | Macy Chiasson | Irene Aldana | |
July 10, 2021 | Women's Bantamweight | Irene Aldana | Yana Santos | Irene Aldana | |
Oct. 3, 2020 | Women's Bantamweight | Holly Holm | Irene Aldana | Holly Holm | |
Dec. 14, 2019 | Women's Bantamweight | Ketlen Vieira | Irene Aldana | Irene Aldana | |
Sept. 21, 2019 | Women's Bantamweight | Irene Aldana | Vanessa Melo | Irene Aldana | |
July 20, 2019 | Women's Bantamweight | Raquel Pennington | Irene Aldana | Raquel Pennington | |
May 11, 2019 | Women's Bantamweight | Irene Aldana | Bethe Correia | Irene Aldana | |
Sept. 8, 2018 | Women's Bantamweight | Irene Aldana | Lucie Pudilova | Irene Aldana | |
Jan. 14, 2018 | Women's Bantamweight | Talita Bernardo | Irene Aldana | Irene Aldana | |
April 8, 2017 | Women's Bantamweight | Katlyn Cerminara | Irene Aldana | Katlyn Cerminara | |
Dec. 17, 2016 | Women's Bantamweight | Leslie Smith | Irene Aldana | Leslie Smith |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
July 1, 2023 | Women's Featherweight | Yana Santos | Karol Rosa | Karol Rosa | |
April 22, 2023 | Women's Featherweight | Karol Rosa | Norma Dumont | Norma Dumont | |
Oct. 22, 2022 | Women's Bantamweight | Karol Rosa | Lina Lansberg | Karol Rosa | |
March 26, 2022 | Women's Bantamweight | Sara McMann | Karol Rosa | Sara McMann | |
Oct. 2, 2021 | Women's Bantamweight | Bethe Correia | Karol Rosa | Karol Rosa | |
Feb. 6, 2021 | Women's Bantamweight | Karol Rosa | Joselyne Edwards | Karol Rosa | |
July 11, 2020 | Women's Bantamweight | Karol Rosa | Vanessa Melo | Karol Rosa | |
Aug. 31, 2019 | Women's Bantamweight | Karol Rosa | Lara Procopio | Karol Rosa |