Irene Aldana vs. Karol Rosa - UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Irene Aldana by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 627.00m
Weight Class: Women's Bantamweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Irene Aldana
24
20
12.8
-197
Karol Rosa
3
+165

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Analysis: Irene Aldana vs Karol Rosa

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Irene Aldana to Win

Irene Aldana's Breakdown

Irene Aldana, a skilled fighter with a UFC history marked by several notable victories, primarily through KO/TKO, demonstrates her capability in the stand-up game. Her recent loss to Amanda Nunes, while unanimous, showed resilience and the ability to withstand pressure against a top-tier opponent. Aldana's statistics reveal a strong tendency towards striking, with significant numbers in head strikes landed per minute and a notable striking accuracy. Her ability to land significant strikes and maintain a high striking output differential indicates her prowess in controlling the pace and dynamics of a fight.

Karol Rosa's Breakdown

Karol Rosa, on the other hand, shows a balanced mix of striking and grappling. Her recent win over Yana Santos at Women's Featherweight by split decision and her overall UFC history suggest a tendency to go the distance in fights, relying on decisions rather than finishes. Rosa's stats, particularly in takedowns per fight and striking accuracy, illustrate her as a versatile fighter who can handle various aspects of MMA effectively. However, her loss to Norma Dumont by unanimous decision in her previous fight might indicate some vulnerability against opponents with strong tactical acumen.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Aldana's striking ability, especially in head strikes, might be a critical factor in this fight.
  • Rosa's versatility in both striking and grappling presents a well-rounded challenge.
  • Aldana's experience against top-tier opponents like Nunes could be advantageous.
  • Rosa's ability to go the distance in fights suggests good endurance but might lack the finishing power seen in Aldana's record.

Conclusion

Considering the statistics and recent performances of both fighters, Aldana's striking prowess and experience against high-caliber opponents seem to give her the edge in this matchup. While Rosa's well-rounded skill set and endurance make her a formidable opponent, Aldana's ability to control the fight with her striking and her proven track record of finishing fights suggest she has the upper hand in this matchup, aligning with WolfTicketsAI's prediction.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Irene Aldana Karol Rosa
Main Stats
Age 35 28
Height 69" 65"
Reach 68" 67"
Win Percentage 66.67% 77.27%
Wins 15 17
Losses 7 6
Wins at Weight Class 6 5
Losses at Weight Class 4 1
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 43.06% 66.45%
Significant Striking Accuracy 39.11% 55.40%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.771 9.558
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.858 5.433
Knockdowns per Fight 0.257 0.250
Striking Impact Differential -15.92% 44.75%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -12.42% 19.00%
Striking Output Differential -29.25% 52.75%
Significant Striking Output Differential -23.67% 25.25%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 148.07% 44.90%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 171.56% 72.85%
Striking Defense Percentage 59.35% 48.72%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.257 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 0.171 1.375
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 0.343 2.875
Takedown Defense 32.00% 46.15%
Takedown Accuracy 50.00% 47.83%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 3.277 3.342
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 10.007 7.192
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 3.631 2.100
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.645 0.908
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.165 1.075
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.153 1.142
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.936 1.183
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 1.250 1.542
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.925 0.925
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.303 0.733
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.405 0.900
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.234 0.667
Irene Aldana History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
June 10, 2023 UFC Women's Bantamweight Title Amanda Nunes Irene Aldana Amanda Nunes
Sept. 10, 2022 Catch Weight Irene Aldana Macy Chiasson Irene Aldana
July 10, 2021 Women's Bantamweight Irene Aldana Yana Santos Irene Aldana
Oct. 3, 2020 Women's Bantamweight Holly Holm Irene Aldana Holly Holm
Dec. 14, 2019 Women's Bantamweight Ketlen Vieira Irene Aldana Irene Aldana
Sept. 21, 2019 Women's Bantamweight Irene Aldana Vanessa Melo Irene Aldana
July 20, 2019 Women's Bantamweight Raquel Pennington Irene Aldana Raquel Pennington
May 11, 2019 Women's Bantamweight Irene Aldana Bethe Correia Irene Aldana
Sept. 8, 2018 Women's Bantamweight Irene Aldana Lucie Pudilova Irene Aldana
Jan. 14, 2018 Women's Bantamweight Talita Bernardo Irene Aldana Irene Aldana
April 8, 2017 Women's Bantamweight Katlyn Cerminara Irene Aldana Katlyn Cerminara
Dec. 17, 2016 Women's Bantamweight Leslie Smith Irene Aldana Leslie Smith
Karol Rosa History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
July 1, 2023 Women's Featherweight Yana Santos Karol Rosa Karol Rosa
April 22, 2023 Women's Featherweight Karol Rosa Norma Dumont Norma Dumont
Oct. 22, 2022 Women's Bantamweight Karol Rosa Lina Lansberg Karol Rosa
March 26, 2022 Women's Bantamweight Sara McMann Karol Rosa Sara McMann
Oct. 2, 2021 Women's Bantamweight Bethe Correia Karol Rosa Karol Rosa
Feb. 6, 2021 Women's Bantamweight Karol Rosa Joselyne Edwards Karol Rosa
July 11, 2020 Women's Bantamweight Karol Rosa Vanessa Melo Karol Rosa
Aug. 31, 2019 Women's Bantamweight Karol Rosa Lara Procopio Karol Rosa