Andre Fili vs. Lucas Almeida - UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Andre Fili by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 627.00m
Weight Class: Featherweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Andre Fili
28
16
19
14.9
-180
Lucas Almeida
+151

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Analysis: Andre Fili vs Lucas Almeida

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Andre Fili to Win

Andre Fili's Breakdown

Andre Fili, with a UFC history marked by alternating wins and losses, displays a diverse skill set. Key strengths include his ability to switch stances, offering a dynamic challenge to opponents, and a strong jab that can control distance and set up power shots. His combination of high kicks with boxing techniques makes him a formidable striker. However, vulnerabilities lie in his predictability and a potential weakness in clinch work. Recent losses, especially the KO/TKO by Joanderson Brito, raise concerns about his striking defense. Fili's recent win percentage in the UFC is 0.33, signaling a possible downward trend in his career.

Lucas Almeida's Breakdown

Lucas Almeida, comparatively inexperienced in the UFC with only two fights, shows promise but lacks a detailed analysis of his fighting style. His recent loss to Pat Sabatini by submission and a win by KO/TKO against Michael Trizano highlight a mixed performance. Almeida's limited UFC history makes it challenging to fully assess his capabilities and strategies against a versatile striker like Fili. His recent win percentage of 0.33 in the UFC, identical to Fili's, suggests he's still finding his footing in the promotion.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Fili's experience and varied skill set, including effective stance switching and a strong jab, give him an edge. However, his recent performances suggest vulnerabilities, particularly in striking defense.
  • Almeida's limited UFC history makes him somewhat of an unknown quantity. His recent performances indicate potential but also expose areas for improvement, especially in grappling defense.
  • Both fighters have a recent win rate of 33% in the UFC, implying they are at a critical point in their careers.

Conclusion

Andre Fili's experience and striking versatility position him as the favorite in this matchup, as predicted by WolfTicketsAI. However, his recent performances suggest potential vulnerabilities that Almeida could exploit. Almeida's limited UFC history presents both a challenge in assessing his full potential and an opportunity for him to surprise. This fight could be pivotal for both fighters in establishing their trajectories in the UFC.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Andre Fili Lucas Almeida
Main Stats
Age 33 32
Height 71" 71"
Reach 74" 71"
Win Percentage 68.75% 87.50%
Wins 23 14
Losses 10 3
Wins at Weight Class 10 1
Losses at Weight Class 10 1
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 41.55% 55.11%
Significant Striking Accuracy 37.31% 49.36%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.668 5.475
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.829 4.346
Knockdowns per Fight 0.337 1.693
Striking Impact Differential -10.70% -16.50%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -3.40% 9.50%
Striking Output Differential 11.85% 2.50%
Significant Striking Output Differential 19.50% 29.50%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 97.31% 42.27%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 114.30% 50.65%
Striking Defense Percentage 51.42% 40.21%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.269 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 2.222 0.000
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 4.645 0.000
Takedown Defense 44.68% 200.00%
Takedown Accuracy 47.83% 0.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.756 1.806
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 8.770 5.475
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.329 2.371
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.552 0.960
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.835 1.298
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.763 0.734
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.521 1.580
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.655 2.032
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 1.041 0.169
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.193 0.056
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.350 0.056
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.166 0.169
Andre Fili History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
July 22, 2023 Featherweight Nathaniel Wood Andre Fili Nathaniel Wood
Sept. 17, 2022 Featherweight Andre Fili Bill Algeo Andre Fili
April 30, 2022 Featherweight Andre Fili Joanderson Brito Joanderson Brito
June 26, 2021 Featherweight Andre Fili Daniel Pineda None
Oct. 31, 2020 Featherweight Bryce Mitchell Andre Fili Bryce Mitchell
June 13, 2020 Featherweight Andre Fili Charles Jourdain Andre Fili
Jan. 18, 2020 Featherweight Andre Fili Sodiq Yusuff Sodiq Yusuff
July 13, 2019 Featherweight Andre Fili Sheymon Moraes Andre Fili
Feb. 17, 2019 Featherweight Andre Fili Myles Jury Andre Fili
Aug. 25, 2018 Featherweight Michael Johnson Andre Fili Michael Johnson
Jan. 27, 2018 Featherweight Dennis Bermudez Andre Fili Andre Fili
Oct. 21, 2017 Featherweight Artem Lobov Andre Fili Andre Fili
July 29, 2017 Featherweight Andre Fili Calvin Kattar Calvin Kattar
Oct. 1, 2016 Featherweight Hacran Dias Andre Fili Andre Fili
April 23, 2016 Featherweight Yair Rodriguez Andre Fili Yair Rodriguez
Nov. 21, 2015 Featherweight Gabriel Benitez Andre Fili Andre Fili
March 21, 2015 Featherweight Godofredo Pepey Andre Fili Godofredo Pepey
Oct. 25, 2014 Featherweight Felipe Arantes Andre Fili Andre Fili
April 26, 2014 Featherweight Max Holloway Andre Fili Max Holloway
Oct. 19, 2013 Featherweight Jeremy Larsen Andre Fili Andre Fili
Lucas Almeida History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
June 17, 2023 Featherweight Pat Sabatini Lucas Almeida Pat Sabatini
June 4, 2022 Featherweight Michael Trizano Lucas Almeida Lucas Almeida