Alonzo Menifield vs. Dustin Jacoby - UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Alonzo Menifield by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 627.00m
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Alonzo Menifield
7
+200
Dustin Jacoby
23
3
7.7
-250

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Analysis: Alonzo Menifield vs Dustin Jacoby

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Dustin Jacoby to Win

Alonzo Menifield's Breakdown

Alonzo Menifield, with a record of 14 wins and 3 losses, shows notable strength in striking, particularly with a high number of knockdowns per fight (0.6623) and strong head strikes landed per minute (3.1788). His recent performance is commendable, maintaining a 100% win rate in his last few fights. However, concerns arise from his past losses via KO/TKO, indicating potential vulnerabilities in his defense, especially given the fierce competition in the Light Heavyweight division.

Dustin Jacoby's Breakdown

Dustin Jacoby, possessing a record of 19 wins and 7 losses, demonstrates a balanced skill set with a significant striking output differential (18.5833) and a high striking impact differential (9.5000). His recent fights show a mixed bag of results, with a recent win rate of 33%. Jacoby's ability to land effective strikes while maintaining a strong defense (takedown defense ratio of 0.8889) positions him as a formidable opponent in the Light Heavyweight division.

Analysis and Key Points

The matchup between Menifield and Jacoby is a clash of striking prowess. Menifield's aggressive knockout power is countered by Jacoby's balanced striking and defense technique. The key factor could be Jacoby's superior experience and his ability to absorb and respond to high-impact strikes. Menifield's past losses due to KO/TKO are a crucial point, as Jacoby's striking precision could exploit this weakness.

Conclusion

Considering the statistical analysis and recent performances, Dustin Jacoby's well-rounded striking and defensive capabilities, along with his experience, give him the edge in this fight. While Menifield's knockout power is a threat, Jacoby's ability to handle high-pressure fights and his recent winning momentum support WolfTicketsAI's prediction for a Jacoby victory.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Alonzo Menifield Dustin Jacoby
Main Stats
Age 36 35
Height 72" 75"
Reach 76" 76"
Win Percentage 82.35% 73.08%
Wins 15 19
Losses 3 8
Wins at Weight Class 7 7
Losses at Weight Class 4 3
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 65.27% 46.57%
Significant Striking Accuracy 58.63% 43.95%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.166 6.233
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.786 5.521
Knockdowns per Fight 0.662 0.475
Striking Impact Differential 1.55% 9.50%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 4.82% 12.25%
Striking Output Differential -6.27% 15.17%
Significant Striking Output Differential -2.27% 18.58%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 71.58% 106.09%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 93.29% 116.62%
Striking Defense Percentage 52.46% 59.63%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.331 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 0.662 0.356
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 1.821 1.780
Takedown Defense 29.03% 88.89%
Takedown Accuracy 36.36% 20.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 3.179 3.678
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 5.806 10.149
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.501 2.927
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.309 0.799
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.353 1.187
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.435 0.601
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.298 1.044
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.298 1.226
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.265 0.831
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.563 0.316
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.817 0.483
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.137 0.229
Alonzo Menifield History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
July 8, 2023 Light Heavyweight Jimmy Crute Alonzo Menifield Alonzo Menifield
Feb. 11, 2023 Light Heavyweight Jimmy Crute Alonzo Menifield None
Oct. 15, 2022 Light Heavyweight Misha Cirkunov Alonzo Menifield Alonzo Menifield
June 4, 2022 Light Heavyweight Alonzo Menifield Askar Mozharov Alonzo Menifield
Dec. 4, 2021 Light Heavyweight Alonzo Menifield William Knight William Knight
Aug. 7, 2021 Light Heavyweight Alonzo Menifield Ed Herman Alonzo Menifield
March 27, 2021 Light Heavyweight Alonzo Menifield Fabio Cherant Alonzo Menifield
Sept. 5, 2020 Light Heavyweight Ovince Saint Preux Alonzo Menifield Ovince Saint Preux
June 6, 2020 Light Heavyweight Alonzo Menifield Devin Clark Devin Clark
June 29, 2019 Light Heavyweight Alonzo Menifield Paul Craig Alonzo Menifield
Jan. 19, 2019 Light Heavyweight Alonzo Menifield Vinicius Moreira Alonzo Menifield
Dustin Jacoby History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Aug. 5, 2023 Light Heavyweight Dustin Jacoby Kennedy Nzechukwu Dustin Jacoby
April 15, 2023 Light Heavyweight Dustin Jacoby Azamat Murzakanov Azamat Murzakanov
Oct. 29, 2022 Light Heavyweight Dustin Jacoby Khalil Rountree Jr. Khalil Rountree Jr.
July 16, 2022 Light Heavyweight Dustin Jacoby Da Woon Jung Dustin Jacoby
March 5, 2022 Light Heavyweight Dustin Jacoby Michal Oleksiejczuk Dustin Jacoby
Nov. 6, 2021 Light Heavyweight Dustin Jacoby John Allan Dustin Jacoby
Aug. 28, 2021 Light Heavyweight Dustin Jacoby Darren Stewart Dustin Jacoby
May 1, 2021 Light Heavyweight Ion Cutelaba Dustin Jacoby None
Feb. 27, 2021 Light Heavyweight Dustin Jacoby Maxim Grishin Dustin Jacoby
Oct. 31, 2020 Light Heavyweight Dustin Jacoby Justin Ledet Dustin Jacoby
Jan. 28, 2012 Middleweight Chris Camozzi Dustin Jacoby Chris Camozzi
Oct. 29, 2011 Middleweight Dustin Jacoby Clifford Starks Clifford Starks