The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Basic Prediction
This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.
Alexandre Pantoja, the current flyweight champ, has proven his mettle with a solid UFC record, including two victories over Brandon Moreno, the former champ. His aggressive striking, although technically unrefined, is complemented by outstanding grappling skills, particularly in taking and controlling the back. Pantoja's ability to adapt in striking exchanges and his high-level jiu-jitsu make him a formidable opponent. However, his striking approach could be a double-edged sword, potentially exposing him to counters. His recent UFC journey showcases a fighter with consistent performance and an inclination for finishes, primarily through submissions.
Brandon Royval, known for his dynamic fighting style, has shown proficiency in both striking and grappling. His recent UFC run includes impressive wins, highlighting his ability to finish fights, notably through submissions. Royval's striking, while aggressive, needs to be strategically balanced to avoid being countered by Pantoja's grappling prowess. Effective clinch work and the ability to handle pressure will be crucial for Royval. His mental toughness and adaptability, as demonstrated in past fights, could play a significant role in this matchup.
Pantoja's aggressive striking, combined with elite grappling, poses a significant threat to Royval. Pantoja's propensity to engage in striking exchanges, despite the technical flaws, has worked in his favor due to his tenacity and durability. Royval, while skilled in scrambles and submissions, must be wary of Pantoja's ability to capitalize on grappling exchanges. Royval's striking and clinch work could be key, but he must avoid getting trapped in Pantoja's grappling game.
Given Pantoja's track record, especially his previous victory over Royval and superior grappling credentials, WolfTicketsAI's prediction leans convincingly towards Pantoja. His ability to combine gritty striking with high-level jiu-jitsu makes him a formidable champion. Royval's dynamic style and resilience pose a threat, but overcoming Pantoja's grappling and striking pressure will be a significant challenge.
Stat | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval | Weight Class Average | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Main Stats | ||||
Age | 33 | 31 | 32 | |
Height | 65" | 69" | 66" | |
Reach | 67" | 68" | 69" | |
Win Percentage | 83.87% | 71.43% | 81.84% | |
Wins | 27 | 15 | ||
Losses | 5 | 7 | ||
Wins at Weight Class | 1 | 0 | ||
Losses at Weight Class | 0 | 0 | ||
Striking Stats | ||||
Striking Accuracy | 52.29% | 46.22% | 51.99% | |
Significant Striking Accuracy | 48.09% | 38.05% | 45.96% | |
Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.428 | 5.129 | 4.803 | |
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.410 | 3.449 | 3.648 | |
Knockdowns per Fight | 0.413 | 0.995 | 0.588 | |
Striking Impact Differential | 7.54% | 5.43% | 5.46% | |
Significant Striking Impact Differential | 6.69% | 5.29% | 3.40% | |
Striking Output Differential | 15.46% | 26.00% | 10.97% | |
Significant Striking Output Differential | 14.46% | 24.29% | 8.80% | |
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 78.20% | 54.31% | 84.83% | |
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 92.20% | 77.56% | 108.10% | |
Striking Defense Percentage | 51.62% | 50.42% | 53.91% | |
Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
Submissions per Fight | 1.032 | 2.321 | 1.310 | |
Takedowns per Fight | 1.754 | 0.663 | 1.545 | |
Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 3.922 | 0.663 | 3.313 | |
Takedown Defense | 50.00% | 154.55% | 67.38% | |
Takedown Accuracy | 44.74% | 100.00% | 52.15% | |
Head Stats | ||||
Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 2.931 | 2.167 | 2.516 | |
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 7.114 | 7.119 | 6.543 | |
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 3.096 | 1.614 | 2.314 | |
Body Stats | ||||
Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.901 | 0.796 | 0.736 | |
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.300 | 1.216 | 1.050 | |
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.413 | 0.332 | 0.492 | |
Leg Stats | ||||
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.578 | 0.486 | 0.397 | |
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.757 | 0.730 | 0.519 | |
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.303 | 0.685 | 0.513 | |
Clinch Stats | ||||
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.495 | 0.155 | 0.270 | |
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.695 | 0.199 | 0.413 | |
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.330 | 0.111 | 0.229 |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
July 8, 2023 | UFC Flyweight Title | Brandon Moreno | Alexandre Pantoja | Alexandre Pantoja | |
July 30, 2022 | Flyweight | Alexandre Pantoja | Alex Perez | Alexandre Pantoja | |
Aug. 21, 2021 | Flyweight | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval | Alexandre Pantoja | |
Feb. 6, 2021 | Flyweight | Alexandre Pantoja | Manel Kape | Alexandre Pantoja | |
July 18, 2020 | Flyweight | Alexandre Pantoja | Askar Askarov | Askar Askarov | |
Dec. 21, 2019 | Flyweight | Alexandre Pantoja | Matt Schnell | Alexandre Pantoja | |
July 27, 2019 | Flyweight | Alexandre Pantoja | Deiveson Figueiredo | Deiveson Figueiredo | |
April 13, 2019 | Flyweight | Wilson Reis | Alexandre Pantoja | Alexandre Pantoja | |
Nov. 17, 2018 | Flyweight | Alexandre Pantoja | Yuta Sasaki | Alexandre Pantoja | |
May 19, 2018 | Flyweight | Brandon Moreno | Alexandre Pantoja | Alexandre Pantoja | |
Jan. 20, 2018 | Flyweight | Dustin Ortiz | Alexandre Pantoja | Dustin Ortiz | |
July 16, 2017 | Flyweight | Alexandre Pantoja | Neil Seery | Alexandre Pantoja | |
Jan. 28, 2017 | Flyweight | Alexandre Pantoja | Eric Shelton | Alexandre Pantoja |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
April 15, 2023 | Flyweight | Brandon Royval | Matheus Nicolau | Brandon Royval | |
May 7, 2022 | Flyweight | Brandon Royval | Matt Schnell | Brandon Royval | |
Jan. 15, 2022 | Flyweight | Brandon Royval | Rogerio Bontorin | Brandon Royval | |
Aug. 21, 2021 | Flyweight | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval | Alexandre Pantoja | |
Nov. 21, 2020 | Flyweight | Brandon Moreno | Brandon Royval | Brandon Moreno | |
Sept. 26, 2020 | Flyweight | Kai Kara-France | Brandon Royval | Brandon Royval | |
May 30, 2020 | Flyweight | Tim Elliott | Brandon Royval | Brandon Royval |