Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval - UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Alexandre Pantoja by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 627.00m
Weight Class: Flyweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Alexandre Pantoja
21
11
5
15.4
-176
Brandon Royval
+146

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Analysis: Alexandre Pantoja vs Brandon Royval

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Alexandre Pantoja to Win

Alexandre Pantoja's Breakdown

Alexandre Pantoja, the current flyweight champ, has proven his mettle with a solid UFC record, including two victories over Brandon Moreno, the former champ. His aggressive striking, although technically unrefined, is complemented by outstanding grappling skills, particularly in taking and controlling the back. Pantoja's ability to adapt in striking exchanges and his high-level jiu-jitsu make him a formidable opponent. However, his striking approach could be a double-edged sword, potentially exposing him to counters. His recent UFC journey showcases a fighter with consistent performance and an inclination for finishes, primarily through submissions.

Brandon Royval's Breakdown

Brandon Royval, known for his dynamic fighting style, has shown proficiency in both striking and grappling. His recent UFC run includes impressive wins, highlighting his ability to finish fights, notably through submissions. Royval's striking, while aggressive, needs to be strategically balanced to avoid being countered by Pantoja's grappling prowess. Effective clinch work and the ability to handle pressure will be crucial for Royval. His mental toughness and adaptability, as demonstrated in past fights, could play a significant role in this matchup.

Analysis and Key Points

Pantoja's aggressive striking, combined with elite grappling, poses a significant threat to Royval. Pantoja's propensity to engage in striking exchanges, despite the technical flaws, has worked in his favor due to his tenacity and durability. Royval, while skilled in scrambles and submissions, must be wary of Pantoja's ability to capitalize on grappling exchanges. Royval's striking and clinch work could be key, but he must avoid getting trapped in Pantoja's grappling game.

Conclusion

Given Pantoja's track record, especially his previous victory over Royval and superior grappling credentials, WolfTicketsAI's prediction leans convincingly towards Pantoja. His ability to combine gritty striking with high-level jiu-jitsu makes him a formidable champion. Royval's dynamic style and resilience pose a threat, but overcoming Pantoja's grappling and striking pressure will be a significant challenge.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Alexandre Pantoja Brandon Royval
Main Stats
Age 33 31
Height 65" 69"
Reach 67" 68"
Win Percentage 83.87% 71.43%
Wins 27 15
Losses 5 7
Wins at Weight Class 1 0
Losses at Weight Class 0 0
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 52.29% 46.22%
Significant Striking Accuracy 48.09% 38.05%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.428 5.129
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.410 3.449
Knockdowns per Fight 0.413 0.995
Striking Impact Differential 7.54% 5.43%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 6.69% 5.29%
Striking Output Differential 15.46% 26.00%
Significant Striking Output Differential 14.46% 24.29%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 78.20% 54.31%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 92.20% 77.56%
Striking Defense Percentage 51.62% 50.42%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 1.032 2.321
Takedowns per Fight 1.754 0.663
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 3.922 0.663
Takedown Defense 50.00% 154.55%
Takedown Accuracy 44.74% 100.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.931 2.167
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 7.114 7.119
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 3.096 1.614
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.901 0.796
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.300 1.216
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.413 0.332
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.578 0.486
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.757 0.730
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.303 0.685
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.495 0.155
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.695 0.199
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.330 0.111
Alexandre Pantoja History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
July 8, 2023 UFC Flyweight Title Brandon Moreno Alexandre Pantoja Alexandre Pantoja
July 30, 2022 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Alex Perez Alexandre Pantoja
Aug. 21, 2021 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Brandon Royval Alexandre Pantoja
Feb. 6, 2021 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Manel Kape Alexandre Pantoja
July 18, 2020 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Askar Askarov Askar Askarov
Dec. 21, 2019 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Matt Schnell Alexandre Pantoja
July 27, 2019 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Deiveson Figueiredo Deiveson Figueiredo
April 13, 2019 Flyweight Wilson Reis Alexandre Pantoja Alexandre Pantoja
Nov. 17, 2018 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Yuta Sasaki Alexandre Pantoja
May 19, 2018 Flyweight Brandon Moreno Alexandre Pantoja Alexandre Pantoja
Jan. 20, 2018 Flyweight Dustin Ortiz Alexandre Pantoja Dustin Ortiz
July 16, 2017 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Neil Seery Alexandre Pantoja
Jan. 28, 2017 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Eric Shelton Alexandre Pantoja
Brandon Royval History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
April 15, 2023 Flyweight Brandon Royval Matheus Nicolau Brandon Royval
May 7, 2022 Flyweight Brandon Royval Matt Schnell Brandon Royval
Jan. 15, 2022 Flyweight Brandon Royval Rogerio Bontorin Brandon Royval
Aug. 21, 2021 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Brandon Royval Alexandre Pantoja
Nov. 21, 2020 Flyweight Brandon Moreno Brandon Royval Brandon Moreno
Sept. 26, 2020 Flyweight Kai Kara-France Brandon Royval Brandon Royval
May 30, 2020 Flyweight Tim Elliott Brandon Royval Brandon Royval