Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall - UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: New York City, New York, USA
Elevation: 10.00m
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Sergei Pavlovich
24
11
16
28.0
-105
Tom Aspinall
-115

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Fighter Profiles

Sergei Pavlovich

  • Record: 18 Wins, 1 Loss.
  • UFC Career: Strong record with multiple KO/TKO wins. Notable for his striking power.
  • Recent Performance: Dominant victories, primarily through KO/TKO. High striking impact and knockdown rates.

Tom Aspinall

  • Record: 13 Wins, 3 Losses.
  • UFC Career: Impressive start with consecutive wins, including Performance of the Night awards.
  • Recent Performance: Mixed results with a loss due to a knee injury, but a strong comeback with a TKO win.

WolfTicketsAI Prediction: Pavlovich to Win

Analysis Supporting Prediction

  1. Striking Power: Pavlovich's knockdowns per fight and striking impact differential are significantly higher. This indicates a more potent striking game, crucial in the heavyweight division.
  2. Recent Momentum: Pavlovich's recent string of KO/TKO victories demonstrates his ability to finish fights decisively.
  3. Aspinall's Injury Concerns: Despite a recent win, Aspinall's TKO loss due to a knee injury might be a factor. Injuries in heavyweights can be particularly impactful given the division's physical demands.

Key Heuristics

  • KO/TKO Losses: Aspinall's recent TKO loss, even if due to injury, might affect his performance, especially against a heavy hitter like Pavlovich.
  • Fight History: Both fighters have a solid number of UFC fights, giving enough data to support the prediction.
  • Weight Class Consistency: Both fighters have been consistent in the heavyweight division, ensuring a fair comparison of stats.

Additional Factors

  • Career Trajectory: Neither fighter shows a downward trend in their recent UFC fights, maintaining a positive career trajectory.
  • Fight Cancellation History: Their previously scheduled fight was canceled, adding a layer of unpredictability to this matchup.

Conclusion

Sergei Pavlovich, with his remarkable knockout power and momentum from consecutive KO/TKO victories, is predicted to have the advantage against Tom Aspinall. Pavlovich's higher striking impact and knockdown rates, coupled with Aspinall's recent injury concerns, tilt the odds in his favor. While Aspinall has shown resilience and skill in his UFC career, Pavlovich's recent performance and power in the heavyweight division position him as the predicted victor in this eagerly anticipated bout for the Interim UFC Heavyweight Championship.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Sergei Pavlovich Tom Aspinall
Main Stats
Age 31 30
Height 75" 77"
Reach 84" 78"
Win Percentage 94.74% 81.25%
Wins 18 14
Losses 2 3
Wins at Weight Class 0 0
Losses at Weight Class 0 0
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 50.33% 67.84%
Significant Striking Accuracy 49.15% 66.31%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 9.138 8.333
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 8.717 7.654
Knockdowns per Fight 6.313 2.778
Striking Impact Differential 10.86% 12.00%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 10.43% 11.00%
Striking Output Differential 18.29% 8.57%
Significant Striking Output Differential 18.00% 7.43%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 64.47% 65.19%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 66.90% 70.97%
Striking Defense Percentage 57.40% 65.19%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.000 1.852
Takedowns per Fight 0.000 3.704
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 1.804 3.704
Takedown Defense 33.33% 100.00%
Takedown Accuracy 0.00% 100.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 8.116 5.185
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 16.713 9.012
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.224 1.235
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.541 1.111
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.962 1.173
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.902 0.926
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.060 1.358
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.060 1.358
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 1.202 0.741
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 1.082 1.049
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 2.044 1.482
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.481 0.185
Sergei Pavlovich History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
April 22, 2023 Heavyweight Sergei Pavlovich Curtis Blaydes Sergei Pavlovich
Dec. 3, 2022 Heavyweight Tai Tuivasa Sergei Pavlovich Sergei Pavlovich
July 30, 2022 Heavyweight Derrick Lewis Sergei Pavlovich Sergei Pavlovich
March 19, 2022 Heavyweight Shamil Abdurakhimov Sergei Pavlovich Sergei Pavlovich
Oct. 26, 2019 Heavyweight Maurice Greene Sergei Pavlovich Sergei Pavlovich
April 20, 2019 Heavyweight Sergei Pavlovich Marcelo Golm Sergei Pavlovich
Nov. 24, 2018 Heavyweight Alistair Overeem Sergei Pavlovich Alistair Overeem
Tom Aspinall History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
July 22, 2023 Heavyweight Tom Aspinall Marcin Tybura Tom Aspinall
July 23, 2022 Heavyweight Curtis Blaydes Tom Aspinall Curtis Blaydes
March 19, 2022 Heavyweight Alexander Volkov Tom Aspinall Tom Aspinall
Sept. 4, 2021 Heavyweight Tom Aspinall Serghei Spivac Tom Aspinall
Feb. 20, 2021 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Tom Aspinall Tom Aspinall
Oct. 10, 2020 Heavyweight Tom Aspinall Alan Baudot Tom Aspinall
July 25, 2020 Heavyweight Tom Aspinall Jake Collier Tom Aspinall