Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint Denis - UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Benoit Saint Denis by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: New York City, New York, USA
Elevation: 10.00m
Weight Class: Lightweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Matt Frevola
+175
Benoit Saint Denis
20
2
14
10.9
-215

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Fighter Overview

Matt Frevola ("The SteamRolla")

  • Record: 11 Wins, 3 Losses.
  • UFC Career: A well-rounded fighter with a background in wrestling and striking.
  • Recent Performance: Showing resilience with recent wins, including knockouts, suggesting a strong comeback.

Benoit Saint Denis ("God of War")

  • Record: 12 Wins, 1 Loss, 1 No Contest.
  • UFC Career: Notably aggressive in his approach, with a high rate of takedowns attempted and a solid striking game.
  • Recent Performance: Impressive recent wins, showcasing both striking and grappling skills.

WolfTicketsAI Prediction: Saint Denis to Win

Analysis Supporting Prediction

  1. Aggressive Style: Saint Denis’ aggressive approach, characterized by a high volume of strikes and takedowns, aligns with the prediction of his victory. His ability to control the pace could be a key factor.
  2. Striking and Grappling Balance: Saint Denis demonstrates a balanced skill set in both striking and grappling, an advantage in a versatile matchup like this one.
  3. Momentum: Saint Denis is on an upward trajectory with recent victories, indicating a strong momentum coming into this fight.

Heuristic Considerations

  • KO/TKO Losses: Frevola’s history includes losses by knockout, which may be a concern against a high-output striker like Saint Denis.
  • Weight Class Consistency: Both fighters have been consistent in their weight class, ensuring a fair assessment of their capabilities.
  • Career Trends: Saint Denis shows a promising upward trend, whereas Frevola, despite recent wins, has faced challenges in his UFC career.

Additional Insights

  • Fighter Resilience: Frevola’s recent wins after losses show resilience, but facing a rising fighter like Saint Denis will be a rigorous test.
  • No Prior Matchups: The lack of previous encounters between these two adds an element of unpredictability.

Conclusion

Benoit Saint Denis is predicted to triumph over Matt Frevola, primarily due to his aggressive fighting style, balanced skill set, and recent momentum. Saint Denis’ ability to maintain a high pace and volume in both striking and grappling poses a significant challenge for Frevola. While Frevola has demonstrated resilience and capability in his recent fights, Saint Denis’ current trajectory and versatile approach give him the edge in this lightweight contest.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Matt Frevola Benoit Saint Denis
Main Stats
Age 33 27
Height 69" 71"
Reach 71" 73"
Win Percentage 78.57% 92.31%
Wins 11 13
Losses 4 1
Wins at Weight Class 5 4
Losses at Weight Class 4 0
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 47.35% 61.22%
Significant Striking Accuracy 42.27% 52.50%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.901 8.710
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.887 5.589
Knockdowns per Fight 1.268 1.089
Striking Impact Differential -0.22% 19.60%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 1.22% 2.60%
Striking Output Differential -4.67% 28.00%
Significant Striking Output Differential -1.44% 8.80%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 122.70% 51.67%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 145.29% 77.06%
Striking Defense Percentage 60.21% 44.95%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.634 1.452
Takedowns per Fight 2.113 4.718
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 6.127 13.065
Takedown Defense 150.00% 25.00%
Takedown Accuracy 34.48% 36.11%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.718 3.169
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 7.268 7.718
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.648 3.218
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.634 1.597
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.324 2.081
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.789 1.476
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.535 0.823
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.606 0.847
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.296 0.581
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.366 0.460
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.676 0.702
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.296 1.089
Matt Frevola History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
May 6, 2023 Lightweight Drew Dober Matt Frevola Matt Frevola
Nov. 12, 2022 Lightweight Matt Frevola Ottman Azaitar Matt Frevola
Jan. 22, 2022 Lightweight Matt Frevola Genaro Valdez Matt Frevola
June 12, 2021 Lightweight Matt Frevola Terrance McKinney Terrance McKinney
Jan. 23, 2021 Lightweight Arman Tsarukyan Matt Frevola Arman Tsarukyan
Oct. 12, 2019 Lightweight Matt Frevola Luis Pena Matt Frevola
April 13, 2019 Lightweight Jalin Turner Matt Frevola Matt Frevola
Nov. 3, 2018 Lightweight Matt Frevola Lando Vannata None
Jan. 14, 2018 Lightweight Matt Frevola Marco Polo Reyes Marco Polo Reyes
Benoit Saint Denis History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Sept. 2, 2023 Lightweight Benoit Saint Denis Thiago Moises Benoit Saint Denis
July 1, 2023 Lightweight Ismael Bonfim Benoit Saint Denis Benoit Saint Denis
Sept. 3, 2022 Lightweight Benoit Saint Denis Gabriel Miranda Benoit Saint Denis
June 4, 2022 Lightweight Niklas Stolze Benoit Saint Denis Benoit Saint Denis
Oct. 30, 2021 Welterweight Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos Benoit Saint Denis Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos