John Castaneda vs. Kyung Ho Kang - UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: John Castaneda by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: New York City, New York, USA
Elevation: 10.00m
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
John Castaneda
17
11
18.0
-145
Kyung Ho Kang
12
+123

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Fighter Profiles

John Castaneda ("Sexy Mexi")

  • Record: 20 Wins, 6 Losses.
  • UFC Career: Showcases a blend of striking and grappling. Known for his knockout power and decent takedown abilities.
  • Recent Performance: Notable recent performances, including a technical submission and a unanimous decision win, but suffered a knockout loss in October 2022.

Kyung Ho Kang ("Mr. Perfect")

  • Record: 19 Wins, 9 Losses, 1 No Contest.
  • UFC Career: A versatile fighter with a balance of striking and grappling. Exhibits good takedown accuracy.
  • Recent Performance: Consistent performances with recent wins, including a submission victory in his latest bout.

WolfTicketsAI Prediction: Castaneda to Win

Prediction Justification

  1. Striking Proficiency: Castaneda's higher knockdown rate and significant striking accuracy suggest an advantage in the stand-up game.
  2. Recent Momentum: Despite a recent loss, Castaneda has shown resilience and versatility in his recent wins.
  3. Balanced Approach: His ability to blend striking with grappling could pose a significant challenge to Kang.

Key Heuristics

  • Recent Losses by KO/TKO: Castaneda's recent knockout loss is a point of concern, indicating potential vulnerability.
  • Fight Experience: Both fighters have substantial UFC experience, providing a solid basis for assessing their capabilities.
  • Career Trends: While Castaneda has faced a recent setback, his overall career trajectory shows adaptability and skill growth.

Additional Considerations

  • Style Matchup: The fight presents a compelling style matchup, with Castaneda's striking against Kang's well-rounded skill set.
  • Fighter Resilience: Both fighters have demonstrated the ability to come back from losses, indicating a potentially closely contested bout.

Conclusion

John Castaneda's predicted victory over Kyung Ho Kang hinges on his striking power and recent performance resilience. While Kang brings a balanced skill set, Castaneda's ability to effectively combine striking with grappling, along with his recent momentum, are likely to be decisive in this bantamweight matchup.

Stat Breakdown

Stat John Castaneda Kyung Ho Kang
Main Stats
Age 31 36
Height 66" 69"
Reach 71" 73"
Win Percentage 76.92% 67.86%
Wins 21 19
Losses 6 10
Wins at Weight Class 0 0
Losses at Weight Class 1 0
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 52.68% 64.23%
Significant Striking Accuracy 47.73% 49.12%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.642 6.592
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.513 3.093
Knockdowns per Fight 1.075 0.413
Striking Impact Differential -7.20% 13.25%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -12.00% 2.17%
Striking Output Differential -26.80% 1.00%
Significant Striking Output Differential -29.20% -9.25%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 120.95% 71.06%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 143.65% 134.08%
Striking Defense Percentage 53.71% 58.73%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.269 0.930
Takedowns per Fight 1.612 2.067
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 3.761 3.617
Takedown Defense 36.36% 42.86%
Takedown Accuracy 42.86% 57.14%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 3.099 2.439
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 7.469 5.380
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 3.457 1.812
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.502 0.220
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.824 0.400
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.860 0.420
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.913 0.434
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 1.164 0.517
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 1.272 0.682
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.358 0.117
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.484 0.193
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.663 0.193
John Castaneda History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
June 3, 2023 Bantamweight John Castaneda Muin Gafurov John Castaneda
Oct. 1, 2022 Catch Weight John Castaneda Daniel Santos Daniel Santos
Feb. 5, 2022 Bantamweight Miles Johns John Castaneda John Castaneda
Feb. 20, 2021 Bantamweight Eddie Wineland John Castaneda John Castaneda
July 25, 2020 Bantamweight Nathaniel Wood John Castaneda Nathaniel Wood
Kyung Ho Kang History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
June 17, 2023 Bantamweight Kyung Ho Kang Cristian Quinonez Kyung Ho Kang
June 11, 2022 Bantamweight Kyung Ho Kang Batgerel Danaa Kyung Ho Kang
Nov. 20, 2021 Bantamweight Rani Yahya Kyung Ho Kang Rani Yahya
Dec. 21, 2019 Bantamweight Kyung Ho Kang Pingyuan Liu Kyung Ho Kang
Aug. 17, 2019 Bantamweight Kyung Ho Kang Brandon Davis Kyung Ho Kang
Feb. 9, 2019 Bantamweight Teruto Ishihara Kyung Ho Kang Kyung Ho Kang
Aug. 4, 2018 Bantamweight Ricardo Ramos Kyung Ho Kang Ricardo Ramos
Jan. 14, 2018 Bantamweight Kyung Ho Kang Guido Cannetti Kyung Ho Kang
Sept. 20, 2014 Bantamweight Michinori Tanaka Kyung Ho Kang Kyung Ho Kang
Jan. 4, 2014 Bantamweight Kyung Ho Kang Shunichi Shimizu Kyung Ho Kang
Aug. 31, 2013 Bantamweight Chico Camus Kyung Ho Kang Chico Camus
March 2, 2013 Bantamweight Alex Caceres Kyung Ho Kang None