Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira - UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Alex Pereira by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: New York City, New York, USA
Elevation: 10.00m
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Jiri Prochazka
14
+110
Alex Pereira
15
0
18.6
-130

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Fighters' Overview:

Jiri Prochazka

  • Record: 29 Wins, 3 Losses.
  • UFC History: Dominating with victories by KO/TKO, showcasing formidable striking power.
  • Stats: Notable for high strikes landed per minute and significant striking accuracy. Recent performance indicates an aggressive and effective striking game.

Alex Pereira

  • Record: 8 Wins, 2 Losses.
  • UFC History: Impressive KO/TKO wins, including a notable victory over Israel Adesanya. Recent move to Light Heavyweight.
  • Stats: Exceptional striking accuracy and impact differential. A dangerous striker with a history of finishing fights.

WolfTicketsAI Prediction: Pereira to Win

Reasons Supporting Prediction:

  1. Striking Prowess: Pereira's striking accuracy and impact are superior. His history of KO/TKO victories, including against high-caliber opponents, gives him an edge.
  2. Weight Class Transition: Pereira's recent move to Light Heavyweight and a win in this class shows adaptability and competence at a higher weight, potentially offering an advantage over Prochazka.
  3. Recent Form: Pereira's recent performances, especially his knockout power, align with his predicted victory. He's been consistently landing significant strikes, a key factor in this matchup.

Additional Considerations:

  • Prochazka's Recent Injury: Having vacated a title due to injury, there might be concerns about Prochazka's fitness and performance levels.
  • Downward Trends: Neither fighter shows a downward trend in their recent UFC fights, maintaining strong records.
  • Previous Matchups: No previous fights between Prochazka and Pereira, making this a fresh and unpredictable encounter.

Conclusion:

In the high-stakes clash at UFC 295, Alex Pereira, with his superior striking accuracy and impactful performances, especially in his new weight class, is predicted to have the upper hand against Jiri Prochazka. Pereira's recent transition to Light Heavyweight and his ability to deliver knockouts against formidable opponents tip the scales in his favor. Despite Prochazka's impressive track record and striking ability, Pereira's recent form and adaptability in the Light Heavyweight division make him the predicted victor in this anticipated matchup.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Jiri Prochazka Alex Pereira
Main Stats
Age 31 36
Height 75" 76"
Reach 80" 79"
Win Percentage 90.63% 80.00%
Wins 29 9
Losses 4 2
Wins at Weight Class 1 0
Losses at Weight Class 0 0
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 58.90% 68.89%
Significant Striking Accuracy 55.56% 62.00%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 6.728 7.450
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.774 5.111
Knockdowns per Fight 0.753 0.433
Striking Impact Differential -1.00% 29.33%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 5.00% 16.33%
Striking Output Differential 11.33% 19.83%
Significant Striking Output Differential 17.67% 7.50%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 55.97% 56.20%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 63.48% 76.27%
Striking Defense Percentage 40.44% 51.33%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.377 0.217
Takedowns per Fight 0.377 0.217
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 0.377 0.217
Takedown Defense 46.15% 42.11%
Takedown Accuracy 100.00% 100.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 4.921 2.093
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 9.439 4.447
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 4.193 2.180
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.778 1.776
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.879 2.137
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.904 0.765
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.075 1.242
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.075 1.660
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.301 0.751
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.226 0.722
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.326 0.881
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.176 0.217
Jiri Prochazka History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
June 11, 2022 UFC Light Heavyweight Title Glover Teixeira Jiri Prochazka Jiri Prochazka
May 1, 2021 Light Heavyweight Dominick Reyes Jiri Prochazka Jiri Prochazka
July 11, 2020 Light Heavyweight Volkan Oezdemir Jiri Prochazka Jiri Prochazka
Alex Pereira History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
July 29, 2023 Light Heavyweight Jan Blachowicz Alex Pereira Alex Pereira
April 8, 2023 UFC Middleweight Title Alex Pereira Israel Adesanya Israel Adesanya
Nov. 12, 2022 UFC Middleweight Title Israel Adesanya Alex Pereira Alex Pereira
July 2, 2022 Middleweight Sean Strickland Alex Pereira Alex Pereira
March 12, 2022 Middleweight Alex Pereira Bruno Silva Alex Pereira
Nov. 6, 2021 Middleweight Alex Pereira Andreas Michailidis Alex Pereira