Jessica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern - UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Jessica Andrade by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: New York City, New York, USA
Elevation: 10.00m
Weight Class: Women's Strawweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Jessica Andrade
0
14
+165
Mackenzie Dern
8
2.5
-200

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Fighter Analysis

Jessica Andrade ("Bate Estaca")

  • Record: 24 Wins, 12 Losses.
  • UFC Tenure: A veteran with a versatile skill set, including high-level striking and grappling.
  • Recent Performance: Mixed results with notable wins and losses, showing a versatile yet somewhat inconsistent performance.

Mackenzie Dern

  • Record: 13 Wins, 3 Losses.
  • UFC Tenure: Known for her exceptional grappling skills, particularly in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
  • Recent Performance: Consistent performance with a strong grappling focus, showcasing her submission skills.

WolfTicketsAI Prediction: Dern to Win

Prediction Analysis

  1. Grappling Dominance: Dern's grappling prowess, especially in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, is a significant advantage. Her takedown attempts and submission skills are likely to be pivotal.
  2. Striking Versatility: While Andrade has a well-rounded striking game, Dern’s recent improvement in striking provides a more balanced approach to this fight.
  3. Recent Momentum: Dern’s recent performances, despite a few losses, show a trend of improvement and adaptation, crucial in high-level MMA.

Heuristic Considerations

  • KO/TKO Losses: Andrade has faced recent losses via KO/TKO, which may impact her approach to the fight, especially against a submission specialist like Dern.
  • Weight Class Stability: Both fighters have been consistent in their weight class, providing a fair comparison of their skills and performances.
  • Downward Trend: Andrade's recent fight record shows some inconsistencies, which could be a concern against a rising contender like Dern.

Additional Insights

  • Career Trajectory: Andrade’s experience is extensive, but her recent performances suggest a need for strategic adjustments against a specialist like Dern.
  • Previous Encounters: No previous fights between Andrade and Dern, adding an element of unpredictability to their matchup.

Conclusion

Mackenzie Dern's predicted victory over Jessica Andrade is rooted in her superior grappling skills and recent improvements in striking. Dern’s ability to dominate on the ground, coupled with her evolving stand-up game, positions her well against Andrade's more varied but recently inconsistent skill set. The fight promises to be a clash of styles, with Dern's ground game likely playing a decisive role in this intriguing Women's Strawweight bout.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Jessica Andrade Mackenzie Dern
Main Stats
Age 32 30
Height 61" 64"
Reach 62" 63"
Win Percentage 66.67% 81.25%
Wins 25 13
Losses 12 4
Wins at Weight Class 7 8
Losses at Weight Class 3 3
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 56.90% 53.32%
Significant Striking Accuracy 50.84% 40.21%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 8.829 6.051
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 6.676 3.358
Knockdowns per Fight 0.195 0.202
Striking Impact Differential 21.96% 14.73%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 12.28% -9.91%
Striking Output Differential 23.40% 26.09%
Significant Striking Output Differential 12.88% -0.91%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 73.99% 73.64%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 95.71% 128.86%
Striking Defense Percentage 54.46% 51.40%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.391 1.514
Takedowns per Fight 2.539 0.808
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 4.623 5.351
Takedown Defense 42.00% 150.00%
Takedown Accuracy 54.93% 15.09%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 4.315 2.531
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 10.062 7.336
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 3.555 1.999
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 1.524 0.505
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 2.136 0.666
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.959 1.171
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.838 0.323
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.933 0.350
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.829 0.922
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 1.259 0.417
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 2.005 0.525
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.929 0.626
Jessica Andrade History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Aug. 5, 2023 Women's Strawweight Jessica Andrade Tatiana Suarez Tatiana Suarez
May 6, 2023 Women's Strawweight Jessica Andrade Yan Xiaonan Yan Xiaonan
Feb. 18, 2023 Women's Flyweight Jessica Andrade Erin Blanchfield Erin Blanchfield
Jan. 21, 2023 Women's Flyweight Lauren Murphy Jessica Andrade Jessica Andrade
April 23, 2022 Women's Strawweight Amanda Lemos Jessica Andrade Jessica Andrade
Sept. 25, 2021 Women's Flyweight Jessica Andrade Cynthia Calvillo Jessica Andrade
April 24, 2021 UFC Women's Flyweight Title Valentina Shevchenko Jessica Andrade Valentina Shevchenko
Oct. 17, 2020 Women's Flyweight Katlyn Cerminara Jessica Andrade Jessica Andrade
July 11, 2020 Women's Strawweight Jessica Andrade Rose Namajunas Rose Namajunas
Aug. 31, 2019 UFC Women's Strawweight Title Jessica Andrade Zhang Weili Zhang Weili
May 11, 2019 UFC Women's Strawweight Title Rose Namajunas Jessica Andrade Jessica Andrade
Sept. 8, 2018 Women's Strawweight Jessica Andrade Karolina Kowalkiewicz Jessica Andrade
Feb. 24, 2018 Women's Strawweight Jessica Andrade Tecia Pennington Jessica Andrade
Sept. 22, 2017 Women's Strawweight Claudia Gadelha Jessica Andrade Jessica Andrade
May 13, 2017 UFC Women's Strawweight Title Joanna Jedrzejczyk Jessica Andrade Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Feb. 4, 2017 Women's Strawweight Jessica Andrade Angela Hill Jessica Andrade
Sept. 10, 2016 Women's Strawweight Jessica Andrade Joanne Wood Jessica Andrade
June 4, 2016 Women's Strawweight Jessica Penne Jessica Andrade Jessica Andrade
Sept. 5, 2015 Women's Bantamweight Jessica Andrade Raquel Pennington Raquel Pennington
July 15, 2015 Women's Bantamweight Jessica Andrade Sarah Moras Jessica Andrade
Feb. 22, 2015 Women's Bantamweight Jessica Andrade Marion Reneau Marion Reneau
Sept. 13, 2014 Women's Bantamweight Jessica Andrade Larissa Pacheco Jessica Andrade
March 15, 2014 Women's Bantamweight Raquel Pennington Jessica Andrade Jessica Andrade
Oct. 26, 2013 Women's Bantamweight Rosi Sexton Jessica Andrade Jessica Andrade
July 27, 2013 Women's Bantamweight Liz Carmouche Jessica Andrade Liz Carmouche
Mackenzie Dern History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
May 20, 2023 Women's Strawweight Mackenzie Dern Angela Hill Mackenzie Dern
Oct. 1, 2022 Women's Strawweight Mackenzie Dern Yan Xiaonan Yan Xiaonan
April 9, 2022 Women's Strawweight Mackenzie Dern Tecia Pennington Mackenzie Dern
Oct. 9, 2021 Women's Strawweight Mackenzie Dern Marina Rodriguez Marina Rodriguez
April 10, 2021 Women's Strawweight Nina Nunes Mackenzie Dern Mackenzie Dern
Dec. 12, 2020 Women's Strawweight Mackenzie Dern Virna Jandiroba Mackenzie Dern
Sept. 19, 2020 Women's Strawweight Mackenzie Dern Randa Markos Mackenzie Dern
May 30, 2020 Women's Strawweight Mackenzie Dern Hannah Cifers Mackenzie Dern
Oct. 12, 2019 Women's Strawweight Mackenzie Dern Amanda Ribas Amanda Ribas
May 12, 2018 Women's Strawweight Mackenzie Dern Amanda Cooper Mackenzie Dern
March 3, 2018 Women's Strawweight Ashley Yoder Mackenzie Dern Mackenzie Dern