Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen - UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Jared Gordon by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: New York City, New York, USA
Elevation: 10.00m
Weight Class: Lightweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Jared Gordon
18
18
14
14.3
-185
Mark Madsen
+156

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Fighter Insights

Jared Gordon ("Flash")

  • Record: 19 Wins, 6 Losses, 1 No Contest.
  • UFC Career: Known for a high striking rate and solid takedown attempts. Has shown versatility in both stand-up and ground game.
  • Recent Performance: Mixed results with some wins and losses, including a controversial decision loss and a no contest due to a headbutt.

Mark Madsen ("The Olympian")

  • Record: 12 Wins, 1 Loss.
  • UFC Career: Strong wrestling background, reflected in his takedown accuracy. Also demonstrates a good striking game.
  • Recent Performance: Consistent performances with a majority of wins, but a recent submission loss.

WolfTicketsAI Prediction: Gordon to Win

Analysis Supporting Prediction

  1. Striking and Volume: Gordon's high striking rate and significant strikes landed per minute suggest he could outpace Madsen in stand-up exchanges.
  2. Versatility: Gordon's ability to engage both in striking and grappling makes him a well-rounded opponent.
  3. Resilience: Despite recent setbacks, Gordon has shown resilience and the ability to bounce back, which could be pivotal in this matchup.

Key Heuristics

  • Recent Knockout Losses: Neither fighter has suffered a recent knockout loss, indicating durability in both.
  • Fight Experience: Both fighters have adequate UFC experience to assess their capabilities and performance trends accurately.
  • Career Trends: Gordon shows a mix of wins and losses, but his overall performance remains strong. Madsen's career is on a positive trajectory, despite the recent submission loss.

Additional Considerations

  • Style Clash: The fight presents an interesting clash of styles, with Gordon's striking and volume against Madsen's wrestling prowess.
  • Recent Momentum: Both fighters have shown good momentum, but Gordon's higher activity rate in his fights could give him an edge.

Conclusion

Jared Gordon’s predicted victory over Mark Madsen is based on his high striking rate, versatility, and resilience. While Madsen brings strong wrestling skills to the fight, Gordon's ability to compete effectively both in stand-up and on the ground, combined with his higher fight volume, gives him a strategic advantage in this lightweight bout.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Jared Gordon Mark Madsen
Main Stats
Age 35 39
Height 69" 68"
Reach 68" 72"
Win Percentage 76.00% 92.31%
Wins 20 12
Losses 6 2
Wins at Weight Class 4 4
Losses at Weight Class 6 1
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 69.82% 53.16%
Significant Striking Accuracy 57.79% 47.73%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 10.093 4.324
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.321 3.243
Knockdowns per Fight 0.000 0.000
Striking Impact Differential 65.69% -5.20%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 23.46% -5.00%
Striking Output Differential 61.23% -11.60%
Significant Striking Output Differential 14.92% -12.80%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 47.08% 100.79%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 87.03% 130.16%
Striking Defense Percentage 58.56% 53.48%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.000 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 2.011 3.088
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 5.026 4.633
Takedown Defense 60.00% 60.00%
Takedown Accuracy 40.00% 66.67%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 3.766 2.471
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 7.171 5.937
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.051 1.784
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.978 0.360
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.374 0.429
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.764 0.669
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.576 0.412
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.664 0.429
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.462 1.218
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.697 0.429
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.878 0.532
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.416 0.395
Jared Gordon History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
April 22, 2023 Lightweight King Green Jared Gordon None
Dec. 10, 2022 Lightweight Paddy Pimblett Jared Gordon Paddy Pimblett
Aug. 20, 2022 Lightweight Leonardo Santos Jared Gordon Jared Gordon
April 30, 2022 Lightweight Jared Gordon Grant Dawson Grant Dawson
Oct. 2, 2021 Lightweight Joe Solecki Jared Gordon Jared Gordon
Feb. 20, 2021 Featherweight Jared Gordon Danny Chavez Jared Gordon
July 15, 2020 Featherweight Jared Gordon Chris Fishgold Jared Gordon
Nov. 16, 2019 Lightweight Charles Oliveira Jared Gordon Charles Oliveira
June 29, 2019 Lightweight Jared Gordon Dan Moret Jared Gordon
Dec. 15, 2018 Lightweight Jared Gordon Joaquim Silva Joaquim Silva
Feb. 18, 2018 Lightweight Jared Gordon Diego Ferreira Diego Ferreira
Oct. 28, 2017 Lightweight Hacran Dias Jared Gordon Jared Gordon
June 25, 2017 Featherweight Jared Gordon Michel Quinones Jared Gordon
Mark Madsen History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Nov. 5, 2022 Lightweight Grant Dawson Mark Madsen Grant Dawson
April 9, 2022 Lightweight Vinc Pichel Mark Madsen Mark Madsen
Aug. 21, 2021 Lightweight Clay Guida Mark Madsen Mark Madsen
March 7, 2020 Lightweight Mark Madsen Austin Hubbard Mark Madsen
Sept. 28, 2019 Lightweight Mark Madsen Danilo Belluardo Mark Madsen