Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini - UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Diego Lopes by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: New York City, New York, USA
Elevation: 10.00m
Weight Class: Featherweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Diego Lopes
12
+105
Pat Sabatini
14
16
20.6
-120

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Fighter Profiles

Diego Lopes

  • Record: 22 Wins, 6 Losses.
  • UFC Career: Lopes shows a well-rounded skillset but lacks significant takedown attempts in his recent fights, indicating a preference for striking.
  • Recent Performance: A mixed bag of results with a recent win via submission but also a unanimous decision loss.

Pat Sabatini

  • Record: 18 Wins, 4 Losses.
  • UFC Career: Demonstrates a strong grappling game with frequent takedown attempts and successful submissions.
  • Recent Performance: Impressive victories, including a submission win, but also a loss via technical knockout.

WolfTicketsAI Prediction: Sabatini to Win

Prediction Justification

  1. Grappling Prowess: Sabatini's frequent takedown attempts and successful submissions indicate a strong grappling advantage, particularly against Lopes, who shows less emphasis on grappling.
  2. Recent Momentum: Despite a recent TKO loss, Sabatini’s overall performance in the UFC has been strong, especially in grappling exchanges.
  3. Striking Defense: Sabatini's striking defense and takedown defense ratios suggest a capability to handle Lopes' striking-focused approach.

Key Heuristics

  • Recent Losses: Sabatini's recent loss via TKO might raise concerns, but his overall performance and quick recovery with a submission win mitigate these concerns.
  • Experience in UFC: Both fighters have sufficient experience in the UFC to make a well-informed prediction.
  • Downward Trends: Neither fighter shows a significant downward trend in their recent UFC fights.

Additional Considerations

  • Fighter Resilience: Lopes’ resilience, evident in his recent submission win, could pose a challenge to Sabatini.
  • Fighter Versatility: Sabatini's versatility, especially in grappling, may be a key factor against Lopes.

Conclusion

Pat Sabatini’s prediction to win against Diego Lopes is rooted in his superior grappling skills and consistent performance in the UFC. Sabatini’s ability to control the fight with takedowns and his proficiency in submissions could be decisive against Lopes, who prefers a striking approach. While Lopes is resilient and skilled, Sabatini’s grappling dominance and recent UFC momentum give him a strategic edge in this featherweight matchup.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Diego Lopes Pat Sabatini
Main Stats
Age 28 33
Height 71" 68"
Reach 72" 70"
Win Percentage 78.57% 81.82%
Wins 23 18
Losses 6 5
Wins at Weight Class 1 5
Losses at Weight Class 1 1
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 55.81% 79.44%
Significant Striking Accuracy 50.68% 59.78%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 2.886 7.258
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 2.224 1.951
Knockdowns per Fight 0.000 0.274
Striking Impact Differential -67.50% 37.00%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -25.50% 5.50%
Striking Output Differential -74.00% 38.83%
Significant Striking Output Differential -31.00% 4.17%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 106.25% 23.12%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 127.03% 74.77%
Striking Defense Percentage 34.81% 51.95%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 6.313 1.915
Takedowns per Fight 0.000 3.830
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 0.000 8.480
Takedown Defense 166.67% 133.33%
Takedown Accuracy 0.00% 45.16%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 1.744 1.514
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 3.607 2.772
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 4.569 0.693
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.241 0.310
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.481 0.347
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.180 0.438
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.241 0.128
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.301 0.146
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.541 0.219
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.180 0.164
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.180 0.219
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.661 0.219
Diego Lopes History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Aug. 5, 2023 Featherweight Diego Lopes Gavin Tucker Diego Lopes
May 6, 2023 Featherweight Movsar Evloev Diego Lopes Movsar Evloev
Pat Sabatini History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
June 17, 2023 Featherweight Pat Sabatini Lucas Almeida Pat Sabatini
Sept. 17, 2022 Featherweight Damon Jackson Pat Sabatini Damon Jackson
April 16, 2022 Featherweight Pat Sabatini TJ Laramie Pat Sabatini
Nov. 20, 2021 Featherweight Pat Sabatini Tucker Lutz Pat Sabatini
Aug. 28, 2021 Featherweight Jamall Emmers Pat Sabatini Pat Sabatini
April 24, 2021 Featherweight Pat Sabatini Tristan Connelly Pat Sabatini