Said Nurmagomedov vs. Muin Gafurov - UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Said Nurmagomedov by Submission

Fight Info:
Location: Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Elevation: 27.00m
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Said Nurmagomedov
18
23
15
9.9
-225
Muin Gafurov
+183

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

This bantamweight matchup between Said Nurmagomedov and Muin Gafurov pits an established Dagestani veteran against a less experienced Tajik newcomer. Nurmagomedov has compiled an impressive 17-3 record professionally including wins over top contenders like Ricardo Ramos. However, he is coming off a close decision loss to Jonathan Martinez. Gafurov recently lost his UFC debut by decision to John Castaneda, so he'll look to rebound against Nurmagomedov's stifling wrestling. Nurmagomedov likely holds the technical and experience edges, and WolfTicketsAI is predicting him to exploit Gafurov's defensive wrestling holes for a bounce-back victory

Stat Breakdown

Stat Said Nurmagomedov Muin Gafurov
Main Stats
Age 31 27
Height 68" 67"
Reach 70" 68"
Win Percentage 85.00% 78.26%
Wins 18 18
Losses 3 6
Wins at Weight Class 5 0
Losses at Weight Class 2 1
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 56.66% 45.59%
Significant Striking Accuracy 47.87% 38.85%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.539 6.200
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.538 4.067
Knockdowns per Fight 0.206 0.000
Striking Impact Differential 20.00% 23.00%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 12.63% 21.00%
Striking Output Differential 29.88% 83.00%
Significant Striking Output Differential 21.75% 69.00%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 56.93% 54.84%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 80.62% 78.69%
Striking Defense Percentage 56.99% 54.55%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 1.234 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 1.028 0.000
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 6.170 6.000
Takedown Defense 53.33% 100.00%
Takedown Accuracy 16.67% 0.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 1.920 3.000
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 5.334 9.000
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.850 2.000
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.809 0.733
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.152 1.067
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.466 0.267
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.809 0.333
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.905 0.400
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.836 0.400
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.603 0.933
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.782 1.667
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.302 0.067
Said Nurmagomedov History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
March 11, 2023 Bantamweight Said Nurmagomedov Jonathan Martinez Jonathan Martinez
Dec. 17, 2022 Bantamweight Said Nurmagomedov Saidyokub Kakhramonov Said Nurmagomedov
July 9, 2022 Bantamweight Douglas Silva de Andrade Said Nurmagomedov Said Nurmagomedov
Jan. 22, 2022 Bantamweight Cody Stamann Said Nurmagomedov Said Nurmagomedov
Oct. 17, 2020 Bantamweight Said Nurmagomedov Mark Striegl Said Nurmagomedov
Dec. 21, 2019 Bantamweight Raoni Barcelos Said Nurmagomedov Raoni Barcelos
Feb. 2, 2019 Bantamweight Ricardo Ramos Said Nurmagomedov Said Nurmagomedov
July 14, 2018 Flyweight Justin Scoggins Said Nurmagomedov Said Nurmagomedov
Muin Gafurov History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
June 3, 2023 Bantamweight John Castaneda Muin Gafurov John Castaneda