The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Basic Prediction
This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.
Ankalaev is the clear favorite going into this light heavyweight matchup, and for good reason. With an 18-1 record and coming off a controversial split draw against Jan Blachowicz for the vacant title, Ankalaev has been on a tear through the 205 lb division. His wrestling, grappling, and power striking have proven extremely difficult to deal with. Walker will be a unique challenge with his 6'6 frame and dangerous kicks, but his 7 UFC losses show inconsistency. WolfTicketsAI is smart to predict Ankalaev here. He was robbed of the belt last time, and will be fiercely determined to make a statement that he is the top contender, leaving Walker starched on the canvas.
| Stat | Magomed Ankalaev | Johnny Walker | Weight Class Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Stats | ||||
| Age | 31 | 31 | 33 | |
| Height | 75" | 78" | 74" | |
| Reach | 75" | 82" | 77" | |
| Win Percentage | 94.74% | 75.00% | 78.33% | |
| Wins | 18 | 21 | ||
| Losses | 1 | 7 | ||
| Wins at Weight Class | 9 | 7 | ||
| Losses at Weight Class | 1 | 4 | ||
| Striking Stats | ||||
| Striking Accuracy | 62.91% | 58.23% | 55.13% | |
| Significant Striking Accuracy | 52.26% | 53.33% | 49.85% | |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 6.005 | 4.639 | 5.348 | |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.548 | 3.534 | 4.080 | |
| Knockdowns per Fight | 0.658 | 0.828 | 0.575 | |
| Striking Impact Differential | 38.91% | 4.91% | 4.19% | |
| Significant Striking Impact Differential | 17.36% | 7.55% | 5.07% | |
| Striking Output Differential | 43.27% | 9.36% | 7.17% | |
| Significant Striking Output Differential | 18.91% | 11.45% | 8.14% | |
| Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 53.11% | 57.14% | 75.05% | |
| Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 87.84% | 70.70% | 97.21% | |
| Striking Defense Percentage | 59.17% | 51.13% | 49.43% | |
| Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
| Submissions per Fight | 0.000 | 0.621 | 0.408 | |
| Takedowns per Fight | 0.987 | 0.414 | 1.199 | |
| Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 3.401 | 0.414 | 2.884 | |
| Takedown Defense | 15.79% | 88.89% | 76.82% | |
| Takedown Accuracy | 29.03% | 100.00% | 33.69% | |
| Head Stats | ||||
| Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 2.282 | 1.822 | 2.629 | |
| Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 5.113 | 4.183 | 6.255 | |
| Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.768 | 1.436 | 2.227 | |
| Body Stats | ||||
| Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.914 | 0.359 | 0.822 | |
| Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.273 | 0.704 | 1.117 | |
| Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.578 | 0.483 | 0.692 | |
| Leg Stats | ||||
| Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.351 | 1.353 | 0.628 | |
| Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.402 | 1.740 | 0.754 | |
| Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.805 | 0.469 | 0.584 | |
| Clinch Stats | ||||
| Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.351 | 0.345 | 0.517 | |
| Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.446 | 0.400 | 0.690 | |
| Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.212 | 0.235 | 0.463 | |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec. 10, 2022 | UFC Light Heavyweight Title | Jan Blachowicz | Magomed Ankalaev | None | |
| July 30, 2022 | Light Heavyweight | Magomed Ankalaev | Anthony Smith | Magomed Ankalaev | |
| March 12, 2022 | Light Heavyweight | Thiago Santos | Magomed Ankalaev | Magomed Ankalaev | |
| Oct. 30, 2021 | Light Heavyweight | Magomed Ankalaev | Volkan Oezdemir | Magomed Ankalaev | |
| Feb. 27, 2021 | Light Heavyweight | Nikita Krylov | Magomed Ankalaev | Magomed Ankalaev | |
| Oct. 24, 2020 | Light Heavyweight | Magomed Ankalaev | Ion Cutelaba | Magomed Ankalaev | |
| Feb. 29, 2020 | Light Heavyweight | Ion Cutelaba | Magomed Ankalaev | Magomed Ankalaev | |
| Nov. 9, 2019 | Light Heavyweight | Magomed Ankalaev | Dalcha Lungiambula | Magomed Ankalaev | |
| Feb. 23, 2019 | Light Heavyweight | Magomed Ankalaev | Klidson Abreu | Magomed Ankalaev | |
| Sept. 15, 2018 | Light Heavyweight | Magomed Ankalaev | Marcin Prachnio | Magomed Ankalaev | |
| March 17, 2018 | Light Heavyweight | Paul Craig | Magomed Ankalaev | Paul Craig |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2023 | Light Heavyweight | Anthony Smith | Johnny Walker | Johnny Walker | |
| Jan. 21, 2023 | Light Heavyweight | Paul Craig | Johnny Walker | Johnny Walker | |
| Sept. 10, 2022 | Light Heavyweight | Johnny Walker | Ion Cutelaba | Johnny Walker | |
| Feb. 19, 2022 | Light Heavyweight | Johnny Walker | Jamahal Hill | Jamahal Hill | |
| Oct. 2, 2021 | Light Heavyweight | Thiago Santos | Johnny Walker | Thiago Santos | |
| Sept. 19, 2020 | Light Heavyweight | Johnny Walker | Ryan Spann | Johnny Walker | |
| March 14, 2020 | Light Heavyweight | Johnny Walker | Nikita Krylov | Nikita Krylov | |
| Nov. 2, 2019 | Light Heavyweight | Corey Anderson | Johnny Walker | Corey Anderson | |
| March 2, 2019 | Light Heavyweight | Misha Cirkunov | Johnny Walker | Johnny Walker | |
| Feb. 2, 2019 | Light Heavyweight | Johnny Walker | Justin Ledet | Johnny Walker | |
| Nov. 17, 2018 | Light Heavyweight | Khalil Rountree Jr. | Johnny Walker | Johnny Walker |