Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev - UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Khamzat Chimaev by Decision - Majority

Fight Info:
Location: Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Elevation: 27.00m
Weight Class: Middleweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Kamaru Usman
0
+210
Khamzat Chimaev
11
14
-2.1
-260

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

WolfTicketsAI predicts Khamzat Chimaev to defeat Kamaru Usman in their upcoming UFC middleweight bout at UFC 294. This prediction is reasonable based on several factors:

  • Usman is coming off back-to-back losses to Leon Edwards, including dropping the UFC welterweight title in a stunning 5th round KO. He hasn't fought at middleweight before, so this is a new weight class for the 36-year old.

  • Chimaev is undefeated at 12-0 in his pro MMA career, with dominant finishes in the UFC over top competition like Gilbert Burns. At 29, he's in his athletic prime and moving back down to middleweight where he's had success.

  • In terms of recent performance metrics, Chimaev has significant advantages in knockdowns, striking accuracy and impact. He also has never been taken down in his UFC fights, while Usman's takedown defense has slipped recently.

  • While Usman is the more experienced fighter overall, his late career slide and bout at 185 lbs make Chimaev the safer pick here as an emerging elite fighter still gaining momentum.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Kamaru Usman Khamzat Chimaev
Main Stats
Age 36 29
Height 72" 74"
Reach 76" 75"
Win Percentage 86.96% 100.00%
Wins 20 13
Losses 4 0
Wins at Weight Class 0 2
Losses at Weight Class 0 0
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 64.31% 69.29%
Significant Striking Accuracy 52.23% 59.62%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 7.924 12.584
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.462 7.305
Knockdowns per Fight 0.502 0.996
Striking Impact Differential 78.53% 39.33%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 30.12% 16.67%
Striking Output Differential 95.94% 53.17%
Significant Striking Output Differential 44.35% 27.50%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 43.01% 22.43%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 73.31% 38.18%
Striking Defense Percentage 54.33% 41.18%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.100 3.486
Takedowns per Fight 2.960 3.985
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 6.473 6.973
Takedown Defense 2.78% 100.00%
Takedown Accuracy 45.74% 57.14%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.797 6.375
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 6.493 11.057
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.479 2.988
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 1.305 0.531
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.636 0.797
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.749 0.731
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.361 0.399
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.415 0.399
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.522 0.266
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.786 0.365
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.963 0.432
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.388 0.299
Kamaru Usman History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
March 18, 2023 UFC Welterweight Title Leon Edwards Kamaru Usman Leon Edwards
Aug. 20, 2022 UFC Welterweight Title Kamaru Usman Leon Edwards Leon Edwards
Nov. 6, 2021 UFC Welterweight Title Kamaru Usman Colby Covington Kamaru Usman
April 24, 2021 UFC Welterweight Title Kamaru Usman Jorge Masvidal Kamaru Usman
Feb. 13, 2021 UFC Welterweight Title Kamaru Usman Gilbert Burns Kamaru Usman
July 11, 2020 UFC Welterweight Title Kamaru Usman Jorge Masvidal Kamaru Usman
Dec. 14, 2019 UFC Welterweight Title Kamaru Usman Colby Covington Kamaru Usman
March 2, 2019 UFC Welterweight Title Tyron Woodley Kamaru Usman Kamaru Usman
Nov. 30, 2018 Welterweight Rafael Dos Anjos Kamaru Usman Kamaru Usman
May 19, 2018 Welterweight Demian Maia Kamaru Usman Kamaru Usman
Jan. 14, 2018 Welterweight Kamaru Usman Emil Meek Kamaru Usman
Sept. 16, 2017 Welterweight Kamaru Usman Sergio Moraes Kamaru Usman
April 8, 2017 Welterweight Kamaru Usman Sean Strickland Kamaru Usman
Nov. 19, 2016 Welterweight Warlley Alves Kamaru Usman Kamaru Usman
July 23, 2016 Welterweight Kamaru Usman Alexander Yakovlev Kamaru Usman
Dec. 19, 2015 Welterweight Kamaru Usman Leon Edwards Kamaru Usman
July 12, 2015 Ultimate Fighter 21 Welterweight Tournament Title Kamaru Usman Hayder Hassan Kamaru Usman
Khamzat Chimaev History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Sept. 10, 2022 Catch Weight Khamzat Chimaev Kevin Holland Khamzat Chimaev
April 9, 2022 Welterweight Gilbert Burns Khamzat Chimaev Khamzat Chimaev
Oct. 30, 2021 Welterweight Li Jingliang Khamzat Chimaev Khamzat Chimaev
Sept. 19, 2020 Middleweight Khamzat Chimaev Gerald Meerschaert Khamzat Chimaev
July 25, 2020 Welterweight Khamzat Chimaev Rhys McKee Khamzat Chimaev
July 15, 2020 Middleweight John Phillips Khamzat Chimaev Khamzat Chimaev