The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Basic Prediction
This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.
WolfTicketsAI predicts Khamzat Chimaev to defeat Kamaru Usman in their upcoming UFC middleweight bout at UFC 294. This prediction is reasonable based on several factors:
Usman is coming off back-to-back losses to Leon Edwards, including dropping the UFC welterweight title in a stunning 5th round KO. He hasn't fought at middleweight before, so this is a new weight class for the 36-year old.
Chimaev is undefeated at 12-0 in his pro MMA career, with dominant finishes in the UFC over top competition like Gilbert Burns. At 29, he's in his athletic prime and moving back down to middleweight where he's had success.
In terms of recent performance metrics, Chimaev has significant advantages in knockdowns, striking accuracy and impact. He also has never been taken down in his UFC fights, while Usman's takedown defense has slipped recently.
While Usman is the more experienced fighter overall, his late career slide and bout at 185 lbs make Chimaev the safer pick here as an emerging elite fighter still gaining momentum.
Stat | Kamaru Usman | Khamzat Chimaev | Weight Class Average | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Main Stats | ||||
Age | 36 | 29 | 32 | |
Height | 72" | 74" | 73" | |
Reach | 76" | 75" | 75" | |
Win Percentage | 86.96% | 100.00% | 78.94% | |
Wins | 20 | 13 | ||
Losses | 4 | 0 | ||
Wins at Weight Class | 0 | 2 | ||
Losses at Weight Class | 0 | 0 | ||
Striking Stats | ||||
Striking Accuracy | 64.31% | 69.29% | 54.52% | |
Significant Striking Accuracy | 52.23% | 59.62% | 48.40% | |
Strikes Landed Per Minute | 7.924 | 12.584 | 5.820 | |
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.462 | 7.305 | 4.215 | |
Knockdowns per Fight | 0.502 | 0.996 | 1.204 | |
Striking Impact Differential | 78.53% | 39.33% | 4.64% | |
Significant Striking Impact Differential | 30.12% | 16.67% | 2.87% | |
Striking Output Differential | 95.94% | 53.17% | 5.56% | |
Significant Striking Output Differential | 44.35% | 27.50% | 3.17% | |
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 43.01% | 22.43% | 82.49% | |
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 73.31% | 38.18% | 102.33% | |
Striking Defense Percentage | 54.33% | 41.18% | 49.45% | |
Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
Submissions per Fight | 0.100 | 3.486 | 0.627 | |
Takedowns per Fight | 2.960 | 3.985 | 1.515 | |
Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 6.473 | 6.973 | 3.915 | |
Takedown Defense | 2.78% | 100.00% | 83.26% | |
Takedown Accuracy | 45.74% | 57.14% | 32.70% | |
Head Stats | ||||
Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 2.797 | 6.375 | 2.864 | |
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 6.493 | 11.057 | 6.365 | |
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 1.479 | 2.988 | 2.275 | |
Body Stats | ||||
Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.305 | 0.531 | 0.872 | |
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.636 | 0.797 | 1.138 | |
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.749 | 0.731 | 0.800 | |
Leg Stats | ||||
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.361 | 0.399 | 0.479 | |
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.415 | 0.399 | 0.558 | |
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.522 | 0.266 | 0.527 | |
Clinch Stats | ||||
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.786 | 0.365 | 0.516 | |
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.963 | 0.432 | 0.675 | |
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.388 | 0.299 | 0.459 |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
March 18, 2023 | UFC Welterweight Title | Leon Edwards | Kamaru Usman | Leon Edwards | |
Aug. 20, 2022 | UFC Welterweight Title | Kamaru Usman | Leon Edwards | Leon Edwards | |
Nov. 6, 2021 | UFC Welterweight Title | Kamaru Usman | Colby Covington | Kamaru Usman | |
April 24, 2021 | UFC Welterweight Title | Kamaru Usman | Jorge Masvidal | Kamaru Usman | |
Feb. 13, 2021 | UFC Welterweight Title | Kamaru Usman | Gilbert Burns | Kamaru Usman | |
July 11, 2020 | UFC Welterweight Title | Kamaru Usman | Jorge Masvidal | Kamaru Usman | |
Dec. 14, 2019 | UFC Welterweight Title | Kamaru Usman | Colby Covington | Kamaru Usman | |
March 2, 2019 | UFC Welterweight Title | Tyron Woodley | Kamaru Usman | Kamaru Usman | |
Nov. 30, 2018 | Welterweight | Rafael Dos Anjos | Kamaru Usman | Kamaru Usman | |
May 19, 2018 | Welterweight | Demian Maia | Kamaru Usman | Kamaru Usman | |
Jan. 14, 2018 | Welterweight | Kamaru Usman | Emil Meek | Kamaru Usman | |
Sept. 16, 2017 | Welterweight | Kamaru Usman | Sergio Moraes | Kamaru Usman | |
April 8, 2017 | Welterweight | Kamaru Usman | Sean Strickland | Kamaru Usman | |
Nov. 19, 2016 | Welterweight | Warlley Alves | Kamaru Usman | Kamaru Usman | |
July 23, 2016 | Welterweight | Kamaru Usman | Alexander Yakovlev | Kamaru Usman | |
Dec. 19, 2015 | Welterweight | Kamaru Usman | Leon Edwards | Kamaru Usman | |
July 12, 2015 | Ultimate Fighter 21 Welterweight Tournament Title | Kamaru Usman | Hayder Hassan | Kamaru Usman |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sept. 10, 2022 | Catch Weight | Khamzat Chimaev | Kevin Holland | Khamzat Chimaev | |
April 9, 2022 | Welterweight | Gilbert Burns | Khamzat Chimaev | Khamzat Chimaev | |
Oct. 30, 2021 | Welterweight | Li Jingliang | Khamzat Chimaev | Khamzat Chimaev | |
Sept. 19, 2020 | Middleweight | Khamzat Chimaev | Gerald Meerschaert | Khamzat Chimaev | |
July 25, 2020 | Welterweight | Khamzat Chimaev | Rhys McKee | Khamzat Chimaev | |
July 15, 2020 | Middleweight | John Phillips | Khamzat Chimaev | Khamzat Chimaev |