The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Basic Prediction
This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.
This lightweight title fight at UFC 284 is a rematch between champion Islam Makhachev and former featherweight king Alexander Volkanovski. The Great challenged Makhachev for the belt in February and lost a close decision, but his relentless pressure fighting style earned him a rematch. Though Volkanovski is moving up a weight class, his recent TKO of Yair Rodriguez shows his capability for a KO win. However, Makhachev's grappling pedigree and win streak present a stiff test. Volkanovski must avoid the Dagestani's takedowns to utilize his technical striking. While an upset is possible, Makhachev remains the heavy favorite according to WolfTicketsAI given his continued dominance since their first fight. This should be a tactical battle between two elite fighters.
| Stat | Islam Makhachev | Alexander Volkanovski | Weight Class Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Stats | ||||
| Age | 31 | 35 | 34 | |
| Height | 70" | 66" | 69" | |
| Reach | 70" | 71" | 72" | |
| Win Percentage | 96.00% | 92.86% | 89.85% | |
| Wins | 25 | 26 | ||
| Losses | 1 | 3 | ||
| Wins at Weight Class | 2 | 0 | ||
| Losses at Weight Class | 0 | 1 | ||
| Striking Stats | ||||
| Striking Accuracy | 71.94% | 60.18% | 63.94% | |
| Significant Striking Accuracy | 59.23% | 56.99% | 55.88% | |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.705 | 7.508 | 6.194 | |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 2.350 | 6.248 | 4.075 | |
| Knockdowns per Fight | 0.314 | 0.373 | 0.421 | |
| Striking Impact Differential | 27.14% | 60.86% | 29.73% | |
| Significant Striking Impact Differential | 11.07% | 49.79% | 20.12% | |
| Striking Output Differential | 26.29% | 62.43% | 30.09% | |
| Significant Striking Output Differential | 6.50% | 48.07% | 18.04% | |
| Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 40.46% | 64.96% | 58.32% | |
| Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 87.83% | 77.06% | 87.58% | |
| Striking Defense Percentage | 61.92% | 58.90% | 59.63% | |
| Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
| Submissions per Fight | 1.046 | 0.187 | 1.323 | |
| Takedowns per Fight | 3.243 | 1.865 | 2.542 | |
| Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 5.231 | 4.910 | 5.178 | |
| Takedown Defense | 10.00% | 44.44% | 42.04% | |
| Takedown Accuracy | 62.00% | 37.97% | 48.83% | |
| Head Stats | ||||
| Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.611 | 3.940 | 2.688 | |
| Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 3.145 | 7.922 | 5.586 | |
| Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.544 | 2.039 | 1.580 | |
| Body Stats | ||||
| Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.635 | 0.684 | 0.699 | |
| Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.704 | 0.986 | 0.935 | |
| Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.460 | 0.816 | 0.611 | |
| Leg Stats | ||||
| Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.105 | 1.624 | 0.688 | |
| Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.119 | 2.055 | 0.853 | |
| Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.265 | 0.506 | 0.364 | |
| Clinch Stats | ||||
| Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.467 | 0.580 | 0.611 | |
| Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.544 | 0.791 | 0.821 | |
| Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.237 | 0.319 | 0.298 | |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb. 11, 2023 | UFC Lightweight Title | Islam Makhachev | Alexander Volkanovski | Islam Makhachev | |
| Oct. 22, 2022 | UFC Lightweight Title | Charles Oliveira | Islam Makhachev | Islam Makhachev | |
| Feb. 26, 2022 | Catch Weight | Islam Makhachev | King Green | Islam Makhachev | |
| Oct. 30, 2021 | Lightweight | Islam Makhachev | Dan Hooker | Islam Makhachev | |
| July 17, 2021 | Lightweight | Islam Makhachev | Thiago Moises | Islam Makhachev | |
| March 6, 2021 | Lightweight | Islam Makhachev | Drew Dober | Islam Makhachev | |
| Sept. 7, 2019 | Lightweight | Islam Makhachev | Davi Ramos | Islam Makhachev | |
| April 20, 2019 | Lightweight | Islam Makhachev | Arman Tsarukyan | Islam Makhachev | |
| July 28, 2018 | Lightweight | Kajan Johnson | Islam Makhachev | Islam Makhachev | |
| Jan. 20, 2018 | Lightweight | Islam Makhachev | Gleison Tibau | Islam Makhachev | |
| Feb. 11, 2017 | Lightweight | Nik Lentz | Islam Makhachev | Islam Makhachev | |
| Sept. 17, 2016 | Lightweight | Chris Wade | Islam Makhachev | Islam Makhachev | |
| Oct. 3, 2015 | Lightweight | Adriano Martins | Islam Makhachev | Adriano Martins | |
| May 23, 2015 | Lightweight | Islam Makhachev | Leo Kuntz | Islam Makhachev |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 8, 2023 | UFC Featherweight Title | Alexander Volkanovski | Yair Rodriguez | Alexander Volkanovski | |
| Feb. 11, 2023 | UFC Lightweight Title | Islam Makhachev | Alexander Volkanovski | Islam Makhachev | |
| July 2, 2022 | UFC Featherweight Title | Alexander Volkanovski | Max Holloway | Alexander Volkanovski | |
| April 9, 2022 | UFC Featherweight Title | Alexander Volkanovski | Chan Sung Jung | Alexander Volkanovski | |
| Sept. 25, 2021 | UFC Featherweight Title | Alexander Volkanovski | Brian Ortega | Alexander Volkanovski | |
| July 11, 2020 | UFC Featherweight Title | Alexander Volkanovski | Max Holloway | Alexander Volkanovski | |
| Dec. 14, 2019 | UFC Featherweight Title | Max Holloway | Alexander Volkanovski | Alexander Volkanovski | |
| May 11, 2019 | Featherweight | Jose Aldo | Alexander Volkanovski | Alexander Volkanovski | |
| Dec. 29, 2018 | Featherweight | Chad Mendes | Alexander Volkanovski | Alexander Volkanovski | |
| July 14, 2018 | Featherweight | Darren Elkins | Alexander Volkanovski | Alexander Volkanovski | |
| Feb. 10, 2018 | Featherweight | Alexander Volkanovski | Jeremy Kennedy | Alexander Volkanovski | |
| Nov. 18, 2017 | Catch Weight | Alexander Volkanovski | Shane Young | Alexander Volkanovski | |
| June 10, 2017 | Featherweight | Alexander Volkanovski | Mizuto Hirota | Alexander Volkanovski | |
| Nov. 26, 2016 | Lightweight | Yusuke Kasuya | Alexander Volkanovski | Alexander Volkanovski |