The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Basic Prediction
This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.
| Stat | Dustin Poirier | Justin Gaethje | Weight Class Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Stats | ||||
| Age | 34 | 34 | 31 | |
| Height | 69" | 71" | 70" | |
| Reach | 72" | 70" | 72" | |
| Win Percentage | 80.56% | 85.71% | 80.18% | |
| Wins | 29 | 25 | ||
| Losses | 8 | 4 | ||
| Wins at Weight Class | 12 | 6 | ||
| Losses at Weight Class | 2 | 3 | ||
| Striking Stats | ||||
| Striking Accuracy | 54.78% | 60.57% | 49.07% | |
| Significant Striking Accuracy | 50.75% | 60.16% | 43.33% | |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 6.806 | 7.601 | 5.350 | |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.656 | 7.376 | 3.936 | |
| Knockdowns per Fight | 0.680 | 0.675 | 1.140 | |
| Striking Impact Differential | 10.11% | -2.18% | 1.55% | |
| Significant Striking Impact Differential | 13.32% | -2.91% | 0.11% | |
| Striking Output Differential | 12.71% | -43.27% | 3.09% | |
| Significant Striking Output Differential | 16.32% | -44.09% | 1.35% | |
| Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 78.80% | 118.58% | 89.72% | |
| Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 91.87% | 121.46% | 113.25% | |
| Striking Defense Percentage | 54.40% | 53.90% | 49.28% | |
| Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
| Submissions per Fight | 1.045 | 0.000 | 0.471 | |
| Takedowns per Fight | 1.464 | 0.135 | 1.512 | |
| Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 3.973 | 0.540 | 4.064 | |
| Takedown Defense | 60.47% | 33.33% | 86.78% | |
| Takedown Accuracy | 36.84% | 25.00% | 29.07% | |
| Head Stats | ||||
| Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 4.523 | 4.669 | 2.584 | |
| Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 9.667 | 9.112 | 6.471 | |
| Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 2.844 | 4.723 | 2.351 | |
| Body Stats | ||||
| Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.526 | 0.666 | 0.765 | |
| Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.739 | 0.828 | 1.116 | |
| Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.934 | 2.186 | 0.772 | |
| Leg Stats | ||||
| Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.606 | 2.042 | 0.586 | |
| Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.739 | 2.321 | 0.698 | |
| Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.579 | 0.756 | 0.563 | |
| Clinch Stats | ||||
| Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.864 | 0.891 | 0.384 | |
| Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.310 | 1.098 | 0.543 | |
| Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.533 | 0.702 | 0.385 | |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. 12, 2022 | Lightweight | Dustin Poirier | Michael Chandler | Dustin Poirier | |
| Dec. 11, 2021 | UFC Lightweight Title | Charles Oliveira | Dustin Poirier | Charles Oliveira | |
| July 10, 2021 | Lightweight | Dustin Poirier | Conor McGregor | Dustin Poirier | |
| Jan. 23, 2021 | Lightweight | Dustin Poirier | Conor McGregor | Dustin Poirier | |
| June 27, 2020 | Lightweight | Dustin Poirier | Dan Hooker | Dustin Poirier | |
| Sept. 7, 2019 | UFC Lightweight Title | Khabib Nurmagomedov | Dustin Poirier | Khabib Nurmagomedov | |
| April 13, 2019 | UFC Interim Lightweight Title | Max Holloway | Dustin Poirier | Dustin Poirier | |
| July 28, 2018 | Lightweight | Eddie Alvarez | Dustin Poirier | Dustin Poirier | |
| April 14, 2018 | Lightweight | Dustin Poirier | Justin Gaethje | Dustin Poirier | |
| Nov. 11, 2017 | Lightweight | Dustin Poirier | Anthony Pettis | Dustin Poirier | |
| May 13, 2017 | Lightweight | Eddie Alvarez | Dustin Poirier | None | |
| Feb. 11, 2017 | Lightweight | Dustin Poirier | Jim Miller | Dustin Poirier | |
| Sept. 17, 2016 | Lightweight | Dustin Poirier | Michael Johnson | Michael Johnson | |
| June 4, 2016 | Lightweight | Dustin Poirier | King Green | Dustin Poirier | |
| Jan. 2, 2016 | Lightweight | Dustin Poirier | Joe Duffy | Dustin Poirier | |
| June 6, 2015 | Lightweight | Dustin Poirier | Yancy Medeiros | Dustin Poirier | |
| April 4, 2015 | Lightweight | Dustin Poirier | Diego Ferreira | Dustin Poirier | |
| Sept. 27, 2014 | Featherweight | Dustin Poirier | Conor McGregor | Conor McGregor | |
| April 16, 2014 | Featherweight | Dustin Poirier | Akira Corassani | Dustin Poirier | |
| Dec. 28, 2013 | Featherweight | Dustin Poirier | Diego Brandao | Dustin Poirier | |
| Aug. 31, 2013 | Featherweight | Erik Koch | Dustin Poirier | Dustin Poirier | |
| Feb. 16, 2013 | Featherweight | Cub Swanson | Dustin Poirier | Cub Swanson | |
| Dec. 15, 2012 | Featherweight | Dustin Poirier | Jonathan Brookins | Dustin Poirier | |
| May 15, 2012 | Featherweight | Chan Sung Jung | Dustin Poirier | Chan Sung Jung | |
| Feb. 4, 2012 | Featherweight | Dustin Poirier | Max Holloway | Dustin Poirier | |
| Nov. 12, 2011 | Featherweight | Dustin Poirier | Pablo Garza | Dustin Poirier | |
| June 11, 2011 | Featherweight | Dustin Poirier | Jason Young | Dustin Poirier | |
| Jan. 1, 2011 | Featherweight | Dustin Poirier | Josh Grispi | Dustin Poirier |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 18, 2023 | Lightweight | Justin Gaethje | Rafael Fiziev | Justin Gaethje | |
| May 7, 2022 | Lightweight | Charles Oliveira | Justin Gaethje | Charles Oliveira | |
| Nov. 6, 2021 | Lightweight | Justin Gaethje | Michael Chandler | Justin Gaethje | |
| Oct. 24, 2020 | UFC Lightweight Title | Khabib Nurmagomedov | Justin Gaethje | Khabib Nurmagomedov | |
| May 9, 2020 | UFC Interim Lightweight Title | Tony Ferguson | Justin Gaethje | Justin Gaethje | |
| Sept. 14, 2019 | Lightweight | Donald Cerrone | Justin Gaethje | Justin Gaethje | |
| March 30, 2019 | Lightweight | Edson Barboza | Justin Gaethje | Justin Gaethje | |
| Aug. 25, 2018 | Lightweight | Justin Gaethje | James Vick | Justin Gaethje | |
| April 14, 2018 | Lightweight | Dustin Poirier | Justin Gaethje | Dustin Poirier | |
| Dec. 2, 2017 | Lightweight | Eddie Alvarez | Justin Gaethje | Eddie Alvarez | |
| July 7, 2017 | Lightweight | Michael Johnson | Justin Gaethje | Justin Gaethje |