Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja - UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Alexandre Pantoja by Decision - Split

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 609.00m
Weight Class: Flyweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Brandon Moreno
18
18
11
12.5
-200
Alexandre Pantoja
+165

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat Brandon Moreno Alexandre Pantoja
Main Stats
Age 29 33
Height 67" 65"
Reach 70" 67"
Win Percentage 77.78% 83.33%
Wins 21 26
Losses 7 5
Wins at Weight Class 2 0
Losses at Weight Class 2 0
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 48.27% 52.95%
Significant Striking Accuracy 40.84% 48.35%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.898 5.218
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.550 4.254
Knockdowns per Fight 0.288 0.374
Striking Impact Differential 13.07% 8.67%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 5.43% 8.75%
Striking Output Differential 27.43% 11.92%
Significant Striking Output Differential 19.21% 13.25%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 87.46% 82.64%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 118.78% 96.29%
Striking Defense Percentage 56.97% 54.78%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.576 1.246
Takedowns per Fight 1.799 1.371
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 3.958 3.365
Takedown Defense 47.22% 47.73%
Takedown Accuracy 45.45% 40.74%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.672 2.659
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 7.517 6.539
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.986 2.634
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.537 0.922
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.763 1.388
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.580 0.391
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.341 0.673
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.413 0.873
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.619 0.357
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.178 0.490
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.341 0.665
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.115 0.299
Brandon Moreno History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Jan. 21, 2023 UFC Flyweight Title Deiveson Figueiredo Brandon Moreno Brandon Moreno
July 30, 2022 UFC Interim Flyweight Title Brandon Moreno Kai Kara-France Brandon Moreno
Jan. 22, 2022 UFC Flyweight Title Brandon Moreno Deiveson Figueiredo Deiveson Figueiredo
June 12, 2021 UFC Flyweight Title Deiveson Figueiredo Brandon Moreno Brandon Moreno
Dec. 12, 2020 UFC Flyweight Title Deiveson Figueiredo Brandon Moreno None
Nov. 21, 2020 Flyweight Brandon Moreno Brandon Royval Brandon Moreno
March 14, 2020 Flyweight Jussier Formiga Brandon Moreno Brandon Moreno
Dec. 14, 2019 Flyweight Brandon Moreno Kai Kara-France Brandon Moreno
Sept. 21, 2019 Flyweight Brandon Moreno Askar Askarov None
May 19, 2018 Flyweight Brandon Moreno Alexandre Pantoja Alexandre Pantoja
Aug. 5, 2017 Flyweight Sergio Pettis Brandon Moreno Sergio Pettis
April 22, 2017 Flyweight Dustin Ortiz Brandon Moreno Brandon Moreno
Dec. 3, 2016 Flyweight Brandon Moreno Ryan Benoit Brandon Moreno
Oct. 1, 2016 Flyweight Louis Smolka Brandon Moreno Brandon Moreno
Alexandre Pantoja History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
July 30, 2022 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Alex Perez Alexandre Pantoja
Aug. 21, 2021 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Brandon Royval Alexandre Pantoja
Feb. 6, 2021 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Manel Kape Alexandre Pantoja
July 18, 2020 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Askar Askarov Askar Askarov
Dec. 21, 2019 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Matt Schnell Alexandre Pantoja
July 27, 2019 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Deiveson Figueiredo Deiveson Figueiredo
April 13, 2019 Flyweight Wilson Reis Alexandre Pantoja Alexandre Pantoja
Nov. 17, 2018 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Yuta Sasaki Alexandre Pantoja
May 19, 2018 Flyweight Brandon Moreno Alexandre Pantoja Alexandre Pantoja
Jan. 20, 2018 Flyweight Dustin Ortiz Alexandre Pantoja Dustin Ortiz
July 16, 2017 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Neil Seery Alexandre Pantoja
Jan. 28, 2017 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Eric Shelton Alexandre Pantoja