Kyle Nelson vs. Blake Bilder - UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Kyle Nelson by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Elevation: 302.00m
Weight Class: Featherweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Kyle Nelson
20
2
41.4
+165
Blake Bilder
15
-210

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat Kyle Nelson Blake Bilder
Main Stats
Age 32 32
Height 71" 68"
Reach 71" 68"
Win Percentage 72.22% 100.00%
Wins 14 8
Losses 5 1
Wins at Weight Class 1 1
Losses at Weight Class 3 0
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 49.33% 61.17%
Significant Striking Accuracy 44.53% 58.42%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.585 8.400
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 2.852 7.400
Knockdowns per Fight 0.000 0.000
Striking Impact Differential -38.50% 45.00%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -20.83% 31.00%
Striking Output Differential -45.50% 9.00%
Significant Striking Output Differential -26.33% -6.00%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 121.82% 92.06%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 143.43% 104.50%
Striking Defense Percentage 45.55% 59.18%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.978 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 1.711 1.000
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 7.333 7.000
Takedown Defense 57.14% 100.00%
Takedown Accuracy 23.33% 14.29%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 1.678 4.133
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 4.840 8.933
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.705 2.800
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.799 0.733
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.108 1.133
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.353 1.400
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.375 2.533
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.456 2.600
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.831 1.133
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.636 0.200
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.913 0.333
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.522 0.067
Kyle Nelson History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Feb. 4, 2023 Featherweight Dooho Choi Kyle Nelson None
July 23, 2022 Lightweight Jai Herbert Kyle Nelson Jai Herbert
Sept. 12, 2020 Featherweight Billy Quarantillo Kyle Nelson Billy Quarantillo
Sept. 21, 2019 Featherweight Marco Polo Reyes Kyle Nelson Kyle Nelson
May 4, 2019 Featherweight Kyle Nelson Matt Sayles Matt Sayles
Dec. 8, 2018 Lightweight Diego Ferreira Kyle Nelson Diego Ferreira
Blake Bilder History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Feb. 11, 2023 Featherweight Shane Young Blake Bilder Blake Bilder