The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Basic Prediction
This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.
| Stat | Chris Curtis | Kelvin Gastelum | Weight Class Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Stats | ||||
| Age | 35 | 31 | 32 | |
| Height | 70" | 69" | 73" | |
| Reach | 75" | 71" | 75" | |
| Win Percentage | 76.92% | 68.00% | 79.02% | |
| Wins | 30 | 19 | ||
| Losses | 9 | 8 | ||
| Wins at Weight Class | 4 | 5 | ||
| Losses at Weight Class | 1 | 6 | ||
| Striking Stats | ||||
| Striking Accuracy | 54.46% | 46.36% | 55.07% | |
| Significant Striking Accuracy | 52.73% | 41.59% | 48.54% | |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.951 | 4.477 | 5.782 | |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.484 | 3.527 | 4.077 | |
| Knockdowns per Fight | 0.914 | 0.498 | 0.986 | |
| Striking Impact Differential | -8.00% | 4.80% | 4.81% | |
| Significant Striking Impact Differential | -11.40% | 3.95% | 2.77% | |
| Striking Output Differential | -37.60% | 12.90% | 6.13% | |
| Significant Striking Output Differential | -41.60% | 10.80% | 3.42% | |
| Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 134.13% | 102.39% | 85.16% | |
| Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 145.56% | 126.12% | 106.88% | |
| Striking Defense Percentage | 54.58% | 57.89% | 50.09% | |
| Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
| Submissions per Fight | 0.000 | 0.111 | 0.575 | |
| Takedowns per Fight | 0.000 | 1.050 | 1.532 | |
| Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 0.000 | 3.261 | 4.034 | |
| Takedown Defense | 100.00% | 59.18% | 81.23% | |
| Takedown Accuracy | 0.00% | 32.20% | 33.41% | |
| Head Stats | ||||
| Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 3.575 | 2.322 | 2.774 | |
| Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 7.901 | 6.935 | 6.352 | |
| Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 3.839 | 2.060 | 2.377 | |
| Body Stats | ||||
| Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.666 | 0.649 | 0.834 | |
| Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 2.194 | 0.899 | 1.104 | |
| Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 1.442 | 0.656 | 0.790 | |
| Leg Stats | ||||
| Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.244 | 0.556 | 0.468 | |
| Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.305 | 0.645 | 0.562 | |
| Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 1.361 | 0.520 | 0.518 | |
| Clinch Stats | ||||
| Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.345 | 0.365 | 0.530 | |
| Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.386 | 0.579 | 0.700 | |
| Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.244 | 0.321 | 0.504 | |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec. 10, 2022 | Middleweight | Chris Curtis | Joaquin Buckley | Chris Curtis | |
| July 23, 2022 | Middleweight | Jack Hermansson | Chris Curtis | Jack Hermansson | |
| June 25, 2022 | Middleweight | Chris Curtis | Rodolfo Vieira | Chris Curtis | |
| Dec. 4, 2021 | Middleweight | Brendan Allen | Chris Curtis | Chris Curtis | |
| Nov. 6, 2021 | Middleweight | Phil Hawes | Chris Curtis | Chris Curtis |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 21, 2021 | Middleweight | Jared Cannonier | Kelvin Gastelum | Jared Cannonier | |
| April 17, 2021 | Middleweight | Robert Whittaker | Kelvin Gastelum | Robert Whittaker | |
| Feb. 13, 2021 | Middleweight | Kelvin Gastelum | Ian Heinisch | Kelvin Gastelum | |
| July 18, 2020 | Middleweight | Jack Hermansson | Kelvin Gastelum | Jack Hermansson | |
| Nov. 2, 2019 | Middleweight | Kelvin Gastelum | Darren Till | Darren Till | |
| April 13, 2019 | UFC Interim Middleweight Title | Kelvin Gastelum | Israel Adesanya | Israel Adesanya | |
| May 12, 2018 | Middleweight | Jacare Souza | Kelvin Gastelum | Kelvin Gastelum | |
| Nov. 25, 2017 | Middleweight | Michael Bisping | Kelvin Gastelum | Kelvin Gastelum | |
| July 22, 2017 | Middleweight | Chris Weidman | Kelvin Gastelum | Chris Weidman | |
| March 11, 2017 | Middleweight | Vitor Belfort | Kelvin Gastelum | None | |
| Dec. 10, 2016 | Middleweight | Tim Kennedy | Kelvin Gastelum | Kelvin Gastelum | |
| July 9, 2016 | Welterweight | Johny Hendricks | Kelvin Gastelum | Kelvin Gastelum | |
| Nov. 21, 2015 | Welterweight | Neil Magny | Kelvin Gastelum | Neil Magny | |
| June 13, 2015 | Middleweight | Kelvin Gastelum | Nate Marquardt | Kelvin Gastelum | |
| Jan. 31, 2015 | Welterweight | Tyron Woodley | Kelvin Gastelum | Tyron Woodley | |
| Nov. 15, 2014 | Welterweight | Jake Ellenberger | Kelvin Gastelum | Kelvin Gastelum | |
| June 28, 2014 | Welterweight | Kelvin Gastelum | Nicholas Musoke | Kelvin Gastelum | |
| March 15, 2014 | Welterweight | Kelvin Gastelum | Rick Story | Kelvin Gastelum | |
| Aug. 28, 2013 | Welterweight | Kelvin Gastelum | Brian Melancon | Kelvin Gastelum | |
| April 13, 2013 | Ultimate Fighter 17 Middleweight Tournament Title | Uriah Hall | Kelvin Gastelum | Kelvin Gastelum |