Jennifer Maia vs. Casey O'Neill - UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Jennifer Maia by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: London, England, United Kingdom
Elevation: 11.00m
Weight Class: Women's Flyweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Jennifer Maia
+150
Casey O'Neill
20
15
14.3
-185

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat Jennifer Maia Casey O'Neill
Main Stats
Age 34 25
Height 64" 66"
Reach 64" 69"
Win Percentage 68.97% 100.00%
Wins 21 9
Losses 9 1
Wins at Weight Class 5 4
Losses at Weight Class 4 0
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 43.63% 64.47%
Significant Striking Accuracy 37.85% 57.29%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.151 14.364
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.980 8.649
Knockdowns per Fight 0.000 0.000
Striking Impact Differential -28.30% 89.25%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -5.50% 46.00%
Striking Output Differential -19.80% 103.25%
Significant Striking Output Differential 5.10% 46.50%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 118.18% 46.70%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 146.39% 74.06%
Striking Defense Percentage 57.26% 57.78%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.100 0.971
Takedowns per Fight 0.301 2.588
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 1.004 5.823
Takedown Defense 78.95% 66.67%
Takedown Accuracy 30.00% 44.44%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.763 6.858
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 8.971 13.113
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.442 3.365
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.649 1.122
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.917 1.316
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.077 1.035
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.569 0.669
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.629 0.669
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.830 0.280
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.535 0.345
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.709 0.475
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.288 0.712
Jennifer Maia History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Nov. 19, 2022 Women's Flyweight Jennifer Maia Maryna Moroz Jennifer Maia
March 26, 2022 Women's Flyweight Jennifer Maia Manon Fiorot Manon Fiorot
Jan. 15, 2022 Women's Flyweight Katlyn Cerminara Jennifer Maia Katlyn Cerminara
July 10, 2021 Women's Flyweight Jennifer Maia Jessica Eye Jennifer Maia
Nov. 21, 2020 UFC Women's Flyweight Title Valentina Shevchenko Jennifer Maia Valentina Shevchenko
Aug. 1, 2020 Women's Flyweight Joanne Wood Jennifer Maia Jennifer Maia
Nov. 2, 2019 Women's Flyweight Katlyn Cerminara Jennifer Maia Katlyn Cerminara
July 20, 2019 Women's Flyweight Roxanne Modafferi Jennifer Maia Jennifer Maia
March 23, 2019 Women's Flyweight Alexis Davis Jennifer Maia Jennifer Maia
July 14, 2018 Women's Flyweight Liz Carmouche Jennifer Maia Liz Carmouche
Casey O'Neill History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Feb. 12, 2022 Women's Flyweight Roxanne Modafferi Casey O'Neill Casey O'Neill
Oct. 2, 2021 Women's Flyweight Antonina Shevchenko Casey O'Neill Casey O'Neill
June 19, 2021 Women's Flyweight Casey O'Neill Lara Procopio Casey O'Neill
Feb. 20, 2021 Women's Flyweight Shana Dobson Casey O'Neill Casey O'Neill