The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Basic Prediction
This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.
| Stat | Nate Diaz | Tony Ferguson | Weight Class Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Stats | ||||
| Age | 37 | 38 | 33 | |
| Height | 72" | 71" | 72" | |
| Reach | 76" | 76" | 74" | |
| Win Percentage | 61.76% | 78.79% | 78.31% | |
| Wins | 22 | 26 | ||
| Losses | 13 | 8 | ||
| Wins at Weight Class | 4 | 0 | ||
| Losses at Weight Class | 5 | 0 | ||
| Striking Stats | ||||
| Striking Accuracy | 55.46% | 48.21% | 51.93% | |
| Significant Striking Accuracy | 44.44% | 45.28% | 46.22% | |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 7.469 | 5.822 | 5.786 | |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.517 | 5.117 | 4.399 | |
| Knockdowns per Fight | 0.188 | 0.205 | 0.855 | |
| Striking Impact Differential | 29.42% | 14.30% | 3.56% | |
| Significant Striking Impact Differential | 6.73% | 14.40% | 1.17% | |
| Striking Output Differential | 47.12% | 20.80% | 4.47% | |
| Significant Striking Output Differential | 21.54% | 22.65% | 1.79% | |
| Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 61.02% | 97.27% | 97.22% | |
| Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 98.34% | 106.22% | 118.52% | |
| Striking Defense Percentage | 52.81% | 58.80% | 53.63% | |
| Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
| Submissions per Fight | 1.174 | 1.091 | 0.568 | |
| Takedowns per Fight | 0.845 | 0.409 | 1.260 | |
| Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 3.193 | 0.954 | 3.909 | |
| Takedown Defense | 131.71% | 50.00% | 69.59% | |
| Takedown Accuracy | 26.47% | 42.86% | 37.96% | |
| Head Stats | ||||
| Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 3.365 | 3.181 | 2.890 | |
| Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 8.493 | 8.649 | 7.346 | |
| Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 2.345 | 2.491 | 2.744 | |
| Body Stats | ||||
| Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.758 | 0.914 | 0.829 | |
| Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.149 | 1.409 | 1.196 | |
| Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.698 | 0.754 | 0.813 | |
| Leg Stats | ||||
| Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.394 | 1.023 | 0.680 | |
| Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.523 | 1.245 | 0.809 | |
| Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.927 | 0.564 | 0.647 | |
| Clinch Stats | ||||
| Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.064 | 0.132 | 0.465 | |
| Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.484 | 0.214 | 0.647 | |
| Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.679 | 0.055 | 0.405 | |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 12, 2021 | Welterweight | Leon Edwards | Nate Diaz | Leon Edwards | |
| Nov. 2, 2019 | Welterweight | Jorge Masvidal | Nate Diaz | Jorge Masvidal | |
| Aug. 17, 2019 | Welterweight | Anthony Pettis | Nate Diaz | Nate Diaz | |
| Aug. 20, 2016 | Welterweight | Nate Diaz | Conor McGregor | Conor McGregor | |
| March 5, 2016 | Welterweight | Conor McGregor | Nate Diaz | Nate Diaz | |
| Dec. 19, 2015 | Lightweight | Michael Johnson | Nate Diaz | Nate Diaz | |
| Dec. 13, 2014 | Lightweight | Rafael Dos Anjos | Nate Diaz | Rafael Dos Anjos | |
| Nov. 30, 2013 | Lightweight | Gray Maynard | Nate Diaz | Nate Diaz | |
| April 20, 2013 | Lightweight | Nate Diaz | Josh Thomson | Josh Thomson | |
| Dec. 8, 2012 | UFC Lightweight Title | Benson Henderson | Nate Diaz | Benson Henderson | |
| May 5, 2012 | Lightweight | Nate Diaz | Jim Miller | Nate Diaz | |
| Dec. 30, 2011 | Lightweight | Nate Diaz | Donald Cerrone | Nate Diaz | |
| Sept. 24, 2011 | Lightweight | Nate Diaz | Takanori Gomi | Nate Diaz | |
| April 30, 2011 | Welterweight | Nate Diaz | Rory MacDonald | Rory MacDonald | |
| Jan. 1, 2011 | Welterweight | Nate Diaz | Dong Hyun Kim | Dong Hyun Kim | |
| Aug. 28, 2010 | Welterweight | Nate Diaz | Marcus Davis | Nate Diaz | |
| March 27, 2010 | Welterweight | Nate Diaz | Rory Markham | Nate Diaz | |
| Jan. 11, 2010 | Lightweight | Gray Maynard | Nate Diaz | Gray Maynard | |
| Sept. 16, 2009 | Lightweight | Nate Diaz | Melvin Guillard | Nate Diaz | |
| June 20, 2009 | Lightweight | Joe Stevenson | Nate Diaz | Joe Stevenson | |
| Jan. 31, 2009 | Lightweight | Clay Guida | Nate Diaz | Clay Guida | |
| Sept. 17, 2008 | Lightweight | Nate Diaz | Josh Neer | Nate Diaz | |
| April 2, 2008 | Lightweight | Nate Diaz | Kurt Pellegrino | Nate Diaz | |
| Jan. 23, 2008 | Lightweight | Nate Diaz | Alvin Robinson | Nate Diaz | |
| Sept. 19, 2007 | Lightweight | Nate Diaz | Junior Assuncao | Nate Diaz | |
| June 23, 2007 | Ultimate Fighter 5 Lightweight Tournament Title | Nate Diaz | Manvel Gamburyan | Nate Diaz |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2022 | Lightweight | Michael Chandler | Tony Ferguson | Michael Chandler | |
| May 15, 2021 | Lightweight | Tony Ferguson | Beneil Dariush | Beneil Dariush | |
| Dec. 12, 2020 | Lightweight | Tony Ferguson | Charles Oliveira | Charles Oliveira | |
| May 9, 2020 | UFC Interim Lightweight Title | Tony Ferguson | Justin Gaethje | Justin Gaethje | |
| June 8, 2019 | Lightweight | Tony Ferguson | Donald Cerrone | Tony Ferguson | |
| Oct. 6, 2018 | Lightweight | Tony Ferguson | Anthony Pettis | Tony Ferguson | |
| Oct. 7, 2017 | UFC Interim Lightweight Title | Tony Ferguson | Kevin Lee | Tony Ferguson | |
| Nov. 5, 2016 | Lightweight | Rafael Dos Anjos | Tony Ferguson | Tony Ferguson | |
| July 13, 2016 | Lightweight | Tony Ferguson | Lando Vannata | Tony Ferguson | |
| Dec. 11, 2015 | Lightweight | Edson Barboza | Tony Ferguson | Tony Ferguson | |
| July 15, 2015 | Lightweight | Josh Thomson | Tony Ferguson | Tony Ferguson | |
| Feb. 28, 2015 | Lightweight | Tony Ferguson | Gleison Tibau | Tony Ferguson | |
| Dec. 6, 2014 | Lightweight | Tony Ferguson | Abel Trujillo | Tony Ferguson | |
| Aug. 30, 2014 | Lightweight | Tony Ferguson | Danny Castillo | Tony Ferguson | |
| May 24, 2014 | Lightweight | Tony Ferguson | Katsunori Kikuno | Tony Ferguson | |
| Oct. 19, 2013 | Lightweight | Tony Ferguson | Mike Rio | Tony Ferguson | |
| May 5, 2012 | Lightweight | Tony Ferguson | Michael Johnson | Michael Johnson | |
| Dec. 3, 2011 | Lightweight | Tony Ferguson | Yves Edwards | Tony Ferguson | |
| Sept. 24, 2011 | Lightweight | Tony Ferguson | Aaron Riley | Tony Ferguson | |
| June 4, 2011 | Ultimate Fighter 13 Welterweight Tournament Title | Ramsey Nijem | Tony Ferguson | Tony Ferguson |