Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards - UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Leon Edwards by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
Elevation: m
Weight Class: UFC Welterweight Title
Wikipedia: None

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Kamaru Usman
30
18
0.0
-380
Leon Edwards
+260

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat Kamaru Usman Leon Edwards
Main Stats
Age 35 30
Height 72" 74"
Reach 76" 74"
Win Percentage 95.24% 86.36%
Wins 20 20
Losses 2 3
Wins at Weight Class 6 0
Losses at Weight Class 0 0
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 64.49% 56.88%
Significant Striking Accuracy 52.57% 49.08%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 8.272 3.795
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.658 2.619
Knockdowns per Fight 0.600 0.281
Striking Impact Differential 81.33% -9.43%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 34.47% 7.14%
Striking Output Differential 93.40% -9.29%
Significant Striking Output Differential 43.33% 8.36%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 46.30% 75.56%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 78.78% 100.72%
Striking Defense Percentage 58.63% 55.09%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.120 0.351
Takedowns per Fight 3.001 1.476
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 6.123 4.217
Takedown Defense 100.00% 42.55%
Takedown Accuracy 49.02% 35.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.873 1.729
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 6.679 4.189
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.553 1.190
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 1.397 0.520
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.737 0.726
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.664 0.586
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.388 0.370
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.444 0.422
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.372 0.375
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.796 0.394
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.956 0.492
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.400 0.347
Kamaru Usman History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Nov. 6, 2021 UFC Welterweight Title Kamaru Usman Colby Covington Kamaru Usman
April 24, 2021 UFC Welterweight Title Kamaru Usman Jorge Masvidal Kamaru Usman
Feb. 13, 2021 UFC Welterweight Title Kamaru Usman Gilbert Burns Kamaru Usman
July 11, 2020 UFC Welterweight Title Kamaru Usman Jorge Masvidal Kamaru Usman
Dec. 14, 2019 UFC Welterweight Title Kamaru Usman Colby Covington Kamaru Usman
March 2, 2019 UFC Welterweight Title Tyron Woodley Kamaru Usman Kamaru Usman
Nov. 30, 2018 Welterweight Rafael Dos Anjos Kamaru Usman Kamaru Usman
May 19, 2018 Welterweight Demian Maia Kamaru Usman Kamaru Usman
Jan. 14, 2018 Welterweight Kamaru Usman Emil Meek Kamaru Usman
Sept. 16, 2017 Welterweight Kamaru Usman Sergio Moraes Kamaru Usman
April 8, 2017 Welterweight Kamaru Usman Sean Strickland Kamaru Usman
Nov. 19, 2016 Welterweight Warlley Alves Kamaru Usman Kamaru Usman
July 23, 2016 Welterweight Kamaru Usman Alexander Yakovlev Kamaru Usman
Dec. 19, 2015 Welterweight Kamaru Usman Leon Edwards Kamaru Usman
July 12, 2015 Ultimate Fighter 21 Welterweight Tournament Title Kamaru Usman Hayder Hassan Kamaru Usman
Leon Edwards History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
June 12, 2021 Welterweight Leon Edwards Nate Diaz Leon Edwards
March 13, 2021 Welterweight Leon Edwards Belal Muhammad None
July 20, 2019 Welterweight Rafael Dos Anjos Leon Edwards Leon Edwards
March 16, 2019 Welterweight Leon Edwards Gunnar Nelson Leon Edwards
June 23, 2018 Welterweight Donald Cerrone Leon Edwards Leon Edwards
March 17, 2018 Welterweight Leon Edwards Peter Sobotta Leon Edwards
Sept. 2, 2017 Welterweight Leon Edwards Bryan Barberena Leon Edwards
March 18, 2017 Welterweight Leon Edwards Vicente Luque Leon Edwards
Oct. 8, 2016 Welterweight Leon Edwards Albert Tumenov Leon Edwards
May 8, 2016 Welterweight Leon Edwards Dominic Waters Leon Edwards
Dec. 19, 2015 Welterweight Kamaru Usman Leon Edwards Kamaru Usman
July 18, 2015 Welterweight Leon Edwards Pawel Pawlak Leon Edwards
April 11, 2015 Welterweight Seth Baczynski Leon Edwards Leon Edwards
Nov. 8, 2014 Welterweight Claudio Silva Leon Edwards Claudio Silva