Drew Dober vs. Rafael Alves - UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Drew Dober by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: Dallas, Texas, USA
Elevation: m
Weight Class: Lightweight
Wikipedia: None

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Drew Dober
23
15
9.5
-230
Rafael Alves
+140

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat Drew Dober Rafael Alves
Main Stats
Age 33 31
Height 68" 68"
Reach 70" 68"
Win Percentage 68.57% 66.67%
Wins 25 20
Losses 11 11
Wins at Weight Class 9 1
Losses at Weight Class 7 1
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 47.27% 52.50%
Significant Striking Accuracy 40.92% 48.65%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.850 2.500
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.399 2.143
Knockdowns per Fight 0.602 0.893
Striking Impact Differential -1.28% -51.00%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 1.39% -11.50%
Striking Output Differential 13.00% -76.50%
Significant Striking Output Differential 15.83% -32.50%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 82.17% 211.90%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 104.86% 222.22%
Striking Defense Percentage 52.15% 57.55%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.100 1.786
Takedowns per Fight 0.802 0.000
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 4.513 0.893
Takedown Defense 85.71% 100.00%
Takedown Accuracy 17.78% 0.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.942 1.369
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 8.765 3.452
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.989 1.786
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.876 0.417
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.264 0.476
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.916 1.012
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.582 0.357
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.722 0.476
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.328 0.714
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.649 0.119
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.983 0.119
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.522 0.000
Drew Dober History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
March 12, 2022 Lightweight Drew Dober Terrance McKinney Drew Dober
June 12, 2021 Lightweight Drew Dober Brad Riddell Brad Riddell
March 6, 2021 Lightweight Islam Makhachev Drew Dober Islam Makhachev
May 13, 2020 Lightweight Alexander Hernandez Drew Dober Drew Dober
Jan. 18, 2020 Lightweight Drew Dober Nasrat Haqparast Drew Dober
June 29, 2019 Lightweight Drew Dober Marco Polo Reyes Drew Dober
March 9, 2019 Lightweight Beneil Dariush Drew Dober Beneil Dariush
Aug. 25, 2018 Lightweight Drew Dober Jon Tuck Drew Dober
Jan. 27, 2018 Welterweight Drew Dober Frank Camacho Drew Dober
July 29, 2017 Lightweight Joshua Burkman Drew Dober Drew Dober
Dec. 10, 2016 Lightweight Olivier Aubin-Mercier Drew Dober Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Sept. 10, 2016 Lightweight Drew Dober Jason Gonzalez Drew Dober
Jan. 2, 2016 Lightweight Scott Holtzman Drew Dober Drew Dober
June 13, 2015 Lightweight Efrain Escudero Drew Dober Efrain Escudero
March 21, 2015 Lightweight Leandro Silva Drew Dober None
Dec. 13, 2014 Lightweight Jamie Varner Drew Dober Drew Dober
May 31, 2014 Lightweight Nick Hein Drew Dober Nick Hein
Nov. 30, 2013 Welterweight Sean Spencer Drew Dober Sean Spencer
Rafael Alves History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Nov. 13, 2021 Lightweight Marc Diakiese Rafael Alves Rafael Alves
May 22, 2021 Lightweight Rafael Alves Damir Ismagulov Damir Ismagulov