Alexandre Pantoja vs. Alex Perez - UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Alexandre Pantoja by Submission

Fight Info:
Location: Dallas, Texas, USA
Elevation: m
Weight Class: Flyweight
Wikipedia: None

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Alexandre Pantoja
22
14
12.0
-205
Alex Perez
+137

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat Alexandre Pantoja Alex Perez
Main Stats
Age 32 30
Height 65" 66"
Reach 67" 65"
Win Percentage 82.76% 80.00%
Wins 25 24
Losses 5 7
Wins at Weight Class 8 4
Losses at Weight Class 3 1
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 52.81% 58.77%
Significant Striking Accuracy 48.14% 48.63%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.217 7.689
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.241 4.628
Knockdowns per Fight 0.379 0.840
Striking Impact Differential 9.64% 20.00%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 9.73% 10.50%
Striking Output Differential 13.18% 21.75%
Significant Striking Output Differential 14.64% 9.88%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 83.06% 66.75%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 97.02% 107.66%
Striking Defense Percentage 55.19% 61.95%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 1.136 1.120
Takedowns per Fight 1.262 3.079
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 3.282 6.719
Takedown Defense 48.84% 20.00%
Takedown Accuracy 38.46% 45.83%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.634 2.837
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 6.530 7.036
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.592 2.202
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.926 0.597
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.397 0.989
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.396 0.597
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.682 1.194
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.884 1.493
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.353 0.261
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.488 0.728
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.665 1.008
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.303 0.187
Alexandre Pantoja History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Aug. 21, 2021 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Brandon Royval Alexandre Pantoja
Feb. 6, 2021 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Manel Kape Alexandre Pantoja
July 18, 2020 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Askar Askarov Askar Askarov
Dec. 21, 2019 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Matt Schnell Alexandre Pantoja
July 27, 2019 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Deiveson Figueiredo Deiveson Figueiredo
April 13, 2019 Flyweight Wilson Reis Alexandre Pantoja Alexandre Pantoja
Nov. 17, 2018 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Yuta Sasaki Alexandre Pantoja
May 19, 2018 Flyweight Brandon Moreno Alexandre Pantoja Alexandre Pantoja
Jan. 20, 2018 Flyweight Dustin Ortiz Alexandre Pantoja Dustin Ortiz
July 16, 2017 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Neil Seery Alexandre Pantoja
Jan. 28, 2017 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Eric Shelton Alexandre Pantoja
Alex Perez History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Nov. 21, 2020 UFC Flyweight Title Deiveson Figueiredo Alex Perez Deiveson Figueiredo
June 6, 2020 Flyweight Jussier Formiga Alex Perez Alex Perez
Jan. 25, 2020 Flyweight Jordan Espinosa Alex Perez Alex Perez
March 30, 2019 Bantamweight Alex Perez Mark De La Rosa Alex Perez
Nov. 30, 2018 Flyweight Joseph Benavidez Alex Perez Joseph Benavidez
Aug. 4, 2018 Flyweight Alex Perez Jose Torres Alex Perez
Feb. 24, 2018 Flyweight Eric Shelton Alex Perez Alex Perez
Dec. 9, 2017 Bantamweight Carls John De Tomas Alex Perez Alex Perez