The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Basic Prediction
This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.
| Stat | Charles Oliveira | Justin Gaethje | Weight Class Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Stats | ||||
| Age | 32 | 33 | 32 | |
| Height | 70" | 71" | 70" | |
| Reach | 74" | 70" | 72" | |
| Win Percentage | 80.00% | 88.46% | 80.54% | |
| Wins | 33 | 23 | ||
| Losses | 8 | 4 | ||
| Wins at Weight Class | 11 | 5 | ||
| Losses at Weight Class | 4 | 2 | ||
| Striking Stats | ||||
| Striking Accuracy | 61.66% | 60.44% | 52.04% | |
| Significant Striking Accuracy | 53.22% | 60.05% | 45.90% | |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.069 | 7.737 | 5.835 | |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.442 | 7.500 | 4.325 | |
| Knockdowns per Fight | 0.441 | 0.647 | 1.791 | |
| Striking Impact Differential | 6.38% | -2.33% | 3.46% | |
| Significant Striking Impact Differential | 2.17% | -3.22% | 1.51% | |
| Striking Output Differential | 3.31% | -51.33% | 7.22% | |
| Significant Striking Output Differential | -1.03% | -52.56% | 4.78% | |
| Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 70.79% | 126.88% | 99.08% | |
| Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 101.14% | 130.32% | 125.44% | |
| Striking Defense Percentage | 52.63% | 55.58% | 54.61% | |
| Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
| Submissions per Fight | 2.794 | 0.000 | 0.636 | |
| Takedowns per Fight | 2.500 | 0.000 | 1.746 | |
| Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 6.030 | 0.162 | 4.738 | |
| Takedown Defense | 75.00% | 35.71% | 81.56% | |
| Takedown Accuracy | 41.46% | 0.00% | 31.90% | |
| Head Stats | ||||
| Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.990 | 4.580 | 2.921 | |
| Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 4.466 | 9.149 | 7.212 | |
| Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 2.280 | 5.054 | 2.320 | |
| Body Stats | ||||
| Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.907 | 0.614 | 0.768 | |
| Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.338 | 0.797 | 1.158 | |
| Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.588 | 1.940 | 0.765 | |
| Leg Stats | ||||
| Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.544 | 2.306 | 0.637 | |
| Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.662 | 2.543 | 0.779 | |
| Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.265 | 0.819 | 0.578 | |
| Clinch Stats | ||||
| Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.696 | 0.797 | 0.429 | |
| Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.951 | 0.981 | 0.599 | |
| Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.279 | 0.582 | 0.385 | |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec. 11, 2021 | UFC Lightweight Title | Charles Oliveira | Dustin Poirier | Charles Oliveira | |
| May 15, 2021 | UFC Lightweight Title | Charles Oliveira | Michael Chandler | Charles Oliveira | |
| Dec. 12, 2020 | Lightweight | Tony Ferguson | Charles Oliveira | Charles Oliveira | |
| March 14, 2020 | Lightweight | Kevin Lee | Charles Oliveira | Charles Oliveira | |
| Nov. 16, 2019 | Lightweight | Charles Oliveira | Jared Gordon | Charles Oliveira | |
| May 18, 2019 | Lightweight | Charles Oliveira | Nik Lentz | Charles Oliveira | |
| Feb. 2, 2019 | Lightweight | Charles Oliveira | David Teymur | Charles Oliveira | |
| Dec. 15, 2018 | Lightweight | Jim Miller | Charles Oliveira | Charles Oliveira | |
| Sept. 22, 2018 | Lightweight | Charles Oliveira | Christos Giagos | Charles Oliveira | |
| June 9, 2018 | Lightweight | Clay Guida | Charles Oliveira | Charles Oliveira | |
| Dec. 2, 2017 | Lightweight | Charles Oliveira | Paul Felder | Paul Felder | |
| April 8, 2017 | Lightweight | Will Brooks | Charles Oliveira | Charles Oliveira | |
| Nov. 5, 2016 | Featherweight | Ricardo Lamas | Charles Oliveira | Ricardo Lamas | |
| Aug. 27, 2016 | Featherweight | Anthony Pettis | Charles Oliveira | Anthony Pettis | |
| Dec. 19, 2015 | Featherweight | Charles Oliveira | Myles Jury | Charles Oliveira | |
| Aug. 23, 2015 | Featherweight | Max Holloway | Charles Oliveira | Max Holloway | |
| May 30, 2015 | Featherweight | Nik Lentz | Charles Oliveira | Charles Oliveira | |
| Dec. 12, 2014 | Featherweight | Jeremy Stephens | Charles Oliveira | Charles Oliveira | |
| June 28, 2014 | Featherweight | Hatsu Hioki | Charles Oliveira | Charles Oliveira | |
| Feb. 15, 2014 | Featherweight | Charles Oliveira | Andy Ogle | Charles Oliveira | |
| July 6, 2013 | Featherweight | Frankie Edgar | Charles Oliveira | Frankie Edgar | |
| Sept. 22, 2012 | Featherweight | Cub Swanson | Charles Oliveira | Cub Swanson | |
| June 1, 2012 | Featherweight | Jonathan Brookins | Charles Oliveira | Charles Oliveira | |
| Jan. 28, 2012 | Featherweight | Charles Oliveira | Eric Wisely | Charles Oliveira | |
| Aug. 14, 2011 | Lightweight | Donald Cerrone | Charles Oliveira | Donald Cerrone | |
| June 26, 2011 | Lightweight | Nik Lentz | Charles Oliveira | None | |
| Dec. 11, 2010 | Lightweight | Jim Miller | Charles Oliveira | Jim Miller | |
| Sept. 15, 2010 | Lightweight | Efrain Escudero | Charles Oliveira | Charles Oliveira | |
| Aug. 1, 2010 | Lightweight | Darren Elkins | Charles Oliveira | Charles Oliveira |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. 6, 2021 | Lightweight | Justin Gaethje | Michael Chandler | Justin Gaethje | |
| Oct. 24, 2020 | UFC Lightweight Title | Khabib Nurmagomedov | Justin Gaethje | Khabib Nurmagomedov | |
| May 9, 2020 | UFC Interim Lightweight Title | Tony Ferguson | Justin Gaethje | Justin Gaethje | |
| Sept. 14, 2019 | Lightweight | Donald Cerrone | Justin Gaethje | Justin Gaethje | |
| March 30, 2019 | Lightweight | Edson Barboza | Justin Gaethje | Justin Gaethje | |
| Aug. 25, 2018 | Lightweight | Justin Gaethje | James Vick | Justin Gaethje | |
| April 14, 2018 | Lightweight | Dustin Poirier | Justin Gaethje | Dustin Poirier | |
| Dec. 2, 2017 | Lightweight | Eddie Alvarez | Justin Gaethje | Eddie Alvarez | |
| July 7, 2017 | Lightweight | Michael Johnson | Justin Gaethje | Justin Gaethje |