The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Basic Prediction
This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.
| Stat | Colby Covington | Jorge Masvidal | Weight Class Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Stats | ||||
| Age | 34 | 37 | 32 | |
| Height | 71" | 71" | 72" | |
| Reach | 72" | 74" | 74" | |
| Win Percentage | 84.21% | 70.00% | 78.54% | |
| Wins | 17 | 35 | ||
| Losses | 3 | 16 | ||
| Wins at Weight Class | 10 | 7 | ||
| Losses at Weight Class | 1 | 4 | ||
| Striking Stats | ||||
| Striking Accuracy | 50.46% | 56.82% | 50.89% | |
| Significant Striking Accuracy | 38.42% | 49.86% | 45.28% | |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 7.364 | 5.863 | 5.701 | |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.136 | 4.195 | 4.356 | |
| Knockdowns per Fight | 0.067 | 0.532 | 0.840 | |
| Striking Impact Differential | 48.36% | 11.65% | 4.00% | |
| Significant Striking Impact Differential | 16.64% | 14.95% | 2.13% | |
| Striking Output Differential | 99.29% | 12.75% | 5.44% | |
| Significant Striking Output Differential | 59.71% | 15.75% | 3.26% | |
| Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 54.83% | 74.51% | 97.97% | |
| Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 95.02% | 99.06% | 119.85% | |
| Striking Defense Percentage | 55.96% | 57.94% | 54.71% | |
| Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
| Submissions per Fight | 0.134 | 0.414 | 0.552 | |
| Takedowns per Fight | 4.096 | 1.005 | 1.262 | |
| Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 8.797 | 1.893 | 3.884 | |
| Takedown Defense | 38.89% | 36.49% | 67.42% | |
| Takedown Accuracy | 46.56% | 53.13% | 39.50% | |
| Head Stats | ||||
| Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 2.834 | 2.535 | 2.895 | |
| Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 9.007 | 6.226 | 7.490 | |
| Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 2.059 | 1.684 | 2.801 | |
| Body Stats | ||||
| Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.672 | 1.037 | 0.799 | |
| Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.039 | 1.337 | 1.167 | |
| Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.770 | 0.804 | 0.760 | |
| Leg Stats | ||||
| Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.631 | 0.623 | 0.662 | |
| Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.721 | 0.852 | 0.784 | |
| Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.264 | 0.528 | 0.653 | |
| Clinch Stats | ||||
| Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.452 | 0.745 | 0.477 | |
| Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.672 | 0.982 | 0.670 | |
| Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.345 | 0.426 | 0.399 | |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. 6, 2021 | UFC Welterweight Title | Kamaru Usman | Colby Covington | Kamaru Usman | |
| Sept. 19, 2020 | Welterweight | Colby Covington | Tyron Woodley | Colby Covington | |
| Dec. 14, 2019 | UFC Welterweight Title | Kamaru Usman | Colby Covington | Kamaru Usman | |
| Aug. 3, 2019 | Welterweight | Colby Covington | Robbie Lawler | Colby Covington | |
| June 9, 2018 | UFC Interim Welterweight Title | Rafael Dos Anjos | Colby Covington | Colby Covington | |
| Oct. 28, 2017 | Welterweight | Demian Maia | Colby Covington | Colby Covington | |
| June 17, 2017 | Welterweight | Dong Hyun Kim | Colby Covington | Colby Covington | |
| Dec. 17, 2016 | Welterweight | Bryan Barberena | Colby Covington | Colby Covington | |
| Aug. 20, 2016 | Welterweight | Colby Covington | Max Griffin | Colby Covington | |
| June 18, 2016 | Welterweight | Colby Covington | Jonathan Meunier | Colby Covington | |
| Dec. 12, 2015 | Welterweight | Warlley Alves | Colby Covington | Warlley Alves | |
| May 23, 2015 | Welterweight | Mike Pyle | Colby Covington | Colby Covington | |
| Nov. 8, 2014 | Welterweight | Wagner Silva | Colby Covington | Colby Covington | |
| Aug. 23, 2014 | Welterweight | Anying Wang | Colby Covington | Colby Covington |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 24, 2021 | UFC Welterweight Title | Kamaru Usman | Jorge Masvidal | Kamaru Usman | |
| July 11, 2020 | UFC Welterweight Title | Kamaru Usman | Jorge Masvidal | Kamaru Usman | |
| Nov. 2, 2019 | Welterweight | Jorge Masvidal | Nate Diaz | Jorge Masvidal | |
| July 6, 2019 | Welterweight | Jorge Masvidal | Ben Askren | Jorge Masvidal | |
| March 16, 2019 | Welterweight | Darren Till | Jorge Masvidal | Jorge Masvidal | |
| Nov. 4, 2017 | Welterweight | Stephen Thompson | Jorge Masvidal | Stephen Thompson | |
| May 13, 2017 | Welterweight | Demian Maia | Jorge Masvidal | Demian Maia | |
| Jan. 28, 2017 | Welterweight | Donald Cerrone | Jorge Masvidal | Jorge Masvidal | |
| Dec. 3, 2016 | Welterweight | Jake Ellenberger | Jorge Masvidal | Jorge Masvidal | |
| July 30, 2016 | Welterweight | Ross Pearson | Jorge Masvidal | Jorge Masvidal | |
| May 29, 2016 | Welterweight | Jorge Masvidal | Lorenz Larkin | Lorenz Larkin | |
| Nov. 28, 2015 | Welterweight | Benson Henderson | Jorge Masvidal | Benson Henderson | |
| July 12, 2015 | Welterweight | Jorge Masvidal | Cezar Ferreira | Jorge Masvidal | |
| April 4, 2015 | Lightweight | Jorge Masvidal | Al Iaquinta | Al Iaquinta | |
| Sept. 27, 2014 | Lightweight | Jorge Masvidal | James Krause | Jorge Masvidal | |
| July 26, 2014 | Lightweight | Daron Cruickshank | Jorge Masvidal | Jorge Masvidal | |
| April 19, 2014 | Lightweight | Jorge Masvidal | Pat Healy | Jorge Masvidal | |
| Nov. 6, 2013 | Lightweight | Jorge Masvidal | Rustam Khabilov | Rustam Khabilov | |
| July 27, 2013 | Lightweight | Michael Chiesa | Jorge Masvidal | Jorge Masvidal | |
| April 20, 2013 | Lightweight | Tim Means | Jorge Masvidal | Jorge Masvidal |