Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal - UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Colby Covington by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: m
Weight Class: Welterweight
Wikipedia: None

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Colby Covington
29
15
1.1
-357
Jorge Masvidal
+240

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat Colby Covington Jorge Masvidal
Main Stats
Age 34 37
Height 71" 71"
Reach 72" 74"
Win Percentage 84.21% 70.00%
Wins 17 35
Losses 3 16
Wins at Weight Class 10 7
Losses at Weight Class 1 4
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 50.46% 56.82%
Significant Striking Accuracy 38.42% 49.86%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 7.364 5.863
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.136 4.195
Knockdowns per Fight 0.067 0.532
Striking Impact Differential 48.36% 11.65%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 16.64% 14.95%
Striking Output Differential 99.29% 12.75%
Significant Striking Output Differential 59.71% 15.75%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 54.83% 74.51%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 95.02% 99.06%
Striking Defense Percentage 55.96% 57.94%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.134 0.414
Takedowns per Fight 4.096 1.005
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 8.797 1.893
Takedown Defense 38.89% 36.49%
Takedown Accuracy 46.56% 53.13%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.834 2.535
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 9.007 6.226
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.059 1.684
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.672 1.037
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.039 1.337
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.770 0.804
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.631 0.623
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.721 0.852
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.264 0.528
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.452 0.745
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.672 0.982
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.345 0.426
Colby Covington History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Nov. 6, 2021 UFC Welterweight Title Kamaru Usman Colby Covington Kamaru Usman
Sept. 19, 2020 Welterweight Colby Covington Tyron Woodley Colby Covington
Dec. 14, 2019 UFC Welterweight Title Kamaru Usman Colby Covington Kamaru Usman
Aug. 3, 2019 Welterweight Colby Covington Robbie Lawler Colby Covington
June 9, 2018 UFC Interim Welterweight Title Rafael Dos Anjos Colby Covington Colby Covington
Oct. 28, 2017 Welterweight Demian Maia Colby Covington Colby Covington
June 17, 2017 Welterweight Dong Hyun Kim Colby Covington Colby Covington
Dec. 17, 2016 Welterweight Bryan Barberena Colby Covington Colby Covington
Aug. 20, 2016 Welterweight Colby Covington Max Griffin Colby Covington
June 18, 2016 Welterweight Colby Covington Jonathan Meunier Colby Covington
Dec. 12, 2015 Welterweight Warlley Alves Colby Covington Warlley Alves
May 23, 2015 Welterweight Mike Pyle Colby Covington Colby Covington
Nov. 8, 2014 Welterweight Wagner Silva Colby Covington Colby Covington
Aug. 23, 2014 Welterweight Anying Wang Colby Covington Colby Covington
Jorge Masvidal History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
April 24, 2021 UFC Welterweight Title Kamaru Usman Jorge Masvidal Kamaru Usman
July 11, 2020 UFC Welterweight Title Kamaru Usman Jorge Masvidal Kamaru Usman
Nov. 2, 2019 Welterweight Jorge Masvidal Nate Diaz Jorge Masvidal
July 6, 2019 Welterweight Jorge Masvidal Ben Askren Jorge Masvidal
March 16, 2019 Welterweight Darren Till Jorge Masvidal Jorge Masvidal
Nov. 4, 2017 Welterweight Stephen Thompson Jorge Masvidal Stephen Thompson
May 13, 2017 Welterweight Demian Maia Jorge Masvidal Demian Maia
Jan. 28, 2017 Welterweight Donald Cerrone Jorge Masvidal Jorge Masvidal
Dec. 3, 2016 Welterweight Jake Ellenberger Jorge Masvidal Jorge Masvidal
July 30, 2016 Welterweight Ross Pearson Jorge Masvidal Jorge Masvidal
May 29, 2016 Welterweight Jorge Masvidal Lorenz Larkin Lorenz Larkin
Nov. 28, 2015 Welterweight Benson Henderson Jorge Masvidal Benson Henderson
July 12, 2015 Welterweight Jorge Masvidal Cezar Ferreira Jorge Masvidal
April 4, 2015 Lightweight Jorge Masvidal Al Iaquinta Al Iaquinta
Sept. 27, 2014 Lightweight Jorge Masvidal James Krause Jorge Masvidal
July 26, 2014 Lightweight Daron Cruickshank Jorge Masvidal Jorge Masvidal
April 19, 2014 Lightweight Jorge Masvidal Pat Healy Jorge Masvidal
Nov. 6, 2013 Lightweight Jorge Masvidal Rustam Khabilov Rustam Khabilov
July 27, 2013 Lightweight Michael Chiesa Jorge Masvidal Jorge Masvidal
April 20, 2013 Lightweight Tim Means Jorge Masvidal Jorge Masvidal