Brian Kelleher vs. Umar Nurmagomedov - UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Umar Nurmagomedov by Submission

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: m
Weight Class: Featherweight
Wikipedia: None

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Brian Kelleher
+560
Umar Nurmagomedov
27
17
-14.6
-1500

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat Brian Kelleher Umar Nurmagomedov
Main Stats
Age 35 26
Height 66" 68"
Reach 66" 69"
Win Percentage 66.67% 100.00%
Wins 24 14
Losses 13 0
Wins at Weight Class 3 0
Losses at Weight Class 2 0
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 54.78% 66.67%
Significant Striking Accuracy 41.63% 60.98%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 6.619 3.699
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.492 2.890
Knockdowns per Fight 0.374 0.000
Striking Impact Differential -0.08% 24.00%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -10.54% 18.00%
Striking Output Differential -7.54% 17.00%
Significant Striking Output Differential -18.15% 11.00%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 94.72% 71.88%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 163.81% 92.00%
Striking Defense Percentage 55.26% 76.67%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.748 1.734
Takedowns per Fight 1.871 8.671
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 4.365 19.075
Takedown Defense 64.71% 100.00%
Takedown Accuracy 42.86% 45.45%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.312 1.619
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 6.477 2.890
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 3.010 0.231
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.549 0.462
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.106 1.041
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.981 0.347
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.632 0.809
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.807 0.809
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.640 0.231
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.241 0.694
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.341 0.694
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.432 0.000
Brian Kelleher History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Jan. 15, 2022 Featherweight Brian Kelleher Kevin Croom Brian Kelleher
Aug. 21, 2021 Bantamweight Brian Kelleher Domingo Pilarte Brian Kelleher
Feb. 13, 2021 Featherweight Ricky Simon Brian Kelleher Ricky Simon
Sept. 5, 2020 Featherweight Brian Kelleher Ray Rodriguez Brian Kelleher
June 6, 2020 Featherweight Cody Stamann Brian Kelleher Cody Stamann
May 13, 2020 Featherweight Hunter Azure Brian Kelleher Brian Kelleher
Jan. 18, 2020 Bantamweight Brian Kelleher Ode Osbourne Brian Kelleher
Dec. 29, 2018 Bantamweight Brian Kelleher Montel Jackson Montel Jackson
May 12, 2018 Bantamweight John Lineker Brian Kelleher John Lineker
Feb. 24, 2018 Bantamweight Renan Barao Brian Kelleher Brian Kelleher
Oct. 21, 2017 Bantamweight Damian Stasiak Brian Kelleher Brian Kelleher
July 22, 2017 Bantamweight Brian Kelleher Marlon Vera Marlon Vera
June 3, 2017 Bantamweight Iuri Alcantara Brian Kelleher Brian Kelleher
Umar Nurmagomedov History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Jan. 20, 2021 Bantamweight Umar Nurmagomedov Sergey Morozov Umar Nurmagomedov