Andrei Arlovski vs. Jared Vanderaa - UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Andrei Arlovski by Decision - Split

Fight Info:
Location: Houston, Texas, USA
Elevation: m
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Wikipedia: None

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Andrei Arlovski
12
21
8.3
-185
Jared Vanderaa
+120

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat Andrei Arlovski Jared Vanderaa
Main Stats
Age 43 29
Height 75" 76"
Reach 77" 80"
Win Percentage 61.54% 66.67%
Wins 33 12
Losses 20 7
Wins at Weight Class 18 1
Losses at Weight Class 13 2
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 48.51% 55.33%
Significant Striking Accuracy 44.24% 49.83%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.549 5.460
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.743 4.292
Knockdowns per Fight 0.441 0.000
Striking Impact Differential 3.28% -24.00%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 6.19% -11.33%
Striking Output Differential 8.25% -15.67%
Significant Striking Output Differential 11.78% -0.67%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 94.57% 67.38%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 110.22% 78.91%
Striking Defense Percentage 57.20% 39.06%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.221 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 0.397 0.000
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 1.103 0.000
Takedown Defense 25.93% 400.00%
Takedown Accuracy 36.00% 0.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.092 2.219
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 6.262 6.190
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.004 3.912
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.730 1.139
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.024 1.431
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.506 1.110
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.921 0.934
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 1.174 0.993
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.577 0.263
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.468 0.642
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.712 0.818
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.380 0.117
Andrei Arlovski History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Oct. 16, 2021 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Carlos Felipe Andrei Arlovski
April 17, 2021 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Chase Sherman Andrei Arlovski
Feb. 20, 2021 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Tom Aspinall Tom Aspinall
Nov. 7, 2020 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Tanner Boser Andrei Arlovski
May 13, 2020 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Philipe Lins Andrei Arlovski
Nov. 2, 2019 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Jairzinho Rozenstruik Jairzinho Rozenstruik
July 20, 2019 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Ben Rothwell Andrei Arlovski
April 27, 2019 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Augusto Sakai Augusto Sakai
Dec. 29, 2018 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Walt Harris None
Sept. 15, 2018 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Shamil Abdurakhimov Shamil Abdurakhimov
June 9, 2018 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Tai Tuivasa Tai Tuivasa
March 3, 2018 Heavyweight Stefan Struve Andrei Arlovski Andrei Arlovski
Nov. 11, 2017 Heavyweight Junior Albini Andrei Arlovski Andrei Arlovski
June 17, 2017 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Marcin Tybura Marcin Tybura
Jan. 28, 2017 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Francis Ngannou Francis Ngannou
Sept. 3, 2016 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Josh Barnett Josh Barnett
May 8, 2016 Heavyweight Alistair Overeem Andrei Arlovski Alistair Overeem
Jan. 2, 2016 Heavyweight Stipe Miocic Andrei Arlovski Stipe Miocic
Sept. 5, 2015 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Frank Mir Andrei Arlovski
May 23, 2015 Heavyweight Travis Browne Andrei Arlovski Andrei Arlovski
Sept. 13, 2014 Heavyweight Antonio Silva Andrei Arlovski Andrei Arlovski
June 14, 2014 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Brendan Schaub Andrei Arlovski
March 1, 2008 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Jake O'Brien Andrei Arlovski
April 21, 2007 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Fabricio Werdum Andrei Arlovski
Dec. 30, 2006 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Marcio Cruz Andrei Arlovski
July 8, 2006 UFC Heavyweight Title Tim Sylvia Andrei Arlovski Tim Sylvia
April 15, 2006 UFC Heavyweight Title Tim Sylvia Andrei Arlovski Tim Sylvia
Oct. 7, 2005 UFC Heavyweight Title Andrei Arlovski Paul Buentello Andrei Arlovski
June 4, 2005 UFC Interim Heavyweight Title Andrei Arlovski Justin Eilers Andrei Arlovski
Feb. 5, 2005 UFC Interim Heavyweight Title Andrei Arlovski Tim Sylvia Andrei Arlovski
April 2, 2004 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Wesley Correira Andrei Arlovski
Sept. 26, 2003 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Vladimir Matyushenko Andrei Arlovski
Nov. 22, 2002 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Ian Freeman Andrei Arlovski
March 22, 2002 Heavyweight Pedro Rizzo Andrei Arlovski Pedro Rizzo
June 29, 2001 Heavyweight Ricco Rodriguez Andrei Arlovski Ricco Rodriguez
Nov. 17, 2000 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Aaron Brink Andrei Arlovski
Jared Vanderaa History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Oct. 9, 2021 Heavyweight Alexandr Romanov Jared Vanderaa Alexandr Romanov
May 22, 2021 Heavyweight Justin Tafa Jared Vanderaa Jared Vanderaa
Feb. 20, 2021 Heavyweight Serghei Spivac Jared Vanderaa Serghei Spivac