UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman

Analysis: Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Dricus Du Plessis to Win

Score: 19
Odds:
Dricus Du Plessis: -245
Kamaru Usman: +200

Dricus Du Plessis's Breakdown

Du Plessis is the reigning middleweight king who built his run on chaos, pressure, and a skill set that looks broken but works. He is 8-1 in the UFC with the lone blemish coming in his last outing, a lopsided decision loss to Khamzat Chimaev in August 2025. Before that, he ran the table on the division's best.

His signature weapons:

• Hand-fighting and jab neutralization. Against Sean Strickland in the February 2025 rematch, Du Plessis used both open hands to palm and parry Strickland's jab, alternating right-hand checks and left-hand cross-checks. This shut off Strickland's only reliable weapon and left him with no plan B. He then layered in left high kicks by round 3 that snuck around Strickland's center-line guard.
• Stance-switching combinations. The southpaw-to-orthodox sequence, where he engages the lead hand in southpaw then steps into orthodox to whip a hook over the top followed by a right straight, broke Strickland's nose in round 4. He used the same stance-switch chaos to confuse Robert Whittaker in 2023, exploiting Whittaker's long-standing trouble with southpaws before finishing him.
• Relentless pressure and volume. Against Israel Adesanya in 2024, he kept a high guard so Adesanya's jabs bounced off his forehead, then doubled up punches in the later rounds to catch a tiring Izzy and lock in a rear-naked choke in round 4. He throws 5.9 strikes per minute and averages over 4 takedown attempts per fight.

His technical evolution is real. He went from the wild "blitz" brawler who survived Derek Brunson's early control in 2023 to a measured strategist who dismantled Strickland with a tailored gameplan. But that evolution has limits, exposed below.

Dricus Du Plessis's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Catastrophic bottom game against elite wrestling. The Chimaev fight was a full clinic in Du Plessis's grappling flaws. He habitually wraps his arms around the opponent's upper body from bottom side control, locking his hands. Chimaev sat through to scarf hold, inserted a knee inside those locked arms, and rode to the mounted crucifix. Du Plessis spent roughly two full rounds stuck in that position. Warning: Usman is a grinding top-control wrestler who lives for exactly this kind of dominance.
• Head-wrapping on takedown defense. On Chimaev's first two double legs, Du Plessis wrapped the head like a guillotine, and Chimaev simply circled into side control with the head trapped underneath. This also opened von Flue choke danger. Usman's snatch single and cage-driven double leg can replicate this entry.
• Cage-based wrestling breakdown. When pinned against the fence trying to wall walk, Du Plessis kept getting put back on hands and knees and kneed in the body. That is Usman's entire welterweight blueprint, the underhook-overhook pin and fence recycle he used on Woodley, Covington, and Masvidal.
• Early-round defensive gaps. He tends to use round 1 as a feeling-out period. Against a fast starter that can cost him. Note, though, Usman is now 38 and coming off a slow-burn style.

Kamaru Usman's Breakdown

Usman is one of the greatest welterweights ever, a former champ moving up to middleweight for this bout. His record reads 21-4, but the recent picture is grim. He lost three straight before June 2025: two to Leon Edwards and one to Chimaev. He snapped that skid against Joaquin Buckley in June 2025 with a vintage wrestling performance.

His signature weapons:

• Pressure wrestling and cage control. Against Buckley in 2025 he shot a double leg inside the first minute of round 1 and piled up over 12 minutes of control time across four rounds. His clinch system, single underhook with opposite overhook to pin the opponent to the fence, wore down Covington, Woodley, and Masvidal over five-round grinds.
• Chain and recycled takedowns. Usman does not rely on one explosive shot. Against Edwards in the trilogy he attempted 15 takedowns. He disguises entries behind a feinted overhand or a one-two, then changes levels. Against Buckley he went 4-for-7 through four rounds by timing shots off his boxing.
• Ground-and-pound from top. His elbows opened a cut on Buckley's eye in round 1, and he out-landed Buckley 171 to 62. From top position he wrist-rides, transitions between half and butterfly guard, and grinds.

The technical story: Usman abandoned the Wittman-era striker persona and returned to his wrestling roots against Buckley. It worked, but it also revealed how much his athleticism has faded.

Kamaru Usman's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Late-round cardio and takedown fade. Against Buckley he went 4-for-7 on takedowns in rounds 1-4, then 0-for-6 in round 5. Buckley stuffed everything and hurt him with left hooks and uppercuts down the stretch. Against a five-round-tested pace-pusher like Du Plessis, that fade is a live problem.
• Defensive boxing against power. Usman ducked into an uppercut early against Buckley and got stung repeatedly in round 5. He resets with his chin high after combinations, a habit noted across the Covington, Masvidal, and Burns fights. Du Plessis's overhand right and doubled-up power shots feast on that.
• Head-kick and high-strike susceptibility when level-changing. Leon Edwards KO'd him in round 5 of their 2022 rematch with a left high kick after Usman dipped his head to his right during a parry. Du Plessis throws left high kicks off his stance switches, exactly the timing that finished Usman before. Warning: Usman has been KO'd recently, and Du Plessis has finishing power.
• Weight and age. Usman is 38 and moving UP to 185 to face a naturally bigger, physically dominant champion. This is a real size and prime-window mismatch.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is the classic striker-grappler puzzle, but with a twist: the grappler is the smaller, older man moving up in weight, and the striker just got mauled by better wrestling.

Usman's path is obvious. Get Du Plessis to the fence, dig the underhook, and recycle takedowns into top control. The Chimaev fight is the exact blueprint, and Usman built his legend on this style. If he can pin Du Plessis and exploit the arm-wrapping habit, he can steal rounds through control time.

But there are two big problems for Usman. First, size. Chimaev is a monster who bullies middleweights. Usman is a career welterweight giving up real mass to a champion who out-muscled Adesanya and Whittaker. Second, cardio. Du Plessis's whole game is relentless five-round pressure, and Usman just faded badly in round 5 against Buckley. The Brunson fight showed Du Plessis can eat early control and roar back as the wrestler tires, which is precisely what happened to a fresher Brunson.

Du Plessis's path is to survive early wrestling, make Usman carry his weight, and light him up late. His left high kick is the money shot given Usman's documented head-kick vulnerability, the same look Edwards used to end him. His overhand right punishes Usman's chin-high resets. And his volume pressure targets the exact cardio weakness Buckley exposed.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: This is Usman's best window. He starts fast on his shots, and Du Plessis historically uses round 1 to feel things out. Expect Usman to hunt the fence and rack up control time, much like Chimaev and Brunson did early.
• Mid-fight: The pace tax kicks in. Du Plessis begins doubling up punches and mixing high kicks, the same escalation that broke Strickland's nose in round 4 and drowned Adesanya. Usman's shots start getting labored.
• Championship rounds: Advantage Du Plessis, heavily. Usman's round 5 against Buckley was a defensive scramble where he could not land a single takedown and ate power shots. Du Plessis's cardio and finishing instinct in the deep water, the Adesanya choke, the late Brunson stoppage, point to him closing strong.

Analysis and Key Points

• Usman's blueprint exists but requires his prime body. The Chimaev win over Du Plessis proves the grinding style works, but Usman at 38 moving up a weight class is not Chimaev.
• Du Plessis's high kick meets Usman's worst habit. Edwards KO'd Usman with a head kick off a parry. Du Plessis throws that exact left high kick off his stance switches.
• Cardio favors the champion. Buckley stuffed six straight takedowns and hurt Usman in round 5. Du Plessis pushes that pace for 25 minutes.
• Chin-high resets are a target. Usman resets high after combos, a flaw noted from Covington to Masvidal. Du Plessis's overhand right punishes it.
• The wrestling threat is real but shrinking. If Usman gets sustained top control, Du Plessis's arm-wrapping habit could get him stuck, just like Chimaev did.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Du Plessis but with a slim score of 19, so this is not a runaway pick.

• Odds were the biggest driver, pushing the score up by 14. The market has Du Plessis a solid -245 favorite.
• TrueSkill added 4. Du Plessis's rating sits close to Usman's, and his lower sigma reflects a well-established recent resume at the top.
• Recent takedowns attempted per fight added 2, reflecting Du Plessis's own wrestling threat.
• Striking defense percentage subtracted 2, a nod to Usman's edge in defensive metrics and Du Plessis's habit of eating strikes.
• Smaller bumps from recent win percentage, recent striking impact differential, average striking output differential, recent significant striking output differential, recent average striking output differential, and recent significant striking defense percentage each nudged the score up by 1, painting Du Plessis as the fresher, higher-output fighter.

Past Model Performance

The model has a strong read on Du Plessis, going correct on him in six of his last outings including the Strickland rematch, the Adesanya finish, the Brunson underdog call, and even the Chimaev loss. It did miss the first Strickland fight and the Whittaker upset, both cases where it underrated Du Plessis's chaos.

On Usman, the recent record is a caution flag. The model wrongly picked Usman in both Edwards fights, including an 0.80 confidence miss in the KO loss, and wrongly picked Buckley over Usman in 2025. In short, the model has consistently misjudged Usman's recent trajectory in both directions. That history reinforces siding with Du Plessis here rather than trusting an Usman revival.

Conclusion

Usman has the blueprint, the Chimaev tape proves a grinding wrestler can break Du Plessis. But a 38-year-old welterweight moving up to face a bigger, fresher champion with five-round cardio and a head kick tailor-made for Usman's oldest defensive flaw is a bridge too far. Du Plessis survives the early wrestling, drags Usman into deep water, and finishes strong. WolfTicketsAI backs Dricus Du Plessis, and the pick is the right one.

Analysis: Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Christian Leroy Duncan to Win

Score: 25
Odds:
Jared Cannonier: +290
Christian Leroy Duncan: -370

Jared Cannonier's Breakdown

You know exactly who Cannonier is by now. At 41 years old, "The Killa Gorilla" is a compact power striker who has spent a decade banging with the best in three weight classes. His game runs on a few reliable pillars.

Signature techniques:

• Step-up low kicks. These are his rhythm-setters and range managers. He chopped Whittaker's lead leg raw early at UFC 254 and used the same lead-leg step-up low kick to set up the finish against Anderson Silva in 2019. Against Rodrigues in February 2025, he mixed inside low kicks with out-of-range "bullshit jabs" to reset the timing battle.
• Right straight to the body into the left hook off the weave. The Rodrigues finish in Round 4 was textbook: right straight to the body, weave right, left hook along the fence, then follow-up hammers for the KO. This is his cleanest kill sequence and it needs a stationary or retreating target.
• Cage-based wrestling as Plan B. Against Michael Page in August 2025, once he couldn't corner MVP in space, he dragged him to the fence and passed half guard to mount repeatedly. He is a better grappler than people credit, and his top control shut MVP down completely in the later rounds.

Technical evolution: The Rodrigues fight showed real fight IQ. After getting hurt with inside slip counters in Round 1, he adjusted with feints, out-of-range jabs, and level changes to the body to scramble Rodrigues' counter timing. That is a smarter, more patient Cannonier than the knockout-hunter of old.

Jared Cannonier's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Cage-cutting deficiency against movers. The MVP fight exposed this plainly. He spent long stretches chasing a mobile striker who dictated range and even knocked him down in Round 2 by tripping him over the lead leg during a combination. He is slow to close on fighters who keep angling out.
• Susceptibility to precise counters. Imavov stopped him in Round 4 in June 2024 with range management, hand checks, and a clean counter. Rodrigues hurt him twice in Round 1 with inside slips off his telegraphed entries. When Cannonier commits forward, technical counter strikers time him.
• Recent KO loss and downward trend. He has lost three of his last five, and one of those was a violent Round 4 TKO by Imavov. Warning: a fighter recently finished by strikes can get finished again, especially against a live-hands opponent. His recent win percentage sits at just 33 percent, and that matters here.

Christian Leroy Duncan's Breakdown

Duncan is the younger, longer, hotter fighter. He rides a four-fight win streak with two Performance of the Night bonuses in 2025. At 6'2" with a 79-inch reach, he is a karate-influenced chaos striker who has been sharpening the rough edges.

Signature techniques:

• Spinning attacks off a low-kick pattern. He knocked out Eryk Anders in Round 1 in August 2025 by establishing inside low kicks, then breaking the pattern with a spinning back elbow behind the ear. He repeated the theme against Marco Tulio in November 2025, opening with a spinning back elbow that split the nose, then finishing in Round 2 with a spinning backfist into a power jab and right hand.
• Body kick to right straight. Against Pulyaev in March 2025, he dropped his opponent late in Round 1 with a body kick into a right straight, chaining strikes cleanly rather than throwing single shots.
• High-chamber kicks and side kicks for range. He touched up Dolidze in March 2026 with side kicks and jabs behind his length, and used front kicks to the body to open exchanges. His reach and switch-stance movement are the spine of his game.

Technical evolution: He is grinding out uglier wins now. He escaped multiple Dolidze takedowns to bank rounds one and two, and against Tulio he reversed a takedown, hit his own, then took the back with both hooks. His grappling has gone from liability to functional.

Christian Leroy Duncan's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Predictable circular exits under pressure. Rodrigues beat him in July 2024 by pressuring him into his habitual circle to the right with the extended lead hand, then timing the left hook as he exited. Duncan backs straight up with a high chin when forced to retreat.
• Takedown defense against grinders. Dolidze took him down repeatedly and rode his back with a body triangle through the final round. Pulyaev timed his stance switches for takedowns in Round 2. Cannonier's cage wrestling and top control could exploit this if the striking gets dangerous.
• Loses range battles to volume. Armen Petrosyan out-pointed him over three rounds in June 2023 by staying busy and mobile while Duncan's flashy attacks missed. When he can't finish and gets stuck at range against steady output, he can fade on the cards.

Style Matchup Dynamics

The central question is whether Cannonier's cage-cutting problem meets a fighter it can actually catch.

Duncan's edges: His length and side kicks are built to keep Cannonier at the mid-range he struggles to cross, the same space where Imavov and Borralho neutralized him. Duncan's spinning back elbow and backfist thrive against forward-committing pressure fighters, and Cannonier's telegraphed entries (the ones Rodrigues slipped in Round 1) are exactly the kind of pattern Duncan reads and punishes. His recent striking impact differential is enormous compared to Cannonier's slightly positive numbers.

Cannonier's edges: Duncan's circle-right exit is the door Cannonier's left hook off the weave walks through, the same tool that finished Rodrigues along the fence. And if Cannonier can drag this to the cage, Duncan's takedown defense against a real grinder is shaky. The MVP fight proves Cannonier can still control a longer, rangier man on the mat when he commits to it. Borralho showed the blueprint for beating Cannonier with distance and a long guard, and Duncan has the tools to copy it.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Duncan should own the range. Expect side kicks, body kicks, and lead-hand framing to keep Cannonier reaching, much like MVP did before Cannonier adjusted. This is Duncan's most dangerous window for a spinning finish, since Cannonier's Round 1 defensive entries have been his weakest moments (Rodrigues, Imavov).
• Mid-fight: If Cannonier survives the early spinning threats, watch for the MVP-style pivot to cage wrestling. His path to victory is dragging Duncan to the fence and grinding half guard to mount. Duncan's answer is the get-up game he showed against Dolidze and Tulio.
• Late rounds: Cannonier's cardio holds up over five, but this is likely a three-rounder, which favors Duncan's faster, higher-output pace. Duncan doesn't need to survive championship rounds, and his recent output differential says he wins the volume race.

Analysis and Key Points

• Duncan's spinning attacks vs Cannonier's telegraphed entries: The Anders and Tulio finishes came against fighters who committed forward. Cannonier's Round 1 vulnerability to counters (Rodrigues, Imavov) fits that mold.
• Cannonier's left hook off the weave vs Duncan's circle-right exit: This is Cannonier's live path. Rodrigues used the same read to hurt Duncan in July 2024.
• Cage wrestling as the swing factor: Cannonier controlled MVP from top; Dolidze controlled Duncan's back for a full round. If Cannonier can't strike safely, this is his Plan B.
• Age and trend: Cannonier is 41, 33 percent recent win rate, and coming off a decision loss where he got dropped. Duncan is 30, riding four straight with two KOs.
• KO warning: Cannonier was stopped by strikes by Imavov in June 2024. Duncan's spinning power is a real repeat threat.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Duncan but the score of 25 is modest, and the SHAP features explain why:

• Odds was the dominant factor, dropping the score by 17. Duncan is a heavy -370 favorite and the market strongly agrees.
• recent_win_perc pulled the score down by 2, reflecting Cannonier's poor 33 percent recent run relative to Duncan's perfect recent slate.
• trueskill, win_streak_diff, and recent_significant_striking_impact_differential each shaved off 1, all leaning toward Duncan's momentum and form.
• On the other side, recent_striking_impact_differential and striking_defense_percentage each added 1 back, small nods to Cannonier's veteran durability and impact metrics.
• recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage cut 1 more.

The net is a confident lean toward Duncan, driven mostly by odds and recent form rather than a blowout across every stat.

Past Model Performance

Mixed history on both men, so read the confidence honestly.

On Cannonier, the model has been right on his decision fights (MVP, Borralho, Strickland, Adesanya) but wrong when he flips a fight with a finish. It picked Rodrigues over him and ate the Round 4 KO, and it wrongly backed Cannonier against Imavov. Cannonier's finishing streaks are where the model gets burned.

On Duncan, the model correctly called his wins over Dolidze, Anders, and Ribeiro, but underestimated him twice, picking against him before he KO'd Tulio and misreading the Petrosyan loss. The pattern is that Duncan outperforms his projected number when he lands clean.

Both records suggest the same caution: this is a fight that can end suddenly, and the model has historically missed exactly those swing moments.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI takes Christian Leroy Duncan. The length, the spinning arsenal, and the four-fight surge line up perfectly against a 41-year-old Cannonier who struggles to corner movers and was just dropped and finished in recent outings. Cannonier's live path is the left hook off the weave and cage wrestling, but Duncan has the range and get-ups to stay out of trouble. Back Duncan, but respect that both fighters carry finishing power and this one can turn on a single exchange.

Analysis: Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Chase Hooper to Win

Score: 25
Odds:
Chase Hooper: -340
Mitch Ramirez: +270

Chase Hooper's Breakdown

Chase "The Dream" Hooper is one of the most gifted submission grapplers at 155, and he brings a black belt worth of tricks into this fight. The book on Hooper has always been the same: get it to the mat, hunt the finish. His resume backs it up.

Signature weapons you can count on:

• Defensive-to-offensive scrambling into back takes. The Jordan Leavitt fight (Nov 2023) is the cleanest example. When Leavitt shot for the saddle to enter his leg lock game, Hooper executed a perfect defensive turn, took the back, and finished with a rear-naked choke. That is elite grappling IQ, turning a defensive position into a finish.
• Precision submission finishing from top control. Against Clay Guida (Dec 2024) he skipped the wrestling war and used overhooks and leverage to create angles, then locked up a textbook armbar with proper leg configuration. He does not just reach submissions, he finishes them.
• Front kicks to manage range and set up grappling. In the Jim Miller decision (Apr 2025) he used front kicks to the body to keep Miller honest, control distance, and open takedown entries. This is the evolved Hooper, mixing phases rather than blitzing for a shot.

The technical evolution is real. Early career he was a one-note grappler. Against Viacheslav Borshchev (May 2024) he dropped Borsch with an overhand left before finishing by darce in round two. He is a more complete fighter than the kid who lost to Caceres in 2020.

But here is the honest part. Hooper is 1-2 in his last three, and both losses were brutal first-round KO/TKOs.

Chase Hooper's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Counter-strike exposure on takedown entries. This is the glaring hole. Against Lance Gibson Jr. (March 2026), Hooper shot in and ate a defensive elbow that put him on skates in round one, followed by head kicks and knees for the finish at 2:56. His head position on entries is poor and his level changes are telegraphed.
• The parry-counter over the top. Against Alexander Hernandez (Aug 2025), Hooper threw a long southpaw left straight, Hernandez parried and dropped the right hand over the top for a first-round knockout. His extended lead punch leaves him wide open.
• Straight-back retreating and low striking defense. His striking defense sits at 34.79%, one of the worst numbers in any matchup. When pressured he pulls straight back with his chin up rather than moving off the centerline. Miller found brief success doing exactly this, and Hernandez and Gibson took him out because of it.

Heuristic warning: Hooper has been KO'd in back-to-back fights. Any clean power shot could put him down again. That danger is real and cannot be ignored.

Mitch Ramirez's Breakdown

Mitch Ramirez comes in at 0-2 in the UFC, and the story is not flattering. He is a leg-kick specialist whose game revolves almost entirely around calf kicks.

Signature weapons:

• Calf kicks as the primary offense. Against Thiago Moises (March 2024) he opened well, landing quick snapping calf kicks to the lateral part of Moises' lead leg with minimal telegraph. When it works, it compromises opponent mobility.
• Balanced switch-stance approach. He can throw and defend from both orthodox and southpaw, which gives him some angles on the lead leg.

That is about where the positives end. There is no takedown game (0.00 takedowns per fight, 0% takedown accuracy), no submission threat, and no knockdown power on record.

His technical evolution has actually gone the wrong way. The Moises breakdown noted he narrowed his arsenal instead of expanding it, becoming more one-dimensional. His recent win percentage is 0.00 and his recent striking defense has cratered to 18.25%.

Mitch Ramirez's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Cannot check or defend calf kicks. Against Moises (March 2024), the fight turned when Moises started timing Ramirez's entries with his own calf kicks. Ramirez stayed flat-footed, never checked, and a clean calf kick eventually buckled him to the canvas for the finish.
• Single-weapon dependency. When his calf kick game gets neutralized, he has no backup. Moises exposed this completely, and Ramirez had zero answers once his primary weapon was countered.
• No defense against pressure and clinch. Against Mike Davis (July 2025) he got styled on across every phase and was finished by a flying knee along the fence in round two. He offered nothing off the cage.

Heuristic warnings: Ramirez has been finished by KO/TKO in both UFC fights, including his most recent. He has also lost more than 50% of his last five, a clear downward trend. And with only two UFC fights on record, the sample is thin, which adds some uncertainty to any read on him.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a grappler versus a one-dimensional kicker who cannot stop a takedown he has never had to worry about, because opponents keep beating him standing.

What Hooper can exploit: Ramirez has zero grappling on record and no submission defense to speak of. Hooper's overhook takedown entries, the same ones that put Guida on his back, should land here. Once it hits the mat, Ramirez is in serious trouble against a black belt who finishes what he starts. The Leavitt and Guida finishes are the blueprint.

What Ramirez can exploit: The obvious danger is Hooper's chin and his telegraphed entries. Ramirez throws calf kicks, not head-hunting counters, so his path to hurting Hooper is narrow. But if Hooper shoots sloppy the way he did against Gibson, and Ramirez happens to time something, the KO history says lightning could strike. That is a low-probability path, but it exists given Hooper's two straight knockouts.

The closest comparison is the Borshchev fight, where Hooper faced a striker with poor grappling and simply took over once it hit the mat.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Ramirez may try to establish calf kicks early, the way he did against Moises. This is Hooper's most dangerous window, because his last two fights ended in round one. If Hooper stays disciplined and closes distance behind front kicks instead of diving in headfirst, he gets to the clinch and the mat.
• Mid-fight: Once Hooper drags this to the ground, expect the same slow strangle of position we saw against Guida and Leavitt. Ramirez has no scramble game to bail him out.
• Late rounds: Ramirez's recent striking output collapses in later minutes and his defense drops off a cliff. If this fight is still standing late, Hooper's volume and grappling should have long since worn him down.

Analysis and Key Points

• Hooper's grappling versus a man with no takedown defense reps. Ramirez has 0.00 takedowns and no submission game. This is the mismatch that drives the pick.
• Hooper's chin is the wildcard. Back-to-back first-round KOs against Hernandez and Gibson mean any clean shot is dangerous. Ramirez is not a natural head-hunter, which lowers that risk.
• Ramirez is one-dimensional and trending down. 0-2 in the UFC, both losses by KO/TKO, recent win rate of 0.00, and a narrowing arsenal per the Moises breakdown.
• Blueprint fights: Borshchev, Guida, and Leavitt all show what Hooper does to grapplers-in-name-only and pure strikers with no mat defense.

Understanding the Prediction

The model favors Hooper but the low confidence score of 25 tells the story. Here is what moved the needle:

• Odds were the biggest driver, increasing the score by 18. The market has Hooper as a heavy -340 favorite.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight added 3, reflecting Hooper's relentless takedown volume against a man with no grappling.
• significant_striking_impact_differential, trueskill, recent_significant_striking_impact_differential, recent_win_perc, striking_impact_differential, significant_striking_output_differential, reach, striking_defense_percentage, and recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage each nudged the score up by 1.
• average_striking_output_differential pulled the score down by 1, the lone meaningful negative.

The takeaway: the odds and takedown volume carry this pick, while Hooper's own defensive numbers keep the confidence modest.

Past Model Performance

The model's history on Hooper is a mixed bag and worth respecting. It correctly called his wins over Miller, Guida, Leavitt, and Fiore. But it also confidently picked him at 0.74 against both Gibson and Steve Garcia, and 0.63 against Hernandez, and all three ended in knockout losses. When Hooper gets clipped, the model has been burned. On Ramirez, the model is 0-1, having wrongly picked him to beat Mike Davis at 0.74. So the model has been wrong on both men recently, which is exactly why this low score of 25 deserves caution.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI picks Chase Hooper, and the logic holds. Ramirez is a one-dimensional calf kicker with no takedown defense, no submission game, and two straight knockout losses of his own. Hooper only has to do what he does best, close the distance and get it to the mat, and this becomes another Guida or Leavitt style finish. The one live danger is Hooper's chin, freshly cracked twice in a row, but Ramirez is not the sharp counter-puncher who exploits that. Take Hooper to grapple his way to a finish, but understand the low confidence score is warning you about the KO risk that follows Hooper into every fight now.

Analysis: Tabatha Ricci vs Fatima Kline

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Fatima Kline to Win

Score: 27
Odds:
Tabatha Ricci: +375
Fatima Kline: -500

Tabatha Ricci's Breakdown

Ricci, "Baby Shark," is a judo black belt who built her UFC run on pressure grappling and clinch volume. When she is on, she smothers people. Look at the Angela Hill fight in August 2024, where she pinned Hill against the fence again and again, scoring takedowns in Round 2 and drowning her in volume. Against Gillian Robertson in 2023 she chained clinch work into takedowns and finished with an armbar in Round 2. Against Jessica Penne she used cage pressure and body work to grind out a submission. That is the blueprint version of Ricci.

Her signature tools:

• Clinch pinning into cage takedowns. Against Hill and Tecia Pennington she fought for underhooks and head position, wearing opponents down against the fence. This is her bread and butter.
• High-volume Muay Thai in bursts. In Round 3 against Jandiroba she finally opened up with leg kicks, a partial head kick, and combinations, showing what she can do when she commits.
• Fight-ending elbows. The Amanda Ribas win came off an elbow to the orbital that ended Ribas' will to fight, even in a night where she "didn't look great."

The problem is recent form. Ricci has lost 2 of her last 3, dropping decisions to Yan Xiaonan (a clean 30-27 sweep) and Jandiroba. Her recent win percentage sits at 33 percent, and the tape shows a fighter who hesitates early and falls behind.

Tabatha Ricci's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Slow, passive starts. Against Jandiroba she gave away Rounds 1 and 2 by circling on the outside and refusing to engage, only waking up in Round 3 when it was too late. Against Yan she never got going at all. If she waits again, Kline banks rounds early.
• Kicks that invite level changes and counters. Against Jandiroba, her leg kicks got her countered with a left hand that dropped her briefly in Round 2. Kline is a sharp counter striker who will punish that same timing.
• Struggles against size and pressure. Yan controlled center and used her jab and side kicks to keep the shorter Ricci out. Kline has a 6-inch reach edge here (67 vs 61) and fights the same way at range.

Fatima Kline's Breakdown

"The Archangel" Kline is 24, riding a three-fight UFC win streak with a recent win percentage of 100 percent and two finishes in that run. She is one of the more well-rounded prospects at 115 and she has grown fast.

Her signature tools:

• Jab-led striking behind a reach advantage. Against Melissa Martinez in July 2025 she poked and prodded with the jab, chained it into short combos and right hooks, and wobbled Martinez early. She dug body kicks and low kicks to keep opponents guessing.
• Kick-to-punch chaining and finishing. She dropped Martinez in Round 3 with a right hand into a left head kick, a clean Performance of the Night finish. She hunts the head off her kick entries.
• Creative bottom grappling. Against Viktoriia Dudakova she hit a tornado sweep off her back, worked active feet on the hips, landed elbows from bottom, then swept into an armbar for the finish. She turns defensive positions into offense.

Her defense has also tightened. Recent takedown defense sits above 100 percent (she stuffed multiple Martinez attempts) and her recent significant strike defense is up around 63 percent.

Fatima Kline's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Reckless pressure into counters. Against Martinez in Round 2 she "bowled her way in" and ate a left hook and power shots. Ricci's best win, the Ribas elbow, came from an opponent walking onto something in the pocket.
• Can be taken down early. Dudakova put her on her back multiple times before Kline reversed. If Ricci can time a reactive shot off a Kline combination, she could steal control time.
• Predictable attack entries. Martinez timed a counter uppercut on Kline's Round 3 open. Ricci's clinch entries could exploit that if she commits early.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a range-and-pressure puzzle that favors Kline on paper. Kline's jab and 67-inch reach mirror what Yan Xiaonan used to shut Ricci down in Macau. Ricci is the shorter fighter again, and her recent tape shows she does not solve long, rangy strikers who control center. Kline also fights behind footwork, so Ricci's usual answer, walking opponents to the fence to clinch, gets harder against someone who circles and resets like Kline did against Martinez.

Ricci's path is clear but narrow. She has to make this the Angela Hill fight, not the Jandiroba fight. That means immediate clinch entries, underhook battles, and cage pins from the opening bell rather than the third round. Kline can be grappled early, as Dudakova and Jasudavicius both showed, so a Ricci who commits to takedowns and control time has a real lane. But Ricci's recent takedown defense (31 percent) and passivity are the exact traits that get exploited by a busy striker.

The Martinez fight is the closest template. Kline peppered from range, weathered a rough Round 2, then finished with a head kick once the volume piled up. Ricci must not let this become that fight.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Kline should own the opening exchanges with the jab and body work, same as she flustered Martinez in Round 1. Ricci's history says she starts slow, which is the worst possible trait against a fast starter.
• Mid-fight: If Ricci is behind, expect her to finally open up like she did against Jandiroba in Round 3. That is also when Kline landed her Martinez head kick, so Ricci trading in the pocket is dangerous.
• Late rounds: Ricci has solid cardio and can push volume, but Kline showed she can weather adversity and finish late. The head kick that put Martinez out came in the final frame.

Analysis and Key Points

• Reach and range control: Kline's 67-inch reach echoes the Yan Xiaonan blueprint that swept Ricci 30-27.
• Ricci's slow starts: She gave away two rounds to Jandiroba before waking up. Kline banks early rounds fast.
• Counter danger: Ricci's kicks got her countered and dropped by Jandiroba. Kline is a cleaner counter striker.
• Ricci's only lane: Early, relentless clinch and cage takedowns like she did to Angela Hill. Kline can be grounded (Dudakova, Jasudavicius).
• KO warning: Kline just head-kicked Martinez cold. Ricci has never been finished at strawweight, but Kline's finishing rate is real.
• Trend warning: Ricci has lost 2 of her last 3 with a recent win percentage of 33 percent.

Understanding the Prediction

The model lands on Kline but only at a score of 27, meaning it is far from a lock despite her heavy favorite odds.

• Odds decreased the score by 15, the single biggest factor pulling toward Ricci as the live dog.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight increased the score by 4, reflecting Ricci's grappling volume as a real threat.
• significant_striking_impact_differential and reach each decreased the score by 3, and recent_significant_striking_impact_differential by 2.
• recent_win_perc decreased the score by 2, capturing Ricci's poor 33 percent recent run.
• Smaller moves from trueskill, striking_impact_differential, and recent_significant_striking_output_differential each shaved 1, while recent_average_striking_output_differential and striking_defense_percentage each added 1.

The takeaway: the odds and Kline's striking edge push the pick her way, but Ricci's takedown volume and career-long grappling keep this from being lopsided.

Past Model Performance

The model has a perfect 3 for 3 record on Kline, correctly calling her wins over Dudakova, Martinez, and Hill, all as a favorite. That is a strong vote of confidence in reading her.

On Ricci the model is more mixed, going roughly 5 for 8, including a notable miss when it picked Amanda Ribas and Ricci won by KO. It also wrongly favored Angela Hill against her. So while the model reads Kline cleanly, it has occasionally underrated Ricci's finishing ability, which is worth respecting given the +375 price.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI backs Fatima Kline. She is younger, longer, on a hot streak, and her jab-to-kick striking mirrors the exact style that has beaten Ricci twice recently. Ricci's only real path is early, relentless grappling like her Angela Hill night, but her slow starts and sinking recent form point the other way. The low score of 27 is a reminder that the +375 dog has puncher's grappling equity, but the pick is Kline.

Analysis: Tommy McMillen vs Alberto Montes

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Tommy McMillen to Win

Score: 16
Odds:
Tommy McMillen: -150
Alberto Montes: +125

Tommy McMillen's Breakdown

McMillen is a 2-time Montana State wrestling champ who has decided the cage is a place to hurt people with his hands. His UFC debut against Manolo Zecchini told you everything. He had the wrestling and submission edge on paper, but he chose to stand and brawl to make a statement, then finished with a brutal body knee against the fence at 3:57 of Round 1 before piling on ground and pound. His own words afterward: "I could have subbed that kid out any time I wanted to."

Signature techniques worth watching:

• Cage knees in the clinch. The Zecchini finish came off a body knee that dropped him and opened a cut. McMillen mixes knees to head and body once he backs a man to the fence, and the numbers back it up with 2.27 clinch strikes landed per minute.
• Pressure and swarming. He started slow against Zecchini but took over as the round wore on, walking him down and unloading. When he smells blood, he does not let off. His nickname "Gun" and "don't stop" mentality are real.
• Heavy hands at range with counter ability. By his own account he moved backward "cracking him with big shots" as Zecchini charged, then switched to offense. His head strike volume is huge at nearly 13 landed per minute.

Technical evolution: his Contender Series bout against David Mgoyan is the one time he was pushed to a decision. Everything else has been an early finish, and eight of his nine pre-UFC wins came in Round 1. The debut showed he can adapt mid-fight, switching from counter-puncher to pressure fighter once he read Zecchini's forward rushes.

His length matters here. At six feet with a 74-inch reach, he is long for featherweight and towers over Montes.

Tommy McMillen's Technical Vulnerabilities

• He gets sloppy in firefights. The Zecchini bout was described as an "often-sloppy" brawl, and Zecchini landed the more impactful shots early before the low blow reset things. Against a disciplined boxer like Montes, trading recklessly is dangerous.
• High strike absorption. Pre-fight numbers had him eating 5.67 significant strikes per minute. A sharp counter right hand, which is exactly Montes's bread and butter, can find that open lane if McMillen advances carelessly.
• Unknown cardio and grappling exposure. Both men gassed early in the Zecchini fight despite it lasting under four minutes. McMillen has never shown his UFC game past Round 1 against real competition, and he has never had to defend a high-level submission attempt on this stage. That is a live question against Montes.

Alberto Montes's Breakdown

Montes comes in at 12-1 and most recently choked out Ricky Turcios on 2026-03-07 via a technically precise Anaconda. His striking is modeled on Ilia Topuria, and it shows.

Signature techniques:

• Topuria-style jab behind the shoulder. He jabs and immediately gets down behind his lead shoulder, so he stays in counter range without jumping out. He absorbs return fire on the shoulder or crown, then chins you when your punch bounces off.
• Scientific right hand setup. His whole striking goal is landing the right hand. He jabs until you shell up, then throws the right for free. Simple, repeatable, and effective. Striking accuracy sits at 60 percent.
• Anaconda choke with the armpit lock. Against Turcios he punched the locking arm through so his elbow ended up in the armpit, killing Turcios's ability to create space. He averages 2.65 submissions per fight. That is a real finishing threat if this hits the mat.

Technical evolution: Montes has blended sound boxing fundamentals with a specialized submission game. The Anaconda has become a signature weapon with refined grip mechanics that boost his finishing rate.

Alberto Montes's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Narrow offensive menu. The Turcios breakdown flagged his reliance on jab-right hand with little left hook. A rangy opponent who solves that timing can make him predictable. McMillen's length and volume could crowd that rhythm.
• Modest output and reach deficit. His average striking output differential is negative 9, and his significant output differential is negative 2. He does not throw a lot, and at 69 inches he gives up five inches of reach to McMillen. Getting inside on a bigger, harder-hitting man is the whole problem.
• He absorbs at range too. Striking defense percentage of 51 percent is not elite. Against a man landing nearly 19 significant strikes per minute, that volume gap could pile up fast if Montes cannot close distance cleanly.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is length and power versus discipline and submission craft.

• What McMillen exploits: Montes has to walk into range against a longer man who hits like a truck. If Montes shells up behind that shoulder, McMillen's clinch knees are the counter, exactly the tool that ended Zecchini. McMillen's forward swarming also punishes low-output fighters, and Montes's negative output differential says he does not flood the pocket.
• What Montes exploits: Montes's counter right hand is tailor made for a reckless advancer. McMillen ate the better shots early against Zecchini and absorbs 5.67 significant strikes per minute. If McMillen charges sloppy, that right hand lands clean. And the moment McMillen leans on his wrestling or a scramble breaks out, the Anaconda is waiting. The matchup consideration from the Turcios film is blunt: wrestlers who shoot are vulnerable to his head-arm position.
• Historical parallel: Turcios brought erratic pressure and got caught. But Turcios does not carry McMillen's power or reach. The difference here is McMillen can hurt Montes on the feet in a way Turcios never threatened.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: McMillen's length, volume, and knee threat should dictate the opening. He walked down Zecchini and can do the same to a shorter man. The danger window is if he brawls carelessly into the counter right.
• Mid-fight adjustments: If McMillen respects the counter and works behind his jab and knees, he wilts Montes the way he did Zecchini. If Montes lands the right hand or drags it to the mat, the Anaconda becomes the story. Both men faded early in recent fights, so whoever imposes pace first likely dictates the finish.
• Later rounds: Cardio is a question for both. But McMillen's damage output is so much higher that a war favors the bigger puncher unless Montes finds the neck.

Analysis and Key Points

• McMillen's cage knees are the X factor. The exact weapon that finished Zecchini in Round 1 is a nightmare for a shorter boxer who has to close distance.
• Montes's counter right hand is the danger. McMillen absorbs a lot and got hit early last time out. A clean right could flip this fast.
• The Anaconda is the trap door. If McMillen shoots or scrambles carelessly, Montes has a proven, technically tight finish waiting.
• Reach and power tilt it. Five inches of reach and far higher striking impact favor McMillen in a standing fight.
• Warning, McMillen was in a sloppy firefight last time. He can be tagged clean. Against a sharper boxer, that sloppiness cannot repeat.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on McMillen at a score of 16, and the SHAP features tell you why:

• significant_striking_impact_differential pushed the score up the most, by 6.0. McMillen's power edge is the biggest single driver.
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential added 3.0 and striking_defense_percentage added 3.0, reinforcing the striking gap.
• odds added 2.0, recent_win_perc added 2.0, striking_impact_differential added 2.0, and reach added 2.0, all backing the favorite.
• trueskill and recent_significant_striking_output_differential each nudged it up 1.0.
• Pulling the other way, recent_striking_impact_differential shaved off 1.0 and significant_striking_output_differential shaved off 1.0, a small nod to Montes's efficiency.

The net is a clear lean toward McMillen driven by power and reach.

Past Model Performance

There is no prior prediction history on file for either McMillen or Montes. That adds a layer of uncertainty since the model has no track record to lean on with these two. Worth flagging as well, McMillen has just one UFC fight, so his sample is thin and the read on him against high-level opposition is still limited.

Conclusion

Montes is the more polished boxer and a genuine submission threat, and his counter right hand plus the Anaconda give him real paths to win. But McMillen is bigger, longer, hits far harder, and owns the exact clinch-knee weapon that punishes a shorter man forced to close distance. Keep him disciplined and the power and reach win out. WolfTicketsAI takes Tommy McMillen.

Analysis: Austin Bashi vs Jose Delgado

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jose Delgado to Win

Score: 4
Odds:
Austin Bashi: -105
Jose Delgado: -115

Austin Bashi's Breakdown

Bashi is the grappler in this equation, and the numbers scream it. He throws up over 15 takedown attempts per fight and lands north of 3 of them, with a submission rate of 0.80 per fight. When Bashi gets going, he's a chain-wrestling machine who wants to drag you to the mat and hunt necks. His most recent win, a submission over John Yannis in August 2025, fits the mold of a prospect who finishes lesser opposition when he can dictate where the fight happens.

His signature tools:

• Volume takedown entries. Bashi doesn't shoot once and quit. He piles up attempts (15.28 per fight) and wears opponents down with relentless level changes. That's his path to victory here, get Delgado off his feet and keep him there.
• Submission hunting from top. With 0.80 subs per fight, Bashi looks to advance position into finishes. When he controls, he threatens.
• High-percentage total striking accuracy (0.63) in tight, mostly off short strikes and clinch work rather than volume at range. He's not a distance striker, he's a grinder.

Technical evolution is the concern. The Christian Rodriguez loss in January 2025 exposed the ceiling. Bashi got Rodriguez down but couldn't hold him. Rodriguez "looked extremely calm and just kept moving," working back up without panic. That's the blueprint against Bashi: survive the takedown, stay composed, and get back to your feet.

Austin Bashi's Technical Vulnerabilities

• No top control against composed grapplers. Against Rodriguez, Bashi scored the takedown but couldn't capitalize. His takedown accuracy sits at a low 0.21, meaning most of his shots fail outright, and even his successes don't guarantee control. Delgado has a strong takedown defense ratio (1.60) and stayed calm defending Fili's grappling reversals in March 2026.
• Poor striking defense. His recent significant striking defense percentage is a brutal 0.29, and he absorbs 1.18 head strikes per minute recently. When forced to strike, he eats shots. Against a power puncher like Delgado, that's a fire alarm.
• Loses when he can't finish the grappling equation. The Rodriguez fight showed that if the takedowns don't lead to damage or subs, Bashi has no Plan B. His recent win percentage of 0.33 reflects a rough stretch against real competition.

Jose Delgado's Breakdown

Delgado is the puncher, and a nasty one. He carries a 1.35 knockdowns-per-fight rate (2.29 recently) and lands 7.72 significant strikes per minute at 0.57 accuracy. This is a fighter who hurts people. His first-round KO over Hyder Amil in June 2025 was a clinic: body jab into rear straight into left hook, then converting the missed hook directly into a collar tie and drilling a knee up the middle for the finish at 26 seconds. That's high-level offensive layering.

His signature tools:

• Overhand right off the stance switch. Against Connor Matthews in February 2025, Delgado dropped him midway through round one with a clean overhand right, timing Matthews while he processed the constant stance changes.
• Open stance rear body kick. Against Andre Fili in March 2026, whenever the stances went open (southpaw vs orthodox), Delgado fired his rear leg to the body at full power immediately, punishing switch-hitters caught between stances.
• Clinch knees and elbows. Delgado won round two against Fili by grabbing the head, landing knees to the body and short elbows. His height lets him fire knees from closer range than most, which is exactly how he finished Amil.

Technical evolution: Delgado is diversifying. The Wood fight showed him mixing body kicks, knees under pressure, and even a takedown attempt in round three. He's no longer just a stance-switching bomber, though the finishing instinct question lingers.

Jose Delgado's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Cardio and pace fade. WARNING: Against Nathaniel Wood in October 2025, Delgado exploded early, scored a spinning back fist knockdown in round one, then visibly slowed when Wood applied pressure in round two. He faded into the championship-less three-rounder and lost a decision. He also missed weight for that bout at 147, which may have factored into the gas tank.
• Late-round takedown vulnerability. Wood secured a late takedown in round three and finished in top control, swinging the scorecards. This is the exact area Bashi wants to exploit. If Bashi survives to the later rounds, Delgado's grappling defense under fatigue is a real question.
• Grappling reversals from top. Against Fili, Delgado got swept in round two while actively passing guard. He is not immune on the mat.

Note: WolfTicketsAI predicts Delgado despite his recent loss and controversial split over Fili, so temper expectations, he's dropped a piece of his shine (recent win percentage 0.67, losing 1 of his last 3).

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a classic striker-versus-grappler chess match. Bashi's entire game rests on getting Delgado down and keeping him there. But the tape is not kind to him. The Rodriguez fight showed Bashi can score takedowns yet fail to control composed opponents, and Delgado's 1.60 takedown defense ratio plus his calm work off his back against Fili suggest he won't panic on the mat.

Meanwhile, Delgado's weapons target exactly where Bashi bleeds. Bashi's recent significant striking defense is a dreadful 0.29. Delgado's overhand right and open-stance body kick are precisely the kind of shots that catch grapplers changing levels. Every time Bashi shoots and fails (and at 0.21 accuracy, he fails often), he's exposed to the same counter that dropped Matthews and finished Amil, the punch-to-clinch-to-knee sequence.

The historical parallel is the Rodriguez fight for Bashi and the Wood fight for Delgado. Bashi needs to be Wood: a composed pressure fighter who weathers the early storm and drags Delgado into deep water. The problem is Bashi isn't a pressure-cardio grinder like Wood, he's a takedown-dependent prospect with a leaky striking defense. That's a dangerous combination against a finisher.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: This is Delgado's most dangerous window and also Bashi's best chance to land takedowns while Delgado is fresh. Expect Delgado to hunt the overhand right and body kick early. If Bashi shoots into a counter, this fight ends fast. Delgado finished Amil in 26 seconds and Matthews-style knockdowns come early.
• Mid-fight: If Bashi survives and starts landing takedowns, the Rodriguez blueprint flips, can he hold Delgado down? History says no. Delgado works back up calmly like he did against Fili. But this is also where Delgado's pace dipped against Wood.
• Late round three: If it gets here, the Wood fight is the cautionary tale for Delgado's cardio, but also proof he can still steal rounds with a late takedown. Bashi would need to be dominant on top, which he hasn't shown he can sustain.

Analysis and Key Points

• Delgado's power meets Bashi's worst flaw. Bashi's 0.29 recent significant striking defense against a man landing 7.72 significant strikes per minute with knockdown power is the central story.
• Bashi's takedowns need to translate. He attempts a ton (15.28 per fight) but lands at only 0.21 accuracy, and the Rodriguez fight proved takedowns alone don't win against composed opponents.
• Delgado defends the shot well. 1.60 takedown defense ratio, and he stayed calm grappling with Fili.
• Cardio is Delgado's crack in the armor. He faded badly against Wood, so Bashi's path is deep-water grinding, but that's not really Bashi's game.
• Recent form: Bashi lost 1 of his last 2 shown and sits at 0.33 recent win percentage. Delgado is 0.67 recent with a split-decision question mark over Fili.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Delgado with a score of 4, and here's what moved the needle:

• Odds pushed the score up by 4.0, the single biggest driver, reflecting Delgado as the betting favorite at -115.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight added 2.0, a nod to Bashi's grappling volume being factored, but not enough to flip it.
• recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage added 2.0 in Delgado's favor.
• significant_striking_impact_differential pulled the score down by 3.0 and recent_significant_striking_impact_differential by another 2.0, along with recent_win_perc down 2.0, these are the counterweights keeping this from being a blowout prediction.
• Smaller nudges: striking_impact_differential (+1.0), recent_average_striking_output_differential (+1.0), and striking_defense_percentage (+1.0) favored the pick, while trueskill (-1.0) and reach (-1.0) trimmed it. Bashi actually gives up reach here (70 to 74), which is worth noting.

The net result is a confident but not overwhelming lean toward Delgado.

Past Model Performance

Mixed history on Delgado, which is worth flagging. WolfTicketsAI correctly called his split-decision win over Fili (score 0.69). But it missed on the Wood fight, predicting Delgado at 0.60 when he lost the decision. There's also a garbled entry around the Amil bout. So the model has been burned by Delgado's cardio fade before. On Bashi, there's no prediction history, which adds uncertainty since the model has no track record on him.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI takes Jose Delgado, and the logic holds. Bashi's grappling is real but flawed, high volume shots at low accuracy with no proven ability to control composed opponents, exactly the profile Delgado's calm bottom game and 1.60 takedown defense neutralizes. Meanwhile, Bashi's 0.29 recent significant striking defense walks straight into Delgado's overhand right and clinch knees, the same tools that flattened Matthews and Amil. The one live path for Bashi is dragging this into deep water where Delgado faded against Wood, but Bashi isn't the relentless pressure grinder needed to get there. Delgado by finish or clear decision is the play.

Analysis: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Seokhyeon Ko to Win

Score: 1
Odds:
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani: +170
Seokhyeon Ko: -205

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani's Breakdown

Here's the honest truth about Lebosnoyani: the tape is thin. The available fight insight for his split decision win over Phil Rowe on 2026-02-21 came back empty, so what you have to work with is his statistical profile, and that profile paints a specific picture.

He's a grappler first. The numbers back it. He averages 3 takedowns per fight on 9 attempts, and his takedown defense sits at a perfect 1.000 in the data provided. He also logs 2 submissions per fight, which tells you he chains his ground work toward finishes rather than just riding position. That's a real weapon.

His signature tools, based on the stats you have:

• High-volume takedown entries. Nine attempts per fight is a heavy chain-wrestling rate. He doesn't get discouraged after a stuffed shot, he keeps shooting.
• Submission hunting from top. Two subs per fight means he's not content to stall. He advances position and attacks necks and arms.
• Leg kick pressure on the feet. He lands 1.07 leg kicks per minute at 94% of what he throws, so he uses the low kick to manage distance while setting up level changes.

His technical evolution is hard to trace with one documented fight and no insight data. What you can say is that he beat Phil Rowe, the same man Ko dominated, but he did it by split decision. Rowe pushed him to a razor-thin verdict. Ko shut Rowe out.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Leaky striking defense. His striking defense percentage is 0.4957, meaning he eats nearly half of everything thrown at him. He absorbs 2.8 head strikes per minute. Against a fighter who can land the right hand cleanly, that's a red flag.
• Modest takedown accuracy. He converts only 33% of his shots. Against elite defensive grappling, that number could crater. He hides the inefficiency behind volume, but volume alone won't cut it here.
• Thin, unverified record of adversity. With only one documented UFC fight and no fight-insight breakdown, you don't know how he reacts when his primary plan fails. That's a genuine unknown, and unknowns favor the more proven man.

Seokhyeon Ko's Breakdown

Ko is the more established quantity, and he's the pick. "The Korean Tyson" runs a judo-and-sambo-based wrestling game that has turned two straight UFC fights into shutouts.

Against Oban Elliott on 2025-06-21, Ko entered a +380 underdog against a -500 favorite and snapped Elliott's 8-fight win streak. He racked up roughly 10 minutes of control time and swept the cards 30-27 across the board. The defining sequences were pure judo: when Elliott shot a single leg, Ko sprawled and reversed straight into top position, and when Elliott tried to trip him, Ko counter-threw him to the mat with hip throws. He finished the fight in full mount.

Against Phil Rowe on 2025-11-01, Ko went 4-for-4 on takedowns and piled up 13:10 of control across 15 minutes, earning a near-shutout with one 10-8 round scored. He ducked under Rowe's long jab to finish doubles against the cage, neutralizing a 9-inch reach disadvantage by cutting the cage and forcing close-range grappling.

His signature tools:

• Judo throws and reactive takedowns. The hip throws and single-leg reversals against Elliott (Rounds 1 and 2) are his calling card. He doesn't just shoot, he counters your wrestling against you.
• Suffocating top control with leg rides. Against Rowe he sat heavy on leg rides while pinning both wrists, killing stand-ups before they developed. Position over volume, every time.
• Cage cutting to neutralize length. Against Rowe he consistently walked down the taller man, pinning him to the fence to shoot from the clinch where reach meant nothing.

His technical evolution is real. Against Elliott he was wild, missing a spinning elbow badly and throwing looping power shots. By the Rowe fight he'd added a right hand that visibly rocked Rowe in Round 2 and calf-kick entries in Round 3 to bait openings before shooting. He's integrating striking into the wrestling rather than swinging blind.

Seokhyeon Ko's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Striking accuracy and defense at distance. Against Elliott he was "missing wildly" and threw telegraphed power shots. Against Rowe, when Ko stayed at range in Round 2, Rowe landed clean jabs and an uppercut. If he can't close the distance, he can be tagged.
• No finishing killer instinct from top. Despite 13+ minutes of control on Rowe, he couldn't get the stoppage. He plays conservative from dominant position. Not a problem against Lebosnoyani unless the fight becomes a scramble war.
• Weight cut concerns. Reports said Ko briefly lost consciousness during the final cut before the Rowe fight. He still made 170 and his cardio held for 15 minutes, but a rough cut at welterweight is a durability flag worth tracking.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is grappler versus grappler, and the tape says Ko's grappling is the better version.

Lebosnoyani wants to shoot doubles and hunt submissions. The problem is Ko's entire UFC résumé is built on reversing exactly that. Elliott was an 8-fight winner with real wrestling, and every takedown he attempted got turned into a Ko top position via hip throw or sprawl-and-reverse. Lebosnoyani converts only 33% of his shots, and against Ko's judo, stuffed shots don't just fail, they get punished with a counter-throw.

The one path for Lebosnoyani is his striking defense being a two-way street. His leg kicks and volume could keep the fight at range. But that plays into Ko's improved right hand, the same shot that rocked Rowe. And Lebosnoyani eats nearly half the strikes thrown at him, so a distance battle isn't safe either.

The Rowe common opponent tells the story cleanly. Lebosnoyani beat Rowe by split decision, a coin-flip. Ko beat Rowe by near-shutout with a 10-8 round. Same man, two very different levels of dominance.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Expect a wrestling feel-out. If Lebosnoyani shoots first, watch for Ko's reversal, exactly what he did to Elliott in Round 1. Ko establishes cage position early and starts hunting his own entries.
• Mid-fight adjustments: By Round 2, if Lebosnoyani's shots keep getting stuffed and reversed, he'll be forced to strike, where his 0.4957 striking defense becomes a liability against Ko's developing right hand. This mirrors the Round 2 moment where Ko rocked Rowe before dragging him down.
• Late rounds: Ko's cardio held through 15 minutes twice despite a brutal cut. Lebosnoyani has no verified deep-water data. If this reaches Round 3, control time and pressure favor Ko, the way it did down the stretch against both Elliott and Rowe.

Analysis and Key Points

• Ko's judo reversals neutralize Lebosnoyani's primary weapon. Elliott's real wrestling got turned inside out. Lebosnoyani's 33% takedown accuracy won't fare better.
• The Rowe comparison is damning. Split decision for Lebosnoyani versus a near-shutout with a 10-8 for Ko, same opponent.
• Lebosnoyani's leaky defense (0.4957) meets Ko's improved right hand, the exact punch that rocked Rowe in Round 2.
• Warning on Ko's weight cut. The reported loss of consciousness during his last cut is a durability and cardio flag, even though he performed through it.
• Data caution on Lebosnoyani. One documented UFC fight with empty fight-insight data means his adversity response is a genuine unknown. Limited history lowers certainty on the underdog specifically.

Understanding the Prediction

The SHAP data lines up behind Ko:

• Odds decreased the score by 9, the biggest single pull, reflecting Ko's heavy -205 favorite status.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight increased the score by 7, rewarding Ko's relentless grappling volume.
• recent_win_perc added 5, backing his winning form.
• Smaller bumps came from recent_significant_striking_impact_differential (+1), recent_striking_impact_differential (+1), reach (+1), recent_average_striking_output_differential (+1), and striking_defense_percentage (+1).
• Minor drags came from striking_impact_differential (-1) and significant_striking_output_differential (-1), a nod to Lebosnoyani's higher raw striking impact numbers.

The net result is a maxed-out confidence score of 1 for Ko.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has one prior read on Ko: it correctly called his win over Phil Rowe on 2025-11-01 at a 0.64 score, and that fight ended exactly as forecast, a unanimous decision in Round 3. That's a clean hit on the pick.

There is no prediction history on Lebosnoyani, so the model has no track record against him. Combined with his single documented fight and missing insight data, that's the main source of uncertainty here, but it sits on the underdog, not the favorite.

Conclusion

Ko is the sharper grappler, the more proven fighter, and the one who dismantled the common opponent both men share. Lebosnoyani's takedowns run straight into the exact judo reversals that broke Oban Elliott, and if he's forced to strike, his leaky defense meets a right hand that already rocked Phil Rowe. WolfTicketsAI locks in Seokhyeon Ko with a full-confidence score of 1. Take the Korean Tyson.

Analysis: Alden Coria vs Stewart Nicoll

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Alden Coria to Win

Score: 30
Odds:
Alden Coria: -1100
Stewart Nicoll: +700

Alden Coria's Breakdown

Coria is the type of flyweight prospect who makes the division nervous. He's a southpaw with slick striking built around shift entries, and he pairs that with real wrestling on both ends. His signature is the old Dustin Poirier shift, and it showed up plainly against Luis Gurule in February 2026. He'd stand southpaw, fire the left hand, shift his stance mid-combination, then land the right uppercut coming out of it. That sequence kept scrambling Gurule's read on range and let Coria bank a clean unanimous decision.

His signature weapons:

• Shifting left-to-right uppercut: The Poirier-style shift against Gurule kept an orthodox opponent guessing on distance and got him countered coming in.
• Volume head striking: He lands 3.34 head strikes per minute at 53% overall accuracy, and against Costa in September 2025 that pressure turned into a KO/TKO finish.
• Two-way wrestling: He hits 1.75 takedowns per fight at 50% accuracy and defends well enough to keep fights where he wants them. He can shoot when the striking stalls or sprawl on chasers.

Recent form is strong. He's won his last two inside the UFC, including a stoppage of Costa, the very man who liver-shotted Nicoll. That shared opponent matters here. Coria's evolution is a tightening of his combinations. He no longer just hunts single shots; he chains the shift into the uppercut and threatens the level change off the same look.

Alden Coria's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Takedown defense sags under volume: His takedown defense sits at just 0.40. A committed, high-volume wrestler can get him down. Nicoll attempts a huge 14.1 takedowns per fight, so this is the one avenue Nicoll can theoretically exploit.
• Recent defensive dip: His recent striking defense dropped to 52.9% from a career 67.9%, and his recent significant defense is 54.4%. When he's in firefights he's eating more than he used to, which leaves openings against a heavy hitter, though Nicoll isn't that.
• Thin high-level tape: The Costa fight breakdown gave little detail, so his ceiling against elite pressure strikers is still partly projected off the Gurule win.

Stewart Nicoll's Breakdown

Nicoll is a Brisbane BJJ black belt with real finishing pedigree on the regional scene, 8-0 with seven finishes before the UFC. Inside the promotion the story has been rough. He's 0-3 and lost all three by different methods. His game is wrestling and grappling first, with striking meant to set up entries.

His signature weapons:

• Volume takedown entries: He shoots constantly, 14.1 attempts per fight. Against Lucas Rocha in October 2025 that was the whole plan, though it stalled badly.
• Scramble grappling and sweeps: Against Jesus Aguilar at UFC 305 he hit a slick kimura sweep, put Aguilar on his back, and took the back with ground and pound in Round 1 before it fell apart.
• Leg kicks as a lead: He landed a clean low kick early on Costa in April 2026 that got Costa's attention.

The problem is conversion and integration. His takedown accuracy is a dismal 11.5% because his shots are telegraphed. Rocha stuffed him and he "looked lost," unable to strike his way into the level change. His recent win percentage is 0.00.

Stewart Nicoll's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Body defense is a gaping hole: Costa systematically attacked the body, Nicoll over-protected his midsection, and in Round 2 at 4:56 a left hook to the liver folded him for the TKO. He was just KO'd, so warn that a body-first attack can end this fight the same way. Coria targets the body only lightly, but the pattern of over-covering opening the head is the real danger.
• Neck exposure in scrambles: Against Aguilar he left his neck out chasing a finish and got guillotined in Round 1. Over-aggression in dominant spots keeps costing him.
• Striking can't set up wrestling: Rocha exposed that his takedowns are predictable without a credible striking threat. He absorbs 3.99 head strikes per minute with a 48% striking defense. Against a slick southpaw shifter, he's likely to eat counters walking in.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Coria's southpaw shift is a nightmare for a fighter who already struggles to strike his way into takedowns. Against Rocha, Nicoll couldn't threaten strikes to disguise his level changes; against a moving southpaw who fires the left hand and shifts angles, his entries get even more readable. Coria's right uppercut, the tail end of the Poirier shift, is exactly the punch that greets a fighter changing levels with his head down, the same posture that got Nicoll guillotined by Aguilar.

Nicoll's one path is the same it always is: chain takedowns and drag Coria into scrambles. Coria's 0.40 takedown defense is genuinely exploitable, and Nicoll's sheer volume of attempts means some will land. But Nicoll converts at 11.5%, and Coria can wrestle back. The Rocha fight is the template: high-volume shots that go nowhere while the striker banks rounds.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Coria establishes range with the shift and volume head striking. Nicoll will try leg kicks and reactive shots, like he did early on Costa, but Coria's counters greet him coming in.
• Mid-fight: If Nicoll can't convert takedowns, expect the Rocha pattern to repeat, directionless pressure while Coria picks him apart. Coria's own body work, if he adds it, targets the exact hole Costa found.
• Late: Nicoll's tape shows him fading and over-committing when behind. That's when the neck gets left out or the body gets cracked. Coria's finishing threat rises as Nicoll gets desperate.

Analysis and Key Points

• Shared opponent tells the story: Coria KO'd Costa; Costa KO'd Nicoll. That's a loud data point in Coria's favor.
• Nicoll's body defense is a proven kill switch, cracked open just months ago for a liver-shot TKO.
• Coria's shift-to-uppercut punishes level changers, the exact way Nicoll gets finished.
• Nicoll's only lane is volume wrestling against Coria's soft 0.40 takedown defense, but 11.5% accuracy makes that a long shot.
• Recent form gap is stark: Coria 2-0 recently, Nicoll 0-3 with a 0.00 recent win rate.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds were the biggest driver, adding 19 points and reflecting Coria's heavy -1100 favoritism.
• significant_striking_impact_differential added 6, and striking_impact_differential another 3, capturing Coria's clear edge in damage output while Nicoll sits deeply negative across all impact metrics.
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential and striking_defense_percentage each added 3, favoring Coria's cleaner, harder striking and better defensive numbers.
• trueskill, recent_win_perc, average_striking_output_differential, recent_average_striking_output_differential, and recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage each nudged the score up by 1.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight shaved off 1, the model acknowledging Nicoll's enormous takedown volume as his one live threat against Coria's weak takedown defense.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI is 1-for-1 on Coria, correctly calling his decision over Gurule at a 0.73 score. On Nicoll the record is mixed and cautionary: the model nailed the Costa loss but wrongly backed Nicoll over Rocha at 0.55. That miss is a reminder Nicoll is hard to trust in either direction, but here the model is fading him, which lines up with his 0-3 UFC slide.

Conclusion

The math and the tape point the same way. Coria is the sharper, harder-hitting fighter who happens to punish exactly the mistakes Nicoll keeps making, level changes with an exposed head and a body that won't stay protected. Nicoll's volume wrestling is the only real threat, but his 11.5% accuracy and 0-3 skid say it won't be enough. WolfTicketsAI backs Alden Coria, and the shared Costa result seals it.