UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira

Analysis: Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Vinicius Oliveira to Win

Score: 5
Odds:
Mario Bautista: -185
Vinicius Oliveira: +160

Mario Bautista's Breakdown

Mario Bautista enters this main event coming off his first loss in nearly four years. Umar Nurmagomedov controlled him for almost 11 minutes at UFC 321, taking him down repeatedly and exposing significant takedown defense issues. Before that, Bautista had strung together an impressive eight-fight win streak, including a split decision over Jose Aldo and a dominant unanimous decision against Ricky Simon.

Signature Techniques:

1. Clinch Striking and Dirty Boxing - Bautista's best work happens in close. Against Simon, he timed knees perfectly as Simon bent forward for takedowns, disrupting the wrestler's rhythm entirely. His elbows from the clinch carved up Benito Lopez before the first-round submission. When he gets opponents against the cage, he layers short punches, knees, and shoulder strikes to accumulate damage.

2. Flying Knee Entries - The knockout of Miles Johns came from a perfectly timed flying knee as Johns moved forward. Bautista threw multiple flying knees against Jay Perrin, keeping the debuting fighter guessing. This weapon forces opponents to respect his explosiveness when closing distance.

3. Pressure-Based Combination Punching - Bautista works behind a high-volume 1-2 system, using the jab to establish range before following with the right cross. Against Patchy Mix, he landed clean combinations repeatedly, though he never accelerated to find a finish. His body work, particularly the right straight to the midsection, sets up his head attacks effectively.

Technical Evolution:

Bautista has evolved into a fence-wrestler who optimizes for control time. The Aldo fight showed this clearly. He used striking entries to drive Aldo to the cage, then maintained positional pressure even without completing takedowns. His submission game remains dangerous. The reverse triangle armbar on Lopez and rear-naked choke on Kelleher both came from opportunistic transitions when opponents scrambled.

Mario Bautista's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Takedown Defense Against Elite Wrestlers - The Nurmagomedov fight exposed this completely. Bautista was taken down over 10 times and controlled for nearly 11 of 15 minutes. His defensive technique of turning and kicking out of takedowns gave Umar exactly what he wanted. The back body lock position became a recurring nightmare. Against wrestlers who chain attacks from that position, Bautista struggles to stay on his feet.

2. Predictable Striking Patterns - Against Mix, Bautista threw the same 1-2 combination with minimal variation in rhythm or angle. He rarely feinted or changed timing. Technical counter-strikers can time pull-counters, particularly left hooks, against his right cross. His linear entries leave him squared up and exposed down the centerline.

3. Capitalizing on Hurt Opponents - After dropping Nurmagomedov with a knee in round two, Bautista couldn't prevent the desperate takedown that followed. Against Mix, despite landing clean shots repeatedly with no answers coming back, he never accelerated his offense. This conservative approach lets opponents recover and reset.

Vinicius Oliveira's Breakdown

Vinicius Oliveira rides a four-fight winning streak and has won 10 of his last 11 overall. The Brazilian pressure fighter just outpointed Kyler Phillips and upset Said Nurmagomedov before that. His victory over Ricky Simon showed he can handle high-level wrestlers.

Signature Techniques:

1. Hip-Level Front Kick (Teep) - Oliveira throws this kick right at the waistband, targeting the hip crease rather than the solar plexus. Against Phillips, it folded him in half repeatedly, disrupting forward movement and posture. This operates in a rules gray area but proves devastatingly effective at managing distance.

2. Lean-Back Counter Sequence - When opponents come forward, Oliveira leans back onto his rear leg, slaps with the lead hand to disrupt timing, then follows immediately with the right hand. He used this pattern throughout the Phillips fight. It's predictable but effective against fighters who press forward without setting up their entries.

3. Relentless Forward Pressure - Oliveira fights like he was taught in the jungle. Against Nurmagomedov, he absorbed a back kick to the head early but kept prowling forward without hesitation. By round three against Phillips, the constant pursuit had completely broken his opponent's will to engage.

Technical Evolution:

Oliveira has improved his ability to integrate striking and grappling phases. Against Simon, he defended 9 of 11 takedown attempts while landing significant strikes. His scrambling ability, particularly the leg reap technique he uses to create chaos in grappling exchanges, has become a reliable escape mechanism. The flying knee knockout of Sopaj showed his timing on explosive techniques remains sharp.

Vinicius Oliveira's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Predictable Counter Pattern - The lean-back to lead hand slap to right hand sequence is highly repetitive. Opponents who identify this can time counter-attacks when Oliveira commits to the lean. Combination work ending in high kicks would exploit this. When he leans back, even lighter kicks become damaging because his own momentum carries him into the strike.

2. Takedown Defense Inconsistency - His career takedown defense ratio sits at just 26%, though recent fights show improvement at 40%. Against wrestlers who can chain attacks and maintain pressure, this remains a concern. Simon completed two takedowns despite Oliveira's overall defensive success in that fight.

3. Damage Absorption - Oliveira's durability allows him to walk through shots, but this comes at a cost. Against Nurmagomedov, he took whipping kicks that came dangerously close to his head. His willingness to absorb damage to maintain pressure could backfire against a fighter with genuine finishing power in the pocket.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight presents a fascinating clash of pressure styles. Both fighters want to move forward and impose their will. Bautista's clinch work and fence wrestling meet Oliveira's relentless pursuit and teep-based distance management.

Bautista's Weapons Against Oliveira's Tendencies:

Bautista's flying knee attacks could exploit Oliveira's forward pressure. When Oliveira prowls forward, he presents the same target that Miles Johns did before getting knocked out. Bautista's clinch striking and dirty boxing would test Oliveira's ability to fight in close quarters, an area where Oliveira has shown less polish.

Oliveira's Weapons Against Bautista's Tendencies:

Oliveira's hip-crease teep could disrupt Bautista's linear entries completely. Bautista's predictable 1-2 combinations play directly into Oliveira's lean-back counter sequence. The Brazilian's relentless pressure could force Bautista into extended exchanges where his conservative approach becomes a liability.

Historical Parallels:

Oliveira's victory over Ricky Simon provides a direct comparison point. Simon's wrestling-heavy approach mirrors elements of Bautista's game. Oliveira defended most takedowns and outworked Simon over three rounds. Bautista beat Simon more convincingly, using knees to punish his level changes, but the stylistic template exists.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds:

Oliveira typically starts fast and establishes his pressure immediately. Bautista has shown slower starts, often conceding early rounds before finding his rhythm. Expect Oliveira to push the pace with teeps and forward movement while Bautista looks to time entries for clinch work. The first round likely favors Oliveira's aggression.

Mid-Fight Adjustments:

If Bautista can get the fight to the fence and establish his clinch game, the dynamics shift. His knees and elbows in close could accumulate damage. But Oliveira's scrambling ability and leg reap counters make maintaining cage control difficult. The fighter who can impose their preferred range will control rounds two and three.

Championship Rounds (If Applicable):

This is a five-round main event. Bautista's cardio has held up well historically, maintaining output against Aldo and Simon through three rounds. Oliveira broke Phillips completely by round three through sheer pressure. Both fighters have shown durability in later rounds, but Oliveira's recent momentum and finishing instincts give him an edge if the fight becomes a war of attrition.

Analysis and Key Points

• Bautista's recent loss to Nurmagomedov exposed takedown defense issues that could resurface if Oliveira mixes in grappling with his pressure
• Oliveira has beaten Ricky Simon, the same opponent Bautista defeated, providing a direct comparison point where Oliveira's pressure style proved effective
• Bautista's conservative approach against lesser opposition like Mix raises questions about his ability to finish a durable pressure fighter
• Oliveira's four-fight winning streak includes victories over ranked opponents and demonstrates he's peaking at the right time
• The odds favor Bautista at -185, but Oliveira's recent form and stylistic advantages make him live as an underdog

Understanding the Prediction

The model's prediction score of 5 for Oliveira reflects several key factors:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 6.0, indicating significant value on Oliveira as an underdog
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential decreased the score by 2.0, reflecting Bautista's superior striking efficiency historically
• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 2.0, as Bautista's 67% recent win rate trails Oliveira's perfect recent record
• Win Streak Difference decreased the score by 1.0, acknowledging Bautista's longer overall winning streak before the Nurmagomedov loss
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight increased the score by 1.0, suggesting Oliveira's grappling activity could be a factor
• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 1.0 for Oliveira

The odds provide the largest positive contribution, suggesting the model sees value in Oliveira's underdog price relative to his actual chances.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong track record with Bautista, correctly predicting 6 of 7 fights. The model correctly picked against him versus Nurmagomedov and correctly backed him against Aldo, Blackshear, Cannetti, Lopez, and Kelleher. The only miss was picking Simon to beat Bautista.

For Oliveira, the model has been less accurate. It correctly predicted his win over Phillips but missed on both the Nurmagomedov and Simon fights, picking against Oliveira in both. This suggests the model may have underestimated Oliveira's ability to upset favored opponents.

The pattern here is notable. Oliveira has proven the model wrong twice by beating fighters the model favored. Bautista is now the favored fighter the model is picking against.

Conclusion

Vinicius Oliveira takes this fight. His relentless pressure, effective teep work, and proven ability to outwork high-level competition over three rounds give him the tools to neutralize Bautista's clinch-heavy approach. Bautista's recent exposure against elite grappling and his conservative finishing instincts create openings that Oliveira's constant pursuit will exploit. The Brazilian's momentum, combined with the value at +160, makes him WolfTicketsAI's pick to upset the favorite and continue his rise through the bantamweight ranks.

Analysis: Amir Albazi vs Kyoji Horiguchi

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Kyoji Horiguchi to Win

Score: 26
Odds:
Amir Albazi: +285
Kyoji Horiguchi: -350

Amir Albazi's Breakdown

Albazi enters this fight in a concerning spot. His last outing against Brandon Moreno at UFC 310 was a rough watch. He appeared compromised physically, likely due to spinal and cardiac surgeries that kept him sidelined. The fight exposed significant regression across all phases of his game.

Signature Techniques:

1. Clinch Takedowns and Back Control: Albazi built his reputation on dragging opponents to the mat and hunting submissions. Against Francisco Figueiredo, he secured a trip takedown, established back control, and finished with a rear-naked choke at 4:34 of round one. His ability to chain clinch work into dominant positions was his bread and butter.

2. Ground-and-Pound from Top Position: Against Alessandro Costa, Albazi dropped him with a right cross in round two, maintained closed guard, and delivered consistent ground strikes. The third round saw him land an uppercut that put Costa away for good.

3. Leg Kicks as Range Finders: Against Zhalgas Zhumagulov, Albazi's leg kicks disrupted his opponent's balance and set up takedown entries. These kicks caused Zhumagulov to switch stances repeatedly.

Technical Evolution Concerns:

The Moreno fight showed none of these weapons working. Albazi stood stationary, absorbed punishment, and couldn't maintain top control after securing takedowns. When he took Moreno down, Moreno used a basic butt-scoot retreat and Albazi lost him before he even reached the fence. That's not supposed to happen against a fighter of Albazi's caliber.

His recent win percentage sits at 67%, having lost 2 of his last 3 fights. The split decision over Kai Kara-France was competitive and debatable. His striking output differentials are negative across the board, suggesting he's been outlanded consistently.

Amir Albazi's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Static Striking Defense: Against Moreno, Albazi stood flat-footed and absorbed strikes without head movement or defensive footwork. Moreno landed loaded left hooks repeatedly, some thrown with Todd Duffee-level wind-up, and Albazi never made adjustments. Horiguchi's explosive karate entries will find a stationary target.

2. Left Hook Recognition Failure: Throughout the Moreno fight, Albazi never identified the left hook as a problem. Moreno threw open-glove slaps and power hooks from the same side all night. Horiguchi's left hook dropped Dustin Pague in his UFC debut and has remained a weapon throughout his career.

3. Inability to Maintain Top Control: Even when Albazi secured takedowns against Moreno, he couldn't follow basic grappling sequences. Moreno escaped before reaching the cage using fundamental movement. Against a scrambler like Horiguchi who escaped Pague's back control and reversed position repeatedly, this is a major red flag.

Kyoji Horiguchi's Breakdown

Horiguchi returned to the UFC after nine years away and delivered a statement performance against Tagir Ulanbekov. At 35, he showed the speed, power, and grappling evolution that made him a dual champion in RIZIN and Bellator.

Signature Techniques:

1. Karate-Style Blitz Attacks: Horiguchi's foundation remains his explosive distance management. Against Ulanbekov, he explained post-fight: "My distance. I kept it far and made it uncomfortable for him to enter." He bursts through space with alarming speed, lands combinations, and exits before opponents can respond. Against Neil Seery, he dropped him within 30 seconds with a left hook using this exact approach.

2. Devastating Leg Kicks: His calf and thigh kicks compromised Ulanbekov's base throughout their fight. In round two, a leg kick took Ulanbekov completely off his feet, allowing Horiguchi to advance to top position. Against Chico Camus, his outside leg kicks were described as "on point" throughout.

3. Head Kick to Submission Chains: Against Ulanbekov, Horiguchi connected with a head kick at 1:42 of round three that dropped his opponent, then immediately transitioned to back control and secured a rear-naked choke. This ability to chain striking into grappling sequences shows his complete evolution at American Top Team.

Technical Evolution:

The Ulanbekov fight demonstrated Horiguchi's improved grappling. He secured 3.5 minutes of control time in round two against a Dagestani wrestler. Against Ali Bagautinov, another Sambo specialist, he "pitched a shutout in a way contrary to his usual in-and-out striking style" by engaging in grappling exchanges and repeatedly taking Bagautinov's back.

His recent win percentage is 100%, and his striking differentials are all positive. He's landing more and absorbing less than his opponents across every metric.

Kyoji Horiguchi's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Early Round Adversity: Against Ulanbekov, Horiguchi conceded a takedown in round one and was dropped by a calf kick late in the first. He's shown he can be taken down early before finding his rhythm. Albazi's best chance comes in the opening minutes if he can establish grappling before Horiguchi times his entries.

2. Susceptibility to Leg Kicks: Ulanbekov's calf kick knocked Horiguchi off his feet in round one. His wide karate stance creates vulnerability to low kicks. However, Albazi's leg kick game hasn't been a featured weapon in recent fights.

3. Size Disadvantage: Horiguchi is the smaller man at 5'5" with a 63-inch reach compared to Albazi's 68-inch reach. This 5-inch reach disadvantage means he must close distance to land, which creates takedown opportunities for Albazi.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Horiguchi's Techniques vs Albazi's Defensive Gaps:

Horiguchi's explosive karate entries match up perfectly against Albazi's demonstrated static striking defense. The left hooks and straight punches that Moreno landed repeatedly are the same weapons Horiguchi has used throughout his career. When Horiguchi dropped Seery with a left hook in 30 seconds, Seery was moving and defending. Albazi stood still against Moreno.

Horiguchi's leg kicks could compromise Albazi's already questionable movement. Against Zhumagulov, Albazi used leg kicks effectively, but against Moreno, his mobility was severely limited. Horiguchi's calf kicks took down Ulanbekov, a fresher, more mobile opponent.

Albazi's Techniques vs Horiguchi's Tendencies:

Albazi's best path to victory runs through early grappling. Horiguchi has shown vulnerability to first-round takedowns throughout his career. Against Demetrious Johnson, he was controlled extensively once taken down. However, Albazi's recent inability to maintain top control raises serious questions about whether he can capitalize even if he gets Horiguchi down.

Albazi's clinch work and trip takedowns were effective against Figueiredo and Zhumagulov. If he can close distance without eating Horiguchi's counters, he has the technique to initiate grappling. The problem is getting there against someone with Horiguchi's timing.

Historical Comparison:

Horiguchi's title fight against Demetrious Johnson provides a template for how elite grapplers can neutralize his striking. Johnson converted 14 of 22 takedowns and accumulated over 13 minutes of control time. But Johnson is an all-time great, and Albazi's recent performances suggest he's nowhere near that level currently.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds:

Horiguchi typically starts cautiously, finding his range before opening up. Against Gaudinot, he was tentative in round one before dominating rounds two and three. Against Ulanbekov, he lost round one. This creates a window for Albazi.

If Albazi can pressure early and secure takedowns before Horiguchi finds his timing, he has a chance to accumulate control time. But his recent grappling struggles suggest Horiguchi will escape and return to the feet.

Mid-Fight Adjustments:

Once Horiguchi finds his rhythm, he becomes increasingly dangerous. Against Camus, he "turned up the volume and started cracking off three and four combinations in a row" after a competitive first round. His leg kicks accumulate damage, compromising opponent mobility.

Albazi's cardio concerns from the Moreno fight loom large here. He faded as that fight progressed, and Horiguchi's pace and pressure could expose similar issues.

Championship Rounds (if applicable):

This is a three-round fight, but Horiguchi's conditioning at 35 looked excellent against Ulanbekov. He finished strong with a leaping left hook to start round three, followed by the head kick and submission. Albazi's recent performances suggest he won't improve as the fight progresses.

Analysis and Key Points

• Albazi's physical concerns are real: The spinal and cardiac surgeries that sidelined him appear to have affected his performance. His movement against Moreno was described as "like he had a fused spine."

• Horiguchi's speed advantage will be significant: Even at 35, Horiguchi's hand speed dropped Ulanbekov and Seery. Albazi's static defense invites these attacks.

• Grappling may not save Albazi: His inability to maintain top control against Moreno suggests Horiguchi's scrambling ability will allow him to return to the feet.

• Leg kicks could be decisive: Horiguchi's calf kicks dropped Ulanbekov. Albazi's compromised mobility makes him vulnerable to the same attacks.

• Horiguchi's recent form is elite: A submission finish over a previously unfinished Dagestani wrestler at 35 years old shows he's operating at a high level.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence score of 26 reflects several factors:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 16.0. Horiguchi is a heavy favorite at -350, and the model adjusts for implied probability from the betting market.

• Reach increased the prediction score by 2.0. Interestingly, despite Albazi having the reach advantage (68" vs 63"), this feature favored Horiguchi, possibly reflecting how Horiguchi has historically overcome reach disadvantages.

• Striking Defense Percentage increased the prediction score by 1.0. Horiguchi's 62.8% significant striking defense outperforms Albazi's 61.5%.

• Significant Striking Impact Differential decreased the score by 2.0. Albazi's negative differential (-14.33) compared to Horiguchi's positive differential (+19.22) actually worked against the prediction, suggesting the model weighs other factors more heavily.

• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 2.0. Albazi's 67% recent win rate versus Horiguchi's 100% creates separation.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with Albazi:

• Correct: Predicted Brandon Moreno to beat Albazi with a score of 0.55. Moreno won by unanimous decision.
• Incorrect: Predicted Kai Kara-France to beat Albazi with a score of 0.56. Albazi won by split decision.
• Correct: Predicted Albazi to beat Francisco Figueiredo with a score of 0.75. Albazi won by submission.

The model has never predicted a Horiguchi fight, as this is his first UFC bout since 2016. This creates some uncertainty, though his dominant return against Ulanbekov suggests the model's current assessment is reasonable.

Risk Factor: The model was wrong about Albazi once, picking against him when he won a close split decision. However, that was a different Albazi, one who hadn't undergone spinal and cardiac surgeries.

Conclusion

Horiguchi's explosive karate striking, improved grappling, and recent dominant performance position him well against an Albazi who appears diminished from his peak. The speed differential, Albazi's static defense, and his inability to maintain top control all favor the Japanese veteran. While Albazi's grappling could theoretically neutralize Horiguchi's striking, his recent performances suggest he can't execute that game plan effectively.

WolfTicketsAI picks Kyoji Horiguchi to win, and the technical matchup supports that conclusion. Expect Horiguchi to find his range, land damaging combinations, and either finish Albazi or cruise to a clear decision.

Analysis: Jailton Almeida vs Rizvan Kuniev

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jailton Almeida to Win

Score: 9
Odds:
Jailton Almeida: -140
Rizvan Kuniev: +120

Jailton Almeida's Breakdown

Jailton Almeida is one of the most dominant grapplers in the heavyweight division. His signature technique is the Lucas Leite-style half guard sweep. When opponents put him on his back, he opens his guard, lets them step into half guard, sits up on the underhook, and sweeps them directly into mount. He pulled this off against both Serghei Spivac and Derrick Lewis. Against Spivac, this sweep led to a first-round TKO finish when Almeida landed heavy ground strikes during the scramble.

His second weapon is the diving double leg takedown, often set up by a front kick to the head. Against Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Almeida threw the front kick, immediately shot the double, and bundled Rozenstruik to the canvas before submitting him in round one. He used this same entry against Shamil Abdurakhimov, though Abdurakhimov managed to land a counter right hand before getting taken down anyway.

Almeida has also shown butterfly guard proficiency. Against Spivac, when Spivac tried to pass his guard, Almeida established a butterfly hook and swept him cleanly. This gives him multiple paths back to top position regardless of how opponents try to control him.

His recent evolution showed against Spivac when he actually engaged with strikes during scrambles. For years, critics questioned whether Almeida could punch. That fight answered the question. He landed heavy shots that led to the stoppage, proving his grappling-heavy approach is tactical choice, not limitation.

Almeida's UFC record stands at 8-2 with six finishes. He has submitted Rozenstruik, Romanov, and Parker Porter. He TKO'd Abdurakhimov and Spivac. His grappling volume is absurd: 6.66 takedowns landed per fight with 62.96% accuracy.

Jailton Almeida's Technical Vulnerabilities

Passive Top Control: The Volkov fight exposed Almeida's biggest flaw. Despite landing 7 of 9 takedowns and controlling for 10:47, he threw only 9 significant strikes and attempted zero submissions. Volkov stayed active from bottom, attempted a triangle and kimura, and won a split decision. Judges prioritized damage over control. If Almeida gets the fight to the ground but refuses to work, he can lose rounds.

Back Exposure During Mount Escapes: Both Derrick Lewis and Spivac used the same escape when mounted. They bridge, grab Almeida's hand, pull it across their body, and roll through until both fighters end up supine. This neutralizes Almeida's ground strikes and forces a hand-fighting exchange. Spivac executed this perfectly in round one before Almeida eventually finished him.

Predictable Takedown Entries: Almeida's front kick to double leg is effective but telegraphed. Abdurakhimov read it and landed a counter right hand. Against more powerful strikers, this predictability could be punished harder.

Rizvan Kuniev's Breakdown

Rizvan Kuniev made his UFC debut against Curtis Blaydes at UFC Baku and lost a razor-thin split decision. But the performance proved he belongs at this level. He stuffed 13 of 15 takedown attempts against one of the best wrestlers in heavyweight history.

Kuniev's best weapon is his jab-straight right combination. In round two against Blaydes, he doubled up the jab and landed clean rights that visibly marked up Blaydes' face. He landed 24 strikes to Blaydes' 16 in that round and looked like the more polished striker at range.

His defensive uppercut timing is excellent. When Blaydes shot for takedowns, Kuniev caught him coming in with well-placed uppercuts that drew blood. He also timed a clean knee to Blaydes' chin early in round three that stunned the veteran.

Kuniev's Wushu Sanda background shows in his striking. He moves well at range and can pick apart opponents who cannot threaten takedowns. His 87% takedown defense against Blaydes was remarkable for a UFC debut.

In the final seconds against Blaydes, Kuniev unleashed a flurry that nearly finished the fight. Had the round been ten seconds longer, the outcome might have been different.

Rizvan Kuniev's Technical Vulnerabilities

Clinch Control Weakness: Blaydes dominated round one by pressing Kuniev against the cage with a body lock. Kuniev struggled to break the grip and escape. Each time he worked free, Blaydes reattached. This cost him the round decisively and likely the fight.

Limited Offensive Grappling: Despite his Dagestani wrestling background, Kuniev attempted zero takedowns against Blaydes. He briefly tried a guillotine in round three but abandoned it quickly. He has no proven offensive grappling at UFC level.

Volume Issues in Close Rounds: Kuniev landed cleaner shots in round three, but Blaydes outlanded him 28-13. When rounds are tight, Kuniev's lower volume can cost him on the scorecards.

Warning: Kuniev has only one UFC fight. The model has limited data to work with, which adds uncertainty to any prediction involving him.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup heavily favors Almeida's grappling. Kuniev showed excellent takedown defense against Blaydes, but Blaydes tore his MCL in round one and abandoned his wrestling gameplan. We never saw Kuniev defend against a healthy, committed wrestler for three rounds.

Almeida's diving double leg and chain wrestling present different problems than Blaydes' approach. Almeida will shoot immediately, often within the first ten seconds. Against Volkov, he secured a takedown in the opening moments. Against Rozenstruik, he was on top within seconds.

Kuniev's defensive uppercuts could catch Almeida on entries. Abdurakhimov landed a counter right when Almeida shot. But Almeida's takedown volume is relentless. He attempts 10.58 takedowns per fight. Even if Kuniev stuffs the first few, Almeida will keep shooting.

Once the fight hits the mat, Kuniev has shown no ability to escape or threaten from bottom. Almeida's half guard sweeps and butterfly guard work mean that even if Kuniev somehow gets on top, he could end up on his back within seconds.

Kuniev's path to victory is keeping this fight standing and boxing at range. His jab-straight combinations could mark up Almeida. But Almeida's pressure and takedown entries will make it difficult to establish that range.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Almeida will shoot immediately. Expect a takedown attempt within the first 30 seconds. If Kuniev stuffs it, Almeida will chain into another attempt. Kuniev's clinch weakness is concerning here. Even if he defends the initial shot, Almeida could push him to the cage and work for a body lock similar to what Blaydes used.

Mid-Fight: If Almeida secures top position, the question becomes whether he will work for damage or lay and pray. His Volkov performance was passive. His Spivac performance was aggressive. Against a less experienced opponent like Kuniev, Almeida should feel comfortable opening up with ground strikes.

Late Rounds: Almeida's cardio has held up through five rounds against Derrick Lewis. Kuniev went three rounds with Blaydes and remained dangerous late. If this fight goes deep, Almeida's grappling pressure should accumulate damage and fatigue Kuniev.

Analysis and Key Points

• Takedown Volume Mismatch: Almeida attempts 10.58 takedowns per fight. Kuniev defended well against an injured Blaydes, but Almeida's volume and chain wrestling are different challenges entirely.

• Ground Control Dominance: Almeida averages 10:47 of control time. Kuniev has shown no offensive grappling or submission threats from bottom. Once down, he stays down.

• Striking at Range Favors Kuniev: If this stays standing, Kuniev's boxing is cleaner. His jab-straight combinations troubled Blaydes. But Almeida will not let this stay standing.

• Recent Form Concern for Almeida: Almeida lost his last fight to Volkov via split decision. His passive approach cost him. But that fight was against a veteran with excellent defensive grappling. Kuniev is less experienced.

• Limited Data on Kuniev: One UFC fight is not enough to fully assess his ceiling or weaknesses. This adds uncertainty.

Understanding the Prediction

The model gave Almeida a confidence score of 9, which is extremely high. Several features drove this:

• Significant Striking Impact Differential (+5.0): Almeida's ability to land meaningful strikes while absorbing few gives him a substantial edge.

• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight (+4.0): Almeida's 12.17 recent takedown attempts per fight dwarfs Kuniev's zero. The model sees this grappling pressure as decisive.

• Odds (+3.0): The betting market favors Almeida at -140, and the model agrees with that assessment.

• Striking Impact Differential (+2.0) and Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential (+2.0): Almeida lands more damaging shots than he absorbs, even though his striking is not his primary weapon.

• Striking Defense Percentage (-2.0): Almeida's 20.82% striking defense is low, which slightly concerns the model. But his grappling dominance typically prevents extended striking exchanges.

• TrueSkill (-1.0): Almeida's TrueSkill rating is 38.39 compared to Kuniev's 25.0 (with high uncertainty). The model slightly penalized this gap, possibly due to Kuniev's limited sample size.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has an excellent track record with Almeida. The model correctly predicted his wins over Spivac (0.74 score), Romanov (0.68), Lewis (0.80), Rozenstruik (0.21), Abdurakhimov (0.19), and Porter (0.79). It also correctly predicted his loss to Blaydes (0.52 for Blaydes).

The one miss was the Volkov fight. The model predicted Almeida to win with a 0.59 score, but Volkov took the split decision. That loss came from Almeida's passive approach, not from being outgrappled.

The model has never predicted a Kuniev fight before. This is his first UFC appearance in the prediction system, which adds some uncertainty.

Overall, the model's 7-1 record on Almeida fights provides strong confidence. The only miss was a close split decision where Almeida's tactics, not his skills, failed him.

Conclusion

Jailton Almeida should dominate this fight on the ground. Kuniev showed impressive takedown defense against an injured Blaydes, but Almeida's relentless chain wrestling and 10+ takedown attempts per fight present a different challenge. Once Almeida gets on top, Kuniev has shown no path back to his feet or any submission threats from bottom. If Almeida stays active with ground strikes, unlike the Volkov fight, this ends early. WolfTicketsAI has Almeida winning, and the grappling mismatch supports that pick.

Analysis: Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Marc-Andre Barriault

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Michal Oleksiejczuk to Win

Score: 22
Odds:
Michal Oleksiejczuk: -330
Marc-Andre Barriault: +270

Michal Oleksiejczuk's Breakdown

Oleksiejczuk is a southpaw power puncher whose entire game revolves around his devastating left hand. The Polish fighter has built a reputation as a dangerous finisher against lower-tier opposition, racking up first-round knockouts against Gerald Meerschaert, Sedriques Dumas, Cody Brundage, and Sam Alvey.

His signature techniques include:

1. Crosshand Trap ("Sword and Shield"): Against Meerschaert, Oleksiejczuk placed his right hand across his opponent's lead hand to control and trap it, creating openings for his power shots. This technique functions like a shield while setting up attacks.

2. Left Straight to Body: Following the crosshand trap, he attacks the body with his power left straight. Against Dumas, he used a level change feint that caused Dumas to raise his guard high, then exploded with a left hook to the body that visibly hurt him before following with the finishing shot upstairs.

3. Overhand/Clubbing Left Hand: His primary finishing weapon. Against Meerschaert, he "clubbed him over the top with a couple of left hands, knocked him down, knocked him out."

Oleksiejczuk has shown technical evolution in recent fights. Against Dumas, he demonstrated patience in building toward the finishing sequence rather than forcing power shots from the opening bell. His body attacks have become a complement to his head hunting, making his striking more unpredictable.

When his primary gameplan fails, Oleksiejczuk has shown he can wrestle. In the third round against Shara Magomedov, he executed a single-leg takedown against the fence and maintained top position for the remainder of the round. This wrestling success came too late to change the outcome but demonstrated untapped potential in his grappling.

Michal Oleksiejczuk's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Level of Competition Issues: Oleksiejczuk looks exceptional against lower-tier fighters but struggles considerably against better competition. As noted in analysis: "When Mikhail Alexeyuk is having a bad run and they put him in against one of the worst middleweights that the UFC has, suddenly he enters the Matrix. But against everyone else, he's just not very good." His recent wins have come against Meerschaert, Dumas, Brundage, and Alvey, while he's lost to Shara Magomedov, Kevin Holland, and Michel Pereira.

2. Submission Vulnerability: Oleksiejczuk has been submitted repeatedly when he overcommits on the ground. Against Holland, after scoring two knockdowns, he "jumped in, forgetting that there was a really tall, long guy" and got caught in an armbar that broke his arm. Against Pereira, he chased him to the fence and got choked out without Pereira even having hooks in.

3. One-Dimensional Striking: Against Magomedov, his approach was particularly flawed. He was "reaching out with his right hand while simultaneously throwing his left, creating a zombie-like forward movement that made him predictable and vulnerable." This technique severely diminished his striking effectiveness and allowed Magomedov to read his attacks and counter effectively.

Marc-Andre Barriault's Breakdown

Barriault is a pressure-forward striker who relies on volume, durability, and clinch work to grind opponents down. The Canadian has shown he can be dangerous with his right hand and clinch offense, though his recent form is concerning.

His signature techniques include:

1. Underhook Clinch Work: Against Magomedov, Barriault "had the underhook and he'd just throw these short punches and look for trips and knees." He uses underhook control in the clinch to land short offense and look for damage.

2. Power Right Hand: Capable of landing impactful right hands that can stun opponents. Against Magomedov, he "stunned him with a right hand that sort of crumpled his nose."

3. Right Kick to Right Straight Combination: Against Eryk Anders, this combination proved highly effective at breaking Anders' defense, breaking his nose and scoring a knockdown. This "Andy Hook Special" creates a difficult defensive scenario where the kick occupies attention and the straight follows before the guard resets.

Barriault's recent technical evolution has been limited. He's shown improved clinch awareness under Sanford MMA's tutelage but fundamental issues remain. His forward pressure style can be effective when he establishes his rhythm, as seen in his TKO win over Bruno Silva.

When his primary gameplan fails, Barriault tends to become more desperate and chase headshots without diversifying his attack. Against Magomedov, he "was just chasing headshots the whole fight, no kicking the legs to slow him down, no punching the body to slow him down, just swinging for the head."

Marc-Andre Barriault's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Headhunting/Lack of Target Variety: Barriault exclusively targeted the head against Magomedov, failing to use body work or leg kicks to slow down his opponent or create openings. This one-dimensional approach makes his pressure predictable and easier to defend.

2. Susceptible to Counter Strikes: Against Magomedov, "he got clipped with an overhand standing in the fence." Against Joe Pyfer, his forward pressure was exploited when Pyfer walked him to the fence and landed overhand punches that knocked him down. Against Dustin Stoltzfus, similar patterns emerged in his first-round KO loss.

3. Limited Wrestling/Takedown Ability: His lack of takedown threat was specifically exploited in matchmaking against Magomedov "because we wanna see Shara Magomedov do what he do." Fighters who back to the fence feel comfortable against Barriault unless he develops a wrestling threat.

Warning: Barriault has lost 4 of his last 6 fights, including two first-round KO losses to Pyfer and Stoltzfus. This represents a significant downward trend and suggests his chin may be compromised.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup favors Oleksiejczuk's power striking against Barriault's known defensive gaps. Barriault's tendency to move forward with his chin exposed plays directly into Oleksiejczuk's wheelhouse.

Oleksiejczuk's techniques that could exploit Barriault's vulnerabilities: - Barriault's linear forward movement and tendency to back straight up when hurt creates perfect opportunities for Oleksiejczuk's overhand left. When Barriault pressures forward, Oleksiejczuk can time his counter left hand as Barriault extends. - Barriault's susceptibility to counter strikes in exchanges mirrors what Pyfer and Stoltzfus exploited. Oleksiejczuk's left hand power is legitimate and dangerous against a fighter who keeps his chin available. - Barriault's lack of wrestling threat means Oleksiejczuk can sit down on his punches without worrying about reactive takedowns.

Barriault's techniques that could cause problems for Oleksiejczuk: - Barriault's clinch work and underhook control could neutralize Oleksiejczuk's power if he can close distance safely. Against Meerschaert, Oleksiejczuk struggled briefly when trapped in clinch exchanges. - Barriault's durability and volume could test Oleksiejczuk's cardio if the fight extends beyond the first round. Oleksiejczuk's high-intensity style can lead to diminishing returns in later rounds.

Historical parallels: This matchup resembles Oleksiejczuk vs. Meerschaert and Oleksiejczuk vs. Dumas, where Oleksiejczuk faced forward-moving opponents with limited defensive awareness. Both ended in first-round knockouts.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds: Oleksiejczuk's techniques are likely to establish dominance early. His crosshand trap and power left work best when opponents are fresh and willing to engage. Barriault's tendency to pressure forward from the opening bell plays into Oleksiejczuk's counter-striking. Expect Oleksiejczuk to look for the finish in the first five minutes.

Mid-fight adjustments: If Barriault survives the early onslaught, he may find success in the clinch where he can land short punches and knees. Oleksiejczuk has shown he can become predictable when his left hand isn't landing, reverting to the "zombie-like forward movement" that Magomedov exploited.

Championship rounds: Unlikely to reach this phase. If it does, Barriault's volume and pressure could become factors, though his recent cardio has been untested due to early stoppages against him.

Analysis and Key Points

• Oleksiejczuk's left hand power vs. Barriault's chin: Barriault has been knocked out twice in his last six fights. Oleksiejczuk has legitimate one-punch knockout power that has ended fights against similar opposition.

• Barriault's downward trend is concerning: Losses to Pyfer (R1 KO), Stoltzfus (R1 KO), Curtis (split decision), and Magomedov (unanimous decision) in his last six fights suggest he's on the decline.

• Oleksiejczuk's level of competition caveat applies: His recent wins have come against Meerschaert, Dumas, Brundage, and Alvey. Barriault represents a slight step up but remains within Oleksiejczuk's wheelhouse as a forward-moving striker with defensive holes.

• Southpaw vs. Orthodox dynamics favor Oleksiejczuk: His crosshand trap technique works particularly well in this stance matchup, allowing him to control Barriault's lead hand while setting up his power shots.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence is driven primarily by:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 18.0, reflecting the significant betting line favoring Oleksiejczuk.
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 2.0. Oleksiejczuk lands with more damage per strike than Barriault.
• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 2.0. Oleksiejczuk defends strikes at a higher rate (55.6% vs. 46.7%).
• Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 1.0.
• Recent Win Percentage increased the score by 1.0. Oleksiejczuk's 67% recent win rate compares favorably to Barriault's 33%.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight increased the score by 1.0.
• TrueSkill decreased the score by 1.0, reflecting some uncertainty in skill ratings.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong track record with Oleksiejczuk, correctly predicting his wins against Meerschaert (0.53 confidence) and Dumas (0.56 confidence). The model also correctly predicted his losses to Magomedov, Holland, Pereira, and Borralho by picking against him. The only miss was predicting Njokuani to beat Oleksiejczuk, which Oleksiejczuk won by first-round KO.

For Barriault, the model correctly predicted his win over Bruno Silva (0.58) and his loss to Pyfer. However, it incorrectly predicted Barriault to beat Stoltzfus (0.64 confidence) and Curtis (0.38 confidence). The Stoltzfus miss is notable since it was a first-round KO loss, suggesting the model may underestimate Barriault's chin vulnerability.

Conclusion

Oleksiejczuk's power left hand against Barriault's compromised chin and forward-moving style creates a favorable matchup for the Polish fighter. Barriault's recent KO losses to Pyfer and Stoltzfus exposed defensive vulnerabilities that Oleksiejczuk is well-equipped to exploit. While Oleksiejczuk has struggled against higher-level competition, Barriault's current form places him squarely in the category of opposition where Oleksiejczuk thrives. WolfTicketsAI backs Oleksiejczuk to find the finish, likely in the first round with his signature left hand.

Analysis: Jean Matsumoto vs Farid Basharat

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Farid Basharat to Win

Score: 16
Odds:
Jean Matsumoto: +215
Farid Basharat: -255

Jean Matsumoto's Breakdown

Matsumoto enters this fight with a 17-1 record but has shown some cracks in his armor at the UFC level. His recent split decision loss to Rob Font exposed defensive boxing issues that sharper strikers can exploit. Against Miles Johns, he needed to "catch up with volume" after falling behind early, suggesting he can be outworked in the opening rounds before his pace takes over.

Signature Techniques:

1. High-Volume Striking: Matsumoto's bread and butter. Against Brad Katona, he maintained relentless output across three rounds, eventually overwhelming Katona on the scorecards. He throws 5.09 significant strikes per minute, which is solid for the division.

2. Southpaw Left Body Kick: When he switches to southpaw, Matsumoto throws a quick body kick with minimal telegraph. Against Font, this was his most effective offensive weapon when Font reset his position.

3. Reactive Counter Wrestling: His takedown defense sits at 94.4%, and he showed excellent fence work against Font, using underhooks and hip positioning to bounce back to his feet repeatedly.

Technical Evolution:

Matsumoto has developed more purposeful switch-stance work in recent fights. His submission game showed refinement against Font when he patiently secured a guillotine rather than frantically squeezing. However, his striking defense remains a work in progress.

Jean Matsumoto's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Defensive Reactions to Straight Punches: Against Font, Matsumoto consistently ate the first punch of combinations without adequate head movement. Font landed a clean 1-2 that wobbled him by lifting his head with the jab first. His striking defense percentage of 42.4% confirms this issue. Basharat's measured jab work could exploit this same opening.

2. Elevated Chin During Forward Pressure: When advancing, Matsumoto keeps his chin slightly higher than ideal. Font repeatedly countered him with clean punches during forward movement. This creates opportunities for counter-strikers who can time his entries.

3. Predictable Kick Entries: Matsumoto tends to initiate offensive sequences with kicks, creating timing patterns opponents can read. Font eventually parried one of his kicks across, ducked under, and secured a takedown. Basharat's technical awareness could allow similar timing.

Farid Basharat's Breakdown

Basharat remains undefeated at 14-0 and has looked increasingly comfortable at the UFC level. His wins over Chris Gutierrez, Victor Hugo, and Taylor Lapilus all came by unanimous decision, showcasing his ability to control fights without needing knockout power.

Signature Techniques:

1. Precise Jab Work: Against Victor Hugo, Basharat's jab improved progressively throughout the fight, using it to establish range and set up other attacks. His lead hand positioning stays active with posts and frames to control distance.

2. Right Front Kicks to the Body: When Hugo reached with his lead hand, Basharat punished him with front kicks that disrupted forward momentum. This technique served dual purposes: damage and distance control.

3. Arm Triangle from Mount: Against Kleydson Rodrigues, Basharat showed excellent positional control, advancing to mount and threatening arm triangles until securing the submission. His ground control is methodical and suffocating.

Technical Evolution:

Basharat has developed into a volume-based technical striker who prioritizes not getting hit. His significant striking defense percentage of 60.6% is notably higher than Matsumoto's 47.5%. He makes mid-fight adjustments well, as his jab improvement within the Hugo fight demonstrated.

Farid Basharat's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Lack of Finishing Power: Basharat cannot threaten opponents with knockout danger. Against Hugo, he landed clean strikes regularly but never hurt him. This allows opponents to take calculated risks without fear of being seriously hurt. Matsumoto's durability means he can absorb Basharat's output and keep coming.

2. Takedown Defense Concerns: Basharat's takedown defense ratio sits at just 37.5%, which is concerning against a grappler like Matsumoto who attempts 6.5 takedowns per fight. If Matsumoto can get this fight to the mat, Basharat may struggle to return to his feet.

3. Range-Dependent Defense: Basharat's defensive strategy relies heavily on maintaining optimal distance rather than absorbing or rolling with shots. Against fighters with better closing mechanics than Hugo showed, this could become problematic. Matsumoto's volume and forward pressure could test this.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight presents a classic striker versus grappler dynamic with some interesting wrinkles.

Basharat's Techniques Against Matsumoto's Gaps:

Basharat's jab work directly targets Matsumoto's documented weakness against straight punches. Font exposed this vulnerability repeatedly, and Basharat possesses similar technical precision. His front kicks to the body could disrupt Matsumoto's forward pressure and prevent him from establishing his volume game.

Matsumoto's Techniques Against Basharat's Gaps:

Matsumoto's wrestling presents the clearest path to victory. Basharat's 37.5% takedown defense is a glaring weakness against someone who attempts nearly 7 takedowns per fight. If Matsumoto can get this to the mat, his top control and submission threats become significant factors. His guillotine finish against Font showed he can capitalize on grappling exchanges.

Historical Parallels:

This matchup resembles the dynamic between technical point-strikers and pressure grapplers. Basharat's approach mirrors fighters like Cory Sandhagen in terms of range management, while Matsumoto's wrestling-heavy style echoes fighters who need to close distance and impose their grappling.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds:

Basharat typically starts slow and finds his rhythm as fights progress. Against Hugo, his jab became more effective in later rounds. Matsumoto, however, has shown a tendency to fall behind early before his volume takes over. This suggests Basharat may establish technical dominance in the first round through cleaner striking and distance control.

Mid-Fight Adjustments:

The critical question is whether Matsumoto can implement his wrestling effectively. If he starts landing takedowns in rounds two and three, the fight shifts dramatically. Basharat's defensive grappling has been tested less than his striking, and Matsumoto's persistence could wear on him.

Late Fight:

Matsumoto's cardio and volume typically shine in later rounds. Against Johns, he "caught up" late. However, Basharat has never been pushed to deep waters in his UFC career, maintaining control in all his fights. If Basharat can keep this standing, his technical edge should hold. If Matsumoto drags him into grappling exchanges, his submission threats become real.

Analysis and Key Points

• Basharat's striking defense (60.6%) significantly outpaces Matsumoto's (47.5%), suggesting cleaner exchanges favor the Afghan fighter
• Matsumoto's takedown attempts (6.5 per fight) versus Basharat's takedown defense (37.5%) represents the key battleground
• Matsumoto lost his last fight to Rob Font via split decision, showing vulnerability against technical strikers
• Basharat has never lost and has controlled every UFC fight he's been in
• Matsumoto's recent significant striking impact differential (-0.76) indicates he's been losing striking exchanges lately
• Both fighters lack knockout power, making this likely to go the distance

Understanding the Prediction

The model favors Basharat with a confidence score of 16, driven by several key factors:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 12.0, reflecting that Basharat is already the heavy favorite at -255
• TrueSkill increased the score by 2.0, as Basharat's rating (Mu: 29.6) exceeds Matsumoto's (Mu: 25.0)
• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 2.0, with Matsumoto at 67% recently versus Basharat's perfect 100%
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 1.0, favoring Basharat's cleaner striking exchanges
• Win Streak Difference decreased the score by 1.0
• Average Striking Output Differential increased the score by 1.0
• Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 1.0, reflecting Basharat's superior defensive numbers

The model sees Basharat's technical striking edge and perfect record as outweighing Matsumoto's grappling threats.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong track record with Basharat, going 4-0 in predictions for him: - Correctly predicted wins over Gutierrez (0.74), Hugo (0.66), Lapilus (0.76), and Rodrigues (0.69)

For Matsumoto, the model is 2-1: - Correctly predicted wins over Johns (0.61) and Katona (0.67) - Incorrectly predicted a win over Font (0.61), which Matsumoto lost by split decision

The model's perfect record on Basharat provides confidence, while the miss on Matsumoto against Font is worth noting. That loss came against a technical striker, and Basharat fits a similar profile.

Conclusion

Basharat's technical striking, superior defensive numbers, and undefeated record make him the clear pick here. While Matsumoto's wrestling presents a legitimate threat given Basharat's takedown defense issues, the Afghan fighter has shown enough grappling awareness to survive scrambles. Matsumoto's documented vulnerability to straight punches plays directly into Basharat's jab-heavy approach. Expect Basharat to outpoint Matsumoto over three rounds with cleaner striking and better distance management. WolfTicketsAI backs Basharat to extend his perfect record.

Analysis: Dustin Jacoby vs Julius Walker

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Dustin Jacoby to Win

Score: 9
Odds:
Dustin Jacoby: -205
Julius Walker: +175

Dustin Jacoby's Breakdown

Dustin Jacoby returns to the octagon riding a two-fight knockout streak, having finished both Bruno Lopes and Vitor Petrino in devastating fashion. The 35-year-old kickboxer has found his groove again after a rough patch that saw him drop three straight decisions and a KO loss to Dominick Reyes.

Signature Techniques:

1. Counter Right Hand Down the Center: Jacoby's bread and butter. Against Petrino, he recognized his opponent loading up on a wide left hook and fired his straight right directly down the pipe, landing first and producing a spectacular knockout. This technique exploits opponents who telegraph their power shots with looping punches.

2. Power Jab as a Weapon: Against Lopes, Jacoby actually stunned his opponent with a jab alone. Most fighters use the jab purely for range-finding, but Jacoby throws it with enough pop to hurt people. He then followed with uppercuts after breaking from a clinch to secure the finish.

3. Calf Kick Attack: Jacoby has built much of his recent game around chopping at the lead leg. Against Kennedy Nzechukwu, he repeatedly attacked the calf until Nzechukwu's mobility was compromised, then dropped him with a counter right. He showed tactical awareness against Reyes by switching to southpaw mid-round specifically to maintain his calf kick angle.

Technical Evolution:

Jacoby has matured into a more patient counter-striker compared to his earlier UFC run. His time in GLORY Kickboxing refined his distance management and timing. The Petrino finish showed elite-level composure, as he waited for the exact moment his opponent overcommitted before firing. His recent performances suggest he's prioritizing quality over quantity, picking his shots rather than forcing exchanges.

Dustin Jacoby's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Squaring Up Under Pressure: This is what got Jacoby knocked out by Reyes. When he successfully pressures opponents to the cage, Jacoby tends to square his stance while opening up with combinations. Against Reyes, he stepped into southpaw to pursue, squared his positioning, and ate a counter left hand that dropped him cold. Fighters who can time his forward momentum have a clear window to counter.

2. Susceptibility to Explosive Entries: Against Menifield, Jacoby would "be putting on a blinder for 2.5 minutes, and then he'd get dinged with one" big punch that turned him around. This pattern repeated throughout that fight. When opponents bridge his preferred distance with sudden explosive entries, his defense struggles to adjust.

3. Hesitation Against Power Punchers: The Murzakanov fight exposed a mental vulnerability. Jacoby appeared visibly intimidated by his opponent's power, threw only about three kicks the entire fight, and failed to utilize his significant height advantage. When he's worried about getting hit, his technical output drops dramatically.

Warning: Jacoby was knocked out by Reyes in June 2024. While he bounced back with two KO wins, the same vulnerability to counter left hands that ended that fight remains a concern.

Julius Walker's Breakdown

Julius Walker enters with just two UFC fights under his belt, a decision win over Rafael Cerqueira and a split decision loss to Alonzo Menifield. The 28-year-old brings raw athleticism and explosive power but remains a work in progress technically.

Signature Techniques:

1. Explosive Right Hand: Walker's primary weapon is a bomb of a right hand that he throws with maximum commitment. He's willing to sacrifice balance for power, creating highlight-reel potential but also leaving himself exposed during recovery.

2. Dynamic Stance Switching: Walker alternates between orthodox and southpaw throughout fights, creating unpredictable angles and complicating defensive reads. Against Menifield, this helped him time entries and create openings for his power strikes.

3. Takedown Threat: Walker's stats show 3.5 takedowns per fight with a 36.8% accuracy rate. He's willing to mix in wrestling to keep opponents guessing, though his recent numbers have dropped significantly.

Technical Evolution:

Walker has shown improved defensive awareness and a more tactical approach compared to his earlier career. He's developed greater patience in waiting for optimal striking opportunities rather than forcing wild exchanges. His stance versatility has become more purposeful, allowing him to create different angles for his power strikes.

Julius Walker's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Over-Commitment to Power Strikes: Walker frequently overextends when throwing his right hand, falling off balance after missing. Against Menifield, this created openings during recovery phases that a more technically sound opponent could exploit. Jacoby's counter-striking ability matches up perfectly against this tendency.

2. Defensive Lapses During Exchanges: Walker's head often remains stationary on the centerline after throwing combinations. He becomes susceptible to counter strikes as he resets. Jacoby's straight right down the middle could find a home here.

3. Inconsistent Technical Discipline: Walker sometimes prioritizes entertainment over fundamentals. His wild exchanges with Menifield showed moments where hand positioning, footwork, and defensive awareness became secondary concerns. Against a refined kickboxer like Jacoby, these lapses could prove costly.

Warning: Walker has fewer than 2 UFC fights, making this prediction less certain due to limited data. His recent win percentage of just 33% (1-2 in his last 3) suggests a possible downward trend.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a classic contrast between Jacoby's refined kickboxing and Walker's raw athleticism. Several key technical interactions will determine the outcome:

Jacoby's Techniques That Could Exploit Walker's Gaps:

• Jacoby's counter right hand down the center is tailor-made to punish Walker's tendency to throw wide, looping power shots. When Walker loads up on his explosive right, he leaves the centerline open. This is exactly the scenario Jacoby exploited against Petrino.

• Jacoby's calf kicks could systematically compromise Walker's stance-switching game. If Walker can't move fluidly between stances, his unpredictability diminishes significantly.

• Walker's habit of leaving his head stationary after combinations creates windows for Jacoby's jab and straight right. Jacoby's power jab alone could accumulate damage.

Walker's Techniques That Could Cause Problems for Jacoby:

• Walker's explosive entries mirror what gave Jacoby trouble against Menifield. If Walker can bridge the distance suddenly with his power right, he could catch Jacoby during one of his defensive lapses.

• Walker's takedown threat, while diminished recently, could disrupt Jacoby's kickboxing rhythm. Jacoby's takedown defense sits at 73.9%, which is solid but not impenetrable.

• Walker's stance switching could complicate Jacoby's timing, though Jacoby has shown he can adjust his own stance to maintain his attack angles.

Historical Parallel:

The Jacoby-Menifield fight provides a template. Menifield's explosive power punching disrupted Jacoby's rhythm despite Jacoby controlling extended sequences. Walker brings similar explosiveness, but with less technical refinement than Menifield showed.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds:

Jacoby typically starts methodically, establishing his jab and looking for calf kick opportunities. Expect him to measure Walker's timing and identify patterns in his stance switches. Walker may come out aggressive, looking to establish his power early. The first round will likely feature Jacoby circling and picking his spots while Walker attempts to close distance explosively.

Mid-Fight Adjustments:

If Jacoby's calf kicks land early, Walker's movement will deteriorate. Jacoby showed against Nzechukwu that he can systematically break down an opponent's mobility. However, if Walker lands a significant power shot early, Jacoby has shown he can become hesitant, as seen against Murzakanov.

Championship Rounds (if applicable):

Walker's recent striking output has dropped significantly in later rounds, with his strikes landed per minute falling from 7.0 overall to 4.5 recently. Jacoby has shown improved cardio and maintains a steady pace. If this fight goes deep, Jacoby's conditioning and technical discipline should give him an edge.

Analysis and Key Points

• Jacoby's experience advantage is massive. He has 13 UFC fights compared to Walker's 2. This octagon time translates to better cage awareness and composure under pressure.

• Walker's recent form is concerning. His win percentage has dropped to 33% in recent fights, and his striking accuracy has fallen from 65.6% to 37.6%. His significant striking impact differential has plummeted from 12.0 to just 3.4.

• Jacoby's counter-striking matches up well against Walker's tendencies. Walker's over-commitment to power shots creates exactly the openings Jacoby exploits best.

• The reach difference is minimal. Walker has a 78" reach to Jacoby's 76", so neither fighter holds a significant range advantage.

• Jacoby's knockout power is proven at this level. Two consecutive finishes against Lopes and Petrino show he can still put light heavyweights away when he finds his timing.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Jacoby stems from several key statistical factors:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 11.0 points. Jacoby is a significant favorite at -205, and the betting market's assessment aligns with the model's view.

• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 4.0 points. Jacoby's 53.6% striking defense is notably better than Walker's 38.6%, suggesting Jacoby will be harder to hit cleanly.

• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential added 1.0 point. Jacoby's recent differential of 12.2 far exceeds Walker's 3.4, indicating Jacoby is landing more meaningful strikes while absorbing fewer.

• TrueSkill decreased the score by 1.0 point. Walker's limited sample size creates uncertainty in his true skill rating.

• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight decreased the score by 1.0 point. Walker's wrestling threat introduces some variability, though his recent takedown accuracy has dropped to just 14.7%.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record predicting Jacoby fights. The model correctly called his win over Lopes (0.55 score) and his decision over Oleksiejczuk (0.66 score). However, it incorrectly predicted Jacoby to beat Reyes (0.67 score), Menifield (0.27 score), Murzakanov (0.72 score), and Rountree (0.69 score). The model has struggled when Jacoby faces explosive power punchers who can disrupt his rhythm.

For Walker, the model correctly predicted his win over Cerqueira with a high confidence score of 0.81. With only one prediction to reference, there's limited data on the model's accuracy for Walker.

This history suggests some caution. Jacoby has been a trap pick before, particularly against fighters with knockout power. However, Walker's recent decline in output and accuracy, combined with his technical vulnerabilities, make this a more favorable spot for Jacoby than some of his previous losses.

Conclusion

Jacoby's refined kickboxing, counter-striking ability, and experience advantage should prove decisive against Walker's raw but inconsistent approach. Walker's tendency to overcommit on power shots plays directly into Jacoby's strengths. The significant drop in Walker's recent striking metrics suggests he's still figuring out UFC-level competition, while Jacoby has found his rhythm again with back-to-back knockouts. Expect Jacoby to time Walker's explosive entries with clean counter shots, potentially ending this one inside the distance. WolfTicketsAI has Jacoby taking this one, and the technical matchup supports that call.

Analysis: Alex Morono vs Daniil Donchenko

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Daniil Donchenko to Win

Score: 27
Odds:
Alex Morono: +420
Daniil Donchenko: -550

Alex Morono's Breakdown

Alex Morono enters this fight on a rough stretch, having lost three of his last four UFC bouts. The most recent loss came against Carlos Leal in March 2025, where Morono was stopped by strikes after getting badly hurt in the clinch. That fight exposed some serious concerns about his durability at this stage of his career.

Signature Techniques:

1. Bouncing Entry to Jab-Right Hand: Morono works off a karate-influenced bouncing base that makes his timing hard to read. Against Santiago Ponzinibbio, he used this movement to land clean one-twos that stunned Ponzinibbio in the early rounds. The constant motion numbs opponents to his actual attacks.

2. Guillotine Choke: His most reliable submission weapon. Against Tim Means, Morono secured a beautiful arm-in guillotine with perfect hand placement in the throat, using a sit-up motion to force the tap. He first grabbed a Matt Lindland-style grip before transitioning to the proper finish.

3. Extended Combinations: Morono adapted mid-fight against Means by extending his combinations beyond the initial right hand, catching opponents who linger in range after their counter attempts.

Technical Evolution:

Morono has shifted from hunting early finishes to a more measured approach in recent years, winning several unanimous decisions. However, his performance against Leal suggests the accumulated damage from 37 professional fights is catching up. At 34, he's showing signs of wear that weren't there earlier in his career.

Alex Morono's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Clinch Striking Defense: Against Carlos Leal, Morono was systematically beaten up in the clinch. Leal used dirty boxing and inside work to damage Morono significantly. When backed against the cage, Morono resorted to throwing wild overhands while appearing nearly unconscious. This is a major red flag against any opponent with inside fighting ability.

2. Durability Under Fire: When hurt, Morono's defensive reactions have deteriorated. Against Leal, he leaned on the fence throwing desperation punches while essentially out on his feet. Against Khaos Williams, he was knocked out in 27 seconds. Power punchers can end his night early.

3. Cardio Management: Against Niko Price in 2024, both fighters gassed badly after an explosive first round, moving at "0.5 times speed" according to analysts. Morono's high-output style early can leave him depleted if he doesn't get the finish.

Daniil Donchenko's Breakdown

Donchenko is a relative unknown in the UFC, with only one octagon appearance under his belt. He stopped Rodrigo Sezinando by TKO in September 2025, but detailed technical analysis of that fight is limited. His stats paint an interesting picture though.

Signature Techniques:

1. High-Volume Head Striking: Donchenko lands 6.52 head strikes per minute, well above Morono's 3.99. He throws with volume and accuracy, connecting on 57% of his significant strikes.

2. Pressure and Output: His striking output differential of +35 per fight is massive. He overwhelms opponents with sheer volume, landing 9.44 total strikes per minute.

3. Takedown Threat: Donchenko attempts over 10 takedowns per fight, creating a constant threat that can disrupt an opponent's striking rhythm.

Technical Evolution:

With only one UFC fight, it's difficult to track evolution. His regional record of 13-2 suggests he's been dominant outside the big show, but the step up in competition remains the question mark.

Daniil Donchenko's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Takedown Defense: Donchenko's takedown defense ratio sits at just 0.33, meaning he's been taken down in his limited UFC sample. Against a fighter with any wrestling threat, this could be exploited.

2. Limited UFC Experience: One fight is simply not enough data to understand how he handles adversity at the highest level. We don't know how he reacts when his primary gameplan fails.

3. Unknown Durability: Without extensive UFC footage, his chin and recovery remain question marks. Morono does carry power in his right hand when he lands clean.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup pits Donchenko's volume and pressure against Morono's experience and technical striking. The key questions:

Donchenko's Advantages: - His 6.52 head strikes landed per minute dwarfs Morono's 3.99. If he can establish his jab and maintain output, he'll outwork Morono on the scorecards. - The constant takedown threat (10+ attempts per fight) could freeze Morono's bouncing entries, making him easier to hit. - Donchenko's 72% striking defense is significantly better than Morono's 53%, suggesting he's harder to hit clean.

Morono's Paths to Victory: - His guillotine threat could punish sloppy takedown attempts. Against Tim Means, Morono showed he can capitalize when opponents shoot without proper setup. - If Donchenko's takedown defense is truly poor (0.33 ratio), Morono could potentially use his own wrestling to control positions. - Experience matters. Morono has been in wars with killers like Ponzinibbio, Buckley, and Pettis. He knows how to survive deep waters.

The problem for Morono is his recent durability issues. Against Carlos Leal, he showed he can be hurt and finished when pressured in the clinch. Donchenko's high output could create similar problems.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Donchenko's volume advantage should establish itself quickly. Morono tends to start fast with his bouncing entries, but if Donchenko can weather that initial storm and maintain his output, he'll begin building a lead. Morono's cardio concerns from the Niko Price fight suggest he can't sustain his early pace.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Morono survives the early onslaught, his experience could help him find counters. Against Means, he showed the ability to extend combinations when opponents stayed in range. But Donchenko's superior striking defense (72% vs 53%) suggests he won't be as hittable.

Late Rounds: Morono's recent performances suggest he fades. Against Price, he was moving at half-speed after round one. Donchenko's volume game should only become more dominant as Morono tires.

Analysis and Key Points

• Morono was recently KO'd by Carlos Leal in March 2025, showing serious durability concerns when pressured in the clinch. This is a major warning sign.
• Donchenko has only one UFC fight, which limits our data. However, his regional dominance (13-2) and statistical profile suggest a high-output pressure fighter.
• Volume differential is massive: Donchenko lands 9.44 strikes per minute to Morono's 5.87. Over 15 minutes, that adds up.
• Morono's recent win percentage is 0% in his last stretch, having lost three of four. The downward trend is real.
• The odds heavily favor Donchenko (-550), and the model agrees despite limited data on the Russian.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence score of 27 for Donchenko is relatively low, but several factors pushed the prediction:

• Odds decreased the score by 18 points. Donchenko is a heavy favorite, which the model accounts for.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential decreased by 2 points, reflecting Morono's historical advantage in this area.
• Recent Win Percentage decreased by 2 points, acknowledging Morono's recent struggles.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight decreased by 2 points.
• Reach increased the score by 1 point. Donchenko's 71-inch reach is close to Morono's 72 inches.
• Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage increased by 1 point, favoring Donchenko's 72% defense.

The model sees Donchenko's volume and defensive advantages outweighing Morono's experience edge.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a solid track record with Morono fights, going 6-2 in predictions involving him:

• Correctly predicted Carlos Leal to beat Morono (0.78 confidence)
• Correctly predicted Daniel Rodriguez to beat Morono (0.58 confidence)
• Incorrectly predicted Morono over Niko Price (0.64 confidence)
• Correctly predicted Morono over Court McGee (0.58 confidence)
• Correctly predicted Buckley over Morono (0.42 confidence)
• Correctly predicted Morono over Tim Means (0.30 confidence)
• Correctly predicted Ponzinibbio over Morono (0.70 confidence)
• Incorrectly predicted Semelsberger over Morono (0.33 confidence)

The model has been particularly accurate when picking against Morono recently, correctly calling his losses to Leal, Rodriguez, Buckley, and Ponzinibbio.

Donchenko has no prediction history, which adds uncertainty. The model is working with limited UFC data on him.

Conclusion

Daniil Donchenko should handle Alex Morono here. The volume differential is too significant, and Morono's recent durability issues against Carlos Leal are concerning. Morono has the experience and submission threat to make it interesting, but his 0% recent win rate and the KO loss in March suggest he's on the decline. Donchenko's pressure and output should overwhelm the veteran over three rounds. WolfTicketsAI has Donchenko taking this one.

Analysis: Bruna Brasil vs Ketlen Souza

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Ketlen Souza to Win

Score: 7
Odds:
Bruna Brasil: +135
Ketlen Souza: -155

Bruna Brasil's Breakdown

Bruna Brasil brings a Muay Thai-heavy approach to the strawweight division. Her game centers on leg kicks from distance, clinch knees, and volume striking. Against Molly McCann in July 2024, Brasil showed her ability to control pace and work behind those leg kicks, keeping McCann on the back foot for three rounds. Her length allows her to land kicks at range before opponents can close distance.

Brasil has a solid guillotine choke as a defensive weapon when opponents shoot. Her long arms and good technique make this a legitimate threat when fighters overcommit on takedowns. Against Shauna Bannon in 2023, Brasil demonstrated effective cage cutting and combination striking, using feints to draw reactions before landing precise counters.

The problem is Brasil has lost 2 of her last 3 UFC fights. She dropped a unanimous decision to Wang Cong in February 2025 and lost to Loma Lookboonmee in February 2024. The Lookboonmee fight exposed her struggles against fighters who can control distance from the clinch and land precise strikes. When her leg kick game gets neutralized, Brasil lacks a clear Plan B.

Signature Techniques: - Leg kicks from range to slow opponent movement (effective vs McCann in rounds 1-2) - Muay Thai knees in the clinch (used to control McCann throughout their fight) - Spinning kicks and unorthodox strikes (though these have been inconsistent)

Technical Evolution: Brasil has improved her wrestling defense in recent fights, showing better takedown defense ratios. But her striking output differentials remain negative, meaning she's absorbing more than she's landing across her UFC career.

Bruna Brasil's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Chin Exposure When Retreating: Brasil has a dangerous habit of stepping back with her chin up when under pressure. Denise Gomes exploited this in April 2023, landing overhand punches that led to a TKO finish. Brasil's defensive posture when moving backward creates a clear target for power punchers.

2. Overcommitment on Spinning Techniques: Brasil loves spinning kicks and strikes, but she often overextends and loses balance. Against Gomes, these attacks left her positionally compromised and open to counters. The flashy techniques look good when they land but create massive openings when they miss.

3. Struggles Against Clinch Pressure: Lookboonmee controlled Brasil effectively from the clinch in their 2024 fight, landing precise strikes while Brasil struggled to create separation. When opponents can close distance and work inside, Brasil's range-dependent game falls apart.

Warning: Brasil was KO'd by Denise Gomes in April 2023. That same chin vulnerability could be exploited again.

Ketlen Souza's Breakdown

Ketlen Souza fights with a composed, counter-striking style that punishes aggressive opponents. Her performance against Yazmin Jauregui at UFC 306 showcased her best attributes. She stayed patient under early pressure, then landed a devastating right hand-left hook combination that dropped Jauregui. From there, she secured back position and finished with a rear-naked choke in round one.

Souza's counterpunching system is built around inside slipping. She slips to her left against forward pressure, then fires short right straights or left hooks. Against Angela Hill in February 2025, she used this technique repeatedly, picking Hill apart despite losing a split decision. Her body work is particularly notable. She commits to right straights to the body that drain opponents' cardio and open up head strikes later.

Against Marnic Mann in April 2024, Souza dominated with volume, landing 80 significant strikes to Mann's 31. She showed she can push pace when needed, not just counter. Her recent fights demonstrate improved defensive movement and better cage cutting ability.

Signature Techniques: - Inside slip to left hook counter (used effectively vs Hill throughout their fight) - Right straight to the body (set up the finish vs Jauregui by compromising her breathing) - Stance switching off inside low kicks (created new angles vs Hill in round 3)

Technical Evolution: Souza has expanded her kicking arsenal recently, using inside low kicks as positioning tools rather than just offensive weapons. Her ability to switch stances mid-fight has improved, creating confusion for opponents trying to read her counters.

Ketlen Souza's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Defensive Gaps During Stance Switches: When Souza transitions from orthodox to southpaw following an inside low kick, she momentarily drops her guard. This creates a brief window for counters that technically aware opponents can exploit.

2. Body Exposure Under High Guard: Souza relies on a high guard defensive shell when pressured. While this protects her head, it leaves her body exposed to kicks. Hill targeted this vulnerability in their 2025 fight, landing body kicks when Souza shelled up.

3. Submission Vulnerability: Souza lost to Karine Silva via leg lock in June 2023. When the fight goes to the ground against skilled grapplers, Souza has shown susceptibility to lower body submissions. Her grappling defense has improved but remains a question mark against submission specialists.

Note: Souza has lost 2 of her last 3 fights (split decisions to Piera Rodriguez and Angela Hill), though both were razor-close.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup favors Souza's counter-striking against Brasil's forward pressure and spinning attacks. Brasil's tendency to overcommit on spinning techniques plays directly into Souza's inside slip counter system. When Brasil throws those spinning kicks and misses, Souza can time her right hand-left hook combination.

Brasil's habit of retreating with her chin up is particularly concerning against Souza's counterpunching. Souza has shown she can hurt opponents with precise counters, as she did against Jauregui. Brasil's defensive posture when moving backward creates the exact openings Souza looks for.

The leg kick battle could be interesting. Brasil lands 0.46 leg kicks per minute while Souza lands 0.88. Souza's higher output here could slow Brasil's movement and limit her ability to set up those spinning attacks.

However, Brasil's clinch knees could cause problems if she can close distance. Souza's high guard leaves her body exposed, and Brasil's Muay Thai background gives her tools to work inside. The question is whether Brasil can get there against Souza's jab and counter system.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Souza likely establishes her jab and counterpunching rhythm. Brasil will look to land leg kicks and set up her spinning attacks. If Brasil overcommits early, Souza has the timing to punish her. The first round could be feeling-out, but Souza's composure gives her an edge in reading Brasil's patterns.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Brasil's spinning attacks aren't landing, she'll need to shift to more conventional striking. This plays into Souza's hands, as Brasil becomes more predictable. Souza's body work should start paying dividends here, slowing Brasil's movement and reducing her power output.

Late Rounds: Brasil's cardio has been tested in her recent decision losses. Souza's body punching and pace control could compound any fatigue issues. If the fight goes to the third round, Souza's conditioning and technical execution should give her the edge.

Analysis and Key Points

• Brasil's spinning attacks are high-risk against Souza's counters. Every missed spinning kick creates an opening for Souza's right hand-left hook combination.
• Brasil's chin vulnerability is a major concern. She was KO'd by Gomes in 2023, and Souza has the timing and power to find that chin when Brasil retreats.
• Souza's body work could be decisive. Her commitment to body punching drains opponents' cardio and creates openings for head strikes.
• Brasil has lost 2 of her last 3 fights. This downward trend suggests she's struggling against UFC-level competition.
• Souza's counterpunching system matches up well. Brasil's forward pressure and overcommitment create the exact openings Souza exploits.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Souza comes from several key factors:

• TrueSkill increased the prediction score by 3.0. Souza's overall skill rating is higher than Brasil's, reflecting her more consistent performances.
• Recent Win Percentage increased the score by 2.0. Both fighters are 1-2 in their last 3, but Souza's wins have been more impressive.
• Reach increased the score by 2.0. Souza's 63-inch reach vs Brasil's 65-inch reach is actually shorter, but the model factors in how each fighter uses their length.
• Odds decreased the score by 3.0. Souza is the favorite at -155, which the model accounts for.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential decreased the score by 2.0. Brasil actually has better striking impact numbers, but this wasn't enough to overcome other factors.
• Average Striking Output Differential decreased the score by 1.0. Both fighters have negative differentials, but Brasil's is worse at -66.0 vs Souza's -27.6.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with both fighters. For Brasil, the model correctly predicted her loss to Wang Cong and her loss to Lookboonmee, but incorrectly picked McCann to beat her. The model has been right when betting against Brasil.

For Souza, the model correctly predicted her win over Marnic Mann but incorrectly picked Jauregui to beat her. The model also correctly predicted Souza would lose to Rodriguez and Hill, though both were split decisions.

The model has been more accurate when picking against Brasil (2-1) than when picking for or against Souza (3-1). This suggests some confidence in the Souza pick, though the Jauregui upset is worth noting.

Conclusion

Ketlen Souza's counter-striking system matches up well against Bruna Brasil's aggressive, spinning-heavy approach. Brasil's tendency to overcommit and retreat with her chin up creates the exact openings Souza exploits. With Brasil coming off a loss to Wang Cong and having been KO'd by Gomes in 2023, the chin vulnerability remains a concern. Souza's body work and patience should allow her to pick Brasil apart over three rounds. WolfTicketsAI has Souza winning this one, and the technical matchup supports that call.

Analysis: Wang Cong vs Eduarda Moura

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Wang Cong to Win

Score: 27
Odds:
Wang Cong: -340
Eduarda Moura: +280

Wang Cong's Breakdown

Wang Cong brings elite kickboxing credentials into this fight, including a victory over Valentina Shevchenko in kickboxing back in 2015. Her UFC run sits at 3-1, with her only loss coming via submission to Gabriella Fernandes. That loss exposed her grappling vulnerabilities, but her striking remains a cut above most of the division.

Signature Techniques:

1. Defensive Hand Positioning with Palm Checking: Against Bruna Brasil, Wang employed an open-palm high guard specifically designed to neutralize jabs. She alternates between her right hand and crossing her left over to check strikes. This system completely shut down Brasil's primary weapon throughout their fight.

2. Southpaw Stance-Switching Combinations: Wang frequently transitions to southpaw to set up her jab through hand-fighting sequences. Against Brasil, she would touch the lead hand, flick it aside, then drive her jab straight down the middle. She also chains this into orthodox stance switches with left hook to right straight combinations.

3. Precision Right Straight: Her knockout of Victoria Leonardo came from a perfectly timed right hand that traveled straight through Leonardo's centerline when her defensive awareness was compromised. Wang's mechanics show proper weight transfer and hip rotation without overcommitting.

Technical Evolution:

Wang has refined her distance management considerably. Against Brasil, she demonstrated sophisticated range control by leading Brasil around the cage rather than backing straight up. When Brasil began checking her calf kicks by lifting her lead leg, Wang immediately adapted by stamping side kicks onto the checking leg. This kind of real-time adjustment shows a fighter who processes information quickly.

Wang Cong's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Submission Defense: The Fernandes loss via submission remains the glaring hole in her game. When taken down and controlled, Wang lacks the technical jiu-jitsu to escape or threaten from bottom position. Fernandes was able to secure the finish after neutralizing Wang's striking advantage.

2. Rooted Head Movement at Range: When slipping punches in open space, Wang tends to plant her feet rather than incorporating footwork. Against Brasil, this created moments where follow-up right hands or low kicks could have landed if Brasil had thrown them. Opponents who can chain three or more strikes in succession find openings.

3. Defensive Posture When Retreating: When pressured along the fence, Wang sometimes jabs while circling simultaneously. This raises her head position and creates vulnerability to overhand counters. Brasil landed clean shots during these moments.

Eduarda Moura's Breakdown

Moura enters at 3-1 in the UFC, with her lone loss being a split decision to Denise Gomes at strawweight. She has since moved up to flyweight and looked much better, outworking Lauren Murphy and Veronica Hardy in back-to-back decisions. The weight class change appears to suit her.

Signature Techniques:

1. Persistent Takedown Pressure: Moura averages 10.3 takedown attempts per fight. Against Veronica Hardy, she secured takedowns at the end of round one and start of round two after Hardy had landed her best punch of the fight. She chain wrestles effectively, switching from double-leg to single-leg when initial attempts are defended.

2. Mount Control with Wrist Trapping: Once on top, Moura excels at establishing mount and neutralizing opponents by trapping their wrists against the mat. Against Montserrat Conejo Ruiz, she used a knee-over-bicep technique to strip defensive grips, creating crucifix-like positions for striking opportunities.

3. Clinch Work with Hand-Under-Chin Technique: Against Gomes, Moura demonstrated sophisticated clinch escapes using an overhook with forearm under the neck combined with upward pressure under the chin to create space. She employs a "moonwalk" exit technique, walking backward at an angle while maintaining control.

Technical Evolution:

Moura's move to flyweight has been significant. Against Hardy, she appeared a full head taller with notable reach advantages. Her cardio looked improved compared to her strawweight bouts where she missed weight twice. The size advantage allowed her to control distance more effectively.

Eduarda Moura's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Limited Striking Output and Defense: Moura's striking defense percentage sits at just 46.4%, and her significant striking defense is 61.2%. She absorbs strikes at a concerning rate when forced to stand. Against Gomes, she became overly reliant on boxing combinations and under-utilized her kicking game, becoming predictable.

2. Defensive Gaps During Resets: When switching stances or resetting position, Moura leaves openings. Against Gomes in round four, she turned and moved away rather than maintaining defensive positioning, allowing Gomes to land a clean counter that shifted momentum. This pattern of turning her back slightly when resetting is exploitable.

3. Takedown Accuracy Issues: Despite high volume, Moura only converts 36.1% of her takedown attempts. Against a fighter with strong takedown defense like Wang (100% TDD in the UFC), she may burn significant energy on failed attempts without securing the positions she needs.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight presents a classic striker vs grappler dynamic, but the technical details favor Wang considerably.

Wang's Techniques vs Moura's Tendencies:

Wang's palm-checking defensive system should neutralize Moura's jab-cross combinations effectively. When Moura attempts to close distance for clinch entries, Wang's step-up front kicks and calf kicks can punish her forward movement. Against Brasil, Wang demonstrated the ability to lead opponents around the cage while landing kicks as they stepped onto their lead leg. Moura's tendency to reset by turning away creates perfect opportunities for Wang's timed right straight.

Moura's Techniques vs Wang's Tendencies:

Moura's best path to victory runs through her grappling. Wang's submission loss to Fernandes proves she can be finished on the ground. However, Wang's 100% takedown defense in the UFC presents a major obstacle. Moura will need to chain her wrestling extensively, but her 36% accuracy against Wang's defensive awareness makes this a difficult proposition.

The size matchup is interesting. Moura has a 1-inch reach advantage (67" to 66"), but Wang's kickboxing experience means she understands range management at an elite level. Against Hardy, Moura used her size to control distance, but Wang is a different animal entirely when it comes to striking exchanges.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds:

Wang should establish dominance quickly. Her jab and front kicks will measure distance while her calf kicks accumulate damage on Moura's lead leg. Moura will likely shoot takedowns early, but Wang's defensive wrestling has held up against everyone except Fernandes, who caught her in a scramble. Expect Wang to stuff initial attempts and make Moura pay with counter strikes.

Mid-Fight Adjustments:

If Moura cannot secure takedowns in the first two rounds, her cardio becomes a concern. Her high-volume takedown approach (15.8 attempts per fight recently) burns energy rapidly. Wang's measured striking approach conserves energy while Moura expends it on failed shots. By round two, Moura may need to stand and trade more, which plays directly into Wang's hands.

Late Rounds:

Wang has shown excellent cardio management. Against Brasil, she maintained offensive pressure through all four rounds, breaking Brasil's nose in round three and continuing to implement her game plan. If this fight reaches the third round with Moura unable to secure meaningful ground control, Wang should cruise to a decision.

Analysis and Key Points

• Wang's striking volume is elite: She lands 7.58 significant strikes per minute compared to Moura's 3.16. This output differential will be difficult for Moura to overcome standing.

• Takedown defense is the key stat: Wang's 100% TDD vs Moura's 36% accuracy creates a fundamental problem for Moura's game plan.

• Moura's striking defense is concerning: At 46.4% striking defense, she will absorb significant damage if forced to stand with Wang's precision.

• Wang's only loss came via submission: This remains the path for Moura, but getting there requires winning the wrestling exchanges first.

• Moura has shown vulnerability to technical strikers: Against Gomes, she struggled when her opponent could time her entries and land counters during resets.

Understanding the Prediction

The model heavily favors Wang Cong, and the SHAP features explain why:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 16.0 points. The betting market sees Wang as a significant favorite, and the model agrees.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential added 7.0 points. Wang lands clean while absorbing little, a massive advantage in a striking matchup.
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential added 2.0 points. Wang's recent performances show continued striking dominance.
• Recent Win Percentage added 2.0 points. Wang's 67% recent win rate edges Moura's identical 67%.
• Striking Impact Differential added 2.0 points. Wang's overall striking efficiency supports the prediction.
• Striking Defense Percentage added 2.0 points. Wang defends 62.8% of strikes compared to Moura's 46.4%.
• TrueSkill added 1.0 point. Both fighters have identical TrueSkill ratings, but Wang's striking metrics push her ahead.

The only negative factor was Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight, which decreased the score by 2.0 points. Moura's high-volume wrestling approach is acknowledged, but the model doesn't see it as enough to overcome Wang's advantages.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has been perfect on Wang Cong, correctly predicting her victories over Ariane da Silva (0.77 confidence) and Bruna Brasil (0.77 confidence). Both fights ended in unanimous decisions, exactly as the model anticipated.

The model's record on Moura is more mixed. It correctly predicted her win over Lauren Murphy (0.73 confidence) but missed on her loss to Denise Gomes (0.70 confidence) and incorrectly picked Veronica Hardy to beat her (0.56 confidence). This suggests the model may undervalue Moura's grappling-heavy approach in certain matchups.

That said, Wang Cong represents a different challenge than Hardy or Gomes. Wang's striking credentials and takedown defense are superior to anyone Moura has faced in the UFC.

Conclusion

Wang Cong should handle this fight comfortably. Her elite striking will keep Moura at range, and her takedown defense should neutralize Moura's primary weapon. Moura's path to victory requires securing takedowns against a fighter who has stuffed 100% of attempts in the UFC, then submitting someone with limited ground experience. It's possible, but unlikely.

WolfTicketsAI picks Wang Cong to win, and the technical matchup supports that conclusion. Expect Wang to outwork Moura on the feet, stuff takedown attempts, and cruise to a decision or potentially find a late stoppage if Moura's cardio fades from failed wrestling exchanges.

Analysis: Muin Gafurov vs Jakub Wiklacz

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Muin Gafurov to Win

Score: 10
Odds:
Muin Gafurov: -104
Jakub Wiklacz: -116

Muin Gafurov's Breakdown

Gafurov enters this fight on a two-fight win streak after going 0-2 to start his UFC career. His recent unanimous decision over Rinya Nakamura at UFC 311 showed a fighter who has learned to pace himself better, while his victory over Kyung Ho Kang demonstrated his ability to survive adversity and finish strong.

Signature Techniques:

1. Calf Kicks and Low Leg Attacks: Against Kang, Gafurov opened with a hard calf kick just 30 seconds in that immediately established his range and willingness to damage the lead leg. He uses these kicks to set up his power shots and disrupt opponent movement.

2. Overhand Right and Wild Combinations: Gafurov throws with bad intentions. Against Kang in Round 2, he landed a big combination in the clinch that visibly hurt his opponent. His willingness to swing for the fences creates chaos that favors his style.

3. Late Round Surges: In the final round against Kang, Gafurov landed a massive hook that nearly finished the fight despite being taken down multiple times. This shows his cardio has improved from the Castaneda fight where he gassed out.

Technical Evolution: The difference between the Castaneda loss and his recent wins is clear. Gafurov has learned to manage his output better. He no longer throws everything in Round 1 and fades. His takedown defense has also improved, going from 50% career to 75% in recent fights.

Muin Gafurov's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Neck Exposure on Forward Pressure: Against Said Nurmagomedov at UFC 294, Gafurov got caught in a guillotine choke at 1:13 of Round 1. He was pushing forward aggressively and left his neck completely exposed. This is a massive red flag against Wiklacz, whose guillotine forced Patchy Mix to roll to his back repeatedly.

2. Susceptibility to Takedowns When Overcommitting: Kang took Gafurov down multiple times and achieved mount twice during their fight. When Gafurov loads up on his punches, he leaves himself open to level changes. His 9% takedown accuracy also suggests he cannot reliably put opponents on their back when he wants to.

3. Cardio Concerns Under Pressure: While improved, Gafurov still showed fatigue signs against Kang in the middle rounds before rallying late. Against Castaneda, he completely gassed out and lost a clear decision. If Wiklacz can make this a grinding fight, Gafurov's output could drop significantly.

Jakub Wiklacz's Breakdown

Wiklacz makes his UFC debut after a split decision win over Patchy Mix at Bellator. That victory alone tells you this guy belongs here. Mix is one of the best grapplers in MMA, and Wiklacz made him look ordinary.

Signature Techniques:

1. Guillotine Choke: This is Wiklacz's money move. Against Mix, he threatened the guillotine so effectively that an elite wrestler had to roll to his back just to escape. Both of his recent finishes came via guillotine. When opponents shoot on him, they are entering a danger zone.

2. Butterfly Guard Sweeps: Wiklacz uses an active butterfly guard to constantly threaten sweeps. Against Mix, this forced the wrestler to sprawl out and abandon his top control attempts. He turns a defensive position into an offensive weapon.

3. Body Triangle Control: When opponents sprawl to avoid his sweeps, Wiklacz kicks them back to closed guard and locks a body triangle. Mix could do nothing from this position. Wiklacz essentially neutralized one of MMA's best wrestlers by making every position uncomfortable.

Technical Evolution: With only one UFC fight on record, the sample size is limited. But his Bellator performance showed a fighter comfortable accepting bottom position because he trusts his guard work completely.

Jakub Wiklacz's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Over-Reliance on Guard Play: Wiklacz tends to accept bottom position rather than prioritize standing up. Against Mix, he played guard when he could have been working to his feet. Judges who favor top control could score against him, and opponents who can damage from within guard present problems.

2. Limited Finishing Rate: Despite strong grappling, Wiklacz has only two finishes in his last eight fights. He controls positions well but struggles to convert to stoppages. This could lead to close decisions that don't go his way.

3. Striking Defense Questions: Wiklacz's striking defense percentage sits at just 36.21%. Against a volume striker like Gafurov who throws with power, absorbing shots at that rate could lead to trouble on the feet.

Warning: Wiklacz has only one UFC fight. This prediction carries more uncertainty due to limited data in the Octagon.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight presents a fascinating clash. Gafurov's aggressive forward pressure and wild combinations could walk him directly into Wiklacz's guillotine trap. We saw exactly this happen against Nurmagomedov when Gafurov got caught at 1:13 of Round 1.

However, Gafurov's improved takedown defense (75% recently) means Wiklacz cannot simply shoot and drag him down. If Wiklacz cannot get the fight to the ground, his limited striking defense becomes a liability against Gafurov's volume.

The key question: Can Gafurov pressure without overcommitting? Against Kang, he showed more discipline. But Wiklacz's guillotine is a different beast than what Kang offered. Mix is an elite grappler and he had to roll to his back repeatedly just to escape.

Gafurov's calf kicks could be the difference maker. If he chops at Wiklacz's lead leg early and often, he can damage the base Wiklacz needs for his guard work. Against Kang, that opening calf kick set the tone for the entire fight.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Gafurov typically comes out aggressive. Expect calf kicks and probing combinations. Wiklacz will likely look to establish his range and potentially bait Gafurov into overcommitting for a guillotine opportunity. The first exchange where Gafurov shoots forward recklessly could determine the fight.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Gafurov survives the early guillotine threats, his volume should start to accumulate. Wiklacz's 36% striking defense means he will absorb damage. Gafurov's improved cardio management (shown against Nakamura and Kang) suggests he can maintain output through Round 2.

Championship Rounds: If this goes to Round 3, Gafurov's late surges become relevant. He nearly finished Kang with a big hook in the final seconds. Wiklacz has shown he can go the distance, but his offensive output from bottom position may not be enough to steal rounds on the scorecards.

Analysis and Key Points

• Gafurov's guillotine vulnerability is the elephant in the room. Nurmagomedov submitted him in 73 seconds with this exact technique. Wiklacz's guillotine is his best weapon.
• Wiklacz's striking defense is concerning. At 36%, he will absorb significant volume from Gafurov's high-output style.
• Takedown defense favors Gafurov. His recent 75% TDD rate means Wiklacz cannot simply drag him down at will.
• Gafurov's recent form is better. Two straight wins after starting 0-2 in the UFC shows adaptation.
• Wiklacz has limited UFC data. One fight makes prediction more difficult.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence comes from several key factors:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 4.0, reflecting the market's slight lean toward Gafurov despite Wiklacz being the betting favorite.
• TrueSkill increased the score by 3.0, accounting for Gafurov's longer track record and recent improvements.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight increased the score by 3.0. Gafurov attempts 5.4 takedowns per fight recently, giving him grappling initiative options.
• Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 3.0. Gafurov's 62% defense rate is significantly better than Wiklacz's 36%.
• Striking Defense Percentage added 2.0 more, reinforcing Gafurov's defensive advantage on the feet.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential and related metrics each added 1.0, showing Gafurov lands cleaner shots relative to what he absorbs.
• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 2.0, as Wiklacz's 85% recent win rate is higher than Gafurov's 67%.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with Gafurov. The model correctly predicted his win over Kang and correctly picked against him versus Nurmagomedov. However, it incorrectly predicted Nakamura to beat Gafurov at UFC 311, and Gafurov won that fight by unanimous decision.

This is Wiklacz's first UFC fight, so there is no prediction history for him. The lack of data on Wiklacz introduces uncertainty, but the model's recent miss on Gafurov (underestimating him against Nakamura) suggests it may have been undervaluing his improvements.

Conclusion

Gafurov's improved takedown defense, superior striking volume, and better cardio management give him the tools to win this fight on the feet. Wiklacz's guillotine is dangerous, and Gafurov has been caught by it before. But if Gafurov fights with the discipline he showed against Nakamura and Kang rather than the recklessness that got him submitted by Nurmagomedov, he should outwork Wiklacz over three rounds. WolfTicketsAI has Gafurov taking this one.