UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Analysis: Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Joshua Van to Win

Score: 9
Odds:
Joshua Van: -130
Alexandre Pantoja: +110

Joshua Van's Breakdown

Van is the new blood at 125, a pressure boxer who walks people down and stacks damage like compound interest. Since dropping his UFC debut-era loss to Charles Johnson, he has ripped off a run that landed him the belt and now a title defense against the man he technically already beat. Understand though, that first meeting on 2025-12-06 lasted 26 seconds and told us almost nothing. Pantoja caught a kick, Van shoved, and the champ's elbow gave out. Van himself admitted he had "no gameplan." So throw that fight out for technical purposes. We are really looking at Van versus a full five rounds of Pantoja.

His signature tools:

• Body-to-head combination breakdown. The Taira title win on 2026-05-09 was the clearest example. In Round 3 Van committed to a shoeshine flurry, front kick to the body, jab, right uppercut to the body, hitting the body eight or nine times in about 15 seconds before switching upstairs with a left hook to body, right straight to head for the finish. This is his most reliable path to a stoppage.
• Offensive cross counter off the slip. Also in the Taira fight Round 3, he slipped inside Taira's jab, threw the right hand across the top, then chained left hook, right uppercut, and more. Against Bruno Silva on 2025-06-07 the same counter uppercut punished Silva's falling-in overhand all night.
• Shifting jab-cross-left straight. The step-through third punch dropped Silva in Round 1. It generates unexpected power and angle from what looks like the end of a combination.

His technical evolution is real. He survived Taira's mount and gorgeous passing in Round 2, then recovered to impose his boxing, exactly the wrestling-survival skill he lacked earlier. His recent win percentage is 100% and his recent significant striking impact differential is enormous.

Joshua Van's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Southpaw left straight during forward pressure. This is the recurring hole. Charles Johnson used it from southpaw before finishing him. Bruno Silva landed it clean 5-6 times when he switched stances and circled off Van's lead foot. Pantoja is orthodox, so this specific gap is less directly exploitable, but Pantoja has recently added a shifting left hook (it dropped Moreno in the trilogy) that lives in the same lane.
• Chin exposure and slow starts. Johnson iced him with a right uppercut in Round 3 on 2024-07-13 after Van started slow again. Borjas dropped him in Round 1 on 2023-11-11. Van does not bring his hands back to his chin after combinations and eats a high volume, absorbing nearly 4 head strikes per minute. Pantoja's overhand right and durability-plus-counter style is exactly the profile that catches him.
• Pressure grappling and mount. Taira controlled him from grapevined mount in Round 2. If someone locks hands, Van is in trouble. Pantoja takes backs for a living.

Alexandre Pantoja's Breakdown

Pantoja is one of the greatest flyweights ever, a 9-fight win streak before the freak injury, five title-fight-caliber wins over the division's best. He is a pressure brawler who boxes into back takes with elite BJJ underneath.

His signature tools:

• Boxing-to-back-take. His defining sequence. Against Alex Perez on 2022-07-30 he pressured with punches, ducked under, secured standing back control and finished. Against Sasaki, Royval (twice), Moreno, he consistently finds the back off chaos.
• Overhand right to low kick to clinch knee. Against Erceg on 2024-05-04 the jab-overhand-collar tie-knee opened a bad cut. Against Kara-France he mixed overhand and chopping calf kicks.
• Power twist and reap. His body-lock throw and handless reap from bottom (Royval Round 4) let him escape and reverse even while gassed.

Evolution-wise, he added the shifting left hook at American Top Team and refined his clinch trips. But he is 35 and coming off a catastrophic elbow injury.

Alexandre Pantoja's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Round 4 cardio dip. Predictable across the board. Against Erceg he faded in Round 4 before rallying in Round 5. Same against Royval, "breathing out his arse" in Round 5. Van's volume and body work are built to punish exactly this.
• Body attack susceptibility. Pantoja does not defend the body well and loads big to the head. Van's inside slip to left hook body, the shot that broke down Chairez and Borjas, targets this directly.
• Counter targets on forward pressure. His low left hand and head-first advances get him tagged. Moreno's lead uppercut snapped his head back repeatedly. Van's counter uppercut and cross counter fit this opening.

Previous Fight Breakdown

They met on 2025-12-06 for 26 seconds. Pantoja opened aggressive with a leg kick and punches, threw a high kick, Van caught it and drove forward, and Pantoja's elbow broke as he posted on the mat. TKO injury win for Van. It gave almost no technical data beyond confirming Pantoja's usual fast, kick-heavy start and Van's willingness to grapple and counter. Treat this rematch as the real first fight.

Style Matchup Dynamics

• Van's body work vs Pantoja's poor body defense. This is the key intersection. Van's shoeshine-to-body and inside-slip left hook, the tools that wilted Chairez, Borjas, and Silva, target Pantoja's most documented striking gap and compound his Round 4 fade.
• Van's counter uppercut vs Pantoja's overhand entries. Pantoja walks in behind the right hand leading with his face. Silva did the exact same "fall in" overhand and Van countered it into a knockout. That is a dangerous pattern for the champ.
• Pantoja's back-takes vs Van's grappling gaps. The clear danger. If Pantoja hurts Van in an exchange and ducks to the back, the Perez and Royval finishes are the blueprint. Van's takedown defense has improved (81% career, big numbers vs Taira and Tsuruya) but he can be controlled once hands lock.
• The Johnson comp. Pantoja carries more power and durability than most Van has faced, and Johnson proved a patient counter puncher can catch Van clean. Pantoja is a live threat to do the same in a firefight.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Pantoja comes out hot, exactly the window Van historically cedes. Watch for Pantoja to bank Round 1 with volume and maybe a takedown, the same slow-start risk that saw Van dropped by Borjas and Johnson.
• Mid-fight: Van's accumulation kicks in. His body attack and pace should start bending Pantoja by Round 3, mirroring how he took over on Taira and Silva.
• Championship rounds: This is Van's territory. Pantoja's Round 4 dip against fresh, high-volume pressure is his single most exploitable trait, and Van owns record-setting cardio and output. If it is competitive late, the younger man's tank decides it.

Analysis and Key Points

• Van's body-to-head system is the great equalizer. The same 15-second body barrage that finished Taira directly attacks Pantoja's weakest defensive area.
• Cardio math favors Van. Pantoja fades in Round 4 every deep fight (Erceg, Royval). Van set the combined-strike record with Royval and never slows.
• Counter uppercut vs the fall-in overhand. Pantoja enters like Silva did, and Silva got knocked cold for it.
• The back-take is the loss condition. Perez, Sasaki, Royval all got finished from behind. Van must keep hands from locking.
• Chin caution. Johnson and Borjas both dropped Van. Pantoja hits hard and never gets finished himself, so Van cannot get careless early.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Van with strong conviction, and the SHAP features explain why:

• significant_striking_impact_differential raised the score by 6, the single biggest driver. Van's damage output edge is enormous.
• odds added 3, reflecting his favorite status at -130.
• striking_defense_percentage added 3.
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential added 2.
• win_streak_diff, recent_win_perc, striking_impact_differential, significant_striking_output_differential, recent_significant_striking_output_differential, recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage each nudged it up by 1.
• On the other side, trueskill pulled the score down by 1, and rightly so, Pantoja's TrueSkill (Mu 34.5, tiny Sigma) dwarfs Van's, reflecting his proven elite resume. recent_striking_impact_differential, average_striking_output_differential, recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight, and recent_average_striking_output_differential each shaved off 1, with Pantoja's takedown volume being the notable grappling flag.

The striking damage picture carried the day over Pantoja's skill rating and wrestling edge.

Past Model Performance

Mixed but instructive. On Van, WolfTicketsAI is 6-1, with the only miss being the Charles Johnson KO on 2024-07-13, the exact power-puncher scenario that remains his risk. On Pantoja, the model went 4-1 in his favored predictions, missing only the 26-second injury loss to Van, which no model could forecast. The relevant caution: the one time it was wrong about Van, he got knocked out. Pantoja has real power. That said, the model has correctly called every Van fight since, including the Taira title defense.

Conclusion

Van is younger, fresher, higher volume, and his body-attack breakdown targets Pantoja's clearest weaknesses while the championship rounds tilt hard in his favor. The danger is real, Pantoja's power, back-takes, and never-been-finished durability keep him live into any exchange, and Van's chin has cracked before. But the weight of the data and the stylistic fit both point one direction. WolfTicketsAI backs Joshua Van, and backs him with confidence.

Analysis: Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Arman Tsarukyan to Win

Score: 11
Odds:
Arman Tsarukyan: -305
Mauricio Ruffy: +240

Arman Tsarukyan's Breakdown

Arman is the clear #2 lightweight in the world, and for good reason. He is a pressure wrestler with a striking game that has grown sharper every year. But the thing that makes him special is what he does once the fight hits the mat. Against Dan Hooker in November 2025, Arman showed off ground work you almost never see anymore. He pinned Hooker's hands to the canvas, kept him from framing, and rained down elbows from inside closed guard. He finished with an arm triangle by pinning the left hand, turning his body to angle in elbows, then forcing Hooker to bring his arm up into the choke. That is elite, modern no-gi grappling translated to MMA.

His signature weapons:

• Rolling guillotine escapes into top control. Against Hooker he got caught in a guillotine on a takedown, rolled through with his back to the floor and eyes to the ceiling, and came up in side control. He did it twice in that fight. He survived a sketchy dragon sleeper moment in Round 2 but still came out on top.
• Overhand right into knee in the clinch. Against Beneil Dariush in December 2023, he beat Dariush at his own game. He opened with an overhand right, secured a double collar tie, landed clean knees, then ended it with a short right hand off a knee for the first-round KO.
• Body kicks and left hooks to manage pace. Against Gamrot he ripped left body kicks to slow the switch-hitter down. Against Ramos he chopped leg kicks and picked him apart at range across three rounds.

His technical evolution is real. Early Arman was a wrestler first. Now he blends striking entries, clinch knees, and the most damaging top game in the division. He is 6-0 in his last six, with the Hooker submission being his most complete performance yet.

Arman Tsarukyan's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Cardio dips in later rounds. His only recent loss came against Mateusz Gamrot in June 2022. Arman won the early rounds with body kicks and counters, but his output dropped in the championship rounds, and Gamrot's takedowns and pressure edged him on the cards. Against Islam Makhachev back in 2019 he also faded late and got controlled. Ruffy fights at a five-round distance here, and if Arman cannot finish early, late-round fatigue is a documented risk.
• Guillotine exposure on entries. He repeatedly gets caught in guillotines when shooting. His escapes are elite, but Ruffy has knees and a frame to punish careless level changes. One bad roll and it gets dangerous.
• Height and reach disadvantage. He is short for the division at 72 inches. Against taller men, his step-up left kicks shorten up and his left hook gets tricky. Ruffy is 75 inches with real length. Hooker grabbed the double collar tie on Arman with little punishment because of that height gap, and Ruffy can use the same length to keep Arman at the end of a jab.

Mauricio Ruffy's Breakdown

Ruffy is one of the most exciting strikers at 155. He is a long, low-stance sniper who controls range with a stiff jab and finishes with highlight-reel spinning attacks. His run has been loud. Against King Green in March 2025, he set up a left hook that made Green lean back, and his reach meant Green was still in range for a wheel kick, heel to head, face plant. Against Rafael Fiziev in January 2026, he used a shoulder feint into a delayed right straight, an unusual break from the standard 1-2, and blasted Fiziev's head back before finishing in Round 2. Against Michael Chandler in June 2026 he was masterful. He read Chandler's high guard, dug to the body with a nasty liver shot, then landed two spinning wheel kicks to drop and finish him in the first.

His signature weapons:

• Spinning wheel kick set up by body work. He does not just throw it raw. Against Chandler he softened the body first to change the guard, then went upstairs with the spin.
• Stiff, long jab to control distance. Against Fiziev and Chandler the jab backed both men up and kept them from setting their feet. His length is his equalizer.
• Hand-fighting entries into the right hand. Against Green he backhanded the lead hand down, whipped a loose left hook to strip the guard, and threaded the right hand through the opening.

His evolution has been toward patience. The Llontop decision in 2024 was the first time he went to the scorecards, and he called it the fight that grew him the most. But his cardio and grappling under a five-round pace remain untested at this level.

Mauricio Ruffy's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Bottom position and grappling under pressure. This is the big one. Against Benoit Saint Denis in September 2025, Ruffy got run to the fence off a sprawl, taken down into butterfly guard, guard passed when Saint Denis pushed the bicep down and stepped over the arm, and choked out from back control. He looked tentative every time they reset because the wrestling threat froze him. Arman is a far better and more damaging grappler than Saint Denis.
• Kicking suppressed by wrestling threat. The Saint Denis fight showed that when a credible takedown threat is present, Ruffy self-limits his kicks because every kick risks a leg catch or a level change on the standing leg. His spinning attacks especially expose his back and hips to takedowns. Arman is exactly the kind of fighter who makes him hesitate.
• Body is a target and takedown defense is thin. His stats show he absorbs 1.53 body strikes per minute and only a 17.6% takedown defense rate. Arman attempts nearly 9 takedowns per fight. That is a brutal mismatch on paper.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a classic striker-versus-grappler fight, and we have already seen the blueprint. Benoit Saint Denis is a lesser wrestler than Arman, and he ran through Ruffy by mixing takedown threats with pressure. Arman does everything Saint Denis did, but better, with far more damaging ground-and-pound and cleaner submission chains.

Ruffy's path is clear. He needs to keep this standing, use his 75-inch reach to jab Arman off, and land the spinning wheel kick or the shoulder-feint right hand that dropped Fiziev and Chandler. Arman is short and has a striking defense percentage of only 40.7%, so he does eat shots. If Ruffy catches him clean early, the height and power are real threats. The heuristic warning applies here: Arman has been dropped and hurt before, and Ruffy has knockout power that ended Chandler and Green cold.

But Arman's path is wider and more reliable. His jab-to-body-kick-to-takedown blend and clinch entries let him close the distance and drag Ruffy into deep water. Once it hits the mat, Ruffy has shown he cannot get up against elite grappling and cannot strike freely with the threat looming. Arman's hand-pinning and closed-guard elbows are a nightmare for a fighter whose guard got passed by Saint Denis with a simple bicep push.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds: This is Ruffy's best window. He is fresh, his length and timing are dangerous, and Arman's suspect striking defense is exposed most before the wrestling wears Ruffy down. Expect Ruffy to jab and hunt the spinning kick early, and expect Arman to feint, close, and shoot. If Arman gets an early takedown, the elbows start piling up like they did on Hooker.

Mid-fight: As the grappling accumulates, Ruffy's kick output should drop, just like it did against Saint Denis. Arman's pressure and back-takes, seen against Ismagulov, start compounding. Ruffy's hesitation grows the more he gets put on his back.

Championship rounds: This is a five-rounder, which cuts both ways. Arman faded late against Gamrot and Makhachev, so there is a version where a durable Ruffy survives early and capitalizes on a tiring Arman. But Ruffy has only been past Round 2 once in his career, and that was against an outmatched Llontop. His deep-water grappling cardio is a total unknown, while Arman has banked many hard 15-minute fights.

Analysis and Key Points

• Arman's top game is the great equalizer. The hand-pinning and closed-guard elbows that finished Hooker are exactly what beat a tentative Ruffy off his back.
• Ruffy folded against a lesser wrestler. Saint Denis is a step below Arman and still submitted him by pushing the bicep and taking the back.
• Ruffy's power is a live threat. He iced Chandler, Fiziev, and Green. Arman's 40.7% striking defense means he can be tagged, so this is not risk-free for Arman.
• Cardio is the wildcard. Arman has faded late before. If Ruffy survives the early grappling, a Championship-round Arman is more hittable.
• Length matters. Ruffy's 3-inch reach edge and low stance can keep Arman on the end of the jab, the same jab that backed up Chandler.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Arman with a modest confidence score of 11, and the SHAP data explains why it is closer than the raw talent gap suggests.

• Odds was the biggest driver, pushing the score up 13 points. Arman as a -305 favorite carries heavy weight.
• significant_striking_impact_differential added 5 points in Arman's favor, reflecting his damage output edge over a full career.
• striking_defense_percentage pulled the score down 3 points. Arman's 40.7% defense is a genuine hole, and the model knows Ruffy can hit.
• trueskill dropped it 2 points. Ruffy's rating is climbing, and the model respects his recent form.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight added 2 points. Arman's near-9 attempts per fight is his most reliable route to victory against a 17.6% takedown defense.
• Smaller shifts from recent_significant_striking_impact_differential, striking_impact_differential, and recent output differentials nudged the number up, while recent_striking_impact_differential and a few output differentials trimmed it back down.

The net picture: the wrestling and odds favor Arman, but his striking defense and Ruffy's rising skill keep the margin tight.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong track record on Arman, hitting 6 of 7 predictions. The only miss was the Gamrot loss in 2022, which is fitting because that fight is the exact blueprint for how Arman can lose, a five-round pace where his cardio dips. That single miss is a caution flag worth respecting in a five-rounder.

On Ruffy, the model is 3-2, and both misses matter. It wrongly picked Ruffy over Saint Denis, the grappler who exposed his bottom game, and there is a data hiccup on the Fiziev entry. That means the model has already been burned once by underrating how badly a wrestler can wreck Ruffy, which supports leaning into Arman here.

Conclusion

Ruffy is a special striker with real one-shot power, and his length gives Arman's leaky defense something to worry about early. But this matchup has a well-worn blueprint, and Benoit Saint Denis already wrote it. Arman is a better wrestler, a far more damaging grappler, and one of the few men alive who can pin your hands and elbow you apart from closed guard. Expect Arman to weather some early leather, close the distance, and put Ruffy on his back where he has already proven he cannot solve the puzzle. WolfTicketsAI sides with Arman Tsarukyan, and so should you.

Analysis: Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Dooho Choi to Win

Score: 21
Odds:
Patricio Pitbull: +220
Dooho Choi: -270

Patricio Pitbull's Breakdown

Patricio "Pitbull" Freire is one of the most decorated featherweights to ever step into a cage, but the version showing up to the UFC is a 37-year-old counterpuncher running on fumes and fight IQ. His whole game is built around patience and one big punch. Against Dan Ige in July 2025, you saw the blueprint work: Ige kept entering on straight lines, shifting and switching as he threw, and Pitbull timed him with a clean counter right hand that dropped him. That timed counter right over a linear entry remains his single best weapon.

His other calling card is that freakish base and strength for the weight class. Historically he threw around Bellator opponents a foot taller than him, and he flashed it again against Ige, getting the takedown and passing guard in the second round. His clinch inside trip has bailed him out for years when the striking stalls.

But here is the problem. His signature techniques are drying up. Against Yair Rodriguez in April 2025 he hung at the edge of range and never pulled the trigger, unable to close distance on a longer man. Against Aaron Pico in April 2026 the low output finally caught up to him hard. Pico feinted, pulled him into counters, and in Round 2 landed a pull-to-left-hook-right-straight combo that dropped Pitbull to a knee. Pitbull has now lost two of his last three, and both losses followed the same script: he waits, he gets outworked, he falls behind.

His technical evolution has gone backward. He moved from a brawling pressure fighter to a point-karate counterstriker, and while that extended his career, his output has cratered to the point of being a liability. When his counter game fails, he reaches for wrestling, but that safety net is fraying too against bigger, fresher men.

Patricio Pitbull's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Chronic low output. This is the defining flaw of his late career. Against Pico, the analysis flat out called it "low activity getting him into trouble." Choi throws over 6 significant strikes per minute. Pitbull lands under 2. If Pitbull waits like he did against Yair and Pico, he loses rounds by simply not being busy.
• Counters convert into damage when opponents vary timing. Against Pico, every time Pitbull committed to a counter, his hips opened and Pico either ran through him or landed the harder shot. A fighter who feints and mixes rhythm draws out his counter and punishes it.
• Ducking into knees and strikes. Against Ige he got stunned by a knee while ducking in on a level change. Choi's close-range uppercut game lives exactly in that lane.

Dooho Choi's Breakdown

The Korean Superboy has been reborn. The old Choi was a one-note overhand right merchant who gassed and got cracked. The 2024-2026 version is a polished, patient boxer who wins three ways: durability, boxing IQ, and finishing instinct. He is on a clean recent run and has finished his last three by KO/TKO.

Signature weapon one is the C-cut combination: overhand right to close distance, head placed on the opponent's shoulder, then a short left uppercut up the middle. He read Nate Landwehr's static triangle guard perfectly in December 2024 and walked him onto that uppercut all night before finishing. That left uppercut is genuinely elite.

Signature weapon two is his counter jab and defensive shell under fire. Against Daniel Santos in May 2026, Santos threw nearly 100 strikes early while Choi peeked through a tight guard, popped counter jabs to stay in it, then opened up the moment Santos faded and put him away with a right hand to the body. That patience is new and it makes him dangerous in every round.

His third tool is finishing awareness on the mat. He caught Landwehr in a mounted crucifix off a botched escape. He is not just a striker anymore.

His evolution is the story here. Improved patience, body work, low kicks, and ground finishing have turned a hype-train wreck into a complete featherweight.

Dooho Choi's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Durability history and early-round damage. Choi has been KO'd before by Jeremy Stephens (2018) and Charles Jourdain (2019), and his current style deliberately absorbs early volume. Against Santos and Landwehr he ate heavy shots before turning it on. This is a real KO/TKO warning, though Pitbull's declining power softens the threat.
• Left hand drops on the uppercut. When he closes to throw the left uppercut he drops that hand and squares up. Landwehr caught him with a spinning back elbow that stunned him doing exactly this. A sharp counterpuncher like prime Pitbull would love that opening.
• Slow starts against pressure. He concedes early exchanges by design. If Pitbull actually threw volume he could bank early rounds, but that is not who Pitbull is anymore.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a stylistic trap for Pitbull. His entire game depends on the opponent being aggressive and linear so he can time the counter right hand. Choi does not fight that way anymore. Choi is patient, keeps a tight shell, and lets the other man commit first, which is the exact same problem Pitbull ran into against Yair and Pico. Two counterpunchers usually means a slow feeling-out fight, and slow-paced fights are where Pitbull's low output buries him.

Choi's C-cut and left uppercut match up nastily against Pitbull's habit of ducking in on level changes. Pitbull got kneed doing that against Ige. Choi's uppercuts come up the exact middle lane Pitbull exposes when he drops down.

Pitbull's realistic path is wrestling. His base is world class and Choi's takedown defense is only decent. But his recent takedown defense numbers cratered against bigger men, and Choi is the naturally larger, longer fighter here with a 70-inch reach to Pitbull's 67. The Yair fight showed what happens when a rangier featherweight nullifies both Pitbull's counters and his wrestling.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Both men wait. But Choi is comfortable eating and countering, while Pitbull needs an aggressive opponent to counter. Expect Choi to control range with the jab and steal the round on activity.
• Mid-fight: This is where Choi historically hunts. Against Santos he opened up once the pace told, and against Landwehr he built the uppercut read over time. Pitbull's best window is a wrestling shot to change the rhythm, but that opens him to the very uppercuts Choi throws.
• Late rounds: Choi's cardio and recent volume differential favor him. Pitbull at 37 is not out-pacing anyone. The longer this goes, the worse it gets for the older man.

Analysis and Key Points

• Pitbull needs Choi to be reckless. Choi isn't anymore. The new patient Choi removes the aggression Pitbull's counter game feeds on, just like Yair and Pico did.
• Ducking-in habit meets uppercut specialist. Pitbull got kneed ducking against Ige. Choi's left uppercut up the middle is tailor-made for that error.
• Wrestling is Pitbull's only clear lane, but his recent takedown defense fell apart against larger men and Choi is the bigger fighter.
• KO warning both ways. Choi has been KO'd before and absorbs early fire, but Pitbull's power and output have both faded, so the finishing threat runs mostly one direction now.
• Volume gap is enormous. Choi lands over 6 strikes per minute; Pitbull sits under 2. Over three rounds that math is brutal.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Choi but the score of 21 is modest, and the SHAP breakdown shows why the confidence isn't higher:

• Odds pulled the score down the most, by 9, since Choi is already a heavy favorite priced in.
• significant_striking_impact_differential dropped it by 3, reflecting Pitbull's power reputation on paper.
• recent_win_perc shaved off 2.
• trueskill, reach, average_striking_output_differential, striking_impact_differential, and recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage each nudged it down by 1.
• On the positive side, recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight and recent_average_striking_output_differential each added 1 in Choi's favor.

Net effect is a lean toward Choi, tempered by Pitbull's paper metrics and the priced-in odds.

Past Model Performance

Tread carefully here. WolfTicketsAI has a rough recent record on Choi, missing on him three straight times: it picked Landwehr, Algeo, and Santos against him, and Choi knocked out all three. It also picked against Choi versus Nelson and missed. In other words, the model has repeatedly underrated Choi's finishing, and Choi keeps proving it wrong by winning. That is actually a quiet vote of confidence for taking Choi here, because every time the model doubted him he delivered. On Pitbull, the model went 1 for 2, correctly calling the Pico loss but wrongly picking Ige over him.

Conclusion

Everything points one way. Pitbull is a legend, but he is 37, low output, and dependent on aggression that Choi simply won't give him. Choi is bigger, longer, busier, hits harder now, and his patient shell-and-counter style is the exact profile that just beat Pitbull in the Yair and Pico fights. WolfTicketsAI takes Dooho Choi, and the smart read is Choi by stoppage in the middle or late rounds once Pitbull's output withers.

Analysis: Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Iwo Baraniewski to Win

Score: 20
Odds:
Alonzo Menifield: +180
Iwo Baraniewski: -220

Alonzo Menifield's Breakdown

Menifield is a 38-year-old power puncher who has spent his career living and dying by his right hand. When he times it right, he ends nights early. Look at his counter right hook against Jimmy Crute in July 2023, where he baited Crute into overcommitting on a jab-cross, slipped outside, and dropped him before finishing in the clinch with uppercuts against the fence. That is peak Menifield: bait the entry, land the counter, swarm.

His signature weapons:

• Counter right hook off a baited entry. He hangs a lazy measuring jab, leans back to look vulnerable, then fires the hook when opponents charge. He landed this repeatedly on Crute and used it to stun Zhang Mingyang in May 2026 after Zhang stood static post-kick.
• Post-clinch punch flurries. Against Zhang, whenever they broke or Zhang froze after throwing an elbow, Menifield swung back with three-punch bursts and hurt him. He punishes opponents who stand still after their own offense.
• Opportunistic grappling. Do not sleep on his Von Flue choke on Fabio Cherant or his top control mauling of Askar Mozharov. He owns a judo-proof answer when a fight hits the mat in his favor.

His technical evolution has been a shift toward patience. The Oumar Sy win in June 2025 was a low-output, round-stealing veteran effort where he defended takedowns with a whizzer and guillotine threat, then won the striking in rounds 1 and 3. But that patience collapses the moment real pressure arrives.

Alonzo Menifield's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Chin durability and pressure defense. This is the big one. Menifield has been knocked out in three of his last six fights: Carlos Ulberg in 12 seconds (May 2024), Azamat Murzakanov in round 2 (August 2024), and Volkan Oezdemir in 87 seconds (November 2025). Against Oezdemir, he ate a knee up the middle against the fence, shelled up passively, and got flattened. That is a live, recent KO warning.
• Linear retreat and cage escape. He backs straight up rather than pivoting off angle. Ulberg exploited this by baiting his linear bull-rush and countering with left hooks that sent Menifield stumbling into the fence. Oezdemir cut off every lateral escape and pinned him. When pressured, Menifield's feet betray him.
• Passive recovery when hurt. When rocked, he covers up along the fence rather than clinching, shooting, or circling out. That shell got him finished against both Ulberg and Oezdemir. He does not fight back smart when wobbled; he freezes.

Iwo Baraniewski's Breakdown

Baraniewski is the 8-0 Polish finisher with a 100 percent first-round finish rate. Every single pro win ends in round 1. He is a judo black belt and BJJ brown belt who has chosen to box, and box violently.

His signature weapons:

• Overhand right into left hook combination. This is his money sequence. He closed the distance on the much taller Austen Lane in March 2026 and dropped him with an overhand right to left hook in 25 seconds. He negates reach by marching straight in and detonating.
• Counter right hook. Against Ibo Aslan in December 2025, he was dropped and hurt badly, shelled on the fence, then landed a perfect counter right hook when Aslan overcommitted to haymakers. Same punch Menifield loves, but Iwo throws it while under fire.
• Ground-and-pound finishing instinct. Once he drops you, he follows to the mat and pours it on, as he did to both Lane and Aslan.

His technical evolution is minimal because he keeps ending fights before we learn anything. He has never seen round 2. But the Aslan fight showed composure under fire and the ability to recover from a knockdown, which is a real trait.

Iwo Baraniewski's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Defensive striking is leaky. His pre-fight striking defense sat around 33 percent, and Aslan cracked him clean, dropping him and nearly finishing him in December 2025. He absorbs a high volume of clean shots because he walks forward with his chin available.
• Reckless firefight tendency. He turns fights into coin flips. Analysts noted Aslan "nearly saved" only by his own defensive negligence. Against a genuine one-shot power puncher, standing in the pocket like that is dangerous.
• Completely untested past 90 seconds. Every win is first round, and his average fight time hovers under a minute. We have no data on his cardio, his composure in a grind, or how he handles being outpointed. That is a real unknown against a durable veteran.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a pocket brawl waiting to happen, and both men throw the same fight-ending punch: the counter right hook and the overhand right.

• What Menifield can exploit: Baraniewski walks straight in with his chin up and a 33 percent striking defense. Menifield's counter right hook off a baited entry is exactly the punch that punishes forward-marching aggressors. Ulberg beat Menifield doing this to him; now Menifield could be the one leaning back and countering Iwo's blitz. If Iwo charges the way he did against Lane, he runs into live power.
• What Baraniewski can exploit: Menifield's chin is cracked and he shells up passively when hurt. Iwo starts fast, closes distance immediately, and swarms. Oezdemir showed the blueprint in 87 seconds: pressure Menifield to the fence, land the hard shot, and pour on volume while he covers up. Iwo does exactly that, and he does it against taller men than himself.
• Historical parallel: The Oezdemir fight is the template. A pressure fighter with fast hands who closes distance immediately overwhelmed Menifield before he could set his patient counter game. Iwo is younger, faster starting, and hits just as hard.

The key question: can Menifield land his counter before Iwo lands his blitz? Menifield's counter timing is real, but his reaction speed at 38 and his shot-absorbing habits favor the fresher, faster starter.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: This is where it likely ends. Both men are round-1 finishers. Iwo has never left round 1 in his career, and Menifield's last three losses all came inside a round and a half. Expect immediate violence. Iwo's forward pressure and faster start give him the edge in a first-minute firefight, the exact scenario where Menifield has repeatedly folded.
• Mid-fight adjustments: If Menifield survives the opening storm, the picture flips. Iwo has zero tape past 90 seconds, and Menifield's Sy fight showed he can grind, defend takedowns with a whizzer, and steal rounds. A patient Menifield who circles off the fence and forces round 2 is his only real path.
• Later rounds: Pure speculation because neither fighter goes there often. Menifield's veteran cardio and grappling could theoretically drown a gassing Iwo, but you cannot bank on reaching that water.

Analysis and Key Points

• Both throw the same finishing punch. The counter right hook decides this. Iwo landed it on Aslan while hurt; Menifield landed it on Crute and Zhang. Whoever lands first likely wins.
• Menifield's KO warning is loud. Three KO losses in his last six, including Oezdemir in 87 seconds this past November. A fast, powerful pressure fighter is his exact kryptonite, and that is precisely what Iwo is.
• Iwo's chin is a question too. Aslan dropped him. Menifield's power is legit against opponents who stand in front of him. This is not a free pass for Baraniewski.
• Iwo is untested and unproven long. Fewer than 90 seconds of fight time on average. If Menifield weathers the blitz, the unknown waters could favor the veteran.
• The Oezdemir blueprint exists. Pressure, close distance, land clean, swarm the shell. Iwo runs this naturally.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Baraniewski but with a low confidence score of 20, and the SHAP data shows why it is not a runaway.

• Odds was the single biggest factor, dropping the score by 12. Iwo is a clear betting favorite at -220, and the market pulled the model toward him hard.
• recent_win_perc (-2) and recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight (-2) nudged the score down, reflecting Menifield's grappling volume and win history.
• trueskill (-1) leaned Menifield's way, which makes sense given Iwo's enormous rating uncertainty (Sigma of 8.33 versus Menifield's 2.84). The model simply does not know Iwo well.
• On the other side, recent_significant_striking_impact_differential (+1), win_streak_diff (+1), striking_impact_differential (+1), recent_striking_impact_differential (+1), and reach (+1) all pushed toward Baraniewski.
• recent_significant_striking_output_differential (-1) and striking_defense_percentage (-1) pulled back, capturing Iwo's leaky defense.

The net result is a pick that leans Baraniewski mostly on odds and striking impact, but the low score reflects genuine uncertainty driven by his thin record.

Past Model Performance

The model has a perfect 2-0 record predicting Baraniewski, nailing both the Lane and Tafa first-round KOs with high confidence (0.80 and 0.72). That is a clean vote of confidence.

On Menifield, the model has been streaky. It correctly called his losses to Oezdemir, Murzakanov, and Ulberg, all by KO, and correctly picked him to beat Crute and Cirkunov. But it whiffed on the Zhang fight (predicted Menifield's opponent, Menifield won), the Sy upset, and the Jacoby decision. The pattern worth noting: the model reads Menifield's KO vulnerability accurately. Every time it picked against him expecting a finish, he got finished.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI takes Iwo Baraniewski, and the logic tracks. Menifield has been stopped in three of his last six, most recently flattened by Oezdemir in 87 seconds, and Baraniewski is the exact profile that ruins him: a fast-starting, heavy-handed pressure fighter who closes distance and swarms. Expect Iwo to march forward, land his overhand-right-to-left-hook, and hunt the early finish. The caution is real, Menifield's own counter right hook and Iwo's proven chin issues mean this can flip in one exchange, and the low score of 20 respects that. But the pick is Baraniewski by first-round KO.

Analysis: Gable Steveson vs Sean Sharaf

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Gable Steveson to Win

Score: 30
Odds:
Gable Steveson: -1600
Sean Sharaf: +900

Gable Steveson's Breakdown

Steveson walked into the UFC as the most decorated wrestler on the roster and then did the last thing anyone expected. He kept it standing. In his debut against Elisha Ellison at UFC 329, the Olympic gold medalist scored a first round TKO at 2:31 without landing a single takedown. That tells you everything about where his confidence sits right now.

His signature tools looked like this:

• Front kicks to the body as a range finder. Off the opening bell against Ellison he dug stabbing front kicks into the midsection, disrupting rhythm and setting up his forward march. This is his entry, not his jab.
• Clinch knees to head and body. Midway through Round 1 he closed distance, trapped Ellison on the fence, and unloaded knees that broke him down before the finish. His clinch striking numbers are absurd, nearly 4.8 landed per minute.
• The left cross as the closer. The finishing blow was a seismic left cross after the knees had softened Ellison up. He chains pressure to clinch to power punch, and that final left is the payoff.

The technical evolution here is the striking itself. Everyone expected a wrestler who chains a jab-to-body-kick-to-takedown. Instead, under Jon Jones, he's showing calf kicks, a flying knee attempt, and 71 percent striking accuracy. He landed 41 of 57 significant strikes in under three minutes. His wrestling now works as a psychological threat that freezes opponents at range rather than a primary weapon.

When his gameplan gets contested, we have almost no read. His lone takedown attempt against Ellison got stuffed and Ellison threatened a choke. Steveson simply abandoned it and went back to striking. We do not yet know what he does when he's hurt or when a fight passes the three minute mark, and that is the honest gap in his profile.

Gable Steveson's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Leaky striking defense. Even against a massive underdog, Ellison tagged Steveson with several flush shots and landed 14 total strikes in a fight lasting 151 seconds. Luke Thomas flagged the defense as the clear area needing work. Steveson's striking defense sits at 58.8 percent, mediocre for the punishment heavyweights carry.
• Wild, sloppy technique when swinging. Analysts called the debut performance "wild." He marches straight forward eating return fire. Against a heavier hitter that forward, chin-up pressure is a liability.
• Zero proven cardio. Every pro win is a first round finish. We have no film of him past Round 1. If he can't close early, his gas tank is a total unknown.

Sean Sharaf's Breakdown

Sharaf is a Marine turned heavyweight banger whose entire career, wins and losses, has ended by knockout. He's 0-2 in the UFC and has lost his last two by TKO. He is a boom-or-bust power puncher who comes to end nights early.

His weapons:

• Power haymakers and overhands. Against both Tafa and Asplund he came out winging looping power shots, hunting the early finish. When it lands, it ends fights. His regional resume is all first round stoppages.
• Opportunistic wrestling as a bail-out. Against Junior Tafa he mixed in eight takedown attempts, landed one late in Round 1, and nearly finished a gassed Tafa with ground and pound. The bell saved Tafa. This is his best path when striking turns dangerous.
• Body work. Against Asplund he landed 15 of 18 body strikes. He targets the midsection efficiently even when losing everywhere else.

The technical evolution is not encouraging. His debut against Tafa was on four days notice, so the Asplund loss with a full camp at Xtreme Couture was the real measuring stick. He still faded, still absorbed 170 significant strikes, and still got stopped standing. The camp did not fix the core problems.

When his gameplan fails, Sharaf turns into a stationary target. Against both opponents, once hurt he stopped defending, planted against the cage, and kept throwing Hail Mary shots until the referee saved him. He never goes down, but that toughness is exactly what gets him hurt worse.

Sean Sharaf's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Cardio collapse after Round 1. This is the recurring theme. Against Tafa he was exhausted by Round 2. Against Asplund his production cratered in the second and he got hemmed against the fence at 3:49 of Round 2. His recent striking defense fell to 26.7 percent as fatigue set in.
• No head movement, absorbs volume. He took 154 of 276 head strikes against Asplund and ate right hands from Tafa in Round 2 that had him "seeing stars." He absorbs a brutal 13.4 head strikes per minute. He does not slip, he blocks with his face.
• Fails to defend when hurt. Both TKO losses came with Sharaf upright but no longer intelligently defending. Referee Mark Smith stopped both fights. That pattern is a red flag against a finisher.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a bad stylistic draw for Sharaf. Steveson's whole game is fast, high-volume early pressure with a wrestling threat lurking. Sharaf's fatal flaw is the early firefight, because he loves to trade and gasses fast.

• Steveson's clinch knees vs Sharaf's fence habit. Sharaf gets hemmed against the cage and stops moving. That is exactly where Steveson finished Ellison. Steveson's clinch knee volume walks right into Sharaf's worst position.
• Steveson's left cross vs Sharaf's absent head movement. Sharaf ate flush right hands from Tafa and a nasty jab-cut from Asplund because he does not move his head. Steveson's power left is the kind of shot that has already dropped him twice.
• Sharaf's overhand as the equalizer. Sharaf's only real path is landing a bomb in the first two minutes. And here is the danger, Steveson's own defense is leaky and he marches forward chin up. If anyone on this matchup gets clipped early, it could be Steveson eating an overhand. That is why the confidence score is a modest 30 despite the huge odds gap.

The Asplund fight is the blueprint. A rangier, higher-output striker pressured Sharaf, opened him up, and drowned him in volume. Steveson brings even more pace and adds a wrestling threat Asplund did not have.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Steveson's front kicks and forward pressure should establish control fast. The real risk window is the first 90 seconds, where both men have knockout power and questionable defense. If Sharaf lands his overhand early, this flips. If not, Steveson's volume takes over.
• Mid-fight: If this reaches deep Round 1 or Round 2, Sharaf's cardio history says he fades hard, exactly as he did against both Tafa and Asplund. Steveson's clinch and pressure would compound the damage on a tiring opponent.
• Late: Neither man has shown a real gas tank. But Sharaf has proven film of collapsing, while Steveson simply has no data. Advantage to the fresher, faster man on paper.

Analysis and Key Points

• Sharaf has lost both UFC fights by TKO, both against the fence, both while still standing. That is a documented pattern against a puncher like Steveson.
• Steveson's clinch knee finish on Ellison mirrors exactly how Asplund broke Sharaf down. The fence is Sharaf's graveyard.
• Cardio is the great separator. Sharaf gassed by Round 2 twice. Steveson finishes in Round 1.
• The live-dog angle: Sharaf's overhand and Steveson's admitted defensive holes mean the early exchanges carry real risk. This is why the model's score sits low.
• Warning: Both fighters have been recently finished by strikes. Steveson has never been past Round 1, and Sharaf has been KO'd in his last two. Volatility is high.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Steveson but only at a score of 30, and the SHAP data explains the tension.

• Odds were the biggest driver, adding 18 points. The market has Steveson at -1600 for good reason.
• significant_striking_impact_differential added 9 and striking_impact_differential added 3, reflecting Steveson's monster impact numbers versus Sharaf's deeply negative differentials.
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential added 4, and striking_defense_percentage added 3, since Steveson's defense, while flawed, still beats Sharaf's collapsing recent numbers.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight decreased the score by 2, because Sharaf actually attempts more takedowns, a rare edge on paper.
• recent_striking_impact_differential shaved off 1, a small nod to how ugly Steveson's inexperience-driven data can read.
• Small bumps from trueskill, win_streak_diff, and recent output metrics rounded it out.

The low final score comes from Steveson's tiny sample size and defensive question marks pulling against an otherwise lopsided profile.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has no prediction history on either Steveson or Sharaf. There is no track record to lean on here, which adds uncertainty. Combine that with Steveson having only one UFC fight and no film past Round 1, and this pick rests more on stylistic logic and market signal than on proven model accuracy for these two names.

Conclusion

Sharaf is tough as nails but stylistically cooked here. He gases after one round, he doesn't move his head, and he stops defending the moment he's hurt, all against a faster, harder-hitting man who finishes in the first. The only live path for Sharaf is a Hail Mary overhand in the opening exchanges, and that risk is real enough to keep the score modest. But the smart read holds. WolfTicketsAI takes Gable Steveson, most likely by first round TKO against the fence.

Analysis: Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Charles Jourdain to Win

Score: 20
Odds:
Marlon Vera: +185
Charles Jourdain: -225

Marlon Vera's Breakdown

Chito Vera is one of the most durable and decorated finishers in bantamweight history, but he walks into this fight in the worst form of his career. He has dropped four straight, losing to David Martinez, Aiemann Zahabi, Deiveson Figueiredo, and Sean O'Malley. That is a hard fact you cannot ignore. All twelve of his career losses have come by decision, which tells you his chin is granite, but it also tells you he keeps getting outworked over three rounds.

His signature weapons remain dangerous. First, his front kick up the middle. Vera crumbled Frankie Edgar at UFC 268 with a perfectly timed front kick to the face in Round 3 after setting it up throughout the fight. Second, his leg and calf kick game. He famously shut down Sean O'Malley's peroneal nerve with a calf kick at UFC 252, and he chopped down Davey Grant and Dominick Cruz with the same approach. Third, his head kick, which ended Dominick Cruz in Round 4 in 2022 by reading Cruz's tendency to duck and lean.

Vera's calling card is the late surge. Against Zahabi in October 2025, he dropped him with a jab in Round 2 and buckled his knees again in the final 30 seconds of Round 3. Against Martinez in February 2026, he nearly finished a fading opponent in the last minute. When his primary plan fails, Vera does not panic. He leans on his iron chin, keeps stalking, and waits for a single fight-ending moment. The problem is that moment often arrives too late on the scorecards.

His technical evolution has stalled. The camp change to sprint training before the Zahabi fight gave him a slightly faster first round, but he reverted to the same low-volume, wait-and-counter pattern. That is the story of his recent career.

Marlon Vera's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Chronic slow starts and low volume. This is the defining flaw. Against Martinez he was outstruck 19-5 in significant strikes in Round 1. Against Figueiredo, Cory Sandhagen, and Song Yadong, he gave away early rounds by simply not throwing. His career average striking output differential sits at -35.4, which is dreadful. A high-volume fighter like Jourdain will bury him early.

• Struggles against movement and speed. Martinez's "Dominick Cruz-style movement" gave Vera fits in February 2026. He marched forward but could not land clean on the moving target. Sandhagen did the same in 2023, outworking him with volume and footwork. Jourdain's stance switching and lateral movement fit this exact profile.

• Takedown defense when kicks are caught. Martinez caught Vera's high kick and tripped him in Round 1. Aldo took his back off a caught kick in Round 3 in 2020 and rode him to a decision. His career takedown defense is a poor 39%. Jourdain hunts guillotines and level changes off exactly these moments.

Charles Jourdain's Breakdown

Jourdain has been reborn at bantamweight. He is 3-0 in the division with post-fight bonuses in all three appearances, beating Victor Henry, Davey Grant, and Kyler Phillips. His recent win percentage is 100%, and he carries real momentum after moving down from featherweight where size limited him.

His signature weapons are diverse and high-output. First, the power guillotine. He finished Davey Grant in Round 1 in October 2025 with his palm-to-palm cranking variation, and submitted Victor Henry and Lando Vannata the same way. Four of his UFC wins are guillotines. Second, his flying knee, the "Air Jourdain" trademark. He dropped Grant with a flying knee to the nose before the choke, and cut Kyler Phillips' eye with one in Round 3 to swing that fight. Third, his volume boxing to the body. He doubled Kron Gracie's output in 2023, and visibly slowed Kyler Phillips with body work before surging late.

Jourdain is a switch-hitter who fights orthodox and southpaw, using stance changes to create angles as he did against Andre Ewell in 2021. When his plan fails, he adapts mid-fight. Against Henry he baited a counter in Round 3 after two rounds of jab-circle patterns, then dropped him with a left hook-right straight and finished with the guillotine. That is high fight IQ.

His evolution is clear. He has added the power guillotine as both a finish and a takedown deterrent, and his body-to-head combination work has become a genuine breaking tool. At 135 he is no longer physically overmatched.

Charles Jourdain's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Takedown defense against bodylocks. Jourdain admitted he was unprepared for Kyler Phillips' bodylock takedowns in April 2026, giving up 3:51 of control in Round 1. Erosa took him down and submitted him with a D'Arce in 2021. Desmond Green rode him to a decision on takedowns in 2019. Vera's clinch trips and back-takes off caught kicks could exploit this if he commits.

• Counter vulnerability during combinations. Jean Silva feinted him into a predictable high kick-to-takedown pattern and knocked him out in Round 2 in June 2024. Ricardo Ramos timed a counter elbow off his left hook lead. When Jourdain over-commits, his defensive posture deteriorates. Vera's power counters, like the jab that dropped Zahabi, could find that window.

• Guard retention and bottom game. Nathaniel Wood took him down repeatedly in 2022 and neutralized his guillotine hunting. If Vera lands his own takedown, his BJJ black belt and 0.76 submissions per fight become a threat. Vera threatened triangles off his back against Martinez even in a losing effort.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a volume-and-pace fighter against a durable-but-passive counter puncher. That is the worst possible matchup for Vera right now.

Jourdain's high output is exactly what has beaten Vera repeatedly. Sandhagen, Martinez, and Zahabi all outworked him with volume and movement. Jourdain lands 7.0 strikes per minute with a +16.7 output differential, while Vera sits at -35.4. Expect Jourdain to bank the early rounds with body-head combinations and stance switches, mirroring how Martinez and Sandhagen controlled Vera on the feet.

Vera's path is his power and his grappling. His counters carry real pop, and Jourdain's tendency to over-commit in combinations is the crack to exploit, the same crack Silva and Ramos found. If Vera can catch a Jourdain flurry with a counter left hook the way he hurt Zahabi, he can change the fight in one exchange. His clinch trips and submission threats off caught kicks also match up against Jourdain's shaky bodylock defense. Watch for Vera to threaten off his back the way he did with the triangle against Martinez.

The lesson from Vera's Sandhagen and Martinez fights is unavoidable. Movement plus volume equals a decision loss for Chito. Jourdain fits that mold and adds submission danger Sandhagen did not carry.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Jourdain establishes the pace with body work and stance switching. Vera, per his entire career pattern, starts slow. He was outstruck 19-5 in Round 1 against Martinez and gave away opening frames to Figueiredo, Sandhagen, and Aldo. Jourdain banks Rounds 1 and 2.

• Mid-fight adjustments: This is where Jourdain's flying knees and guillotine hunting become dangerous. He dropped Grant and cut Phillips with knees in these spots. Vera's chin will keep him upright, but he needs to start throwing volume he historically does not throw.

• Championship rounds: This is a three-round fight, which is Vera's nightmare. Analysts noted he "probably would have been live" against Martinez if it were five rounds. His late surges, like the Round 3 pushes against Zahabi and Martinez, arrive too late in a 15-minute fight. Jourdain's superior cardio at 135 and his own finishing surges against Phillips mean the late rounds may belong to him too.

Analysis and Key Points

• Vera is 0-4 in his last four and 1-4 in his last five. This is a clear downward trend against a fighter riding a 3-0 bantamweight run.
• Volume kills Vera. Sandhagen, Martinez, and Zahabi all outworked him. Jourdain's +16.7 output differential vs Vera's -35.4 is the story of this fight.
• Warning on the guillotine. Jourdain finished Grant, Henry, and Vannata with it, often off scrambles. Vera should not shoot desperate takedowns late.
• Vera's live threat is his power counter. The jab that dropped Zahabi and the front kick that ended Edgar prove one moment can flip it. Jourdain's over-commitment tendency, exposed by Silva and Ramos, is the target.
• Grappling swing. Jourdain admitted poor bodylock defense against Phillips. Vera's clinch trips and off-back submissions are his best non-KO path.
• Three rounds favors Jourdain heavily. Vera's late surges need five-round fights to matter.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on a low confidence score of 20, which reads as a lean toward Jourdain rather than a lock. The features that moved the needle:

• Odds decreased the score by 11.0, the single biggest factor. Jourdain at -225 is a firm favorite and the market agrees.
• significant_striking_impact_differential decreased the score by 2.0, reflecting Vera's poor impact numbers.
• recent_win_perc decreased the score by 2.0, capturing Vera's 0% recent win rate against Jourdain's perfect recent run.
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential and striking_impact_differential each decreased the score by 1.0, both pointing to Jourdain's striking edge.
• average_striking_output_differential and striking_defense_percentage each dropped it by 1.0, again reflecting Vera's volume and defensive gaps.
• On the other side, recent_striking_impact_differential, reach, recent_average_striking_output_differential, and recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage each added 1.0. Vera's 70-inch reach edge over Jourdain's 69 and his recent impact metrics give him something, which is why this is not a blowout number.

The net picture is a clear but not overwhelming lean to Jourdain, driven mostly by the odds and the striking differentials.

Past Model Performance

The model has a strong read on Jourdain. It has correctly called his last three fights, including the Grant submission and the Kyler Phillips decision, and correctly picked against him when Jean Silva and Sean Woodson beat him. That is a reliable track record on this fighter. It did miss on the Ramos, Wood, and Vannata fights in the featherweight days, but the recent bantamweight reads are sharp.

On Vera, the record is more mixed. The model correctly called his recent losses to Martinez and Zahabi, and nailed the Cruz and Munhoz wins. But it wrongly picked Vera over Figueiredo and Sandhagen. The good news for this prediction is that the model's recent Vera calls, all correctly picking against him, line up with the current pick.

Conclusion

Everything points the same direction. Vera is a durable, powerful finisher, but he is 0-4 in his last four, he starts slow, and he gets outworked by volume-movement fighters. Jourdain is exactly that fighter, riding a 3-0 bantamweight run with a nasty guillotine and constant output. Vera's power counters and grappling keep him live for a single-shot upset, but over three rounds the pace should belong to Jourdain. WolfTicketsAI backs Charles Jourdain to win.

Analysis: Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis Despaigne

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Robelis Despaigne to Win

Score: 24
Odds:
Tai Tuivasa: +500
Robelis Despaigne: -700

Tai Tuivasa's Breakdown

Let's be honest about where "Bam Bam" sits right now. He's riding a seven-fight losing streak, the longest in UFC heavyweight history, and every loss has followed a familiar script. The man who once strung together five straight finishes, drinking beer from a shoe after each, is a shell of that fighter. But the tools that made him dangerous haven't fully vanished.

At his best, Tuivasa is a Mark Hunt tribute act built around three weapons:

• The counter left hook. This is the punch that saved his career. Against Greg Hardy at UFC 264, he ate a straight right that put him on a stanky leg, weathered it, then dropped Hardy cold with a counter left hook when Hardy charged in recklessly. Same weapon put Augusto Sakai to sleep. When opponents overcommit, Tuivasa can still make them pay.
• Clinch elbows and dirty boxing. Against Cyril Asker at UFC 221, he wobbled him with a counter right elbow, trapped him on the fence, and finished with elbows mixed with body work. Even in his loss to Teixeira in January 2026, round three saw him drop the Brazilian with a big elbow.
• Leg kicks as a range finder. He chopped down JDS's lead leg in round one back in 2018 and hurt Volkov's base early. When he commits to the low kick game, it works.

The technical evolution here is negative. Under Mark Hunt and later AKA, he showed brief flashes of tactical discipline. Now, after an 18-month layoff where he ballooned to 330 pounds before cutting back to 265, his cardio is shot and his fight IQ has regressed. Against Teixeira he puzzlingly grabbed the clinch when he needed a knockout. Against Rozenstruik he was too scared of counters to pull the trigger.

Tai Tuivasa's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Takedown defense is a sieve. Spivac took him down seven times and choked him out. Tybura pushed him to the fence, secured a body lock, took his back, and submitted him. Teixeira dumped him 15 seconds into their fight and rode him for two rounds. Any competent wrestler follows the same blueprint: survive early, close distance, grind him out.
• Body shot and cardio collapse. Gane folded him with body kicks in rounds two and three, Tuivasa literally hunching over to protect his midsection. His cardio was gone by the third round against both Teixeira and Ivanov. Once he's past the six-minute mark, his technique falls apart.
• Predictable, telegraphed entries. Rozenstruik ducked under his head-hunting rushes and landed blind overhands. Volkov used the check-punch-kick pattern to dismantle him every time he overextended on a calf kick. He shows opponents the same thing over and over.

Robelis Despaigne's Breakdown

Despaigne is the betting favorite at -700, and the model still only gives him a 24. That tells you something important, which we'll get to. On paper, the Cuban is a 6-foot-7 taekwondo Olympian with an 84-inch reach and genuine one-shot power.

His signature weapons:

• Explosive knockout power. He starched Josh Parisian in March 2024 with wild, powerful hand strikes after a chaotic exchange. When he connects, people go down.
• Taekwondo kicks and reach. His background gives him front kicks and roundhouse kicks, and that 84-inch reach is nine inches longer than Tuivasa's 75. In theory, he can fight at a range Tuivasa can't reach.

Here's the problem. Despaigne has lost two straight, both by decision, and both exposed the same holes. Against Waldo Cortes-Acosta and then Austen Lane, he gassed badly once the fight left the first round. His striking is telegraphed, leaning on looping punches and uppercuts that better opponents slip and counter. His recent win percentage sits at 0.33, and his TrueSkill sigma of 8.33 signals the model has very little confidence in reading him.

Robelis Despaigne's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Catastrophic cardio. This is the headline. Cortes-Acosta tired him with clinch work and ground control across three rounds. Lane dragged him the full 15 and won a decision he was heavily favored to lose. If Tuivasa's chin holds early, he's fighting an exhausted man by round two.
• Overcommits and loses balance. Against Parisian he threw a kick and fell to the canvas himself. He overextends on strikes constantly, leaving himself open to counters, exactly the kind of overcommitment Tuivasa's counter left hook feeds on.
• Ground game is nonexistent. Cortes-Acosta took him down and controlled him with ease. The one silver lining for Despaigne here is Tuivasa has zero takedowns in the UFC and never shoots, so this particular gap likely goes unexploited.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a fascinating clash of broken heavyweights. Here's how the pieces fit.

What Despaigne can do to Tuivasa: The reach and kicks are the obvious answer. If Despaigne fights smart, keeps distance, and pumps front kicks and roundhouses at range, he keeps Tuivasa out of the pocket where the Australian's counter left hook lives. Tuivasa has historically struggled badly against length. Volkov picked him apart at range, and Gane made him look ancient. Despaigne has even more reach than either. His path is to fight tall and long for one round and hope his power lands before his gas tank empties.

What Tuivasa can do to Despaigne: Counter punching. Despaigne overcommits and loses balance, and Tuivasa's entire recent value comes from timing wild, charging opponents. This is Greg Hardy all over again. If Despaigne throws a looping overhand and Tuivasa slips it, the counter left hook is right there. Tuivasa's granite chin, the one that survived Gane head kicks and Pavlovich's power, might let him weather the early storm long enough to reach Despaigne's cardio cliff.

The historical parallel is Tuivasa's own fights against durable, cardio-questionable opponents. He beat Arlovski by walking through damage and pressing forward for three rounds. If this becomes a war of attrition, the man with the better historical durability wins, and that's Tuivasa.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: This is Despaigne's window. Fresh, explosive, and rangy, his best chance is a first-round finish. Tuivasa starts slow and has been dropped or dominated early by Teixeira, Ivanov, and JDS. If Despaigne lands clean in the first five minutes, this ends.
• Mid-fight: If Tuivasa survives, the fight flips hard. Despaigne has never looked good past round one. Cortes-Acosta and Lane both watched him wilt. A round-two Tuivasa facing an exhausted Despaigne is the most dangerous version of Bam Bam left.
• Late rounds: Neither man has good cardio, but Despaigne's is demonstrably worse. If this reaches round three, it's two exhausted heavyweights leaning on each other, exactly the scenario Tuivasa survived against Arlovski and nearly stole against Teixeira.

Analysis and Key Points

• Despaigne's power is real but so is his gas tank problem. He's been out-cardioed by Cortes-Acosta and Lane, neither an elite conditioning specialist.
• Tuivasa's counter left hook thrives on exactly the overcommitment Despaigne shows. The Hardy and Sakai finishes are the template.
• Reach is the deciding physical factor. Despaigne's 84-inch reach against Tuivasa's 75 mirrors the Volkov and Gane fights that wrecked Tuivasa.
• Warning: Tuivasa was KO'd by Pavlovich and folded by Gane's body work. A clean early shot from a 6-foot-7 puncher could end him fast.
• Warning: Tuivasa is on a seven-fight skid and lost all of his last five. The downward trend is undeniable and severe.
• Warning: Despaigne has only three UFC fights and a TrueSkill sigma of 8.33. The model has limited data and low confidence in reading him.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Despaigne but with a rock-bottom score of 24, and the SHAP data explains the tension:

• Odds dropped the score by 18. This is the single biggest factor. The market has Despaigne at -700, and while the model respects that, it's the reason the pick leans his way at all.
• recent_win_perc cut the score by 2, reflecting that Despaigne has actually lost his last two fights despite being favored.
• reach dropped it by 2, an interesting note given Despaigne holds the reach edge, suggesting the model weighted it against the favorite in context.
• On the other side, striking_impact_differential, significant_striking_output_differential, average_striking_output_differential, recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight, and striking_defense_percentage each nudged the score up by 1, small pushes toward Despaigne.
• recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage pulled it back down by 1.

The takeaway: strip away the betting odds and this model sees a near coin-flip that actually leans toward the underdog. A final score of 24 for the favorite is the model quietly screaming that Tuivasa is live.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a rough history with both men, and you should weigh this heavily.

On Tuivasa, the model has actually been sharp lately, correctly calling his losses to Teixeira, Rozenstruik, Tybura, Volkov, Pavlovich, and Gane. But it whiffed on his most recent fight, wrongly picking him to beat Louie Sutherland, and it wrongly favored him against Derrick Lewis. When it picks against Tuivasa, it's usually right.

On Despaigne, the record is alarming. The model has predicted him twice, and both times it was wrong. It backed him against Cortes-Acosta and again against Lane, and he lost both by decision. That's an 0-for-2 on this exact fighter, and now it's leaning his way again, albeit weakly. That history is a genuine red flag.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI picks Robelis Despaigne, and the odds justify leaning that direction. His reach, power, and freshness give him a clear first-round path to end Tuivasa, who is a seven-fight skid deep and physically diminished. Take Despaigne to land early and heavy before his cardio betrays him. But understand what that score of 24 means: this is the model holding its nose. Tuivasa's counter left hook and granite chin make him genuinely live if he survives the opening frame, and the model's 0-2 record on Despaigne should keep any bettor honest.

Analysis: Michael Aswell Jr. vs JooSang Yoo

WolfTicketsAI Predicts JooSang Yoo to Win

Score: 7
Odds:
Michael Aswell Jr.: +210
JooSang Yoo: -260

Michael Aswell Jr.'s Breakdown

Aswell is "The Texas Kid," a pressure-forward volume boxer who wants to drag you into a firefight and drown you in punches. When he's fresh, the offense is legit. Against Bolanos in June 2026, he sprinted across the cage at the opening bell and cracked a clean one-two, then opened a cut with combinations in round one. He hurt Bolanos again along the fence in round three with a boxing flurry. Against Bolaji Oki in his short-notice debut, he stumbled Oki with a right-left combo late in round one. The tools are there in bursts.

His three signature weapons:

• Explosive pressure starts. He opens fast and hard. See the round-one sprint-and-one-two against Bolanos, and the immediate cage-cutting rush against Luke Riley at UFC London where he pinned Riley to the fence early.
• Clinch dirty boxing. Against Riley he tied up along the cage and dug short shots and elbows, even threatening a guillotine in round three. Against Riley he also completed a single-leg (1/1) in the third.
• A durable chin and body attack. He landed 62% to the body against Riley (13/21) and ate Oki's round-three bomb that "would've dropped most fighters." His head is, per Riley, "a cinder block."

Technical evolution: honestly, there hasn't been much positive movement. He's lost three of his last four, dropping back-to-back for the first time as a pro. The same problems keep repeating.

Michael Aswell Jr.'s Technical Vulnerabilities

• Cardio collapse after fast starts. This is the big one. Against Bolanos, his explosive round one emptied the tank, and Bolanos took over the middle of the fight with his kicking game. His recent stats confirm the decline: a 33% recent win percentage and a negative recent significant striking impact differential (-4.6).
• He gets countered walking in. Riley timed the same right cross and left hook "on repeat" for three rounds, landing 100 significant strikes and snapping Aswell's head around in round one. Oki dropped off the centerline and fired the right hand at will. Aswell marches straight in and eats clean counters. His numbers back this up: he absorbs 4.18 head strikes per minute with a mediocre 51% striking defense.
• Low leg-kick defense. Bolanos peppered his lead leg all through round two and it wrecked his movement. Aswell absorbs 0.75 leg kicks per minute and rarely checks them (he landed zero leg strikes against Riley).

When his gameplan fails, Aswell doesn't adjust. He keeps marching forward, keeps trading, and eats damage. He tried grappling late against Riley and Oki, but too little, too late.

Warning: Aswell has lost three of his last four and is coming off consecutive decision losses. His head-hunting, low-defense style walking into a one-shot counter puncher is a red flag.

JooSang Yoo's Breakdown

Yoo, "Zombie Jr.," a Korean Zombie protege, is a sharp, patient counter-striker with fight-ending power in his left hook. His UFC debut against Jeka Saragih at UFC 316 was a 28-second masterclass: he backpedaled, let the aggressive Saragih chase, and dropped a short fade-out counter left hook flush on the chin. Saragih face-planted. It drew McGregor-over-Aldo comparisons for a reason.

His signature weapons:

• The counter left hook. His money punch. He reads forward-pressing aggression and intercepts it with backward movement, as Saragih found out in under 30 seconds. This is the exact punch that ends fights.
• Distance and timing control. He figures out opponent timing and controls range, drawing pressure fighters into his counter zone. His 68% overall striking accuracy and strong knockdown numbers show a finisher who lands the shots that matter.
• Leg kicks and feints. He lands 2.24 leg kicks per minute and layers in feints, hip twitches, and the occasional spinning heel kick to keep opponents guessing.

Technical evolution: the Santos loss in October 2025 exposed a mental flaw more than a technical one. He showboated, disrespected Santos, got sloppy, and got clapped with a left hook counter in round two. The lesson for Yoo is discipline, not mechanics.

JooSang Yoo's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Overconfidence and showboating. Against Daniel Santos he mocked his opponent, misread the rounds, and dropped his defense. He believed he was dominating when the fight was competitive, then got knocked out. If he clowns Aswell, Aswell's durable, high-volume style could make him pay.
• Low hands. He carries his hands at his waist. It worked against Saragih, but pressure-heavy volume strikers can exploit that guard. Aswell throws a ton (8 strikes landed per minute), so the volume is there to test it.
• Recent KO loss. Yoo was just knocked out cold in October. Coming off a fresh KO is always a flag for chin and confidence questions.

Warning: Yoo was recently KO'd (October 2025). A fighter coming off a knockout can be more vulnerable to the same, so Aswell's power (6-0 KO record) isn't nothing.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a classic pressure-fighter-versus-counter-striker chess match, and the styles favor Yoo badly.

• What Yoo does to Aswell: Aswell marches straight in behind combinations with a high chin and low defense. That is precisely the food Yoo's counter left hook feeds on. Saragih rushed forward and got starched. Aswell rushes forward too, just with less pop. Yoo's backward-moving counter, exactly the shot that ended Saragih, lines up perfectly with Aswell's predictable forward march that Riley timed all night.
• What Aswell does to Yoo: Aswell's best path is volume and pressure to exploit Yoo's low hands and expose his suspect discipline. If Yoo starts showboating like he did against Santos, Aswell's relentless output could steal rounds or catch him. Santos showed the blueprint: workmanlike pressure, keep throwing, mix in level changes.
• Historical parallel: The Saragih fight is the warning. An aggressive forward striker with power walked directly into Yoo's counter and got knocked out in 28 seconds. Aswell fits that mold, but with a tougher chin, so it may not be that fast.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: This is Aswell's most dangerous window and also his highest-risk one. He'll sprint forward as he did against Bolanos and Riley. But that's exactly when Yoo's counter left hook is most lethal. Expect Yoo to give ground, bait the rush, and look to time the hook.
• Mid-fight: If Aswell survives the opening exchanges, his cardio historically fades right here. Against Bolanos the leg kicks piled up and the pace dropped in round two. Yoo's leg kicks (2.24 per minute) would compound that fade fast.
• Late rounds: Aswell's durability keeps him upright, and he can rally as he did in round three against Bolanos. But rallying to lose is his pattern. If Yoo stays disciplined, he cruises. Yoo's only real danger is the Santos-style mental lapse.

Analysis and Key Points

• Aswell walks into counters. Riley timed the same shots for three rounds; Oki dipped and fired the right hand at will. Yoo is a purer one-shot counter puncher than either.
• Yoo's counter left hook ends nights. Saragih found the canvas in 28 seconds doing exactly what Aswell does: rushing forward.
• Aswell's cardio betrays him. Fast starts, mid-fight fade, late rallies that fall short. It happened against Bolanos and it's baked into his recent numbers.
• Both fought aggression differently. Santos beat Yoo with discipline and workrate. Aswell has the workrate but not the discipline or the defense to avoid the hook.
• The KO flags cut both ways. Yoo was just knocked out, but Aswell lacks knockout power at featherweight (recall his flat impact differential and the Oki fight where "his lack of knockout power left Oki unthreatened").

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Yoo at a score of 7, and the SHAP breakdown shows why:

• Odds pulled the score down by 10.0, the single biggest factor. Yoo is a sizeable -260 favorite, and the market strongly backs him.
• recent_win_perc pushed the score up by 3.0.
• recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage added 2.0.
• trueskill, striking_impact_differential, and recent_significant_striking_output_differential each nudged it up by 1.0.
• striking_defense_percentage knocked it down by 1.0.

The rest of the features had no meaningful impact. The takeaway: the odds and Yoo's striking edges drove this pick toward the Korean.

Past Model Performance

Mixed signals worth noting. WolfTicketsAI has predicted Aswell three times and went 2-1, but the most recent call was wrong: it picked Aswell to beat Bolanos at 0.71 and he lost. That's a caution flag on trusting Aswell's on-paper edges. On Yoo, the model has only one data point, correctly picking Santos to beat him. So the model has never correctly predicted a Yoo win, only his loss. Small sample, but the read on Aswell's flaws is well supported by his own fight history.

Conclusion

The styles tell the story. Aswell marches forward with a high chin, low defense, and a fading gas tank, and Yoo is a patient counter-puncher whose left hook flattens exactly that kind of fighter. Saragih showed what happens when you rush Yoo. Aswell's durability may keep him upright longer, but the path to a Yoo win is wide and clear. WolfTicketsAI backs JooSang Yoo, and the tape agrees.

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Analysis: Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy Diaz

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Ryan Gandra to Win

Score: 27
Odds:
Ryan Gandra: -525
Ozzy Diaz: +390

Ryan Gandra's Breakdown

Gandra is the definition of a fast-twitch finisher. Through two UFC bouts he has spent less than two minutes of total cage time and walked away with two first-round knockouts. This is a guy who studies tape like a film critic then closes the show like a wrecking ball.

Signature techniques:

• The looping left hook around the guard. This is his kill shot. At UFC 329 against Zach Reese, he stayed relaxed through the feeling-out phase, then jumped forward with a leaping left hook direct on the chin at roughly the one minute mark of Round 1. Reese dropped like a tree. Gandra had studied Reese's guard frame-by-frame and knew the gap was there.
• Forward pressure to cut the cage. Against Jose Daniel Medina at UFC Mexico City, he pressed forward from the opening bell, backed Medina to the fence within seconds, and never let him reset. He negates reach by closing distance immediately, which matters against the longer Diaz.
• Multi-level combination chains. The Medina finish was not a single shot. He strung together a lead right hook, a left over the top, a front kick to the body, then a knee up the middle before pinning Medina and folding him with a short left hook and right hand at 0:41 of Round 1. He mixes levels rather than headhunting.

Technical evolution: There is not much of a sample to track evolution, but both UFC wins show the same disciplined pattern: composed entry, explosive finish. His stat line of 12.41 significant strikes landed per minute and a 9.5 significant striking impact differential reflects a fighter who lands hard and often in the brief windows he fights.

Warning: Both his UFC finishes came inside two minutes against limited opposition. His durability, cardio, and grappling remain untested at this level. He holds brown belts in judo and jiu-jitsu, but has attempted zero takedowns in the UFC. If this fight leaves the first round, we are in uncharted water for Gandra.

Ryan Gandra's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Untested chin and cardio. Nobody has made Gandra fight past the two-minute mark in the UFC. If Diaz survives the early storm, we have no data on how Gandra performs in deep waters. His whole profile is built on early finishes.
• Defensive boxing unproven. Because he overwhelms opponents so fast, his head movement and defensive reactions have barely been tested. His 61.5 percent striking defense is decent but comes from tiny samples where he was the aggressor.
• Grappling is a black box. Zero takedowns attempted, zero defensive takedown situations of note. Despite the belts, if a fight turns into scrambles or clinch grappling, we simply do not know what he offers.

Ozzy Diaz's Breakdown

Diaz is a technical boxer with real heart, but he is trending the wrong way. He has lost 2 of his last 3 and dropped his most recent bout by KO/TKO. He is 1-2 in the Octagon.

Signature techniques:

• Crisp jab and one-two. Against Djorden Santos at UFC 313, his jab landed at will and he broke Santos down with clean one-twos across Rounds 2 and 3. He is the more polished pure boxer in most matchups.
• Body attack to break opponents. The decisive sequence against Santos was a well-placed knee to the body in Round 3, followed by a left to the liver and a right upstairs. When Diaz commits to the body, he wilts opponents.
• Patience and ring craft. He won the Santos fight essentially blind in one eye after a detached retina, relying on spatial awareness and measured jabbing. That tells you about his fundamentals and toughness.

Technical evolution: Diaz moved up to light heavyweight for the Zhang fight, then wisely dropped back to middleweight for Santos. The problem is his patient, read-and-react style keeps costing him early. He is the more experienced, more well-rounded striker but has not solved his slow-start problem.

Warning: Diaz was knocked out by Ateba Gautier in May 2026 and stopped by Zhang Mingyang inside Round 1 in November 2024. That is two KO losses in his last handful of fights. Against a one-shot finisher like Gandra, that chin history is a flashing red light.

Ozzy Diaz's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Slow starts get him killed. Against Zhang, he was hesitant early, opting to make reads while Zhang set a trap. At 2:25 of Round 1 Zhang pumped a jab, Diaz stepped in to counter, and ate a perfectly timed elbow that ended it. Gandra hunts exactly these early windows.
• Predictable counter-timing. Zhang read Diaz's counter entry and baited it clean. Gandra's leaping left hook thrives against opponents who step in to counter or hold position. That is a dangerous overlap.
• Recovery under fire is poor. Once Zhang dropped him, Diaz could only cover up and absorb ground-and-pound until the stoppage. If Gandra lands clean and swarms the way he did on Reese and Medina, Diaz has shown he does not recover well.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a classic pressure-finisher versus patient-counter-boxer clash, and the tape screams danger for Diaz.

Gandra's paths to exploit Diaz: Diaz's entire history of losses come from him being hesitant early and getting caught stepping in. Gandra's signature leaping left hook around the guard is tailor-made for a fighter who plants and counters. Zhang proved you can bait Diaz's counter step and land a fight-ender before the halfway point of Round 1. Gandra does not even need to bait it, he just walks Diaz down and detonates, exactly like he did to Reese.

Diaz's paths to trouble Gandra: Diaz has the reach edge at 79 inches to Gandra's 74, and the more refined boxing over three rounds. If he can use lateral movement, keep Gandra on the end of the jab, and drag this into Rounds 2 and 3, he tests territory Gandra has never seen. The Santos fight shows Diaz can grind and win when he survives early. His body attack could also sap Gandra's untested cardio.

Historical parallel: The Zhang fight is the blueprint. A pressure fighter with fight-ending power caught Diaz stepping into a counter early. Gandra brings the same profile with even more explosive entries.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: This is Gandra's kill zone. He comes forward immediately, and Diaz historically needs a full round to warm up. If Diaz freezes or steps in to counter the way he did against Zhang, this ends fast. Advantage Gandra, heavily.
• Mid-fight adjustments: If Diaz weathers the first round, the math shifts. He is the sharper technical boxer over distance and can start piling up jabs and body work the way he did against Santos in Rounds 2 and 3. This is the window where his experience matters.
• Championship rounds: Not applicable at three rounds, but late-fight cardio favors Diaz on paper since Gandra has never been there. The problem is getting there in one piece.

Analysis and Key Points

• Gandra's leaping left hook vs Diaz's counter step is the pivotal clash. Zhang exploited that exact tendency to finish Diaz inside a round. Gandra owns the same finishing tool.
• Diaz has two KO losses in his recent stretch, including the most recent fight. A one-punch finisher is the worst possible matchup for a fighter with fresh chin damage.
• Diaz is 1-2 in the UFC and lost 2 of his last 3. The downward trend is real.
• Gandra's cardio and grappling are total unknowns. Diaz's only realistic route to victory is surviving the first five minutes and dragging Gandra into deep water, the way he did to Santos.
• Reach favors Diaz at 79 inches to 74, one of the few statistical edges he holds, and the SHAP data reflects it slightly.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Gandra at a modest score of 27. Here is what moved the needle:

• Odds were the dominant factor, boosting the score by 24. The market has Gandra as a heavy -525 favorite.
• Significant striking impact differential added 3, reflecting Gandra's brutal 9.5 impact edge.
• Recent significant striking impact differential added 2 more, backing up the recent power.
• Striking defense percentage added 2.
• TrueSkill and recent significant striking output differential each added 1.
• Reach was the lone feature working against Gandra, shaving 1 off the score for Diaz's 79-inch span.

The relatively low final score of 27 tells you the model likes Gandra but is not blind to his tiny sample size and the reach disadvantage.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has no prior prediction history on Ryan Gandra, so there is no track record to lean on for him specifically. On Ozzy Diaz, the model has one prior call and nailed it, correctly picking Ateba Gautier to beat Diaz by KO/TKO with a 0.76 score. That is a small but perfect sample, and notably the model already saw Diaz get finished once. That prior correct read on a Diaz KO loss adds quiet confidence to picking against him again.

Conclusion

Everything points one direction. Gandra is an explosive first-round finisher walking into a fighter who starts slow, gets baited stepping in, and has been knocked out twice recently. The Zhang fight is the exact roadmap, and Gandra owns an even nastier version of that finish. Diaz's only hope is surviving the storm and dragging this into deep water, but his chin and slow starts make that a long shot. WolfTicketsAI sides with Ryan Gandra, and the tape agrees. Expect another early night for Problema.

Analysis: Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Edmen Shahbazyan to Win

Score: 8
Odds:
Edmen Shahbazyan: -165
Brunno Ferreira: +140

Edmen Shahbazyan's Breakdown

Shahbazyan is a boxing-first orthodox striker out of Glendale Fighting Club whose game runs through his jab and a nasty body kick. When he's on, he's a level-changing puzzle. Against Dylan Budka in February 2025 he showed the full sequence: feint the jab, dig the right straight to the body to fold the posture, then bring the right cross-left hook upstairs. Budka got dropped and finished in round one. That body-to-head chain is the cleanest version of what Shahbazyan does well.

His body kick is a genuine fight-ender. Against Andre Petroski he hurt him with body kicks in round one, then folded him with a "vicious" body kick in round three that nearly finished the fight. Against Dalcha Lungiambula in 2022 he chained a body kick into a right hand into a fight-ending knee. The kick is the through-line of his best wins, and it pairs perfectly with the jab he uses to measure range.

Signature techniques to watch: - Jab-to-body-straight-to-head-hook chain (Budka finish, round 1) - Body kick as a stopping weapon (Petroski rounds 1 and 3, Lungiambula round 2) - Head kick off the jab setup (Brad Tavares KO, round 1, 2019)

The technical evolution is real but partial. The Petroski fight was only the second decision of his career, and he showed patience, disciplined takedown defense, and the ability to bank rounds against one of the division's better grapplers. He stuffed Petroski's shots by pushing forward proactively rather than reacting. That's the improved Edmen. But the Brendan Allen loss in June 2026 is a giant red flag. Allen, the worse striker on paper, out-struck him by timing right hands over the jab while Shahbazyan stood static with no head movement and no angles.

Edmen Shahbazyan's Technical Vulnerabilities

• No head movement after the jab. This got exposed thoroughly against Brendan Allen, where Shahbazyan repeatedly ate right hands over the top because he jabbed and stood still. He does not roll off his own shots or create angles. Any fighter who times him on the return can land clean.
• Grappling defense from bottom and chin exposure in scrambles. Gerald Meerschaert submitted him in round 2 of 2024 after Shahbazyan overcommitted on a combination and got taken down. Anthony Hernandez did the same in 2023, chaining guillotine-to-back-take sequences that Shahbazyan couldn't read. He resets with his chin high after combinations, a habit noted since the Imavov TKO loss in 2021.
• Cardio and finishing instinct. His striking defense sits at roughly 43% and he absorbs 2.6 head strikes per minute. His output drops in later rounds, and even when he hurt Petroski he chose to wave him up rather than finish. Against elite pressure he fades.

Brunno Ferreira's Breakdown

Ferreira, "The Hulk," is an unorthodox switch-hitter with legit one-shot power and a deep judo and jiu-jitsu base. He loads single big shots off random stance switches, which creates timing confusion. His finish of Gregory Rodrigues in January 2023 came off a switch-stance left hand with the cage as an anchor. His knockout of Phil Hawes in January 2024 was pure pattern reading: he baited Hawes' duck and drove a knee into his chin, then followed the knee with a left when Hawes stayed upright.

His grappling is the underrated part of his game. He has back-to-back armbar wins over Armen Petrosyan and Jackson McVey. Against McVey he slammed him off the back and finished with a belly-down armbar in round one. That's world-class opportunism.

Signature techniques to watch: - Pattern-recognition knee off the duck (Hawes KO, round 1) - Switch-stance power left (Rodrigues KO, round 1, 2023) - Opportunistic armbar in scrambles (McVey and Petrosyan submissions)

The recent trend is ugly, though. Ferreira has dropped two straight. Ikram Aliskerov wrestled him for three rounds in June 2026, taking him down repeatedly and neutralizing his power behind reach. Before that, Gregory Rodrigues starched him in round one in the March 2026 rematch with a delayed "wrong way" right hand. His recent win percentage sits at 33%, and the losses expose the same holes.

Brunno Ferreira's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Defensively open when he loads power. Nursulton Ruziboev caught him with a straight counter down the pipe after a naked low kick, KO in 2023. Gregory Rodrigues dropped him with one shot in the rematch. Ferreira is "really easy to hit," accepts damage to land, and his chin has now failed twice.
• Naked kicks and predictable recovery. He throws kicks and single shots without setups, and he retreats linearly while stance-switching. Patient, rangy counter-strikers punish this. Ruziboev's finish is the template.
• Poor process against pressure and reach. Aliskerov exposed that Ferreira has no reliable way to create his own win conditions when he can't get into the pocket. He gets stuck at the wrong range and loses rounds. His striking output differential is deeply negative, meaning he tends to get outworked.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is orthodox Shahbazyan against Ferreira's random switch-hitting. The key question is range. Shahbazyan's jab and body kick let him fight at distance, exactly where Ferreira struggles. Aliskerov showed the blueprint: use length and straight shots to keep Ferreira from closing, and make him eat clean counters when he lurches in. Shahbazyan's jab-to-body-kick chain is tailor-made to punish Ferreira's linear retreats and naked entries. The same body kicks that folded Petroski and Lungiambula can dig into Ferreira, who absorbs plenty of body work.

The counter case is obvious and dangerous. Ferreira lands one big switch-stance left or times a knee off a level change, and Shahbazyan's chin has cracked before, most recently in the Allen loss where he ate clean rights all night. Shahbazyan resets with his chin high after combos, and that is the exact button Ferreira hunts. The Hawes knee and Rodrigues left are proof he ends nights in one beat.

Grappling adds a wrinkle. If Shahbazyan overcommits and Ferreira drags it down, the armbar threat is real, just as Meerschaert and Hernandez found Shahbazyan's bottom game lacking. But Ferreira has to get there first, and his own takedown game is crude and low-percentage.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Shahbazyan should own the opening frame if he stays disciplined behind the jab and body kick, the way he handled Petroski early. The danger window is if he plants his feet and trades, where Ferreira's single-shot power lives.
• Mid-fight: If Shahbazyan banks round one clean, Ferreira gets desperate, and desperation makes Ferreira lunge, exactly when he gets countered. But this is also where Shahbazyan historically fades and his defense slips, so a loading Ferreira left is live.
• Late: Neither man has elite championship cardio here. Shahbazyan coasts when ahead, and Ferreira has shown he can survive to decision but struggles to create offense late. Edge to the fighter banking rounds, which favors Shahbazyan if he stays on the outside.

Analysis and Key Points

• Range dictates everything. Shahbazyan's jab and body kick keep the fight where Ferreira loses. Aliskerov proved reach and straight shots neutralize The Hulk.
• Body kick is the winning weapon. It folded Petroski and Lungiambula and fits perfectly against a body-absorbing, forward-lunging Ferreira.
• Chin warning both ways. Shahbazyan got out-struck by Brendan Allen and has been KO'd by Hernandez and Imavov. Ferreira was just starched by Rodrigues. This can end in one shot for either man.
• Ferreira's downward trend. Two straight losses, 33% recent win rate, and the same defensive holes exposed every time he steps up.
• Grappling caution. Ferreira's armbar is real if Shahbazyan gets careless, echoing the Meerschaert submission loss.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Shahbazyan with a confidence score of 8, and the SHAP features tell you why:

• Odds pushed the score up by 6.0, the single biggest factor, reflecting Shahbazyan's role as the -165 favorite.
• TrueSkill added 2.0 toward Shahbazyan.
• Significant striking impact differential and recent significant striking impact differential each added 1.0, favoring Edmen's cleaner striking.
• Recent win percentage added 1.0, consistent with Shahbazyan winning 3 of his last 4 while Ferreira dropped 2 straight.
• Recent striking impact differential and significant striking output differential each added 1.0.
• Reach added 1.0, with Shahbazyan at 74 inches to Ferreira's 72.

The remaining features registered no meaningful change to the score.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong read on Shahbazyan, going correct on 7 of 8 tracked fights. The only miss was the Meerschaert submission, which is exactly the grappling scenario flagged as his live risk here. On Ferreira, the model is shakier, having been wrong three times, including calling against him in the Petrosyan and Vettori wins and picking Hawes over him. That inconsistency means Ferreira's chaos can beat the numbers, which is a caution worth noting. Still, the model correctly called both of Ferreira's recent losses to Rodrigues and Aliskerov.

Conclusion

Ferreira is a live dog with one-punch power and a nasty armbar, but he is on a two-fight skid, his defense leaks when he loads up, and he struggles badly against reach and outside striking. Shahbazyan has the jab, the fight-ending body kick, and the length to keep this where Ferreira drowns. Stay disciplined and Edmen banks rounds or lands the body-kick finish. Get careless and trade, and Ferreira can flatten him. WolfTicketsAI backs Edmen Shahbazyan, and the range and striking data back that call.

Analysis: Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Casey O'Neill to Win

Score: 18
Odds:
Casey O'Neill: -200
Eduarda Moura: +165

Casey O'Neill's Breakdown

"King" Casey O'Neill is back and looking like the finisher who went 9-0 to open her career. Her March 2026 return against Gabriella Fernandes was a statement. After a 19-month layoff from knee surgery, she needed just 3:11 to crack Fernandes with a counter left hook, then swarmed her against the fence with an endless combination for the Round 1 KO. That is the O'Neill blueprint: draw the committed single shot, punish it with the counter hook, then pour on volume once you smell blood.

Her signature weapons:

• Counter left hook off feints. Against Fernandes in Round 1, she baited the Brazilian into overcommitting, then landed the hook flush to start the finish. She reads offensive patterns well and times fighters who load up on power.
• Volume swarm finishing. When she hurts you, she does not let up. She pursued the retreating Fernandes without hesitation. Same story against Antonina Shevchenko at UFC Vegas 38, where she landed 102 strikes to 20 in Round 2 with "Donkey Kong style" hammer fists from mount for the TKO.
• Grappling and back-taking. She submitted BJJ black belt Lara Procopio with a rear-naked choke in Round 3 in 2021, trapping her in a rear crucifix before locking the body triangle. She owns a brown belt and chains striking into takedowns when healthy.

Her stats back the striking edge. She lands 7.89 significant strikes per minute with a Significant Striking Impact Differential of 25.25. She carries a three-inch reach advantage (69 vs 67) and a Recent Win Percentage that has climbed back after the KO win.

Technical evolution: the Fernandes fight showed more patience than the fighter who used to walk straight into counters. She returned to Thailand to rebuild with her original team, and the added feinting and counter timing suggests a sharper, more measured version.

Casey O'Neill's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Submission losses against grapplers. This is the glaring one. Ariane Lipski armbarred her at 1:18 of Round 2 at UFC 296 after dropping her with a right hand. Once hurt, O'Neill fought on "autopilot" and could not pivot to wrestling. Moura is a takedown machine who lives for exactly this scenario.
• Walking into counters when pressing. Jennifer Maia outboxed her over three rounds in March 2023, feeding her right hands and uppercuts every time she entered the pocket. O'Neill got flat-footed and predictable with her entries as the fight wore on.
• Recovery under fire. When she gets hurt early, her game falls apart. Both the Maia and Lipski losses show she struggles to reset mentally and go to a Plan B when the striking fails.

Eduarda Moura's Breakdown

Moura is a volume wrestler who piles up takedowns and grinds from top. She moved to flyweight in late 2024 and it suited her. Against Veronica Hardy at UFC 309, she used her size and reach to control the center, landed the right hand, and answered Hardy's kicks with counter rights before scoring takedowns to seal a unanimous decision. She followed that with a decision win over Lauren Murphy in July 2025.

Her signature weapons:

• High-volume takedowns. She attempts 10.7 takedowns per fight (12.6 recently). Against Montserrat Conejo Ruiz she chained a double-leg into a single-leg when the first was defended, then rode mount before taking the back for the rear-naked choke in Round 3.
• Mount control and wrist trapping. She traps hands against the mat and uses a knee-over-bicep grip break to free her hands. Patient, position-first grappling that wears opponents down.
• Counter right hand at range. She used her length and the right hand to keep Hardy on the back foot, punishing kick attempts on the counter.

Technical evolution: her clinch escapes have improved, using the hand-under-chin technique to break free and reset, as seen against Denise Gomes. She has also grown into her frame at 125.

Eduarda Moura's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Poor takedown defense. Her Takedown Defense Ratio sits at just 0.25 (0.55 recently but off a small sample). If O'Neill lands takedowns of her own or stuffs Moura's shots, the wrestling advantage flips.
• Low striking output and impact. Her Significant Striking Impact Differential is essentially flat (-0.2), and her Average Striking Output Differential is negative (-17.4). She does not hurt people. That means if this stays standing, O'Neill's 7.89 strikes per minute could bury her.
• Reset patterns leave openings. Against Denise Gomes in Round 4, she turned and moved straight back to reset, eating a clean counter that swung the fight. A counter puncher like O'Neill will time that.
• Coming off a loss. She dropped a unanimous decision to Wang Cong in February 2026 at catchweight. Not a KO, but momentum matters.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is striker-grappler chess. The fight lives and dies on whether Moura can drag O'Neill to the mat.

• O'Neill's counter hook vs Moura's entries. Moura shoots after establishing hand control and often resets straight backward. That is exactly the pattern O'Neill punished against Fernandes. If Moura level changes without disguising it, she risks eating the counter left hook that ended the Fernandes fight.
• Moura's takedown volume vs O'Neill's submission history. This is the danger. Lipski showed the template: hurt O'Neill, get her down, hunt the submission. Moura attempts double-digit takedowns per fight and finished Ruiz from the back. If O'Neill gets careless or hurt, Moura can replicate the Lipski armbar scenario.
• The striking gap. On the feet, this is lopsided. O'Neill outlands Moura by a wide margin and hits far harder. Moura's flat impact differential means she cannot discourage O'Neill's forward pressure the way a real power striker could. The Hardy fight showed Moura can win rounds with control, not damage.

The closest historical parallel is O'Neill's own win over Procopio, where she out-grappled a superior credentialed grappler through cardio and scrambles. If she brings that version, she neutralizes Moura's best path.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: O'Neill should own the center and land the sharper strikes, as she did against Fernandes and Shevchenko in the opening frames. Moura will look to close distance and shoot. Watch the first exchange after Moura's first takedown attempt, that tells you the story.
• Mid-fight: If Moura gets O'Neill down and grinds, the fight tilts. But O'Neill's scramble ability against Procopio and Shevchenko shows she can work back to her feet. If it stays standing, O'Neill's volume compounds and Moura fades on the feet.
• Late rounds: O'Neill has strong cardio historically, though her post-layoff durability over 15 minutes is untested since the Fernandes fight ended fast. Moura's own gas tank improved at flyweight, but her low output means she needs control time, not damage, to bank rounds.

Analysis and Key Points

• O'Neill's counter left hook is the fight-ender. She timed it perfectly on Fernandes, and Moura's predictable entries fit the pattern.
• Moura's 0.25 takedown defense is a red flag, but so is O'Neill's history of getting submitted once grounded and hurt (Lipski armbar, Round 2).
• The striking is lopsided in O'Neill's favor: 7.89 sig strikes per minute vs Moura's 2.63, with a 25.25 impact differential.
• Warning: O'Neill was submitted after being dropped by Lipski. If Moura can hurt her, the ground game becomes lethal. That said, Moura has no knockdowns on record and near-zero striking impact, so hurting O'Neill on the feet is unlikely.
• Warning: O'Neill's post-layoff cardio over a full fight is unproven, since the Fernandes bout lasted one round.
• Moura is coming off a loss to Wang Cong, while O'Neill is riding a violent finish.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on O'Neill with a modest score of 18, and the SHAP features tell you why it is confident but not overwhelming:

• Odds pushed the score up the most (+8), reflecting O'Neill as the -200 favorite.
• significant_striking_impact_differential added +6, her biggest technical edge, she hits harder and more often.
• recent_win_perc (+3) and striking_impact_differential (+3) reinforced her striking dominance.
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential (+2) and striking_defense_percentage (+2) added more.
• reach (+1), significant_striking_output_differential (+1), and recent_striking_impact_differential (+1) nudged it further.
• On the other side, trueskill (-1) and win_streak_diff (-1) pulled back, since Moura carried a higher recent win streak before the Wang Cong loss and O'Neill's rating carries uncertainty from the layoff.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight (-1) correctly flagged Moura's wrestling volume as a threat, along with small dips from recent significant striking output and defense.

The net picture: O'Neill's striking edge and favorite status carry the pick, but Moura's wrestling volume keeps the confidence low.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record on O'Neill. It correctly called her win over Fernandes (0.55) and the Modafferi split decision (0.19). But it whiffed on the Lipski and Maia losses, both times backing O'Neill and both times she lost. That is the caution: the model has historically overrated O'Neill against tough grapplers and counter strikers, and Moura is a grappler.

On Moura, the model is 2-2. It nailed her wins over Murphy (0.73) and correctly picked Wang Cong over her (0.77). But it missed on Hardy and Denise Gomes. The takeaway is that Moura's decision-heavy, grinding style produces close fights the model has struggled to call cleanly.

Given the model was wrong the last two times O'Neill faced a serious grappling or counter threat, treat this low score of 18 with appropriate caution.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI backs Casey O'Neill, and the striking numbers justify it. If this stays on the feet, O'Neill's volume and that counter left hook that flattened Fernandes should overwhelm a low-output Moura who cannot hurt her back. The live path for the upset is clear and it echoes the Lipski loss: if Moura gets O'Neill down and hunts a submission after hurting her, the armbar ghost returns. But with a lopsided striking edge, a reach advantage, and Moura's shaky 0.25 takedown defense, the pick is O'Neill by stoppage or clear decision.

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Analysis: Giga Chikadze vs Joanderson Brito

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Joanderson Brito to Win

Score: 23
Odds:
Giga Chikadze: +300
Joanderson Brito: -390

Giga Chikadze's Breakdown

Giga is a former GLORY kickboxer with one of the cleanest striking pedigrees in the featherweight division. His whole game runs off the "Giga Kick," a left body kick to the liver that he sets up by faking high to raise the guard. He folded Cub Swanson in 63 seconds with it at UFC Vegas 25, and he built his signature TKO of Edson Barboza in 2021 off the same body attack, capping it with a step-in knee to the midsection and right hands.

His three signature weapons: - The Giga Kick (left liver kick): Iced Swanson in Round 1 and painted Barboza's body over three rounds. Even in his December 2025 loss to Vallejos, he "painted Vallejos' midsection crimson" in Round 1 with these kicks. - Body-to-head kick combinations: Against Jamey Simmons in 2020, he stung the body then whipped a head kick up the middle for the Round 1 finish. Classic level-changing kickboxing. - Feints and distance management: He used feints and his 74-inch reach to strand Vallejos at range in Round 1 before things fell apart.

But here's the problem. Giga is 37, riding a three-fight skid, and just got knocked out cold for the first time in his career. He has lost four of his last five. The technical striking is still there for a round, but the durability question is now front and center.

Giga Chikadze's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Wrestling and cage takedown defense: This is the blueprint. David Onama took him down repeatedly in April 2025, ducking behind for a back body lock in Round 2 and hitting a trip on the lead leg along the fence. Calvin Kattar did the same in 2022, using constant takedown threats to run Giga ragged over five rounds. His takedown defense sits at a poor 45%.
• Pressure and cardio: Giga fades hard when walked down. Kattar's pressure emptied his gas tank by Round 1's end in 2022. Arnold Allen's corner told him to "throw two punches instead of one" and the added volume broke Giga's range defense. Emmers outlanded him 32-13 in Round 3 back in 2020 as Giga plodded.
• Chin and spinning attacks: Vallejos tracked him to the fence and dropped him with a spinning backfish in December 2025. At 37, the first KO loss of his career is a flashing red warning.

KO Warning: Giga was just knocked out cold two fights ago. Against a heavy-handed finisher like Brito, that can happen again.

Joanderson Brito's Breakdown

Brito is a physical, aggressive Brazilian who blends power striking with opportunistic grappling. He owns 15 finishes in 19 wins and has one of the nastiest counter-wrestling submission games in the division.

His three signature weapons: - Ninja choke off level changes: His calling card. He caught Jordan Leavitt in June 2026 by clubbing the throat with his wrist on the level change then snapping up the choke. He did the same to Jonathan Pearce in Round 2 back in 2023 when Pearce dropped his head chasing a takedown. - Calf kicks and pressure striking: Against Jack Shore in 2024, he threw calf kicks constantly along the fence, creating a dilemma where Shore couldn't check without eating combinations. That accumulation opened the cut that ended the fight. - Power wrestling and slams: Against Isaac Thomson in December 2025, he answered a takedown with a suplex, landed two massive slams, and racked up eight takedowns and nearly eight minutes of control time.

His recent evolution is telling. After decision losses to Sabatini and Gomis, Brito leaned fully into grappling against Thomson, grinding out a control-heavy decision rather than brawling. He has shown he can adapt his approach to win rounds.

Joanderson Brito's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Striking defense against counters: His striking defense is ugly at 25%. Thomson caught his kick and dropped him with a straight right in Round 1 of December 2025. Pat Sabatini and others have timed his committed kicks. Giga is exactly the kind of clean counter-striker who can punish this early.
• Gets taken down off his own kicks: Sabatini stepped in and took him down easily off body kicks in April 2025, doing it again in Round 2 and Round 3. He fought "like a meathead," in the analyst's words, walking into the grappling.
• Early-fight cardio front-running: Brito is most dangerous in the first four minutes. Against Lucas Alexander he got the job done early because "he does slow down through his fights." If he can't finish, his output can dip.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a classic striker versus grappler puzzle, but the roles are muddier than they look.

Giga's path to victory is his kicking clinic. If he can keep Brito at range and land the liver kick and body-head combos, he can hurt him. Brito's 25% striking defense and his habit of getting dropped (Thomson, Round 1) mean Giga's counters are live early. Giga is orthodox and so is Brito, so the liver kick sits on the open side, which is exactly where Giga wants it, unlike his neutered performance against southpaw Caceres.

But Brito's path is the same blueprint Onama and Kattar already ran successfully. Brito times takedowns off kicks, and Giga throws a ton of kicks. That is a dangerous collision. When Giga commits to that Giga Kick, Brito can step in and dump him, or worse, snap up the ninja choke as Giga scrambles. Giga's 45% takedown defense against a fighter attempting 4.6 takedowns per fight is a brutal mismatch.

The Sabatini fight is the template. Sabatini refused to strike, timed the kicks, and ground Brito out. Here the roles flip. Brito plays the Sabatini role against Giga, timing the kicks and dragging the fight to the mat where Giga has drowned before.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: This is Giga's best and only real window. Brito comes out hot but hittable. Giga can catch him clean the way Vallejos and Thomson did, and if his chin holds, he could hurt Brito. Watch for Giga's liver kick early.
• Mid-fight adjustments: This is where it turns. Brito will start timing the kicks for takedowns just like Sabatini and Onama did. Once Giga is on the mat or pinned to the fence, his cardio bleeds out fast, exactly as it did against Kattar and Allen. The ninja choke threat looms every time Giga tries to stand.
• Late rounds: Advantage Brito heavily. Giga has never solved the grind. Brito's eight-takedown, near eight-minute control performance against Thomson shows he can smother for 15 minutes. A tired 37-year-old Giga against that pressure is a bad picture.

Analysis and Key Points

• Brito's ninja choke feeds on scrambles. Every time Giga slips a kick and hits the mat, like he did against Kattar and Onama, the choke is right there. Pearce learned this the hard way in Round 2.
• Giga gets taken down off kicks, Brito takes people down off kicks. The one thing Giga leans on is the exact thing Brito hunts. That is a technical trap.
• Giga's chin is now a question. The Vallejos KO was the first of his career, and Brito hits hard, having iced Andre Fili with an overhand in Round 1.
• Brito's own striking defense is a live opening for Giga early. If Giga lands the liver kick clean before the grappling starts, he has a puncher's window.
• Cardio favors Brito. Giga fades, Brito grinds. Over three rounds, that math points one way.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Brito but the score of 23 shows real hesitation. Here's what moved the needle:

• Odds decreased the score by 17. This is the big one. Brito is a heavy -390 favorite, and the market strongly backs him.
• striking_defense_percentage increased the score by 3, nudging toward Giga, reflecting his far superior defensive striking numbers.
• recent_win_perc decreased the score by 3, hurting Giga given his recent skid.
• trueskill decreased the score by 2, and recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight decreased it by 1, both nods to Giga on paper even as the overall pick stays with Brito.
• win_streak_diff, reach, and recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage each added 1, minor bumps tied to Giga's length and defense.

The net picture: the odds and Brito's grappling profile carry the pick, while Giga's striking metrics keep the score low and cautious.

Past Model Performance

The model has a mixed but instructive record here. On Giga, WolfTicketsAI correctly called his last three losses (Vallejos, Onama, Allen) and his Caceres win, missing only the 2022 Kattar fight where it had Giga at 0.30. So it has read Giga's decline accurately and repeatedly.

On Brito, the record is bumpier. The model wrongly picked Leavitt (Brito subbed him), wrongly picked against Brito versus Sabatini and Gomis, and wrongly had Jack Shore over Brito. It has been fooled by Brito's grappling and finishing ability before. That is a caution flag worth respecting, even though the underlying logic here, Giga's takedown defense collapse, is sound and well documented.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI takes Joanderson Brito, and the tape backs it. Giga Chikadze can still kick clean for a round, but his blueprint for defeat is written in bold: pressure him, time the kicks, take him down, and drown him. Onama and Kattar already proved it, Sabatini proved Brito thrives against strikers who walk into wrestling, and a 37-year-old Giga coming off a brutal knockout is the wrong man to solve it now. Expect Brito to weather early kicks, drag this to the mat, and either grind out the decision or snap up a ninja choke off a scramble. The pick is Brito.