UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez

Analysis: Rose Namajunas vs Tracy Cortez

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Rose Namajunas to Win

Score: 0 Odds: Rose Namajunas: -245 Tracy Cortez: 186

Rose Namajunas's Breakdown

Rose Namajunas, the former UFC Women's Strawweight champion, brings a wealth of experience and technical prowess to this flyweight bout. Her striking arsenal is diverse and effective, with a notable head strike output of 2.66 per minute. Namajunas's style is characterized by forward movement with jabs and high kicks, creative angles, and a variety of kicks including axe kicks, front kicks, and roundhouse kicks.

Namajunas's footwork and distance management were key factors in her recent victory over Amanda Ribas, showcasing her ability to adapt and overcome adversity. Her grappling skills shouldn't be overlooked either, boasting a takedown accuracy of 47.62% and a submission rate of 0.48 per fight. She often employs grappling and submission attempts when closing the distance.

Tracy Cortez's Breakdown

Tracy Cortez, while less experienced in the UFC, has shown remarkable promise with a strong wrestling background. Her striking accuracy stands out at 53.15% for significant strikes, complemented by a strong takedown game averaging 2 per fight. Cortez's style revolves around relentless pressure, pace control, and using her wrestling to dictate fights.

In her last outing against Jasmine Jasudavicius, Cortez demonstrated her well-rounded skillset. Her ability to mix striking combinations to set up grappling exchanges has been a consistent theme in her UFC career. Cortez also possesses submission skills off her back, including arm bars and triangles.

Analysis and Key Points

• Weight Class Shift: This bout marks Namajunas's third fight at flyweight, a potential factor in her performance.
• Short Notice: Cortez took this fight on short notice, replacing Maycee Barber, which could impact her preparation and cardio.
• Striking Dynamics: Namajunas's technical striking and footwork could pose problems for Cortez's forward pressure.
• Grappling Battle: Cortez's wrestling-based style could disrupt Namajunas's striking rhythm if she can close the distance.
• Fight Duration: As a five-round main event at elevation, cardio could be a crucial factor, potentially favoring Namajunas who trains in Colorado.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The significant difference in odds heavily favors Namajunas, indicating strong confidence from bookmakers.
• Recent Win Percentage: Cortez's perfect recent record contrasts with Namajunas's mixed results, potentially influencing the prediction.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Namajunas's slight edge here suggests her strikes may be more effective.
• Win Streak Difference: Cortez's current streak versus Namajunas's inconsistent recent record is a factor to consider.
• Recent Average Striking Output Differential: Namajunas shows a slight advantage, indicating potentially higher activity in recent fights.

Past Model Performance

For Rose Namajunas: - Correctly predicted her win against Amanda Ribas (score: 0.53) - Correctly predicted her loss to Manon Fiorot (score: 0.80 for Fiorot) - Incorrectly predicted her to win against Carla Esparza (score: 0.76)

For Tracy Cortez: - Correctly predicted her wins against Jasmine Jasudavicius and Melissa Gatto (both with a score of 0.69)

The model has shown mixed results for Namajunas, with a notable miss in the Esparza fight. For Cortez, the model has been accurate but with a limited sample size. This suggests some caution in interpreting the current prediction, especially given Namajunas's recent inconsistency and Cortez's perfect UFC record.

Conclusion

While WolfTicketsAI favors Rose Namajunas, this flyweight bout presents intriguing stylistic challenges for both fighters. Namajunas's experience, technical striking, and proven ability to perform at the highest level give her an edge. Her footwork and ability to slip punches could allow her to avoid Cortez's takedown attempts and land effective counter strikes.

However, Cortez's perfect UFC record, relentless pressure, and strong wrestling background can't be overlooked. If she can close the distance and secure takedowns, she may be able to neutralize Namajunas's striking advantage and control the fight on the ground.

The fight's duration and elevation could play crucial roles, potentially favoring Namajunas due to her Colorado training. For Cortez, this fight represents a significant opportunity to face a former champion and potentially break into the top 10 rankings, which could provide extra motivation.

Bettors should approach this prediction with caution, considering Namajunas's recent inconsistency in the new weight class and the potential for Cortez to continue her upward trajectory. The outcome will likely hinge on who can impose their preferred fighting style and adapt to the challenges presented by their opponent.

Analysis: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Muslim Salikhov

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Santiago Ponzinibbio to Win

Score: 13 Odds: Santiago Ponzinibbio: -200 Muslim Salikhov: 165

Santiago Ponzinibbio's Breakdown

The "Argentine Dagger" brings a well-rounded striking game honed through years of kickboxing experience. Ponzinibbio's high-volume approach, landing 4.90 significant strikes per minute, forms the cornerstone of his strategy. His diverse arsenal includes powerful combinations, leg kicks, and the ability to fight effectively at various ranges.

In his recent bout against Kevin Holland, Ponzinibbio's aggression backfired, leading to a knockout loss. However, his third-round TKO victory over Alex Morono in December 2022 demonstrated his enduring power and technical skills. At 37, Ponzinibbio still possesses the tools to compete at the highest level, though consistency has been an issue lately.

Muslim Salikhov's Breakdown

"The King of Kung Fu" brings a unique flavor to the Octagon with his Sanda background. Salikhov's striking repertoire is filled with spectacular spinning techniques, including wheel kicks and back kicks, which have produced highlight-reel knockouts. His Sanda experience also translates to a strong clinch game and the ability to mix in takedowns, adding layers to his offensive arsenal.

Salikhov's recent outings have been challenging, with back-to-back losses including a first-round knockout to Randy Brown in February 2024. Despite these setbacks, his dangerous striking was evident in his spinning wheel kick knockout of Andre Fialho, showcasing his ability to end fights in spectacular fashion.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Styles: Ponzinibbio's high-volume, conventional MMA striking contrasts with Salikhov's flashier, unorthodox techniques.
• Recent Form: Both fighters are looking to rebound - Ponzinibbio has lost three of his last four, while Salikhov has dropped his last two.
• Age Factor: At 37 and 40 respectively, Ponzinibbio and Salikhov are in the latter stages of their careers, potentially impacting their performance.
• Striking Volume: Ponzinibbio's higher output could be crucial in outworking Salikhov.
• Defensive Skills: Ponzinibbio's takedown defense (61%) could be key in keeping the fight standing.
• Fight-Ending Power: Both possess knockout power, with Salikhov's spinning attacks adding an element of unpredictability.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The betting market strongly favors Ponzinibbio, significantly influencing the model's prediction.
• Recent Win Percentage: Ponzinibbio's slightly better recent record contributes to the favorable prediction.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Ponzinibbio's edge suggests he lands the harder, more impactful strikes.
• TrueSkill: Ponzinibbio's higher rating indicates a perceived higher skill level based on past performances.
• Striking Defense: Ponzinibbio's superior defense could be crucial in a striking-heavy matchup.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has shown inconsistency in predicting both fighters' recent bouts, correctly calling Ponzinibbio's win over Morono but missing on his loss to Holland. The model has struggled with Salikhov's last three fights, adding uncertainty to the current prediction.

Conclusion

This welterweight clash at UFC Denver on July 13, 2024, promises to be a compelling striker's duel. WolfTicketsAI favors Ponzinibbio, likely due to his higher volume striking and more consistent MMA approach. However, Salikhov's unique striking style and potential for spectacular finishes make him a dangerous underdog.

Ponzinibbio's path to victory likely involves pressuring Salikhov, denying him space to set up spinning attacks, and overwhelming him with combinations. Conversely, Salikhov will aim to maintain distance, utilize his kicking game, and look for openings to land fight-ending strikes.

Given both fighters' recent struggles and advancing age, this bout could be a crossroads moment. A win would keep them relevant in the competitive welterweight division, while a loss might raise questions about their future at the elite level. Despite the model's confidence in Ponzinibbio, the unpredictable nature of both fighters' recent performances suggests caution for bettors.

Analysis: Drew Dober vs Jean Silva

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jean Silva to Win

Score: 1 Odds: Drew Dober: -113 Jean Silva: -113

Drew Dober's Breakdown

Drew Dober, a seasoned UFC lightweight with 20 fights in the promotion, brings a wealth of experience to the octagon. At 35 years old, Dober has proven himself as a formidable striker with knockout power, boasting 10 of his 26 professional wins by KO. His recent performances have been a mixed bag, alternating between impressive finishes and tough losses.

Dober's striking is his bread and butter, known for his powerful left hand and devastating body shots. He maintains a high-pressure style, averaging an impressive 5.71 significant strikes landed per minute. In his recent win against Ricky Glenn, Dober showcased his ability to end fights quickly, securing a first-round KO. However, his tendency to engage in firefights has sometimes backfired, as seen in his loss to Matt Frevola.

Defensively, Dober has shown vulnerabilities. His striking defense percentage of 43.16% indicates he's hittable, which could be a significant factor against a sharp striker like Silva. However, his solid takedown defense (73%) could prove crucial if Silva attempts to mix in grappling.

Jean Silva's Breakdown

Jean Silva, though relatively new to the UFC, has made an immediate impact. With a professional record of 13-2, Silva has demonstrated exceptional striking skills and finishing ability in his two UFC appearances, including an impressive second-round knockout victory over Charles Jourdain at UFC 303 just two weeks prior to this scheduled bout.

Silva's UFC debut against Westin Wilson was nothing short of spectacular, ending in a first-round KO. What stands out about Silva is his striking efficiency and precision. With a significant striking accuracy of 64.84% and a striking defense percentage of 58.54%, he's shown to be both offensively potent and defensively sound. In his UFC career so far, Silva has landed 146 significant strikes out of 269 attempted, showcasing his ability to find openings in his opponents' defense.

Silva's penchant for quick finishes is noteworthy, with 9 of his wins ending in the first round. This finishing ability, combined with his recent success, gives him significant momentum coming into this fight.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Efficiency: Silva's striking accuracy (64.84%) significantly outclasses Dober's (40.32%), potentially leading to a more effective offense.
• Defensive Vulnerabilities: Dober's lower striking defense (43.16%) compared to Silva's (58.54%) could be a crucial factor.
• Experience vs. Momentum: Dober's extensive UFC experience contrasts with Silva's limited but impressive UFC showings and recent victory.
• Power Punching: Both fighters have demonstrated knockout power, with Silva showing a higher knockdown rate per fight.
• Weight Class Adjustment: Silva is moving up from featherweight, which could affect his power and endurance, but may also benefit him by avoiding a difficult weight cut.
• Quick Turnaround: Silva is fighting again just 14 days after his last bout, which could either maintain his rhythm or impact his recovery.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The even odds suggest a close fight, but the model slightly favors Silva.
• Recent Win Percentage: Dober's lower recent win percentage (33%) compared to Silva's (67%) has influenced the prediction.
• Striking Defense: Silva's superior striking defense percentage gives him an edge.
• TrueSkill: Despite Dober's higher TrueSkill rating, other factors outweigh this in the model's prediction.
• Recent Striking Impact: Silva's recent performances show a higher striking impact differential, suggesting more effective striking.
• Win Streak: Silva's current win streak compared to Dober's alternating results favors the prediction.

Past Model Performance

For Drew Dober: - The model has correctly predicted 4 out of 6 of Dober's recent fights, showing good accuracy. - It correctly predicted Dober's losses to Renato Moicano and Matt Frevola, as well as his wins against Ricky Glenn and Rafael Alves. - The model incorrectly predicted Dober's loss to Bobby Green, which Dober won by KO/TKO.

For Jean Silva: - The model has only one previous prediction for Silva, which was correct. - It accurately predicted Silva's win over Charles Jourdain.

The model's performance suggests a decent level of reliability for Dober's fights. However, the limited data for Silva introduces some uncertainty. While the prediction favors Silva, the lack of extensive UFC data for him should be considered when evaluating the confidence in this prediction.

Conclusion

The matchup between Drew Dober and Jean Silva promises to be an explosive striking affair. Dober brings veteran experience and proven knockout power, while Silva's precision striking, defensive skills, and recent momentum give him a slight edge according to the WolfTicketsAI model. Silva's perfect UFC record and impressive finishes suggest he could be a rising star, but Dober's experience and toughness make him a dangerous opponent.

The outcome may hinge on who can impose their game plan early and capitalize on the other's vulnerabilities. Silva's ability to manage Dober's pressure and use his movement will be crucial, while Dober will look to leverage his experience in longer fights. Fans should expect a high-paced, stand-up battle with potential for a spectacular finish from either fighter, making this a must-watch bout for MMA enthusiasts.

Analysis: Gabriel Bonfim vs Ange Loosa

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Gabriel Bonfim to Win

Score: 20 Odds: Gabriel Bonfim: -400 Ange Loosa: 300

Gabriel Bonfim's Breakdown

Gabriel Bonfim, a 26-year-old Brazilian prospect, enters this bout with a 15-1 record. His UFC career has been a rollercoaster, with two submission victories followed by a recent KO loss to Nicolas Dalby. Bonfim's grappling prowess is evident, boasting 3.88 submissions per fight and a perfect takedown defense ratio. His striking game is developing, landing 4.87 significant strikes per minute with a 40% accuracy and 59% striking defense. Bonfim's ability to control the fight on the ground has been his key to victory, utilizing his black belt Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background to secure dominant positions and finish fights. An impressive 12 of his 15 wins have come by submission, showcasing his exceptional grappling skills.

Ange Loosa's Breakdown

Ange Loosa, a 30-year-old fighter from the Democratic Republic of Congo, brings a 10-3 record with 1 no contest to this matchup. Training out of Kill Cliff FC, Loosa is known for his well-rounded skill set and durability. His recent UFC performances have been solid, with two unanimous decision victories sandwiching a loss to Mounir Lazzez. Loosa's striking output is impressive, landing 6.62 significant strikes per minute with a 49.56% accuracy. He's also shown decent takedown ability, averaging 2.35 takedowns per fight with a 47% accuracy. Loosa's striking defense is slightly better than Bonfim's, suggesting he might have an edge in stand-up exchanges. His last fight against Bryan Battle in May 2024 ended in a controversial no contest due to an accidental eye poke, which may have added fuel to his motivation for this bout.

Analysis and Key Points

• Grappling Advantage: Bonfim's submission skills and takedown defense give him a clear edge on the ground. His guillotine choke, used to finish both Trevin Giles and Mounir Lazzez in the UFC, is a technique to watch for.
• Striking Volume: Loosa lands more strikes per minute, but Bonfim's recent improvement in this area could narrow the gap.
• Recent Performance: Bonfim's recent KO loss raises questions about his chin and striking defense, while Loosa has shown consistency in decision wins.
• Finishing Ability: Bonfim has demonstrated more finishing power, particularly with submissions.
• Experience: Loosa has faced tougher competition in the UFC, which could play a factor in this matchup.
• Reach: Loosa has a slight reach advantage (74" vs 72.5"), which could be significant if he manages to keep the fight standing.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The significant -400 odds for Bonfim heavily influenced the model's prediction, suggesting bookmakers see him as a clear favorite.
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Bonfim's recent improvement in striking effectiveness has boosted the model's confidence in his ability to control the fight on the feet.
• Recent Win Percentage: Despite his recent loss, Bonfim's overall win percentage remains high, contributing to the positive prediction.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Bonfim's ability to land impactful strikes while avoiding damage has been noted by the model.
• TrueSkill: Interestingly, Loosa's TrueSkill rating slightly favors him, but other factors outweigh this in the overall prediction.

Past Model Performance

For Gabriel Bonfim, WolfTickets has a mixed record: - Correctly predicted his win against Trevin Giles (submission in round 1) - Incorrectly predicted his win against Nicolas Dalby (lost by KO/TKO in round 2)

For Ange Loosa, WolfTickets has also shown mixed results: - Correctly predicted his win against Rhys McKee - Incorrectly predicted his loss against AJ Fletcher - Incorrectly predicted the outcome of his fight against Bryan Battle (which ended in a No Contest)

The model's inconsistent performance for both fighters adds an element of uncertainty to this prediction. While it favors Bonfim, the past inaccuracies suggest caution in relying too heavily on this prediction for betting purposes.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts Gabriel Bonfim to emerge victorious in this welterweight clash. Bonfim's exceptional grappling expertise and improving striking game make him a formidable opponent. However, his recent KO loss raises concerns about his durability and striking defense. Loosa's consistent performance, higher striking output, and slight reach advantage could pose problems if he can keep the fight standing. The prediction leans towards Bonfim, but given the model's mixed past performance and Loosa's recent consistency, this bout could be closer than the odds suggest. Bonfim's path to victory likely involves taking the fight to the ground and utilizing his submission skills, while Loosa's best chance is to exploit his striking advantage, maintain distance, and test Bonfim's chin. The contrasting styles and recent events surrounding both fighters add layers of intrigue to this bout, making it a compelling matchup in the welterweight division.

Analysis: Julian Erosa vs Christian Rodriguez

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Christian Rodriguez to Win

Score: 15 Odds: Julian Erosa: +175 Christian Rodriguez: -215

Julian Erosa's Breakdown

Julian "Juicy J" Erosa, standing at 6'1", brings a wealth of experience with 29 wins and 12 losses. His aggressive fighting style and finishing ability make him a constant threat. Erosa's recent performances have been mixed, showcasing both resilience and vulnerabilities. His submission victory over Ricardo Ramos highlights his ground game prowess, but KO/TKO losses to Fernando Padilla and Alex Caceres raise questions about his chin.

Erosa's striking output is impressive, landing 7.42 strikes per minute with 53% accuracy. His ability to mix up attacks is notable, with a good distribution of head, body, and leg strikes. However, absorbing 4.59 head strikes per minute is concerning given recent KO losses.

Erosa's experience in Denver's high altitude could be advantageous, as he claims it doesn't affect him significantly. His 3-inch reach advantage could be crucial in controlling distance against the shorter Rodriguez.

Christian Rodriguez's Breakdown

Christian "CeeRod" Rodriguez, at 5'7", boasts an impressive 11-1 record despite fewer UFC appearances. His four-fight winning streak in the UFC demonstrates his rapid improvement and adaptability. Rodriguez's freestyle approach and grappling skills are standout features, with 4 of his 11 wins coming by submission.

Rodriguez's striking defense is superior to Erosa's, absorbing only 1.17 head strikes per minute. His takedown game is noteworthy, averaging 1.4 takedowns per fight with 54.55% accuracy. Recent improvements in striking, particularly his head kicks, add another dimension to his offense.

Rodriguez's move up to featherweight after weight-cutting issues at bantamweight introduces an element of unpredictability. This weight class change could impact his performance positively or negatively.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Dynamics: Erosa's height and reach advantage versus Rodriguez's improved head kicks and defensive prowess.
• Grappling Chess Match: Rodriguez's submission threat against Erosa's takedown defense and own ground game.
• Cardio and Pace: Both fighters can go the distance, but Erosa's experience in longer fights could be crucial.
• Altitude Factor: Denver's high altitude may favor Erosa due to his previous experience there.
• Momentum vs Experience: Rodriguez's winning streak contrasts with Erosa's mixed recent results.
• Controversial Wins: Erosa's public questioning of Rodriguez's recent victories adds an intriguing psychological element.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The betting odds heavily favor Rodriguez, significantly influencing the model's prediction.
• Recent Win Percentage: Erosa's lower recent win rate (33%) compared to Rodriguez's perfect 100% in the UFC impacts the prediction.
• TrueSkill: Rodriguez's slightly higher TrueSkill rating suggests a marginal edge in overall ability.
• Striking Differentials: Rodriguez's superior recent significant striking impact differential indicates better effectiveness in exchanges.
• Reach: Erosa's 3-inch reach advantage could be a factor, but hasn't swayed the prediction significantly.
• Takedown Attempts: Rodriguez's higher rate of recent takedown attempts could play into his gameplan.

Past Model Performance

For Julian Erosa: - The model has been inconsistent in predicting Erosa's fights, correctly calling his win against Steven Peterson but missing on his victories over Ricardo Ramos and Hakeem Dawodu.

For Christian Rodriguez: - The model correctly predicted Rodriguez's win against Cameron Saaiman but missed on his victories over Isaac Dulgarian and Raul Rosas Jr. - This mixed performance adds a degree of uncertainty to the current prediction.

Conclusion

The prediction favors Christian Rodriguez, driven by his recent success, superior defensive stats, and betting odds. However, Erosa's experience, reach advantage, and altitude acclimation can't be overlooked. The contrasting styles - Erosa's striking-heavy approach versus Rodriguez's grappling prowess - set the stage for a dynamic encounter. Rodriguez's move up in weight class and Erosa's questioning of his recent wins add intriguing subplots. While the model leans towards Rodriguez, the inconsistent past performance for both fighters and the multitude of factors at play suggest this could be a closer, more unpredictable fight than the prediction indicates. Bettors should approach with caution, considering Erosa's upset potential and the various X-factors at play in this compelling matchup.

Analysis: Abdul Razak Alhassan vs Cody Brundage

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Abdul Razak Alhassan to Win

Score: 1 Odds: Abdul Razak Alhassan: -150 Cody Brundage: 125

Abdul Razak Alhassan's Breakdown

Abdul Razak Alhassan, the Ghanaian powerhouse, brings a lethal combination of judo and devastating striking to the Octagon. With a black belt in judo and a knockout rate of 1.44 per fight, Alhassan's hands carry fight-ending potential every time he engages. His recent performance against Claudio Ribeiro in January 2023 showcased this power, securing a KO/TKO victory and reaffirming his status as a dangerous striker.

Alhassan's UFC career has been a rollercoaster, going 6-5 in the promotion. His explosive style often leads to early finishes, with all of his UFC wins coming via first-round knockout. However, this reliance on quick finishes has also been a double-edged sword, as he tends to slow down in later rounds if unable to secure an early stoppage.

Despite his impressive striking accuracy of 51.99%, Alhassan's defense remains a concern. Absorbing 2.43 head strikes per minute exposes vulnerabilities that skilled opponents can exploit, as seen in his submission loss to Joe Pyfer.

Cody Brundage's Breakdown

Standing at 6'0" and weighing 186 lbs, Cody Brundage enters this matchup as the underdog with a more well-rounded skill set. His wrestling background forms the foundation of his fighting style, averaging 2.18 takedowns per fight with a 56.25% accuracy. This grappling prowess could be a key factor against a primarily striking-based opponent like Alhassan.

Brundage has shown the ability to finish fights both on the feet and on the ground. His recent KO/TKO victory over Zach Reese demonstrated his improving striking game, while his submission win against Dalcha Lungiambula highlighted his grappling skills. However, Brundage's striking defense percentage of 32.91% raises concerns about his ability to avoid Alhassan's power shots.

Analysis and Key Points

• Explosive Power vs. Wrestling: Alhassan's knockout power contrasts sharply with Brundage's wrestling-based approach.
• Early Dominance: Alhassan's tendency for first-round finishes means the opening minutes will be critical.
• Cardio Factor: If Brundage can weather the early storm, Alhassan's history of slowing down could shift the momentum.
• Clinch Dynamics: Alhassan's judo background could make the clinch a battleground, with potential for throws or Brundage's takedown attempts.
• Ground Game: If taken down, Alhassan's explosive power could still pose threats from bottom positions.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds Impact: The betting odds heavily favor Alhassan, significantly influencing the model's prediction.
• TrueSkill Gap: Brundage's lower TrueSkill rating suggests less consistency compared to Alhassan.
• Striking Impact: Alhassan's recent performances show higher impact in significant strikes, likely due to his knockout power.
• Recent Form: Brundage's higher recent win percentage indicates better form in recent fights, despite the model's prediction.
• Defense Disparity: Alhassan's superior striking defense percentage (47.93% vs 32.91%) could be crucial in stand-up exchanges.

Past Model Performance

The model has shown accuracy in predicting Alhassan's recent losses but has a mixed record with Brundage's fights. This inconsistency in predicting Brundage's performances adds an element of uncertainty to the current prediction.

Conclusion

The clash between Abdul Razak Alhassan and Cody Brundage sets the stage for a classic striker vs. grappler showdown. Alhassan's explosive knockout power and judo background make him a constant threat, especially in the early rounds. However, Brundage's wrestling skills and more well-rounded approach provide multiple paths to victory.

The key for Alhassan will be to maintain distance, utilize his judo in the clinch, and look for the early finish. Brundage, on the other hand, must weather the initial onslaught, mix in takedowns, and potentially push the fight into later rounds where Alhassan has shown vulnerability.

While the model favors Alhassan, Brundage's improving skillset and the stylistic matchup suggest this fight could be closer than the odds indicate. The outcome will likely hinge on who can impose their game plan early and adapt as the fight progresses, making this an unpredictable and potentially thrilling middleweight bout.

Analysis: Joshua Van vs Charles Johnson

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Joshua Van to Win

Score: 15 Odds: Joshua Van: -215 Charles Johnson: 175

Joshua Van's Breakdown

Joshua "The Fearless" Van, a 22-year-old rising prospect, enters this flyweight bout with an impressive 10-1 record (3-0 in the UFC). Van's striking prowess is evident in his high output, landing a staggering 9.08 significant strikes per minute with 53% accuracy. His crisp boxing skills and preference for pressure fighting have been key to his success.

In his last fight against Felipe Bunes, Van demonstrated his finishing ability with a KO/TKO victory, showcasing the power that complements his volume-based approach. His split decision win over Zhalgas Zhumagulov also highlights his ability to edge out tough competitors in close contests.

Van's style revolves around pushing the pace and overwhelming opponents with volume, while also displaying the ability to counter when needed. However, he's faced multiple fight cancellations this year, which could potentially lead to ring rust or heightened motivation to perform.

Charles Johnson's Breakdown

Charles "InnerG" Johnson, a 33-year-old UFC veteran, brings a wealth of experience with a 15-6 record. His well-rounded skill set, rooted in Muay Thai and Jiu-Jitsu, makes him a versatile opponent. Standing at 5'9", Johnson likely has a reach advantage over Van, which could be crucial in this striking-heavy matchup.

Johnson's recent performances have shown improvement, currently riding a two-fight win streak with victories over Jake Hadley and Azat Maksum. His striking defense is noteworthy, with a 59.91% significant striking defense percentage. Johnson's willingness to mix in takedowns and grappling could be a key factor if he struggles with Van's pressure on the feet.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Dynamics: Van's high-volume boxing approach (9.08 significant strikes per minute) could pose problems for Johnson, but Johnson's Muay Thai background might give him an edge in the clinch and with leg kicks.
• Grappling Factor: Johnson has shown more willingness to mix in takedowns, which could be crucial if he finds himself struggling with Van's pressure on the feet.
• Experience vs. Youth: Johnson's veteran savvy contrasts with Van's explosive style and finishing ability (6 KO/TKO wins).
• Recent Momentum: Van has faced multiple fight cancellations, while Johnson is coming off two consecutive wins, potentially giving him confidence and momentum.
• Strategic Considerations: Van needs to establish his high-pressure style early and avoid Johnson's clinch game. Johnson might look to control distance and employ leg kicks to slow Van's forward movement.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The -215 odds for Van significantly increased the model's confidence, indicating strong betting market support for Van.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Van's superior metrics suggest he lands more impactful strikes.
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Van's recent striking effectiveness has been even more pronounced.
• Striking Defense Percentage: Van's slight edge in avoiding strikes could be crucial in a striking-heavy bout.
• Reach: Johnson's likely reach advantage is one of the few physical edges he holds, potentially allowing him to keep Van at bay.

Past Model Performance

For Joshua Van, there are no past predictions available, introducing some uncertainty into the model's confidence.

For Charles Johnson, the model has been inconsistent, correctly predicting 3 out of 6 recent bouts. Notably, it incorrectly predicted Johnson's last two victories, suggesting caution in interpreting the current prediction.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI favors Joshua Van in this flyweight clash, primarily due to his superior striking metrics and recent form. Van's ability to land volume with impact gives him a significant edge on paper. However, Charles Johnson's experience, recent victories, and more diverse skill set add an element of unpredictability.

The fight is likely to be a fast-paced, technical striking affair that could go the distance or end in a sudden finish. Van's explosive style and finishing ability make him a dangerous opponent, but Johnson's experience and recent form suggest he won't be easily overwhelmed. This bout serves as a significant test for both fighters' aspirations in the competitive flyweight division, pitting a young, hungry prospect against a seasoned veteran looking to continue his career resurgence.

Analysis: Luana Santos vs Mariya Agapova

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Luana Santos to Win

Score: 20 Odds: Luana Santos: -375 Mariya Agapova: 290

Luana Santos's Breakdown

Luana Santos, a rising star with a 7-1 record, brings a well-rounded skill set to this flyweight clash. Her orthodox stance and 67-inch reach have been effective tools in maintaining distance and controlling fights. Santos's striking accuracy of 55% demonstrates her precision, while her recent KO/TKO victory over Juliana Miller showcases her finishing ability.

Training with Team Alpha Male has significantly enhanced Santos's grappling prowess, complementing her three career submission victories. Her recent unanimous decision win against Stephanie Egger proves she can go the distance against tough opposition.

A crucial factor in Santos's preparation is her management of Hashimoto's disease, an autoimmune condition affecting her thyroid. After a significant weight miss in her previous bantamweight bout, Santos claims the condition is now under control, allowing her to make the flyweight limit for this fight.

Mariya Agapova's Breakdown

Mariya "Demonslayer" Agapova enters the octagon with a 10-4 record and a diverse skill set. Her southpaw stance and slightly longer 68.5-inch reach could pose interesting challenges for Santos. Agapova's striking power is evident in her three TKO victories, while her ground game remains her most significant threat, with five of her ten wins coming by submission.

However, Agapova faces momentum challenges, currently on a two-fight losing streak with her last bout in 2022 ending in a submission loss. Personal and financial difficulties have also plagued Agapova, potentially impacting her mental state entering this crucial fight.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Dynamics: Santos's orthodox vs Agapova's southpaw stance creates an intriguing striking matchup. Santos's accuracy (55.50%) slightly edges Agapova's (57.35%), suggesting cleaner shots.
• Grappling Chess Match: Agapova's submission threat (1.25 submissions attempts per fight) contrasts with Santos's improved ground game from Team Alpha Male training.
• Momentum Shift: Santos rides a four-fight win streak, while Agapova aims to bounce back from consecutive losses.
• Physical Factors: Santos's management of Hashimoto's disease and weight cut to flyweight vs Agapova's slightly longer reach.
• Mental Warfare: Santos's recent success against Agapova's career challenges and financial pressures.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The significant -375 odds for Santos heavily influenced the model's prediction, reflecting strong betting market confidence.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Santos's superior 24.0 vs Agapova's 14.0 suggests more damaging strikes.
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Santos's recent 23.1 outperforms Agapova's 11.78, indicating better current form.
• Recent Win Percentage: Santos's 67% trumps Agapova's 33%, highlighting recent performance disparity.
• Striking Defense Percentage: Santos's 64.21% defense vs Agapova's 54.42% implies better ability to avoid damage.

Past Model Performance

The model correctly predicted Santos's victory over Stephanie Egger (score 0.72), adding credibility to the current prediction. However, it has limited data on Santos, with only one previous prediction.

For Agapova, the model's track record is less reliable, incorrectly predicting her victories against both Gillian Robertson and Maryna Moroz. This inconsistency adds uncertainty to the current prediction.

Conclusion

The data and model prediction favor Luana Santos in this women's flyweight bout. Her superior striking defense, recent form, and the betting market's confidence all point towards a Santos victory. Santos will likely aim to keep the fight standing, leveraging her striking accuracy and power.

However, Agapova's submission threat and southpaw stance present unique challenges. The contrast in recent career trajectories - Santos's rise vs Agapova's struggles - adds an intriguing narrative layer to this matchup.

While the prediction seems solid, Agapova's unpredictability and the model's past inaccuracies with her fights suggest caution. This bout promises to be a compelling clash of styles and career narratives in the women's flyweight division.

Analysis: Josh Fremd vs Andre Petroski

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Josh Fremd to Win

Score: 9 Odds: Josh Fremd: -111 Andre Petroski: -115

Josh Fremd's Breakdown

Fremd enters this bout with an 11-5 record, showcasing a well-rounded skill set with a focus on striking. His boxing fundamentals and effective kick integration have been key to keeping opponents at bay. Recent performances demonstrate improved takedown defense and grappling skills, crucial assets against a wrestler of Petroski's caliber.

Fremd's significant striking output differential of 18.8 and impact differential of 1.4 highlight his striking prowess. Landing 2.93 significant strikes per minute with 43% accuracy, Fremd's stand-up game poses a real threat. His ability to implement strategic game plans was evident in his grinding decision victory over Jamie Pickett at UFC Vegas 78, showcasing valuable three-round experience.

Andre Petroski's Breakdown

Petroski, a TUF 29 alumnus, brings a 10-4 record and a strong wrestling pedigree to the octagon. Despite recent setbacks, his 5-0 UFC start, including a split decision win over veteran Gerald Meerschaert at UFC 292, demonstrates his potential. Petroski's grappling-heavy approach, averaging 4.32 takedowns per fight with 54.29% accuracy, forms the core of his strategy.

Petroski's chain wrestling ability could pose significant problems for Fremd if the fight hits the mat. He's shown striking improvements, landing 3.5 significant strikes per minute with 49.89% accuracy, which may come into play if his takedown attempts are thwarted.

Analysis and Key Points

• Stylistic Clash: Classic striker (Fremd) vs grappler (Petroski) matchup.
• Recent Form: Fremd is 2-1 in his last three, while Petroski has suffered two consecutive KO losses.
• Striking Advantage: Fremd holds a significant edge in striking output and impact differential.
• Grappling Threat: Petroski's wrestling credentials and submission skills (2.27 per fight) pose a significant challenge.
• Reach Factor: Fremd's 3-inch reach advantage could be crucial in maintaining distance.
• Durability Concerns: Petroski's recent KO losses raise questions about his chin.
• Short Notice Readiness: Both fighters have shown willingness to take short-notice fights, indicating consistent preparation.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The close odds slightly favor Fremd, contributing significantly to the model's prediction.
• TrueSkill: Fremd's TrueSkill rating increase suggests consistent performance improvements.
• Striking Impact: Fremd's superior significant striking impact differential indicates more effective striking.
• Recent Performance: Fremd's higher recent win percentage (67% vs 33%) positively influences the prediction.
• Reach: Fremd's reach advantage has been factored in, potentially allowing better distance control.

Past Model Performance

The model has shown mixed results for both fighters but has been more accurate in recent predictions for Petroski. This adds confidence to the current prediction favoring Fremd, as the model seems to be adapting to Petroski's recent decline in performance.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI's prediction favoring Josh Fremd is based on his recent form, striking advantages, and potential to exploit Petroski's defensive vulnerabilities. The fight's outcome likely hinges on where the action takes place. If Fremd can keep the fight standing, his superior striking and reach advantage could allow him to control the distance and pick apart Petroski. However, Petroski's relentless takedown attempts and top control could neutralize Fremd's striking if successful.

Fremd will need to focus on takedown defense and the ability to return to his feet if grounded. His experience in longer fights could be advantageous if he forces Petroski into deep waters. For Petroski, closing the distance quickly and mixing strikes with takedown attempts will be key to preventing Fremd from establishing his striking rhythm.

This middleweight clash promises to be a compelling contest between Fremd's improving striking and Petroski's proven ground game. While the model leans towards Fremd, the close odds suggest a competitive fight that could go either way, making it an intriguing bout with significant implications for both fighters' careers.

Analysis: Montel Jackson vs Da'Mon Blackshear

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Montel Jackson to Win

Score: 8 Odds: Montel Jackson: -155 Da'Mon Blackshear: 130

Montel Jackson's Breakdown

Montel "Quik" Jackson, a southpaw striker with a 13-2 record, brings formidable knockout power and impressive striking accuracy to this bantamweight clash. His nickname is well-earned, with quick hands and feet that make him a constant threat on the feet. Jackson's recent performances have been particularly noteworthy, including a spectacular KO/TKO win over veteran Rani Yahya.

Jackson's ability to control distance and pick apart opponents has been a key factor in his success. His takedown defense is solid, which could be crucial in keeping the fight standing where he has the advantage. In his fight against JP Buys, Jackson showcased this defensive wrestling, stuffing multiple attempts and punishing his opponent with counter strikes.

Da'Mon Blackshear's Breakdown

Da'Mon "The Monster" Blackshear enters the octagon with a 14-6 record and a reputation as a submission specialist. Holding a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt, Blackshear has secured nine victories by submission, including rare techniques like the twister. His ground game is undoubtedly his strongest asset, as demonstrated in his victory over Jose Johnson.

Blackshear employs a switch stance, giving him versatility in his striking approach. While not primarily known for his striking, he has shown improvement in this area, evidenced by his recent TKO victory over Luan Lacerda. However, he has shown vulnerability in striking exchanges, particularly in his unanimous decision loss to Mario Bautista.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking dynamics: Jackson's southpaw stance and superior striking metrics give him a significant edge in stand-up exchanges.
• Ground game contrast: Blackshear's submission prowess versus Jackson's solid takedown defense sets up a classic striker vs. grappler dynamic.
• Recent momentum: Jackson rides a four-fight winning streak, while Blackshear is coming off a loss to Mario Bautista.
• Fight control: Jackson's ability to maintain distance will be crucial in nullifying Blackshear's grappling threat.
• Potential X-factors: Jackson's recent inactivity due to canceled fights and Blackshear's recent training in Thailand could influence their performances.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The betting odds strongly favor Jackson, significantly boosting the model's confidence in his victory.
• Significant striking impact differential: Jackson's ability to land impactful strikes while avoiding damage is a key predictor of success.
• Striking defense percentage: Jackson's superior defensive skills in striking exchanges contribute to the model's confidence in his ability to control the fight.
• Recent win percentage: Jackson's perfect recent record bolsters the prediction for his continued success.
• TrueSkill: Despite a slight decrease in the prediction based on TrueSkill, Jackson's overall metrics still heavily favor him.

Past Model Performance

For Montel Jackson: - The model correctly predicted Jackson's last two fights, including his KO/TKO victory over Rani Yahya and unanimous decision win against Julio Arce, increasing confidence in the current prediction.

For Da'Mon Blackshear: - The model accurately predicted Blackshear's loss to Mario Bautista and his win over Luan Lacerda, demonstrating a good grasp of his capabilities and limitations.

The model's track record with both fighters adds credibility to the current prediction, though Blackshear's limited UFC history introduces some uncertainty.

Conclusion

Montel Jackson's superior striking skills, defensive prowess, and recent performance trend strongly favor him in this matchup. His southpaw stance and quick, accurate striking present significant challenges for Blackshear. While Blackshear's submission threat and improved striking cannot be overlooked, Jackson's well-rounded game and ability to control the fight's pace make him the clear favorite.

The key to this fight lies in where it takes place. If Jackson can keep the fight standing and utilize his footwork to maintain distance, he should be able to exploit his striking advantage. Blackshear's path to victory involves closing the distance quickly and getting the fight to the ground, where his submission skills could prove decisive.

Expect Jackson to employ his superior striking to keep Blackshear at bay, potentially securing a late stoppage or dominant decision victory. However, Blackshear's grappling threat and evolving striking game ensure this bout has the potential to be an exciting and closely contested affair.