Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Analysis: Jean Silva vs Jose Delgado

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jean Silva to Win

Score: 4
Odds:
Jean Silva: -425
Jose Delgado: +325

Jean Silva's Breakdown

Silva is the "Lord Assassin," a Fighting Nerds product who mixes Muay Thai craft with berserker aggression and legitimate fight-ending power in both hands. His resume is a highlight reel: flying knees, spinning elbows, and timed hooks that put men to sleep. But his most recent showing against Arnold Allen at UFC 324 revealed a more mature version of the wild man.

His signature weapons:

• Counter left hook to right straight against southpaws. This is his bread and butter. He starched Melsik Baghdasaryan with it and dropped Bryce Mitchell in Round 1 by timing the left hook, right straight the instant Mitchell stepped back into his stance. Delgado, though, is not a pure southpaw. He is a switch-hitter, which changes this dynamic (more on that below).

• Power right hand behind pressure. Against Allen in Round 2, Silva chased him around the cage and repeatedly snapped his head back with big rights. He kept eating Allen's jab but never stopped walking forward, and his power broke Allen's rhythm by the second round.

• Spinning attacks and the ninja choke. The spinning back elbow that ended Drew Dober in Round 2 nearly finished the fight before the doctor waved it off in Round 3. He also submitted Mitchell with a ninja choke off a reckless drive-forward, snapping up the figure-four and rolling through. When opponents shoot low or push into him, Silva hunts that front headlock.

Silva's evolution is real. Against Allen he added four takedowns over the final ten minutes, showing he can score on the mat and manage a fight to decision rather than only hunting the kill. That was just his second UFC decision. He also mixed in body-head combinations and closed with head kicks and body kicks to punctuate rounds.

Jean Silva's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Absorbs unnecessary damage in firefights. Against Allen, Silva ate hard one-twos that ballooned a knot on his forehead. Against Dober he got tagged by a Superman punch in Round 2. His head movement is not elite, and he accepts damage to land counters. Delgado's power, shown when he dropped Bashi and Wood, makes this a real risk.

• Vulnerability to clinch takedowns and back-takes. This is the blueprint Diego Lopes used to KO him in September 2025. Lopes bypassed Silva's guillotine by going straight to the back rather than shooting the legs, mounted him, and finished with a back elbow. Silva over-swings on offense, and Lopes ducked under to take his back. Any fighter who clinches and hunts upper-body takedowns neutralizes Silva's submission traps.

• Calf kicks and collar-tie uppercuts. Silva ignores low kicks. Lopes established the calf kick immediately and Silva just absorbed them. Lopes also grabbed a collar tie and threw short uppercuts that lifted Silva's head into hooks, and Silva looked visibly worried, even tripping over himself retreating in Round 2.

• Slow starts against movers. Allen out-volumed him in Round 1 by sticking and moving. Silva takes time to read mobile opponents before imposing pressure.

Jose Delgado's Breakdown

Delgado is a 24-year-old MMA Lab product on a rapid rise, 4-1 in the UFC with real physical gifts for the division. He is 5'11" with a 73-inch reach, a genuine size and length advantage at 145. His game runs on stance-switching chaos, power, and clinch entries.

His signature weapons:

• Overhand right and power hooks. He dropped Connor Matthews with a single overhand right from orthodox in Round 1 of his debut. He floored Bashi with a left hook late in Round 1 that fractured the orbital and nose. He also dropped Wood with a spinning back fist in Round 1. This kid has serious pop.

• Clinch knees off boxing entries. He KO'd Hyder Amil in 26 seconds with a body jab into rear straight into left hook that flowed directly into a collar tie, then a knee up the middle. His height lets him land knees from tighter range than most.

• Open-stance rear body kick. Against Andre Fili, whenever they ended up in open stance, Delgado fired his rear leg to the body full power. Against a switch-hitter this is a smart, punishing tool.

Jose Delgado's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Cardio and pacing. This is the big one. Against Wood at UFC 321, Delgado exploded in Round 1 (spinning back fist knockdown) then visibly faded as Wood applied pressure in Rounds 2 and 3. Wood took his back late, secured a takedown, and stole the decision. Delgado has been finished-or-fade heavy.

• Defensive boxing and early explosiveness. He got dropped early by Bashi in Round 1 and rocked again mid-round before recovering. He accepts wild exchanges. Against a counter-puncher like Silva who thrives when opponents open up, this is dangerous.

• Grappling against the cage. Wood ground him out with late takedowns. Bashi muscled him down with a lift and slam. When he cannot keep it at range, he can be controlled.

• Predictable switch-hitting. Against Matthews his stance-switching created hesitation when mirrored. His offense trends toward single power shots rather than sustained combinations, meaning a disciplined counter fighter can time him.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Silva's counter left hook is built for southpaws, but Delgado switches stances, which muddies that read. Here is the catch: Delgado's stance-switching creates open-stance moments, and that is exactly when Silva's power right hand and counters find a home. Silva timed Charles Jourdain's switch-hitting entries perfectly, making him throw preemptive kicks and botch takedown timing before landing the vertical-fist uppercut KO. Delgado's tendency to fire single power shots and reset plays into Silva's counter game the same way.

Delgado's best path is the Lopes and Wood blueprint: pressure Silva, mix in calf kicks he refuses to check, and hunt clinch takedowns or back-takes rather than trading in the pocket. If Delgado can drag Silva into deep water and grind, his size could tell. But Delgado is a striker first who loves the firefight, and firefights are where Silva feasts. Against Dober, a bigger lightweight who pressed forward, Silva stayed just outside range and punished every entry with counter right hooks and the eventual spinning back elbow.

The reach is close to even here, 73 for Delgado versus 69 for Silva, so Delgado's usual length advantage over shorter men is smaller than it was against Bashi and Wood.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Delgado is most dangerous in Round 1, where all his knockdowns live. Expect him to come out fast, switch stances, and load up the overhand right and clinch knees. Silva historically starts patient, which is the risk window. If Silva stalks like he did against Allen, he must respect that early power the way he weathered Bashi-level pressure.

• Mid-fight: This is where it flips. Silva's pressure builds as rounds pass. He hurt Allen in Round 2, dropped Mitchell and submitted him by Round 2, and stopped Dober in Round 3. Delgado faded hard against Wood by Round 2. If Silva survives the opening storm, his cardio and accumulating power should take over.

• Late rounds: Silva closes strong, landing head kicks and body kicks in the final minute against Allen. Delgado's gas tank is the question mark. The longer this goes, the worse it looks for Delgado unless he can put Silva on his back and rest in top control.

Analysis and Key Points

• Silva's counter game punishes Delgado's single-shot power. Just as he timed Jourdain's entries and Dober's rushes, Silva can catch Delgado loading up.
• Delgado's Round 1 power is the live threat. He dropped Bashi, Wood, and Matthews early. Silva's loose defense in firefights means one clean overhand could change everything. Heed the warning: Silva was KO'd by Lopes just two fights ago.
• Cardio favors Silva heavily. Delgado visibly emptied the tank by Round 2 against Wood. Silva finishes late and adds volume as fights wear on.
• Delgado's winning path is grappling, not striking. The Lopes and Wood templates (calf kicks, clinch takedowns, back control) beat Silva. But Delgado is a striker at heart and rarely leads with wrestling.
• The reach edge Delgado usually enjoys is minimal here, removing one of his key advantages.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Silva but the score of 4 is modest, and the SHAP data explains the tension:

• Odds were the dominant factor, pushing the score up by 20. The market has Silva a heavy -425 favorite, and the model leans into that.
• Reach nudged the score up by 2, and win_streak_diff and average_striking_output_differential each added 1.
• Pulling the other way, striking_defense_percentage cut the score by 6, a nod to Silva's habit of absorbing damage. recent_win_perc dropped it by 4, recent_significant_striking_impact_differential by 3, and significant_striking_impact_differential by 2. recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight shaved off 1, reflecting Delgado's higher volume of takedown attempts as a live threat.

So the model likes Silva mainly on the odds and small edges in reach and momentum, while acknowledging his defensive leakiness and Delgado's striking output keep this from being a runaway.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong read on Silva, hitting correctly on Jourdain, Dober, and Allen. Its only miss was the Lopes KO, where it predicted Silva at 0.54 and got caught by the same clinch-and-back-take blueprint Delgado would need to replicate. That miss is the cautionary tale here.

On Delgado, the record is mixed. The model correctly called his wins over Fili and Bashi but missed on the Wood loss (predicted Delgado at 0.60) and misfired on the Amil fight. The Wood miss matters because it is the exact scenario, Delgado fading and getting outworked late, that could repeat against a strong finisher like Silva. The model has not always priced Delgado's cardio dip correctly.

Conclusion

Silva is the pick, and the logic holds. Delgado has real Round 1 power and a puncher's chance, and given Silva was just KO'd by Lopes, you cannot dismiss the early danger. But Silva's counter striking, superior cardio, and habit of finishing strong late line up perfectly against a fighter who fades after his opening burst. Unless Delgado commits to the clinch-and-grind blueprint that beat Silva before, the deeper this fight goes, the more it belongs to the Lord Assassin. WolfTicketsAI backs Jean Silva.

Analysis: Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Brandon Moreno to Win

Score: 1
Odds:
Brandon Moreno: +100
Joseph Morales: -120

Brandon Moreno's Breakdown

You are looking at one of the greatest flyweights to ever do it, but you are also looking at a version of Moreno on the worst slide of his career. He sits at 2-4 over his last six, and the last two came by the ugliest means possible for him: a first-ever stoppage loss to Tatsuro Taira in December 2025, then a lopsided decision loss to Lone'er Kavanagh in February 2026. That is a hard truth to sit with when analyzing a legend.

When Moreno is right, his game is built on volume pressure and a nasty left hook. Signature weapons you can count on:

• Counter left hook over the right hand. This is his money punch. In the Figueiredo trilogy and quadrilogy, he timed it to near-mechanical reliability. The finishing sequence against Figueiredo IV in Round 3 came off a parry-to-left hook that swelled the eye shut. Against Kai Kara-France at UFC 245, that same counter left dropped jaws in Round 2.
• Step-up left kick off the 1-2. First shown against Kara-France, refined against Albazi where he elevated it from the leg to a head kick that clipped Albazi through the guard. Body and head variations make it a real level-change threat.
• Scramble-heavy grappling into back takes. His title win over Figueiredo at UFC 263 was a back-take clinic finished with a rear naked choke in Round 3. He took Figueiredo's back in two of three rounds. Against Ortiz in 2017 he landed the head kick, took the back, and finished with the RNC.

The technical evolution has been real over the years, from raw kicker to jab-centric point fighter to the shortened, balanced stance he adopted under new coaching. But the recent form shows regression, not growth. His speed and reactions are fading against the young elite.

Brandon Moreno's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Lead leg defense against calf kicks. This is now a glaring hole. Kavanagh brutalized his lead leg from Round 1 in February 2026, and by mid-Round 2 Moreno was visibly limping. Taira and Figueiredo III both exploited the same weakness. Morales does not have a big kicking game, so this may not matter here, but it shows the mileage.
• Counter susceptibility on aggressive entries. Moreno throws his head forward and lunges after looping shots. Royval timed lead uppercuts and stepping knees into that forward lean in their rematch. Kavanagh's counter right nearly finished him in Round 2. This same head-forward habit is a submission risk against a grappler who can catch a guillotine on the way in.
• Back control defense. Taira took his back with a body triangle and finished him with ground and pound in Round 2 at UFC 323, the first stoppage of Moreno's career. This is directly relevant here. Morales is a back-take and choke specialist.

When his primary gameplan fails, Moreno leans on durability and forward pressure, shelling up and grinding in the clinch. Against Kavanagh that produced control time but no damage. He does not fold mentally, but the tools are slower than they were.

Joseph Morales's Breakdown

Morales is a Team Alpha Male submission specialist who won TUF 33 and has rattled off wins in his second UFC run, both by submission. He is 15-2 overall with a nasty guillotine as his calling card.

Signature weapons:

• Guillotine choke off scrambles and takedown attempts. This is his nastiest hold. Against Matt Schnell in November 2025, Schnell shot a takedown, got reversed via X-guard sweep, and eventually turned into a deep guillotine for the tap at 2:54 of Round 1. His UFC debut win over Sanchez in 2017 also ended in a submission after a striking-to-grappling transition.
• Chain submission wrestling into back control. Against Alibi Idiris at TUF 33, he timed reactive double-legs off spinning attacks and finished with a triangle in Round 3, showing proper angle-cutting mechanics. Against Schnell he threaded a kimura threat into a crucifix into the finishing guillotine.
• Reactive takedowns off opponent mistakes. He waits for overcommitment, then shoots. This is patient, opportunistic grappling.

The evolution from his first UFC stint is clear. The old Morales got outwrestled 7-to-1 by Eric Shelton in 2018 and stopped by Figueiredo. The current version is more composed and finishes cleaner, but the sample is thin against top competition.

Joseph Morales's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Striking output and defense. His numbers are low, around 2.0 significant strikes landed per minute, and his striking defense sits under 50 percent historically. Figueiredo stopped him with punches at distance in Round 2 back in 2018. Against a volume striker like Moreno, he can get picked apart if the fight stays standing.
• Defensive wrestling. He gets taken down and reversed into. Shelton put him on his back at will. Sanchez took him down 30 seconds in. He survives via submission threats from bottom, but a savvy scrambler like Moreno may not bite.
• Unproven against elite level. His only real step-up fights, Figueiredo and Shelton, were both losses. His recent wins came against Schnell (0-3 at the Apex) and Idiris. That is a real gap in competition compared to what Moreno has faced.

When his grappling gameplan stalls, Morales has limited options. His striking is a setup tool, not a standalone weapon, and his cardio past Round 1 at UFC level is untested against a five-round veteran.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is grappler versus scrambler, and that is the whole fight.

• Moreno's tools that exploit Morales: Moreno's jab-centric volume and counter left hook match up beautifully against a low-output striker with sub-50 percent striking defense. If Moreno keeps it standing and uses lateral movement, he lands the more impactful shots the way Figueiredo did in 2018. Moreno's scrambling is also elite. He has escaped back control and guillotines against far better grapplers than Morales, notably his Granby rolls and turtle escapes against Figueiredo, and his triangle survival against Taira in Round 1. Moreno is not the kind of fighter who dives headfirst into a guillotine.
• Morales's tools that trouble Moreno: The guillotine is the live threat. Moreno throws his head forward on entries and shoots single legs when compromised. If Moreno gets careless closing distance or shooting, Morales can snatch a neck. The Taira loss also proves Moreno can be finished from back control if a specialist gets there. Morales wants a scramble where Moreno overcommits.
• Historical parallel: Look at how Moreno handled Jussier Formiga in 2020. Formiga was a decorated grappler, and Moreno used his jab-hook to keep him hesitant, then defended the guillotine and armbar while staying composed. That is the blueprint here, and Morales is a notch below Formiga in overall resume.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Morales is most dangerous in Round 1, where every one of his recent finishes has come. Moreno needs to avoid the early scramble trap and establish the jab. If Moreno survives the first five minutes clean, the math tilts hard.
• Mid-fight: Moreno's volume and cardio start to tell. Morales has never shown a deep gas tank at UFC level, and his output drops when the submission does not come. This is where Moreno's pressure and left hook accumulate.
• Championship rounds: Moreno holds the all-time flyweight record for total fight time. He has lived in five-round wars. Morales has never been past the second round in the UFC. If this goes late, cardio and experience are lopsided in Moreno's favor.

Analysis and Key Points

• Moreno's scramble IQ neutralizes the guillotine threat. He escaped Figueiredo's body locks and survived Taira's Round 1 triangle. Morales's best weapon is one Moreno defends better than almost anyone at 125.
• Striking gap is severe. Moreno's volume and left hook against Morales's sub-50 percent defense mirrors the Figueiredo stoppage in 2018.
• The real danger is a careless entry. Moreno's head-forward lunges are the one path to a Morales guillotine. Discipline on entries is the key.
• Cardio and experience are one-sided. Moreno has five-round wars logged; Morales has never left Round 2 in the UFC.
• Warning on Moreno's recent form. He was just KO'd by Taira and battered by Kavanagh. He is 2-4 in his last six. That downward trend is real, even if the stylistic matchup favors him here.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on maximum confidence, and the SHAP features tell you why:

• Odds was the biggest mover, pushing the score up by 4.0. The near pick-em line with Moreno at +100 still reflects a fighter the market respects.
• recent_win_perc pulled the score down by 2.0, correctly flagging Moreno's 2-4 skid.
• trueskill dropped it by 1.0, though Moreno's Mu of 37.6 dwarfs Morales's 21.9 with a huge sigma, meaning Morales is far less proven.
• win_streak_diff, average_striking_output_differential, recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight, striking_defense_percentage, and recent_significant_striking_impact_differential each added 1.0, reflecting Moreno's superior striking volume, activity, and defensive metrics.
• recent_striking_impact_differential shaved off 1.0, a nod to his recent damage absorbed.

The positives, especially the odds and striking metrics, outweigh the recency penalties.

Past Model Performance

This is a mixed bag you should respect. WolfTicketsAI has been wrong on Moreno repeatedly of late, missing on Kavanagh, Taira, Royval, and Pantoja. The model tends to overrate Moreno's floor against elite, fast opposition. That is the caution. The vote of confidence is that when the matchup fits Moreno's strengths, the model nails it, as with Erceg, Albazi, and Kara-France. On Morales, the model is 1-for-1, correctly calling his Schnell submission. The difference here is that Morales is not the fast, technical striker who has been beating Moreno. He is exactly the kind of grappler Moreno has historically handled.

Conclusion

Morales is a real submission threat in Round 1, and a lazy entry could get Moreno choked. But this is the wrong style to fix Moreno's recent problems with, and the right style to remind everyone what he still does well. His scramble defense neutralizes the guillotine, his volume and left hook punish a low-output striker, and his cardio and five-round experience bury Morales if it goes long. WolfTicketsAI is riding with Brandon Moreno, and the stylistic logic backs the pick.

Analysis: Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Tommy McMillen to Win

Score: 20
Odds:
Tommy McMillen: -165
Marwan Rahiki: +140

Tommy McMillen's Breakdown

McMillen is the pressure machine of this matchup, an 11-0 wrecking ball who fights like his nickname "The Gun" demands. His calling card is volume, and not the theoretical kind. Against Alberto Montes on July 18, 2026, he landed 252 significant strikes to break Nate Diaz's 15-year UFC record, averaging nearly 19 strikes per minute over 13-plus minutes. That's not a typo. He drowns opponents in output.

Here are the signature weapons you need to know:

• Cage-cutting forward pressure into volume combinations. Against Montes he marched him backward from the opening bell, outlanding him 74-23 in round one alone. He does not let opponents breathe. This is the tool that nullified Montes' grappling entirely, keeping him on the defensive rather than shooting.
• Uppercut-to-body-shot finishing sequence. Early in round three against Montes, McMillen dropped him with an uppercut followed by a body shot, then swarmed for the TKO. He chains head and body targets to open the finish, not single power shots.
• Clinch knees and elbows. In his debut against Manolo Zecchini on April 4, 2026, when Zecchini charged in, McMillen backpedaled cracking him with counters, then switched to offense and ended it with a brutal body knee against the fence at 3:57 of round one.

His technical evolution is real. The Zecchini fight was called "controlled chaos," a sloppy firefight. The Montes fight was "measured aggression across fifteen minutes." He's tightening up while keeping the pace. Both wins earned Performance of the Night bonuses, a rare feat in a fighter's first two Octagon trips.

Tommy McMillen's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Hittability and chin exposure. This is the big one. Montes dropped McMillen with short punches in round one before McMillen recovered. His significant strike defense sits at 58%, and his recent striking defense percentage is a concerning 0.479. He eats shots to give shots.
• Chin elevation under fire. When absorbing Montes' counters, McMillen kept his chin high, which led directly to the knockdowns he suffered. A precise counter-puncher can find that opening.
• High strike absorption rate. In his debut he was absorbing 5.67 significant strikes per minute. He wins the exchanges through volume and recovery, but the damage comes in. Against a patient counter-striker, that willingness to trade is the exact recipe that gets exploited.

Marwan Rahiki's Breakdown

Rahiki is 9-0 and a completely different animal, a patient counter-puncher who feeds on aggression. Where McMillen wants a firefight, Rahiki wants you to overcommit so he can make you pay.

His signature techniques:

• Patient counter-punching during opponent flurries. Against Harry Hardwick on March 14, 2026, Rahiki waited out Hardwick's volume and timed a counter clean enough to break Hardwick's jaw in round two. He does not lead. He punishes.
• Defensive shell to counter return. He covers up, weathers the storm, then fires back the instant the opponent pauses or opens their guard. This is his rhythm against pressure fighters.
• Power on the counter. His counters carry finishing weight, evidenced by the broken jaw and his KO/TKO wins over Hardwick and Ollie Schmid.

The clear caution here is data quality. The Schmid fight on May 2, 2026 produced no usable technical breakdown, so his recent film is thin. What we have shows a dangerous but somewhat one-dimensional counter game.

Marwan Rahiki's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Struggles against sustained volume. This is the killer flaw against this opponent. Against Hardwick's Diaz-style double jabs, Rahiki was repeatedly forced into a defensive shell and struggled to find clean counter windows. The quote is direct: "he'd be covering up and then he'd start to come back and it would just be another jab, it'd be there immediately."
• Reactive, not proactive. Rahiki needs opponents to lead so he can time them. Against a fighter who throws 19 strikes per minute in relentless combinations, the counter windows shrink and the incoming volume never stops.
• Lower output. Rahiki lands 8.99 strikes per minute to McMillen's 18.99. If he cannot land the one big counter, he loses the math badly on any scorecard.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a textbook volume-pressure versus counter-puncher clash, and the tape tells you how it likely goes.

Rahiki's path to victory is narrow but real. McMillen's chin elevation and 58% strike defense are exactly the openings Rahiki exploits. If McMillen marches in careless the way he did early against Montes, Rahiki can time the counter that broke Hardwick's jaw and end the night. That's the live danger, and it's why this is only a score of 20.

But the McMillen weapons that trouble Rahiki are more numerous. Rahiki's own kryptonite, per his Hardwick tape, is exactly the double-jab, high-volume pressure that McMillen brings in far greater quantity than Hardwick ever could. Where Hardwick forced Rahiki into a shell with jabs alone, McMillen brings jabs plus body work, uppercuts, knees, and elbows, all at a record-setting pace. Rahiki spent long stretches covering up against a lower-volume man. Against The Gun, those shell-and-counter windows may never open.

The Montes fight is the blueprint. Montes had power and even dropped McMillen, but the relentless pressure never let him settle. Rahiki, a reactive fighter who needs opponents to commit and pause, faces the same suffocation with less output to answer.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Expect McMillen to march forward and start piling on volume immediately, as he did 74-23 in round one against Montes. Rahiki will look to counter early, and this is his most dangerous window while McMillen is fresh and potentially careless. If Rahiki lands the big counter here, the upset is on.
• Mid-fight: If McMillen survives the early counter threat, his pace compounds. Rahiki gets pushed into the shell he hated against Hardwick, and the volume differential (19 vs 9 per minute) starts painting a lopsided picture. This is where McMillen's uppercut-to-body finishing sequence tends to appear.
• Late rounds: McMillen has shown he can maintain output across fifteen minutes against Montes. Rahiki's recent striking defense (0.402) suggests damage accumulation. If it goes long, the pressure man historically breaks the counter man down.

Analysis and Key Points

• McMillen's volume is Rahiki's documented weakness. Rahiki got stuck in a shell against Hardwick's jabs alone. McMillen brings that pressure times two with a full arsenal.
• Rahiki's one real path is the counter that broke Hardwick's jaw. McMillen's elevated chin and 58% strike defense make that a live threat, which is why the score is a cautious 20.
• The math favors McMillen brutally. Nearly 19 significant strikes landed per minute versus under 9 for Rahiki. If nobody gets finished, the cards are lopsided.
• McMillen recovers well. Montes dropped him and still got finished. Rahiki likely needs a clean one-shot, not a wobble.
• Warning: McMillen is hittable and has been dropped. Do not treat this as a walkover. A single perfectly timed Rahiki counter can flip it.

Understanding the Prediction

The SHAP data shows why the model leans McMillen but stays cautious at 20:

• significant_striking_impact_differential was the biggest driver, adding 10 points. McMillen's 125 mark dwarfs Rahiki's 19.
• odds added 4 points, reflecting McMillen's -165 favorite status.
• striking_impact_differential added another 4 points on the same theme.
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential added 2, and recent_win_perc added 2 (both sit at 0.67 recently, so this is marginal).
• trueskill and striking_defense_percentage each added 1.

Everything else, including reach, takedown volume, and output differentials, moved the needle 0. The pick is built almost entirely on McMillen's striking impact edge, not on defense or wrestling, which fits the eye test.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has one prior read on McMillen and nailed it, correctly calling his KO/TKO win over Montes on July 18, 2026 with a 0.67 score. That's a vote of confidence. The model has no prediction history on Rahiki, so there's blind-spot risk on his side, and combined with the missing Schmid breakdown, Rahiki is the less-known quantity here. Treat the low score of 20 as the model flagging that uncertainty rather than a slam-dunk.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI takes Tommy McMillen, and the tape backs it. Rahiki's single kryptonite is high-volume pressure, and McMillen is the highest-volume pressure fighter in the division right now. The counter that broke Hardwick's jaw is the one live equalizer, so this isn't risk-free, and McMillen's hittable chin keeps the score modest at 20. But the smart read is McMillen suffocating Rahiki with output, breaking him down with body work and uppercuts, and adding another finish to the highlight reel. Ride The Gun.

Analysis: Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Manon Fiorot to Win

Score: 22
Odds:
Manon Fiorot: -240
Alexa Grasso: +195

Manon Fiorot's Breakdown

Fiorot is the pressure-forward kickboxer who has bullied nearly everyone the flyweight division has put in front of her. Her game runs on physicality, distance control, and a small but heavy toolkit. You saw the full package against Erin Blanchfield in March 2024, where she stuffed 3 of 4 takedowns using early underhooks and hip awareness, then chipped away with front kicks to the solar plexus that killed Blanchfield's forward pressure. She out-landed her 172 to 130 and never let the fight hit the mud for long.

Her signature weapons are worth cataloging:

• Sidekick and front kick to the body. Against Katlyn Cerminara and Jennifer Maia she used the teep and side kick to break rhythm and deny entries. This is her range ruler.
• Counter right hook and the left hand over the top. Against Rose Namajunas in September 2023 she wobbled her with a hand trap-left straight-leaping right hook in round 1. Against Jasmine Jasudavicius in October 2025 she landed a left hand across the top out of a scrappy exchange, then swarmed with punches and knees for the first-round TKO.
• Clinch knees and elbows. Even in the Shevchenko loss she banked over seven minutes of control time, landing inside knees and an elbow that stunned Valentina in round 3.

The technical evolution is real but limited. She has added wrestling insurance and cardio that holds through five rounds, shown in the fifth-round haymaker trade with Shevchenko. But her striking is still built on single power shots, not fluid combinations.

Manon Fiorot's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Predictable entries into range. This is the big one. Shevchenko timed her all night at UFC 315. Every time Fiorot stepped in, she ate a counter right hook that bloodied her nose in round 1 and wobbled her knees. Her entries are linear and easy to read.
• Lead leg dependency and bladed stance. Rose Namajunas buckled that lead leg with outside low kicks early in their fight. Fiorot's bladed karate stance leaves the leg exposed, and she does not check well. Yan Xiaonan's blueprint against Joanna is the template here.
• No plan B when countered. When opponents duck her right hook, she keeps throwing the same right hook. Against Namajunas she threw herself off balance in round 3 overcommitting into the fence. She does not chain to uppercuts or head kicks off the miss.
• Chin exposed late in exchanges. Shevchenko floored her with a counter jab right before the round 4 bell, and cracked her with spinning strikes she walked into repeatedly.

Alexa Grasso's Breakdown

Grasso is a technical boxer-puncher with a BJJ brown belt and a habit of getting better the longer a fight goes. She earned the belt off Shevchenko in March 2023 by fighting southpaw, cutting the cage, and stringing longer combinations, body jab to head jab to one-two, that trapped Valentina on the fence. She capitalized on a spinning kick attempt to take the back and finish with the rear-naked choke.

Her signature tools:

• Counter combinations and the check left hook. Against Viviane Araujo she recognized her opponent threw only singles and punished with follow-up punches on the reset. Against Maycee Barber in the March 2026 rematch she countered forward pressure with a left hook then a right cross for a brutal one-punch KO. That finish matters here.
• Defensive head movement and slipping. She moves her head after exchanges, which made Araujo look one-dimensional and kept her cleaner in pocket trades.
• Opportunistic back takes. She reads spinning and off-balance moments perfectly, seen against both Shevchenko and Joanne Wood, where a spinning attempt gave her the back and the choke.

Her recent form is a concern. She has lost 2 of her last 3 in the cage, dropping decisions to Shevchenko (Sept 2024) and Natalia Silva (May 2025) before the Barber KO. That Barber knockout showed a new dimension of finishing power, and she credited being injury-free.

Alexa Grasso's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Cannot cut the cage against movement. Natalia Silva exposed this in May 2025. Grasso double-jabbed, landed, then stepped back and gave up center cage. She followed Silva in straight lines and never cornered her. This is a gym-wide Lobo problem.
• Wrestling and top control. Every meaningful loss, Esparza, Suarez, Herrig, and the last two Shevchenko fights, involved being outwrestled or controlled. She reverts to busy but ineffective guard play and hunts submissions that rarely land instead of standing back up.
• Fades from discipline into lunging. In the third Shevchenko fight she started sharp then began lunging after her, which opened the takedowns. When her early rhythm fails she gets sloppy and overextends.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a fascinating clash of Fiorot's predictable pressure against Grasso's counter game.

Grasso's best path is obvious. Fiorot's linear entries are exactly what Shevchenko punished with the counter right hook, and Grasso just KO'd Barber with a left hook-right cross off pressure. If Fiorot marches in behind single shots, Grasso can time her the same way. Grasso's check left hook is tailor-made for a fighter who loads up her own right hook and loses balance.

But the matchup cuts hard against Grasso too. Fiorot is not Barber or Silva. She brings size, a takedown attack (3.6 attempts per fight recently), and heavy clinch work. Grasso's cage-cutting flaw does not hurt her here because Fiorot comes to her. And Grasso's biggest hole, wrestling and control, is exactly what Fiorot can exploit. Fiorot banked seven minutes of control on Shevchenko and mixes knees and elbows in the clinch. Against Silva, Grasso needed a mobile target to expose her, but Fiorot wants to close and grind, playing into her strengths, not Grasso's.

The Namajunas fight is the template. Rose was the better pure boxer but could not stop Fiorot's size and pressure. Grasso is a better version of that puzzle, but she carries the same wrestling weakness Fiorot loves to target.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Highest danger for Fiorot. This is where Grasso's counters are sharpest and where the Barber KO happened. If Fiorot rushes in careless, she can get clipped just like Shevchenko clipped her. Expect Fiorot to lead with side kicks and the jab to measure before committing.
• Mid-fight: Fiorot's clinch and takedown pressure should start banking control time and knees, as it did against Blanchfield in rounds 2 through 5. Grasso historically gives up center cage and drifts to guard when grounded, which loses her rounds on the cards.
• Championship rounds: Fiorot's cardio held against Shevchenko into a fifth-round brawl. Grasso stays composed late but her offense from bottom rarely scores. Volume and control tilt the late frames toward Fiorot if she avoids the early counter.

Analysis and Key Points

• Fiorot's clinch and wrestling attack the exact hole every Grasso loss shares. Esparza, Suarez, and Shevchenko all beat her with control. Fiorot brings that same pressure with size.
• Grasso's counter right hand is the live threat. Shevchenko bloodied and wobbled Fiorot with it repeatedly, and Grasso just iced Barber with the same idea. Warning here is real.
• KO caution runs both ways but favors Fiorot avoiding it. Fiorot was not KO'd recently, she went the distance with Shevchenko, but she was badly hurt by counters. Grasso has fresh one-shot power.
• Grasso's cage-cutting flaw is neutralized because Fiorot brings the fight rather than circling away like Silva.
• Grasso is 2 of last 3 losses in-cage before Barber. The downward trend is offset by a career-best finish, but the wrestling hole remains unfixed.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Fiorot with a modest score of 22. The features that moved the needle:

• odds was the biggest driver, adding 12 points, reflecting Fiorot as a clear -240 favorite.
• significant_striking_impact_differential added 5, backing Fiorot's heavier, cleaner output.
• striking_defense_percentage added 3, and recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage added 2, pointing to her improved recent defensive numbers (0.74 recent significant striking defense).
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential added 2 and recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight added 2, rewarding her pressure and volume wrestling threat.
• recent_win_perc added 1.

The rest, including trueskill, reach, and win streak difference, registered no meaningful change. The relatively low score of 22 tells you the model sees this as a favorite it likes but not a lock, consistent with the counter-striking danger Grasso brings.

Past Model Performance

Read this section with caution. The model has a rough history with both fighters. It went 1 for 2 on Fiorot's most relevant recent bouts, correctly calling the Jasudavicius TKO but missing the Shevchenko loss where it favored Fiorot at 0.61. That miss is the exact scenario in play again, a top counter-striker timing Fiorot's entries.

On Grasso, the model has been repeatedly wrong. It missed all three Shevchenko fights and blew the Barber prediction badly, picking Barber at 0.71 right before Grasso KO'd her. The takeaway is clear: the model has struggled to price Grasso's ceiling and her ability to land the fight-ending shot. That is the live risk to this pick.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI takes Manon Fiorot, and the logic holds up. Grasso's fatal flaw, wrestling and cage control, is the exact department where Fiorot lives, and Grasso's cage-cutting weakness gets erased by an opponent who walks straight to her. The path to a Fiorot win runs through the clinch, the takedown, and grinding knees over five rounds, just like she did to Blanchfield and Namajunas. The one real danger is Grasso's counter right hand landing early, the same shot Shevchenko used to wobble Fiorot, and the same idea that flatlined Barber. If Fiorot enters behind her side kick and jab instead of charging in, she controls this fight. Fiorot by decision, with an eye on the early exchanges.

Analysis: Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Waldo Cortes Acosta to Win

Score: 12
Odds:
Waldo Cortes Acosta: -205
Curtis Blaydes: +170

Waldo Cortes Acosta's Breakdown

"Salsa Boy" has turned into one of the hottest names in the heavyweight division, and it is easy to see why. His hands are fast, his jab is a machine gun, and the right hand that put away Shamil Gaziev is a genuine fight-ender. Against Gaziev in November 2025, he got backed to the fence, circled off, snapped a jab, then uncorked a "winging fastball" right hand that had Gaziev out before he hit the mat, all inside 82 seconds. Three weeks earlier he did the same thing to Ante Delija, detonating a looping right within 30 seconds of the restart despite fighting with 20% vision after an eye poke.

Signature techniques you can bank on:

• Jab-to-power-right hand chain. This is his bread and butter. Against Derrick Lewis at UFC 324, he doubled up the jab in Round 2 to disrupt Lewis's rhythm and set up the counter that dropped him. Against Gaziev, the jab was the tripwire before both knockdowns.
• Counter right hand on aggressive entries. He waits for opponents to overcommit. Lewis lunged with a wild hook in Round 2 and ate a counter jab that put him down; Waldo swarmed for the finish.
• Leg kicks to slow forward pressure. He chopped at Lewis's legs early in Round 1 to compromise his mobility before the finish.

Technical evolution: after his flat decision loss to Sergei Pavlovich in August 2025, he became more patient and composed. He described "the old Waldo" returning, blending killer instinct with poise. The recent Volkov loss, however, showed the ceiling of his game against a rangy, technical striker who managed distance.

Waldo Cortes Acosta's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Leg kick defense. This has been his Achilles heel since day one. Marcos Rogério de Lima chopped his lead leg apart in April 2023, wobbling him within the first minute and walking him down for three rounds. Jared Vanderaa and Chase Sherman both targeted the same leg in his first two UFC fights. He plants heavy on the lead leg and does not check consistently.
• Takedown defense and bottom game. His grappling is his weakest area. De Lima took him down in all three rounds and threatened the back. His takedown defense ratio sits around 35%. Against a wrestler of Blaydes's caliber, this is the alarm bell.
• Cage positioning. He tends to fight off the fence rather than controlling center, as seen against Pavlovich where he fought with his back foot on the cage the whole fight. That gives a wrestler easy fence entries for takedowns.

Curtis Blaydes's Breakdown

Blaydes is the most prolific takedown artist in UFC heavyweight history. When his wrestling is on, he is a wall of pressure. Against Alexander Volkov in 2020 he set the heavyweight record with 14 takedowns. Against Justin Willis he threw the big man around with lateral drops and suplexes. He mixes in a genuinely good, long jab off his 80-inch reach that snaps heads back.

Signature techniques:

• Blast double leg and chain wrestling. Against Rizvan Kuniev in June 2025 he shot a double leg within 30 seconds and racked up control time before his MCL gave out. Against Abdurakhimov he chained five takedowns and finished with elbows.
• Ground-and-pound elbows from half guard. He finished Overeem and Almeida this way. The Almeida finish came off a sprawl where he used belly pressure on the head, then rained hammerfists.
• Power jab behind reach. He drops opponents with it, as he did to Willis in Round 2 before a high-amplitude slam.

Technical evolution: unfortunately, the recent trend is downward. He lost to Josh Hokit in April 2026, and analysts hammered his "honest" jab with no feints that gets countered by right hands over the top. He also showed cardio decline, reduced to arm-poking in Round 3.

Curtis Blaydes's Technical Vulnerabilities

• The honest, feint-free jab. This is the big one. Ngannou, Lewis, Aspinall, and Hokit all timed the same counter right hand over the top of his jab. Lewis's uppercut knockout in 2021 came exactly when Blaydes ducked into it. Waldo's entire game is timing counter rights on aggressive or predictable entries. This is a direct match.
• Chin against power. Every one of Blaydes's losses has come by KO/TKO from strikes. Kuniev nearly finished him late in a fight he officially won. Against a genuine one-shot puncher, this is a live risk in every exchange.
• Cardio after Round 3. He faded badly against Volkov and Hokit, and reduced to poking. If Waldo survives early, the later rounds could open up.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is the classic wrestler vs power-striker puzzle, and it cuts both ways.

What Blaydes does to Waldo: takedowns. Waldo has never faced a wrestler close to Blaydes's level, and his takedown defense cratered against a lesser grappler in de Lima. If Blaydes shoots early and often, controls on the fence, and grinds, he can neutralize the right hand and win rounds the way he did against Volkov and Hunt. His path is clear and proven.

What Waldo does to Blaydes: he punishes the exact defensive flaw that has ended Blaydes four times. Blaydes throws his jab without feints, and Waldo's counter right hand over the top is his highest-percentage weapon. This mirrors the Lewis fight almost perfectly, where Lewis waited for the predictable entry and starched him. Waldo also has heavy hands during takedown entries, and Blaydes has been dropped and rocked by knees and counters on the way in before, notably against Rozenstruik and Hunt.

The heuristic warnings both fire here. Blaydes was outstruck and nearly finished in his last win, then lost his most recent fight. Waldo's leg kick and wrestling weaknesses are real, but Blaydes's chin and predictable striking are the more exploitable flaws given Waldo's power.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: This is Blaydes's window to shoot and control. But it is also the most dangerous phase for him, because his takedown entries expose his chin, and Waldo lands his hardest shots on aggressive opponents in the first two rounds. Both of Waldo's recent knockouts came inside two rounds.
• Mid-fight: If Blaydes is grinding top control, he banks rounds. If he is standing and jabbing, Waldo's counter right is a constant threat. Expect Blaydes to lean on wrestling to stay safe.
• Late rounds: Blaydes historically fades after Round 3. If this reaches deep water and Waldo is still upright, his fresher hands and volume favor him, similar to how Volkov picked at a tiring Blaydes.

Analysis and Key Points

• Warning, recent KO/TKO loss: Waldo was beaten by Volkov by decision, but more importantly Blaydes has been knocked out in every loss and was nearly finished by Kuniev. The power puncher in this fight is Waldo.
• Warning, downward trend for Blaydes: He has lost two of his last three, with a controversial split over Kuniev sandwiched in. His recent win percentage sits at 33%.
• Direct technical mismatch: Blaydes's honest jab meets Waldo's counter right hand over the top, the exact tool Lewis used to sleep him.
• Waldo's kryptonite is wrestling: de Lima gave the blueprint. Blaydes is a far better wrestler than de Lima. If he commits to takedowns, Waldo has shown no answer.
• Cardio edge: Waldo is fresher and more active late; Blaydes fades.

Understanding the Prediction

The model leans Waldo, but only by a razor-thin score of 12.

• Odds were the biggest driver, adding 10 points. Waldo is the betting favorite at -205, and the market backs him.
• trueskill added 2, though note Blaydes actually holds a higher raw TrueSkill Mu, so this reflects broader modeling rather than pure skill rating.
• striking_defense_percentage and recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage each nudged the score up, reflecting Waldo's sharper recent defensive numbers.
• significant_striking_impact_differential, recent_significant_striking_impact_differential, striking_impact_differential, significant_striking_output_differential, and recent_win_perc each added a point, all pointing at Waldo's superior and more damaging output.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight was the one feature that pulled against Waldo, subtracting a point. That is Blaydes's wrestling volume flashing as the real danger.

Past Model Performance

The model has a strong but imperfect record on Waldo, going roughly 8 of 11, and it has correctly called his recent knockout wins over Delija and Spivac. It did miss on his Lewis win, having picked Lewis. On Blaydes, the model is mixed, and notably it whiffed on the Pavlovich and Hokit fights, both cases where Blaydes's striking flaws and chin betrayed him. That pattern is a vote of confidence here, since the same flaws are on the menu against a puncher like Waldo.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI backs Waldo Cortes Acosta, and the logic holds. Blaydes brings elite wrestling that could absolutely drown Waldo if he commits to it, and that is the live danger. But Blaydes has to survive the entries, and his feint-free jab walks straight into the counter right hand that has ended Waldo's last two opponents and matches the exact flaw that has knocked Blaydes out four times. With Blaydes on a downward slide, a suspect chin, and fading cardio, the smart read sides with the fresher, harder-hitting man. Waldo Cortes Acosta is the pick.

Analysis: David Martinez vs Dan Ige

WolfTicketsAI Predicts David Martinez to Win

Score: 18
Odds:
David Martinez: -380
Dan Ige: +300

David Martinez's Breakdown

David Martinez is the real deal at 135, a World Games kickboxing gold medalist who has stormed to a 14-1 record with a perfect 3-0 UFC mark. He built that run on speed, footwork, and precision, and he keeps adding wrinkles to his game.

His signature weapons:

• Quick combination striking with a circle-out exit. Against Marlon Vera in February 2026, Martinez cracked the veteran's chin with two hooks and an uppercut in Round 1, then hopped on his bike with jabs and straights. He posted a 19-5 significant strike edge in that opening frame. He lands clean combos then vanishes before the return comes.
• Low kicks to open the toolbox. Against Vera he answered an opening high kick with two immediate low kicks. He hit around 78 percent on leg strikes that night, using them to break Vera's forward march and set up hands.
• Tactical takedowns as a reset button. This is his evolution. He tripped Vera at the end of Round 1, then grabbed another takedown in Round 2 right after eating a head kick, using grappling to kill momentum. Against Rob Font in September 2025, he opened southpaw to shut down Font's jab, switched to orthodox at the midway point, and never really ate the jab again. That kind of stance planning is high-level.

His debut against Saimon Oliveira in March 2025 showed the finishing side. He controlled the center with feints and kicks, then dropped Oliveira with a step-back right hand and closed with a knee for the Round 1 TKO.

David Martinez's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Cardio dips late. Against Vera, his output visibly fell in Round 3, and analysts noted he was "gassing out." Vera nearly stole the fight in a five-round scenario. If this goes long and Ige presses, Martinez fades.
• Chin questions under real power. With roughly 30 seconds left against Vera, a clean Vera hook stunned him and turned the tide. He survived, but the durability question is open. Ige carries genuine one-shot power, which is a live concern.
• Predictable circle-out footwork. In the Font fight, by Round 2 Font read the lead-leg-back, square, side-skip exit pattern and started kicking the trailing leg. That trailing leg is the last limb out of range and gets exposed. A timing striker can punish that exit.

Dan Ige's Breakdown

Dan Ige is a rugged, durable gatekeeper with real pop, a 19-11 record, and a career of never being finished, until Melquizael Costa cracked that in February 2026. He is a switch-hitter who leans on athleticism and boxing.

His signature weapons:

• Lead hook to straight right down the middle. His best boxing comes when he plants and lets go. Against Andre Fili in February 2024, he flowed inside low kicks straight into punch combos and finished in under two minutes.
• Calf kick to overhand right against taller men. Against Sean Woodson in April 2025, he ate early calf kicks but timed Woodson's jab, slipped outside, and landed a crushing overhand right for the finish. He closes range on longer fighters by catching kicks and converting to takedown threats.
• Stance switching into wrestling entries. Against Lerone Murphy he shifted southpaw, chained a left straight into a stepping left hook, and hit a theatrical double-leg slam. When his boxing works, it is because he strings it together.

The problem is the recent slide. Ige has lost four of his last five, dropping decisions to Diego Lopes, Lerone Murphy, and Patricio Pitbull, and getting knocked out by Costa. He is also dropping from featherweight to bantamweight here.

Dan Ige's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Linear entries get timed by counters. This is the recurring theme. Pitbull dropped him in July 2025 timing his straight-line rushes with right hands. Bryce Mitchell in 2023 slid left and let Ige run past into nothing. Movsar Evloev walked him onto intercepting knees. Martinez counters and circles for a living, which is the exact profile that has beaten Ige repeatedly.
• Head drops on level changes. Costa read Ige lowering his level and back-kicked him in the head for the finish in February 2026. Recent KO loss, and it came off a spinning attack against a predictable head position.
• Cardio has cracked in recent fights. Against Murphy his usually reliable gas tank emptied as Murphy managed distance. That drop to bantamweight, on top of age and a fresh knockout loss, raises real questions about how he holds up.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a bad stylistic draw for Ige. Martinez is a fast, precise counter-striker who circles off after combinations, and Ige's whole history says he struggles against exactly that.

• Martinez's counter-and-circle beats Ige's straight-line rushes. When Ige charges, he charges in a line, then weaves. Lopes grabbed the head and kneed him, Mitchell made him run past, Evloev fed him knees. Martinez's step-back right hand, the one that dropped Oliveira, is tailor made to catch Ige coming in.
• Martinez's low kicks punish Ige's planted stance. Ige plants his lead foot to generate power and eats calf kicks (Woodson tagged him early). Martinez's leg attack disrupts that base before Ige can load up.
• Ige's power is his one path. If Ige can trap Martinez on the fence, limit the lateral movement, and land the lead hook-straight right, he can capitalize on Martinez's open chin question. That is the Vera late-round blueprint. But Ige has struggled to sustain cage-cutting pressure, and he tends to relieve pressure and reset, which lets movers like Martinez breathe.

The Mitchell and Evloev fights are the clearest comps. Mobile fighters who make Ige miss on his entries and counter him have consistently outpointed him.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Martinez should establish speed and low kicks quickly, mirroring how he jumped to 19-5 on Vera in Round 1. Expect him to counter Ige's first rushes and circle. Ige is dangerous early with his power, so Martinez must respect the overhand right on the entries.
• Mid-fight: If Ige adjusts to pressure Martinez against the fence, as he did in Round 3 against Diego Lopes, this gets competitive. Martinez's answer historically is a takedown to reset, exactly what he did after eating Vera's head kick.
• Late rounds: This is the swing zone. Martinez fades, and Ige has power, but Ige's own cardio cracked against Murphy and he was just knocked out by Costa. Whoever's tank holds decides the last five minutes. Martinez's movement and takedowns give him more ways to bank rounds safely.

Analysis and Key Points

• Martinez's counter right hand vs Ige's linear entries is the defining clash. Pitbull, Mitchell, and Evloev all exploited those entries. Martinez is faster and sharper than all three.
• Martinez's low kicks attack the planted stance that got Ige tagged by Woodson.
• Ige's power and fence pressure are his only real path, echoing how Vera hurt Martinez late. But Ige rarely sustains that pressure.
• Two red flags on Ige: he was just knocked out by Costa (February 2026), and he is dropping to bantamweight. Recent KO plus a weight cut is a warning sign.
• Red flag on Martinez: the chin wobble against Vera means Ige is never truly out of it if he lands clean.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Martinez with a modest score of 18, and the SHAP breakdown shows a tight but clear lean:

• Odds pushed the score up the most, by 19 points, reflecting Martinez as a heavy -380 favorite.
• Significant striking impact differential added 4, and recent significant striking impact differential added 2, both rewarding Martinez's sharper, more damaging output.
• Striking defense percentage and recent significant striking defense percentage each added 2, backing Martinez's cleaner defensive numbers.
• Striking impact differential and significant striking output differential each added 1.
• On the other side, TrueSkill knocked 4 points off, since Ige's long resume against elite featherweights gives him the higher skill rating. Average striking output differential and reach each trimmed 1, with Ige holding the reach edge at 71 to 67.

The net is a confident but not blowout lean toward Martinez.

Past Model Performance

The model has been sharp on Ige lately, and mostly against him. It correctly called Costa to knock him out, correctly picked Murphy and Mitchell over him, and correctly tabbed Evloev. Its misses came when it backed Ige himself, wrong on the Pitbull and Woodson picks. In short, the model reads Ige's decline well and has been burned mainly when trusting him to win.

On Martinez, the record is thin. It correctly called his win over Vera at 0.72. Note the one flagged Martinez entry actually logs a Font pick that missed, so the sample is small and slightly muddy. Limited history on Martinez means a touch more uncertainty, but the Ige-side accuracy props up the confidence here.

Conclusion

Martinez is the faster, sharper, and more defensively sound fighter, and Ige's biggest weakness, getting timed and countered on straight-line entries, is exactly what Martinez does best. Add a fresh knockout loss and a weight cut for Ige, and the lean is clear. WolfTicketsAI takes David Martinez to win, most likely by decision built on counters, low kicks, and timely takedowns. Ige's only real hope is landing the overhand on Martinez's questionable chin, so watch that window, but the smart money sits with Martinez.

Analysis: Tim Elliott vs Edgar Chairez

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Tim Elliott to Win

Score: 5
Odds:
Tim Elliott: +175
Edgar Chairez: -210

Tim Elliott's Breakdown

Elliott is one of the trickiest veterans the flyweight division has ever seen. His whole game runs on chaos. He dances, switches stances, and throws weird strikes to scramble an opponent's timing so they can't line up counters. Against Kai Asakura in August 2025, that arrhythmic movement made it impossible for Asakura to time his counter knees. Elliott never let him find a rhythm, then closed the show in Round 2 with a mounted guillotine, using the belly-drop pressure to force the panic before locking hands.

Here are his signature tools:

• Reactive takedowns off missed strikes. Against Victor Altamirano in June 2023, Elliott circled away from the southpaw's power left kick, let it whiff, then caught the leg and dumped him. He does not force shots, he waits for you to overcommit.
• Chained wrestling into submissions. Against Sumudaerji in December 2023, he hit the single leg with a run-the-pipe finish, worked into a cradle, then used elbows to the body to force a defensive reaction and open the arm triangle. He merges strikes and control to hunt finishes.
• Elite scramble escapes. Against Altamirano in Round 4, when he got flattened and lost his back, he rolled to the side with no feet, stood while defending the choke, and reversed. That switch escape is textbook modern grappling.

His technical evolution shows a more purposeful striker who uses movement to set up wrestling rather than striking for the sake of chaos. But the recent record is the real story. Elliott lost to Steve Erceg by decision in May 2026, and before the Asakura win he had dropped a submission to Mokaev in October 2023. He has been up and down.

Tim Elliott's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Submission losses off his own scrambles. This is the recurring nightmare. Figueiredo caught him in a guillotine in Round 1 back in 2019 when he shot a careless takedown. Mokaev finished him with an arm triangle in Round 3 in October 2023 after Elliott exposed his neck threatening a guillotine from half-guard bottom. Ben Nguyen took his back and choked him in 2017 after an ill-advised head-and-arm takedown. When Elliott forces bad positions, good grapplers make him pay.
• He gets hit on entries. Elliott absorbs clean shots when he changes levels. Against Sumudaerji he ate counter left hands drifting to the open side. Against Askarov in Round 1 he got stiffened by an overhand right that nearly ended it.
• No finishing pop against durable opponents. His top control lacks damage. He rode dominant position over Espinosa for three rounds without a finish, and struggled to hurt Ulanbekov despite winning key stats.

Edgar Chairez's Breakdown

Chairez is the Mexican flyweight riding real momentum. He is on a three-fight UFC win streak and carries a career finish rate that only recently cooled. His game has shifted from pure brawler to a sharp boxer with dangerous submission instincts off hurt opponents.

His signature tools:

• The jab as a disruptor. Against Felipe Bunes in February 2026 and Bruno Silva in June 2026, his jab controlled the range and broke up their offense. He simply could not miss it against Bunes, pumping it to head and body.
• Counter punching into instant submissions. Against Bruno Silva he timed an uppercut on a hesitant level change, dropped him, took the back, and finished with the rear naked choke. Against CJ Vergara in March 2025 he feinted a level change to hide a left hook, dropped him, then chained to a face crank. He hurts you standing, then strangles you.
• Dynamic spinning attacks. Against Bunes he closed rounds with spinning back fists, spinning elbows, a spinning back kick, and a flying knee. Against Joshua Van he nearly ended the fight with a spinning backfist when cornered.

His evolution is clear. The Tepito boxing camp sharpened his hands, and the Bunes decision proved he can grind out three rounds when the finish is not there. He owns a 71-inch reach, huge for the division.

Edgar Chairez's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Takedown defense against the cage. This is the glaring hole. Against Bunes in Round 1, Bunes tied him up on the fence, jumped to his back, and rode a standing body triangle for most of the round. Against Tatsuro Taira at catchweight in July 2023, Taira took him down repeatedly and controlled from top, neutralizing everything. Chairez's career takedown defense sits around 33 percent.
• Back control escapes. Once someone gets his back, he struggles to get out. Bunes held it nearly a full round. He only escaped late.
• He absorbs damage even when winning. Against Bunes in Round 3 he got bloodied walking into the jab. He absorbs over 3 head strikes per minute and defends under 48 percent of significant strikes. Van found his body work and made him tuck his elbow and stall.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a classic grappler-versus-striker puzzle, and Elliott's path is obvious. Chairez's worst nightmare is exactly what Elliott does best: cage wrestling and back control. Bunes, who is nowhere near Elliott's wrestling pedigree, jumped on Chairez's back and rode a body triangle for a full round. Taira drowned him with takedowns and top control. Elliott attempts nearly 8 takedowns per fight and defends over 68 percent. If he plants Chairez on the mat and grinds, this looks a lot like the Taira fight.

But the danger cuts both ways. Chairez's counter game punishes exactly the sin Elliott commits over and over: careless entries. Chairez timed an uppercut on Silva's level change and a hook on Vergara's, then took their backs and choked them. That is the same recipe Figueiredo and Nguyen used to submit Elliott. If Elliott shoots sloppy and exposes his neck, Chairez has the boxing timing and the submission chops to finish, and Elliott has been finished this exact way before.

The Altamirano fight is the blueprint for Elliott. Circle off the power side, avoid the clean counter, catch the kick or the overcommitment, and drag it down. Reactive wrestling beats a striker who wants to plant and counter.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Chairez wants space to work his jab and land counters. Elliott needs to close distance without eating the counter uppercut. Expect Elliott to feint, switch stances, and time Chairez's kicks or committed punches for reactive takedowns rather than blind shots.
• Mid-fight: If Elliott gets Chairez to the cage, the Bunes fight tells you what happens. Chairez gets controlled and gives up his back. Elliott's cardio is a weapon, and Chairez has looked hesitant and stalled in the middle of fights.
• Late rounds: Chairez is dangerous late with spinning attacks even when tired, and Elliott has no finishing power to make him respect the exchanges. But if Elliott is winning the wrestling battle, he closes on the scorecards the way he did against Ulanbekov and Espinosa.

Analysis and Key Points

• Elliott's reactive takedowns vs Chairez's committed striking. Chairez overcommits on counters. Elliott catches overcommitters, as he did with Altamirano's whiffed kick.
• Chairez's counter-uppercut-to-back-take is a live finishing threat. He beat Silva and Vergara this way, and Elliott has been submitted off his own bad shots by Figueiredo, Mokaev, and Nguyen.
• Cage wrestling is the swing factor. Bunes and Taira both exposed Chairez's fence defense and back escapes. Elliott is a better wrestler than both.
• Neither man is a heavy hitter here. Elliott has no finishing pop, so this likely goes deep unless someone gets caught in a scramble.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds decreased the model's score by 6, reflecting that Chairez is the betting favorite at -210.
• striking_impact_differential increased the score by 6, Elliott's career striking differential is strongly positive while Chairez's is negative.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight increased the score by 5, Elliott's wrestling volume against a fighter who cannot stop takedowns.
• recent_striking_impact_differential added 3, and striking_defense_percentage plus recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage each added 2.
• recent_win_perc decreased the score by 2, since Chairez is on a hot streak while Elliott has been inconsistent.
• win_streak_diff knocked off 1 and reach knocked off 1, Chairez owns the streak and the 5-inch reach edge.

The takedown volume and striking differential features outweighed the odds and reach disadvantages, landing on a modest lean to Elliott.

Past Model Performance

The model has struggled badly with Elliott. It has been wrong on his last several fights, including the Asakura win, the Sumudaerji win, and the Erceg loss. That is a real caution flag, Elliott's chaos makes him hard to predict. On Chairez the model has been sharp, correct on Bunes, Vergara, Van, and Lacerda, missing only the overturned Lacerda bout. That accuracy on Chairez slightly undercuts confidence in a pick against him.

Conclusion

The stylistic logic is clean even if the model's Elliott history is shaky. Chairez cannot stop takedowns and gives up his back to lesser wrestlers, and Elliott is a grinder who attempts eight takedowns a fight with elite scramble control. The clear danger is Elliott's habit of getting submitted off his own careless entries, and Chairez is precisely the counter-and-choke fighter who exploits that. But if Elliott wrestles smart and avoids the neck exposure that cost him against Figueiredo and Mokaev, he drags Chairez into deep water and wins the grind. WolfTicketsAI backs Tim Elliott.

Analysis: Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Ignacio Bahamondes to Win

Score: 27
Odds:
Ignacio Bahamondes: -550
Muslim Salikhov: +400

Ignacio Bahamondes's Breakdown

Bahamondes is a towering 6'3" striker with a 75-inch reach who fights out of a dynamic, kick-heavy style. This is his welterweight debut, moving up from lightweight where the weight cut had become brutal. That size at 170 should feel more natural, but you need to watch how he carries the extra weight.

His signature weapons stack up nicely on paper:

• Counter left and pattern reading: Against Manuel Torres in September 2024, Bahamondes decoded a southpaw lunge pattern, tested a glancing counter mid-round one, then dropped Torres with the same read moments later for the finish. This is his best trait, elite mid-fight adjustment. He does the same thing to fighters who repeat techniques.
• Head kick off the jab: The Christos Giagos KO in April 2024 was a masterclass. He fed Giagos jabs all fight, then feinted the jab to raise the guard and cracked him with a head kick. He hides kicks behind punches better than most.
• Opportunistic guard and triangle game: Against Jalin Turner in March 2025, he pulled guard off a takedown and locked a triangle in round one, controlling posture with an underhook while angling his hips. His BJJ off his back is real, not just survival.

His technical evolution shows more boxing layering, the 1-1-2 into body kick sequences he used against Trey Ogden, and purposeful stance switching rather than random movement.

Ignacio Bahamondes's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Takedown defense against the cage: This is the glaring hole. Against Tofiq Musayev in March 2026, he got pressed to the fence and taken down three times, controlled and cut open in rounds two and three. His recent takedown defense sits around 35%, and that is a real problem.
• Struggles versus counter strikers who deny range: Against Rafael Fiziev in June 2025, he landed just 34% of significant strikes and was outworked all three rounds. Fiziev waited, countered, and Bahamondes never found his rhythm. When the range gets denied, he presses and gets sloppy.
• Chin high on the reset: A recurring flaw noted from the Makdessi and Rongzhu fights. He resets with his chin up after combinations and leans back rather than moving laterally when pressured. Salikhov's counter right hand lives in exactly that window.

When his primary gameplan fails, Bahamondes tends to shift to wrestling as Plan B, but it is ineffective. Against Fiziev he shot takedowns and got stuffed on all of them. He does not have a reliable fallback when his striking gets neutralized.

Muslim Salikhov's Breakdown

Salikhov, the "King of Kung Fu," is a 41-year-old Sanda specialist with brutal spinning attacks and elite counter timing. He is the naturally smaller man here at 5'9" with a 70-inch reach, giving up five inches of height and reach.

His signature tools:

• Spinning wheel kick: He is the first fighter in UFC history with two spinning wheel kick finishes. He starched Song Kenan in November 2024 with a clean heel to the chin and did similar damage to Andre Fialho in 2022. This is a live threat every second the fight stays standing.
• Counter right off the cage: Against Carlos Leal in July 2025, he backed to the fence, waited for Leal to lunge with a naked left, and countered with a right hand that landed as a collision. Textbook opposite-stance counter timing.
• Shoulder-fake and pull counter system: His whole game is built on baiting overcommitment, then punishing with low kicks or spinning attacks. It worked on Trinaldo and Staropoli over three rounds.

His evolution is a double-edged one. He now stands in the pocket more and trades, which makes him more dangerous per exchange but far more hittable overall than his matador years.

Muslim Salikhov's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Chin durability at 41: This is the big one. Salikhov was flattened by Uros Medic in just 63 seconds in November 2025, dropped by a single straight left he never saw. He was also KO'd by Li Jingliang in 2022 and Randy Brown in 2024. Three KO losses, and the reactions have clearly slowed.
• Rhythm needs time to build: His counter game requires reads and timing. Against Medic, aggressive early pressure never let him settle. Fighters who blitz early beat him before he gets going.
• Pressed to the fence with no offense there: His defense is distance-based. When his back hits the cage and he cannot reset, his shoulder fake and pull-back stop working. He has almost no offensive clinch game.

When his gameplan fails, Salikhov has no gear shift. He cannot wrestle offensively and has no clinch offense, so once his timing is stolen he gets overwhelmed, exactly what Medic did.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a classic length-and-volume striker versus aging counter-timer.

Bahamondes's tools that exploit Salikhov's gaps: - Volume and forward pressure early. Salikhov needs time to build reads. If Bahamondes walks him down behind the jab and kicks like he did to Giagos and Roberts, he can steal Salikhov's rhythm the same way Medic did. Salikhov is 41 and his reactions are gone against early pressure. - The head kick. Salikhov drops his guard chasing counters, which is exactly how he lost to Medic. Bahamondes hides head kicks behind punches beautifully. That is a finishing avenue.

Salikhov's tools that trouble Bahamondes: - The spinning wheel kick and counter right. Bahamondes resets with his chin high and leans back when pressured. That is the precise window Salikhov's counter right and spinning attacks target. The Makdessi fight showed Bahamondes gets caught countering on the reset. - Baiting the wrestling shot. If Bahamondes panics and shoots like he did against Fiziev, Salikhov's counters catch shots.

The Medic fight is the blueprint. A rangy, aggressive striker who pressures early beats this version of Salikhov before his timing kicks in. Bahamondes fits that mold, but with less pure boxing polish and more chin-high risk.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: The most dangerous phase for both. Salikhov is most vulnerable early before his reads set in, but he is also most likely to land a fight-ending spinning kick or counter in a fresh exchange. If Bahamondes presses smart behind his jab and kicks, he stacks points and threatens the finish. If he gets careless and resets chin-high, Salikhov ends it.
• Mid-fight: If it gets past round one, Bahamondes's size, output, and cardio edge grow. Salikhov fades in longer fights and has no wrestling to steal rounds. Bahamondes's 6.5 strikes per minute output should pull ahead.
• Late: Salikhov at 41 with a distance-based game against a longer, higher-volume man is a losing proposition on the cards. Bahamondes closes strong when he is ahead, as he showed rallying late against Musayev.

Analysis and Key Points

• Salikhov was just KO'd in 63 seconds. Per the heuristics, a recent KO loss means it can happen again. His chin at 41 is a liability against a rangy finisher.
• Bahamondes is the naturally bigger man now at welterweight, with a five-inch reach and height edge. His debut at 170 removes the brutal lightweight cut.
• Bahamondes's head kick vs Salikhov's guard-dropping is the cleanest finishing path, echoing the Giagos KO and Salikhov's Medic loss.
• The wrestling caution cuts both ways. Bahamondes gets taken down against the cage, but Salikhov is not a takedown-first fighter, so that hole matters less here than it did against Musayev.
• Watch the chin-high reset. Salikhov's counter right lives there. If Bahamondes stays disciplined, he wins comfortably.

Understanding the Prediction

The model lands on Bahamondes at a score of 27, and the features tell a clear story: - Odds moved the score up by 25.0, the dominant factor. The market has Bahamondes as a heavy -550 favorite, and the model leans on that. - significant_striking_impact_differential added 3.0 and recent_significant_striking_impact_differential added 2.0, reflecting Bahamondes's higher-impact striking numbers. - Reach added 2.0, backing his five-inch length advantage. - striking_impact_differential and significant_striking_output_differential each added 1.0. - recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage added 1.0. - On the other side, recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight shaved off 1.0 and striking_defense_percentage cut 1.0, reflecting Bahamondes's leaky defense and Salikhov's takedown volume.

Net, the odds and striking impact carry this pick. Note the final score of 27 is low, meaning the model likes Bahamondes but not with high confidence.

Past Model Performance

The model's track record with these two is a genuine caution. On Bahamondes it went 4-for-7, correctly calling the Turner, Torres, and Giagos finishes, but wrongly picking him over Fiziev and Klein, both losses where he got outworked. On Salikhov the model has been poor, missing on the Medic KO, the Leal fight, Ponzinibbio, Randy Brown, Dalby, and Li Jingliang. That is a lot of misses on Salikhov, which actually supports fading him again here. Combined with the low score of 27, treat this as a lean, not a lock.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI picks Ignacio Bahamondes, and the logic holds. He is the bigger, longer, higher-output man against a 41-year-old counter striker who just got starched in 63 seconds and needs time he may not get. Bahamondes's head kick and forward pressure match up perfectly against Salikhov's guard-dropping and slowed reactions. The risk is real though, Salikhov ends fights with one spinning kick or counter right, and Bahamondes resets with his chin high. Stay disciplined and Bahamondes wins on volume or by late stoppage. The pick is Bahamondes, but the low score of 27 tells you to respect Salikhov's puncher's chance.

Analysis: Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden Santos

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Yousri Belgaroui to Win

Score: 32
Odds:
Yousri Belgaroui: -850
Djorden Santos: +575

Yousri Belgaroui's Breakdown

Belgaroui is a former GLORY kickboxing title challenger who has brought that pedigree straight into the Octagon, and it shows. He's 2-0 in the UFC with two finishes, both stoppages of favored opponents, and he trains at Teixeira MMA alongside Alex Pereira. At 6'6" with a 79-inch reach, he's a nightmare puzzle for anyone who can't get inside.

His signature weapons:

• Calf kick behind the jab. Against Mansur Abdul-Malik in March 2026, Belgaroui methodically chopped the lead leg from Round 1, leaving the previously undefeated prospect flat-footed by Round 2. This same pattern showed up against Bekoev in his debut, where the low kicks bled the aggression out of his opponent over three rounds.

• Clinch knees off takedown defense. This is the killer sequence. When opponents shoot and fail, Belgaroui turns the exchange into offense. He finished Abdul-Malik in Round 3 with a knee to the head in the clinch after stuffing a takedown. Against Bekoev, he was slicing elbows from the clinch and even off his back whenever the wrestling came.

• Intercepting counter right hand. With his high guard and length, he times opponents charging in. He dropped Abdul-Malik with a straight right before the finishing knee, and punished Bekoev's wild overhands with sharper returns all night.

His technical evolution has been about grafting MMA scenarios onto elite striking. His takedown defense improved noticeably from debut to his second fight, and the way he now converts grappling scrambles into knees and elbows is what separates him from a pure kickboxer.

Yousri Belgaroui's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Concedes the clinch and gives up positions. Against Abdul-Malik, he allowed a takedown in Round 2 and briefly gave up his back. Against Bekoev, he was taken down multiple times, including late in Round 1. He always got back up, but a grappler who can hold him down changes the math. That said, Santos is not that wrestler.

• Cage positioning under pressure. Bekoev repeatedly walked him back to the fence, forcing him to circle out to reset range. A persistent pressure fighter can steal moments here.

• Eye poke history. He had a point deducted for repeated eye pokes on DWCS against Taiga Iwasaki. Not a fight-decider, but worth flagging in close bouts.

None of these three has been enough to finish him. He has never been stopped in his MMA career. All three of his losses came by decision.

Djorden Santos's Breakdown

Santos is a Brazilian volume striker with a grappling base who owns an 11-3 record but has struggled since arriving. He's lost 2 of his last 3 and is coming off a submission loss to Baisangur Susurkaev in May 2026. That's the most important warning here.

His signature traits:

• High-volume output. In his UFC debut against Ozzy Diaz at UFC 313, Santos landed 131 significant strikes, one of the highest debut totals in company history. He pumps the jab and stacks up numbers even when the mechanics aren't clean.

• Calf kicks and early jab. Against Diaz he opened Round 1 strong with heavy leg kicks and a long jab, taking the first frame 25-20 in significant strikes. He can start fast.

• Underused grappling. He's billed as a better grappler than striker, with most career wins by submission, but he rarely leans on it when he should. Against Diaz he stayed in a striking war he didn't need to.

His evolution has been a move to American Top Team after the Diaz loss, but the results haven't followed. The Susurkaev submission loss shows the grappling that's supposed to be his safety net can be turned against him.

Djorden Santos's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Cardio collapse and defensive decline. This is the big one. Against Diaz, Santos faded badly in Rounds 2 and 3. His defense fell apart in the final round, he ate a knee to the body, and nearly wilted. His striking defense percentage sits around 45%, which is porous. Belgaroui out-strikes people who slow down.

• Sloppy striking mechanics. Against Diaz his hooks looped from the side without full rotation. He lands volume but not impact. His striking impact differential is negative, meaning he gets tagged harder than he tags. Belgaroui hits far harder and more precisely.

• Struggles with reach and height. Diaz used a four-inch advantage to pick him apart in the later rounds. Santos never solved the range puzzle. Now he faces Belgaroui, who is even taller and rangier with a genuinely elite striking game. That's a nightmare replay.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a bad stylistic draw for Santos on paper.

• Belgaroui's calf kick and jab against Santos's forward pressure. Santos wants to march forward and pile up volume. That plays directly into Belgaroui's intercepting counters and leg kicks. Abdul-Malik and Bekoev both tried to press and both got chopped down and finished.

• Belgaroui's clinch knees against Santos's takedown attempts. If Santos does what he should and shoots, he's shooting into the exact scenario that finished Abdul-Malik. His takedown accuracy is only around 20%, so failed shots are likely, and failed shots against Belgaroui become knees and elbows.

• Santos's best path is early volume. His one real hope is starting fast like he did against Diaz and Bekoev, flooding Belgaroui before the range game settles in. But Belgaroui stayed composed against Bekoev's opening blitz and never lost his structure. The Diaz fight is the blueprint against Santos: weather the early output, then break him in the championship stretch.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Santos may find some success with early leg kicks and jab volume, the way he took Round 1 against Diaz. Belgaroui is patient and won't panic, using the jab and calf kicks to start measuring.

• Mid-fight adjustments: This is where Belgaroui pulls ahead. As Santos's mechanics get sloppier and his gas tank dips, Belgaroui's counters and clinch knees start landing clean. Both Bekoev and Abdul-Malik were visibly compromised by the end of Round 2 against him.

• Late rounds: Santos historically falls apart late. His defense declined sharply in Round 3 against Diaz. Belgaroui finished both his UFC fights in Round 3 against fading opponents. If this reaches the third, the finish threat is real.

Analysis and Key Points

• Reach and range rule this fight. Santos already failed to solve four inches against Diaz. Belgaroui offers more length and far cleaner striking.
• Failed takedowns feed the finish. Santos's 20% takedown accuracy plus Belgaroui's clinch knees off stuffed shots is the Abdul-Malik finish waiting to happen.
• Cardio is the fault line. Santos wilts late, Belgaroui closes hard. Both Belgaroui wins came in Round 3 against drained opponents.
• Recent form gap. Belgaroui is on a five-fight win streak with three TKOs. Santos has dropped 2 of his last 3, including a submission loss.
• Warning for Santos backers: He was just submitted by Susurkaev. Getting hurt or finished again is very much on the table here.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Belgaroui, and the SHAP features tell you why. Note the confidence score of 32 is modest, mostly because his heavy favorite odds cap the upside.

• Odds pushed the score up by 18, reflecting the -850 line on Belgaroui.
• significant_striking_impact_differential added 8, the clearest technical edge. Belgaroui hits with real impact while Santos's impact differential is negative.
• striking_impact_differential added 3 and recent_significant_striking_impact_differential added 2, reinforcing that Belgaroui does more damage.
• striking_defense_percentage added 2, since Belgaroui defends at 70% versus Santos around 45%.
• trueskill, significant_striking_output_differential, and recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage each added 1.

Every meaningful feature points the same direction: Belgaroui strikes harder, defends better, and is the safer bet.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a clean record on Belgaroui, correctly calling his Round 3 TKO of Abdul-Malik at 0.61. That's a vote of confidence.

On Santos the record is mixed. The model correctly saw him losing to Susurkaev, but it wrongly picked against his opponent path in the Barlow fight, where Santos actually won by decision. That miss is worth noting, since Santos has shown he can grind out volume wins the model didn't expect. It's the one crack in an otherwise clean case.

Conclusion

Everything lines up for Belgaroui. He's the taller, rangier, harder-hitting striker facing a man who already failed to solve reach against Diaz and just got submitted. Santos's forward volume walks into the exact counters and clinch knees that finished Abdul-Malik, and his late-round cardio dips right when Belgaroui closes the show. WolfTicketsAI backs Yousri Belgaroui, and the smart read is a Belgaroui finish in the later rounds.

Analysis: Drakkar Klose vs Tommy Gantt

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Tommy Gantt to Win

Score: 28
Odds:
Drakkar Klose: +375
Tommy Gantt: -500

Drakkar Klose's Breakdown

Klose is the known quantity here, a well-traveled lightweight with a deep UFC resume and 16 wins to his name. He's a pressure fighter who mixes wrestling fundamentals with sharp, accurate striking. His game runs on volume and precision. Against Rafa Garcia in 2022, he outlanded his man 61 to 34 in significant strikes while stuffing all three takedown attempts. That's the blueprint: pick apart the opponent standing, deny them the mat, and grind out the decision.

Signature techniques:

• Level change off the left hand. Fighting from a southpaw stance, Klose leads with power shots before dropping levels for the double leg, putting his head outside the lead leg. This showed up against Alvarez and throughout his wrestling-heavy wins.
• The slam finish. Against Joe Solecki in December 2023, Klose escaped an armbar attempt, picked Solecki up, and slammed him onto the side of his temple for a first-round knockout. Pure power and grappling awareness.
• Clinch control and dirty boxing. Against Brandon Jenkins in 2022, he worked an over-hook position along the fence, landing repeated right hands before dropping Jenkins with a hook and finishing in round two.

His recent form is mixed. He beat Edson Barboza by decision in August 2025 and Joaquim Silva before that, but he was stopped by Joel Alvarez via TKO in December 2024. That's a KO loss in his last three, and it matters.

Drakkar Klose's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Linear retreat under pressure. Against Alvarez (Rounds 1 and 3), Klose backed straight up to the fence rather than circling out. Alvarez cut off the cage, worked body jabs to lower the guard, then went high. Klose shells up instead of creating angles, and that got him finished.
• Dropping the lead hand on level changes. Alvarez slapped Klose's lead hand aside and fired a straight right down the pipe that stunned him. Klose exposes the centerline when he shoots.
• Counter vulnerability when aggressive. Beneil Dariush stopped Klose in 2020 after Klose hurt him but stayed in the pocket. Dariush switched momentum with a hook, then flattened him with a left hook. When Klose smells blood, he trades and eats counters.

Warning: Klose was KO'd by Joel Alvarez in December 2024. Fighters who have been recently stopped can be more susceptible to it happening again, especially against a heavier-handed, longer opponent.

Tommy Gantt's Breakdown

Gantt is the betting favorite at -500, and the numbers behind him are eye-popping. His takedown volume is off the charts, averaging over 32 attempts per fight with north of 11 landing. His takedown defense sits at a perfect 1.000 in the available data. He's a wrestler who smothers, drags fights to the mat, and piles up control time and ground strikes. His striking accuracy reads at 85%, though that's on low volume and a small sample.

Signature techniques (based on available data):

• High-volume chain wrestling. Gantt shoots relentlessly. With 32 attempts per fight, he wears opponents down with repeated entries until one sticks.
• Ground control and top pressure. Once he lands, he keeps opponents there, evidenced by his low strikes absorbed rate of 0.25 head strikes per minute.
• Length management. At 76 inches, he has a six-inch reach edge over Klose's 70, which helps his entries and his jab.

Major caveat: The record shows only one recognized UFC-level bout in the data (the Minev TKO win), and no fight insight transcript was available for him. His statistical profile is built on an extremely small sample, which inflates the peak-ratio numbers.

Tommy Gantt's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Unproven at this level. With effectively fewer than two fights of usable history, we do not know how Gantt handles a fighter who stuffs his shots. His entire game leans on the takedown landing.
• Striking defense is thin on paper. His striking defense percentage reads at just 0.15, meaning if this stays standing, there are open questions about whether he can defend Klose's volume.
• No knockdown or submission threat recorded. His finishing outside of accumulation is unproven, so a durable opponent could survive to deep water.

Warning: With fewer than two meaningful fights of data, this prediction carries more uncertainty than usual. The model is leaning heavily on odds and takedown metrics rather than a rich fight history.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a classic grappler-versus-wrestler-striker clash. Gantt wants the fight on the mat. Klose wants it standing where his accuracy and clinch work shine.

• Where Gantt exploits Klose: Klose's takedown defense is a middling 0.44, and his level-change habits leave him open. If Gantt shoots with the volume his numbers suggest, he can drag Klose down repeatedly the way Alvarez pressured him, but on the mat instead of the feet. Klose has shown he'll pull half-guard under fatigue, as he did against Alvarez in Round 2.
• Where Klose exploits Gantt: Klose stuffed every takedown from Rafa Garcia and Joaquim Silva. If his takedown defense holds the way it did there, Gantt has no proven Plan B. Klose's dirty boxing in the clinch, like the over-hooks he used on Jenkins, could punish Gantt's entries. And Klose's counter right down the middle is live if Gantt shoots sloppy.

The Teymur loss is a cautionary tale too: a disciplined opponent who managed distance and stood back up frustrated Klose. Gantt is not that kind of fighter, but the wrestling angle is the mirror threat here.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Gantt will look to shoot early and often. If Klose defends the first few entries the way he stuffed Garcia and Silva, he can start scoring with his southpaw left and clinch work. If Gantt lands early, expect control time to pile up.
• Mid-fight: This is where Klose's cardio and accuracy matter. He's a strong three-round fighter who wore down Garcia and Silva late. But Gantt's relentless volume could sap Klose's legs and open the linear-retreat vulnerability.
• Late: If it's standing, Klose's experience and pace favor him down the stretch. If Gantt is stacking takedowns, the control time makes the cards hard to win.

Analysis and Key Points

• Klose's takedown defense is the swing factor. He stuffed all three attempts from both Garcia and Silva, but Gantt's volume is unlike anything Klose has faced on paper.
• Klose is coming off a KO loss to Alvarez. His linear retreat and lead-hand drop remain exploitable.
• Gantt's sample size is tiny. The model likes his odds and wrestling metrics, but there is little fight footage to confirm the profile.
• Klose's clinch dirty boxing (Jenkins over-hook sequence) could punish sloppy shot entries.
• Gantt's paper striking defense (0.15) is a real question mark if Klose keeps it upright.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on a low score of 28, and the SHAP breakdown shows why it's not more lopsided:

• Odds decreased the score by 16, the single biggest factor. The market has Gantt as a heavy -500 favorite, and that weighs hard toward him.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight decreased the score by 6, reflecting Gantt's enormous wrestling volume.
• trueskill decreased the score by 2, and recent_win_perc decreased it by 2, both nudging toward Gantt.
• average_striking_output_differential and reach each shaved off 1, with Gantt's six-inch reach edge factoring in.
• On the other side, striking_defense_percentage added 3 and recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage added 2 back toward Klose, reflecting his cleaner defensive striking numbers.

Net, the wrestling volume and odds outweigh Klose's defensive striking edge.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong track record on Klose, going correct on five of six recent calls, including the Alvarez KO and the Solecki finish. The one miss was the Barboza fight, where it picked Barboza and Klose won the decision. That's a reminder Klose can outperform the model when he's dialed in.

For Gantt, there is no prediction history at all. That's a blind spot. The model has never called a Gantt fight, so its read on him rests entirely on thin stats and market odds.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI sides with Tommy Gantt, and the wrestling volume plus the -500 market backing drive that call. Gantt's relentless shot rate is the kind of pressure that has troubled Klose before, and his reach edge helps. But understand the risks: Klose has stuffed takedowns cleanly against wrestlers like Garcia and Silva, he's the far more proven fighter, and Gantt's profile rests on a sample so small the model itself only lands at a score of 28. Take Gantt as the pick, but with clear eyes on the uncertainty baked in.

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Analysis: Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Rafa Garcia to Win

Score: 0
Odds:
Rafa Garcia: +165
Rongzhu: -200

Rafa Garcia's Breakdown

Rafa Garcia is the grinder of this matchup. He's a Mexican pressure fighter with a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu base and a chain-wrestling game that has become the backbone of his UFC success. And right now he's riding a hot streak, winning his last four straight with a recent win percentage of 100%. The model loves that momentum.

His signature weapons:

• Chain wrestling off caught kicks and cage entries. Against Vinc Pichel in March 2025, Garcia caught kicks and mixed in a back body lock, then dumped Pichel after the veteran threw an ill-advised spinning elbow. Against Maheshate in 2022, he neutralized a bigger man by repeatedly hauling him down and controlling top position for a clear decision. His stat line backs this up: 3.22 takedowns per fight on 7.05 attempts. That volume is exactly the SHAP feature driving this pick.

• Cutting elbows when the boxing fades. The Jared Gordon TKO in September 2025 is the blueprint. Garcia started fast with the hands, then when his output dipped in Round 2 he switched to elbows that sliced Gordon open on the crown of the head. By Round 3 he was opening fresh cuts at will. That's a fighter who reads when his plan A is dying and pivots to plan B.

• Fundamental one-two boxing and pressure. Against Clay Guida in 2023, Garcia out-landed a high-volume veteran with clean, repeated one-twos, walking him down and winning the damage battle across three rounds.

The technical evolution here is clear. Early UFC Garcia was too aggressive and got picked apart by Haqparast and Gruetzemacher. Modern Garcia paces himself, hunts the body, and leans on wrestling to bank rounds. He's a smarter, more measured version of the fighter who lost three of his first four in the promotion.

Rafa Garcia's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Cardio and punch economy. This is the big one. In the Gordon fight, his punches "looked slowed down to 50%" from Round 2 onward. He faded against Gruetzemacher in 2021 after dropping him early, letting Chris recover and steal the fight. If Garcia can't finish or drag Rongzhu down early, his output cliff is real.

• Takedown defense. His takedown defense sits at just 29.6% (recent 32.8%). Garcia gets taken down. Against a fighter with knockout counters, being on the wrong end of a scramble is dangerous.

• Flared right elbow and overcommitment on entries. Against Drakkar Klose in 2022, Klose timed Garcia's dipping jab and landed counter right hands every time Garcia overcommitted. His right elbow flares out at 90 degrees before he punches, telegraphing the shot. Rongzhu is a sharp counter striker who will read this.

Rongzhu's Breakdown

Rongzhu is the betting favorite at -200 and the more polished pure striker. He's a Sanda-based technician with over 30 pro fights despite still being young. But his recent form is shakier than his record suggests. He's won three of his last five, and one of those losses was a brutal doctor's stoppage.

His signature weapons:

• Body jab into leaping left hook. Against Kody Steele in February 2025, Rongzhu used the body jab to draw Steele's right hand down, then swung the left hook around the outside. This was his most reliable weapon by the later rounds and it's a genuinely high-level sequence.

• Inside low kicks paired with the jab. He establishes range with lead-leg inside low kicks, chaining them off his jab. He landed these consistently against Steele to wear down the lead leg. His 0.63 leg kicks landed per minute reflect this.

• Counter right hands and combination knockdowns. Against Brandon Jenkins in 2021, he landed a four-piece combination capped by a counter right that dropped Jenkins, then followed with ground and pound for the finish. He carries real pop, evidenced by his 0.37 knockdowns per fight, well above Garcia's 0.10.

Technical evolution: Rongzhu has notably upgraded his takedown defense. Against Steele he rolled through an early takedown with an old-school headlock reminiscent of Oliveira on Kevin Lee, and his recent takedown defense jumped to 51.3% from a career 20%. That improvement matters enormously against a wrestler like Garcia.

Rongzhu's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Defensive jab positioning. This is the flaw that got him stopped. Against Chris Padilla in September 2024, Rongzhu extended his jab without shoulder protection and walked face-first into a fight-ending elbow that shut his eye. He shows his chin when he jabs. He was recently finished by strikes, and the same could happen again.

• Predictable, one-dimensional entries. Padilla timed Rongzhu because he marched forward on the same rhythm without feints or level changes. Garcia loves elbows in the pocket, exactly the range where Rongzhu got cracked.

• Body openings under the high guard. When Rongzhu shells into his "crazy monkey" high elbow defense, his midsection is wide open. Steele failed to punish it, but Garcia targets the body heavily in his combinations.

• Submission grappling on the mat. Both his UFC losses that ended in a finish came with grappling struggles. Bahamondes guillotined him off a failed takedown in 2022, and Vargas hunted a guillotine from guard. Garcia, a submission-first grappler with 0.40 subs per fight, will chase exactly these positions.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a classic grappler-versus-striker chess match, and the paths to victory are clear for both men.

How Garcia wins: He can't stand and trade with Rongzhu's cleaner boxing, so he has to make it ugly. Garcia should catch kicks, exactly how he took down Pichel and Vargas took down Rongzhu, and drag this to the mat. On the ground Garcia hunts the back and the choke, and Rongzhu's history against Bahamondes and Vargas shows his submission defense off failed scrambles is suspect. Garcia's cutting elbows in the clinch also punish Rongzhu's flawed pocket defense, the same gap Padilla exploited.

How Rongzhu wins: Keep it standing, feint to draw Garcia's telegraphed flared-elbow entries, and counter with the right hand the way Klose and Padilla did. If Rongzhu stuffs the early takedowns with his improved defense, Garcia's cardio cliff arrives and the fight becomes a striking clinic on a slowing target.

The pivotal variable is Rongzhu's takedown defense. It jumped to 51% recently, but against a dedicated chain wrestler attempting nearly eight takedowns a fight, even improved defense gets tested repeatedly.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Rongzhu is sharpest early, when his hands are fresh and his counters are crisp. Garcia will be at his most explosive too, pushing for takedowns off caught kicks. Expect Garcia to shoot early and often before his gas tank dips. Whoever wins the wrestling exchanges in Round 1 dictates the fight.

• Mid-fight: This is Garcia's danger zone and his opportunity. His boxing slows dramatically after Round 1, as seen against Gordon, but this is also when his elbows and grinding top control take over. If he's on top, he banks rounds. If he's standing with a faded jab, Rongzhu picks him apart like Klose did.

• Late: Rongzhu historically finds his rhythm late, as he did in Round 3 against Vargas. But if Garcia has been draining him with takedowns and cage work, Rongzhu's own output could sag too.

Analysis and Key Points

• Garcia's wrestling volume is the model's engine. Nearly eight takedown attempts per fight against a man with a career 20% takedown defense is the central mismatch.
• Rongzhu got KO'd via elbow in his last loss. His jab defense is a proven liability, and Garcia throws fight-changing elbows. Warning: a repeat stoppage is on the table.
• Garcia's cardio is the counterweight. He wilted against Gordon and Gruetzemacher. If he can't ground Rongzhu, he fades into counter range.
• Rongzhu's submission defense off scrambles is shaky. Bahamondes and Vargas both found guillotines. Garcia is a choke hunter.
• Rongzhu is 3-2 in his last five, a shakier recent trend than his record implies, while Garcia is 4-0 in his last four.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Garcia despite him being the betting underdog. The features that actually moved the needle:

• Odds decreased the score by 8, correctly reflecting that Rongzhu is the market favorite at -200.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight increased the score by 6, the single biggest positive driver. Garcia's relentless takedown volume against Rongzhu's leaky defense is why the model leans Garcia.
• recent_win_perc added 3, rewarding Garcia's four-fight streak.
• recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage added 2.
• trueskill decreased the score by 1, since Garcia's TrueSkill mu (28.0) is actually higher than Rongzhu's (19.9) but with different sigma weighting.
• Minor bumps came from striking_impact_differential, average_striking_output_differential, and striking_defense_percentage, each adding 1, while recent_striking_impact_differential subtracted 1.

The net result is a razor-thin verdict. The wrestling edge and win streak just barely overcome the odds and striking differentials pulling the other way.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong track record on Garcia, going correct on five of six recent calls, including the Hernandez, Pichel, Guida, and Maheshate wins. The lone miss was the Ronson fight, where the model favored the opponent and Garcia submitted him. That's a vote of confidence in backing Garcia here.

On Rongzhu, the sample is thinner and mixed. The model nailed the Hubbard prediction but was wrong on Bahamondes, where it favored Rongzhu at 0.70 and he got submitted in Round 3. That miss is a caution flag, since it came in exactly the kind of grappling scenario Garcia thrives in.

Conclusion

This is a coin-flip fight, and the model knows it, landing on a razor-thin score of 0. But WolfTicketsAI sides with Rafa Garcia, and the logic holds up. Rongzhu is the better pure striker with real knockout power, but his takedown defense and submission scrambles are the exact holes Garcia's game is built to exploit. If Garcia gets this to the mat early, before his cardio dips, he grinds out the decision or finds the choke. Back Rafa Garcia.