UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld

Analysis: Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Quillan Salkilld to Win

Score: 8
Odds:
Mateusz Gamrot: +120
Quillan Salkilld: -145

Mateusz Gamrot's Breakdown

Gamrot is the grizzled vet here, one of the best pure wrestlers the lightweight division has ever seen. His whole game runs through the level change. Against Esteban Ribovics in April 2026 he showed the blueprint at its cleanest, catching an inside low kick in Round 1 and riding top position for the rest of the frame, then countering a shift punch combo in Round 2 by dropping under the punches and taking the hips even with his own back on the fence. That fight ended with a rare arm triangle finish, which hints his top-position submission game is finally catching up to his control.

His signature weapons:

• Reactive level change off strikes. Gamrot turns your offense into his takedown. He timed RDA's planted-feet combinations in 2024 to shoot, and he did the same against Ribovics off the inside low kick. If you throw carelessly, you end up on your back.
• Chain wrestling and cage entries. Against Ludovit Klein at UFC Vegas 107 he landed six takedowns on a guy carrying 95 percent takedown defense. He hit a single leg early, a high crotch late in Round 3, and rode Klein like glue when the Slovak tried to stand.
• Elite cardio and pressure. Gamrot keeps the same pace in Round 5 he shows in Round 1, as he proved over 25 minutes against Tsarukyan.

His evolution has been slow but real. He added calf kicks against Turner, extended combinations against Hooker, and that arm triangle against Ribovics. But the core remains wrestle-first.

Mateusz Gamrot's Technical Vulnerabilities

• No power and pushes his punches. This is the big one. Against Oliveira in October 2025 the analysis was blunt: he "pushes, not punches." His clean shots do not deter forward pressure. Salkilld is a knockout artist who walks through resistance, and shots that fail to hurt him will not slow the freight train.
• Chin questions when pressured. Dariush dropped him with a left hand late in Round 3 in 2022. Klein hurt him with a knee in Round 3 and buzzed him early in Round 1. Tsarukyan dropped him with a spinning backfist. He gets hit a lot, absorbing 3.22 significant strikes per minute, and that is a scary stat against a one-shot finisher.
• Guillotine and choke exposure off single legs. Hooker repeatedly threatened front guillotines when Gamrot shot head-outside. Oliveira took his back against the cage and finished by RNC in Round 2 because Gamrot posts on one hand and only defends with the other. Salkilld just choked out a 15-year vet in Jamie Mullarkey off a scramble.

When his wrestling stalls, Gamrot doubles down rather than adjusting his striking. That predictability is what got him picked apart by Dariush and Kutateladze.

Quillan Salkilld's Breakdown

Salkilld is the young Australian wrecking ball, 4-0 in the UFC with three finishes and a growing rep as one of the scariest finishers at 155. But do not sleep on his grappling roots, he was a grappler before he was a striker, and he holds a BJJ black belt.

His signature weapons:

• Multi-level kicking into the head kick KO. Against Nasrat Haqparast at UFC 321 he set the trap perfectly, teeps and body kicks early to lower the guard, then the first high kick of the night landed flush on the temple for a Round 1 KO so hard he broke his own foot. That is fight-ending power.
• Clinch-exit right hand. He turned out of a clinch with a right hand and finished Beneil Dariush in Round 1 in May 2026. He punches on the way out of exchanges.
• Scramble reversals to the back. Against Mullarkey he shot a double leg, then when Mullarkey tried to wrestle back Salkilld hit an athletic throw straight to back control and locked the RNC in Round 1. He also defended Dariush's takedowns while keeping the fight where he wanted it.

His evolution has been quick. He debuted with a 19-second KO of Anshul Jubli, banked a decision over Ashmouz, then stacked the Haqparast head kick, the Mullarkey submission, and the Dariush knockout. He is showing more layers every fight.

Quillan Salkilld's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Suspect striking defense. His numbers are ugly here, 38.8 percent striking defense and only 47.6 percent significant strike defense. Dariush flash-dropped him in the very first exchange in May 2026 with a left high kick to left straight. He gets hit, and against a high-volume pressure fighter that could pile up.
• Wrestling defense untested against elite level. Mullarkey scored a brief takedown before Salkilld reversed. His takedown defense sits around 33 to 55 percent depending on the sample, and he has never faced a wrestler close to Gamrot's caliber. This is the whole fight.
• Telegraphed takedown entries. His own shots come from too far out, which Haqparast stuffed easily. Not a concern for his defense, but it shows his wrestling is more athletic than refined.

When Salkilld faces adversity he tends to stay composed and hunt the finish, as he did after getting dropped by Dariush and coming right back to KO him.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is the classic elite wrestler versus knockout striker, and the wrinkle is that Salkilld can grapple too.

What Gamrot can exploit: Salkilld's 38.8 percent striking defense and untested takedown defense. If Gamrot can time Salkilld's kicks the way he caught Ribovics' inside low kick and Hooker's front kicks, he drags this into deep water where his cardio and top control dominate. Salkilld throws a lot of kicks, and every kick is a takedown invitation for a man like Gamrot.

What Salkilld can exploit: Gamrot's lack of power and his willingness to eat shots. Gamrot absorbs 3.22 significant strikes per minute and gets buzzed when pressured. Salkilld's head kick trap is exactly the kind of thing that ends nights, and Gamrot has been dropped by Dariush, Klein, and Tsarukyan. Worse, Salkilld's scramble game and RNC hunting mirror how Oliveira finished Gamrot off a single-leg exchange. If Gamrot shoots sloppy and gives up his back, Salkilld can choke him just like he did Mullarkey.

The Haqparast fight is the cautionary tale for Gamrot. Salkilld conditions you to guard low, then kills you high. Gamrot's habit of pushing forward behind powerless combinations plays right into that.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Danger zone for Gamrot. Salkilld's best moments are early, the 19-second Jubli KO, the Haqparast head kick at 2:30 of Round 1, the Mullarkey sub at 3:02 of Round 1, the Dariush finish in Round 1. If Gamrot rushes in without setting up his shots, he can get clipped. Expect Gamrot to be measured and look for a caught kick or a reactive shot.
• Mid-fight: If Gamrot survives the opening exchanges and starts landing takedowns, the tide turns. Klein could not create space once Gamrot got on top, and Salkilld has never had his defensive wrestling tested by a five-takedown-per-fight machine.
• Championship rounds: Gamrot's territory if it gets there. Salkilld has one decision on his record and has never been in deep water against elite cardio. Gamrot went 25 hard minutes with Tsarukyan without fading. The longer this goes, the more it favors the Pole.

Analysis and Key Points

• Gamrot's wrestling is the great equalizer, and Salkilld's takedown defense has never faced anything like the man who took Klein down six times through 95 percent TDD.
• Salkilld's power is real and Gamrot's chin is a question. Dariush, Klein, and Tsarukyan all buzzed or dropped Gamrot. Salkilld hits harder than any of them.
• The choke threat cuts both ways. Oliveira submitted Gamrot off a scramble, and Salkilld just submitted a 15-year vet the same way. Gamrot's back defense against the cage is a documented hole.
• Gamrot pushes his punches and cannot deter forward pressure, exactly the flaw Oliveira exploited.
• Salkilld gets hit a lot too, but he only needs one, while Gamrot needs to land 15 minutes of volume with no pop.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Salkilld with a confidence of 8. Here is what moved the needle:

• striking_defense_percentage increased the score by 3, the single biggest positive. Salkilld's striking metrics and finishing threat outweigh Gamrot's defensive holes.
• odds added 2, matching the market read of Salkilld as the -145 favorite.
• striking_impact_differential and average_striking_output_differential each added 1, reflecting Salkilld's massive edge in damage output.
• Working against Salkilld: recent_win_perc dropped the score by 3 (Gamrot's recent activity), trueskill by 2 (Gamrot's long track record versus Salkilld's high uncertainty), and recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight by 2 (Gamrot's relentless wrestling volume is a real threat the model respects).
• Smaller negatives came from reach, win_streak_diff, and the recent striking differentials.

The net still points firmly to Salkilld, but the model clearly sees Gamrot's wrestling as the live path to an upset.

Past Model Performance

The model has a strong read on Salkilld, going 3-for-3 when picking him, correctly calling the Mullarkey submission and the Dariush KO, both in Round 1. Its only miss on him was picking against him versus Haqparast, and Salkilld proved everyone wrong with the head kick. That is a vote of confidence in this pick.

On Gamrot the record is mixed. The model nailed the Oliveira loss, the Klein win, and the RDA win, but whiffed on Hooker, Ribovics, Tsarukyan, and Dariush. Notably it has been too high on Gamrot against dangerous opponents before, which fits the pattern of picking against him here.

Warnings worth flagging: Salkilld has fewer than five UFC fights and a high TrueSkill sigma, so his ceiling is less certain than a veteran's. And Gamrot has been hurt or dropped in several recent bouts, so the KO risk against a finisher like Salkilld is very real.

Conclusion

Gamrot's wrestling is the one thing that can win this, and if he drags Salkilld into the championship rounds the story could flip. But WolfTicketsAI is backing the younger, more explosive Australian. Salkilld's finishing power, his underrated scramble and choke game, and Gamrot's documented habit of eating shots and giving up his back all point one way. Take Quillan Salkilld.

Analysis: Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Diego Ferreira to Win

Score: 7
Odds:
Diego Ferreira: -175
Billy Quarantillo: +145

Diego Ferreira's Breakdown

Ferreira is a Brazilian veteran who mixes a third-degree BJJ black belt with pressure striking and a switch-stance game. When he's on, he's dangerous everywhere. Look at his run of finishes to see it.

• Jab-to-overhand entry (KO threat): Against Michael Johnson in May 2023, Ferreira set the trap with a jab then dropped the overhand right as Johnson tried to counter off the kick. Johnson lowered his hands and Ferreira caught him clean for the KO. That same overhand ended his night.
• Clinch pressure into finishing shots: Against Mateusz Rebecki in 2024, Ferreira weathered early aggression, worked wrist control and elbows in the clinch, then broke Rebecki down with punches for a third-round TKO at 4:59. He wore the guy out and pounced.
• Back-take and RNC chain: Against Anthony Pettis in 2020, he blended jab-cross entries to close distance, took Pettis down, and locked the rear naked choke in round two. His scramble game and back-take against Aubin-Mercier in 2016 shows the same pattern, reverse the takedown, climb to the back, threaten the finish.

Technically, though, the recent version of Ferreira is trending down. He's lost three of his last four. The Rebecki KO is the lone bright spot in that stretch.

Diego Ferreira's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Walks onto counters with his stance-switch entries: This is the big one. Against Alexander Hernandez in September 2025, Ferreira stepped through on his pressure and Hernandez timed him, letting Ferreira collide with an elbow/forearm for the KO. His forward pressure only works when the other guy engages, and against a patient timer he feeds himself onto shots.
• Cardio and technical decay in later rounds: Against Grant Dawson in January 2025, Ferreira defended early with a strong whizzer and clean counter combos in round one, but by round three his stance went upright, hands dropped, and Dawson bodylocked him to the fence for the sealing takedown. His crisp counter combinations turn into single telegraphed shots when he tires.
• Defensive wrestling against persistent pressure: Dawson and Dariush both showed you can drive him to the cage, kill his counter-striking space, and grind him. Dariush caught him with a knee to the body then took top position in 2021.

Heuristic warning: Ferreira was just KO'd by Hernandez in his most recent fight. Fighters coming off a knockout can be more susceptible to the next one, and Quarantillo carries pop.

Billy Quarantillo's Breakdown

Quarantillo is a volume pressure fighter out of an orthodox stance. He smothers guys with jab output, clinch work, and a persistent grappling threat.

• Volume jab and pace: Against Cub Swanson in December 2024, he stacked jabs and pushed pace, early success came from confident output that kept opponents on the back foot.
• Counter left hook: When opponents overextend, Billy Q punishes on the return with the left hook. He clipped Swanson repeatedly on the way in before things turned. This is his best weapon against forward-charging fighters.
• Takedown volume and submission chains: He attempts a ton of takedowns (over 6 per fight) and owns 5 UFC submission wins, including the triangle on Jacob Kilburn in 2019 and relentless top pressure on Damon Jackson in 2023.

Recent form is a concern. He's lost three of his last four, including two straight, and is dropping down from featherweight for this lightweight bout.

Billy Quarantillo's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Predictable jab rhythm gets countered: This is his recurring flaw. Against Swanson, he fell into jab-jab-jab without level changes or fakes, and Swanson threw the right hand over the top, then followed with left hook-right straight for the knockdown and finish. The same pattern got him KO'd by Edson Barboza in 2023, who timed a knee/counter as Billy pressed in.
• Intercepting knees and counters halt his pressure: Youssef Zalal beat him in March 2024 by staying mobile, landing intercepting knees when Billy overcommitted, then submitting him. His forward march runs him onto interceptions.
• Top control leaks: When he does get takedowns, he struggles to hold position against active guards. Swanson threatened the back off octopus guard and scrambled free.

Heuristic warnings: Billy was KO'd in his most recent showing at 145 and is now moving up to lightweight. The weight change against a naturally bigger lightweight adds uncertainty.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a fascinating clash because both men are pressure fighters who get countered when they overcommit. The question is who plays counter-striker and who plays aggressor.

• Ferreira's edge: His jab-to-overhand right is exactly the punch that has hurt Billy before. Swanson's right hand over the top and Barboza's counters both dropped Quarantillo when he settled into his jab rhythm. Ferreira lands his best work countering fighters who press him, and Billy presses. If Ferreira plays patient and times the overhand as Billy jabs in, this looks a lot like the Swanson finish.
• Billy's problem for Ferreira: Volume and pace. If Billy keeps output high and mixes in level changes rather than pure jabbing, he can push Ferreira into the later-round decay we saw against Dawson. Billy's counter left hook is also a real threat against Ferreira's stance-switch entries, the same way Hernandez's elbow was.
• Historical parallel: The Barboza and Swanson fights are the blueprint. Both patient counter-strikers let Billy walk onto shots. Ferreira has the overhand and the timing to do the same, provided he keeps his own entries disciplined.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Expect both to press. Ferreira's danger window is highest here, fresh, sharp, and hunting the counter overhand as Billy establishes his jab. Round one is where Ferreira has finished Johnson-type openings.
• Mid-fight: If Ferreira doesn't land the big shot, Billy's volume math takes over. His pace against Jackson and Burgos shows he can bank rounds by output. Ferreira's counter combinations start shortening.
• Late rounds: Cardio favors the higher-pace fighter historically, but Ferreira has shown solid gas in wins like Taisumov. Still, the Dawson fight is the warning, upright stance and dropped hands by round three. If it goes long, Billy's grappling volume could steal it.

Analysis and Key Points

• Ferreira's overhand right is the fight-ender. It KO'd Johnson and it's the exact punch that dropped Billy against Swanson.
• Billy's jab rhythm is a liability against a counter-puncher. Barboza and Swanson both timed it. Ferreira can too.
• Both are coming off KO losses. This raises finish potential on either side.
• Weight class jump for Billy. Moving up to lightweight against a career lightweight is a real physical concern.
• Recent form is shaky for both, each 1-3 in their last four, so this is a bounce-back bout for both men.

Understanding the Prediction

The SHAP data explains the lean toward Ferreira:

• Odds were the biggest driver, pushing the score up by 7.0. Ferreira as the -175 favorite carries the market's confidence.
• recent_win_perc added 3.0 despite both sitting at similar recent marks.
• striking_defense_percentage and the striking impact differentials (significant_striking_impact_differential, recent_significant_striking_impact_differential, recent_striking_impact_differential, significant_striking_output_differential) each added around 1.0, reflecting Ferreira's impact edge.
• reach added 1.0, Ferreira's 74 inches versus Billy's 70 is a real span advantage.
• recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage added 1.0.
• Working against Ferreira: trueskill dropped the score by 2.0 (Billy isn't far behind on skill rating), while average_striking_output_differential, recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight, and recent_significant_striking_output_differential each shaved off 1.0, Billy's higher output and takedown volume pull back the confidence.

The net lands at a solid 7.

Past Model Performance

The model's record on these two is a caution flag. On Ferreira, WolfTicketsAI has been mixed, it correctly called the Hernandez and Dawson losses but was wrong picking against him in the Rebecki and Johnson fights, both of which Ferreira won by KO. So the model has underrated Ferreira's finishing power before.

On Quarantillo, the model has repeatedly overrated him, wrong on Swanson, Zalal, and Barboza, all predicted Billy wins that ended in losses. That's three misses in favor of Billy that didn't pan out. This history actually supports fading Quarantillo here, since the model's optimism about him has been punished lately.

Conclusion

Ferreira has the reach, the counter overhand, and the exact stylistic key that has unlocked Quarantillo before. Billy's predictable jab rhythm and habit of walking onto counters line up badly with Ferreira's best finishing sequence, and the move up to lightweight only widens the physical gap. WolfTicketsAI backs Diego Ferreira, and the blueprint set by Barboza and Swanson says the pick is sound.

Analysis: Darren Elkins vs Yadier del Valle

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Yadier del Valle to Win

Score: 12
Odds:
Darren Elkins: +550
Yadier del Valle: -800

Darren Elkins's Breakdown

You know exactly what you get with "The Damage." Elkins is a blue-collar grinder who lives on wrestling, cardio, and a chin that has absorbed more punishment than any sane man's should. His whole game runs on relentless pressure, chain wrestling, and the willingness to walk through fire to plant you on your back.

His signature tools:

• Chained wrestling into strikes: Against Tristan Connelly in 2022, Elkins showed his best trick, posting into Connelly's shoulders to unweight the lead leg, then when Connelly squared up, firing two uppercuts before dropping for a double leg. That striking-to-takedown chain is his bread and butter.
• Grinding top control and rear-naked choke hunting: He submitted Michael Johnson with an RNC in Round 2 back in 2018 by dragging a striker into deep water. He did the same against Garagorri and TJ Brown, using top pressure to open the neck.
• Defensive guillotine escapes: Against Daniel Pineda in 2024, Elkins put on a clinic escaping guillotines from a man with a 100 percent featherweight finish rate. He shifts his hips out, creates space, and works back to top. That defensive grappling IQ is real.

Technical evolution wise, the TJ Brown and Pineda wins showed a slightly more measured Elkins, managing distance and taking less damage. But that veteran polish only goes so far at 41 years old coming off a brutal KO.

Darren Elkins's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Stance switches and angles wreck his timing: Cub Swanson KO'd him in 2021 by going southpaw, doubling up left straights, then reversing direction so Elkins whiffed his counter, capped by a wheel kick to the bridge of the nose. Elkins is a stationary orthodox pressure fighter, and lateral movers pick him apart.
• Distance strikers who stuff takedowns: Jonathan Pearce in 2022 used footwork to keep Elkins at range and avoid the clinch entirely, cruising to a decision. Jeremy Stephens did the same with leg kicks back in 2014.
• Vulnerable to submissions off aggressive shots: Charles Oliveira caught him in a triangle-armbar in 41 seconds when Elkins shot in carelessly. Del Valle is a black belt who lives on exactly these scramble finishes.
• Recent KO warning: Elkins was just finished by Julian Erosa in April 2025 by first-round KO/TKO. When a durable veteran starts getting stopped early, the chin is gone. That is a flashing red light here.

Yadier del Valle's Breakdown

Del Valle is a 10-1 prospect with a judo brown belt from Cuba and a jiu-jitsu black belt under Ulpiano Malachias. He is everything Elkins historically struggles with: a slick grappler who finishes scrambles.

His signature tools:

• Scramble-to-back-take finishing: Against Isaac Dulgarian in November 2025, del Valle stuffed the head on the first takedown, then reversed the second attempt mid-scramble, took the back, locked a body triangle, softened him with strikes, and finished with an RNC at 3:41 of Round 1. That is elite transitional grappling.
• Leg-catch counter takedowns: Against Connor Matthews in May 2025, the southpaw baited a return kick, caught it in a two-forearm sandwich, drove Matthews to the cage, took the back, and finished with another RNC. Two straight first-round rear-naked chokes in the UFC.
• Overhook guard defense: Even in his loss, he showed competent bottom control with overhooks to smother ground-and-pound.

Technical evolution note: the Leavitt loss in February 2026 exposed real holes we will cover below. This is a prospect still filling gaps.

Yadier del Valle's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Telegraphed kicks get read and punished: Jordan Leavitt parried del Valle's opening front kick and turned it straight into a takedown in Round 1 of their February 2026 fight. His striking entries are predictable.
• Punch entries get slipped into clinch: Leavitt slipped inside del Valle's punches and hauled him into the clinch repeatedly. Del Valle struggled to defend takedowns from a savvy grappler.
• Can be controlled on bottom by top wrestlers: Leavitt kept him on his back for stretches. Elkins is a career top-control wrestler, so this matters, though Elkins lacks Leavitt's scramble discipline.
• Limited cardio and deep-water data: Every UFC win ended in Round 1. The one time he went 15 minutes, he lost a clear decision. That is a genuine question mark against a cardio machine like Elkins.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a classic grappler-versus-grinder clash, but the specific reads matter.

Which del Valle techniques exploit Elkins? The scramble game is the obvious one. Elkins shoots high-volume takedowns (8.4 attempted per fight) and dives on chokes, exactly the aggressive entries that got him triangled by Oliveira. Every time Elkins commits to a shot or a neck, del Valle gets a chance to reverse and take the back. Del Valle's RNC finishes off scrambles are tailor-made for a man who wrestles forward without caution.

Which Elkins techniques trouble del Valle? Top control and volume. Leavitt showed the blueprint: don't play del Valle's kicking game, slip his entries, and drag him to the mat where he cannot create scrambles. If Elkins can smother del Valle against the cage and lean on him for 15 minutes, the prospect's unproven cardio and bottom-position passivity become liabilities. The Leavitt fight proves del Valle can be out-grinded.

The problem for Elkins is he isn't Leavitt. Leavitt is a disciplined positional wrestler who never gives up his back. Elkins is an aggressive scrambler who hunts chokes, which is precisely how del Valle feeds. Elkins's own history against slick BJJ, from Oliveira to the constant guillotine threats, says he plays with fire on the mat.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Del Valle is a fast starter who finishes in Round 1. Elkins is a notorious slow starter who builds momentum. That is a dangerous combination given Elkins was just KO'd early by Erosa. If del Valle catches a kick or reverses a shot in the first five minutes, this could be another quick RNC.
• Mid-fight: If Elkins survives the opening frame and imposes top control, the fight tilts toward his grind. Del Valle has never shown he can win a war of attrition, and the Leavitt decision loss says he fades when he can't finish early.
• Late rounds: Cardio favors Elkins heavily on paper. But at 41 and coming off a KO, banking on Elkins to survive into deep water against a finisher is a gamble.

Analysis and Key Points

• Del Valle's scramble finishes clash directly with Elkins's reckless entries. Oliveira armbarred Elkins in 41 seconds off exactly this pattern.
• Elkins was just KO'd by Julian Erosa in Round 1 (April 2025). The durability that defined his career may be gone.
• Elkins loves the RNC and top control, but del Valle counters both by taking the back off reversals, as he did to Dulgarian and Matthews.
• Del Valle's blueprint loss to Leavitt shows a top wrestler can grind him out, but Elkins lacks Leavitt's positional discipline.
• Reach edge to Elkins (71 vs 69), but he has never been a range striker, so it means little here.
• Age and mileage: 41-year-old Elkins with a fresh KO loss versus a 10-1 finisher in his prime.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on del Valle but only by a modest margin (score of 12), and the SHAP breakdown tells you why it isn't a blowout number:

• Odds pulled the score down by 17, the single biggest factor. The market has del Valle at -800, and the model respects that heavily.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight pushed the score up by 5, reflecting the active wrestling in the profile.
• recent_win_perc added 3 in del Valle's favor.
• Smaller nudges: recent_significant_striking_impact_differential, significant_striking_output_differential, and reach each added 1, while trueskill, recent_striking_impact_differential, and striking_defense_percentage each subtracted 1.

The net is a lean toward del Valle driven mostly by the odds and his recent finishing form, with striking metrics and TrueSkill keeping it honest.

Past Model Performance

Mixed signals here. On Elkins, the model has been solid recently, correctly calling his win over Pineda, his loss to Pearce, and his KO loss to Erosa. That gives confidence in reading Elkins accurately.

On del Valle, the model has been wrong both times. It picked Dulgarian (del Valle won by sub) and it picked del Valle over Leavitt (del Valle lost). So the model has never once correctly called a del Valle fight. That is a real caution flag. Combined with del Valle having only three UFC fights, the sample is thin and the prediction carries more uncertainty than the odds suggest.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI backs Yadier del Valle, and the case is clear: Elkins is a 41-year-old grinder coming off a first-round KO, and his career-long habit of shooting recklessly and hunting chokes feeds directly into del Valle's best skill, the scramble-to-back-take RNC that folded both Matthews and Dulgarian in Round 1. Elkins's only path is to grind del Valle out the way Leavitt did, but he lacks the positional discipline to do it safely. Take del Valle to find the back and finish early.

Analysis: Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Alexia Thainara to Win

Score: 23
Odds:
Amanda Lemos: +210
Alexia Thainara: -260

Amanda Lemos's Breakdown

Lemos built her name on one of the scariest right hands in strawweight history. Go back to UFC Vegas 31 in 2021, where she starched Montserrat Ruiz in 35 seconds with a counter right hand as Ruiz bum-rushed forward. That is the Lemos blueprint: bait an aggressive opponent into range, plant her feet, and detonate. She did the same to Livinha Souza at UFC 259, scoring two knockdowns in a single round and finishing with a straight left from her southpaw look before closing with ground-and-pound.

Her three signature weapons:

• Counter right hand. Her money punch. It ended Ruiz and staggered Jandiroba with a clean uppercut in the standing exchanges of their 2024 bout. When you press forward carelessly, she makes you pay.
• Thai clinch knees and elbows. Against Mizuki in 2020, she latched the plum, dug knees to the body, and sliced an elbow that opened a cut in round three. She even powered out of a takedown and threw Mizuki to the mat, showing real strength in tight.
• Opportunistic guillotine. She caught Michelle Waterson coming up from her knees in a scramble in 2022 for the finish, and jumped guard into a guillotine attempt against Jandiroba early in round one.

But the technical evolution here is grim. Lemos has lost three of her last four. The Robertson loss in March 2026 saw her giving up her back repeatedly. The Suarez loss was a wrestling shutout. The Lucindo win was a dead fight where, per analysts, "both had significant time on top and did nothing with it." Her offensive output from top position has cratered, and she now coasts through long inactive stretches.

Amanda Lemos's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Takedown defense that collapses under pressure. This is the throughline of every loss. Zhang Weili took her down repeatedly in 2023, including a round-two body lock off Lemos swinging a wide right hand, dumping her straight to side control with no guard pass needed. The pre-fight scouting was explicit: her takedown defense drops as her gas tank empties.
• Back control surrender. Jandiroba took her back in round two 2024, locked a body triangle, and transitioned from RNC to armbar for the finish at 4:48. Robertson took her back "multiple times" in 2026. Against a grappler who chains position, Lemos gets buried.
• Overcommitment on the right hand. Zhang's camp did tape study specifically on this. Every wide right is a takedown invitation. When her power gameplan fails, Lemos becomes passive and defensive, exactly what happened against Suarez and in the Lucindo snoozer.

Alexia Thainara's Breakdown

Thainara is a 14-1 wrestler-grappler riding a 12-fight win streak and a perfect 3-0 in the UFC. She trains out of the Ribas Family gym and her whole game is built on chaining takedowns to top control to submissions.

Her three signature weapons:

• Kick-catch takedown. This is the key to the matchup. Against Loma Lookboonmee in 2025, she caught kicks and converted them to takedowns repeatedly, something Loma's prior opponents failed to do. She ran it again against Bruna Brasil in March 2026, catching a kick and hitting a perfectly timed inside trip.
• Can opener into submission chains. Against Molly McCann in 2025, she used the can opener from closed guard to force panicked armbar attempts, then passed to back control and finished with a rear-naked choke. She hunts the back with intent.
• Inside trip takedowns and clinch knees. Against Brasil she landed multiple inside trips and pressed her to the fence, digging knees to the body and thighs across all three rounds. Her takedown volume is absurd: over 9 attempts per fight, with elite accuracy.

Her technical evolution is upward. Against Brasil she came out "letting her hands go early" with kicks and boxing before shooting, showing she is not one-dimensional anymore.

Alexia Thainara's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Absorbs damage on entries. She developed a hematoma on her forehead walking into range against Brasil, and ate a spinning elbow and spinning kick late in round three. Against Lemos's power, those entries carry real risk.
• Allows scrambles and escapes. Brasil repeatedly scrambled back to her feet, forcing Thainara to re-shoot. If she gives Lemos space to reset on the feet, she is standing in front of a knockout artist.
• Unproven against full-sized power. Analysts flagged that her Loma win came partly from a huge size edge, and her level of competition, while improving, has not included anyone with Lemos's one-punch finishing ability. Her TrueSkill sigma of 8.33 reflects that uncertainty.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is power versus wrestling, and the history is brutal for Lemos. Every fighter who could chain takedowns and control her has beaten her: Zhang, Jandiroba, Andrade, Suarez, Robertson. Thainara is exactly that fighter, and arguably more takedown-heavy than any of them.

• Thainara's kick-catch and inside trips directly exploit Lemos's collapsing takedown defense. Lemos loves to throw leg kicks and the occasional high kick, precisely the strikes Thainara punishes. Remember Zhang cut-kicking Lemos to the floor in round one 2023. Thainara does that on purpose, every round.
• Lemos's counter right is her only real path. If she catches Thainara diving in, like she caught Ruiz, this ends fast. Thainara's willingness to eat shots on entries is the one crack Lemos can exploit.
• The back-take danger is enormous. Thainara finished McCann from the back and Jandiroba finished Lemos from the back. Same script available here.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Thainara will throw kicks to bait and shoot. Lemos is most dangerous here with fresh legs and her counter right. The first exchange where Thainara catches a kick is the pivotal moment. If Lemos lands clean first, she can flip the script early.
• Mid-fight: If Thainara gets her down, Lemos's known pattern is to work submissions and sweeps off her back (the ninja choke she threatened Zhang with, the toe hold against Jandiroba), but she rarely stops the control accumulation. Thainara's can opener and back-hunting take over.
• Championship rounds: Not applicable at three rounds, but Lemos's takedown defense historically worsens as she tires. Every past grappler capitalized late. Thainara's cardio and pressure only compound the problem.

Analysis and Key Points

• Lemos's puncher's chance is real but narrow. The Ruiz and Souza finishes prove she can end anyone if they walk in. That is why the model score sits at 23 rather than lower.
• Thainara's kick-catch takedown is the perfect key to Lemos's lock. Zhang showed the blueprint in 2023; Thainara does it more often.
• Lemos has lost 3 of her last 4 and looked passive and beatable in each grappling loss.
• Back control is the kill switch. Jandiroba and Robertson both got there. Thainara lives there.
• Warning: Lemos was not recently KO'd, but her losses show a fighter whose gameplan stops functioning the moment she is grounded.
• Thainara's inexperience against elite power is the only genuine caution on the favorite.

Understanding the Prediction

The model leans toward Thainara, and the SHAP data shows why:

• Odds moved the score the most, dropping it by 11 toward Thainara as the clear -260 favorite.
• significant_striking_impact_differential and striking_impact_differential each pulled the score down by 2, reflecting Lemos's negative differentials versus Thainara's strong positive numbers.
• recent_win_perc dropped it by 2, punishing Lemos's 33 percent recent form against Thainara's perfect recent run.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight dropped it by 2, a direct nod to Thainara's near-10 takedown attempts per fight against Lemos's leaky defense.
• trueskill and recent_significant_striking_impact_differential each shaved off 1 more.
• Small offsetting bumps came from win_streak_diff, recent_striking_impact_differential, and recent_average_striking_output_differential, but not enough to change the pick.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong read on Lemos, going 7-2 on her fights. It correctly called her losses to Zhang, Jandiroba, Suarez, and Robertson, all grappling-driven defeats, exactly the pattern in play here. Its two misses were the Lucindo upset and the Rodriguez KO. On Thainara, the model is a perfect 2-0, nailing both her UFC decision wins over Loma and Brasil. That combined record gives real confidence in a pick that aligns with the model's proven strength: spotting when a grappler drowns Lemos.

Conclusion

The tape does not lie. Every wrestler who chains takedowns and hunts Lemos's back has beaten her, and Thainara is the most takedown-active fighter she has faced yet. Lemos carries a live puncher's chance in the opening minutes, but the moment a kick gets caught and the fight hits the mat, the outcome writes itself. WolfTicketsAI backs Alexia Thainara to grind out the win.

Analysis: Billy Ray Goff vs Ty Miller

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Ty Miller to Win

Score: 22
Odds:
Billy Ray Goff: +310
Ty Miller: -400

Billy Ray Goff's Breakdown

Goff is a pressure-first welterweight who walks men down and looks to land power on the inside. His calling card is the right straight to the body. He starched Yusaku Kinoshita in August 2023 with a perfectly placed right to the solar plexus, thrown with a slight level change and full hip rotation that folded Kinoshita in half. That shot is his single most dangerous weapon, and it can end a night out of nowhere.

His signature techniques break down like this:

• Right straight to the body. The Kinoshita finish is the blueprint. Against Trey Waters in Round 2 he slipped inside the jab and dug the same right hand to the left side of the ribs, using it as a distance-closer against a taller man.
• Calf kick off the retreat. Goff steps into punching range, forces the retreat, then catches the back-stepping opponent with a calf kick. It creates a catch-22: eat the kick or stay in the pocket.
• Stance-switching entries. Against Waters he leaned on a "switch cross," stepping in with the right foot and firing the left to bypass Waters' elbow parry. This ambidextrous jabbing gives him unpredictable angles.

His technical evolution has been real. The Waters fight showed genuine mid-fight problem solving. Waters neutralized Goff's jab early with wing blocks and elbow parries, and rather than force it, Goff recalibrated, switched stances, went to the body, and eventually dropped Waters in Round 3 by threading a straight right under the raised parrying elbow. That is a fighter who reads patterns.

But the wheels came off in his last outing. Against Ramiz Brahimaj in May 2025 he was pressured to the fence early, taken down, and choked out in Round 1. That is a serious wobble on his ledger.

Billy Ray Goff's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Grappling under pressure. Brahimaj walked him to the cage patiently, shot, and took him down. In the scramble Goff dropped his hips and exposed his neck, and Brahimaj hit a power guillotine/ninja choke variation for the finish. This is a glaring, recent, and severe hole.
• Leans straight back when pressured. Against Waters he caught an overhand left clean because he leaned back with a high guard instead of moving his head laterally. Straight punches thread right through that guard.
• Absorbs heavy volume walking forward. Against Kinoshita he ate clean jabs and inside low kicks the entire fight because his head is a stationary target on the way in. He won anyway that night, but a sharper striker punishes that.

Heuristic warning: Goff was submitted in Round 1 in his most recent fight and has lost two of his last three. That is a downward trend, and his fence and neck defense are live liabilities.

Ty Miller's Breakdown

Miller is a Golden Gloves-bred boxer out of FIT-NHB in Albuquerque, long and rangy at 6'2" with a 77.5-inch reach. In his UFC debut at UFC 324 he dismantled the durable veteran Adam Fugitt, drilling the straight right into his chin for four and a half minutes before a buzzer-beating TKO with one second left in Round 1.

His signature techniques:

• Straight right hand. Against Fugitt this was money from the opening exchange, landing over and over against a southpaw. He landed 53 of 111 significant head strikes, a clinic in accuracy plus volume.
• High-volume jab as a cattle prod. He kept the jab pumping to set range and stack damage, using length to keep Fugitt at the end of his shots and out of grappling exchanges.
• Finishing instinct. When Fugitt rose on unsteady legs after the late knockdown, Miller swarmed with a check right hand and a knee to force the stoppage. He recognizes a hurt man and closes.

His whole approach was built on staying at range and refusing to grapple, which kept Fugitt's wrestling dead. That range discipline is the core of his game.

Ty Miller's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Defensive head movement. Analysis of the Fugitt fight flagged that his defensive striking still needs work. He absorbed body kicks and a back elbow that he admitted "left him spinning." Against a power puncher, that gap matters.
• Body defense. His numbers show 4.21 body strikes absorbed per minute, and Fugitt's body kicks landed cleanly. A body-punching specialist could feast there.
• Untested and thin resume. Only one UFC fight, and it was his first since a December 2024 no-contest via eye poke. His takedown defense sits around 50 percent and has not been stress-tested at this level.

Heuristic warning: Miller has fewer than two UFC fights. The sample is tiny, so the projection carries real uncertainty. That is a big reason the confidence score sits at just 22 despite heavy odds.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is pressure-and-power versus range-and-volume, orthodox versus orthodox.

• What Goff can exploit: Miller's soft body defense is the clearest lane. Goff's entire finishing identity is the right straight to the body, the exact shot that put Kinoshita to sleep and hurt Waters. If Goff can close and dig to the ribs the way he did in Round 2 against Waters, he can flip this fight in one exchange. His calf kicks off Miller's retreats could also slow the length that Miller depends on.
• What Miller can exploit: Goff walks forward with his head still and leans straight back when pressured. Miller's straight right down the pipe is tailor-made for a man who defends by leaning back with a high guard, exactly the way Waters landed the overhand left in that fight. Miller's reach and jab let him land at the end of the shot while Goff eats damage closing the gap, the same story as Goff versus Kinoshita, except Miller has cleaner defense than Kinoshita did.
• Historical parallel: The Kinoshita fight is the template. A technical, rangy boxer outlanded Goff for nearly five minutes. The difference is Kinoshita got caught closing distance. Miller stays at range better and finishes hurt men faster, so Goff's puncher's chance is real but narrow.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Miller's jab and straight right should control the range immediately. Goff will eat shots walking in, as he did against both Kinoshita and Waters early. The danger window for Goff is the same window Kinoshita missed: one clean body right during an entry.
• Mid-fight adjustments: If Goff cannot close, expect him to try stance switches and calf kicks to disrupt Miller's footwork, the same adjustments he made against Waters' elbow parries. Miller's counter is to keep circling and pumping the jab.
• Later rounds: Goff's cardio and pressure are steady, but Miller has never been past Round 1 in the UFC, so his deep-water game is a genuine unknown. If Goff survives early and drags him into a grind, the untested waters favor the pressure man. That is Goff's best path.

Analysis and Key Points

• Miller's straight right vs Goff's lean-back guard is the defining clash. Goff got tagged by exactly this against Waters (Round 1 overhand left) and Kinoshita (jabs all night).
• Goff's body right is the equalizer. It ended Kinoshita cold and hurt Waters. Miller's 4.21 body strikes absorbed per minute is a flashing target.
• Goff's grappling collapse against Brahimaj is fresh and severe, but Miller does not wrestle, so that specific hole may not get tested here.
• Miller's inexperience and short cage time cap the model's confidence and keep Goff live as a live dog at +310.

Understanding the Prediction

The model lands on Miller but with a modest score of 22, and the SHAP features explain why:

• odds was the dominant factor, dropping the score by 17 and reflecting Miller as the heavy -400 favorite.
• recent_win_perc decreased the score by 4, a nod to Goff's rough recent stretch weighing into the calculus.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight increased confidence by 4, tied to Goff's high takedown volume profile.
• reach decreased the score by 2, and small nudges came from recent_significant_striking_impact_differential (+1), striking_impact_differential (+1), and striking_defense_percentage (+1), while significant_striking_output_differential shaved off 1.

The takeaway: the market and Goff's recent skid drive this pick more than any dominant statistical edge, which fits a low confidence score.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed history with Goff. It correctly called the Trey Waters fight in May 2024 (Waters predicted, decision, correct). But it whiffed badly on the Brahimaj fight, backing Goff at 0.77 right before he got submitted in Round 1. That miss is a caution flag: the model has overrated Goff before. There is no prediction history on Ty Miller, so his side carries fresh uncertainty on top of his one-fight sample.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI picks Ty Miller, and the case holds up. The rangy Albuquerque boxer owns the straight right that thrives against Goff's lean-back defense, and he refuses the grappling exchanges where Goff's takedown game might matter. Goff's puncher's chance is real, that body right can end anyone, but he is coming off a Round 1 submission and has lost two of three. The smart read is Miller controlling range and out-landing Goff, with a live threat of another late finish. The confidence is capped by Miller's thin resume, but the pick stands: Ty Miller.

Analysis: Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Steven Asplund to Win

Score: 26
Odds:
Steven Asplund: -300
Guilherme Pat: +240

Steven Asplund's Breakdown

Asplund is not your typical heavyweight. The man who once tipped the scales north of 500 pounds now fights like a pressure boxer with a gas tank that shames the rest of the division. His debut against Sean Sharaf at UFC Vegas 112 was a record-setter. He landed 170 of 292 significant strikes in under nine minutes, breaking the previous UFC heavyweight three-round mark held by Andrei Arlovski.

Here are the signature weapons that define his game:

• Lead jab into combination work. Against Sharaf in Round 1, Asplund pumped the jab to open a nasty cut between Sharaf's eyes, then built off it with straight rights and uppercuts. This is a heavyweight who actually chains punches together instead of loading up for one bomb.
• Standing elbows in close. Early in Round 1 against Sharaf, he bounced off looping right hands and countered with a pair of damaging elbows. He mixes these into the pocket when opponents crowd him.
• Volume pressure and cage-cutting. In Round 2 against Sharaf, he hemmed his man against the fence and unloaded lefts, rights, and uppercuts until the ref stepped in at 3:49. His pace is his real killer, and his stats back it: 14.8 significant strikes landed per minute recently, with a recent striking impact differential of +78.35.

His technical evolution is real. He himself noted the biggest difference in his Sharaf camp was the number of heavyweight rounds logged, so the cardio is a built asset, not an accident. But the Petrino loss showed a wrinkle we have to address below.

Steven Asplund's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Wrestling-threat hesitancy. This is the big one. Against Vitor Petrino, the mere threat of the takedown froze Asplund's offense. He would throw two punches then drop his hips and ready his sprawl, killing his combinations. He never chased Petrino when the Brazilian was out of position after striking. The good news for this matchup: Pat is not a wrestler. Pat has zero takedowns and zero attempts in the UFC. This vulnerability may stay dormant here.
• Defensive head movement. Against Sharaf, Asplund ate flush looping shots. His significant striking defense sits at just under 50 percent, meaning he is hittable. Pat throws a hard straight right and a nasty left hook counter, so this is a live danger.
• Got knocked out recently. In Round 3 against Petrino, a right low kick, skip-up inside low kick, then a jab as the foot landed dropped him cold. Warning: Asplund was finished by strikes in his last outing. A durable, powerful opponent can find that same opening if Asplund gets careless in the pocket.

Guilherme Pat's Breakdown

"Kong" Pat is a 6'6" Shotokan karate black belt with an 81-inch reach and a 6-1 record. He is a genuine physical specimen at heavyweight, and his debut against Allen Frye Jr. showed the ceiling. He was, in the words of the recap, "seemingly twice as fast as Frye on the feet," winning the significant strike count 64-33 over three rounds.

His signature weapons:

• Outside leg kicks. He opened the Frye fight with heavy outside leg kicks and used them all night to control range and chew up his opponent's base.
• Straight right hand. Against Frye in Round 2, a straight right visibly hurt him. This is his money punch, thrown from that long karate stance to keep opponents at the end of his reach.
• Elbows and clinch offense. When Frye clinched him against the cage, Pat answered with violent elbows and short punches rather than stalling.

But his most recent fight told a darker story. Against Thomas Petersen, Pat stuffed all five takedown attempts yet lost a majority decision because he was flat-footed and passive, then got dropped twice in Round 3.

Guilherme Pat's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Flat-footed passivity. Against Petersen, Pat spent the night flat-footed and patient, letting a grinder set the terms. He failed to use his reach and let his opponent dictate pace. Asplund is exactly the kind of high-volume pressure fighter who feasts on passivity. If Pat stands still, Asplund's 15 strikes per minute will bury him.
• Chin under fire and poor recovery. In Round 3 against Petersen, a short right hook dropped him against the cage. Then, instead of recovering safely, he tried to exchange and ate an uppercut for a second knockdown. That is a fight-IQ red flag against a volume swarmer like Asplund who pounces when opponents wobble.
• Cardio fade. Even in the winning Frye fight, Pat was visibly fatigued after his Round 3 flurry. Against a man who set a heavyweight volume record and only got stronger late, gassing is a death sentence.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a striker versus striker fight, which plays directly into Asplund's hands.

How Asplund exploits Pat: Pat's flat-footed patience against Petersen is the blueprint. Asplund does not wait. His jab-to-elbow, jab-to-combination pressure will force Pat to fight at a pace he has never sustained. Recall Pat got dropped by short shots in the pocket against Petersen. Asplund's cage-cutting, the same way he trapped Sharaf against the fence in Round 2, will strand Pat where his reach means nothing and his chin gets tested.

How Pat exploits Asplund: Pat's straight right and left hook counter are real threats given Asplund's leaky defense (sub-50 percent significant strike defense) and recent KO loss. If Pat stays disciplined at range and uses his 81-inch reach with leg kicks, he can pick Asplund apart the way Petrino did with the low-kick-to-jab sequence. But that requires urgency Pat has never shown.

The Petersen fight is the cautionary tale for Pat: physical tools alone did not stop a pressure grinder from taking over. Asplund is that grinder with far more volume.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Pat may find early success with leg kicks and the straight right at range, much like he opened on Frye. Expect Asplund to eat a few but keep marching forward behind the jab.
• Mid-fight: This is where Asplund's volume takes over. As he did with Sharaf, he starts hemming Pat against the cage and unloading. Pat's flat-footed tendency, seen clearly against Petersen, lets Asplund close distance and neutralize the reach.
• Late rounds: Cardio decides it. Pat faded in both his UFC fights. Asplund broke a division volume record and, by his own account, built his camp around heavyweight rounds. If this hits Round 3, Asplund's tank and pressure should overwhelm a tiring Pat.

Analysis and Key Points

• Asplund's volume vs Pat's passivity. Pat let Petersen set the terms and lost. Asplund sets a far higher pace than Petersen ever did.
• The chin question cuts both ways. Asplund was KO'd by Petrino, and Pat was dropped twice by Petersen. Both men are hittable, but Asplund throws far more and finishes more aggressively (see the Sharaf swarm at 3:49 of Round 2).
• No wrestling from Pat. Asplund's single biggest vulnerability, his wrestling-threat freeze against Petrino, is irrelevant here. Pat has no takedown game to exploit it.
• Reach edge to Pat, but he doesn't use it. The 81-inch reach meant nothing against Petersen because of flat feet. Asplund's pressure erases range advantages.
• Cardio gap is stark. Pat faded twice; Asplund set records for output.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Asplund at a score of 26, a moderate lean rather than a lock. The features that actually moved the needle:

• Odds increased the score by 12.0, the largest single factor, reflecting Asplund's -300 favorite status.
• significant_striking_impact_differential added 6.0, backing Asplund's massive edge in landed impact.
• striking_defense_percentage added 3.0.
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential and recent_win_perc each added 2.0, as did striking_impact_differential.
• trueskill, recent_striking_impact_differential, recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight, and recent_significant_striking_defense_percentage each nudged it up by 1.0.

Everything else registered zero impact. The model leans on Asplund's striking output and impact numbers plus the market's confidence, not on any wrestling edge.

Past Model Performance

Caution flags here. WolfTicketsAI has a 0-for-2 record on these two fighters. It picked Asplund to beat Petrino (score 0.52) and he lost by decision. It picked Pat to beat Petersen (score 0.57) and he lost by majority decision. Both prior calls were close-scored and both were wrong. That history, combined with a modest 26 score, means this is not a high-conviction pick. Treat it accordingly.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI backs Steven Asplund, and the logic holds. This is a striking matchup where Pat has no wrestling to freeze Asplund's offense, no proven cardio to match his pace, and a habit of flat-footed passivity that pressure fighters punish. Asplund's record-setting volume and cage-cutting should wear Pat down and find the same openings Petersen did. The risks are real, Asplund's chin was cracked last time out and both men are hittable, but the pick is Asplund by pressure and volume, most likely a late finish or a clear decision.

Analysis: Diyar Nurgozhay vs Bruno Lopes

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Diyar Nurgozhay to Win

Score: 15
Odds:
Diyar Nurgozhay: -145
Bruno Lopes: +120

Diyar Nurgozhay's Breakdown

Nurgozhay is a counter-striker who wins fights by controlling distance and timing entries. When he's clicking, he's a nightmare for pressure fighters who march forward in straight lines. His best win, the TKO over Brendson Ribeiro, is the blueprint. In round one he stuffed Ribeiro's forward pressure with front kicks to the body, then timed a counter right hand that staggered him after Ribeiro slipped in with a blitzing combo. He kept building on it, and by round three he was chopping Ribeiro's lead leg to kill his mobility before slipping one last punch and dropping him with the counter right for the finish.

His signature weapons:

• Counter right hand. This is his money shot. Against Ribeiro mid-round one he slipped a lead hook and cracked him clean with it, and the same punch ended the fight in round three when Ribeiro overcommitted.
• Front kick system. He varies teeps to the thigh, body, and feints high to redirect. Against Ribeiro these kicks disrupted forward momentum all night and forced constant resets.
• Lead leg kicks as an adjustment. By round three against Ribeiro he was punishing the heavy lead leg, a sign he can adapt mid-fight rather than sit on one read.

His stats back the striking edge. He carries a Significant Striking Impact Differential of 16.33 and a Striking Accuracy of 63 percent, meaning when he lands, he lands harder and cleaner than his opponents. The catch is his recent form. He lost two straight by submission, to Brendson Ribeiro and Uran Satybaldiev, before rebounding with a decision over Rafael Tobias. His Recent Win Percentage sits at just 33 percent, so the momentum here is shakier than the record suggests.

When his gameplan fails, it tends to fail on the mat. Both recent losses came by submission, which tells you where the danger is.

Diyar Nurgozhay's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Linear retreat under pressure. Against Ribeiro there were stretches where he backed straight to the fence instead of circling out, eating strikes he did not need to. A fighter who cuts the cage can trap him here.
• Overreliance on the counter right. He loads up on it so much that he becomes predictable and hesitant to lead. Feint the entry, draw the counter, and you can beat his counter with your own.
• Grappling and submission defense. His Takedown Defense Ratio is a poor 0.29 overall, and he was submitted in both of his recent losses. If a fight hits the mat against a grappler, he's in real trouble.

Bruno Lopes's Breakdown

Lopes is a methodical, patient counter-striker with grappling credentials, a two-time LFA champ who tries to drag fights into wrestling exchanges. His best UFC night was the decision win over Magomed Gadzhiyasulov, where he shot 14 takedowns, landed five, and racked up over nine minutes of control time. That control-heavy approach is his path to victory.

His signature tools:

• Volume takedown attempts. He attempts a staggering 12.7 takedowns per fight. Against Gadzhiyasulov, relentless level changes bought him control time even at low accuracy.
• Straight punching and a high guard. He relies on clean 1-2s and a disciplined defensive shell rather than wild combinations.
• Boxing power. He flashed it against Navajo Stirling in round one, landing a clean hook on the chin that showed real pop when he closes distance.

The problem is where he's trending. Lopes has lost two straight by KO/TKO, first to Dustin Jacoby in round one, then to Navajo Stirling in round two. His Recent Win Percentage is 33 percent, and his striking differentials are ugly across the board. His Significant Striking Impact Differential is minus 15.67 and his Average Striking Output Differential is minus 28, meaning he is consistently outlanded and outgunned on the feet.

When his gameplan fails, it collapses. Against Stirling his takedowns got stuffed, his cardio faded in round two, and once he was rocked he could not recover, turtling under a prolonged barrage. That's a repeating pattern.

Bruno Lopes's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Cannot recover when hurt. Against Jacoby a single stunning jab started the finish and he never escaped. Against Stirling a straight right in round two led to a minute-long beating. Once he's rocked, the lights go out.
• Fading cardio. He visibly slowed in round two against Stirling, which dropped his output and his defense right when he needed both.
• Passive against the cage. Against Gadzhiyasulov he backed straight to the fence and absorbed strikes rather than circling out, the same linear flaw that gets exploited round after round.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a striker-versus-grappler puzzle with a wrestling wrinkle. Lopes's clearest path is the same one that submitted Nurgozhay twice: get it to the mat. Nurgozhay's overall takedown defense is a leaky 0.29, and he's been finished by submission in two of his last three. If Lopes can chain his volume takedown entries, he can drag this into the deep water where Nurgozhay has drowned before.

But there's a big but. Lopes's takedowns get stuffed by athletic opponents, as Stirling showed by denying attempt after attempt. And Nurgozhay's front kick system is tailor-made to stop the straight-line pressure Lopes uses to close distance. Recall how those teeps kept Ribeiro from ever building momentum. Lopes moves forward in straight lines and backs straight up when pressured, exactly the profile Nurgozhay's counter right feasts on. The Ribeiro fight is the template: a forward-marching, looping striker overcommits and gets clipped.

The heuristic warning matters here. Lopes has been KO'd in back-to-back fights, and Nurgozhay's counter right dropped Ribeiro cold. If Lopes plants his feet to swing, he's walking into the one punch that ends nights.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Nurgozhay should own the opening frame with front kicks and range control, the same way he neutralized Ribeiro in round one. Lopes will look to shoot early, but if those shots get stuffed like they did against Stirling, he's forced into a striking match he loses on paper.
• Mid-fight adjustments: This is Lopes's danger zone. His cardio dipped hard in round two against Stirling. If he's spent his gas tank on failed takedowns, Nurgozhay's counters and leg kicks pile up, and Lopes's recovery-under-fire problem becomes fatal.
• Later rounds: Lopes's only realistic win is an early takedown and submission before his tank empties. The longer this stays standing, the worse it gets for him.

Analysis and Key Points

• Nurgozhay's counter right vs Lopes's chin. Lopes was stopped by a Jacoby jab and a Stirling straight right. Nurgozhay's best weapon is exactly the shot that finishes him.
• Front kicks vs straight-line pressure. Nurgozhay's teeps shut down Ribeiro's forward march and should do the same to Lopes's distance-closing.
• The real threat is the mat. Lopes's high-volume takedowns meet Nurgozhay's weak 0.29 takedown defense and two recent submission losses. This is the one live path for the underdog.
• Cardio and recovery favor Diyar. Lopes fades late and cannot survive once rocked. Both cut against him in a fight that stays standing.

Understanding the Prediction

The model leans Nurgozhay but only modestly, with a score of 15. The features that moved the needle:

• significant_striking_impact_differential was the biggest driver, adding 7.0. Nurgozhay's plus 16.33 against Lopes's minus 15.67 is a chasm.
• odds added 5.0, reflecting Nurgozhay's favorite status at -145.
• recent_win_perc added 3.0, though notably both men sit at 33 percent recently.
• striking_defense_percentage added 2.0, and trueskill, recent_significant_striking_impact_differential, striking_impact_differential, significant_striking_output_differential, and average_striking_output_differential each added 1.0.
• Working against him, recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight knocked off 1.0, a nod to Lopes's grappling volume being the one real threat.

The striking gap carries this pick. The takedown feature is the lone dissenter.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a clean read on Lopes. It correctly called both of his recent losses, picking Navajo Stirling (0.82) and Dustin Jacoby (0.55), both cashing by KO/TKO. That's a vote of confidence in the model's grasp of how Lopes gets beat. On Nurgozhay, the record is thinner but accurate, it correctly took Uran Satybaldiev to submit him. No misses on either man, which supports leaning on this call.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI takes Diyar Nurgozhay, and the case is clean. Lopes is a fading, twice-KO'd fighter whose only path is a takedown that athletic opponents keep stuffing. Nurgozhay's front kicks kill the entries, and his counter right is the exact punch that already put Lopes to sleep twice. Watch the grappling, because Diyar's takedown defense is genuinely poor and his submission losses are real. But standing, this is a bad matchup for Lopes. The pick is Nurgozhay.

Analysis: Juliana Miller vs Ravena Oliveira

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Juliana Miller to Win

Score: 25
Odds:
Juliana Miller: -340
Ravena Oliveira: +265

Juliana Miller's Breakdown

Juliana "Killer" Miller is a grappler at heart with a BJJ brown belt, and her best UFC nights have all come when she drags the fight to the mat. The blueprint is her TUF finale win over Brogan Walker in 2022, where she secured top position repeatedly, wore Walker down with ground-and-pound, and finished by TKO from top control. That is the version of Miller that wins fights: patient positional grappling, chaining takedowns, and grinding out damage rather than hunting reckless submissions.

Her signature weapons:

• Chain wrestling into top control. Against Walker she showed the ability to transition through position changes when her opponent tried to stand, never letting the scramble get away from her. Her stat sheet backs this up with 7.42 takedowns attempted per fight, an elite volume number for the division.
• Ground-and-pound from dominant position. Rather than sacrificing position for a submission, she postures and pounds, the Suarez-style approach that earned her the Walker stoppage.
• Volume forward pressure. She throws 4.53 strikes landed per minute, pushing a high pace even if the technique is raw.

Technically, her recent evolution is a mixed bag. She earned a decision over Ivana Petrovic in May 2025, but bookended that with losses to Veronica Hardy (2023) and Carli Judice (Feb 2026). The Judice loss is her most recent outing, a unanimous decision defeat, so she comes in off a setback.

Juliana Miller's Technical Vulnerabilities

• Unrefined, telegraphed striking entries. Against Luana Santos in 2023 she "came running out of her corner" and blitzed without setups. Santos stayed composed, countered with hammer fists, and swarmed her for the KO/TKO finish. When Miller strikes without her grappling to back it up, she is predictable and hittable.
• Poor striking defense. Her numbers are ugly: a 38% striking defense percentage that drops to 30% recently, and she absorbs 2.55 head strikes per minute. A counter-striker who makes her miss makes her pay.
• Reaction to adversity. When her initial burst gets neutralized, Miller tends to keep charging into danger rather than adjusting, exactly what got her finished by Santos. That defensive lapse under pressure is the recurring theme of her losses.

Ravena Oliveira's Breakdown

Ravena Oliveira is an aggressive pressure striker and a finisher on the regional scene, where 6 of her 7 wins came by KO/TKO, four in the opening round. She entered the UFC on a seven-fight win streak. The problem is that streak has not translated: she is 0-3 in the Octagon.

Her signature weapons:

• Overhand blitzes. Against Shanelle Dyer in March 2026 she rushed forward behind heavy overhands as her primary offense. When she connects she is dangerous.
• Power combinations in bunches. In Round 2 against Dyer she landed a 4-punch combo that backed Dyer to the cage, her best moment of the night and proof of real pop when she strings shots together.
• Distance striking accuracy. In her debut against Tainara Lisboa she landed 86% of her significant strikes at distance, showing a clean Muay Thai base when she can find her range.

The technical evolution has trended the wrong way. She dropped a decision to Lisboa (2023), got submitted by Stephanie Luciano (Oct 2025), and was starched by Dyer via TKO in March 2026. Her recent win percentage is 0.00 and she has lost her last three.

Ravena Oliveira's Technical Vulnerabilities

• No defensive head movement on entries. Against Dyer she rushed in with minimal defensive responsibility, which is exactly how she ate the fight-ending right hand and head kick in Round 2. She charges in a straight line.
• Ground game and positional awareness. Against Lisboa she "looked lost completely" as Lisboa moved to mount, and later got submitted by Luciano. She struggles to retain guard and defend from bottom, and her armbar attempts against Lisboa were sloppy and got her nowhere.
• Clinch defense. Once hurt against Dyer, she was controlled in the clinch and finished with knees. Against Lisboa she "was never able to escape the clinch." Anyone who ties her up owns her.

Heuristic warnings: Oliveira was recently KO'd (Dyer, March 2026), so the same finish threat looms if she gets hurt again. She has also lost her last three, a clear downward trend. Note too that Oliveira has fought most of her recent bouts at Strawweight and Bantamweight; this is a Flyweight matchup, so weight-class movement is in play.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a classic grappler-versus-wild-brawler setup, and the tape points one direction.

• Miller's path: Her 7.42 takedown attempts per fight run straight at Oliveira's worst area. Lisboa exploited exactly this, timing takedowns and riding top position to a decision, and Luciano finished her on the mat. If Miller gets Oliveira down, the Walker blueprint repeats: top control, ground-and-pound, and the clinch grind that Oliveira has never solved.
• Oliveira's path: Her power is the live threat. Miller's 30% recent striking defense and habit of charging in recklessly is precisely the kind of opponent Oliveira's overhands can catch, the same way Santos caught Miller running in. If this stays a straight-line firefight, Oliveira has the pop to land the fight-changer.
• Historical parallel: The Lisboa fight is the template. A grappler who weathers Oliveira's early aggression and takes her down controls her for 15 minutes. Miller has the wrestling volume to be that fighter, provided she does not get into a phone-booth slugfest early.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Both come out aggressive, so expect chaos in the first two minutes. This is the danger window for Miller, since Oliveira's best moments (the 4-punch combo on Dyer) come in the opening exchanges. Miller needs to close distance and change levels rather than trade.
• Mid-fight: If Miller lands her takedowns, the fight tilts fast. Oliveira has shown she cannot get up or improve position, and she gassed in Round 3 against Lisboa. Miller's grinding top game feeds on exactly that.
• Late rounds: Oliveira's cardio faded badly against Lisboa by Round 3. Miller's forward-pressure pace and takedown volume should compound that, assuming she has not been clipped early.

Analysis and Key Points

• Miller's wrestling vs Oliveira's bottom game is the decisive clash. Lisboa and Luciano both proved Oliveira folds once grounded.
• Oliveira's overhand right is the equalizer. Santos showed Miller can be finished when she blitzes without setups.
• Clinch is a kill zone for Oliveira. Dyer finished her there, Lisboa trapped her there. Miller lives in the clinch.
• Recent form: Miller is 1-2 in her last three, Oliveira is 0-3 with a fresh KO loss. Both are struggling, but Miller has the higher-percentage path to victory.
• Cardio edge leans Miller in the later frames given Oliveira's Round 3 fade against Lisboa.

Understanding the Prediction

The model landed on Miller but only at a modest score of 25, reflecting genuine risk:

• Odds were the dominant factor, pushing the score up by 19.0, reflecting Miller's heavy -340 favoritism.
• recent_takedowns_attempted_per_fight added 3.0, rewarding Miller's grappling volume against an opponent who cannot defend the mat.
• significant_striking_impact_differential, trueskill, and recent_win_perc each added 2.0.
• recent_significant_striking_impact_differential, striking_impact_differential, significant_striking_output_differential, reach, and striking_defense_percentage each nudged the score up by 1.0.
• Every remaining feature registered zero impact and did not move the needle.

The takeaway: the pick leans heavily on odds and Miller's takedown volume against a grappling-deficient opponent, not on striking dominance.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI's track record on Miller is shaky. It was correct calling Judice over her (Feb 2026) but wrong picking Petrovic against her (May 2025) and wrong backing Miller herself against Veronica Hardy (2023). Two of three misses is a caution flag. On Oliveira, the model has one data point, correctly calling Luciano to submit her, which fits the read that Oliveira crumbles on the ground. The limited and mixed history means this modest 25 score should be treated with the caution it deserves.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI picks Juliana Miller, and the logic holds: Oliveira is 0-3 in the UFC, cannot defend takedowns, gets trapped in the clinch, and just got knocked out. Miller's wrestling volume and top control are the exact tools that have sunk Oliveira before. The one live danger is Oliveira's overhand catching Miller as she recklessly charges in, the Santos scenario. But if Miller changes levels instead of brawling, she grinds this out. The pick is Miller by control and ground-and-pound, most likely a decision or late TKO.