UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber

Analysis: Mateusz Gamrot vs Ludovit Klein

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Mateusz Gamrot to Win

Score: 3
Odds:
Mateusz Gamrot: -178
Ludovit Klein: 138

Mateusz Gamrot's Breakdown

Gamrot brings a wrestling-heavy approach that has proven effective against most of his UFC opponents. His game revolves around relentless takedown attempts, often chaining together multiple shots when initial attempts fail. Against Dan Hooker, Gamrot attempted an impressive 16 takedowns, showcasing his persistence even when facing strong defense.

Gamrot's striking has evolved significantly since his UFC debut. While once limited to basic 1-2 combinations, he now throws extended three and four-punch sequences, as demonstrated against Hooker where his third and fourth punches frequently found their mark. His stance-switching creates unpredictable angles for both his strikes and takedown entries.

His signature techniques include:

1. Head-outside single leg takedowns - Gamrot excels at penetrating single-leg entries where he steps deep with his leg behind the opponent's leg in a "run the pipe" motion. Against RDA, he secured a beautiful takedown by changing levels, grabbing a single leg, and transitioning to an inside trip when RDA defended the initial attack.

2. Chain wrestling sequences - When opponents defend his initial shots, Gamrot seamlessly transitions to secondary attacks. Against Arman Tsarukyan, when traditional shots were defended, he would transition to sucker drags, arm drags, or reset for new entries.

3. Pressure striking with stance switching - Gamrot employs a highly effective pressure striking approach where he constantly changes stances to create openings. This mobility helps him cut off the cage and force opponents to react to his feints before committing to wrestling entries.

Mateusz Gamrot's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Linear retreating patterns under pressure - When pressured heavily in striking exchanges, Gamrot tends to retreat in straight lines rather than circling out. Against Dos Anjos, he was caught with counter hooks while backing up. Instead of pivoting away from danger, he defaults to linear backward movement, leaving him susceptible to being trapped against the fence.

2. Head-outside takedown vulnerability - Gamrot's head-outside single leg creates significant vulnerability to guillotine counters, as demonstrated by Hooker repeatedly. When shooting with his head on the outside, Hooker would punch through to position his elbow directly on Gamrot's throat, threatening a high-risk front guillotine. This forced Gamrot to execute defensive gator rolls to escape.

3. Ground control limitations - Despite his wrestling credentials, Gamrot struggles to maintain top position against defensively savvy opponents. Against Hooker, he completed multiple takedowns but couldn't establish prolonged control, allowing Hooker to return to his feet repeatedly. This pattern suggests technical gaps in his transitional control sequences.

Ludovit Klein's Breakdown

Klein is a dynamic southpaw striker with explosive power and a sophisticated kicking arsenal. His game is built around his devastating left kicks, which he uses to target the body, head, and legs with equal proficiency. These kicks serve as both primary weapons and feint mechanisms to set up his punching combinations.

His recent performances show significant technical evolution, particularly in his defensive wrestling and clinch work. Against Roosevelt Roberts, Klein demonstrated improved clinch defense by securing an overhook while placing his forearm under Roberts' neck, creating enough space to disengage.

Klein's signature techniques include:

1. Left kick variations - His technical foundation centers on a versatile left leg, which he deploys to multiple targets with equal proficiency. Against AJ Cunningham, Klein landed a devastating front kick to the body that ended the fight, showing his precision with this weapon.

2. Southpaw hip feints - Klein uses exaggerated hip movements to simulate his left kick, forcing opponents to react defensively. This creates openings for him to skip forward with follow-up techniques like knees or straight lefts.

3. Switch stance striking - Klein blends his southpaw stance with rapid switching and layered striking combinations. Against Shane Young, he established his jab before unleashing a left-right uppercut combination that capitalized on Young's compromised posture following a head kick.

Ludovit Klein's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Defensive positioning after kicks - When opponents successfully parry his left kick across his body, Klein momentarily loses his defensive structure. Against Roosevelt Roberts, when his kick was parried, Roberts immediately stepped in to secure a body lock, creating a takedown opportunity.

2. Limited offensive arsenal when kick-reliant - Klein shows significant technical decline when unable to utilize his left kick. Against Roosevelt Roberts, once his kick was successfully countered in the first exchange, Klein abandoned this weapon for nearly the entire second round, severely limiting his offensive options.

3. Positional weakness in grappling - Klein's butterfly guard lacks the technical refinements to effectively create space against high-level grapplers. He struggles when opponents establish positional control with head posting under his jaw and bicep ties that neutralize his ability to establish meaningful grips for sweeps or get-ups.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight presents a classic striker vs. grappler matchup with clear paths to victory for both fighters. Gamrot's wrestling-heavy approach directly counters Klein's kick-reliant striking game, creating a challenging stylistic puzzle for the Slovak fighter.

Gamrot will likely look to time Klein's kicks for takedown entries, similar to how Roberts successfully parried Klein's left kick before stepping in for a body lock. Klein's tendency to lose defensive structure after his kicks are defended creates perfect opportunities for Gamrot's single-leg entries.

Klein's southpaw stance could initially complicate Gamrot's takedown entries, as the angle makes traditional double-leg shots more difficult. However, Gamrot has shown excellent adaptability against southpaws, using level changes and feints to disguise his entries.

The most dangerous technique Klein possesses against Gamrot is his body kick. Against Beneil Dariush, Gamrot was repeatedly targeted with body kicks that exploited his tendency to focus on upper-body defense while pressuring forward. If Klein can establish this weapon early, it could slow Gamrot's wrestling pressure.

Gamrot's chain wrestling presents a significant problem for Klein, who has struggled against persistent takedown attempts. Against Roberts, Klein was repeatedly taken down despite improved defensive wrestling. Gamrot's ability to string together multiple takedown attempts when initial shots fail will likely exhaust Klein's defensive resources.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds: Expect Klein to establish his kicking game immediately, trying to land body kicks to slow Gamrot's forward pressure. Gamrot will likely be patient, using feints and jabs to measure distance before timing a takedown attempt off one of Klein's kicks. The first successful takedown will be crucial - if Gamrot can get Klein down early, it will force the Slovak fighter to become more hesitant with his kicks.

Mid-fight adjustments: If Gamrot secures multiple takedowns in the first round, Klein will likely reduce his kicking output and focus more on defensive wrestling. This plays directly into Gamrot's hands, as Klein becomes significantly less effective when unable to utilize his primary weapons. Gamrot's cardio advantage will become apparent as the fight progresses, allowing him to maintain his wrestling pressure.

Championship rounds: Should the fight reach the later rounds, Gamrot's superior cardio and pace will likely be the deciding factor. Klein has shown cardio issues in previous fights, particularly when forced to defend takedowns repeatedly. Gamrot's ability to maintain the same technical precision in his takedown attempts in round five as he showed in round one (as demonstrated against RDA) will allow him to continue scoring points and controlling the fight.

Analysis and Key Points

• Takedown differential is massive - Gamrot averages 5.24 takedowns per fight compared to Klein's 1.70, highlighting the Polish fighter's wrestling advantage.
• Klein's defensive wrestling will be tested - Klein has improved his takedown defense but hasn't faced a wrestler of Gamrot's caliber who attempts nearly 15 takedowns per fight.
• Striking defense favors Gamrot - Despite being the less dynamic striker, Gamrot's 55% striking defense exceeds Klein's 45%, suggesting he's harder to hit cleanly.
• Klein's knockout power is real - With 0.60 knockdowns per fight compared to Gamrot's 0.12, Klein possesses fight-ending power if he can keep the fight standing.
• Gamrot's cardio advantage will be crucial - Gamrot has proven his ability to maintain a high pace through five rounds against elite competition like Arman Tsarukyan.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI's confidence in Gamrot stems from several key factors:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 5.0, reflecting the betting market's confidence in Gamrot
• Recent takedowns attempted per fight increased the score by 5.0, highlighting Gamrot's relentless wrestling approach
• TrueSkill decreased the prediction score by 2.0, suggesting Klein may be slightly underrated
• Recent win percentage decreased the score by 2.0, acknowledging Klein's recent success
• Striking defense percentage increased the score by 1.0, reflecting Gamrot's defensive advantage

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record predicting Gamrot's fights, correctly forecasting his wins against Rafael Dos Anjos and Jalin Turner but missing on his recent loss to Dan Hooker. The model has been more successful with Klein recently, correctly predicting his victories against Roosevelt Roberts and Thiago Moises.

Notably, the model has sometimes underestimated Klein, incorrectly predicting losses against Ignacio Bahamondes, Mason Jones, and Devonte Smith - all fights Klein won. This suggests Klein may perform better than expected, though Gamrot presents a much more challenging stylistic matchup than those opponents.

Conclusion

Gamrot's relentless wrestling approach and cardio advantage should prove too much for Klein to handle over three rounds. While Klein possesses dangerous striking and knockout power, Gamrot's ability to chain together takedown attempts and control position will likely neutralize Klein's kicking game. Expect Gamrot to secure multiple takedowns, gradually wearing down Klein en route to a clear decision victory.

Analysis: Billy Ray Goff vs Ramiz Brahimaj

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Billy Ray Goff to Win

Score: 26
Odds:
Billy Ray Goff: -360
Ramiz Brahimaj: 260

Billy Ray Goff's Breakdown

Billy Ray Goff enters this welterweight clash with a methodical and adaptable striking approach that has shown significant evolution. His recent loss to Trey Waters came after a knockout victory over Yusaku Kinoshita, demonstrating his finishing capability when he finds his rhythm.

Goff's technical arsenal revolves around three signature weapons:

1. Devastating right straight to the body - This punch has become Goff's most dangerous weapon, as seen in his fight with Kinoshita where he landed a perfectly placed solar plexus shot that folded his opponent. Goff throws this with proper mechanics - slight level change, full hip rotation, and complete weight transfer - making it a fight-altering technique.

2. Stance-switching striking combinations - Against Waters, Goff demonstrated his ability to switch stances mid-combination, using what analysts called a "switch cross" technique where he steps forward with his right foot while throwing his left hand. This creates unpredictable angles that bypass traditional defenses.

3. Systematic calf kick setups - Goff employs a pressure-retreat sequence where he steps into punching range, forces his opponent to retreat, then catches them with a calf kick as they back away. This creates a catch-22 situation where opponents must either absorb the kick or stay in punching range.

Goff's recent technical evolution shows improved adaptability. Against Waters, when his jab was neutralized by elbow parries, he adjusted by employing stance switches and targeting the body. His striking has evolved from primarily head-hunting to incorporating more systematic body attacks and leg kicks.

Billy Ray Goff's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Defensive head movement limitations - When pressured, Goff tends to lean straight back with his hands high rather than incorporating lateral movement. This was exposed against Waters, who caught him with an overhand left despite Goff having his guard up. His habit of leaning straight back leaves him vulnerable to straight punches that can thread through his guard, as seen in round 1 against Waters.

2. Over-commitment to successful techniques - Once Goff finds success with a particular technique, he tends to return to it too predictably. After landing body shots against Kinoshita, he repeatedly looked for the same entry, making his timing more readable as the fight progressed. This pattern was also evident in round 2 against Waters.

3. Defensive vulnerability during forward pressure - Against Kinoshita, Goff absorbed numerous clean jabs and counter shots while pursuing his forward-moving gameplan. His head movement is minimal when pressing forward, making him a relatively stationary target, particularly vulnerable to technical strikers.

Ramiz Brahimaj's Breakdown

Ramiz Brahimaj brings a hybrid approach that combines aggressive striking with submission-oriented grappling. His recent UFC run has been inconsistent, but his first-round knockout victory over Mickey Gall showcased his improved striking.

Brahimaj's technical arsenal centers around three primary weapons:

1. Stance-switching power shots - Against Gall, Brahimaj demonstrated a willingness to shift stances mid-combination. He transitioned from orthodox to southpaw before landing a fight-ending right hand, creating offensive ambiguity that caught Gall unprepared.

2. Clinch control and dirty boxing - Brahimaj utilizes short, inside punches and underhook pressure in the clinch to disrupt his opponent's rhythm. This was evident against Gall, where he maintained control with underhooks and landed short elbows and uppercuts in close quarters.

3. Submission chains from dominant positions - With 10 career submission wins, Brahimaj excels at capitalizing on grappling opportunities. Against Micheal Gillmore, he secured a rear-naked choke after a well-timed takedown, demonstrating his ability to transition smoothly from striking to submission attempts.

Brahimaj's recent technical evolution shows improved striking confidence. Against Gall, he displayed more dynamic stance-switching and mid-combination footwork compared to previous fights where he relied more on orthodox striking and clinch control.

Ramiz Brahimaj's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Defensive gaps in transition - Brahimaj briefly slipped when throwing a knee in the clinch against Gall, indicating a potential balance issue during dynamic transitions. This vulnerability was also exposed against Themba Gorimbo, who capitalized on Brahimaj's overcommitment to strikes by securing well-timed takedowns.

2. Defensive striking posture - When pressured, Brahimaj tends to raise his guard high and shell up, leaving his body exposed. This creates exploitable openings for body shots and low kicks, which Gorimbo capitalized on throughout their encounter. This defensive reaction becomes particularly pronounced when backing up under pressure.

3. Cardio management - Against Court McGee, Brahimaj showed technical degradation as the fight progressed, particularly evident in the third round. His takedown mechanics lost precision, and his defensive reactions slowed considerably. This manifested in lowered hands and decreased head movement, creating openings for McGee's volume striking.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a fascinating contrast between Goff's methodical pressure striking and Brahimaj's grappling-oriented approach. Several key technical dynamics will likely determine the outcome:

• Body work advantage for Goff: Goff's devastating right straight to the body could be particularly effective against Brahimaj's tendency to shell up with a high guard when pressured. In the Gorimbo fight, Brahimaj consistently left his midsection exposed when defending strikes, creating a perfect target for Goff's solar plexus shot that finished Kinoshita.

• Stance-switching confusion: Both fighters have shown stance-switching abilities, but Goff's implementation appears more technically sound. His "switch cross" technique could create angles that bypass Brahimaj's high guard defense, similar to how he adjusted against Waters' elbow parries.

• Clinch battle implications: Brahimaj's clinch control will be tested against Goff's systematic distance management. If Brahimaj can secure the clinch, his dirty boxing and takedown attempts could neutralize Goff's striking advantage. However, Goff's front kicks and distance management have proven effective at keeping opponents at his preferred range.

• Cardio differential: Brahimaj's tendency to slow down in later rounds, as seen against McGee, could be exploited by Goff's methodical pressure. If Goff can weather early grappling attempts, Brahimaj's defensive vulnerabilities typically become more pronounced as fights progress.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Expect Brahimaj to push an aggressive pace seeking clinch entries and takedown attempts. Goff will likely focus on establishing his jab and front kicks to maintain distance, similar to his approach against Waters. Brahimaj's early success will depend on whether he can close distance without absorbing Goff's counter strikes.

• Mid-fight adjustments: If Brahimaj fails to secure takedowns early, look for Goff to increase his body work, targeting Brahimaj's tendency to shell up defensively. Goff's technical adaptability, demonstrated against Waters, suggests he'll make adjustments based on Brahimaj's defensive reactions.

• Later rounds: Brahimaj's cardio issues against McGee indicate potential vulnerability in extended fights. Goff's systematic pressure could wear down Brahimaj, creating opportunities for the same kind of body shot that finished Kinoshita. Brahimaj's defensive gaps typically widen as his energy depletes.

Analysis and Key Points

• Goff's body work vs. Brahimaj's high guard creates a clear technical mismatch that favors Goff
• Brahimaj's takedown success rate of 35.7% may not be sufficient against Goff's 100% takedown defense
• Goff's front kicks could neutralize Brahimaj's forward pressure, similar to how he controlled distance against Waters
• Brahimaj's cardio decline in later rounds was exploited by McGee and could be targeted by Goff's methodical pressure
• Both fighters have shown knockout power, but Goff's technical precision appears more consistent

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI's confidence in Goff is driven by several key statistical factors:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 17.0, reflecting the betting market's strong confidence in Goff
• Significant striking impact differential increased the score by 5.0, highlighting Goff's superior power striking
• Recent significant striking impact differential added 3.0 to the score, showing Goff's recent striking effectiveness
• Recent takedowns attempted per fight contributed 3.0, suggesting Goff's wrestling activity will be important
• Striking defense percentage added 2.0, indicating Goff's superior defensive skills

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI correctly predicted Goff's loss to Trey Waters by Decision, demonstrating accuracy in assessing his capabilities. For Brahimaj, the model has a strong track record, correctly predicting his win over Mickey Gall by KO/TKO, his win over Micheal Gillmore by submission, and his loss to Court McGee by decision.

The model's consistent accuracy with both fighters increases confidence in the current prediction, though it's worth noting that Goff's loss to Waters suggests he's not invincible against the right stylistic matchup.

Conclusion

Billy Ray Goff's technical striking precision, body work, and defensive advantages make him the clear favorite against Ramiz Brahimaj. While Brahimaj possesses dangerous submission skills, his defensive vulnerabilities and cardio issues are likely to be exploited by Goff's methodical pressure and devastating body attacks. Expect Goff to weather early grappling attempts before finding his rhythm and potentially securing a mid-to-late round stoppage through accumulated damage.

Analysis: Dustin Jacoby vs Bruno Lopes

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Dustin Jacoby to Win

Score: 5
Odds:
Dustin Jacoby: -192
Bruno Lopes: 148

Dustin Jacoby's Breakdown

Jacoby brings a wealth of experience to the octagon with his technical kickboxing background and 29 professional fights. His recent performances have been mixed, losing three of his last five, but he's coming off an impressive KO victory over Vitor Petrino that showcased his elite timing and counter-striking ability.

Jacoby's game revolves around three signature techniques that have defined his UFC career. First, his devastating calf kicks, which he used to systematically break down opponents like Da Woon Jung and Michal Oleksiejczuk. He throws these with precision, often doubling up on the same leg to compound damage. Second, his straight right hand down the middle, which was the finishing blow against Petrino when he timed it perfectly as Petrino loaded up a wide left hook. Third, his jab-to-body kick combination that he used effectively against fighters like John Allan to maintain distance and control the pace.

Technically, Jacoby excels at distance management. At 6'4" with a 76" reach, he uses his length to keep opponents at the end of his strikes. Against Petrino, he demonstrated excellent patience, waiting for the perfect moment to counter rather than forcing exchanges. This represents a technical evolution from his earlier UFC run, where he was more reckless and willing to trade in the pocket.

What makes Jacoby dangerous is his ability to adapt mid-fight. Against Jung, he noticed his opponent's compromised mobility after landing several calf kicks and immediately capitalized with a right straight as Jung's weight shifted to his damaged leg. Similarly, against Oleksiejczuk, he adjusted his output and angle of attack when his opponent tried to pressure him.

Dustin Jacoby's Technical Vulnerabilities

Despite his striking prowess, Jacoby has shown consistent vulnerabilities that have cost him fights:

1. Defensive positioning during forward pressure: When Jacoby moves forward aggressively, he tends to square his stance excessively. This was evident in his loss to Dominick Reyes, where he squared up while pursuing Reyes to the cage, leaving his centerline exposed. Reyes capitalized with a perfect counter left hand that ended the fight. Similarly, against Menifield, he was caught with power shots when pressing forward with inadequate defensive structure.

2. Vulnerability to explosive entries: Against fighters who can suddenly close distance with power, Jacoby struggles to adjust. In his fight with Menifield, he would control extended sequences with his jab and technical striking, only to get "dinged with one big punch" that would reset the entire exchange. This pattern of dominating for stretches but getting caught by single power shots has become known as "the Rob Font problem" in his game.

3. Predictable rhythm changes: When Jacoby decides to accelerate his offense, he often telegraphs this shift in tempo. Against Reyes, this predictable acceleration allowed his opponent to anticipate the forward momentum and time a perfect counter. His rhythm becomes readable when transitioning from his patient approach to more aggressive combinations.

Bruno Lopes's Breakdown

Lopes enters this fight with an impressive 14-1 record but remains relatively untested at the UFC level with just one fight in the promotion. Against Magomed Gadzhiyasulov, Lopes showed a patient, counter-striking approach built around fundamental boxing techniques.

Lopes's primary weapons include a technically sound jab that he uses to maintain distance and set up his power shots. In the Gadzhiyasulov fight, he established this jab early in the first round, using it to keep his opponent at bay. His second key technique is his straight right hand, which he throws with technical precision rather than looping it. Finally, Lopes showed a surprising willingness to engage in the grappling department, securing five takedowns on fourteen attempts against Gadzhiyasulov.

What stands out about Lopes is his measured approach to combat. He maintains a high guard defensively and doesn't waste energy with unnecessary movement. He's content to wait for counter-striking opportunities rather than forcing exchanges, showing a level of patience unusual for a fighter with limited UFC experience.

Lopes's takedown game adds an interesting dimension to his arsenal. Against Gadzhiyasulov, he completed 5 takedowns, demonstrating that he's not one-dimensional. This ability to change levels could present problems for Jacoby, who has historically struggled with opponents who mix striking and wrestling.

Bruno Lopes's Technical Vulnerabilities

Lopes's limited UFC sample size reveals several concerning technical weaknesses:

1. Limited offensive variety: Against Gadzhiyasulov, Lopes relied almost exclusively on basic combinations and straight punches. This predictable timing on his entries allowed his opponent to anticipate his attacks. Against a veteran striker like Jacoby, this lack of variety could make him easy to time and counter, particularly as Jacoby excels at reading opponents' patterns.

2. Passive positioning against the cage: When pressured toward the fence, Lopes tends to maintain his high guard but doesn't effectively use lateral movement to escape. Against Gadzhiyasulov, this resulted in prolonged periods where he absorbed unnecessary strikes while backing straight up rather than circling out. Jacoby's ability to cut off the cage with his long-range kicks could exploit this tendency severely.

3. Diminishing output under pressure: As his fight with Gadzhiyasulov progressed, Lopes's offensive output decreased significantly when forced to work off the back foot. By round three, his striking became increasingly predictable, relying almost exclusively on single shots rather than combinations. This could be disastrous against Jacoby, who tends to increase his volume as fights progress.

Style Matchup Dynamics

The technical matchup between Jacoby and Lopes presents several clear paths to victory for Jacoby. First, Jacoby's calf kicks should be particularly effective against Lopes, who showed vulnerability to leg attacks against Gadzhiyasulov and lacks the lateral movement to avoid them consistently. These kicks will compromise Lopes's mobility and power generation as the fight progresses.

Jacoby's counter-striking ability also presents a significant advantage. Lopes's tendency to throw single, predictable shots makes him vulnerable to Jacoby's precise counters. We saw this exact scenario play out in Jacoby's fight with Petrino, where he timed a perfect straight right as his opponent loaded up a wide hook. Lopes's more basic striking patterns should be even easier for Jacoby to read and counter.

While Lopes does have the wrestling dimension to his game, completing five takedowns in his UFC debut, Jacoby has shown improved takedown defense in recent outings. Against Cutelaba, despite being taken down eight times in the first round, Jacoby consistently returned to his feet quickly, demonstrating resilience and grappling awareness that has developed throughout his career.

Lopes's passive positioning against the cage is particularly concerning against Jacoby, who excels at using his range to pick apart opponents who back straight up. Jacoby's ability to maintain distance with his jab and front kicks will likely force Lopes into this exact defensive shell, creating a target for Jacoby's precise striking.

Fight Phase Analysis

In the early rounds, expect Jacoby to establish his jab and begin attacking Lopes's lead leg with calf kicks. Jacoby typically starts methodically, using the first round to gather information and identify patterns. Lopes's counter-striking style may initially create a tentative opening frame as both men look to establish their timing.

As the fight progresses to the middle rounds, Jacoby will likely increase his output once he's compromised Lopes's mobility with leg kicks. This is the pattern we saw against Da Woon Jung, where early leg kicks set up increased striking success later. Lopes will likely attempt takedowns as his striking effectiveness diminishes, but Jacoby's improved takedown defense and scrambling ability should allow him to return to his feet quickly.

In the later rounds, the accumulated damage from Jacoby's leg kicks will significantly impact Lopes's movement and power. Jacoby tends to get stronger as fights progress, while Lopes showed diminishing output in the later rounds against Gadzhiyasulov. This cardio differential, combined with the technical striking advantage, strongly favors Jacoby in a potential decision or late stoppage.

Analysis and Key Points

• Jacoby's experience edge is massive - 29 professional fights compared to Lopes's 15, with much higher-level competition
• Lopes's takedown game could present early challenges, but Jacoby has shown the ability to recover quickly from takedowns as seen against Cutelaba
• Leg kicks will be a difference-maker - Jacoby's calf kicks should significantly compromise Lopes's mobility and power as the fight progresses
• Counter-striking advantage clearly favors Jacoby, who has shown elite timing against more dangerous strikers than Lopes
• Cardio and output favor Jacoby in later rounds, as Lopes showed diminishing returns as his fight with Gadzhiyasulov progressed

Understanding the Prediction

Several key statistical factors drive WolfTicketsAI's confidence in Jacoby:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 9.0, reflecting the betting market's strong confidence in Jacoby
• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 3.0, highlighting Jacoby's superior defensive skills
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential boosted the score by 2.0, showing Jacoby's ability to land the more damaging strikes
• Significant Striking Impact Differential and Significant Striking Output Differential each added 1.0, reinforcing Jacoby's striking advantages

Interestingly, Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight decreased the score by 3.0, acknowledging Lopes's wrestling threat, while Recent Win Percentage decreased it by 2.0, reflecting Jacoby's recent struggles with three losses in his last five fights.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has struggled to accurately predict Jacoby's fights, incorrectly picking his last five outcomes except for his win over Michal Oleksiejczuk. This inconsistency is concerning, though the model has been particularly wrong when predicting Jacoby as an underdog, which isn't the case here.

For Lopes, there's no prediction history to analyze, making this a somewhat uncertain matchup from a modeling perspective. However, the statistical advantages for Jacoby are significant enough that the model remains confident despite its past struggles with predicting his fights.

Conclusion

Dustin Jacoby's technical striking advantages, significant experience edge, and ability to adapt mid-fight should prove decisive against Bruno Lopes. While Lopes presents some wrestling threats that could create early challenges, Jacoby's improved takedown defense and superior striking arsenal should allow him to control the fight at range. Look for Jacoby to systematically break down Lopes with leg kicks before finding a late stoppage or clear decision victory.

Analysis: Zachary Reese vs Dusko Todorovic

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Zachary Reese to Win

Score: 16
Odds:
Zachary Reese: -265
Dusko Todorovic: +200

Zachary Reese's Breakdown

Reese brings a dynamic striking arsenal with deceptive power and excellent counter-punching ability to this middleweight clash. His technical approach revolves around calculated striking with precise timing and devastating body work.

Reese's signature techniques include:

1. Left body kick sequence - Reese employs an intelligent kick sequencing technique where he first targets the opponent's arm/guard with a left kick, establishing a defensive reaction, before immediately following with a second left kick placed slightly lower to bypass the guard and impact the ribs or liver area. This was devastatingly effective against Jose Medina, where he systematically broke down his opponent with repeated body kicks.

2. Counter left hook - Reese's most dangerous weapon is his counter left hook, which he delivers with precision when opponents close distance. Against Julian Marquez, Reese created a subtle lateral step to his left as Marquez pressed forward, delivering a perfectly timed left hand counter that landed flush for the knockout.

3. Shoulder-feint to southpaw left straight - Reese frequently creates openings by faking his left shoulder from orthodox stance, stepping off to his left while switching to southpaw, and delivering a powerful left straight. This sequence allows him to slip incoming strikes while simultaneously setting up his counter, as seen in his bout with Azamat Bekoev.

Reese's technical evolution has been impressive. While he once relied more heavily on high-volume combinations, he has transitioned to a more efficient technical approach that emphasizes defensive positioning and counter opportunities. His footwork has become more refined, allowing him to create subtle angles during exchanges rather than moving straight backward when pressured.

Zachary Reese's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. High stance vulnerability to takedowns - Reese maintains a relatively high stance during pressure sequences, walking forward rather than maintaining a lower, more defensively sound posture. This creates opportunities for opponents to shoot under his punches and secure takedowns. Against Bekoev, this vulnerability was repeatedly exploited as Bekoev found success changing levels during Reese's forward pressure.

2. Defensive lapses during retreating sequences - When backing up, Reese has a tendency to drop his lead hand while reaching for kicks, creating momentary openings for straight punches. Specifically, when expecting low kicks and attempting to check or catch them, he leaves his head exposed to follow-up combinations. This vulnerability was exposed in his loss to Cody Brundage.

3. Overcommitment to submission attempts - Reese's most glaring technical vulnerability is his over-commitment to submission attempts when position isn't secure. Against Brundage, he held onto an armbar attempt even after being elevated, leading to a slam finish. This demonstrates a "sunk cost fallacy" approach to submissions - once invested in a potential finish, he's reluctant to abandon it even when the position becomes precarious.

Dusko Todorovic's Breakdown

Todorovic is a pressure fighter with technically sound striking fundamentals and a developing clinch game. His approach centers around methodical combination boxing and intelligent pressure that gradually builds in intensity as fights progress.

Todorovic's signature techniques include:

1. Pressure-based combination boxing - Todorovic relies on compact boxing sequences where he prefers to work in mid-range exchanges. He typically starts with a jab-cross sequence before adding hooks, particularly targeting the body. Against Maki Pitolo, this body work proved crucial, gradually slowing Pitolo's movement and diminishing his explosive counters.

2. Clinch control and dirty boxing - In the clinch, Todorovic demonstrates excellent dirty boxing fundamentals, utilizing short hooks and uppercuts when opponents are pressed against the cage. Against Jordan Wright, he maintained proper posture (hips in, standing tall) while continuing to attack the body from the clinch.

3. Tie dump technique - Todorovic employs a highly effective tie dump (similar to Sui Koi Ashi in judo) where he steps to the side, places his foot in front of his opponent's ankle, and pulls them forward, forcing them to either stumble or fall. This technique allows him to either break the clinch advantageously or send his opponent to their back, as demonstrated effectively against Wright.

Todorovic's technical evolution has been inconsistent. While he's shown improvement in his clinch work and body attacks, his defensive awareness during transitions remains problematic. Since his first professional loss to Punahele Soriano, Todorovic has gone just 2-4 in his last six fights, showing concerning regression rather than evolution.

Dusko Todorovic's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Rush entries without proper defense - Todorovic has a dangerous tendency to bum rush opponents when feeling pressured, leaving his chin exposed during entries. Against Mansur Abdul-Malik, this resulted in him getting caught clean while charging forward without proper defensive structure.

2. Defensive blindspots during clinch breaks - Todorovic shows a significant vulnerability during clinch separation sequences. When breaking from the clinch, he maintains his underhook position but fails to protect his head adequately. This creates a dangerous blind spot where he cannot see strikes coming as he transitions from grappling to striking range. This exact vulnerability was exploited by Chidi Njokuani, who timed a precise elbow as Todorovic was focused on maintaining his underhook position during the clinch break.

3. Durability issues - Todorovic has shown vulnerability to power shots, particularly when exchanging in the pocket. His five losses have included four KO/TKO defeats (to Punahele Soriano, Chidi Njokuani, Christian Leroy Duncan, and Mansur Abdul-Malik), demonstrating a concerning pattern of fragility when hit cleanly.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup heavily favors Reese's counter-striking and body attack game against Todorovic's pressure-based approach. Several key technical dynamics will likely determine the outcome:

• Counter opportunities: Todorovic's tendency to rush forward without proper defense creates perfect openings for Reese's counter left hook. The same technical sequence that finished Julian Marquez could be devastating against Todorovic, who has shown vulnerability to clean counter shots.

• Body work effectiveness: Reese's systematic body attacks, particularly his double-kick setup to the body, will be extremely effective against Todorovic, who has shown vulnerability to body shots in previous fights. Punahele Soriano finished Todorovic with a liver shot, demonstrating this specific weakness.

• Clinch exchanges: While Todorovic excels in the clinch, his defensive vulnerability during clinch breaks plays directly into Reese's counter-striking ability. Reese can land clean counter shots as Todorovic attempts to disengage from clinch positions.

• Defensive awareness: Todorovic's defensive lapses during forward pressure will be exploited by Reese's ability to create subtle angles and counter with power, similar to how Christian Leroy Duncan capitalized on Todorovic's linear movement with a spinning backfist.

Fight Phase Analysis

• Early rounds: Expect Todorovic to establish forward pressure early, looking to back Reese against the fence where he can unleash combinations or initiate clinch exchanges. Reese will likely employ his counter-striking approach, looking to time Todorovic's entries with his left hook or body kicks. Reese's ability to create angles while countering will be crucial in neutralizing Todorovic's pressure.

• Mid-fight adjustments: As the fight progresses, Todorovic's pressure will likely intensify, potentially leading to more reckless entries as he attempts to close distance. This is where Reese's counter-striking will become most dangerous. Todorovic's history suggests he becomes more vulnerable as fights progress, particularly when his initial gameplan isn't working.

• Late rounds: If the fight reaches the championship rounds, Reese's body work will have accumulated significant damage, diminishing Todorovic's movement and offensive output. Todorovic has shown cardio issues in previous fights, with his technique deteriorating significantly as fights progress. This will create more openings for Reese's counter strikes and increase the likelihood of a late stoppage.

Analysis and Key Points

• Durability concerns: Todorovic has been knocked out in four of his five losses, showing vulnerability to clean power shots. Reese has demonstrated one-shot knockout power, particularly with his counter left hook.

• Recent form: Todorovic has lost four of his last six fights, with three coming by knockout. Reese has won three of his last four, with two finishes.

• Technical matchup: Reese's counter-striking style is perfectly suited to exploit Todorovic's defensive vulnerabilities during forward pressure and clinch breaks.

• Body attack advantage: Reese's systematic body attacks will be particularly effective against Todorovic, who has shown vulnerability to body shots in previous fights.

• Warning sign: Reese was recently knocked out by Azamat Bekoev in January 2025, raising questions about his own durability.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds increased the model's score by 16.0, showing strong betting market confidence in Reese
• Significant striking impact differential increased the prediction score by 2.0, reflecting Reese's power advantage
• Striking defense percentage decreased the score by 2.0, indicating some defensive concerns for Reese
• Recent significant striking impact differential increased the score by 1.0, showing Reese's recent striking effectiveness
• Recent win percentage increased the score by 1.0, reflecting Reese's better recent form
• Reach increased the score by 1.0, giving Reese a 3-inch reach advantage

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record predicting these fighters. The model incorrectly predicted Reese would lose to Julian Marquez, who Reese knocked out in the first round. It also incorrectly predicted Reese would defeat Sedriques Dumas, who knocked Reese out in the first round.

For Todorovic, the model has been more accurate, correctly predicting his win over Jordan Wright and his loss to Chidi Njokuani. This suggests the model may have a better read on Todorovic's performances than Reese's.

Conclusion

Zachary Reese has the technical tools to exploit Dusko Todorovic's defensive vulnerabilities. Todorovic's tendency to rush forward without proper defense and his vulnerability during clinch breaks play directly into Reese's counter-striking strengths. While both fighters have shown defensive issues, Todorovic's concerning pattern of knockout losses makes him the more vulnerable fighter in this matchup. Reese's systematic body attacks and precise counter-striking should allow him to control the fight and potentially find a finish. WolfTicketsAI predicts Zachary Reese will emerge victorious in this middleweight clash.

Analysis: Jafel Filho vs Allan Nascimento

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Allan Nascimento to Win

Score: 1
Odds:
Jafel Filho: 128
Allan Nascimento: -164

Jafel Filho's Breakdown

Filho has quickly established himself as a dangerous submission specialist in the UFC's flyweight division, with back-to-back submission victories over Daniel Barez and Ode Osbourne following his UFC debut loss to Muhammad Mokaev. His technical approach centers around creating grappling opportunities where his submission prowess can shine.

Filho's signature techniques include:

1. Methodical False Entries - Against Barez, Filho consistently used partial step-ins without commitment to bait counter-striking attempts. This created openings for his follow-up combinations and takedown entries. He'll feint a jab or step forward, pause to draw a reaction, then capitalize on his opponent's miss.

2. Rear-Naked Choke Setups - Filho has perfected a specific hand-trapping technique from back control. Against Osbourne, he demonstrated this by ignoring the weighted hand when Osbourne tried to build up along the fence, instead using both his hands to trap Osbourne's free hand. This two-on-one advantage created the perfect opening for the rear-naked choke finish.

3. Opportunistic Submission Hunting - Even when losing positional battles, Filho remains dangerous. In round 3 against Mokaev, despite being controlled for much of the fight, Filho nearly secured a fight-ending heel hook during a transition, showing his ability to capitalize on even small opportunities.

Technically, Filho has evolved significantly since his UFC debut. His false entry striking has become more sophisticated, with better disguise and more varied follow-up attacks. He's also improved his defensive awareness when hurt, creating space and recovering rather than shelling up.

Jafel Filho's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Defensive Wrestling Gaps - Against Mokaev, Filho struggled with defending well-timed takedowns, particularly when backed against the fence. He tends to overextend his upper body when defending shots, compromising his base. This makes him susceptible to being lifted and slammed, as Mokaev demonstrated repeatedly.

2. Lead Hook Vulnerability - In the southpaw-orthodox matchup against Barez, Filho showed susceptibility to lead hooks coming over the top of his jab. This vulnerability is particularly pronounced when he initiates combinations, often leaving his head in the pocket after his initial attack. Barez exploited this with several clean counter hooks.

3. Cardio Management Issues - Filho demonstrates a tendency to expend significant energy on explosive submission attempts early in fights. Against Mokaev, this created a visible cardio deficit in later rounds, causing his technical execution to deteriorate, particularly in his defensive wrestling and scrambling ability.

Allan Nascimento's Breakdown

Nascimento is a technically polished grappler with a strong Brazilian jiu-jitsu foundation who has shown impressive control and submission skills in his UFC career. After a controversial split decision loss to Tagir Ulanbekov in his debut, he's rebounded with wins over Jake Hadley and Carlos Hernandez.

Nascimento's signature techniques include:

1. Submission-Oriented Back Control - Against Hernandez, Nascimento showcased his elite back control, utilizing the body triangle to immobilize his opponent while working methodically toward a submission finish. He employs a modified rear-naked choke grip where he hides his choking arm behind his opponent's back, making defense extremely difficult.

2. Half Guard Offense - Nascimento has developed an advanced half guard game, demonstrated against Hadley where he used knee strikes to the body when Hadley fought his hands to prevent head control. When Hadley secured underhooks to create space, Nascimento reached underneath Hadley's hips to prevent escape, constantly working to flatten him.

3. Leg Lock Transitions - Rather than hunting for finishes with leg attacks, Nascimento uses them strategically to sweep opponents or improve position. Against Hadley, his calf slicer attempt wasn't intended as a finishing move but as a mechanism to roll to a dominant position.

Nascimento's technical evolution is evident in his integration of Charles Oliveira-style leg attacks as positional tools rather than submission attempts, and his refined half-guard control mechanics focused on neutralizing common escape techniques.

Allan Nascimento's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Limited Striking Arsenal - Nascimento's stand-up game lacks the technical refinement and diversity of his grappling. Against Ulanbekov, he was able to land some dynamic strikes early but couldn't maintain this success as the fight progressed. His striking has been described as a "poor imitation of Oliveira," making him potentially vulnerable against elite strikers.

2. Striking Defense Gaps - When forced into extended striking exchanges, Nascimento shows vulnerability to being caught with counter shots. Against Hernandez, his defensive reactions appeared delayed at times, with moments where his distance management and counter-striking timing seemed off.

3. Output Decline - Nascimento's output has shown a tendency to drop as fights progress, particularly when faced with persistent pressure. Against Ulanbekov, his submission attempts decreased in frequency and effectiveness in later rounds, possibly due to fatigue or being smothered by his opponent's pressure.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup pits two submission specialists against each other, but with distinct technical approaches to their grappling games. Nascimento's technical advantage lies in his systematic half-guard control and methodical approach to securing dominant positions. His ability to neutralize underhooks with backstopping techniques (reaching underneath the hips) would be particularly effective against Filho's tendency to fight for underhooks when taken down.

Filho's false entry striking could create problems for Nascimento, whose striking defense has shown gaps. However, Nascimento's superior takedown accuracy (44% vs Filho's 40%) and significantly better takedown defense ratio (4.0 vs Filho's 1.0) suggest he'll have the advantage in dictating where the fight takes place.

The key technical matchup will be Nascimento's half-guard control against Filho's butterfly half-guard escapes. Against Mokaev, Filho effectively used butterfly half-guard to create space, but Nascimento's specific counter-techniques to underhooks (as shown against Hadley) could neutralize this strategy.

Filho's opportunistic submission hunting from disadvantageous positions makes him dangerous throughout the fight, but Nascimento's positional awareness and submission defense should allow him to avoid the high-risk situations that Osbourne and Barez found themselves in.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds: Nascimento will likely look to establish his jab and use Filho's aggressive entries against him. Filho's false entries and feints could create openings, but Nascimento's superior takedown defense should prevent him from being put on his back. If Nascimento secures top position early, expect him to implement his methodical half-guard control to neutralize Filho's explosive submission attempts.

Mid-fight adjustments: As Filho begins to feel the pressure of Nascimento's control, he'll likely increase his submission hunting, potentially creating scrambles. This is where Nascimento's leg entanglement transitions could prove decisive, using Filho's aggression against him to secure even more dominant positions.

Championship rounds: Filho's cardio issues could become a significant factor late in the fight. As seen against Mokaev, his technical execution deteriorated as the fight progressed. Nascimento's more measured approach to energy expenditure should give him a significant advantage if the fight reaches the later rounds.

Analysis and Key Points

• Grappling Credentials: Both fighters are submission specialists, but Nascimento's systematic approach to position before submission contrasts with Filho's more opportunistic submission hunting.

• Striking Differential: Nascimento holds a significant advantage in striking impact differential (9.33 vs Filho's 7.33), suggesting more effective striking even with fewer attempts.

• Defensive Wrestling: Nascimento's superior takedown defense ratio (4.0) will be crucial against Filho, who struggled with Mokaev's wrestling pressure.

• Submission Timing: Filho's submission attempts against Osbourne came early in round 1, while Nascimento has shown the ability to secure submissions in both early (Hernandez) and late (Hadley) rounds.

• Technical Evolution: Both fighters have shown improvement, but Nascimento's integration of strikes from dominant positions (particularly knees to the body from half-guard) represents a more sophisticated technical evolution.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI's prediction is influenced by several key statistical factors:

• Recent Win Percentage increased the prediction score by 2.0, reflecting Nascimento's consistent performance
• Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 1.0, highlighting Nascimento's more effective striking
• TrueSkill increased the score by 1.0, with Nascimento's rating (Mu: 29.45) significantly higher than Filho's (Mu: 22.66)
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight increased the score by 1.0, showing Nascimento's more aggressive wrestling approach
• Odds decreased the prediction score by 4.0, indicating the betting market may be overvaluing Nascimento

The model sees Nascimento's technical advantages in multiple areas outweighing the betting market's assessment.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a perfect record predicting both fighters. The model correctly predicted Filho's victory over Ode Osbourne with a score of 0.54, and it accurately predicted Nascimento's win over Carlos Hernandez with a much higher confidence score of 0.76. This consistent success in predicting both fighters adds credibility to the current prediction.

Conclusion

Nascimento's technical advantages in positional grappling, striking impact, and defensive wrestling should allow him to neutralize Filho's opportunistic submission game. While Filho remains dangerous at all times with his explosive submission attempts, Nascimento's methodical approach and superior cardio management will likely lead to increasing control as the fight progresses. Expect Nascimento to weather early dangers, establish his grappling control, and either secure a late submission or a clear decision victory.

Analysis: Ketlen Vieira vs Macy Chiasson

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Macy Chiasson to Win

Score: 12
Odds:
Ketlen Vieira: -102
Macy Chiasson: -125

Ketlen Vieira's Breakdown

Vieira brings a methodical counter-striking approach paired with strong defensive grappling to this matchup. Her UFC career has been defined by her ability to neutralize opponents through tactical counter-punching and clinch control, though her recent performances have shown diminishing returns with losses in three of her last four fights.

Vieira's primary weapon is her counter right hand, which she times exceptionally well against aggressive opponents. Against Holly Holm, she repeatedly caught Holm walking in with this punch, creating enough impact to sway the judges despite being outstruck in volume. Her jab serves as both a distance management tool and a setup for her power right hand, as demonstrated in her win over Miesha Tate where she consistently used her reach to keep Tate at bay.

In the clinch, Vieira excels with her whizzer-based defense. When pressed against the cage by Kayla Harrison in her most recent fight, she repeatedly used overhook control to prevent takedowns and create space. This defensive grappling skill has become her signature, allowing her to neutralize wrestlers despite spending significant time in disadvantageous positions.

Vieira's approach is defined by patience—sometimes to a fault. She waits for opponents to initiate before countering, which has led to low output in several fights. Against Raquel Pennington, this passive approach cost her on the scorecards despite landing the more impactful strikes.

Ketlen Vieira's Technical Vulnerabilities

Vieira's most significant vulnerability is her passive offensive approach. She consistently allows opponents to dictate the pace and positioning of fights, spending long stretches pressed against the cage in defensive postures. Against Pennington, she was backed up consistently and failed to initiate her own offense, leading to a decision loss despite landing some clean counters.

Her lead leg defense presents another exploitable weakness. In her fight against Pennington, she absorbed numerous calf kicks without adequate checking or defensive adjustments. This vulnerability compromised her mobility in the later rounds and limited her ability to establish her counter-striking game.

Vieira also struggles with defensive positioning when retreating. When pressured, she tends to back up in straight lines with her head high and chin exposed. This was evident against Irene Aldana, who exploited this tendency with a perfectly timed hook that led to a knockout victory. Vieira's habit of resetting with her chin high after combinations creates consistent counter opportunities for opponents.

Macy Chiasson's Breakdown

Chiasson brings a physically imposing, pressure-heavy approach to this matchup. With a significant 4-inch reach advantage, she uses her length effectively both at distance and in the clinch. Her recent performances show a fighter who has refined her technical approach while maintaining her physical advantages.

Chiasson's striking is built around her front kicks and straight punches, which she uses to maintain distance before closing for clinch exchanges. Against Mayra Bueno Silva, she effectively used these tools to control range before engaging in damaging clinch work. Her height advantage allows her to generate leverage for devastating elbows in close quarters, as demonstrated when she opened the fight-ending cut on Bueno Silva.

In the clinch, Chiasson excels at using her frame to control opponents against the fence. She's particularly effective with dirty boxing, landing short elbows and knees while maintaining positional control. Against Pannie Kianzad in her most recent fight, Chiasson used this clinch control to set up the takedown that led to her rear-naked choke victory.

Chiasson's ground game has evolved significantly. Once primarily a positional controller, she now effectively transitions to damaging ground strikes and submission attempts. Her submission of Kianzad showed improved back control mechanics and hand fighting for choke setups.

Macy Chiasson's Technical Vulnerabilities

Chiasson's primary vulnerability is her defensive reaction to forward pressure. When opponents push her backward, she tends to retreat in straight lines toward the fence rather than circling out. Bueno Silva exploited this tendency with front kicks that pushed Chiasson to the cage, limiting her movement options.

Her defensive positioning after striking exchanges remains inconsistent. After throwing combinations, Chiasson sometimes resets with her hands low, creating counter opportunities. Irene Aldana capitalized on this vulnerability with a liver shot that led to a TKO loss.

Chiasson also shows vulnerability in her panic reactions when hurt. Against Raquel Pennington, a knee to the body caused Chiasson to shoot for a poorly executed takedown, leaving her neck exposed for the fight-ending choke. This tendency to resort to desperation takedowns without proper setups creates submission opportunities for opponents.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a fascinating clash between Vieira's counter-striking and Chiasson's pressure-based approach. Chiasson's 4-inch reach advantage will be crucial, allowing her to initiate exchanges from outside Vieira's preferred counter range.

Chiasson's front kicks and body attacks match up particularly well against Vieira's tendency to wait for counters. By targeting the body, Chiasson can diminish Vieira's mobility and counter speed without exposing herself to Vieira's power right hand. This was a strategy effectively employed by Pennington, who used consistent body work to slow Vieira down.

In the clinch, Chiasson's height advantage and dirty boxing skills should neutralize Vieira's whizzer defense. While Vieira has shown effectiveness in defending takedowns along the fence, she often remains trapped in defensive positions for extended periods. Chiasson's ability to land damaging strikes in these positions will likely score points even if takedowns aren't completed.

Vieira's counter right hand remains her most dangerous weapon, but Chiasson's reach advantage should allow her to land first in exchanges. If Chiasson maintains discipline with her straight punches and body attacks, she can minimize exposure to Vieira's counters while accumulating damage.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds will likely see Chiasson establishing her jab and front kicks to maintain distance while Vieira looks to counter. Chiasson's higher output and reach advantage should allow her to score effectively while minimizing risk. Vieira typically starts slowly, waiting for clear counter opportunities that may not materialize against Chiasson's rangy attacks.

As the fight progresses into the middle rounds, expect Chiasson to increase pressure and clinch work. This is where her height advantage becomes most significant, allowing her to control Vieira against the fence and land damaging short strikes. Vieira's defensive grappling will prevent takedowns but likely leave her in disadvantageous positions where Chiasson can score.

In the later rounds, Vieira's historical cardio issues could become apparent. Against Pennington, her movement and output diminished significantly in the championship rounds. Chiasson's consistent body work throughout the fight should exacerbate this tendency, allowing her to pull away on the scorecards.

Analysis and Key Points

• Reach advantage favors Chiasson: Her 4-inch reach edge will allow her to land first in exchanges, neutralizing Vieira's counter-striking.
• Clinch dynamics heavily favor Chiasson: Her height and dirty boxing skills will be effective against Vieira's tendency to accept defensive positions along the fence.
• Output differential is significant: Chiasson lands 7.3 strikes per minute compared to Vieira's 5.3, a difference that will likely be magnified by Vieira's counter-focused approach.
• Vieira's downward trend is concerning: She's lost 3 of her last 4 fights, suggesting declining effectiveness of her counter-heavy strategy.
• Body attacks will be crucial: Chiasson's knees and front kicks to the body will diminish Vieira's mobility and counter speed as the fight progresses.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI's prediction is supported by several key statistical factors:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 4.0, reflecting the betting market's confidence in Chiasson
• Striking defense percentage increased the model's score by 1.0, highlighting Chiasson's superior defensive metrics
• Recent average striking output differential increased the score by 1.0, pointing to Chiasson's higher volume

Working against Chiasson in the model: * Significant striking impact differential decreased the score by 3.0, acknowledging Vieira's power advantage * Recent significant striking impact differential decreased the score by 3.0, reflecting Vieira's counter-punching effectiveness * TrueSkill decreased the score by 2.0, indicating Vieira's higher overall skill rating

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record predicting these fighters. The model correctly predicted Raquel Pennington's victory over Vieira but incorrectly picked Holly Holm to defeat her. This suggests the model may undervalue Vieira's counter-striking effectiveness in certain matchups.

For Chiasson, the model correctly predicted her victory over Pannie Kianzad and Irene Aldana's win over her, but incorrectly picked Norma Dumont to defeat Chiasson. This indicates the model has a reasonable understanding of Chiasson's strengths and weaknesses.

Conclusion

Macy Chiasson's reach advantage, higher output, and clinch effectiveness create a style matchup that strongly favors her against Ketlen Vieira. While Vieira's counter right hand remains dangerous, Chiasson's ability to control range and dictate the pace should allow her to accumulate damage while minimizing risk. Vieira's tendency to accept defensive positions along the fence plays directly into Chiasson's strengths in the clinch. As the fight progresses, Chiasson's body work should further diminish Vieira's counter effectiveness, leading to a clear decision victory or potential late stoppage.

Analysis: Kurt Holobaugh vs Jordan Leavitt

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jordan Leavitt to Win

Score: 6
Odds:
Kurt Holobaugh: 146
Jordan Leavitt: -188

Kurt Holobaugh's Breakdown

Holobaugh brings a pressure-based boxing approach to the lightweight division, relying on combination striking and opportunistic grappling. His UFC career has been marked by inconsistency, winning just 2 of his last 5 fights.

Holobaugh's primary weapon is his boxing-centric offense. He typically initiates with a stiff jab followed by a right straight-left hook combination, often finishing with an inside leg kick to disrupt his opponent's stance. Against Kaynan Kruschewsky, this combination allowed him to control distance while creating openings for follow-up attacks. When opponents retreat under pressure, Holobaugh shows excellent timing with his right hand, repeatedly catching fighters as they circle away.

His second signature technique is his reactive clinch work. Rather than seeking prolonged grappling exchanges, Holobaugh uses the clinch to land short, powerful strikes before creating space to return to his preferred boxing range. This was particularly effective against Austin Hubbard, where he used clinch entries to set up the takedown that led to his triangle choke finish.

Holobaugh has shown technical evolution in his grappling approach, particularly in his submission chain attacks. Against Hubbard, we saw a more mature technical approach where he used striking primarily to create grappling entries rather than as his primary finishing tool. When Hubbard defended his armbar attempt by turning away, Holobaugh immediately recognized the triangle opportunity, quickly securing his legs and locking the submission.

Kurt Holobaugh's Technical Vulnerabilities

Holobaugh's primary technical vulnerability is his defensive positioning during extended combinations. When committing to multi-strike sequences, he tends to drop his lead hand, particularly after throwing his jab. Against Alexander Hernandez, this created openings for counter strikes, especially when Hernandez threw in volume. Holobaugh often stands relatively flat-footed when covering up, making him vulnerable to opponents who attack from angles.

A second significant weakness is his tendency to back straight up when pressured. Rather than utilizing lateral movement or angles, Holobaugh often retreats in a linear fashion, making him susceptible to being trapped against the cage. Trey Ogden exploited this tendency by cutting off the cage and forcing Holobaugh into defensive positions where his striking effectiveness was neutralized.

Holobaugh's defensive wrestling has shown inconsistency throughout his career. While he possesses good initial takedown defense, he struggles against sustained wrestling pressure, particularly when opponents chain together multiple takedown attempts. Against Thiago Moises, this vulnerability forced him to expend significant energy defending takedowns, compromising his cardio in later rounds and ultimately leading to a decision loss.

Jordan Leavitt's Breakdown

Leavitt is a technically nuanced grappler with a unique approach that blends unorthodox submission entries with a creative ground game. His 11-3 record includes several highlight-reel finishes, most notably his 22-second slam knockout of Matt Wiman.

Leavitt's primary weapon is his sophisticated front headlock system. Against Matt Sayles, he neutralized the front headlock position by grabbing Sayles' elbow on the choking arm and pulling it deep onto his chest, preventing Sayles from establishing effective choking mechanics or transitioning to back control. This technique gives him defensive control even from seemingly disadvantageous positions.

His second signature technique is his inverted triangle transitions. Leavitt excels at transitioning to unorthodox triangle positions, particularly inverted or reverse triangles from scramble situations. Against Sayles, the finish came via an unexpected inverted triangle position that caught Sayles by surprise while simultaneously working an arm switch/kimura grip, creating a dual-threat submission.

Leavitt has shown significant technical growth in his striking capabilities. Previously known primarily for his grappling, he has developed more confident and technically sound striking, particularly with his front kicks to the body and clinch entries. Against Victor Martinez, he used front kicks and pressure to force Martinez into a defensive shell, creating the opportunity for the clinch entry that led to his KO finish with devastating knee strikes.

Jordan Leavitt's Technical Vulnerabilities

Leavitt's primary technical vulnerability is his limited striking arsenal compared to his grappling. He lacks significant power in his hands and has a limited combination arsenal, making him predictable when forced to strike for extended periods. Against Chase Hooper, this created significant periods of vulnerability when he couldn't establish his grappling game.

A second significant weakness is his defensive wrestling gaps. When unable to initiate his own grappling sequences, Leavitt can be controlled by stronger wrestlers who prevent him from creating the scrambles he thrives in. Against Claudio Puelles, his defensive wrestling, particularly along the fence, showed technical gaps that were exploited, leading to a unanimous decision loss.

Leavitt's cardio management has also been problematic in longer fights. His grappling-heavy approach requires significant energy expenditure, especially when hunting submissions. Against Hooper, this became evident in the later portions of exchanges where his submission attempts became less technically precise as fatigue set in, ultimately leading to him being submitted.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a classic striker vs. grappler dynamic, with several key technical factors that will determine the outcome.

Holobaugh's forward pressure and combination striking could create problems for Leavitt early. Leavitt's tendency to shell up under pressure makes him vulnerable to Holobaugh's right straight-left hook combinations. However, Holobaugh's habit of dropping his lead hand after combinations creates perfect opportunities for Leavitt's reactive takedowns.

Leavitt's front kicks to the body could be particularly effective against Holobaugh, who tends to move forward in relatively straight lines. These kicks would disrupt Holobaugh's rhythm and create openings for Leavitt's clinch entries. From the clinch, Leavitt's knee strikes could be devastating if Holobaugh breaks his posture, as we saw in the Martinez fight.

The most significant technical advantage for Leavitt comes in the grappling exchanges. Holobaugh's submission defense has been exploited before, particularly against fighters who chain submissions together. Leavitt's ability to threaten from multiple positions and transition between submission attempts makes him extremely dangerous if the fight hits the ground.

Historically, fighters with strong submission games like Thiago Moises and Shane Burgos have given Holobaugh significant problems. Leavitt's grappling style, which focuses on creating scrambles and capitalizing on transitions, matches up well against Holobaugh's more straightforward approach.

Fight Phase Analysis

In the early rounds, Holobaugh's pressure boxing will likely allow him to establish control on the feet. His jab-cross-hook combinations could find success against Leavitt's developing striking defense. However, Leavitt's front kicks and clinch entries will become increasingly effective as he reads Holobaugh's timing.

The mid-fight adjustment phase will be critical. Holobaugh typically relies on his durability to maintain forward momentum even when absorbing strikes. However, this approach makes him vulnerable to Leavitt's takedowns and submission attempts. If Leavitt can secure a takedown in rounds 1 or 2, his chain submission attacks could quickly end the fight, similar to how he finished Matt Sayles.

If the fight reaches the later rounds, cardio becomes a significant factor. Both fighters have shown conditioning issues in previous bouts. Holobaugh tends to slow down after expending energy defending takedowns, while Leavitt's submission attempts become less technically precise as he fatigues. This phase favors whoever can impose their game plan earlier and conserve energy.

Analysis and Key Points

• Holobaugh's forward pressure vs. Leavitt's counterattacks - Holobaugh's aggressive style creates openings for Leavitt's reactive takedowns and clinch entries
• Striking exchanges favor Holobaugh - His combination boxing and inside leg kicks will likely be effective against Leavitt's developing striking defense
• Grappling exchanges heavily favor Leavitt - His submission chains and transitions are significantly more advanced than Holobaugh's grappling defense
• Holobaugh's defensive wrestling will be tested - Similar to his fight against Thiago Moises, sustained takedown attempts could drain his cardio
• Leavitt's front kicks and knees from clinch could be fight-changing weapons, as demonstrated in his KO of Victor Martinez

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI's prediction of a Leavitt victory is influenced by several key factors:

• TrueSkill increased the prediction score by 3.0, indicating Leavitt's overall skill level is rated significantly higher than Holobaugh's
• Recent Win Percentage increased the score by 2.0, reflecting Leavitt's better recent performance
• Significant Striking Impact Differential and Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential both increased the score by 1.0, suggesting Leavitt lands more impactful strikes
• Odds decreased the prediction score by 9.0, showing the betting market favors Leavitt more strongly than the model does

The model sees value in Leavitt despite the odds already favoring him, particularly due to his technical advantages in the grappling department and overall skill level.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record predicting both fighters. For Holobaugh, the model correctly predicted his losses to Alexander Hernandez and Trey Ogden but incorrectly predicted he would lose to Austin Hubbard (Holobaugh won by submission) and Kaynan Kruschewsky (Holobaugh won by decision).

For Leavitt, the model correctly predicted his losses to Chase Hooper and Paddy Pimblett but has limited data on his victories. This suggests the model has a good read on Leavitt's limitations but may underestimate his ability to implement his grappling game.

The model's accuracy in predicting both fighters' losses adds confidence to the prediction, though Holobaugh has shown the ability to defy the odds in recent fights.

Conclusion

Jordan Leavitt's technical advantages in the grappling department give him a clear path to victory against Kurt Holobaugh. While Holobaugh's pressure boxing will create challenges early, Leavitt's front kicks, clinch work, and submission game provide multiple avenues to control and finish the fight. Expect Leavitt to weather an early storm before finding a submission in the second round, validating WolfTicketsAI's prediction.

Analysis: Rayanne dos Santos vs Alice Ardelean

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Rayanne dos Santos to Win

Score: 23
Odds:
Rayanne dos Santos: -295
Alice Ardelean: 220

Rayanne dos Santos's Breakdown

Dos Santos brings a calculated approach that blends pressure striking with dominant grappling. Despite her recent 0-2 skid, her technical skills remain sharp. Her game revolves around three key weapons that have proven effective in previous bouts:

First, her lead leg manipulation system creates distance control and offensive opportunities. Against Talita Alencar, she effectively used probing oblique kicks to set up unexpected push kicks to the face, showing excellent hip mobility and disguised setups. This technique significantly altered the fight's momentum, causing immediate swelling and disrupting Alencar's rhythm.

Second, her counter left hook serves as both offense and defense. When Alencar attempted to pressure, dos Santos's counter left hook consistently intercepted low kick attempts, establishing a pattern where Alencar became increasingly hesitant to commit to attacks.

Third, her inside reach single leg takedown has become a signature move. Against Alencar, she secured this takedown by reaching across for the inside of the knee, then driving her opponent to the fence. The most impressive sequence came in the third round when she secured an inside reach single leg, ran Alencar to the fence, then unexpectedly changed directions by pulling her back and running the pipe for a clean takedown.

Dos Santos has shown technical evolution in her recent fights, particularly in her ground control. Rather than pursuing low-percentage submission attempts, she's adopted a more methodical approach of using strikes to create openings for high-percentage submissions. This was evident when she secured a cradle position against Alencar, strategically delivering body strikes that forced her opponent to open her defensive frame, creating the opportunity for an arm triangle.

Rayanne dos Santos's Technical Vulnerabilities

Despite her technical prowess, dos Santos has shown two significant vulnerabilities that Ardelean could exploit:

1. Ring Craft Deficiencies: Despite her ability to get opponents to the fence, dos Santos struggles with maintaining pressure in this position. Against both Alencar and Tomar, she allowed her opponents to circle away after landing initial combinations, failing to cut the cage effectively. This creates a pattern where she must repeatedly work to reestablish favorable positioning, potentially allowing Ardelean opportunities to escape the pressure.

2. Clinch Exit Defense: When breaking from the clinch, dos Santos tends to pull her head straight back while her hands drop momentarily. This creates a vulnerability where opponents can land elbows or hooks during these transitions, as demonstrated when Alencar caught her during these moments. Given Ardelean's pressure-heavy approach and willingness to engage in the clinch, this could be a critical vulnerability.

Additionally, dos Santos has shown an over-reliance on single attacks rather than working in combination. This telegraphs her intentions and creates predictable patterns that technically savvy opponents can exploit. In her fight with Tomar, this tendency allowed her opponent to time counter strikes during dos Santos's entries.

Alice Ardelean's Breakdown

Ardelean is a physically powerful grappler who relies on relentless forward pressure and cage control to create takedown opportunities. Her game is built around three primary weapons:

First, her pressure-based takedown entries allow her to cut off the cage with measured footwork, using feints to provoke reactions before changing levels for single-leg takedowns. Against Melissa Martinez, she employed an effective feint-jab entry, faking a step forward to draw Martinez's counter before committing to a real jab entry. This created the opening for her first successful takedown at 3:42 of round 1.

Second, her body lock takedowns from the clinch have proven highly effective. Against Shauna Bannon, Ardelean excelled at securing double underhooks in the clinch, locking her hands behind her opponent's back, and driving through for takedowns. She pressed Bannon against the fence before changing levels and securing a body lock to complete the takedown.

Third, her half guard control and ground-and-pound allow her to maintain dominant positions while delivering consistent offense. Once securing top position against Martinez, Ardelean immediately implemented her cradle control system. When Martinez attempted to create space by placing her foot on the cage, Ardelean wrapped a tight cradle (securing Martinez's knee and head together) and used it to return her flat to the canvas.

Ardelean has shown technical evolution in her takedown setups. Against Bannon, she displayed more measured entries, using feints and timing her level changes more effectively with striking exchanges. This represents a significant improvement from her earlier tendency to bull-rush forward to secure clinches.

Alice Ardelean's Technical Vulnerabilities

Despite her grappling prowess, Ardelean has shown several exploitable weaknesses:

1. Early Round Defensive Vulnerabilities: Ardelean has shown a concerning tendency to absorb significant damage in early exchanges. Against Martinez, she was visibly hurt by a front kick to the body early in the first round. This pattern suggests potential issues with her defensive awareness during initial exchanges, particularly against opponents with explosive striking like dos Santos.

2. Lead Leg Vulnerability: Ardelean's stance is often heavy on her front foot when advancing, making her lead leg vulnerable to low kicks. She shows limited checking ability and typically responds to leg kicks by attempting to rush forward rather than technically addressing the threat. This aligns perfectly with dos Santos's lead leg manipulation system, potentially creating a significant technical mismatch.

3. Defensive Striking Gaps: When pressuring forward, Ardelean leaves her head exposed while entering the pocket. She tends to advance with minimal head movement and an inconsistent jab, making her susceptible to counter strikes. Against Bannon, she absorbed several clean counter shots while attempting to close distance. Given dos Santos's counter left hook, this vulnerability could prove decisive.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a fascinating clash between two grapplers with different approaches to setting up their takedowns. Dos Santos's lead leg manipulation system matches up perfectly against Ardelean's heavy front foot stance. In previous fights, Ardelean has shown vulnerability to leg kicks, typically responding by rushing forward rather than checking - exactly the reaction dos Santos looks to exploit with her counter left hook.

Dos Santos's counter striking should prove effective against Ardelean's forward pressure. When Ardelean attempts to close distance with her characteristic bull-rush entries, she'll likely walk into dos Santos's counter left hook - the same technique that repeatedly caught Alencar when she committed to attacks.

In the clinch, Ardelean's body lock takedowns will test dos Santos's takedown defense, which has been inconsistent. However, dos Santos's inside reach single leg could prove effective against Ardelean's squared stance. The fighter who secures top position will likely have a significant advantage, as both women excel at maintaining control once they establish dominant position.

Specifically, dos Santos's counter left hook should exploit Ardelean's tendency to advance with minimal head movement. In round 2 against Martinez, Ardelean was repeatedly caught with counter strikes while attempting to close distance. Dos Santos demonstrated the perfect counter to this approach against Alencar, timing her left hook as her opponent committed to forward movement.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds: Expect dos Santos to establish her lead leg manipulation system early, targeting Ardelean's front leg to disrupt her forward pressure. Ardelean will likely respond by increasing her pressure to close distance, potentially walking into dos Santos's counter left hook. This dynamic was evident in Ardelean's fight with Bannon, where she struggled initially with Bannon's mobility and range control.

Mid-fight adjustments: If Ardelean survives the early exchanges, she'll likely adjust her entries as she did against Martinez, using more feints to draw out dos Santos's strikes before timing her level changes. Dos Santos will need to be wary of Ardelean's improved takedown setups, which have evolved from bull-rushing to more measured entries with better timing.

Championship rounds: Cardio could become a factor if the fight reaches later rounds. Ardelean has shown a tendency to slow down after extended grappling exchanges, particularly when unsuccessful in securing takedowns. Dos Santos's more measured approach may preserve her energy for the later rounds, giving her an advantage if the fight goes the distance.

Analysis and Key Points

• Dos Santos's lead leg attacks vs. Ardelean's heavy front foot: Dos Santos's oblique kicks and low kicks should effectively target Ardelean's tendency to place heavy weight on her front foot when advancing.
• Counter striking advantage: Dos Santos's counter left hook should exploit Ardelean's tendency to advance with minimal head movement, similar to how she repeatedly caught Alencar with this technique.
• Grappling chess match: Both fighters excel at maintaining top control but use different systems - dos Santos with her cradle-based control versus Ardelean's half guard pressure.
• Recent form concerns: Both fighters are coming off losses, with dos Santos on a two-fight skid and Ardelean dropping her last two UFC appearances.
• Technical evolution: Both fighters have shown improvements in their recent performances, with dos Santos developing a more integrated striking approach and Ardelean showing more measured takedown entries.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI's confidence in dos Santos stems from several key factors:

• Odds increased the prediction score significantly by 16 points, reflecting the betting market's strong confidence in dos Santos.
• Recent Win Percentage boosted the score by 3 points, despite dos Santos's recent losses.
• Striking Defense Percentage and Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage added 5 points combined, highlighting dos Santos's superior defensive skills.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential and Striking Impact Differential contributed positively, suggesting dos Santos lands the more impactful strikes.
• TrueSkill added another point to dos Santos's favor, indicating her overall skill level is rated higher.

Past Model Performance

This is the first time WolfTicketsAI has analyzed either fighter, so there's no historical prediction data to reference. However, the model's strong confidence score of 23 suggests a high degree of certainty in dos Santos's victory.

Conclusion

Dos Santos's technical advantages in striking defense, counter punching, and lead leg attacks match up perfectly against Ardelean's vulnerabilities. While both fighters bring strong grappling credentials, dos Santos's more refined striking and counter game should allow her to control the distance and punish Ardelean's forward pressure. Look for dos Santos to establish her lead leg attacks early, catch Ardelean with counter left hooks as she rushes in, and potentially secure her own takedowns with her inside reach single leg. WolfTicketsAI confidently predicts Rayanne dos Santos to emerge victorious in this strawweight clash.