UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett

Analysis: Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Paddy Pimblett to Win

Score: 21
Odds:
Justin Gaethje: +190
Paddy Pimblett: -225

Justin Gaethje's Breakdown

Gaethje remains one of the most dangerous strikers at 155, but you're looking at a fighter who's dropped 2 of his last 4 UFC bouts. The Highlight's game is built around devastating leg kicks, pressure, and that springing jab he's developed under Trevor Wittman. Against Fiziev in March 2025, he showed the jab-dip entry where he smooshes his face toward the opponent's chest, grabs behind the head with his left hand, then clubs with an uppercut or right hook. That collar tie work is nasty—he loves holding position and delivering uppercuts from the clinch.

His evolution since the Poirier losses has been real. The right straight to right head kick combo that finished Poirier in their rematch showed new wrinkles. Against Chandler, he accumulated 26 significant leg strikes while absorbing a brutal first round, demonstrating both his durability and tactical patience. His low kicks are the kind that make opponents switch stances immediately—Fiziev learned that lesson twice.

But here's the thing: Gaethje got knocked out cold by Holloway in Round 5 at UFC 300. That's a recent KO loss that can't be ignored. Holloway exploited his predictable ducking pattern with uppercuts throughout, then timed the finish perfectly when Gaethje's mouth was open from breathing through a broken nose. The body work and rhythm changes wore him down systematically.

Justin Gaethje's Technical Vulnerabilities

Predictable Right-Side Dip Entry: Gaethje habitually dips his head to his right when entering exchanges. Fiziev read this in their rematch and started timing left knees and uppercuts to catch him ducking. Against Holloway, this pattern got him hurt repeatedly with uppercuts before the finishing head kick landed down the bridge of his nose. Pimblett could time counters or guillotine attempts off this entry.

Cardio Drain from Wrestling/Grappling: Gaethje openly admits wrestling tires him out—it's why he rarely uses his D1 credentials offensively. Against Oliveira, the constant clinch work and body shots drained his tank before the submission. Poirier and Alvarez both used tactical takedown attempts specifically to exhaust him, even when they didn't complete them. Pimblett's body lock throws and back-taking scrambles could exploit this.

Waist-Bend Weaving: When evading punches, Gaethje hinges at the hips rather than bending at the knees. Eddie Alvarez gave him hell with uppercuts exploiting this, and Poirier capitalized on it too. This makes him a sucker for uppercuts and knee strikes up the middle—exactly what Pimblett could threaten from clinch entries.

Paddy Pimblett's Breakdown

The Baddy just dismantled Michael Chandler—a fighter with similar explosive power to Gaethje—using calf kicks and improved wrestling. That performance wasn't a fluke. Pimblett hacked away at Chandler's lead leg while Chandler squatted low, exploiting a vulnerability that dates back to Chandler's Bellator days against Brent Primus. By Round 2, Chandler was mentally broken.

Pimblett's grappling evolution is the story here. He's moved from Sakuraba-style single leg grinding to effective body lock throws and octopus-style guard passing. Against Chandler, he put his elbow under the armpit, turned to face the legs, and when Chandler turned in, Paddy took his back. That's Marcelo Garcia-level technique. His arm trap to body triangle from back control creates nightmares—opponents have to unlock the triangle, free the arm, then address the choke, all while getting strangled.

His range game has matured too. Against Bobby Green, he used low kicks from outside to force Green to step forward, then counterpunched the entries. That's tactical intelligence compensating for his mechanical striking deficiencies. The long looping right hook he throws—whipping around the guard rather than coming overhead—works because he's typically taller than his opponents.

Paddy Pimblett's Technical Vulnerabilities

Chin Exposure on Jab: When Pimblett jabs, he lifts his head up and keeps his right hand low, almost looking over the exchange to confirm the strike landed. Against Jared Gordon, he got chinned repeatedly with counter jabs and left hooks because of this habit. Gaethje's power could make this catastrophic if he times it.

Striking Mechanics Generally: His non-punching hand drops to chest level while his chin stays elevated. Against Vendramini in his UFC debut, he got cracked with a massive left hook and taken down while still rocked. Every opponent has found his chin at some point. Gaethje's leg kicks and power shots could exploit this if the fight stays at boxing range.

Historical Takedown Execution: While improved, Pimblett's single legs used to involve diving to his knees and grinding through resistance while eating elbows. Against Gordon, he couldn't get takedowns at all. If Gaethje stuffs early attempts and makes Pimblett work, the cardio expenditure could become a factor.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight hinges on whether Pimblett can replicate his Chandler gameplan against Gaethje's leg kick defense. Gaethje's low kicks are more devastating than Chandler's, but Pimblett showed he can absorb damage and continue working his calf kick attack. The question is whether Gaethje's power differential changes that calculus.

Gaethje's predictable right-side dip entry is tailor-made for Pimblett's front headlock game. If Gaethje ducks into Pimblett's chest looking for the collar tie, Paddy could wrap the head and jump a guillotine—exactly how he finished Bobby Green. Gaethje's cardio issues against grappling exchanges favor Pimblett's body lock throws and back-taking scrambles.

However, Gaethje's leg kicks could compromise Pimblett's mobility before the grappling game materializes. Against Barboza and Cerrone, Gaethje's kicks forced immediate stance switches. If Pimblett can't move laterally, his range-based kicking game collapses.

The Holloway fight showed Gaethje can be systematically broken down by body work and rhythm changes. Pimblett doesn't have Holloway's boxing, but his grappling pressure could create similar cumulative damage. Gaethje's submission defense remains a liability—Oliveira ran through him on the mat, and Khabib submitted him in under two rounds.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Expect Gaethje to come out throwing leg kicks immediately—he landed half a dozen on Fiziev in the first minute of both fights. Pimblett needs to weather this storm and establish his own calf kick attack. If Pimblett gets hurt early (as he has in every UFC fight), his recovery and composure will be tested against Gaethje's finishing instincts.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Pimblett survives the early onslaught, his body lock wrestling should start materializing. Gaethje's cardio historically deteriorates when forced to grapple, even defensively. The Chandler fight showed Pimblett can recognize when opponents are breaking mentally and pour on pressure.

Championship Rounds (if applicable): Gaethje's been finished in Round 5 (Holloway) and Round 4 (Poirier I, Alvarez). His output typically drops as fights extend. Pimblett's cardio appears solid, and his grappling control could dominate late rounds if he's not finished early.

Analysis and Key Points

• Gaethje's recent KO loss to Holloway is a major red flag—he got systematically broken down by body work and rhythm changes before being finished in Round 5
• Pimblett's Chandler performance proved he can neutralize explosive power punchers with calf kicks and wrestling
• Gaethje's grappling cardio drain plays directly into Pimblett's body lock throws and back-taking game
• The predictable right-side dip that Gaethje uses for entries could be exploited by Pimblett's front headlock and guillotine attacks
• Pimblett's chin exposure remains concerning against Gaethje's power, but he's shown recovery ability in every UFC fight
• Gaethje at 36 with significant accumulated damage versus Pimblett riding momentum from a career-best win

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence is relatively low (21), reflecting the competitive nature of this matchup. Key factors:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 11.0—Pimblett is the betting favorite, which the model accounts for
• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 3.0—Gaethje's 2-2 in his last 4 hurts him here
• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 3.0—Pimblett's defensive numbers look better statistically
• Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 2.0—supporting Pimblett's improved defense
• Win Streak Diff decreased the score by 2.0—Gaethje's inconsistency versus Pimblett's current run
• TrueSkill decreased the score by 1.0—Gaethje's higher rating slightly favors him, but not enough to flip the prediction

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has struggled with Gaethje predictions—the model picked against him in his wins over Fiziev (both times) and Poirier, going 1-4 overall on his fights. That's a significant caution flag.

For Pimblett, the model is 5-1, correctly predicting his wins over Chandler, Ferguson, Gordon, Leavitt, and Vargas. The only miss was picking Bobby Green, who Pimblett submitted in Round 1.

The model's track record strongly favors trusting Pimblett predictions while being skeptical of Gaethje calls.

Conclusion

Pimblett's evolved wrestling, calf kick attack, and Gaethje's recent KO loss create a path to victory for The Baddy. Gaethje's power remains dangerous, but his cardio issues against grappling, predictable entries, and submission vulnerabilities align poorly against Pimblett's strengths. WolfTicketsAI sees Pimblett grinding out a decision or finding a late finish as Gaethje's accumulated damage catches up with him.

Analysis: Sean O'Malley vs Song Yadong

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Sean O'Malley to Win

Score: 17
Odds:
Sean O'Malley: -200
Song Yadong: +170

Sean O'Malley's Breakdown

O'Malley enters this fight coming off back-to-back losses to Merab Dvalishvili—a submission in their rematch and a unanimous decision in their first meeting. Before that skid, he was riding high as bantamweight champion with wins over Aljamain Sterling (KO, Round 2) and Marlon Vera (unanimous decision).

Signature Techniques:

1. The Dart (Shifting Left Straight): From southpaw against orthodox opponents, O'Malley throws his left straight while stepping past at 90 degrees, bouncing into the opposite stance. He used this extensively against Vera in their rematch, creating angles and exiting danger. His corner called it "the Dillashaw." He's since evolved this by feinting the dart exit, then switching direction and throwing a 1-2 instead.

2. Front Kick to Body Setup: O'Malley uses front kicks to bait opponents into chasing him. Against Sterling, he threw front kicks to the body, and when Sterling lunged forward, O'Malley bounced back to the open side and landed the knockout left hand over the top. He nearly finished Merab with this same front kick in Round 5 of their first fight.

3. Open Side Counter: His bread-and-butter finish. As a southpaw against orthodox fighters, when they throw their right hand, O'Malley slides back to his left and throws his left hand over the top. This is how he knocked out Sterling—a textbook counter after Sterling over-committed chasing a front kick.

Technical Evolution:

Against Vera in their rematch, O'Malley showed significant growth. He worked in combination beautifully—jabbing, dipping, throwing body punches, coming up with head shots. He added knee counters against ducking opponents, slotting them up the middle of Vera's high forearms guard. His stance-specific kicking improved too: rear leg body kicks from open stance, lead leg high kicks and wheel kicks from closed stance.

Sean O'Malley's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Cage Positioning and Center Control: Against Merab, O'Malley voluntarily conceded the center when pressured by feints alone. He retreated in straight lines to the fence rather than angling out. Once there, he burned significant energy trying to escape while Merab simply followed and waited for fatigue. Any pressure fighter who can cut the cage will exploit this.

2. Back Body Lock Defense: When opponents secure the back body lock, O'Malley's response of separating hands and turning back in actually facilitates their control. Against Merab, his butt-back posture when pushed forward enabled kosoto gari (small outer reap) trips repeatedly. Merab turned chest-to-back and swept his leg out over and over.

3. Half Guard Bottom Position: In the Merab rematch, O'Malley turned into his opponent from bottom half guard, exposing his neck to a guillotine. Merab achieved "double enclosure"—hand all the way through with the back of his hand on O'Malley's collarbone—and transitioned to a north-south choke for the finish.

Song Yadong's Breakdown

Yadong is coming off a unanimous decision win over Henry Cejudo, showcasing his elite takedown defense and devastating kick-catch counters. Before that, he dropped a decision to Petr Yan but has otherwise been on a tear with wins over Chris Gutierrez, Ricky Simon (TKO, Round 5), and Marlon Moraes (KO, Round 1).

Signature Techniques:

1. Kick Catch to Counter Punch: Yadong's most distinctive weapon. He catches or checks incoming kicks and immediately leaps in with power punches, particularly the right hook. Against Cejudo, when Henry threw a body kick with his right leg, Yadong caught it and hammered him with a right hook to the face. This reactive counter-striking is elite.

2. Counter Left Hook: His left hook troubled Cejudo from both stances. Against Ricky Simon, he set up the left hook using level changes—feinting body shots to get Simon to drop his right hand, then popping up with the hook. He dropped Simon with this punch at the end of Round 4 and again in Round 5 for the finish.

3. Single Leg with Direction Change: Yadong picks up the single leg, runs his opponent toward the fence, then changes direction and takes his head outside to finish. Against Gutierrez, he grabbed the single, ran to the fence, then freed his hands and hit the body and head—a creative wrestling-to-striking transition.

Technical Evolution:

Yadong has evolved from a pure Sanda striker into a "wrestle-banger." His takedown defense has become elite—he defended 7 of 9 attempts against Simon and stuffed Cejudo's wrestling throughout. His body-head combination work has improved significantly, and he's shown better leg kick defense by pulling his lead leg away rather than just trying to counter.

Song Yadong's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Cage Cutting and Ring Craft: Yadong gets opponents to the fence but releases pressure almost immediately, allowing them to escape. Against Gutierrez, as soon as his opponent started circling toward the left hook and it fell short, Gutierrez was out the side door. He doesn't maintain pressure.

2. Susceptibility to Cuts/Elbows: Against Sandhagen, an upward elbow sliced his eyebrow open, with blood trickling into his eye. The thin skin around his brow makes him vulnerable to cuts that can lead to doctor stoppages—exactly how the Sandhagen fight ended.

3. Limited Technical Depth in Striking: His approach is "meat and potatoes"—functional but not sophisticated. He doesn't utilize his jab effectively to establish range control. He relies primarily on timing basic power combinations rather than diverse setups, feints, or varied attacks.

Style Matchup Dynamics

O'Malley's front kick game could be problematic against Yadong's kick-catch counters. If Yadong catches O'Malley's front kick and immediately leaps in with the right hook, that's a dangerous exchange for O'Malley. However, O'Malley's exceptional foot recovery after front kicks—getting his feet down and bouncing back to the open side—may neutralize this threat.

O'Malley's dart exits and lateral movement should exploit Yadong's poor cage cutting. When Yadong gets O'Malley to the fence, O'Malley can throw his left straight and step past at 90 degrees, jogging around the cage to reset. Yadong has historically let opponents escape rather than maintaining pressure.

Yadong's left hook could trouble O'Malley's dipping patterns. Against Vera, when O'Malley dipped to stay in range for counters, he got caught with uppercuts. Yadong's left hook from both stances could time similar dips.

O'Malley's reach advantage (72" vs 67") is significant. He can work his jab and front kicks from distance where Yadong struggles to close. Yadong's lack of jab usage means he'll have to walk through O'Malley's range without establishing his own.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: O'Malley typically starts measured, using front kicks and jabs to establish range. Yadong may take time to download O'Malley's timing—he spent the first four minutes sizing up Khandare in his UFC debut before landing the finish. Expect O'Malley to control distance early with his reach advantage.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Yadong can't close distance, he may attempt more wrestling entries. O'Malley's takedown defense (66.7%) is decent but not elite. However, Yadong's takedown accuracy (38.1%) suggests he won't consistently put O'Malley down. O'Malley may start adding dart feints to 1-2 combinations as he did against Vera in later rounds.

Championship Rounds (if applicable): O'Malley's cardio held up against Vera and Merab, though his output declined against sustained wrestling pressure. Yadong's conditioning is solid—he finished Simon in Round 5. If this goes deep, Yadong's power remains dangerous, but O'Malley's movement and volume should accumulate points.

Analysis and Key Points

• O'Malley's reach and movement vs. Yadong's cage cutting deficiencies: O'Malley's 5-inch reach advantage and lateral exits should keep him safe from Yadong's power. Yadong's inability to maintain fence pressure means O'Malley can reset at will.

• Kick-catch danger: Yadong's reactive counters off caught kicks are elite. O'Malley must be careful with his front kick timing or risk eating a right hook.

• Counter-striking chess match: Both fighters excel at countering. O'Malley's open side counter and Yadong's kick-catch to punch create a timing battle. Whoever reads the other first wins exchanges.

• O'Malley's recent losses came against elite wrestling pressure. Yadong is not Merab. His wrestling is functional but not relentless. O'Malley should be able to keep this fight standing.

• Yadong's cut susceptibility: O'Malley's elbows and knees could open Yadong up. A cut leading to a doctor stoppage is a realistic outcome.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence score of 17 reflects a moderate lean toward O'Malley, driven by several key factors:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 9.0 — O'Malley's -200 line suggests the market views him as the clear favorite, and the model incorporates this betting wisdom.

• Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 8.0 — O'Malley's 34.07 differential versus Yadong's 7.53 shows O'Malley lands with more damage relative to what he absorbs.

• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 2.0 — O'Malley's recent striking impact (35.82) remains superior despite his losses.

• Reach increased the score by 2.0 — O'Malley's 72" reach versus Yadong's 67" provides a meaningful distance advantage.

• TrueSkill increased the score by 1.0 — O'Malley's rating (35.75 Mu) is slightly below Yadong's (37.52 Mu), but the model still favors O'Malley overall.

• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 1.0 — O'Malley's 33% recent win rate (1-2 in last 3) versus Yadong's 67% (2-1) is a concern.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with O'Malley: - Correct: Predicted O'Malley over Vera (0.69 score) — he won by unanimous decision. - Correct: Predicted Merab over O'Malley in their rematch (0.70 score) — Merab won by submission. - Incorrect: Predicted O'Malley over Merab in their first fight (0.50 score) — Merab won by decision. - Incorrect: Predicted Sterling over O'Malley (0.63 score) — O'Malley won by KO. - Incorrect: Predicted Yan over O'Malley (0.78 score) — O'Malley won by split decision.

For Yadong: - Correct: Predicted Yadong over Cejudo (0.63 score) — he won by decision. - Correct: Predicted Yadong over Gutierrez (0.77 score) — he won by decision. - Correct: Predicted Sandhagen over Yadong (0.62 score) — Sandhagen won by doctor stoppage. - Correct: Predicted Yadong over Moraes (0.27 score) — he won by KO. - Incorrect: Predicted Simon over Yadong (0.32 score) — Yadong won by TKO.

The model has been wrong about O'Malley multiple times, particularly underestimating him against elite competition. However, it correctly identified his vulnerability to Merab's wrestling. For Yadong, the model has been largely accurate.

Conclusion

O'Malley's reach, movement, and striking impact differential give him clear paths to victory against Yadong. While O'Malley's recent losses to Merab exposed wrestling vulnerabilities, Yadong doesn't present that same relentless pressure threat. Yadong's poor cage cutting means O'Malley can work his dart exits and reset at will. The kick-catch danger is real, but O'Malley's foot recovery and open side counters should allow him to outpoint Yadong from distance. WolfTicketsAI sees O'Malley returning to the win column here.

Analysis: Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Derrick Lewis

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Derrick Lewis to Win

Score: 18
Odds:
Waldo Cortes Acosta: +285
Derrick Lewis: -350

Waldo Cortes Acosta's Breakdown

"Salsa Boy" rides a hot streak into UFC 324, coming off back-to-back first-round knockouts over Shamil Gaziev and Ante Delija within a three-week span. The Dominican heavyweight has shown elite finishing power with his right hand—a weapon he's developed from his days as a professional baseball pitcher. Against Gaziev, Cortes Acosta used a crisp jab to set up a devastating right hand that left Gaziev unconscious before he hit the floor. The Delija fight showcased his mental toughness: after being poked in the eye and fighting with roughly 20% vision, he still found the knockout less than 30 seconds after the restart.

His signature techniques include: - Jab-to-right-hand combination: Against Gaziev, he used this setup twice to score knockdowns in 82 seconds - Counter right hand from the cage: When backed against the fence by Delija, he uncorked a rapid right that dropped his opponent - Forward pressure with volume: Against Spivac, he maintained a high pace, landing 6.21 significant strikes per minute

Cortes Acosta has evolved since his decision loss to Sergei Pavlovich in August 2025. He's described the change as "the old Waldo is back again"—more patient, more composed, but still hunting knockouts. His recent win percentage of 67% and four wins in his last six fights show a fighter hitting his stride at 34 years old.

Waldo Cortes Acosta's Technical Vulnerabilities

Leg Kick Defense (High Severity): This has been a consistent problem throughout his career. Against Marcos Rogerio de Lima, leg kicks had him "stumbling within the first minute" and visibly compromised his movement. Against Jared Vanderaa, he absorbed repeated calf kicks without checking, and against Chase Sherman, the same pattern emerged. He plants heavy on his lead leg, making it an easy target. Lewis has shown he can utilize leg kicks when needed.

Cage Positioning Under Pressure (Medium Severity): Cortes Acosta tends to back himself to the fence when facing forward pressure. Against Delija, he was backed up and absorbing punches before the eye poke incident. Against Pavlovich, he "fought with his back foot on the fence the entire time." Lewis's pressure-based approach could exploit this tendency.

Lack of Power Against High Guards (Medium Severity): Against Spivac, his punches frequently landed on forearms and the top of the head rather than clean facial strikes. Spivac's committed high guard with chin tucked neutralized much of his offense. Lewis, despite his limitations, has shown defensive awareness when hurt.

Derrick Lewis's Breakdown

"The Black Beast" holds the UFC record for most knockouts in heavyweight history with 16. At 40 years old, Lewis remains dangerous because his power never diminishes—whether fresh or exhausted, his right hand carries fight-ending consequences. Against Tallison Teixeira in July 2025, Lewis overcame a significant height and reach disadvantage (4 inches height, 80-inch reach on Teixeira) by timing a left hook counter as Teixeira retreated and jabbed simultaneously.

His signature techniques include: - Right hand over the jab: Lewis throws his power right across the top of opponent's jabs, intercepting jabbing opponents - Bait and counter trap: Lewis exaggerates being hurt to draw opponents into rushing in recklessly, then looks for knockout counters - Bridge and roll escape from mount: His two-handed wrist grab roll from bottom position has become a signature defensive technique

Lewis's ground escapes deserve attention. Against Jailton Almeida, he spent five rounds underneath an elite grappler, constantly trying to get back up. His wrist control from bottom mount frustrated Almeida so thoroughly that Almeida stood up from mount to break grips, allowing Lewis to escape. Against Rodrigo Nascimento, he used an inside trip to reverse the wrestling dynamic before finishing in round three.

Derrick Lewis's Technical Vulnerabilities

Cardio/Conditioning (High Severity): Lewis struggles in extended fights. Against Ciryl Gane, he was completely broken down over three rounds, landing only 16 significant strikes while absorbing 98. Against Jailton Almeida, his escape techniques failed completely when gassed in round four—he "rolled and missed the hand" because fatigue caused late timing. Five-round fights are particularly problematic.

High-Volume Striking Exchanges (Medium Severity): Lewis is not effective when forced into extended striking exchanges. As noted, "If there's 100 strikes being thrown on the feet in a fight, he's not doing what he wants." Cortes Acosta's 6.21 significant strikes per minute could push Lewis into uncomfortable territory.

Body Attack Susceptibility (High Severity): Against Tai Tuivasa, body kicks had Lewis "standing lock-legged and taking them in just the ugliest way possible." Every kick to Lewis's body looks like he wants to give up. Cortes Acosta has shown willingness to attack the body with kicks and punches.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a classic power-vs-power heavyweight collision with contrasting approaches. Cortes Acosta's volume-based boxing and forward pressure could theoretically overwhelm Lewis's low-output style. However, Lewis's counter-punching timing poses significant danger to Cortes Acosta's tendency to move forward in straight lines.

Cortes Acosta's weapons that could exploit Lewis: - His high striking output (6.21 significant strikes per minute) could push Lewis into uncomfortable exchanges - Body kicks could accumulate damage on Lewis's historically vulnerable midsection - Forward pressure could back Lewis to the cage where his output typically drops

Lewis's weapons that could exploit Cortes Acosta: - Counter right hands over Cortes Acosta's jab—a technique Lewis used effectively against Teixeira - Leg kicks to Cortes Acosta's lead leg, which he's historically failed to check - The bait-and-counter trap against Cortes Acosta's aggressive forward movement

The Pavlovich fight provides a template for beating Cortes Acosta: back him to the fence, pop him with punches, move back when he swings, then counter with short right hands. Lewis has shown this exact pattern against multiple opponents.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds (1-2): Cortes Acosta typically starts strong with volume and pressure. His recent knockouts have come early—82 seconds against Gaziev, 3:59 against Delija. If he can establish his jab and find the right hand early, Lewis could be in trouble. However, Lewis's power remains constant regardless of timing, and his counter-punching is most effective when opponents are fresh and aggressive.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If the fight reaches round three, Lewis's cardio becomes a factor. His output drops significantly, and his defensive techniques become less reliable. Cortes Acosta's conditioning has held up better in recent fights, though he showed fatigue against Pavlovich.

Championship Rounds (If Applicable): This is a three-round fight, which favors Lewis. He doesn't need to worry about rounds four and five where his limitations become most apparent.

Analysis and Key Points

• Lewis's TrueSkill rating (33.59) significantly exceeds Cortes Acosta's (25.96), reflecting Lewis's longer track record against higher-level competition
• Cortes Acosta's recent KO streak (Gaziev, Delija) shows he's dangerous, but neither opponent possessed Lewis's counter-punching timing
• Lewis's takedown defense (88.9%) neutralizes any wrestling threat from Cortes Acosta
• The odds (-350 Lewis) heavily favor the veteran, and the model's low confidence score (18) suggests this is closer than the betting line indicates
• Cortes Acosta's leg kick vulnerability could be exploited by Lewis, who has shown willingness to use kicks when needed
• Lewis's body vulnerability could be exploited by Cortes Acosta's varied attack

Understanding the Prediction

The SHAP analysis reveals interesting dynamics:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 17.0—the model is essentially fighting against the heavy favorite status, suggesting Lewis's -350 line may be slightly inflated
• Recent Win Percentage increased the score by 2.0—both fighters are winning at 67% recently, but Lewis's wins came against tougher opposition
• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 2.0—Lewis's 40.56% significant striking defense edges Cortes Acosta's 55.86%, but Lewis's ability to survive damage matters more than avoiding it
• TrueSkill decreased the score by 1.0—despite Lewis's higher rating, the model sees some uncertainty
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight decreased the score by 1.0—Lewis's 2.36 attempts versus Cortes Acosta's 0.82 suggests Lewis may look to mix in wrestling

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with both fighters:

For Cortes Acosta: The model correctly predicted his wins over Delija, Spivac, Spann, Arlovski, Brzeski, and Sherman. However, it incorrectly picked Robelis Despaigne over him and incorrectly picked him to beat Marcos Rogerio de Lima (he lost). The model has been right 7 of 9 times on Cortes Acosta fights.

For Lewis: The model incorrectly predicted Tallison Teixeira to beat Lewis (Lewis won by KO). It correctly predicted Lewis over Nascimento but incorrectly picked Lewis over Tai Tuivasa (Lewis lost by KO). The model has struggled with Lewis's unpredictable knockout power—he's beaten fighters the model favored and lost to fighters the model thought he'd beat.

Caution: Lewis's ability to defy predictions with single-punch knockouts makes him a wild card. The model's 18-point confidence score reflects this uncertainty.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI picks Derrick Lewis to defeat Waldo Cortes Acosta. Despite Cortes Acosta's recent knockout streak and higher volume output, Lewis's counter-punching timing, superior takedown defense, and proven ability to end fights with single shots give him the edge. Cortes Acosta's tendency to move forward in straight lines and his vulnerability to leg kicks play directly into Lewis's strengths. The "Black Beast" has been finishing heavyweights for over a decade, and while Cortes Acosta represents a legitimate threat, Lewis's experience and power should carry him to victory—likely via knockout when Cortes Acosta overcommits on an attack.

Analysis: Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Natalia Silva to Win

Score: 23
Odds:
Natalia Silva: -410
Rose Namajunas: +310

Natalia Silva's Breakdown

Natalia Silva rides a seven-fight UFC win streak into this bout, having beaten every opponent the UFC has thrown at her since arriving in 2022. Her game centers on long-range counterstriking with feints and kicks, transitioning to looping left hooks when opponents close distance.

Signature Techniques:

1. Lead Leg Head Kick - That deceptive kick comes up from nowhere and catches opponents clean. Against Tereza Bleda, she timed a spinning back kick perfectly as Bleda changed levels for a takedown, ending the fight at 1:27 of round three.

2. Looping Left Hook Counter - When opponents step to her, she swings that left hook with an almost boneless whipping motion. Against Jessica Andrade, this punch repeatedly snapped Andrade's head back while Silva circled away from danger.

3. Feint-Heavy Distance Game - Against Alexa Grasso, Silva's feints combined with kicks from long range completely neutralized Grasso's offense. She circled freely for 15 minutes because Grasso couldn't cut the cage.

Technical Evolution:

Silva has transformed from a "flicky kicks, swinging hands" fighter into someone with genuine stopping power. Her jab against Andrade physically moved the former champion backwards with each connection. She's added creative kicks adapted for cage-backed fighting—including a hatchet kick and fence-braced push kicks that give her options even when cornered.

Natalia Silva's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Cage Management - Silva habitually backs herself to the fence before engaging. Against Andrade, she spent an enormous amount of time with her back foot on the cage. Against a smarter pressure fighter who can actually cut angles, this tendency becomes dangerous. She was running along the fence with her chin up after throwing combinations—sketchy positioning that a more explosive opponent could exploit.

2. Susceptibility to Grappling/Throws - Analysts project she'll struggle against elite grapplers who can close distance and implement clinch work. Against Bleda, she nearly got finished by a tight triangle choke in round one and only survived because the bell sounded. Her submission defense in guard remains a question mark.

3. Dependent on Opponent Mistakes - Her dominance over Grasso came largely because Grasso refused to cut the cage. Against Araujo, Silva's risky fence fighting went unpunished because Araujo was too timid. When opponents actually pressure intelligently, her limited technical depth could be exposed.

Rose Namajunas's Breakdown

Rose Namajunas has won three of her last four at flyweight, bouncing back from a loss to Erin Blanchfield with a solid decision over Miranda Maverick. At 32, she remains one of the most technically skilled strikers in women's MMA.

Signature Techniques:

1. Stance-Switching to Open Stance - Rose switches stances in motion while circling, immediately throwing the rear hand down the middle. Against Amanda Ribas, this created timing issues throughout the fight as she threaded punches through Ribas's guard.

2. Counter Left Hook - That piston-fast left hook dropped Maverick in round three as she initiated clinch work. Against Zhang Weili at UFC 261, she timed a lead-leg head kick that ended the fight in 78 seconds—demonstrating her elite timing on counters.

3. Body Lock Takedowns - Rose's grappling remains underrated. Against Zhang in their rematch, she secured critical takedowns in rounds four and five using double-underhook body locks, maintaining top position for nearly the entire final round.

Technical Evolution:

Rose has shown more offensive wrestling at flyweight than she did at strawweight. Against Maverick, she surprised observers by initiating takedowns rather than purely defending. Her combination of striking and ground game versatility makes her difficult for one-dimensional fighters.

Rose Namajunas's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Leg Kick Defense - Rose cannot stop a low kick to save her life. Against Ribas, every landed kick buckled her leg and sent her flying. Jedrzejczyk landed 54 leg kicks to Rose's 5 in their rematch. Any opponent with a competent low kick game will find a willing target.

2. Body Shot Vulnerability - She got kneed in the body against Fiorot and almost cried. Against Karolina Kowalkiewicz, body knees in the clinch completely drained her cardio. This weakness has been exposed multiple times throughout her career.

3. Cardio/Pacing in Championship Rounds - Rose consistently slows in later rounds, coming down off the balls of her feet and becoming more stationary. Against Ribas, her output dropped noticeably in rounds three and four. Against Jedrzejczyk, her feet visibly slowed from accumulated leg damage.

4. Power at Flyweight - Rose lacks sufficient power to move opponents or discourage pressure at 125 pounds. Her shots bounce off heads without really moving them. Against Fiorot, she was shooting dreadful takedowns and falling down legs because her striking wasn't earning respect.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a fascinating clash between two counterstrikers who prefer to fight at range.

Silva's Advantages:

Silva's feint-heavy kicking game could frustrate Rose's timing-based counters. When Rose switches stances and steps forward with the rear hand, Silva's looping left hook could catch her entering. Silva's leg kicks—particularly inside low kicks and calf kicks—could systematically destroy Rose's footwork-dependent game. Against Andrade, Silva's inside low kicks buckled her opponent's leg immediately. Rose's documented inability to check kicks makes this a glaring exploitation point.

Rose's Advantages:

Rose's stance-switching and varied angles could confuse Silva's defensive reads. Silva tends to back herself to the fence and throw three punches before running out the side door—Rose's counter left hook could time these exits. Rose's grappling threat adds a dimension Silva hasn't faced at this level. If Rose can secure takedowns, Silva's submission defense in guard was nearly exploited by Bleda's triangle choke.

Historical Parallels:

This resembles the Kowalkiewicz fight where Rose was eaten alive in the clinch by Muay Thai-style body work. Silva doesn't have Kowalkiewicz's clinch game, but she does have the leg kicks that accumulated damage throughout that fight.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds:

Silva's feints and kicks should establish range early. Rose typically starts fights moving well and picking her shots, but Silva's length and kicking volume could compromise Rose's footwork before she establishes rhythm. Expect Silva to target the lead leg immediately.

Mid-Fight Adjustments:

If Rose's legs hold up, her stance-switching could create timing issues for Silva's counters. Rose may look to initiate clinches or takedowns to disrupt Silva's kicking game. Silva's cardio has been tested—she maintained pace against Andrade and Grasso over three rounds, but Rose's championship round experience could matter in a five-round fight.

Championship Rounds:

Rose's documented cardio issues in later rounds versus Silva's consistent output creates a concerning dynamic. If Silva's leg kicks have accumulated, Rose's footwork-dependent game could collapse entirely. However, if Rose can secure takedowns, Silva's guard work remains questionable.

Analysis and Key Points

• Silva's leg kicks versus Rose's inability to check them is the defining technical mismatch. Rose's footwork disappears when her lead leg gets chewed up.

• Both fighters prefer counterstriking at range, which could create a tactical stalemate early. Someone has to lead, and Silva's feint game may draw Rose into exchanges on Silva's terms.

• Rose's grappling threat is real but Silva's takedown defense has improved. Against Araujo, Silva fought off takedowns while maintaining her striking.

• Silva's habit of backing to the fence could give Rose opportunities to time counters during her exits, but Rose lacks the power to make Silva pay.

• Rose has lost to grapplers (Blanchfield, Esparza) and pressure fighters (Fiorot) at flyweight. Silva isn't either of those, but her leg kicks could accomplish what pressure couldn't.

Understanding the Prediction

The model heavily weights odds (+17.0), reflecting Silva's significant betting favorite status. Her significant striking impact differential (+6.0) shows she consistently outlands opponents with meaningful strikes—she's averaging nearly 50 more significant strikes than her opponents per fight.

Recent significant striking impact differential (+2.0) and striking impact differential (+2.0) reinforce that Silva's volume and accuracy advantages are current, not historical artifacts. Her TrueSkill rating (+1.0) reflects her unbeaten UFC run against increasingly difficult competition.

Striking defense percentage (+1.0) favors Silva's ability to avoid damage while landing. The only negative factor was average striking output differential (-1.0), suggesting Rose's total volume could be competitive even if her impactful strikes lag behind.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a perfect 5-0 record predicting Natalia Silva's fights, including confident picks against Grasso (0.72), Andrade (0.70), and Leonardo (0.84). The model has consistently identified Silva as the superior fighter.

For Rose Namajunas, the model is 4-1 in recent predictions. It correctly picked Rose over Maverick (0.53), Cortez (0.51), and Ribas (0.53), but also correctly predicted her losses to Blanchfield and Fiorot. The one miss was the Esparza rematch where Rose lost via split decision despite being a 0.76 favorite—a fight so inactive it became infamous.

The model's confidence in Silva (23) is lower than some of her previous picks, suggesting this is a competitive matchup. But the model has never been wrong about Silva.

Conclusion

Silva's leg kick game against Rose's documented inability to defend them creates a clear path to victory. Rose's footwork-dependent counterstriking requires healthy legs, and Silva has shown she can systematically compromise an opponent's base. While Rose's grappling adds a wrinkle, Silva's takedown defense has improved and her length makes clinch entries difficult.

WolfTicketsAI picks Natalia Silva to extend her unbeaten UFC streak. The leg kicks will accumulate, Rose's movement will deteriorate, and Silva's counters will find their mark as the fight progresses.

Analysis: Arnold Allen vs Jean Silva

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jean Silva to Win

Score: 5
Odds:
Arnold Allen: +215
Jean Silva: -255

Arnold Allen's Breakdown

Arnold Allen is a TriStar-trained southpaw who operates as a "big banger" rather than a volume fighter. His game centers on explosive entries from distance, using his power left hand as both an offensive weapon and emergency counter. Against Giga Chikadze, corner advice to throw 2-3 punch combinations instead of single shots made a significant difference—when he committed to volume, he found success walking Chikadze down.

His signature left hand to the body is a thing of beauty. He creates real distance on the punch, moving both feet on the jab then moving both feet again on the left to the body. Against Dan Hooker, his rear hand parry to 1-2 pattern was devastatingly effective—every meaningful connection came from that simple sequence. He also possesses a dangerous ninja choke that nearly caught Movsar Evloev when Evloev pushed into him from the fence.

Allen's calf kick deserves mention. He's one of the few southpaws who can effectively land the lead leg calf kick with a step-up motion. Against Kattar, he opened with outside leg kicks and used them to compromise movement before the fight-ending sequence.

His defensive wrestling has improved dramatically since early career struggles against Makwan Amirkhani and Mads Burnell. He hasn't given up a single takedown since those fights. Against Evloev, he controlled one of Evloev's hands every time he got pushed to the fence, preventing the grip lock.

Arnold Allen's Technical Vulnerabilities

Low Lead Hand Position on Entry: Allen dangles his lead hand very low when lunging in. Against Evloev, this created a massive problem—Evloev's simple jab intercepted him repeatedly because Allen's head moves forward into the punch trajectory. He got dropped by one jab and wobbled by another. As an explosive, minimalist fighter, being consistently intercepted is both physically and mentally draining.

Limited Combination Variety: His offensive output is built almost exclusively around 1-2 patterns. Against Max Holloway, this predictability was brutally exposed. Holloway's constant circling, feinting, and angled retreats meant Allen could never establish his preferred range. When he fell short on committed attacks, his head remained on the centerline, eating counter right hooks.

Ring Cutting Deficiencies: Allen fails to use the cage strategically. Against Holloway, he followed him around the octagon rather than cutting angles, allowing Holloway to reset at will. This is disastrous against movers.

Jean Silva's Breakdown

Jean Silva is a pressure-based counter-striker with legitimate knockout power who trains with the Fighting Nerds camp. His game is built on "elusive aggression"—forward movement that draws opponents in before sudden violent acceleration on counters.

His counter left hook against southpaws is exceptional. He slips his head inside and throws the left hook across the top of the jab, immediately following with a right straight. Against Melsik Baghdasaryan, this combination worked perfectly, lining up his power shots. Against Westin Wilson, he timed Wilson's karate-style entries with hooks from either stance, punishing the lack of defensive coverage.

Silva's Muay Thai foundation shows in his elbow work. He made the astute observation that combination punchers must remain in range long enough for an elbow to slice across and open them up. His spinning back elbow nearly finished Drew Dober at the end of Round 2—a devastating technique that came seemingly out of nowhere.

His ninja choke is a legitimate threat. Against Bryce Mitchell, he snapped it up when Mitchell drove forward recklessly, locked the figure-four grip, placed his head over Mitchell's neck to prevent escape, and rolled through for the finish. He actively hunts this submission when opponents shoot for takedowns.

Jean Silva's Technical Vulnerabilities

Susceptibility to Calf Kicks: Silva ignores low kicks and doesn't adequately check them. Diego Lopes immediately established the calf kick and Silva just absorbed them, allowing damage to accumulate on his lead leg.

Vulnerability to Upper Body/Clinch Takedowns: His over-reliance on the guillotine against leg attacks creates a predictable pattern. Lopes exploited this by going straight to the back rather than shooting low. When Silva spun for a back kick, Lopes stuck to his back and easily mounted him.

Susceptibility to Collar Tie/Uppercut Combinations: When Lopes grabbed his head and threw short uppercuts, even non-loaded shots lifted Silva's head into follow-up hooks. There's a moment in their fight where Silva feels Lopes reaching for his head and literally trips over himself trying to retreat—the psychological impact was visible.

Recent KO Loss Warning: Silva was knocked out by Diego Lopes via back elbow in their September 2025 fight. This is a significant concern—fighters who've been KO'd recently can be vulnerable to the same fate again.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents fascinating technical questions. Allen's southpaw stance means Silva will be in his preferred open-stance matchup where his counter left hook thrives. However, Allen's low lead hand position when entering could be a gift for Silva's timing.

Allen's 1-2 pattern predictability plays directly into Silva's wheelhouse. Silva specifically noted that combination punchers must stay in range long enough for elbows to land—Allen's committed entries without adequate hand fighting could leave him exposed to Silva's counters and elbow work.

The calf kick dynamic is interesting. Allen's step-up calf kick from southpaw is one of his best weapons, and Silva historically ignores low kicks. This could be a significant accumulation point for Allen if he commits to attacking Silva's lead leg early.

Allen's ninja choke threat mirrors Silva's own submission game. Both fighters hunt the guillotine when opponents shoot. This could create hesitation in any wrestling exchanges.

The key question: Can Allen's power left hand find a home before Silva's counter timing catches him entering with that dangerously low lead hand?

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Silva's counter timing should be sharp early. Allen's tendency to feel out opponents with single shots plays into Silva's game—he wants opponents to "open up a bit" before landing counters. Expect Silva to establish his left hook timing against Allen's entries. Allen should prioritize calf kicks to compromise Silva's movement before committing to boxing exchanges.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Allen can't land clean in the first two rounds, his minimalist approach becomes problematic. Against Evloev and Holloway, being consistently intercepted was mentally and physically draining. Silva's psychological warfare through constant glove touches and friendly interaction could further disrupt Allen's rhythm. Allen may need to increase volume and commit to combinations rather than single shots.

Championship Rounds (if applicable): Allen's cardio has been tested over five rounds against Holloway and Evloev. Silva's fights have been shorter—his recent wins came via stoppage. If this goes deep, Allen's experience in championship rounds could matter, but his conservative approach when ahead (like Round 3 against Sodiq Yusuff where he got outlanded 31-2) might allow Silva back into the fight.

Analysis and Key Points

• Silva's counter timing vs. Allen's low lead hand is the critical matchup. Allen got dropped by simple jabs against Evloev when stepping in—Silva's counter left hook is far more dangerous.
• Allen's calf kicks could accumulate damage since Silva historically ignores low kicks. This is Allen's clearest path to disrupting Silva's game.
• Both fighters hunt the ninja choke, which could create hesitation in grappling exchanges.
• Allen's 1-2 predictability plays into Silva's game. Silva specifically targets combination punchers who stay in range.
• Silva was recently KO'd by Diego Lopes—a significant warning flag about his durability.
• Allen has lost 2 of his last 3 UFC fights (Evloev, Holloway), suggesting a possible downward trend despite the Chikadze win.

Understanding the Prediction

The SHAP data reveals interesting dynamics:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 10.0—Silva is the heavy favorite (-255), and the model typically regresses toward underdogs.
• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 6.0—Silva's 57.28% striking defense is solid.
• Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 4.0—Silva maintains good defensive numbers.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight increased the score by 2.0—suggesting wrestling activity favors the prediction.
• TrueSkill decreased the score by 1.0—Allen's higher TrueSkill rating (39.81 vs. 25.0) slightly favors him.
• Reach decreased the score by 1.0—Allen's 70" reach vs. Silva's 69" is marginal but noted.

The model sees Silva's defensive striking metrics and recent form as key factors, while Allen's experience and reach provide slight counterweights.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with both fighters:

Arnold Allen: The model correctly predicted his win over Chikadze (0.60 score) and correctly picked against him in the Evloev loss. However, it incorrectly picked Allen over Holloway (0.35 score) and incorrectly picked Kattar over Allen. That's 3-2 on Allen-related predictions.

Jean Silva: The model correctly predicted his wins over Drew Dober (0.52) and Charles Jourdain (0.59), but incorrectly picked him over Diego Lopes (0.54)—a fight Silva lost by KO. That's 2-1 on Silva predictions, with the loss being a knockout that raises durability concerns.

The model's miss on the Lopes fight is notable given Silva's recent KO loss. However, Allen's profile differs significantly from Lopes—he's not the same kind of pressure fighter who can get to Silva's back.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI picks Jean Silva to defeat Arnold Allen. Silva's counter-striking timing should exploit Allen's low lead hand position on entries—the same vulnerability that got Allen dropped by Evloev's jabs. Allen's predictable 1-2 patterns give Silva exactly what he wants: combination punchers who stay in range long enough to be countered. While Allen's calf kicks could accumulate damage and his experience in longer fights provides a path, Silva's power and timing make him the pick here. The recent KO loss to Lopes is concerning, but Allen doesn't present the same clinch-to-back-take threat that Lopes did.

Analysis: Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Umar Nurmagomedov to Win

Score: 31
Odds:
Umar Nurmagomedov: -1500
Deiveson Figueiredo: +850

Umar Nurmagomedov's Breakdown

Umar Nurmagomedov brings elite Dagestani grappling with a twist—he's more aggressive about back takes than his famous cousin Khabib. His signature chain wrestling sequences are relentless. Against Mario Bautista at UFC 321, he landed 11-of-14 takedowns and accumulated over 10 minutes of control time. When Bautista threw body kicks, Umar caught them and immediately transitioned into tani otoshi variations for quick dumps to the mat.

His back control game is suffocating. Once he secures the body triangle, opponents rarely escape cleanly. Against Bautista, he demonstrated a crab hook mat return from back body lock—pulling on hips while sitting backwards and kicking out to trip his opponent. This technique mirrors what Alexandre Pantoja uses at flyweight.

On the feet, Umar's evolved significantly. Against Cory Sandhagen, his jab looked sharp and he showed legitimate two-handed combinations. His knee-feint-to-step-through punching is particularly dangerous—he raises his left knee threatening a kick, then steps through with a 1-2 into orthodox. This motion hurt Merab Dvalishvili in Round 1 of their title fight.

His kick-to-takedown chain is devastatingly simple: throw a kick, opponent backs up, wait for them to step back in, then dive on the legs. Sandhagen had no answer for this timing.

Umar Nurmagomedov's Technical Vulnerabilities

Ducking Head on Level Changes: Umar has a persistent habit of dropping his head when shooting takedowns. Against Bautista, a flying knee caught him flush in Round 2 and dropped him. He acknowledged this himself post-fight, noting that Khabib constantly reminds him to fix this. Figueiredo's uppercut timing could exploit this tendency.

Championship Round Cardio: The Merab fight exposed a dramatic cardio collapse. In Round 4, Umar went from fighting normally to looking like he wanted to quit within moments. His recovery between rounds was insufficient—he'd come out with energy in Round 5 but fade within two minutes. Against Merab's relentless pressure, he simply couldn't maintain his technical execution.

Leg Lock Vulnerability: Against Bautista, he got caught in a dangerous toe hold/heel hook early in Round 1. He escaped but admitted the submission was close. Figueiredo has shown 50/50 entries and leg entanglement awareness.

Deiveson Figueiredo's Breakdown

Figueiredo has reinvented himself at bantamweight as a wrestling-heavy fighter. His signature technique is bizarre but effective—a pull counter motion that transitions directly into a double leg. Against Montel Jackson, he used this repeatedly throughout their split decision win. It shouldn't work, but the unusual timing creates lead time on what's essentially a reactive shot.

His power remains dangerous at 135. Against Marlon Vera, he dropped him late in Round 5 with a straight right, proving he can hurt bigger bantamweights. His body shots troubled Vera throughout, and his strike-to-takedown timing was "flawless"—throwing a punch, pulling back from the return, then immediately shooting on the hips.

Figueiredo's cross counter off the jab defined his win over Rob Font. He waits for opponents to jab, pulls back, then throws a right hand over the top. When Font started ducking without punching, Figueiredo adjusted with a forward-driving uppercut that caught him clean on the chin.

His clinch wrestling variety has expanded significantly—inside trips, trap hook dumps, single legs with pipe runs, and over-under fence trips with knee taps. Against Font, he showed crazy variety that wasn't present during his flyweight reign.

Deiveson Figueiredo's Technical Vulnerabilities

Left Hook Defense: This is chronic and career-long. Figueiredo has never slipped or blocked a left hook effectively. Brandon Moreno landed his left hook for free across all four of their fights. The finishing sequence in their fourth fight came when Moreno parried Figueiredo's kick and immediately jumped in with the left hook that swelled his eye shut.

Wide Stance Exploitation: Figueiredo's deep, wide stance optimizes his rear hand power but leaves his lead leg dangerously exposed. Petr Yan attacked with side kicks to the knee throughout their fight, particularly in Round 2, compromising Figueiredo's base and limiting his offensive output. He was dropped by an uppercut when he ducked into Yan's timing.

Volume Deficit: Against Yan, Figueiredo landed only 53 significant strikes to Yan's 121. He was shutout 50-45 on all three scorecards despite remaining dangerous. His low output style gets him outworked against high-pace fighters who can survive his power.

Back Defense: Against Sandhagen, once Cory secured the back with a body triangle, Figueiredo couldn't escape. His hand-fighting was insufficient—Sandhagen peeled his hands apart and turned back into him repeatedly. The fight ended via heel hook in 50/50, exposing his limited leg lock knowledge.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Umar's chain wrestling presents the most dangerous threat to Figueiredo. When Figueiredo shoots his pull-counter-to-double-leg, Umar's whizzer counters and scrambling ability could turn those entries into back exposure. Against Sandhagen, Figueiredo's back take attempts failed repeatedly because Sandhagen simply peeled his hands apart.

Figueiredo's uppercut timing could exploit Umar's head-ducking tendency on level changes. The same vulnerability that got Umar dropped by Bautista's knee is exactly what Figueiredo's forward-driving uppercut targets.

However, Umar's kick-to-takedown chain is difficult to defend. Figueiredo's wide stance makes him vulnerable to being knocked off balance when backing up from kicks—the same dynamic Yan exploited with side kicks. Once Umar gets the fight to the mat, his back control with body triangles has proven nearly inescapable against UFC-level competition.

Figueiredo's guillotine threat from bottom guard is real—he's submitted multiple opponents this way. But Umar shoots head-outside singles specifically to avoid guillotine exposure, a technique drilled into him by Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov's system.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Expect Umar to establish his kicking game and look for reactive takedowns. Figueiredo will try to time his pull-counter-to-double-leg when Umar advances. The first successful takedown will be critical—if Umar gets top position early, he'll look to accumulate control time and threaten the back.

Mid-Fight: If Figueiredo can keep the fight standing into Round 2, his power becomes increasingly dangerous as Umar potentially shows cardio decline. However, Umar's cardio issues were specifically against Merab's relentless pressure—Figueiredo's lower output might not trigger the same collapse.

Late Rounds: Figueiredo's recent win percentage is 33%—he's lost two of his last three. His cardio held up against Yan for five rounds, but he was comprehensively outworked. If this fight goes deep, Umar's grappling control should dominate unless Figueiredo can land something significant.

Analysis and Key Points

• Umar's takedown volume is elite: 4.23 takedowns per fight recently, with 9+ attempts. Figueiredo defends only 65.6% of takedowns recently.
• Figueiredo was recently KO'd: Sandhagen finished him via heel hook/TKO in May 2025. Fighters who've been stopped recently often get stopped again.
• Figueiredo's recent form is concerning: 1-2 in his last three, with losses to Yan (shutout decision) and Sandhagen (TKO).
• Umar's striking defense is superior: 67.9% significant striking defense versus Figueiredo's 45.4%.
• The odds reflect reality: Umar at -1500 is heavily favored for good reason. His grappling control should neutralize Figueiredo's power.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence score of 31 is relatively modest, but several SHAP features drove the prediction:

• Odds increased the score by 19 points—the betting market strongly favors Umar, and the model weighs this heavily.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential added 5 points—Umar lands clean while absorbing little (+35.2 recent differential versus Figueiredo's -8.7).
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight added 3 points—Umar's 9.24 attempts per fight creates constant grappling pressure.
• Striking Defense Percentage added 2 points—Umar's 59% defense versus Figueiredo's 40% recent defense.
• TrueSkill added 1 point—Umar's rating (38.55) edges Figueiredo's (37.82).

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a perfect 6-0 record predicting Umar Nurmagomedov's fights, including correctly picking him over Sandhagen (0.63 confidence) and Bautista (0.81 confidence). The model also correctly predicted his loss to Merab, picking Dvalishvili at 0.57.

For Figueiredo, the model is 4-4—notably wrong on his wins over Vera and Font, but correct on his losses to Yan and Sandhagen. The model has struggled with Figueiredo's upset potential but accurately identified when he'd lose to elite competition.

Conclusion

Umar Nurmagomedov should control this fight through relentless chain wrestling and suffocating back control. Figueiredo's power remains dangerous, but his recent form (1-2, including a TKO loss) and technical vulnerabilities against grapplers make him a significant underdog for good reason. Umar's cardio concerns are real, but Figueiredo's low output likely won't trigger the same collapse that Merab's pressure caused. WolfTicketsAI picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win via grappling dominance.

Analysis: Ateba Gautier vs Andrey Pulyaev

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Ateba Gautier to Win

Score: 27
Odds:
Ateba Gautier: -800
Andrey Pulyaev: +550

Ateba Gautier's Breakdown

Gautier enters this middleweight clash as a massive favorite, and the numbers back it up. The Cameroonian knockout artist has gone 3-0 in the UFC with all three wins coming by first-round stoppage. Standing 6'4" with an 81-inch reach, he's a physical specimen who uses that length to devastating effect.

Signature Techniques:

1. Clinch Knees: Against Jose Daniel Medina at UFC Mexico City, Gautier backed his opponent to the cage and delivered a perfectly timed standing knee that put Medina out cold at 3:32 of round one. This wasn't luck—it's a weapon he sets up by pressuring hurt opponents toward the fence.

2. Elbows in the Clinch: When Tre'ston Vines ducked in on his hips, Gautier immediately punished him with sharp elbows. He reads level changes well and makes opponents pay for sloppy entries.

3. Power Right Hand/Overhand: The overhand right that hurt Medina and sent him retreating to the cage demonstrates Gautier's ability to land fight-changing power shots. He sets these up behind a stiff jab and leg kicks.

Technical Evolution:

Gautier has shown improved composure across his three UFC outings. Against Medina, when his opponent smiled and taunted after being hurt, Gautier stayed patient and methodically closed the distance rather than rushing in recklessly. His striking accuracy sits at 53.5%, and he's averaging a ridiculous 7.05 knockdowns per fight in UFC competition.

Ateba Gautier's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Untested Grappling Defense at Elite Level: While his takedown defense shows 100% in UFC stats, he hasn't faced a legitimate wrestler yet. On Dana White's Contender Series, Yura Naito did take him down in round one before Gautier finished him. Against a fighter who can chain wrestling attempts, questions remain.

2. Limited Deep Water Experience: All three UFC wins came in round one. We simply don't know how Gautier handles adversity or championship rounds. His cardio and ability to maintain technique when tired remain unknown quantities.

3. Opposition Quality: The UFC has clearly been building Gautier up with favorable matchups. Medina was on a losing streak, Vines was undersized, and Valentin was another setup fight. He hasn't been truly tested yet.

Andrey Pulyaev's Breakdown

Pulyaev comes in as a significant underdog with a 1-1 UFC record. His lone victory came against Nick Klein via second-round TKO, where he showed some interesting tactical wrinkles.

Signature Techniques:

1. Stance Switching to Southpaw: Against Klein, Pulyaev switched to southpaw in round two to create new angles after surviving early pressure. This adjustment created the opening for his finish.

2. Lead Hand Trap to Punch: An unorthodox technique where he posts his lead hand on the opponent's lead hand while simultaneously throwing the rear hand. It's not textbook boxing, but it worked against a fatigued Klein.

3. Body Kicks: The fight-ending body kick against Klein demonstrated Pulyaev can capitalize on tired opponents. When Klein was gassed from his first-round output, that body kick dropped him.

Technical Evolution:

Pulyaev showed between-round adaptability against Klein, completely changing his approach when he recognized his opponent had emptied the tank. However, his loss to Christian Leroy Duncan by unanimous decision suggests he struggles against higher-caliber opposition.

Andrey Pulyaev's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Cage Defense and Clinch Escapes: Against Klein, Pulyaev spent most of round one pinned against the fence with Klein's left underhook controlling him while eating right hands. He had no answer for this pressure until Klein gassed out. Gautier's ability to back opponents to the cage and work in the clinch is a massive red flag here.

2. Early Round Pressure Response: Pulyaev essentially conceded round one to Klein's aggression, banking on his opponent tiring. Against Gautier, who finishes fights in round one, this survival-mode approach could be fatal.

3. Striking Defense: His recent significant striking defense sits at just 29.75%—meaning he's getting hit with over 70% of significant strikes thrown at him. Against a power puncher like Gautier, that's a recipe for disaster.

⚠️ Warning: Pulyaev has lost more than 50% of his last 5 fights (1-2 in last 3, 33% recent win percentage). This suggests a possible downward trend.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup heavily favors Gautier's strengths while exposing Pulyaev's weaknesses.

Gautier's weapons vs. Pulyaev's gaps: - Gautier's clinch knees and elbows directly target Pulyaev's demonstrated inability to escape cage pressure. Against Klein, Pulyaev had no answer when pinned with an underhook—Gautier is far more dangerous in that position. - Gautier's 81-inch reach versus Pulyaev's 78-inch reach means Pulyaev will need to close distance against a fighter who punishes entries with elbows and knees. - Pulyaev's 29.75% recent significant striking defense against Gautier's power is a nightmare scenario.

Pulyaev's potential paths: - If Pulyaev can survive the early storm and drag Gautier into round two or three, we'd be in uncharted territory for the Cameroonian. - Pulyaev's body kicks could be effective if he can create distance, but Gautier's pressure style rarely allows opponents to work at kicking range.

The Klein fight showed Pulyaev can capitalize on fatigued opponents, but Gautier has never shown cardio issues because he's never needed to go past round one.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Gautier will look to establish his jab, work leg kicks, and back Pulyaev toward the cage—exactly what he did to Medina. Given Pulyaev's tendency to concede early rounds and his poor cage defense, expect Gautier to find his range quickly. The danger zone for Pulyaev is any time his back touches the fence.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Pulyaev survives round one (a big if), his stance-switching and unorthodox hand-fighting could create some confusion. However, Gautier has shown composure when opponents try to get cute—Medina's taunting didn't faze him.

Championship Rounds: Unlikely to get there. Neither fighter has shown what they have in deep waters, but Gautier's finishing instincts suggest he won't let this go to a decision.

Analysis and Key Points

• Size Mismatch: Gautier's 3-inch reach advantage and 4-inch height advantage will make it difficult for Pulyaev to close distance safely.
• Finishing Rate: Gautier has finished all three UFC opponents in round one. Pulyaev's survival strategy of weathering early storms won't work against someone who doesn't slow down—he just ends fights.
• Cage Pressure: Pulyaev's biggest vulnerability (fence defense) aligns perfectly with Gautier's best finishing setup (backing opponents to the cage for clinch work).
• Striking Differential: Gautier's significant striking impact differential sits at +11.33 while Pulyaev's is at -21.0. That's a 32-point swing in Gautier's favor.
• Recent Form: Gautier is 3-0 in UFC with three first-round finishes. Pulyaev is 1-2 in his last three fights with a 33% recent win percentage.

Understanding the Prediction

The SHAP data reveals what's driving this prediction:

• Odds increased the score by 19 points—the betting market sees this as a massive mismatch, and the model agrees.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential added 5 points—Gautier lands clean while avoiding damage; Pulyaev gets outstruck badly.
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential added 2 points—Gautier's recent performances show even better striking efficiency.
• Recent Win Percentage added 2 points—Gautier at 100% recent wins versus Pulyaev's 33%.
• Striking Defense Percentage and Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage each added 1 point—Gautier's 51% defense versus Pulyaev's sub-30% recent defense.
• Reach added 1 point—that 3-inch advantage matters.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight decreased the score by 1 point—Pulyaev does attempt takedowns, which could theoretically disrupt Gautier's rhythm, though he's never actually completed one in UFC competition.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI correctly predicted Gautier's victory over Robert Valentin with a 0.79 confidence score. That fight ended exactly as expected—first-round KO/TKO.

For Pulyaev, the model predicted Nick Klein to win with 0.70 confidence, but Pulyaev pulled off the upset via second-round TKO. This is worth noting—Pulyaev has shown he can defy expectations when opponents gas out. However, the circumstances were specific: Klein emptied his tank with unsustainable pressure. Gautier doesn't fight that way; he's efficient and finishes before cardio becomes a factor.

Conclusion

Gautier is a physical freak with legitimate knockout power, and Pulyaev's defensive liabilities play directly into his strengths. The Cameroonian's clinch work—those knees and elbows—will be available all night against a fighter who couldn't escape Nick Klein's fence pressure. Pulyaev's only path to victory requires surviving long enough for Gautier to tire, but three consecutive first-round finishes suggest that's not happening.

WolfTicketsAI has Gautier winning this one, and the technical matchup supports it completely. Expect another highlight-reel finish for "The Silent Assassin."

Analysis: Nikita Krylov vs Modestas Bukauskas

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Modestas Bukauskas to Win

Score: 0
Odds:
Nikita Krylov: 117
Modestas Bukauskas: -137

Nikita Krylov's Breakdown

Krylov enters this fight in freefall. He's dropped two straight by first-round KO—Dominick Reyes caught him with counter left hands when he shifted forward recklessly, and Bogdan Guskov timed him with a counter right when he returned to his kicking game. This is a fighter who has been figured out.

The Ukrainian possesses legitimate tools from his Kyokushin karate background. His body kicks carry real power, and he showed against Johnny Walker that he can grind out wins with wrestling when needed—securing takedowns in all three rounds and working elbows from top position. Against Volkan Oezdemir, he demonstrated he can start fast and finish with volume.

But Krylov's signature techniques have become liabilities:

1. Shifting Attacks: When throwing his right hand, Krylov's head gets too far ahead of his hips, forcing him to step his back foot forward to catch himself. This "shifting by necessity" rather than purposeful technique got him countered badly against Reyes.

2. Kyokushin Kicking: His kicks are legitimate, but he abandons them for boxing where he's less effective. Against Guskov, he started kicking, switched to boxing, then got smoked the moment he returned to kicking.

3. Guillotine Hunting: He's been submitted multiple times attempting guillotines from bad positions—the Von Flue choke loss to OSP, the triangle from Paul Craig when he got cocky and threw a backfist in guard.

At 33, Krylov has lost 4 of his last 6 UFC fights. His recent win percentage sits at just 33%.

Nikita Krylov's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Counter Right Hand Susceptibility: Krylov consistently walks into counter punches when initiating exchanges. Against Reyes, he ran face-first into counter left hands after being conditioned to chase. Against Guskov, he walked onto a counter right the moment he went back to kicking. His head position when throwing strikes leaves his chin exposed.

2. Strategic Inconsistency: Krylov abandons his best weapon—his kicking game—in favor of boxing where he's outmatched. He lacks the discipline to stick to a gameplan, making him predictable once opponents establish their timing.

3. Submission Defense Against Chokes: He's been submitted via Von Flue choke (OSP), arm triangle (Blachowicz), guillotine (Cirkunov), and triangle (Craig). When he forces submission attempts from disadvantageous positions, elite grapplers capitalize.

Modestas Bukauskas's Breakdown

Bukauskas has quietly strung together four consecutive wins since returning from a devastating knee injury. The oblique kick from Khalil Rountree that hyperextended his knee in 2021 seemed career-threatening—torn meniscus, MCL, and an ACL "hanging on like tooth floss." But the Lithuanian has rebuilt himself.

His recent performances show a fighter who's matured tactically:

1. Disciplined Top Control with Elbows: Against Paul Craig, Bukauskas refused to make the mistakes that feed Craig's dangerous guard. He stayed tight on top, kept his hands inside, and delivered devastating short elbows that sliced Craig's ear open. This patience against a submission specialist was impressive.

2. Pressure Fighting with Cage Cutting: Against Rafael Cerqueira, he recognized poor ring awareness immediately and walked his opponent to the fence repeatedly, finishing with a left hook-right straight combination.

3. Clinch Striking: His UFC debut TKO over Michailidis came via "Travis Browne elbows" from the clinch—a technique he's replicated throughout his career.

Training with Team Aspinall has clearly elevated his game. At 31, he's entering his technical prime with newfound confidence.

Modestas Bukauskas's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Takedown Defense Concerns: Pre-fight analysis has consistently identified this as a weakness. Against Oleksiejczuk, he was walked down and pressured to the fence. While he's improved, elite wrestlers could still exploit this gap.

2. Handling Aggressive Pressure Early: Against Jimmy Crute, Bukauskas was immediately overwhelmed by explosive forward pressure and power punching, getting finished in round one. He can be blitzed if he doesn't establish his rhythm.

3. Wide Stance Vulnerability: His kickboxing stance keeps his feet further apart, making his lead leg a prime target. Rountree exploited this with the fight-ending oblique kick. Krylov's Kyokushin kicks could theoretically attack this.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup heavily favors Bukauskas's evolved skillset against Krylov's deteriorating form.

Bukauskas's Weapons vs. Krylov's Gaps: - Bukauskas's disciplined pressure can exploit Krylov's tendency to back straight to the fence when pressured - His counter right hand timing could catch Krylov shifting forward recklessly—the same pattern that got Krylov KO'd twice recently - If the fight goes to the ground, Bukauskas's improved top control and elbow ground-and-pound can neutralize Krylov's submission attempts

Krylov's Weapons vs. Bukauskas's Gaps: - Krylov's body kicks could theoretically target Bukauskas's wide stance - His wrestling showed against Walker that he can grind—but Bukauskas's takedown defense has improved - Krylov's power remains dangerous if he lands clean, but his recent performances suggest he won't get the chance

The key question: Can Krylov establish his kicking game without getting countered? History says no. Against Reyes and Guskov, patient counter-strikers waited for him to overcommit and made him pay.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Bukauskas should look to establish pressure and test Krylov's chin early. Krylov has shown he can be hurt and finished quickly—both recent losses came in round one. If Bukauskas can cut the cage and land clean counters when Krylov shifts forward, this could end fast.

Mid-Fight: If Krylov survives the opening exchanges, his cardio concerns become relevant. Against Oezdemir, the fight "got a lot slower and more boring" after an explosive start. Bukauskas's recent performances show he can maintain output.

Championship Rounds: Not applicable for a three-round fight, but Krylov's cardio has historically been suspect. Against Teixeira, he faded after expending energy in round one.

Analysis and Key Points

• Krylov's recent KO losses are alarming. Both Reyes and Guskov timed his forward movement with counters. Bukauskas has shown he can time opponents similarly.

• Bukauskas's four-fight win streak includes quality wins. Beating Paul Craig—a dangerous submission specialist—by staying disciplined on top shows tactical maturity.

• The momentum is entirely with Bukauskas. Krylov is 2-4 in his last six; Bukauskas is 4-0 since returning from injury.

• Krylov's submission vulnerabilities matter. If this goes to the ground and Krylov attempts his usual guillotine hunting, Bukauskas's improved grappling could capitalize.

• Age and trajectory favor Bukauskas. At 31 with recent momentum versus 33-year-old Krylov on a losing skid, the arc of both careers points in one direction.

Understanding the Prediction

The SHAP data reveals why the model favors Bukauskas:

• Significant Striking Impact Differential (+4) heavily influenced the prediction—Bukauskas's recent striking efficiency has improved while Krylov's has declined
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight (+3) suggests Krylov's wrestling-heavy approach may not be enough
• Recent Win Percentage (-3) reflects Krylov's 33% recent win rate versus Bukauskas's perfect 100%
• Striking Defense Percentage (-2) highlights Krylov's defensive issues that led to his recent KO losses
• Win Streak Difference (-1) captures Bukauskas's four-fight streak versus Krylov's two-fight skid
• Reach (+1) gives Bukauskas a slight edge at 76" versus Krylov's 77"—minimal but noted

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has struggled with Krylov predictions recently: - Predicted Krylov to beat Guskov (0.52)—WRONG (KO/TKO Round 1) - Predicted Krylov to beat Reyes (0.57)—WRONG (KO/TKO Round 1) - Predicted Krylov to beat Craig (0.61)—WRONG (Submission Round 1)

The model has been 2-3 on Krylov overall, correctly picking his wins over Oezdemir and Gustafsson but missing his recent collapse.

For Bukauskas, the model has been strong recently: - Predicted Bukauskas to beat Craig (0.61)—CORRECT - Predicted Bukauskas to beat Cutelaba (0.55)—CORRECT - Predicted Bukauskas to beat Cerqueira (0.72)—CORRECT

The model is 3-0 on Bukauskas's recent fights, capturing his resurgence accurately.

Conclusion

Krylov's recent performances paint a picture of a fighter whose timing and chin have deteriorated. He's been knocked out twice in a row by counter-strikers who waited for him to overcommit—exactly what Bukauskas can do. Meanwhile, Bukauskas has rebuilt his career with disciplined performances against quality opposition.

The model's confidence in Bukauskas aligns with the eye test: a fighter ascending versus one in decline. WolfTicketsAI has Bukauskas taking this one.

Analysis: Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Charles Johnson to Win

Score: 15
Odds:
Alex Perez: +175
Charles Johnson: -205

Alex Perez's Breakdown

Alex Perez is a former UFC flyweight title challenger with deep experience at the highest level. His game revolves around pressure flurries, calf kicks, and opportunistic wrestling. Against Matheus Nicolau at UFC 298, Perez showed a refined feint-heavy approach—pumping non-threatening jabs while taking lateral steps to force resets, then attacking during transitions. That performance earned him a second-round knockout and demonstrated his evolved striking toolkit.

Signature Techniques: - Pressure Flurries with Lateral Movement: Against Nicolau, Perez used constant hand feints and small lateral steps to disrupt the counter-fighter's timing. He'd step right, force Nicolau to turn, then run in with combinations. This approach worked beautifully until he caught Nicolau against the fence with a right hand to the body followed by a right hook to the chin. - Calf Kicks: His TKO of Jussier Formiga at UFC 250 came via leg kicks—just the 11th such finish in UFC history. Perez landed 51% of his significant strikes to the legs, systematically compromising Formiga's mobility before the finish. - Reactive Takedowns: Perez's All-American wrestling background allows him to mix shots off his striking. Against Mokaev, he showed solid defensive wrestling and threatened ninja chokes from front headlock positions.

Technical Evolution: Perez has developed a more diverse feinting package since his title shot loss to Figueiredo. His striking looked sharper against Nicolau with better combination flow and cage-cutting. However, his most recent fight against Asu Almabayev ended in a third-round guillotine submission after Perez shot while hurt—a recurring pattern.

Alex Perez's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Reactive Takedowns When Hurt: This is the critical flaw. Against Almabayev, Perez got rocked by a spinning wheel kick and immediately shot for a takedown rather than backing away. Almabayev snapped on a standing guillotine and finished him at 0:22 of round three. This mirrors his title fight loss to Figueiredo, where he rolled into a guillotine after scrambling from a leg lock attempt. When Perez gets hurt, his instinct is to shoot—and elite submission artists punish this.

2. Guillotine/Choke Susceptibility: Three of Perez's last five losses came via choke submissions (Figueiredo, Pantoja, Almabayev). His head positioning during scrambles consistently exposes his neck. Against Pantoja, he got caught in a rear-naked choke/neck crank after engaging in a striking exchange where Pantoja ducked to his back.

3. Forward Posture Overcommitment: Against Tatsuro Taira, Perez leaned excessively forward when pressing, placing his head ahead of his hips. Taira exploited this with uppercuts and double collar tie entries, eventually securing back control that led to a knee injury finish.

Charles Johnson's Breakdown

Charles Johnson is a long, athletic flyweight who has found his groove after a rocky start to his UFC career. Standing 5'9" with a 70" reach, he's unusually tall for the division and uses that length to work from the outside with kicks and stance-switching combinations.

Signature Techniques: - Switch Cross to Southpaw: Johnson throws a left hand while stepping through with his right foot, transitioning into southpaw mid-combination. Against Jake Hadley, he used this technique to circumvent Hadley's jab parry defense, eventually landing a knockdown when his right straight sailed underneath Hadley's elbow parry. - Counter Uppercuts with Shifting: Against Azat Maksum, Johnson showed sophisticated striking—slipping punches, shifting through with a left straight into southpaw, then following with a right uppercut. This shifting mid-counter approach created angles that troubled the dangerous prospect. - Devastating Right Uppercut: His knockout of Joshua Van at UFC Denver came via an "impossibly long right uppercut" that detonated on Van's chin after an overhand right rocked him. Johnson's power is real—he's dropped his last several opponents.

Technical Evolution: Johnson has transformed from a fighter who struggled against pressure (losses to Durden, Osbourne, Temirov) into someone who can impose his will. His third-round rally against Zhumagulov showed adaptability—he completely shifted from counter-fighting to aggressive cage-cutting when down on the scorecards. His knockout of Lone'er Kavanagh demonstrated his durability and ability to fire back immediately when hurt.

Charles Johnson's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Slow Starts/First Round Passivity: Johnson's first rounds are consistently his worst. Against Temirov, he lost a decision largely because he couldn't get started early. Against Zhumagulov, he lost the first two rounds before rallying in the third. His corner has to constantly push him to increase volume early.

2. Susceptibility to Pressure Fighters: When opponents walk him down with volume, Johnson struggles to establish his range. Zhumagulov's pressure gave him significant trouble in rounds one and two. Durden's wrestling completely neutralized him for three rounds. Opponents who don't let him work at distance can take early rounds.

3. Takedown Defense Gaps: Despite exceptional scrambling ability (he popped back up repeatedly against Mokaev), Johnson gets taken down frequently. His 49% takedown defense ratio suggests he can be put on his back—though his ability to return to his feet mitigates this.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents an interesting clash of tendencies. Perez wants to pressure forward with flurries and mix in wrestling, while Johnson prefers to work from range with his length advantage and stance-switching.

Perez's Path to Victory: - His calf kicks could compromise Johnson's mobility and stance-switching - If he can back Johnson to the fence, his pressure flurries become dangerous - His wrestling threat might force Johnson to respect the takedown, opening up striking entries

Johnson's Path to Victory: - His five-inch reach advantage (70" vs 65") allows him to work from the outside - If Perez shoots while hurt or overcommits forward, Johnson's uppercuts could be devastating - Johnson's scrambling ability should negate Perez's wrestling if fights go to the ground

The critical question: Can Perez's pressure overwhelm Johnson early, or will Johnson's length and counter-punching catch Perez leaning forward? Given Perez's pattern of getting submitted when hurt and Johnson's knockout power, the longer this fight goes, the more dangerous it becomes for Perez.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Perez typically starts fast with pressure and calf kicks. Johnson's slow starts are well-documented—his first rounds are "always terrible." Expect Perez to have early success walking Johnson down and landing leg kicks. However, Johnson's durability means he can weather storms.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: This is where Johnson finds his rhythm. Against Hadley, he was "paralyzed" in round one by jab defense but adapted with stance-switching to find openings. Against Maksum, he corrected defensive errors after a rough first round to dominate later. If Perez can't hurt Johnson early, the tide may turn.

Championship Rounds (if applicable): This is a three-round fight, but Johnson's cardio is a strength from his LFA championship experience. Perez has shown cardio issues in extended fights and has been finished in round three multiple times (Almabayev, Taira). If this reaches the third round competitive, Johnson's late-round surge becomes a factor.

Analysis and Key Points

• Perez's submission vulnerability is alarming. Three of his last five losses came via choke. Johnson isn't primarily a grappler, but if Perez shoots while hurt, he's putting himself in danger.
• Johnson's reach advantage is significant. Five inches at flyweight is massive. Perez will need to close distance effectively, but his forward lean creates openings for uppercuts.
• Perez was recently submitted. The Almabayev loss came just months ago via guillotine after shooting while hurt—the same pattern from his Figueiredo loss. This is a red flag.
• Johnson's knockout power is real. The Van knockout showed he can end fights with single shots. Perez's forward pressure could walk him into something.
• Perez has lost 4 of his last 5 fights. All losses came against top competition, but the downward trend is concerning. His 33% recent win percentage reflects this decline.

Understanding the Prediction

The model favors Johnson despite Perez being the more experienced fighter. Key factors:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 9.0 points. Johnson is the betting favorite (-205), and the model adjusts for this.
• Reach decreased the score by 3.0 points. Johnson's 70" reach versus Perez's 65" represents a significant advantage the model weighs.
• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 2.0 points. Perez's 33% recent win rate versus Johnson's 67% reflects their diverging trajectories.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight increased the score by 2.0 points. Johnson's willingness to shoot (2.74 per fight) suggests he can threaten wrestling if needed.
• Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 1.0 point. Johnson's +23.67 differential versus Perez's +13.62 shows he's landing with more effect.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with both fighters:

Alex Perez: The model correctly predicted his losses to Almabayev (0.68 confidence), Taira (0.70), Mokaev (0.71), and Pantoja (0.73). It incorrectly picked Nicolau over Perez (0.61 confidence) when Perez scored the knockout upset. The model has been right about Perez losing to elite competition but missed his upset win.

Charles Johnson: The model has struggled with Johnson. It correctly predicted his wins over Sumudaerji (0.70), Flick (0.81), and Zhumagulov (0.58), and his losses to Durden (0.72) and Osbourne (0.75). However, it incorrectly picked against Johnson in four fights—Van (0.65), Hadley (0.53), Maksum (0.66), and Kavanagh (0.54). Johnson has repeatedly outperformed expectations.

This is concerning—the model has underestimated Johnson multiple times. But it's also been right about Perez's decline against top competition.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI picks Charles Johnson to win. Perez's pattern of getting submitted when hurt, combined with Johnson's knockout power and reach advantage, creates a dangerous equation for the veteran. Johnson's slow starts give Perez a window early, but if this fight reaches the third round competitive, Johnson's late-round surge and Perez's submission vulnerability become decisive factors. The model's low confidence score (15) reflects how close this fight is, but Johnson's upward trajectory versus Perez's recent struggles tips the scales.

Analysis: Josh Hokit vs Denzel Freeman

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Josh Hokit to Win

Score: 11
Odds:
Josh Hokit: -215
Denzel Freeman: +185

Josh Hokit's Breakdown

Josh Hokit enters this heavyweight clash with an unblemished 7-0 record and a 100% finish rate. His UFC debut against Max Gimenis told you everything you need to know about his approach: come out fast, hit hard, and end it early.

Signature Techniques:

1. Power Right Hand: Against Gimenis, Hokit landed a clean right hand within 40 seconds that visibly staggered his opponent and sent him to the canvas. This is his money punch—he loads up and throws with bad intentions.

2. Swarming Pressure: When Gimenis returned to his feet after the initial knockdown, Hokit immediately swarmed with follow-up punches. He doesn't give hurt opponents time to recover. This killer instinct separates finishers from decision fighters.

3. Cage-Side Finishing: Hokit trapped Gimenis along the fence and unloaded power shots that put him "out on his feet" before the referee stoppage at 0:56 of Round 1.

Technical Evolution:

His DWCS performance against Guilherme Uriel showcased a different weapon—five takedowns in Round 1 before pounding out the finish in Round 2. The Jackson-Wink product has options. He can wrestle you down or knock you out. Against Gimenis, he chose violence on the feet.

His stats back up the eye test: 9.64 significant strikes landed per minute with 32.14 knockdowns per fight (albeit from one UFC fight). The man hits hard.

Josh Hokit's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Untested Defensive Skills: The Gimenis fight lasted 56 seconds. You haven't seen Hokit absorb adversity at UFC level. His striking defense percentage sits at 57.14%, which is serviceable but not elite. If someone can survive his early onslaught, questions remain about his ability to handle pressure coming back at him.

2. Potential Over-Aggression: Hokit's forward pressure is relentless, but it leaves him open to counter-strikers. He charges forward with his chin available. A fighter with timing and patience could catch him coming in.

3. Cardio Unknown: Every professional fight has ended early. If someone can weather the storm and drag him into deep waters, you're looking at uncharted territory.

Denzel Freeman's Breakdown

Freeman enters at 7-1 with his lone UFC appearance being a unanimous decision over Marek Bujło at UFC Qatar. That fight revealed a cautious, range-fighting approach that contrasted sharply with his aggressive LFA title win over Hugo Cunha.

Signature Techniques:

1. Rear-Leg Head Kick: Freeman's best weapon. Against Bujło, he timed a low kick with a clean straight punch and followed by going high with his signature head kick. He creates space with a hand swipe before exploding through the technique.

2. Counter Striking: Freeman showed timing ability against Bujło, reading his opponent's entries and landing clean counters. His Greco-Roman wrestling background gives him good balance and base for these exchanges.

3. Wrestling Defense/Scrambles: When Bujło secured a takedown in Round 3 after Freeman slipped, he quickly worked back to his feet and immediately launched a flurry. His Olympic Training Center wrestling experience serves him defensively.

Technical Evolution:

The UFC debut was a step back from his LFA championship form. Against Cunha, Freeman overwhelmed the champion with constant pressure, volume punching, and a smothering ground attack for a second-round TKO. Against Bujło, he threw single strikes with long pauses. Debut jitters or a permanent shift? That's the question.

Denzel Freeman's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Low Output/Hesitancy: Freeman threw sparingly against Bujło. Both fighters spent most of the fight trading calf kicks at range. His strikes landed per minute (3.27) pale in comparison to Hokit's output. Against an aggressive pressure fighter, this passivity could be fatal.

2. Cage Control Issues: Pre-fight scouting identified this as Freeman's biggest problem—he backs up too easily and willingly fights off the fence. Against Hokit's forward pressure, this tendency could put him in dangerous positions along the cage where Hokit finished Gimenis.

3. Unpolished Stand-Up Beyond Kicks: While his rear-leg kicking game is legitimate, Freeman's overall striking lacks polish. He couldn't put together sustained combinations against Bujło. His wide, karate-style stance creates kicking opportunities but also contributes to him giving ground.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup heavily favors Hokit's aggressive approach.

Hokit's Techniques vs Freeman's Tendencies: - Freeman's tendency to back up plays directly into Hokit's pressure-fighting style. Against Gimenis, Hokit trapped his opponent along the fence and finished him. Freeman willingly fights off the cage—that's a recipe for disaster. - Freeman's low output (3.27 strikes per minute) won't discourage Hokit's forward pressure. Hokit needs to be punished for his aggression, and Freeman hasn't shown the willingness to throw volume. - Hokit's power right hand could exploit Freeman's wide stance. That karate-style positioning creates openings for straight punches down the middle.

Freeman's Techniques vs Hokit's Tendencies: - Freeman's head kick could theoretically catch Hokit charging in. But Freeman needs to commit to throwing it, and his UFC debut showed hesitancy. - Freeman's wrestling defense could neutralize Hokit's takedown threat, but Hokit showed against Gimenis he's happy to keep it standing when his hands are working. - Freeman's 4-inch reach advantage (77" vs 73") gives him tools to work at range, but only if he uses them. Against Bujło, he didn't capitalize on his physical advantages.

The historical comparison here is any pressure fighter vs a counter-striker who won't pull the trigger. Freeman needs to make Hokit pay for his aggression, and nothing in his UFC debut suggests he will.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Hokit will come out fast. His entire game is built on early pressure and finishing hurt opponents. Expect him to close distance immediately and throw power shots. Freeman's tendency to back up means he'll likely be on the fence within the first minute. If Hokit lands clean early—like he did against Gimenis—this could be over quickly.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Freeman survives the initial onslaught, the question becomes: can Hokit maintain his pace? His cardio is untested in longer fights. However, Freeman's low output means he won't be forcing Hokit to expend energy defending. Freeman would need to dramatically increase his activity to make this a factor.

Championship Rounds (if applicable): This is a three-round fight, and frankly, it's hard to see it going that long. Hokit's finishing ability combined with Freeman's defensive tendencies suggest an early stoppage is more likely than a decision.

Analysis and Key Points

• Hokit's pressure vs Freeman's passivity: Freeman threw sparingly against Bujło and backed up consistently. Hokit finished Gimenis in 56 seconds with relentless forward pressure. This is a stylistic mismatch.

• Power differential: Hokit's 32.14 knockdowns per fight (from one UFC bout) vs Freeman's 0.00 tells the story. One guy hurts people, the other guy points fights.

• Cage control: Freeman's biggest weakness is backing up and fighting off the fence. Hokit's best weapon is trapping opponents on the cage and unloading. Connect the dots.

• Experience level: Both fighters have just one UFC fight. But Hokit's was a dominant 56-second finish while Freeman's was a cautious, low-output decision. The confidence levels entering this fight will be vastly different.

• ⚠️ Warning: Both fighters have fewer than 2 UFC fights, making predictions less certain due to limited octagon data.

Understanding the Prediction

The SHAP data reveals what's driving this prediction:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 12.0 points—the betting market heavily favors Hokit at -215, and the model weighs this significantly.
• Recent Win Percentage added 3.0 points—Hokit's perfect 100% recent win rate vs Freeman's 88% tips the scales.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential added 1.0 point—Hokit's ability to land meaningful shots while avoiding damage gives him an edge.
• TrueSkill added 1.0 point—the model's skill rating favors Hokit despite similar experience levels.
• Striking Impact Differential and Recent Striking Impact Differential each added 1.0 point—Hokit's damage output outpaces what he absorbs.
• Significant Striking Output Differential added 1.0 point—Hokit simply throws more meaningful leather.

The only features working against Hokit were Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential (-1.0) and Striking Defense Percentage (-1.0), but these minor deductions don't offset his advantages.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has no prediction history for either Josh Hokit or Denzel Freeman. Both fighters have only one UFC bout, so the model is working with limited data. This adds uncertainty to the prediction, but the stylistic indicators and betting market alignment provide reasonable confidence.

Conclusion

Josh Hokit's aggressive pressure-fighting style matches up perfectly against Denzel Freeman's passive, backing-up tendencies. Freeman showed in his UFC debut that he's unwilling to throw volume or engage at close range. Hokit showed he'll close distance immediately and finish hurt opponents. When a pressure fighter meets a counter-striker who won't counter, the pressure fighter wins. WolfTicketsAI has Hokit taking this one, likely inside the distance.