Results: UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento

Fight Info:
Location: St. Louis, Missouri, United States
Elevation: 142.00m
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…
WTAI Model
Main Under Full
66.67% 50.0% 58.33%
Profit Model
Main Under Full
66.67% 50.0% 58.33%
Plain Model
Main Under Full
50.0% 66.67% 58.33%
Selected Bets for Event:
ROI: -100.00%
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Derrick Lewis, Sean Woodson, Esteban Ribovics, JJ Aldrich
  • Odds: 649
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Carlos Ulberg, Mateusz Rebecki, Robelis Despaigne
  • Odds: 203
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Trey Waters, Jake Hadley
  • Odds: 143

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorrect predictions are shown in red.
Main Card Predictions
Undercard Card Predictions
Fight Analysis
SHAP Chart

Analysis: Derrick Lewis vs Rodrigo Nascimento

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Derrick Lewis to Win

Score: 3 Odds: Derrick Lewis: -155 Rodrigo Nascimento: 130

Derrick Lewis's Breakdown

Derrick Lewis is a powerhouse heavyweight known for his devastating knockout power. He holds the record for the most knockouts in UFC heavyweight history. Lewis's game is all about landing that one big shot to put his opponents away.

In his last fight against Jailton Almeida, Lewis struggled with Almeida's grappling and lost a unanimous decision. However, prior to that, he had an impressive KO win over Marcos Rogerio de Lima, showcasing his scary one-punch power.

Lewis does have some holes in his game, particularly when it comes to grappling defense and cardio. He has been submitted before when fighters have managed to take him down and control him on the mat. His striking defense can also be lacking at times. Of course, Lewis famously said "I don't believe in jiu-jitsu" and thinks he can always just stand up if he gets taken down. We'll see if that philosophy holds up against a grappler like Nascimento.

But when Lewis connects, few can take his power. He has ferocious ground and pound if he ends up on top, and vicious hooks and uppercuts when striking on the feet. If this fight stays standing, Lewis will have a big advantage with his ability to end the fight at any moment.

Rodrigo Nascimento's Breakdown

Rodrigo Nascimento is a Brazilian heavyweight prospect with a well-rounded skillset. He is currently on a three-fight win streak, with decision victories over Don'Tale Mayes, Ilir Latifi, and Tanner Boser.

Nascimento has a solid submission game, with submissions making up about half of his UFC wins so far. In his UFC debut, he submitted Don'Tale Mayes with a rear-naked choke in the second round. He'll be looking to prove to Lewis that jiu-jitsu is in fact very real in this fight.

On the feet, Nascimento has good muay thai and output. He lands nearly 6 significant strikes per minute, mixing together kicks and punches. He absorbed some damage in his last fight against Mayes but showed a good chin.

The key for Nascimento will be using his grappling to neutralize Lewis's power. If he can take Lewis down and control him or threaten with submissions, he could wear Lewis down and take over as the fight goes on. But he has to be very careful not to get caught on the feet.

Analysis and Key Points

  • This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. Lewis has the clear advantage on the feet with his KO power, while Nascimento will look to take it to the mat and show Lewis that jiu-jitsu is real.
  • Nascimento's path to victory is through his wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He needs to close the distance carefully, secure a takedown, and work for control and submissions. He cannot afford to strike with Lewis for long.
  • Lewis needs to keep this fight standing and land his bombs. His takedown defense will be tested, but if he can stuff Nascimento's attempts and force a boxing match, the fight is his to lose. If he does get taken down, we'll see if he can just stand up like he thinks he can.
  • Cardio could play a big factor. If Nascimento can drag Lewis into deep waters and make him work, Lewis is known to slow down. Nascimento needs to survive the early onslaught though.

Understanding the Prediction

  • The odds significantly favor Lewis which increased the model prediction score. Lewis being a -155 favorite shows the oddsmakers are backing his KO power to get it done.
  • Lewis's higher significant striking metrics increased the prediction score. He lands more significant strikes per minute (2.43 vs 4.32) and has better striking accuracy (50% vs 48%), showing his striking advantage.
  • Nascimento's recent takedown attempts decreased the score, indicating a possible path to victory for him. He attempts 5.13 takedowns per fight recently, which is his clearest way to win. We'll see if Lewis's skepticism of jiu-jitsu comes back to haunt him.

Past Model Performance

For Derrick Lewis, the model has been reasonably accurate but had two notable misses in the last 5 predictions: - It incorrectly predicted him to lose to Marcos Rogerio de Lima, but Lewis won by KO. - It incorrectly predicted him to beat Tai Tuivasa, but Lewis was KO'd.

For Rodrigo Nascimento, the model has been more accurate, correctly predicting his last two wins. The one miss was predicting Tanner Boser to beat him, but Nascimento won a split decision.

Overall the model has performed decently for both fighters but has shown it can miss on Lewis in particular. Something to keep in mind when weighing this prediction.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts Derrick Lewis to win a tough matchup against Rodrigo Nascimento, giving him a score of 3. The odds favor Lewis and his striking power gives him a clear path to victory if he can keep it standing. However, Nascimento's grappling is a real threat that could turn the tables if he gets Lewis down, even if Lewis thinks he can just stand up. Lewis's inconsistent recent results and the danger of Nascimento's submissions make this a risky bet despite the model's solid score in Lewis's favor. Proceed with some caution, and let's see if Lewis's views on jiu-jitsu end up being validated or disproven in this fight.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Joaquin Buckley vs Nursulton Ruziboev

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Joaquin Buckley to Win

Score: 1.0 Odds: Joaquin Buckley: -145 Nursulton Ruziboev: 120

Joaquin Buckley's Breakdown

Joaquin Buckley is a dangerous striker with serious knockout power, as evidenced by his highlight reel KO of Impa Kasanganay with a spinning back kick. He's coming off an impressive KO win over Vicente Luque, showing he can hang with top welterweights. Buckley mixes his strikes well to the head and body. When he gets in close, he has fight-ending power in his hands.

However, Buckley's striking defense is a weakness, absorbing nearly 2 significant strikes per minute to the head. He was knocked out cold by Alessio Di Chirico and Chris Curtis, showing he can be caught. His takedown defense is also mediocre at 54%, a potential vulnerability against strong wrestlers.

Nursulton Ruziboev's Breakdown

Nursulton Ruziboev is a relative UFC newcomer with only 2 fights, but has looked impressive so far. He has scary one-punch KO power, flatling Sedriques Dumas in the 1st round in his last fight. Ruziboev has excellent takedown accuracy at 100% in the UFC so far.

The main concern with Ruziboev is the small sample size of UFC data to analyze. With only 2 fights, it's hard to know how he'll fare against proven UFC veterans. His striking absorption is very low, but may not be sustainable as he faces better competition.

Analysis and Key Points

  • This shapes up as a battle of explosive strikers. Both men have fight-ending power in their hands.
  • Buckley is far more tested against elite UFC competition, while Ruziboev is largely unproven.
  • Buckley's striking defense is a concern, especially against a KO artist like Ruziboev. If he gets tagged clean, he could go out.
  • Ruziboev's takedowns could be a difference maker. If he can ground Buckley, it would negate a lot of his opponent's striking offense.
  • With both fighters possessing KO power, don't blink in this one. It could end suddenly and violently.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The betting odds favoring Buckley moved the model strongly towards him. Bettors see Buckley as a clear favorite.
  • Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Buckley's 6.15 differential vs Ruziboev's 3.67 implies Buckley has been more impactful with his strikes lately, increasing prediction confidence in him.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Buckley has won 100% of his last 5 fights compared to 67% for Ruziboev. The model sees Buckley as having more momentum.
  • Striking Defense Percentage: Buckley only defends 55% of strikes compared to 81% for Ruziboev. This concerning defensive metric lowered the model's confidence in Buckley.

Past Model Performance

WolfTickets has a mixed record predicting Buckley's fights, going 3-4. This includes incorrectly picking Buckley to beat Chris Curtis and Andre Fialho. There's decent confidence in Buckley here, but the model's past struggles picking his fights adds uncertainty.

The model is 1-0 picking Ruziboev fights, but the small sample size means this shouldn't be weighed too heavily. More data is needed to gauge how well it can project his results.

Conclusion

Buckley and Ruziboev promise explosive action for as long as it lasts. Buckley is the more proven commodity and a deserving favorite, but his shaky striking defense is a worrying liability against a dangerous puncher like Ruziboev.

The smart pick is Buckley, largely due to his edge in high-level experience. But Ruziboev's UFC inexperience makes him a live dog. His KO power and takedown skills give him paths to victory.

In the end, the betting value lies with Ruziboev at +120. Buckley should be favored, but not by a huge margin given the stylistic concerns. For a small play, take a stab at Ruziboev to land a fight-changing bomb and score the upset.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Alonzo Menifield vs Carlos Ulberg

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Carlos Ulberg to Win

Score: 18 Odds: Alonzo Menifield: 170 Carlos Ulberg: -210

Alonzo Menifield's Breakdown

Alonzo Menifield is a powerful striker with 8 KO/TKO wins in the UFC. He throws heavy shots, notably knocking out Misha Cirkunov and Vinicius Moreira in the first round. Menifield has solid takedown defense, stuffing 70% of attempts. However, his striking defense is a liability, absorbing 3.35 significant strikes per minute. This cost him in losses to Ovince Saint Preux (KO) and Devin Clark (decision). Menifield's aggression can be used against him by skilled counter strikers.

Carlos Ulberg's Breakdown

Carlos Ulberg is a technical kickboxer with precise and varied striking. He mixes punches and kicks smoothly, landing 7.40 significant strikes per minute at 60% accuracy. Ulberg's defense is also sound, evading 51% of opponents' significant strike attempts. He's finished his last 3 fights by KO/TKO, including a head kick KO of Tafon Nchukwi. Ulberg's only loss was an early career KO to the dangerous Kennedy Nzechukwu. Since then, his fight IQ and shot selection have clearly improved.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Striking Matchup: Ulberg has a sizeable advantage in striking volume, accuracy, and defense. Expect him to pick Menifield apart at range.
  • Power vs Precision: Menifield's path to victory is landing a big shot early. But Ulberg is far more technically sound and should be able to avoid the kill shot.
  • Grappling: Neither fighter attempts many takedowns. This should remain a kickboxing match unless someone gets hurt.
  • Fight IQ: Ulberg is the more patient and methodical fighter. Menifield needs to be mindful of his cardio if he comes out aggressively.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds strongly favor Ulberg, decreasing the model score for Menifield. The betting market sees Ulberg as a clear favorite.
  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Ulberg lands 28.67 more impactful significant strikes per bout, a massive edge decreasing Menifield's chances.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Menifield has won his last 3 fights, a factor increasing his model score. But all of Ulberg's UFC wins are also in his last 5 fights.
  • TrueSkill: The model's proprietary TrueSkill metric slightly favors Ulberg, increasing his chances of victory.

Past Model Performance

  • The WolfTickets model has correctly predicted the winner in 5 of Ulberg's 6 UFC fights (83%).
  • It has a shakier record on Menifield, going 2 for 4 (50%). The model did correctly pick him to beat Crute and Cirkunov in his last 2 wins.
  • Given Ulberg's historical results, there is good reason to trust the model's projection in this matchup.

Conclusion

Carlos Ulberg is a stylistic nightmare for Alonzo Menifield. The kickboxer's diverse and high-volume striking should overwhelm Menifield's beatable defense. Unless Menifield can land a haymaker early, expect Ulberg to take over as the fight progresses and earn a late finish or clear decision. The model, the odds, and the underlying data all point to a convincing Ulberg victory.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Diego Ferreira vs Mateusz Rebecki

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Mateusz Rebecki to Win

Score: 15 Odds: Diego Ferreira: 225 Mateusz Rebecki: -285

Diego Ferreira's Breakdown

Diego Ferreira is a seasoned UFC veteran with an 18-5 record, but he's coming off a brutal KO loss to Michael Johnson in his last fight. That loss snapped a two-fight win streak for Ferreira. His striking defense has been a liability, absorbing 2.42 head strikes per minute. Ferreira does have solid grappling skills though, averaging 0.71 submissions and takedowns per fight in his UFC career.

However, Ferreira's recent performances have been inconsistent. He's just 2-3 in his last 5 fights, with all 3 losses coming by KO/TKO. At 38 years old, there are questions about how much Ferreira has left in the tank. His recent striking defense percentage of just 51.98% is a major red flag against a dangerous striker like Rebecki.

Mateusz Rebecki's Breakdown

Mateusz Rebecki is a rising prospect with an impressive 18-1 record. He's a perfect 3-0 so far in the UFC with wins over Roosevelt Roberts, Loik Radzhabov, and Nick Fiore. Rebecki has shown devastating finishing ability, with 1.17 knockdowns and submissions per fight in the UFC.

Rebecki is an extremely well-rounded fighter. He lands a blistering 5.95 significant strikes per minute at 54.26% accuracy. But he's also a threat on the ground, averaging 3.50 takedowns per fight at an incredible 85.71% accuracy. Rebecki's striking defense has held up well too, as he absorbs just 1.63 head strikes per minute.

The 30-year-old Rebecki appears to be hitting his prime. His recent numbers are even better than his UFC averages, including 6.68 significant strikes and 3.36 takedowns landed per minute. Rebecki has the tools to finish this fight anywhere.

Understanding the Prediction

Here are some key factors from the SHAP data that explain WolfTicketsAI's prediction:

  • Odds: The odds favoring Rebecki decreased the model's score by 11 points, showing heavy confidence in him to win.

  • Reach: Rebecki's 66" reach compared to Ferreira's 74" increased the model score by 4 points, perhaps negating some of Ferreira's striking advantage.

  • Recent Win Percentage: Rebecki's 100% win rate in his last 3 fights compared to Ferreira's 33% decreased the score by 2 points in Rebecki's favor.

  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Ferreira's 11.14 differential is much lower than Rebecki's 32.67, decreasing the score by 1 point.

  • Striking Defense Percentage: Ferreira's weak 52.79% striking defense compared to Rebecki's solid 56.98% decreased the score by 1 point.

Past Model Performance

The model has limited data on both fighters, but has been incorrect in its only past prediction for each. It predicted Ferreira to beat Michael Johnson and Radzhabov to beat Rebecki, but both picks were wrong.

With such a small sample size, it's hard to gauge the model's true accuracy on these fighters. But given Rebecki's dominant UFC performances so far, the model's strong pick for him seems justified.

Conclusion

Mateusz Rebecki looks poised for a breakout performance against the veteran Diego Ferreira. At age 30, Rebecki is 8 years younger and in the prime of his career. His elite striking and grappling numbers through 3 UFC fights have been incredibly impressive.

In contrast, the 38-year-old Ferreira is coming off a brutal KO loss and has struggled to a 2-3 record in his last 5 fights. His striking defense is a major concern against a precise, high-volume striker in Rebecki.

The model predicts Rebecki with a strong score of 15, and it's easy to see why based on the tale of the tape. While Ferreira certainly has a puncher's chance with his own solid striking skills, Rebecki has more paths to victory and looks like the clear pick to get his hand raised.

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Analysis: Alex Caceres vs Sean Woodson

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Sean Woodson to Win

Score: 16 Odds: Alex Caceres: 160 Sean Woodson: -195

Alex Caceres's Breakdown

Alex Caceres is a crafty veteran of the UFC's featherweight division with a well-rounded game. He's coming off a unanimous decision loss to Giga Chikadze, but prior to that had won two straight including an impressive first round KO over Julian Erosa.

Caceres has slick striking and isn't afraid to throw unorthodox techniques like spinning kicks and elbows. He mixes things up well to the head and body. On the ground, he's a submission threat with tricky guard work. His takedown defense has been solid throughout his career.

However, Caceres can be inconsistent at times. He's prone to mental lapses and letting opponents dictate the pace. His striking defense also has holes, as evidenced by the 1.65 significant strikes absorbed per minute over his UFC career.

Sean Woodson's Breakdown

Sean Woodson is a rangy and technical striker who knows how to use every inch of his 6'2" frame at featherweight. He's 6-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming by submission to Julian Erosa.

Woodson works behind a sharp jab and has excellent footwork to maintain distance. He peppers opponents with straight punches and kicks from the outside. Against Charles Jourdain, he used his length to great effect, picking Jourdain apart with jabs and front kicks.

Defensively, Woodson is hard to hit cleanly due to his movement and strike avoidance. Opponents have struggled to take him down as well, only landing takedowns on 15% of their attempts against Woodson in the UFC.

The one question mark is his submission defense, as we saw in the Erosa fight. But Woodson has continued to round out his game since then.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Woodson's length and striking could be a problem for Caceres. Caceres likes to dart in and out with his strikes, but Woodson's precise jab and front kick may stifle that approach.

  • Caceres needs to make this an ugly fight. Clinch work, takedown attempts, anything to disrupt Woodson's rhythm on the feet. He can't let the taller man get comfortable at range.

  • Woodson must avoid grappling exchanges. Caceres is crafty on the mat and will hunt for submissions if given the chance. Woodson has to use his footwork to circle away from takedown attempts.

  • Caceres' inconsistency is concerning. While talented, he has faded in fights before when put under pressure. Woodson is the type of calculated, high-volume striker that could drown Caceres if he's not on his A-game.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The betting odds strongly favor Woodson at -195 compared to Caceres at +160. This suggests the oddsmakers and betting public see Woodson as a clear favorite, decreasing the model's score for Caceres.

  • Recent Win Percentage: Woodson is a perfect 3-0 in his last 3 fights while Caceres is 2-1. Woodson's pristine recent record lowers the score for Caceres in comparison.

  • Reach: At 6'2", Woodson will have a sizeable 5-inch reach advantage over Caceres. This is a key factor in the standup battle and decreases the prediction score for the shorter fighter Caceres.

  • Recent Striking Impact Differential: Woodson lands 21.90 more significant strikes than he absorbs per minute in his recent fights, compared to 16.26 for Caceres. This higher differential for Woodson increases his chances in the model.

Past Model Performance

In Caceres' last 4 fights, the model correctly predicted his 2 losses to Giga Chikadze and Sodiq Yusuff with scores of 0.72 and 0.76 respectively. It also predicted his win over Daniel Pineda with a score of 0.68.

However, the model incorrectly picked Julian Erosa to beat Caceres in December 2022, giving Erosa a score of 0.33. Caceres went on to win by 1st round KO in an upset.

For Woodson, the model's only previous prediction was correct, picking him to beat Charles Jourdain by a narrow score of 0.27. Woodson won a split decision.

Given the relatively small sample size of predictions, especially for Woodson, there is some inherent uncertainty. But the model has a solid track record overall with these two fighters.

Conclusion

Sean Woodson's technical striking and rangy frame make him a tough matchup for Alex Caceres. While Caceres is skilled everywhere, his tendency to have lapses in fights is concerning against a consistent, high-output kickboxer like Woodson.

Unless Caceres can regularly get this fight to the mat where he has a grappling advantage, Woodson's pristine boxing and distance control should be enough to earn him a clear decision victory. WolfTicketsAI's quantitative model, based on factors like recent performance and physical attributes, sees Woodson as a justified betting favorite.

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Analysis: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Robelis Despaigne

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Robelis Despaigne to Win

Score: 11 Odds: Waldo Cortes-Acosta: 140 Robelis Despaigne: -170

Waldo Cortes-Acosta's Breakdown

Waldo Cortes-Acosta is a well-rounded heavyweight with a record of 11 wins and 1 loss in his MMA career, including a 4-1 record in the UFC. His lone UFC loss came by unanimous decision to Marcos Rogerio de Lima, a veteran of the division.

Cortes-Acosta has shown solid striking skills, landing 5.81 significant strikes per minute at a 47.7% accuracy rate. He mixes punches to the head and body well. In his most recent fight, a unanimous decision win over former champion Andrei Arlovski, he showcased good footwork and a stiff jab.

Wrestling has not been a major factor for Cortes-Acosta in the UFC, as he averages just 0.24 takedown attempts per fight. His takedown defense has held up decently though at 66.7%.

Robelis Despaigne's Breakdown

Robelis Despaigne is an undefeated prospect with a perfect 5-0 record, but only one UFC fight under his belt so far. In his UFC debut, he scored a highlight reel knockout over Josh Parisian, needing just 80 seconds to get the finish.

The stats from that singular UFC fight are impressive - 23.33 significant strikes landed per minute at a 77.8% accuracy clip. He showed lightning quick hands in closing the show with a flurry of punches. Of course, the sample size is very limited.

Like his opponent, Despaigne did not attempt any takedowns in his debut. He was taken down once but immediately bounced back to his feet. It remains to be seen what his full wrestling skills look like against UFC caliber opposition.

Analysis and Key Points

  • This projects as a striking battle between two powerful heavyweight prospects. Neither man has shown much of a wrestling game in the UFC, preferring to keep fights standing.
  • Despaigne has a 6-inch reach advantage at 84" compared to 78" for Cortes-Acosta. That could be a major factor in a kickboxing match.
  • Despaigne was extremely impressive in his debut, but it's still just one UFC fight. Cortes-Acosta has more proven skills against quality opponents over a larger sample size.
  • Cortes-Acosta's only UFC loss came to a crafty veteran in de Lima. This is a different style matchup against a fellow up-and-comer in Despaigne.

Understanding the Prediction

Here are some key factors that influenced the WolfTicketsAI model to predict a Despaigne victory:

  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Despaigne holds a massive edge here, having landed 5.0 more impactful significant strikes per minute than he absorbed in his debut. Cortes-Acosta's differential is 22.6, still very good but well behind Despaigne's mark.

  • Striking Accuracy: Despaigne landed a hyper-accurate 77.8% of his significant strikes in his debut, compared to 47.7% for Cortes-Acosta. If he can maintain that precision, it bodes well for his chances.

  • Odds: The betting market favors Despaigne as a -170 favorite, indicating the public also sees him as the more likely winner. The model takes this into account.

On the flip side, a few factors favored Cortes-Acosta but were outweighed by those supporting Despaigne:

  • Recent Win Percentage: Cortes-Acosta has won 4 of his last 6 fights, while Despaigne is untested over a long UFC run. His 67% win percentage is solid but not spectacular.

  • Reach: Despaigne will have a sizable 6-inch reach advantage, which could be crucial in a fight contested on the feet.

Past Model Performance

The WolfTickets model has a strong track record in predicting Waldo Cortes-Acosta's fights, going 3-1 in his 4 UFC outings. The model has successfully predicted his last two wins.

This will be the first time WolfTickets has predicted a Robelis Despaigne fight, as his debut came on short notice without a prediction. The lack of past predictions adds some uncertainty to the pick.

Conclusion

In a matchup of heavyweight prospects, WolfTicketsAI projects Robelis Despaigne to beat Waldo Cortes-Acosta, in large part due to his striking prowess. Despaigne was terrifically impressive in his UFC debut, and if he can maintain that form, he has a great chance of staying undefeated.

However, Cortes-Acosta is battle-tested in the UFC and has more ways to win. An upset would not be shocking, but the most likely outcome appears to be Despaigne winning a striking battle with his longer reach and pinpoint accuracy. It should be an exciting clash of heavyweight prospects looking to break into the top 15 rankings.

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Analysis: Chase Hooper vs Viacheslav Borshchev

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Viacheslav Borshchev to Win

Score: 2 Odds: Chase Hooper: +144 Viacheslav Borshchev: -186

Chase Hooper's Breakdown

Chase Hooper has showcased a strong grappling game in his UFC career so far. In his most recent fight against Jordan Leavitt, Hooper secured a submission victory, displaying his ability to end fights on the ground. He's also shown versatility in his wins, with a knockout victory over Felipe Colares and a unanimous decision win against Nick Fiore.

However, Hooper has struggled when facing opponents who can stuff his takedown attempts and force him to strike. In his losses to Alex Caceres and Steven Peterson, Hooper was outstruck and unable to implement his grappling effectively. Hooper's striking defense has been a liability, absorbing 3.04 significant strikes per minute in his recent fights.

Viacheslav Borshchev's Breakdown

Viacheslav Borshchev is a formidable striker with knockout power. In his UFC debut, he finished Dakota Bush with a devastating body kick in the second round. Borshchev lands 5.66 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 3.51, giving him a positive striking differential.

Borshchev's takedown defense has held up well in the UFC so far, successfully defending 77% of takedown attempts against him. His ability to keep the fight standing and utilize his striking will be key against a grappler like Hooper.

However, Borshchev is coming off a majority decision draw against Nazim Sadykhov and a unanimous decision loss to Mike Davis in his last two fights. In those bouts, he was taken down multiple times and struggled to generate his usual striking output.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Grappler vs Striker Matchup: This fight pits Hooper's grappling prowess against Borshchev's striking skills. Hooper will likely look to take the fight to the ground early, while Borshchev aims to keep it standing.
  • Hooper's Submission Threat: With 2.06 submission attempts per fight in the UFC, Hooper is always a threat to end the fight if he can secure a dominant position on the ground.
  • Borshchev's Knockout Power: Borshchev has heavy hands and feet, with 1.06 knockdowns per fight in the UFC. If he can land cleanly on Hooper, it could be lights out.
  • Hooper's Takedown Accuracy: While Hooper attempts a high volume of takedowns at 6.93 per fight, his accuracy is only 24%. He'll need to improve that against Borshchev's solid takedown defense.
  • Borshchev's Recent Struggles: Borshchev hasn't won in his last two fights and was controlled on the ground for extended periods. Hooper could exploit that weakness.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: This factor favors Hooper, who attempts 7.57 takedowns per fight in his recent bouts compared to Borshchev's 0.
  • Odds: The odds favor Borshchev as a -186 favorite, indicating the market sees him as a strong pick.
  • Reach: Hooper will enjoy a 5-inch reach advantage, which could help him in grappling exchanges and maintaining distance on the feet.
  • Striking Defense Percentage: Hooper only defends 31% of significant strikes against him, while Borshchev defends at a much higher 57% rate. This could be a major factor if Hooper can't get the fight to the ground.

Past Model Performance

  • In Hooper's last 4 fights, WolfTickets predicted correctly 2 times (50% accuracy).
  • In Borshchev's last 4 fights, WolfTickets predicted correctly 2 times (50% accuracy).
  • The model has struggled to consistently predict both fighters, adding some uncertainty to this pick.

Conclusion

The outcome of this fight will likely hinge on where the majority of the contest takes place. If Hooper can drag Borshchev into his world of grappling, he has a clear path to victory by submission. Conversely, if Borshchev can stuff the takedowns and force Hooper to trade strikes, his knockout power gives him a huge edge.

WolfTicketsAI sees Borshchev as the more likely winner, but Hooper's grappling X-factor makes him a live underdog. The model's past performance also introduces some doubt. Overall, this shapes up as a fascinating clash of styles between two promising prospects looking to make a statement.

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Analysis: Terrance McKinney vs Esteban Ribovics

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Esteban Ribovics to Win

Score: 8 Odds: Terrance McKinney: +160 Esteban Ribovics: -195

Terrance McKinney's Breakdown

Terrance McKinney is a dynamic lightweight fighter known for his explosive striking and dangerous submission game. In his UFC career, he has showcased his ability to end fights quickly, with 4 out of his 5 UFC wins coming by way of first round stoppage.

McKinney is particularly adept at landing devastating knees in the clinch, as demonstrated in his 2021 fight against Matt Frevola where he secured a 7-second KO victory. His lightning quick reflexes and timing allow him to capitalize on small openings and hurt his opponents.

On the ground, McKinney is a submission threat, with a slick rear-naked choke that he used to submit both Fares Ziam and Erick Gonzalez. However, his aggressive style can sometimes leave him vulnerable, as seen in his losses to Drew Dober and Ismael Bonfim, both by KO/TKO.

Esteban Ribovics's Breakdown

Esteban Ribovics is a well-rounded prospect with a strong grappling base. In his UFC debut against Kamuela Kirk, Ribovics showcased his wrestling prowess, landing 3 takedowns and controlling the fight on the mat to secure a unanimous decision victory.

On the feet, Ribovics has crisp boxing and excellent footwork. He maintains a high striking output, landing 7.77 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 3.10 in return. This strike differential is a testament to his strong defensive skills and ability to manage distance.

Ribovics' lone loss in the UFC came against the experienced Loik Radzhabov, who was able to outwork him over three rounds. Despite the setback, Ribovics showed his toughness and resilience, never giving up and continuing to push the pace until the final bell.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Grappling could be the deciding factor: With both fighters possessing strong grappling skills, the outcome may hinge on who can gain the upper hand in the wrestling and jiu-jitsu exchanges.
  • McKinney's explosiveness vs Ribovics' composure: McKinney's explosive style could cause problems for Ribovics early on, but if the Argentinian can weather the storm and drag McKinney into deep waters, his more measured approach may pay dividends.
  • Striking battle favors Ribovics: The stats suggest that Ribovics has the edge in the striking department, with a higher output and better defense. McKinney will need to land something big early to shift the momentum.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: Ribovics' 1.5 takedowns attempted per fight compared to McKinney's 9.10 is a significant factor in the model favoring Ribovics. This suggests that Ribovics' more selective wrestling approach could be more effective than McKinney's volume-based strategy.
  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: McKinney's 6.75 is notably lower than Ribovics' 42.5, indicating that Ribovics lands the more impactful strikes while absorbing less in return. This striking edge is a key reason behind the model's prediction.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Ribovics' 33% recent win percentage compared to McKinney's 67% would typically favor McKinney. However, the model interprets this as Ribovics having more upside and room for improvement, especially considering his overall 92.31% UFC win percentage.

Past Model Performance

The WolfTicketsAI model has had mixed success in predicting McKinney's fights, correctly calling 3 out of 5 bouts. Notably, it was incorrect in picking McKinney over Nazim Sadykhov in a fight where McKinney was submitted.

For Ribovics, the model has only one previous prediction, correctly backing him to defeat Kamuela Kirk. The limited data on Ribovics introduces some uncertainty into the model's current pick.

Conclusion

This crossroads lightweight battle pits the explosive Terrance McKinney against the methodical Esteban Ribovics. While McKinney's highlight reel finishes make him the more recognized name, the model favors Ribovics' more consistent and well-rounded skill set.

Look for Ribovics to use his technical striking to keep McKinney at bay, while mixing in timely takedowns to keep the American guessing. If McKinney can't find the finish early, Ribovics' cardio and composure should carry him to a hard-fought decision victory.

All things considered, the WolfTicketsAI model's 8-confidence score pick of Esteban Ribovics is a reasonable assessment, but the limited data on the Argentinian adds an element of intrigue to this compelling matchup.

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Analysis: Tabatha Ricci vs Tecia Torres

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Tabatha Ricci to Win

Score: 3 Odds: Tabatha Ricci: -125 Tecia Torres: 105

Tabatha Ricci's Breakdown

Tabatha Ricci has had an impressive UFC career so far, with a record of 4 wins and 2 losses. Her most recent fight was a loss against Loopy Godinez by split decision, but prior to that she had three straight wins including an impressive submission victory over Jessica Penne.

Ricci is known for her strong grappling and submission game, averaging 3.39 takedowns per fight and 0.20 submissions per fight in her UFC career. She utilizes her takedowns to control her opponents on the ground and hunt for submissions. In her win over Penne, Ricci secured an armbar submission in the second round after dominating the grappling exchanges.

On the feet, Ricci has a diverse striking arsenal, landing 4.41 significant strikes per minute with 37% accuracy. She mixes up her attacks well, landing 2.72 head strikes, 0.62 body strikes, and 1.06 leg kicks per minute. However, her striking defense is an area that could be exploited, absorbing 5.28 significant strikes per minute with only 60% defense.

Tecia Torres' Breakdown

Tecia Torres is a seasoned UFC veteran with a record of 9 wins and 6 losses. She's coming off a split decision loss to Mackenzie Dern in her last fight, but had won three straight prior to that including a TKO victory over Sam Hughes.

Torres is primarily a striker, landing 4.74 significant strikes per minute with 49% accuracy. She has good volume and a balanced attack, landing 2.64 head strikes, 1.11 body strikes, and 0.99 leg kicks per minute. Her striking defense is solid, absorbing only 3.57 significant strikes per minute with 61% defense.

While primarily a striker, Torres is no slouch in the grappling department. She defends 62% of takedown attempts and has even secured a submission win over Juliana Lima in the past. However, her offensive wrestling is limited, attempting only 4.44 takedowns per fight with 15% accuracy.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Grappling Advantage for Ricci: With 3.39 takedowns per fight compared to only 0.66 for Torres, Ricci has a clear advantage in the wrestling department. If she can get this fight to the ground, she'll be in her element and can work towards a submission.

  • Striking Edge for Torres: While Ricci is no slouch on the feet, Torres has the edge in striking volume (4.74 vs 4.41 significant strikes landed per minute) and defense (61% vs 60%). In a pure striking battle, Torres likely has the advantage.

  • Ricci's Path to Victory: Ricci's best path to victory is to utilize her wrestling and grappling. She should look to close the distance, secure takedowns, and dominate from top position while hunting for submissions. Penne fight showed how dangerous she can be on the mat.

  • Torres' Path to Victory: For Torres to emerge victorious, she needs to keep this fight standing and utilize her technical striking. If she can maintain distance, avoid the takedowns, and punish Ricci with precise strikes, she can outpoint her for a decision win.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds favoring Ricci at -125 compared to +105 for Torres was the biggest factor increasing the model's confidence in a Ricci win.

  • Recent Win Percentage: Ricci's 67% win percentage in her last 3 fights compared to 67% for Torres also boosted the model's prediction for Ricci.

  • Recent Takedowns: Ricci's 9.48 takedowns attempted per fight in her last 3 bouts was another key factor favoring her in the model's prediction, as it plays to her grappling strengths.

  • Striking Metrics Favor Torres: However, the striking data favors Torres in both volume and defense. Torres lands more significant strikes per minute (5.04 vs 4.33) and has better defense (68% vs 66%) in their recent fights. This decreased the model's confidence in a Ricci win.

Past Model Performance

The model has had mixed results predicting these two fighters:

  • For Ricci, the model correctly predicted her to beat Jessica Penne, but incorrectly picked Polyana Viana to defeat her.

  • In Torres' last fight, the model incorrectly predicted her to beat Mackenzie Dern.

With limited prediction history and some incorrect picks, there is some uncertainty in the model's prediction for this fight.

Conclusion

This fight comes down to a classic grappler vs striker matchup. Ricci has the clear grappling advantage and should look to utilize her wrestling and submission game. Torres is the more technical striker and will want to keep it standing.

The model favors Ricci to get the win, giving her a slight edge based on the odds and her ability to rack up takedowns. However, with Torres' striking prowess and the model's mixed prediction history, an upset wouldn't be shocking.

Ultimately, this is a close fight that could come down to where the bulk of it takes place - on the feet or on the ground. While the model sides with Ricci, Torres certainly has a path to victory if she can stuff the takedowns and utilize her kickboxing. It should be an entertaining scrap between two talented strawweights.

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Analysis: Billy Goff vs Trey Waters

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Trey Waters to Win

Score: 12 Odds: Billy Goff: 140 Trey Waters: -170

Billy Goff's Breakdown

Billy Goff is coming off an impressive KO/TKO victory over Yusaku Kinoshita in his UFC debut. He showcased powerful striking, landing 3.93 knockdowns per fight on average. Goff has solid takedown defense, successfully defending all takedowns attempted against him so far in his UFC career. His striking output is high, landing 11.27 strikes per minute, with 10.48 of those being significant strikes.

However, Goff absorbs a fair amount of strikes as well, taking 3.93 head strikes per minute. His striking defense percentage of 67.92% leaves room for improvement. With only one UFC fight, it remains to be seen how Goff will fare against higher level competition.

Trey Waters's Breakdown

Trey Waters is riding high after a unanimous decision win over Josh Quinlan in his last outing. He effectively mixed his striking with wrestling, landing a takedown and attempting 2 per fight on average. Waters' striking is technical and efficient, landing 6.93 significant strikes per minute at 51.23% accuracy.

Defensively, Waters holds his own, absorbing only 1.73 head strikes per minute with a solid 60.94% striking defense percentage. He maintains a strong striking and significant striking output differential over his opponents. With an 88.89% UFC win rate, Waters has proven himself a formidable contender in the welterweight division.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Goff's power striking vs Waters' technical approach: This bout pits Goff's explosive striking against Waters' more measured and diverse skill set. Goff will look to land heavy shots early, while Waters will aim to keep Goff at range and mix in timely takedowns.

  • Defensive capabilities will be tested: Both fighters land more significant strikes than they absorb, but Waters holds the edge in striking defense percentage. Goff's chin and ability to avoid Waters' precise strikes will be crucial.

  • Waters' wrestling could be a difference maker: While Goff has yet to be taken down in the UFC, Waters has shown an ability to land takedowns and control opponents on the mat. If Waters can drag Goff into grappling exchanges, it could sway the fight in his favor.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds favor Waters at -170, indicating he is the betting favorite. This aligns with the model's prediction and decreases the prediction score by 6.0.

  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Waters holds the advantage in recent significant striking impact differential, landing 54 more significant strikes than he absorbs. This decreases the prediction score favoring Goff by 2.0.

  • TrueSkill: Waters' higher TrueSkill rating of 31.62 compared to Goff's 25.0 increases the prediction score favoring Waters by 3.0.

  • Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: Waters' 2.0 takedowns attempted per fight compared to Goff's 3.93 increases the prediction score favoring Waters by 2.0, suggesting his wrestling could play a role.

  • Striking Defense Percentage: Waters' superior striking defense percentage of 60.94% compared to Goff's 67.92% increases the prediction score favoring Waters by 2.0.

Past Model Performance

The model did not make any past predictions for either Goff or Waters to compare against, so there is no past performance to analyze. This lack of historical data for the model on these fighters does introduce some uncertainty into the prediction.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts Trey Waters to defeat Billy Goff, giving him a 12 point edge. The model favors Waters' more well-rounded skill set, superior striking defense, and potential to mix in wrestling. Waters' higher TrueSkill rating and the betting odds also align with this pick.

However, Goff's explosive power striking and solid takedown defense make him a live underdog. If Goff can land cleanly on Waters early, he could score an upset KO.

Ultimately, Waters' more proven UFC track record and ability to win fights in various ways give him the edge in what should be an exciting welterweight clash. While Waters is the model's pick, be cautious with any wagers given the lack of past prediction data for these fighters.

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Analysis: Charles Johnson vs Jake Hadley

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jake Hadley to Win

Score: 3 Odds: Charles Johnson: 135 Jake Hadley: -165

Charles Johnson's Breakdown

Charles Johnson is a seasoned veteran of the UFC's flyweight division, with a respectable record of 4 wins and 3 losses. He's coming off a unanimous decision loss to Rafael Estevam in his last fight, but prior to that had a split decision win over Zhalgas Zhumagulov.

Johnson is primarily a striker, averaging 6.21 significant strikes landed per minute at a 60.9% accuracy. He has good defensive wrestling, with a 57.9% takedown defense ratio. However, he's been susceptible to head strikes, absorbing 1.43 per minute.

In his win over Zhumagulov, Johnson showed excellent striking defense, avoiding many of Zhumagulov's shots while landing his own crisp combinations. But in his loss to Muhammad Mokaev, he struggled with Mokaev's wrestling, giving up takedowns and control time.

Jake Hadley's Breakdown

Jake Hadley is a rising prospect in the flyweight division with a 2-2 UFC record. His last fight was a unanimous decision loss to Cody Durden, but before that he had an impressive first round KO win over Malcolm Gordon.

Hadley is a well-rounded fighter with dangerous submissions, averaging 1.94 submissions per fight. He's landed 3.47 significant strikes per minute at a 44.4% accuracy. Hadley's takedown defense has been stellar at 175%.

In his win over Gordon, Hadley showcased his grappling skills, taking Gordon's back and sinking in a rear-naked choke for the finish. But in his loss to Allan Nascimento, he was outstruck on the feet and struggled to implement his wrestling.

Analysis and Key Points

  • This is a matchup of a veteran striker in Johnson against a rising grappler in Hadley. Johnson will want to keep this fight standing, while Hadley will look for takedowns.
  • Hadley's submission threat could be a major factor. If he can get Johnson to the mat, he has the skills to end the fight.
  • Johnson's striking defense will be crucial. He needs to avoid Hadley's shots and make him pay on the counter.
  • Cardio could play a role if this goes into the later rounds. Both men have gone the distance multiple times.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Hadley has a significant advantage here with 1.25 compared to Johnson's 17.57. This suggests Hadley lands the more impactful strikes.
  • TrueSkill: The model sees Hadley as the more skilled fighter overall, with a higher TrueSkill rating.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Johnson only has a 33% win rate in his last few fights, compared to 67% for Hadley. The model sees Hadley as having more momentum.
  • Striking Defense Percentage: Hadley has the edge defensively, with a 51.7% strike defense compared to 48.7% for Johnson. He's statistically harder to hit.

Past Model Performance

The model has had mixed results predicting these two fighters.

For Johnson, it correctly predicted his wins over Jimmy Flick and Zhalgas Zhumagulov, but incorrectly picked against him in his loss to Azat Maksum.

With Hadley, the model has been less accurate, incorrectly picking him to beat Cody Durden in his last fight. However, it did correctly predict his wins over Malcolm Gordon and Carlos Candelario.

Given the model's recent inaccuracy on Hadley, there is some risk to the current prediction.

Conclusion

While Charles Johnson is the more experienced fighter, Jake Hadley has the grappling skills and physical tools to emerge victorious here. If Hadley can weather Johnson's early striking and secure takedowns, he has a clear path to victory via submission.

However, if Johnson can maintain distance, avoid the takedowns, and punish Hadley with counters, he could sway the judges with his striking volume. It's an intriguing style matchup, but ultimately Hadley's youth, athleticism and submission prowess lead the model to predict he will get his hand raised.

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Analysis: JJ Aldrich vs Veronica Hardy

WolfTicketsAI Predicts JJ Aldrich to Win

Score: 5 Odds: JJ Aldrich: 114 Veronica Hardy: -146

JJ Aldrich's Breakdown

JJ Aldrich is coming off an impressive KO/TKO victory over Liang Na in her last fight, showcasing her striking power. Prior to that she lost a close decision to the talented Ariane da Silva. Her striking defense and offensive wrestling have been strengths - she defends over 60% of significant strikes and averages over 3 takedown attempts per fight in her last 3 bouts. However, she will need to be wary of submissions, as she was submitted by Erin Blanchfield in 2022.

Veronica Hardy's Breakdown

Veronica Hardy just earned a hard-fought split decision win over Jamey-Lyn Horth, proving her toughness and cardio over 3 rounds. She's a dangerous submission threat, with over 0.5 submissions per fight in recent matches. Her takedown accuracy is lower at 36% but she is very active in attempting them, shooting for over 3.5 takedowns per fight recently. Striking defense is a potential weakness though, absorbing more significant strikes than she lands.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Both fighters are willing to grapple, with Aldrich landing 0.84 takedowns per fight and Hardy 1.17 takedowns recently. Whoever can control position and threaten submissions may have the edge.
  • Aldrich's striking defense is superior, defending 66% of significant strikes compared to just 49% for Hardy lately. JJ will need to punish Veronica if takedowns are stuffed.
  • Hardy has more paths to victory with her submission skills, while Aldrich will likely need to keep it standing and win on points with a higher striking pace and defense.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Striking Defense Percentage: JJ Aldrich's striking defense of 55% is significantly higher than Veronica Hardy's 39%, increasing the prediction score for Aldrich
  • Recent Win Percentage: Both fighters have a 67% win rate in their last 3 fights, but Aldrich's wins are considered slightly more impressive by the model
  • Odds: The Vegas odds slightly favor Hardy, but the model disagrees and sees value on Aldrich as an underdog
  • Recent Significant Striking Defense: Aldrich defends 10% more significant strikes than Hardy in their recent fights, a key factor in the model's prediction

Past Model Performance

  • The WolfTickets model has made 5 previous predictions on JJ Aldrich fights, going 3-2. The 2 incorrect picks were both as a moderate to heavy favorite though.
  • For Veronica Hardy, the model has only 1 prior prediction, taking Juliana Miller over Hardy which proved incorrect. So the model has limited data on Hardy.

Conclusion

While Veronica Hardy's submission skills make her a live underdog, JJ Aldrich's superior striking and takedown defense give her more paths to victory, especially over 3 rounds. The model sees enough value to make a moderate 5 unit play on Aldrich at plus odds. But given the lack of prior predictions on Hardy, some caution is warranted in what could be a closely contested fight.