Results: UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg

Fight Info:
Location: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Elevation: 380.00m
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…
WTAI Model
Main Under Full
75.0% 83.33% 80.0%
Profit Model
Main Under Full
75.0% 66.67% 70.0%
Plain Model
Main Under Full
50.0% 50.0% 50.0%
Selected Bets for Event:
ROI: 85.73%
Parlay Successful
Parlay of: Alexandre Pantoja, Drakkar Klose, Alessandro Costa
  • Odds: 281
Parlay Unsuccessful
Parlay of: Michel Pereira, Vitor Petrino, Myktybek Orolbai
  • Odds: -104
Parlay Successful
Parlay of: Ismael Bonfim, Iasmin Lucindo, Caio Borralho
  • Odds: -132

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorrect predictions are shown in red.
Main Card Predictions
Undercard Card Predictions
Fight Analysis
SHAP Chart

Analysis: Alexandre Pantoja vs Steve Erceg

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Alexandre Pantoja to Win

Score: 7 Odds: Alexandre Pantoja: -215 Steve Erceg: 164

Alexandre Pantoja's Breakdown

Alexandre Pantoja is a seasoned veteran in the UFC flyweight division with an impressive record of 14 wins and 3 losses. He's currently on a 2-fight win streak, most recently defeating Brandon Royval by unanimous decision to win the UFC Flyweight Championship.

Pantoja is known for his aggressive grappling style, averaging nearly 1 submission per fight over his UFC career. He's particularly dangerous from the back position, where he's finished multiple fights via rear-naked choke. On the feet, Pantoja has solid muay thai and pressures his opponents with combinations.

One potential concern is that in Pantoja's last loss to Askar Askarov in 2020, he was controlled on the ground for long stretches. However, he's since rebounded with 3 straight wins.

Steve Erceg's Breakdown

Steve Erceg is a relative newcomer to the UFC with a 3-0 record so far. He's finished 2 of those fights, most recently knocking out Matt Schnell in the 2nd round in an impressive showing.

From the limited sample size, Erceg appears to be a powerful and technical striker. He lands 4.57 significant strikes per minute at a 49% accuracy rate. His striking defense has also looked solid, avoiding 58% of his opponents' significant strike attempts.

The big question mark for Erceg is his grappling. He's only attempted 2.45 takedowns per fight in the UFC, and his takedown defense was exploited a bit by David Dvorak, who took him down 3 times. How will he fare if Pantoja is able to take him down and establish top control?

Analysis and Key Points

  • Pantoja's path to victory is on the ground. Look for him to close the distance and hunt for takedowns to utilize his black belt Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills.
  • Erceg wants to keep this fight standing. His striking looked very sharp against Schnell - if he can maintain distance and punish Pantoja as he tries to enter the clinch, he has a good chance of pulling the upset.
  • Erceg's takedown defense is untested at the highest level. This will likely be the deciding factor in the fight. If Erceg can consistently stop Pantoja's takedowns and make him pay on the feet, he could get the win. But if Pantoja is able to ground him, the submission threat is very real.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The betting odds heavily favor Pantoja, increasing the model's score by 11.0 points.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Pantoja's 100% win rate in his last 4 fights increases the score by 3.0 points.
  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Pantoja lands 5.07 more significant strikes per minute than he absorbs, compared to 11.0 for Erceg, increasing the score by 1.0 points for Pantoja.
  • Striking Defense Percentage: Erceg's striking defense of 49.7% is slightly better than Pantoja's 42.8%, decreasing the score by 1.0 points for Pantoja.

Past Model Performance

In Pantoja's 3 previous fights, WolfTickets predictions have been correct 2 out of 3 times: - Predicted Pantoja to beat Alex Perez and Brandon Royval, which he did. - Incorrectly predicted Brandon Moreno to beat Pantoja in their title fight.

For Erceg's only previous fight, WolfTickets correctly predicted him to beat Matt Schnell.

With only 1 past data point for Erceg and Pantoja's title fight loss, there is some uncertainty to the prediction.

Conclusion

This fight comes down to Pantoja's grappling vs Erceg's striking. Pantoja is far more proven against elite competition and has the more complete skill set. The model leans heavily towards his experience and well-rounded game.

However, Erceg's striking looked excellent against Schnell and could cause problems for Pantoja if he's able to stuff the takedowns. There's a path to victory for him, but it's narrow.

Overall, Pantoja should be favored, but the odds are a bit wide given Erceg's impressive performances so far. This shapes up as a fascinating style clash and a good test of just how good Erceg really is. Pantoja's experience and submission skills make him a deserving favorite, but an Erceg upset wouldn't be shocking.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Jonathan Martinez vs Jose Aldo

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jonathan Martinez to Win

Score: 9 Odds: Jonathan Martinez: -166 Jose Aldo: 130

Jonathan Martinez's Breakdown

Jonathan Martinez is riding a 5-fight win streak, with impressive victories over Adrian Yanez, Said Nurmagomedov, and Cub Swanson recently. Martinez has a diverse striking arsenal, mixing up kicks and punches effectively. Against Yanez, he landed a devastating head kick KO. His striking defense has been stellar, allowing him to outland opponents. Martinez also has underrated wrestling, averaging over 1 takedown attempt per fight. His cardio allows him to keep a high pace for 3 rounds.

Jose Aldo's Breakdown

Jose Aldo is a legend of the sport but may be past his prime at age 36. He's just 2-3 in his last 5 fights. Aldo still has fast hands and dangerous Muay Thai, but his volume and cardio have declined. He was controlled on the ground by Merab Dvalishvili in his last fight. While still defensively sound, Aldo absorbs more strikes than he used to. His legendary takedown defense has also looked more penetrable recently. That said, Aldo's fight IQ and ability to make reads mid-fight is as good as ever.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Martinez is 10 years younger and riding a 5-fight win streak, while Aldo is 2-3 in his last 5.
  • Martinez will likely have the cardio and volume advantage over 3 rounds.
  • Martinez's striking variety and slick defense could trouble Aldo.
  • Aldo's takedown defense isn't what it used to be and Martinez will test it.
  • Aldo still has the precision striking and veteran savvy to be dangerous, but Martinez is peaking.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Heavily favors Martinez, who does much more damage.
  • Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Also favors Martinez over their last 5 fights.
  • Odds: Martinez as a moderate betting favorite supports the prediction.
  • TrueSkill: Martinez's rating is a bit lower but very close to Aldo's.

Other factors like Martinez's reach advantage, higher striking defense percentage, and higher recent striking volume all support the prediction in his favor as well.

Past Model Performance

For Martinez, WolfTickets has a solid track record, correctly predicting 4 of his last 5 fights. The only miss was against Said Nurmagomedov.

For Aldo, WolfTickets only has data on the Dvalishvili fight, which it correctly predicted Aldo to lose.

The limited Aldo data does add some uncertainty, but the model's success with Martinez is encouraging for its prediction here.

Conclusion

While Jose Aldo is never an easy out, Jonathan Martinez has youth, momentum, cardio and well-roundedness on his side. Expect Martinez to start fast, keep a high pace, and mix in takedowns to keep Aldo guessing. Aldo will have moments with his explosive striking, but Martinez's length, speed and volume should be enough to earn him a clear decision or late stoppage. WolfTicketsAI has this as a high confidence pick and the evidence supports Martinez having his hand raised.

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Analysis: Anthony Smith vs Vitor Petrino

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Vitor Petrino to Win

Score: 27 Odds: Anthony Smith: 375 Vitor Petrino: -500

Anthony Smith's Breakdown

Anthony Smith is a veteran of the UFC with 37 wins and 19 losses. Known for his aggressive striking and submission skills, "Lionheart" has faced some of the top names in the light heavyweight division. In his recent fights, Smith has shown vulnerability to knockout losses, having been finished by strikes in 2 of his last 5 bouts against Magomed Ankalaev and Glover Teixeira.

Smith's striking defense has been a concern, absorbing 2.59 head strikes per minute over his career. However, he does possess dangerous offensive weapons, landing 3.27 significant strikes per minute with a respectable 49.87% accuracy. His submission game is also a threat, with 0.46 submissions per fight.

Vitor Petrino's Breakdown

The undefeated Vitor Petrino has been on a tear since joining the UFC, racking up 4 straight wins including 2 finishes. The Brazilian's well-rounded skillset has been on full display, showcasing powerful striking and a smothering grappling game.

Petrino's takedown ability stands out, landing 4.52 takedowns per fight at an impressive 68.18% accuracy. On the feet, he delivers 2.37 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 1.05 head strikes per minute, demonstrating solid defense. His 90.45% submission rate is also noteworthy, having tapped out Marcin Prachnio in his last outing.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Petrino's takedown offense could be a major factor. With Smith absorbing 1.97 takedowns per fight and Petrino landing them at a high clip, the Brazilian may look to bring the fight to the mat.
  • Smith's striking power is a wildcard. Despite defensive vulnerabilities, "Lionheart" has the ability to end the fight with one shot. Petrino will need to be wary of Smith's explosive attacks.
  • Momentum is on Petrino's side, riding a 4-fight win streak into this bout. In contrast, Smith has alternated wins and losses over his last 7 contests.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: Petrino's -500 odds compared to Smith's +375 line had the biggest impact, decreasing the prediction score by 17 points in Petrino's favor. The betting market sees Petrino as a significant favorite.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Smith's 33% win rate in his last 3 fights compared to Petrino's perfect 100% decreased the score by 3 points, favoring the Brazilian.
  • Striking Impact Differential: Over their careers, Petrino actually has a worse differential of -20.5 compared to Smith's -14.57. This slightly increased the score for Smith by 1 point.

Past Model Performance

WolfTickets AI has been perfect in predicting Petrino's fights so far, correctly calling all 3 of his UFC wins with confidence scores ranging from 67% to 75%. This lends credibility to the model's prediction here.

For Smith, the AI has been less consistent, going 2-2 in its last 4 predictions. It correctly called underdog wins by Ankalaev and Walker, but incorrectly had Spann winning their August 2023 bout. Smith's unpredictability makes him a tougher fighter to forecast.

Conclusion

Vitor Petrino enters this fight as a deserving favorite over Anthony Smith. The Brazilian's grappling prowess and multi-faceted attack have fueled his unbeaten run in the UFC. While Smith's experience and stopping power cannot be overlooked, his inconsistency and defensive holes are concerning. Barring a vintage "Lionheart" performance, Petrino's pressure and offensive wrestling could be the difference makers en route to a 5th straight octagon triumph.

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Analysis: Michel Pereira vs Ihor Potieria

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Michel Pereira to Win

Score: 28 Odds: Michel Pereira: -520 Ihor Potieria: 350

Michel Pereira's Breakdown

Michel Pereira is riding a two-fight winning streak, with finishes in both of his last bouts at middleweight. In his most recent fight against Michal Oleksiejczuk, Pereira secured a first-round submission victory, showcasing his grappling prowess. Prior to that, he scored a highlight-reel first-round knockout over Andre Petroski, demonstrating his explosive striking abilities.

Throughout his UFC career, Pereira has displayed a diverse skill set, with wins coming by way of submission and KO/TKO. His unorthodox and unpredictable striking style often catches opponents off guard, and he's not afraid to mix in flying knees, spinning attacks, and acrobatic techniques. On the ground, Pereira is a threat as well, with a solid submission game.

Ihor Potieria's Breakdown

Ihor Potieria recently snapped a two-fight skid with a unanimous decision win over Robert Bryczek. However, prior to that victory, Potieria suffered back-to-back knockout losses against Rodolfo Bellato and Carlos Ulberg at light heavyweight. This will be Potieria's first fight at middleweight in the UFC.

Potieria has shown knockout power in his own right, with a KO/TKO win over Mauricio Rua in his UFC debut. He lands a high volume of significant strikes, averaging 5.22 per minute. However, his striking defense has been a concern, as he absorbs 4.03 significant strikes per minute in his recent fights.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Momentum is on Pereira's side with two straight finishes, while Potieria is coming off a decision win following consecutive KO losses.
  • Pereira's unorthodox and dynamic striking could pose problems for Potieria, who has been susceptible to taking damage in his recent bouts.
  • Although Potieria has power, Pereira's striking defense (56.2% in recent fights) is superior to Potieria's (42.9%).
  • Pereira's grappling and submission skills give him another path to victory if the fight hits the mat.
  • This will be Potieria's first fight at 185 pounds in the UFC, so it remains to be seen how he will fare against a larger middleweight like Pereira.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds heavily favor Pereira (-520), which significantly increased the model's prediction score.
  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Pereira lands 17.72 significant strikes for every 15 minutes in his recent fights, compared to just 12.8 for Potieria, giving Pereira the edge.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Pereira has won his last 3 fights (100%), while Potieria has only won 1 of his last 3 (33%).
  • Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage: Pereira defends 64.1% of significant strikes in recent fights, much better than Potieria's 42.9%.

Past Model Performance

The model has a solid track record in predicting Pereira's fights, correctly picking him to win his last three bouts with increasing confidence scores.

For Potieria, the model correctly predicted his win over Mauricio Rua and his loss to Carlos Ulberg. While limited data, the model seems to have a decent read on Potieria so far.

Conclusion

Michel Pereira appears to have the advantage in striking, grappling, and momentum heading into this middleweight clash. His unorthodox and high-impact striking, coupled with solid takedown defense and a dangerous submission game, make him a tough stylistic matchup for Ihor Potieria.

While Potieria has power in his hands, his defensive deficiencies and the move down to middleweight raise questions. The model, taking into account the betting odds and key statistical advantages, is quite confident in picking Pereira to emerge victorious.

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Analysis: Paul Craig vs Caio Borralho

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Caio Borralho to Win

Score: 19 Odds: Paul Craig: 375 Caio Borralho: -500

Paul Craig's Breakdown

Paul Craig is a submission specialist with 8 of his 17 wins coming by way of submission. He's known for his tricky guard and ability to snatch up leg locks from seemingly nowhere. In his last fight against Andre Muniz, Craig was able to weather an early storm and catch Muniz with an upkick KO in the second round, showing he has power to go along with his grappling prowess.

However, Craig is coming off a loss to Brendan Allen where he was outgrappled and submitted in the third round. This exposed some holes in his usually dangerous ground game. Craig has also been finished by strikes in 4 of his 7 losses, so his striking defense can be lacking at times.

Caio Borralho's Breakdown

Caio Borralho is a well-rounded prospect who is undefeated in the UFC at 5-0. He has a solid striking game, landing 4.57 significant strikes per minute at a 74% accuracy in his UFC career so far. On the mat, Borralho has shown excellent grappling with 2.45 takedowns per fight and a submission win over Michal Oleksiejczuk in his last outing.

Borralho's striking defense has been stellar, avoiding 63% of his opponent's significant strike attempts in the UFC. His gas tank and pace have also been impressive, often taking over fights in the later rounds with volume and pressure.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Submission threat vs submission defense: Much of this fight will likely come down to the grappling exchanges. Craig is always hunting for submissions, especially leg locks, but Borralho has yet to be submitted in his career and sports an excellent 73% takedown accuracy.
  • Striking clash: On the feet, Borralho seems to have the edge in both output and defense. He lands nearly 2 more significant strikes per minute than Craig while absorbing far less in return. Craig will need to mind Borralho's sharp boxing and kicking game.
  • Momentum and trajectory: Borralho is still young in his career and improving every fight. Meanwhile, Craig is 2-3 in his last 5 with a couple stoppage losses. The momentum seems to be on Borralho's side.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The oddsmakers have Borralho as a substantial favorite at -500, indicating he's seen as having a very high chance to win. This lines up with the model's prediction for Borralho and decreased the score by 17 points for Craig.

  • Recent Win Percentage: Borralho is a perfect 5-0 in his last 5 UFC fights while Craig has lost 2 of his last 3. The model saw this recent win percentage as a 3 point confidence booster for Borralho.

  • Significant Striking Metrics: Borralho has advantages in both striking output and defense over Craig in terms of significant strikes landed and absorbed per minute. This was seen as a positive for Borralho in the model.

  • Reach: Borralho will have a 1-inch reach advantage which the model saw as a small positive in his favor.

Past Model Performance

In the past, the model has had success predicting both fighters, but has been more accurate overall with Borralho:

  • The model is 2-0 predicting Borralho's fights, correctly calling his last 2 wins.
  • For Craig, the model is 3-2, incorrectly picking him to beat Volkan Oezdemir and losing to Andre Muniz.

So while not perfect, the model has a solid track record here, especially on the Borralho side. The incorrect pick against Muniz does add a small bit of uncertainty though given Craig's submission skills.

Conclusion

All signs point to a Caio Borralho victory here. He has the statistical advantages in striking and has never been submitted, which is Craig's best path to victory. Combine that with Borralho's spotless UFC record and the oddsmakers heavy lean towards him, and he seems like a very justifiable pick by the model.

The only real cause for concern would be Craig catching Borralho in a submission out of nowhere, as he's known to do. But Borralho has been very difficult to control on the ground and always scrambles well back to his feet. Expect the younger, faster, more technical fighter in Borralho to get his hand raised and continue his unbeaten UFC run, likely by decision. The model's 19 point prediction margin feels appropriate.

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Analysis: Jack Shore vs Joanderson Brito

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jack Shore to Win

Score: 3 Odds: Jack Shore: 140 Joanderson Brito: -170

Jack Shore's Breakdown

Shore is a well-rounded fighter with a strong grappling base. He's coming off an impressive submission win over Makwan Amirkhani in March, showcasing his slick submission skills. Shore has finished 4 of his 6 UFC wins by submission, using his wrestling to get the fight to the mat where he can hunt for chokes and locks.

His striking has steadily improved, landing crisp combos and mixing in leg kicks to keep opponents guessing. In his last fight, Shore landed a beautiful knee to the body that crumpled Amirkhani, setting up the fight-ending choke.

However, Shore's lone UFC loss came against Ricky Simon who was able to outwrestle him and secure a submission of his own. Shore will need to shore up his submission defense against a dangerous grappler like Brito.

Joanderson Brito's Breakdown

Brito is a ferocious finisher, with 3 stoppages in his 4 UFC wins. He's riding a 4-fight win streak with nasty knockouts over the likes of Westin Wilson and Andre Fili. Brito has legitimate one-punch KO power and throws with bad intentions.

On the mat, Brito is a crafty submission artist. He's tapped out his last two opponents, locking in a tight arm-triangle choke on Jonathan Pearce in his most recent bout. Brito's grappling is often overlooked due to his striking prowess, but he's a threat everywhere.

The one knock on Brito is his cardio. He throws with such power and intensity early that he's prone to fading in later rounds. In a 3-round fight that could be less of a factor, but something to watch for if Shore can weather the early storm.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Classic grappler vs striker matchup with Shore's wrestling and submissions against Brito's knockout power
  • Brito's 4-fight win streak is impressive and he has momentum
  • Shore's sole loss came by submission, something Brito is very capable of pulling off
  • Brito's cardio could become an issue if this goes deep into the fight
  • Shore will look to mix in takedowns and work from top position
  • Brito wants to keep this standing and land power shots

Understanding the Prediction

  • Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: This feature favors Shore, who attempts 10.15 takedowns per fight in his last 3 bouts compared to just 5.22 for Brito. Shore's wrestling could be a key factor.

  • Striking Defense Percentage: Shore absorbs less significant strikes, with a 50% defense percentage compared to just 30% for Brito. Shore is better at avoiding damage.

  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Shore lands 19.57 more significant strikes than he absorbs per fight, while Brito only has a +0.80 differential. Shore is able to consistently outland opponents.

Past Model Performance

The model has been reasonably accurate on both fighters:

  • Correctly predicted Shore to beat Amirkhani and Valiev, but incorrectly picked him over Simon
  • Correctly predicted Brito's last two wins over Pearce and Fili

This improves confidence in the pick, but Shore's submission loss is still a risk factor given Brito's grappling skills.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts Jack Shore to wrestle his way to a win over Joanderson Brito. While Brito has the edge in pure knockout power, Shore's grappling and measured striking give him more paths to victory.

Look for Shore to mix in takedowns and control from top position, wearing Brito down over the course of the fight. If Brito can stuff the takedowns and land a big shot early he has a chance, but the pick is Shore to grind this one out for the W.

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Analysis: Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Iasmin Lucindo

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Iasmin Lucindo to Win

Score: 19 Odds: Karolina Kowalkiewicz: 290 Iasmin Lucindo: -375

Karolina Kowalkiewicz's Breakdown

Karolina Kowalkiewicz is a veteran of the UFC strawweight division with a record of 16 wins and 7 losses. She is currently riding a 4-fight win streak, with her most recent victory coming by unanimous decision over Diana Belbita in October 2023. Kowalkiewicz is a well-rounded fighter with solid striking and grappling skills. She has a tendency to engage in high-volume striking battles, landing 7.29 strikes per minute while absorbing 6.54. Her striking defense (54.69%) and accuracy (47.80%) are above average for the division.

Kowalkiewicz's grappling game is also noteworthy, as she averages 0.36 takedowns per fight at a 26.32% accuracy rate. She has secured one submission win in her UFC career, showing her ability to finish fights on the ground. However, her takedown defense (34.88%) is a potential area of concern.

Iasmin Lucindo's Breakdown

Iasmin Lucindo is a rising prospect in the UFC with a record of 15 wins and 5 losses. She is coming off a submission victory over Polyana Viana in August 2023, showcasing her dangerous ground game. Lucindo averages an impressive 2.33 takedowns per fight at a 66.67% accuracy rate, indicating her strong wrestling base.

On the feet, Lucindo is a volume striker, landing 3.98 strikes per minute while absorbing 3.51. Her striking defense (63.53%) and accuracy (43.75%) are solid, but not exceptional. She does possess a diverse striking arsenal, mixing in leg kicks, head strikes, and body shots effectively.

Lucindo's grappling is her strongest asset, as evidenced by her 0.39 submissions per fight and high takedown rate. She is aggressive in seeking takedowns (3.49 attempts per fight) and has the ability to control and finish fights on the ground.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Contrasting Styles: This matchup pits Kowalkiewicz's high-volume striking against Lucindo's grappling-heavy approach. The fighter who can impose their game plan will likely emerge victorious.
  • Grappling Advantage: Lucindo holds a significant advantage in the grappling department, with higher takedown and submission rates. If she can consistently take Kowalkiewicz down, she could dominate the fight.
  • Striking Matchup: On the feet, Kowalkiewicz holds the edge in volume (7.29 vs 3.98 strikes landed per minute) and accuracy (47.80% vs 43.75%). However, Lucindo's striking defense (63.53%) is superior to Kowalkiewicz's (54.69%).
  • Momentum: Kowalkiewicz is riding a 4-fight win streak, while Lucindo has won 2 of her last 3 fights. Both fighters will enter the bout with confidence.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds heavily favor Lucindo (-375) over Kowalkiewicz (+290), indicating that the betting market sees Lucindo as the clear favorite. This aligns with the model's prediction and decreases the score by 16 points.
  • Win Streak Difference: Kowalkiewicz's 4-fight win streak compared to Lucindo's 1-fight win streak increases the score by 2 points, favoring Kowalkiewicz slightly.
  • Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Kowalkiewicz's higher recent significant striking impact differential increases the score by 1 point, indicating her edge in striking power.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Kowalkiewicz's 100% win rate in her last 4 fights increases the score by 1 point, reflecting her recent success.
  • Striking Impact Differential: Kowalkiewicz's superior career striking impact differential increases the score by 1 point.
  • Average Striking Output Differential: Kowalkiewicz lands 4.81 more strikes per minute than her opponents on average, increasing the score by 1 point.
  • Striking Defense Percentage: Lucindo's higher striking defense percentage (63.53% vs 54.69%) decreases the score by 1 point, favoring her ability to avoid strikes.

Past Model Performance

The WolfTickets model has an impressive track record in predicting both fighters' recent performances:

  • For Karolina Kowalkiewicz, the model correctly predicted her last 4 fights, all resulting in victories. The model's confidence scores ranged from 0.31 to 0.75.
  • For Iasmin Lucindo, the model accurately predicted her last 2 fights, a submission win over Polyana Viana (score of 0.33) and a unanimous decision victory against Brogan Walker (score of 0.81).

Given the model's success in predicting these fighters' outcomes, there is increased confidence in its current prediction of Lucindo winning.

Conclusion

The WolfTicketsAI model predicts Iasmin Lucindo to defeat Karolina Kowalkiewicz with a confidence score of 19. Lucindo's grappling prowess, striking defense, and the betting odds in her favor are the key factors behind this prediction. While Kowalkiewicz's high-volume striking and recent win streak make her a formidable opponent, Lucindo's ability to dictate the fight with her wrestling and submissions gives her the edge. The model's strong track record in predicting both fighters' recent bouts further supports this conclusion. Expect an entertaining clash of styles, with Lucindo likely emerging victorious if she can implement her grappling-centric game plan.

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Analysis: Elves Brener vs Myktybek Orolbai

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Myktybek Orolbai to Win

Score: 18 Odds: Elves Brener: 200 Myktybek Orolbai: -250

Elves Brener's Breakdown

Elves Brener is riding a 3-fight win streak in the UFC, showcasing his striking prowess with two KO/TKO victories over Kaynan Kruschewsky and Guram Kutateladze. In his most recent bout against Kruschewsky at Catch Weight, Brener displayed his power, ending the fight definitively. Against Kutateladze at Lightweight, he once again proved his ability to finish fights with strikes.

Brener's striking game is well-rounded, with a mix of head strikes (2.41 per minute), body strikes (1.24 per minute), and leg kicks (0.99 per minute). His striking accuracy stands at 51.9%, and he lands an impressive 5.91 strikes per minute.

Myktybek Orolbai's Breakdown

Myktybek Orolbai made an impressive UFC debut, submitting Uros Medic at Welterweight. With a professional record of 12 wins and only 1 loss, Orolbai has proven his grappling prowess, averaging 1.63 submissions per fight and 11.41 takedowns per fight.

Orolbai's grappling-heavy approach is evident in his striking stats, landing only 1.74 strikes per minute, with a focus on head strikes (0.65 per minute). However, his takedown accuracy is an impressive 70%, and he attempts 16.30 takedowns per fight, making him a constant threat on the ground.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Grappler vs Striker matchup: Orolbai's grappling skills will be put to the test against Brener's striking arsenal.
  • Brener's finishing ability: With two recent KO/TKO victories, Brener has shown he can end fights quickly with his strikes.
  • Orolbai's submission threat: Averaging 1.63 submissions per fight, Orolbai will look to take the fight to the ground and secure a submission victory.
  • Welterweight vs Lightweight: Orolbai's recent fight was at Welterweight, while Brener has been competing at Lightweight. The size difference could play a factor in the grappling exchanges.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds significantly favor Orolbai, decreasing the prediction score by 13 points.
  • Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: Orolbai's high volume of takedown attempts (16.30 per fight) decreased the prediction score by 6 points, indicating his grappling-heavy approach.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Brener's 100% win rate in his last 3 fights increased the prediction score by 3 points.
  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Brener's higher significant striking impact differential increased the prediction score by 1 point.

Past Model Performance

The model predicted Guram Kutateladze to win against Elves Brener with a score of 0.80, but this prediction was incorrect, as Brener won by KO/TKO in round 3. This previous incorrect prediction for Brener should be considered when assessing the current prediction's reliability.

There is no past prediction data available for Myktybek Orolbai, which adds uncertainty to the current prediction.

Conclusion

In this classic grappler vs striker matchup, Myktybek Orolbai's grappling prowess is expected to neutralize Elves Brener's striking game. Orolbai's high volume of takedown attempts and submission average suggest he will persistently pursue the fight on the ground. However, Brener's recent KO/TKO victories and striking accuracy make him a dangerous opponent on the feet.

The model's prediction favors Orolbai, largely influenced by the odds and his grappling-heavy approach. However, the model's previous incorrect prediction for Brener and the lack of prediction data for Orolbai add uncertainty to the current prediction. As always in MMA, anything can happen, and both fighters have paths to victory in this intriguing matchup.

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Analysis: Joaquim Silva vs Drakkar Klose

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Drakkar Klose to Win

Score: 17 Odds: Joaquim Silva: 145 Drakkar Klose: -175

Joaquim Silva's Breakdown

Joaquim Silva has shown promise in his UFC career with a 6-4 record, but has struggled with consistency. His striking defense is a concern, absorbing 3.15 head strikes per minute over his career. In his KO/TKO loss to Arman Tsarukyan, he was overwhelmed by Tsarukyan's pressure and volume, getting hit cleanly multiple times.

However, Silva has power in his own hands, as evidenced by his KO/TKO win over Jesse Ronson where he landed a devastating left hook in the second round. He will need to keep the fight at range and look for openings to land his own power shots to have a chance at victory.

Drakkar Klose's Breakdown

Drakkar Klose has been impressive in the UFC with an 8-2 record. He is a well-rounded fighter with solid striking and grappling. In his win over Rafa Garcia, he used his wrestling to control the fight, landing 6 takedowns.

On the feet, Klose has good volume, landing 4.31 significant strikes per minute. He mixes his strikes well to the head and body. In his KO/TKO win over Brandon Jenkins, he hurt Jenkins with a body kick before finishing with punches. Klose's striking defense is also solid, only absorbing 1.55 head strikes per minute.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Klose has the grappling advantage. He averages 1.78 takedowns per fight compared to just 0.45 for Silva. Look for Klose to use his wrestling to control the fight.
  • Klose is the more active and accurate striker. He lands 6.57 total strikes per minute at 63% accuracy, compared to 5.23 strikes at 49% accuracy for Silva.
  • Silva's striking defense is a liability. He absorbs 3.15 head strikes per minute, while Klose only absorbs 1.55. Klose should have opportunities to land cleanly.
  • Silva has a puncher's chance with his power. He has shown the ability to end fights with one shot. But he will need to keep Klose at range to have a chance to land.

Understanding the Prediction

  • The odds significantly favor Klose, decreasing the model's score for Silva by 7 points. The betting market sees Klose as a clear favorite.
  • Klose has the edge in significant striking, with a differential of +11 strikes per fight compared to -11.5 for Silva. This decreased the score for Silva by 2 points.
  • Silva's low 67% recent win rate compared to Klose's 100% decreased the score for Silva by another 2 points.

Past Model Performance

WolfTickets has a good track record predicting these fighters, going 3-0 in predicting Klose's fights, including his last 3 wins. The model is 1-2 in predicting Silva's fights though, incorrectly picking him to lose his last win vs Clay Guida.

While Klose looks like a strong favorite, Silva can never be counted out due to his KO power. The model's past performance suggests we can trust it more for Klose than Silva.

Conclusion

Drakkar Klose looks like a strong favorite over Joaquim Silva. His grappling and high-volume striking should allow him to control the fight. Silva's striking defense is a major concern against a sharp boxer like Klose.

Silva's path to victory is to keep the fight at range and land a big power shot. But Klose's own striking skills and grappling should allow him to dictate where the fight takes place.

WolfTickets has Klose favored to win for good reason, but with Silva's KO power, an upset is always possible. This looks like a good spot to back Klose, but be wary of Silva's ability to end a fight with one strike.

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Analysis: Ismael Bonfim vs Vinc Pichel

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Ismael Bonfim to Win

Score: 25 Odds: Ismael Bonfim: -500 Vinc Pichel: 375

Ismael Bonfim's Breakdown

Ismael Bonfim is an explosive fighter with a knack for finishing fights early. In his UFC debut against Terrance McKinney, Bonfim showcased his power, landing a devastating flying knee that ended the fight in the second round. His striking is precise and impactful, with a significant striking accuracy of 65.75% and a significant striking impact differential of 10.5, meaning he lands harder shots than his opponents.

However, Bonfim's last fight against Benoit Saint Denis exposed some holes in his game. He was submitted in the first round, indicating potential weaknesses in his grappling defense. This is something to watch out for against a well-rounded fighter like Pichel.

Vinc Pichel's Breakdown

Vinc Pichel is a veteran of the sport with a well-rounded skill set. He has solid wrestling, landing 3 takedowns per fight on average with a 54.55% accuracy. On the feet, Pichel has a diverse striking arsenal, landing 5.39 strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 56.7%.

Pichel's last fight against Mark Madsen ended in a unanimous decision loss, but prior to that, he had put together a impressive four-fight win streak. His experience and ability to push a high pace for three rounds could be key factors in this matchup.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Bonfim's explosive striking vs Pichel's diverse attack: Bonfim's power and accuracy will be tested against Pichel's high-volume striking approach.
  • Grappling could be the deciding factor: With Bonfim's recent submission loss and Pichel's strong wrestling, the fight could be won or lost in the grappling exchanges.
  • Pace and cardio down the stretch: Pichel's ability to maintain a high pace for 15 minutes could wear on Bonfim if the fight goes into the later rounds.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds significantly favor Bonfim: The betting odds of -500 for Bonfim compared to +375 for Pichel was the biggest factor in the model favoring Bonfim, increasing the prediction score by 25 points.
  • Bonfim's striking impact: Bonfim's significant striking impact differential of 10.5 compared to Pichel's 12.7 gave him a slight edge, increasing the score by 1 point.
  • Pichel's volume and defense: Pichel attempts more strikes per minute (9.34 vs 6.01) and has a higher striking defense percentage (52.99% vs 51.33%), but these factors only decreased the score slightly in Bonfim's favor.

Past Model Performance

The model previously predicted Bonfim to beat Benoit Saint Denis with an 83% confidence, but that prediction proved incorrect when Bonfim was submitted in the first round.

For Pichel, the model predicted him to beat Mark Madsen with 76% confidence, but Pichel ended up losing a unanimous decision.

With both fighters coming off losses where the model favored them to win, there is some additional uncertainty around this prediction.

Conclusion

This is a compelling matchup between an explosive young prospect in Ismael Bonfim and a crafty veteran in Vinc Pichel. The model favors Bonfim based largely on the lopsided betting odds, but Pichel's experience and well-rounded game make him a live underdog.

The key factors to watch will be Bonfim's striking impact vs Pichel's volume, the grappling exchanges, and how the pace and cardio hold up if the fight goes into the later rounds. With both men coming off losses, they'll be eager to make a statement.

While the model predicts a Bonfim victory, Pichel is a seasoned vet who can never be counted out. It should be an exciting fight for as long as it lasts.

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Analysis: Alessandro Costa vs Kevin Borjas

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Alessandro Costa to Win

Score: 23 Odds: Alessandro Costa: -145 Kevin Borjas: 120

Alessandro Costa's Breakdown

Alessandro Costa is a seasoned veteran in the UFC's flyweight division, with a respectable record of 13 wins and 4 losses. His striking game is his biggest asset, with a significant striking impact differential of 3.6667, indicating he lands more impactful strikes than he absorbs. In his recent win against Jimmy Flick, Costa showcased his power by securing a KO/TKO victory in round 2.

However, Costa's takedown defense could be a potential vulnerability, with a takedown defense ratio of just 0.1429. If Borjas can exploit this weakness and take the fight to the ground, it could spell trouble for Costa.

Kevin Borjas's Breakdown

Kevin Borjas is a relative newcomer to the UFC, with just one fight under his belt - a unanimous decision loss to Joshua Van. In that fight, Borjas struggled to mount much offense, absorbing far more strikes than he landed. His significant striking impact differential of -81 is a red flag, suggesting he may have trouble hanging with Costa on the feet.

On the bright side, Borjas did showcase solid takedown defense in his UFC debut, successfully stuffing all of Van's attempts. His takedown defense ratio of 1.0 could come in handy if Costa tries to take him down.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Costa has a significant edge in striking impact, which could be the deciding factor in this fight.
  • Borjas will need to find a way to neutralize Costa's striking and take the fight to the ground if he hopes to pull off the upset.
  • Costa's takedown defense is a concern, and if Borjas can exploit it, he may have a path to victory.
  • With only one UFC fight under his belt, Borjas is still largely untested at this level, making it difficult to predict how he'll fare against a veteran like Costa.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Costa's value of 3.6667 is much higher than Borjas' -81, indicating Costa lands far more impactful strikes. This was a major factor in the model's prediction.
  • Striking Impact Differential: Again, Costa holds a sizable advantage here with 2.6667 compared to Borjas' -87. The model sees this as another key reason to favor Costa.
  • Odds: The betting odds also lean towards Costa, which the model takes into account in its prediction.
  • Striking Defense Percentage: Costa's striking defense percentage of 0.4175 is slightly lower than Borjas' 0.4695, but not enough to sway the model's prediction given Costa's other advantages.

Past Model Performance

The model has only made one previous prediction for these fighters - correctly picking Costa to beat Jimmy Flick. With such a limited sample size, it's hard to draw any firm conclusions about the model's accuracy here. The lack of past predictions for Borjas does introduce some additional uncertainty.

Conclusion

Alessandro Costa appears to hold significant advantages in striking impact and overall UFC experience, making him a solid favorite in this flyweight bout. While Kevin Borjas showcased good takedown defense in his UFC debut, his striking deficiencies are a major concern against a powerful puncher like Costa.

Unless Borjas can consistently take Costa down and keep him there, the Italian fighter's superior striking is likely to be the difference-maker. WolfTicketsAI predicts an Alessandro Costa victory, but with only moderate confidence given the limited data on Kevin Borjas.