Results: UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez

Fight Info:
Location: Enterprise, Nevada, United States
Elevation: 777.00m
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…
WTAI Model
Main Under Full
20.0% 66.67% 45.45%
Profit Model
Main Under Full
0.0% 66.67% 36.36%
Plain Model
Main Under Full
0.0% 50.0% 27.27%
Selected Bets for Event:
ROI: 18.87%
Parlay Successful
Single Bet on: Ivana Petrovic
  • Odds: -530

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorrect predictions are shown in red.
Main Card Predictions
Undercard Card Predictions
Fight Analysis
SHAP Chart

Analysis: Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Matheus Nicolau to Win

Score: 10 Odds: Matheus Nicolau: -186 Alex Perez: 144

Matheus Nicolau's Breakdown

Matheus Nicolau is a well-rounded fighter with a diverse skillset. He has excellent striking, with crisp boxing and effective Muay Thai. In his recent win over Matt Schnell, Nicolau showcased his power, dropping Schnell with a heavy right hand before finishing him with follow-up strikes on the ground.

Nicolau is also a skilled grappler with a dangerous submission game. Against Tim Elliott, he was able to control the fight on the mat, nearly sinking in a rear-naked choke in the first round. His takedown defense is solid too, allowing him to keep fights standing when needed.

However, Nicolau is coming off a brutal KO loss to Brandon Royval in his last fight. Getting finished like that can sometimes impact a fighter's chin and confidence moving forward. It will be important to see how he bounces back from that.

Alex Perez's Breakdown

Alex Perez is an aggressive fighter who pushes a high pace. He has good wrestling and is always looking for takedowns. In his win over Jordan Espinosa, Perez landed 5 takedowns and controlled the majority of the fight on the mat.

On the feet, Perez has solid boxing and powerful low kicks. He knocked out Jose Torres with a clean left hook, demonstrating his one-punch KO power. However, his striking defense can be porous at times. He absorbed a lot of damage in his last fight against Muhammad Mokaev.

The biggest concern for Perez is that he's lost his last 3 fights, all by stoppage. Two of those were submission losses to high-level grapplers in Deiveson Figueiredo and Alexandre Pantoja. If he can't keep this fight standing, he could be in trouble against a skilled submission artist like Nicolau.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Nicolau's well-rounded skills: Striking, grappling, submissions
  • Nicolau's power: Knocked out Schnell in last win
  • Perez's wrestling: Landed 5 takedowns vs Espinosa
  • Perez's losing streak: Lost last 3, all by stoppage
  • Perez's submission losses: Could spell trouble vs Nicolau
  • Nicolau's KO loss to Royval: Need to see how he bounces back

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds heavily favor Nicolau at -186 compared to +144 for Perez, significantly increasing the prediction score
  • Recent Win Percentage: Nicolau's 67% win rate in his last 6 fights is far better than Perez's 0%, increasing prediction confidence
  • Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Nicolau lands 7.12 more significant strikes per minute than he absorbs recently, compared to 8.27 for Perez, giving Nicolau the edge
  • Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage: Nicolau defends 73% of significant strikes recently vs just 56% for Perez, further favoring Nicolau

Past Model Performance

WolfTickets has accurately predicted Nicolau's last 2 wins with high confidence (78% vs both Schnell and Dvorak). Its one miss was the KO loss to Royval.

For Perez, WolfTickets has correctly predicted his last 2 losses to Mokaev and Pantoja, both with 70%+ confidence. This suggests the model has a good read on Perez's current decline.

With Nicolau's recent success and favorable stylistic matchup, combined with Perez's losing streak, the high confidence in a Nicolau victory seems justified based on past model performance.

Conclusion

Matheus Nicolau appears to have all the tools to get the job done here. His striking is technical and powerful, and he can fall back on his grappling and submissions if needed. The model's recent success in predicting both fighters' outcomes lends added confidence.

The main concern is how Nicolau will look coming off a brutal KO loss. If he's gun-shy or his chin is compromised, an aggressive finisher like Perez could capitalize. But Perez's 3-fight losing streak and poor showing against Mokaev's wrestling suggest he's in decline.

Ultimately, Nicolau's more well-rounded skillset and superior recent performances make him a justifiable betting favorite. Unless he shows lingering effects from the Royval KO, expect Nicolau's striking and grappling to be too much for Perez to overcome.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Ryan Spann vs Bogdan Guskov

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Ryan Spann to Win

Score: 14 Odds: Ryan Spann: -200 Bogdan Guskov: 165

Ryan Spann's Breakdown

Ryan Spann is a seasoned UFC veteran with 11 fights under his belt in the promotion. His record stands at 7 wins and 4 losses in the UFC, with his most recent fights being back-to-back losses against top contenders Anthony Smith and Nikita Krylov. Prior to that though, Spann had scored impressive wins over Dominick Reyes (KO/TKO), Ion Cutelaba (Submission), and Misha Cirkunov (KO/TKO).

Spann has solid wrestling and grappling skills, averaging 1.3 takedowns per fight at a 35% accuracy rate. On the feet, he lands 3.36 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.97, giving him a slight edge in output. His striking defense (45.7%) is decent but not impenetrable.

One potential red flag is that Spann has been finished by submission in 2 of his last 3 losses. His takedown defense will need to be on point against a submission threat like Guskov.

Bogdan Guskov's Breakdown

Bogdan Guskov is a relative newcomer to the UFC with just 2 fights so far, going 1-1. He lost his debut by submission to Volkan Oezdemir, but bounced back with a KO/TKO win over Zac Pauga in his sophomore outing.

The limited sample size makes it tougher to analyze Guskov's game. But in those 2 UFC fights, he's displayed solid striking output, landing 4.73 strikes per minute. However, his defense has been porous, absorbing 5.68 strikes per minute. Guskov has yet to attempt a takedown in the UFC and was taken down and submitted in his debut, so the grappling aspect of his game is still a question mark.

The KO win over Pauga showed Guskov has legitimate stopping power on the feet. But overall, he's still largely unproven against UFC caliber competition.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Experience heavily favors Spann. With 11 UFC fights compared to just 2 for Guskov, Spann has seen far more high level competition.

  • Spann's grappling could be a factor. He lands 1.3 takedowns per fight and has submission wins on his record. Guskov has yet to attempt a takedown in the UFC and has been submitted before.

  • Guskov's defensive holes are concerning. He absorbs 5.68 strikes per minute, far more than he lands. Spann may be able to exploit this with volume or wrestle him to the mat.

  • Prediction comes with some uncertainty due to Guskov's small sample size of UFC fights. He's more of an unknown commodity.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds (-200 Spann, +165 Guskov): The odds indicate Spann is a moderate betting favorite, which aligns with the model favoring him to win. The betting market seems to concur that Spann should be favored based on his experience.

  • Recent Win Percentage (Spann 33%, Guskov 33%): Both fighters have gone 1-2 in their last 3 fights. This suggests neither one enters with much momentum, making this a tricky style matchup to handicap.

  • Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight (Spann 3.77, Guskov 0.0): Spann is far more wrestling-oriented and will likely look to get this fight to the mat at some point. Guskov has yet to attempt a takedown in the UFC.

  • TrueSkill Rating (Spann 32.69, Guskov 25.0): The TrueSkill ratings, which measure a fighter's overall ability, favor Spann by a decent margin. This is likely factoring in Spann's much longer track record.

Past Model Performance

The WolfTickets model has struggled in predicting both fighters, going 0-3 in Spann's last 3 fights and 0-1 in Guskov's. So while the model sees Spann as a clear favorite here based on the underlying metrics, the recent prediction track record does introduce added uncertainty.

The model was very confident in Zac Pauga to beat Guskov last time out, and Guskov won by KO/TKO. So Guskov has already proven capable of upsetting the model's expectations once before.

Conclusion

Ultimately, Ryan Spann deserves to be favored based on his lengthier UFC tenure and more well-rounded skill set. His ability to wrestle and submit opponents could prove vital, as Bogdan Guskov's grappling chops are still unproven.

However, Guskov's power striking and short UFC track record do make him a live underdog. If he can keep this fight standing and land the harder shots, an upset KO is well within the realm of possibility.

For bettors, the model's recent struggles to predict both fighters does introduce added risk. Spann is the more proven entity and justifiable favorite, but his moneyline doesn't offer great value at -200. The Guskov upset at +165 could be worth a small play for risk-tolerant bettors, as he likely has a better shot than those odds imply in what shapes up as a competitive fight. The over/under may be the safest play, as both fighters have shown finishing ability.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Ariane Lipski vs Karine Silva

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Ariane Lipski to Win

Score: 5.0 Odds: Ariane Lipski: 125 Karine Silva: -150

Ariane Lipski's Breakdown

Ariane Lipski is riding a 3-fight win streak, with her most recent victory coming by submission over Casey O'Neill in December 2023. Lipski is a well-rounded fighter, averaging 0.38 submissions and 0.38 knockdowns per fight in her UFC career. She lands 4.27 significant strikes per minute at 41% accuracy.

Lipski's striking defense has been a vulnerability, absorbing 2.71 significant head strikes per minute. But she has shown improvement lately, with her recent significant striking defense at 57%. Her takedown defense is also concerning at just 26%. Look for Lipski to keep the fight standing where her volume and diverse striking can take over.

Karine Silva's Breakdown

Undefeated in the UFC, Karine Silva has won all 3 of her fights by submission, averaging a whopping 3.86 submissions per fight. She is a highly skilled grappler, landing 3.86 takedowns per fight at 100% accuracy.

On the feet, Silva is aggressive, throwing 7.38 significant head strike attempts per minute, but landing at just a 38% clip. Defensively she absorbs 1.55 significant head strikes per minute. Silva will undoubtedly look to take this fight to the ground early and often to utilize her elite submission game.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Lipski's improved takedown defense will be critical. She cannot allow Silva to dictate where the fight takes place if she wants to win.
  • Silva's submission prowess is unmatched. If she can get Lipski down, the fight could end quickly. Lipski must stay vigilant.
  • Striking volume favors Lipski. She throws and lands at a higher rate than Silva. Over 5 rounds, that could be the difference if grappling is neutralized.
  • Can Silva handle Lipski's power? Lipski has the edge in knockdowns per fight. If she can land clean, it could be lights out for Silva.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds favoring Silva (-150) increased the model's score for Lipski by 3.0, suggesting the model sees value in betting Lipski as an underdog.

  • Recent Win Percentage: Lipski's 100% win rate in her last 5 fights increased the score by 3.0. The model heavily factors in recent performance.

  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Lipski lands 0.36 more significant strikes than she absorbs per minute, while Silva lands 5.0 more. This decreased the score for Lipski by 0.0, as Silva's differential is much higher. However, the sample size for Silva is small.

  • Striking Defense Percentage: Lipski defends just 45% of strikes against her, decreasing the score by 1.0. Silva's 52% is better, but not by much.

Past Model Performance

In Lipski's last 4 fights, WolfTicketsAI predicted her to lose each time. She defied the odds, going 3-1 over that span. This suggests the model may be underrating Lipski.

For Silva, the model has only 1 past prediction - it correctly picked her to beat Maryna Moroz in August 2023. With such a small sample size, it's hard to gauge the model's accuracy on Silva.

Conclusion

While Karine Silva has looked unstoppable in her young UFC career, I believe the model is correct in picking Ariane Lipski to pull the upset. Lipski's striking volume and underrated power pose serious problems for Silva, who relies heavily on landing takedowns. If Lipski can stuff those attempts and make Silva uncomfortable on the feet, we could see the Brazilian's perfect UFC record come to an end.

That said, Silva's submission skills mean she's always live in this fight. Lipski will be playing with fire if she gets taken down. She must fight the perfect fight to win, but at plus money, she's worth a stab. Prediction: Ariane Lipski by 4th round TKO.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Jonathan Pearce vs David Onama

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jonathan Pearce to Win

Score: 12 Odds: Jonathan Pearce: -170 David Onama: 140

Jonathan Pearce's Breakdown

Jonathan Pearce is a well-rounded fighter with a strong grappling base. He averages 5.33 takedowns per fight and has won by submission in the UFC. In his last fight against Joanderson Brito, Pearce was submitted in the second round, showing a potential vulnerability. However, prior to that loss, he had put together an impressive 4-fight win streak in the UFC.

Pearce's striking has been steadily improving. He lands 4.48 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.78. His striking defense (50.87%) and accuracy (66.31%) are both solid. Look for Pearce to mix in his wrestling with his striking to keep Onama guessing.

David Onama's Breakdown

David Onama is an exciting prospect with knockout power. He has finished 3 of his 4 UFC wins by KO/TKO, including a highlight reel knockout of Gabriel Santos in his last fight. Onama lands a blistering 5.38 significant strikes per minute.

However, Onama's grappling could be a liability against a wrestler like Pearce. He attempts only 4.63 takedowns per fight and his takedown accuracy is just 18.75%. Onama was controlled on the ground in his loss to Nate Landwehr. He'll need to keep this fight standing to have his best chance of winning.

Analysis and Key Points

  • This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. Onama has the clear advantage on the feet, while Pearce will look to take it to the mat.
  • Pearce's submission loss in his last fight is concerning. It shows he can be vulnerable on the ground against high-level grapplers. However, Onama is not known for his grappling.
  • Onama has scary KO power and faster hands. If he can stuff Pearce's takedowns and keep it standing, he has a great chance of getting a knockout.
  • Pearce has to avoid getting into a firefight. His path to victory is to grind Onama down with wrestling and top control. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Pearce.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds currently favor Pearce at -170. This was a significant factor in the model predicting him to win.
  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Pearce lands 16.71 more impactful significant strikes per minute than his opponents. This advantage increased the model's confidence in a Pearce win.
  • Recent Win Percentage: Pearce has won 67% of his last 3 fights, while Onama has won 67% of his last 3. Their recent winning percentages being equal slightly increased the model's pick of Pearce.
  • Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: Pearce shoots for more takedowns (11.48 per fight) compared to Onama (5.33 per fight) in their recent fights. Pearce's high takedown rate boosted the model's prediction for him.

Past Model Performance

The WolfTicketsAI model has had mixed results predicting these fighters:

  • The model predicted correctly in Pearce's last 3 fights, but incorrectly picked him to lose to Joanderson Brito.
  • The model has only correctly predicted 1 of Onama's last 3 fights. It incorrectly picked against him in his last 2 bouts.

The model's shaky recent record, especially predicting Onama fights, adds some uncertainty to this pick. Bettors should be cautious.

Conclusion

Jonathan Pearce has a clear path to victory by utilizing his wrestling against a striking-focused opponent in David Onama. The model favors Pearce based on the betting odds and his grappling advantage.

However, Onama's knockout power makes him dangerous, and the model has struggled to predict his fights accurately.

This bout will likely come down to whether Pearce can consistently land takedowns or if Onama can keep it on the feet and land a big shot. It's a competitive matchup, but WolfTicketsAI gives the slight edge to Jonathan Pearce.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Tim Means vs Uros Medic

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Uros Medic to Win

Score: 13 Odds: Tim Means: 250 Uros Medic: -310

Tim Means's Breakdown

Tim "The Dirty Bird" Means is a seasoned UFC veteran with an impressive 33-15 record. Known for his gritty style and willingness to brawl, Means has faced a who's who of welterweight contenders over his long career.

In his most recent fight, Means scored a highlight reel KO over Andre Fialho, showcasing his powerful striking. However, he's had mixed results in his last few outings, dropping fights to skilled grapplers like Alex Morono and Kevin Holland by submission.

At 39 years old, there are questions about how much Means has left in the tank. But he's proven time and again that he's a tough out for anyone in the division. Look for him to utilize his 75" reach advantage and high-volume striking attack to keep the fight standing against Medic.

Uros Medic's Breakdown

Uros "The Doctor" Medic is an exciting prospect with a well-rounded skill set. The 30-year-old Serbian fighter has racked up a 9-2 record, with all of his wins coming by finish.

Medic has serious power in his hands, as evidenced by his 1.69 knockdowns per fight. He's also an underrated grappler, with a strong takedown defense and submission game.

In his last fight, Medic suffered a submission loss to Myktybek Orolbai. But prior to that, he scored back-to-back KO wins over Matthew Semelsberger and Omar Morales. Look for him to mix up his striking and grappling to keep Means guessing.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Clash of styles: This fight pits a veteran striker in Means against a younger, more well-rounded fighter in Medic. It will be interesting to see which man can impose his gameplan.
  • Finishing ability: With a combined 33 finishes between them, both Means and Medic have fight-ending power and technique. Don't expect this one to go the distance.
  • Age vs youth: At 39, Means is nearing the end of his career, while the 30-year-old Medic is just entering his prime. Will the young lion take out the old lion, or can Means turn back the clock once more?

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The betting odds significantly favor Medic, which aligns with and was the biggest factor in WolfTicketsAI's prediction.
  • Recent win percentage: Medic's 0.67 recent win percentage is much higher than Means' 0.33, further supporting the prediction.
  • Recent takedown attempts: Medic attempts more takedowns per fight recently, which could be key to winning if he can bring the fight to the mat.
  • Striking differentials: Several striking metrics, like significant striking output differential, slightly favor Medic and pushed the prediction more in his direction.

Past Model Performance

When WolfTickets has predicted Means to win in the past, it's been right 3 out of 4 times. The one time it predicted him to lose (against Alex Morono), that prediction was correct.

For Medic, WolfTickets is 1-1 when predicting his fights. It correctly called his KO win over Matthew Semelsberger, but incorrectly picked him to lose against Omar Morales.

So the model has a solid track record with these fighters overall, but it's not perfect. The prediction for Medic should be taken with a grain of salt given the small sample size of his UFC career thus far.

Conclusion

Expect a firefight early between these two strikers, but Medic's edge in power and overall skill set gives him the advantage the longer the fight goes. He's the rightful favorite, and while an early Means KO isn't out of the question, the pick is Medic to weather the early storm and come on strong to get the finish in the later rounds. The Doctor will see you now.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Rani Yahya vs Victor Henry

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Victor Henry to Win

Score: 19 Odds: Rani Yahya: 375 Victor Henry: -500

Rani Yahya's Breakdown

Rani Yahya is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist known for his slick submissions and relentless grappling attack. With 1.58 submissions per fight over his UFC career, Yahya is always hunting for the finish on the ground. His takedown game is also strong, averaging 2.82 takedowns per fight at a 33.6% accuracy rate.

However, Yahya's striking leaves much to be desired. He only lands 1.77 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.02, giving him a negative striking differential. His 51.3% significant strike defense is also concerning, especially against a capable striker like Henry.

Yahya's recent form is also a red flag. He was brutally knocked out by Montel Jackson in his last fight, and has lost 2 of his last 3. At 38 years old, it's fair to question how much Yahya has left in the tank.

Victor Henry's Breakdown

Victor Henry is a well-rounded fighter with a solid striking game. He lands a whopping 8.26 significant strikes per minute at 54.8% accuracy, while only absorbing 5.79 in return. His +29 significant striking impact differential is impressive and showcases his ability to consistently outland opponents.

Henry's takedown defense is solid at 68.3%, which will be crucial against a grappler like Yahya. He's never been submitted in his UFC career. On the feet, Henry mixes it up well to the head and body, while also having a serviceable clinch game if needed.

The biggest concern for Henry is his lack of UFC experience with only 4 fights. He lost a decision to veteran Raphael Assuncao, showing he can be outpointed by crafty opposition. However, a split decision win over tough wrestler Tony Gravely showcased Henry's ability to overcome adversity.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Yahya's path to victory is clear - get this fight to the ground and work for submissions. His BJJ is world-class and he's a threat to finish from any position.
  • For Henry, keeping this fight standing is paramount. He has significant striking and cardio advantages that will only grow as the fight goes on. Sprawling and brawling is his key to victory.
  • Yahya's age and recent KO loss are major red flags. At 38, his durability and ability to withstand Henry's power on the feet is questionable. Another KO loss could spell the end of his UFC run.
  • Henry's limited UFC experience adds uncertainty to this matchup. While he's looked good so far, he hasn't faced many durable grapplers like Yahya. How he handles adversity if put on his back is a big question mark.

Understanding the Prediction

  • The betting odds heavily favor Henry and moved the model prediction by 16 points in his direction. The oddsmakers clearly see Henry as a sizable favorite, likely due to his striking advantage and Yahya's age.
  • Yahya's 9.19 takedown attempts per fight increased the prediction score for Henry by 6 points. While Yahya is relentless with his takedowns, a high volume of attempts against a solid defensive wrestler in Henry may lead to fatigue as the fight goes on.
  • Yahya's negative significant striking impact differential decreased the prediction score for him by 2 points. His inability to consistently land impactful strikes compared to what he absorbs is concerning, especially against a punishing striker in Henry.

Past Model Performance

The model has limited data on both fighters, adding uncertainty to the prediction:

  • For Yahya, the model only has data from his last fight, a KO loss to Montel Jackson. It correctly predicted a Jackson win in a low-confidence prediction. More data is needed to gauge the model's read on Yahya.

  • For Henry, the model is 0-2 in predicting his fights, incorrectly picking him to beat Assuncao and to lose to Gravely. This spotty track record makes this prediction a bit risky from a betting perspective.

Conclusion

All signs point to a Victor Henry win, likely by decision. His striking advantage is simply too much for the aging Yahya to overcome. Unless Yahya can consistently get Henry down and keep him there, he'll struggle to match Henry's pace and power on the feet.

However, there are enough question marks surrounding both fighters to proceed with caution. Henry's inexperience and the model's poor performance picking his fights are red flags. Additionally, Yahya is still a world-class grappler capable of stealing a fight with one well-timed submission.

For bettors, taking Henry straight up is the play, but his -500 line is a bit too steep. Look for prop bets on this fight going to decision or Yahya by submission for the best value. An outright bet on Yahya at +375 isn't the worst idea either given the uncertainty involved.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Austin Hubbard vs Michal Figlak

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Austin Hubbard to Win

Score: 11 Odds: Austin Hubbard: 130 Michal Figlak: -155

Austin Hubbard's Breakdown

Austin Hubbard is a seasoned lightweight with a 16-7 record, though he's had mixed results in his 8 UFC fights. His striking defense has been a strength, absorbing just 1.95 head strikes per minute while landing 1.86 of his own. He's also shown good takedown ability, securing 1.55 takedowns per fight at a 52% accuracy rate.

However, Hubbard has struggled in his last few outings, losing 3 of his last 4. Most recently, he was submitted by Kurt Holobaugh in the 2nd round. Prior to that, he lost a unanimous decision to Vinc Pichel. His takedown defense was exposed in the Pichel fight, giving up 4 takedowns.

Michal Figlak's Breakdown

Michal Figlak is a promising lightweight prospect with an 8-1 record, though he only has one UFC fight under his belt so far. In that debut against Fares Ziam, Figlak showed some holes in his game. He was outstruck 56-36 in significant strikes and absorbed 2.26 head strikes per minute while only landing 0.86 of his own.

Figlak did show good takedown ability, securing 1 takedown on 5 attempts. But his takedown defense was lacking as he gave up 3 of 4 attempts. Overall, there are still a lot of question marks around Figlak given his inexperience at the top level.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Striking Matchup Favors Hubbard: Hubbard has the edge in significant striking, both offensively and defensively. He lands 3.83 per minute to Figlak's 1.86, while absorbing less at 1.95 per minute vs 2.26 for Figlak.
  • Hubbard's Experience Advantage: With 8 UFC fights compared to just 1 for Figlak, Hubbard has seen a much higher level of competition. That seasoning could be key.
  • Figlak's Takedown Ability: In his debut, Figlak showed promise with his wrestling, securing a takedown and defending 3 of 4 attempts. If he can get Hubbard down, it could be a path to victory.
  • Questions About Figlak: With such a small sample size in the UFC, there are still a lot of unknowns about Figlak's game and how it will hold up against tougher competition. Betting on him is riskier as a result.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Hubbard's differential of 5.62 is much better than Figlak's -32.0, increasing the prediction score significantly.
  • Striking Impact Differential: Similarly, Hubbard's overall striking differential of 14.75 dwarfs Figlak's -56.0, again boosting the prediction in his favor.
  • Striking Defense Percentage: Hubbard absorbs just 50% of his opponent's strike attempts, while Figlak absorbs 68%, giving another advantage to Hubbard.
  • Odds: Interestingly, the odds actually favor Figlak at -155 compared to +130 for Hubbard. The prediction model sees value in betting Hubbard as an underdog.

Past Model Performance

This is the first time WolfTicketsAI has predicted a fight involving Michal Figlak, so there is no past performance data to assess.

For Austin Hubbard, the model's one previous prediction did not go well. It gave Hubbard a score of 0.69 in his fight against Kurt Holobaugh, but Hubbard went on to lose by 2nd round submission. This adds some uncertainty to the model's prediction here.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI sees value in Austin Hubbard as a +130 underdog against the lightly tested Michal Figlak. Hubbard has significant advantages in striking volume and defense that the model believes will be the difference.

However, there are some risk factors to consider. Hubbard is just 1-3 in his last 4 fights and was submitted in his most recent outing. With the model going 0-1 in predicting his fights, it's worth proceeding with some caution.

For Figlak, his takedown ability is intriguing but his striking defense is a concern, especially against a higher volume striker in Hubbard. And with no track record to evaluate the model's performance on Figlak, his side of the matchup is harder to handicap.

Overall, the bet is Hubbard at plus money, but given the uncertainty around both fighters in recent performances, keeping the wager small is advisable.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Don'Tale Mayes vs Caio Machado

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Caio Machado to Win

Score: 11 Odds: Don'Tale Mayes: 102 Caio Machado: -130

Don'Tale Mayes's Breakdown

Don'Tale Mayes is a veteran heavyweight with a 10-6 record (1 NC). His UFC record is more mixed, going 3-3. He's coming off a decision loss to Rodrigo Nascimento in his last fight, but before that scored an impressive KO win over former champ Andrei Arlovski.

Mayes has shown solid striking skills, with 3.12 significant strikes landed per minute at a 42% accuracy. His striking defense is lacking though, absorbing 4.08 significant strikes per minute. He's been rocked and finished a few times in his recent fights. Grappling-wise he attempts a decent number of takedowns (1.88 per fight) but doesn't always secure them.

Caio Machado's Breakdown

Caio Machado is a bit of an unknown quantity in the UFC, with just 1 fight so far - a unanimous decision loss to Mick Parkin. But his overall MMA record is impressive at 8-2.

In his debut, Machado showed very active and effective striking, landing 5.07 significant strikes per minute at a 57.6% accuracy. He absorbed 2.6 significant strikes per minute in return. Grappling wasn't a big factor in that fight, with Machado attempting one unsuccessful takedown and defending 4 of 7 takedown attempts.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Machado has the statistical edge in striking volume, accuracy, and defense
  • However, those stats are from a very small 1 fight sample size in the UFC
  • Mayes is more proven against UFC-level competition but has been inconsistent
  • There are still some questions about Machado's overall game and grappling abilities
  • With a close matchup like this, the odds are appealing on Mayes as a slight underdog

Understanding the Prediction

The model predicts Machado to win, factoring in:

  • Odds: Machado being a -130 favorite increased the prediction score
  • Reach: Machado will have a 3-inch reach advantage
  • Significant Striking Defense Percentage: Machado's solid 60% defense in his debut increased the score slightly

However, some factors favored Mayes and decreased Machado's score:

  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Mayes has a -9.5 differential to Machado's +37, a big gap
  • Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Similar story with -11 for Mayes and +37 for Machado
  • Recent Win Percentage: Mayes only 33% in last 3 fights, Machado 0-1 in UFC

Past Model Performance

This is the first time the model has predicted a fight involving Caio Machado, so no past performance to go on there. For Don'Tale Mayes, the model is 2-1 in predicting his last 3 fights - correctly picking him to lose to Sakai and Nascimento but incorrectly picking against him vs Arlovski.

Conclusion

In a battle of heavyweights looking to break into the upper echelon, WolfTicketsAI gives the edge to Caio Machado over Don'Tale Mayes. Machado looked great in his debut loss and the underlying numbers suggest he can outland Mayes with his higher volume striking attack.

However, this is a difficult fight to predict with much certainty. Machado has just one UFC fight, so the model is working with limited data on how he fares against top competition. Mayes has been inconsistent but dangerous, and the odds are enticing on him as a small underdog. The model's past predictions on him have been hit and miss.

Overall though, if Machado can keep this fight standing and maintain his striking advantages, he has a solid path to victory and to moving up the heavyweight ladder. The pick is Machado by decision in a competitive fight.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Marnic Mann vs Ketlen Souza

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Ketlen Souza to Win

Score: 28 Odds: Marnic Mann: 255 Ketlen Souza: -350

Marnic Mann's Breakdown

Marnic Mann's UFC debut ended in a unanimous decision loss to Josefine Knutsson. In that fight, Mann was outstruck significantly, absorbing 3.53 head strikes per minute while only landing 0.40 of her own. She attempted 2 takedowns but was unsuccessful. Mann's striking defense percentage of 28.6% and significant striking defense percentage of 36.7% are quite low, indicating she has trouble avoiding damage.

Ketlen Souza's Breakdown

Ketlen Souza's lone UFC fight was a submission loss to Karine Silva at flyweight. In that fight, Souza showed somewhat better striking defense, avoiding 66.7% of total strikes and 70% of significant strikes. However, she was still outstruck, absorbing 1.14 leg kicks per minute while not landing any of her own. Souza only landed 0.57 total strikes per minute.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Both fighters are relatively inexperienced in the UFC, with a combined 2 fights. This makes the outcome less predictable.
  • Mann's very low striking defense percentages suggest she will likely absorb a lot of damage against Souza.
  • Souza's striking defense was better than Mann's in her debut, but still not impressive.
  • Neither fighter landed many strikes in their debut fights, but Mann was more active with 2.60 strikes landed per minute vs Souza's 0.57.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds heavily favor Souza, decreasing the model's score for Mann by 12 points. This aligns with Souza's betting line of -350.
  • Striking Defense Percentage: Souza's superior striking defense percentage of 66.7% vs Mann's 28.6% decreased the score for Mann by 5 points.
  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: Souza's differential of -3 is much better than Mann's -73, decreasing Mann's score by 3 points.
  • Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Similarly, Souza's recent differential of -3 beats Mann's -73, decreasing Mann's score by 2 points.

Past Model Performance

The model has no past prediction data for either fighter to analyze.

Conclusion

While both Marnic Mann and Ketlen Souza lost their UFC debuts, the betting odds and striking metrics favor Souza in this matchup. Souza absorbed fewer strikes and had a better striking defense percentage than Mann.

However, with each fighter having only one UFC fight, there are still many unknowns. The lack of historical performance for the model to draw upon also makes this prediction less certain.

Overall, while Souza should be favored based on what we've seen so far, this is a difficult fight to predict with a high degree of confidence given the limited data available. Bettors should be cautious with this one.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Ivana Petrovic vs Liang Na

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Ivana Petrovic to Win

Score: 20 Odds: Ivana Petrovic: -530 Liang Na: 360

Ivana Petrovic's Breakdown

Ivana Petrovic enters this fight with an impressive 6-1 record in her MMA career. In her last fight against Luana Carolina in July 2023, Petrovic suffered her first professional loss by unanimous decision at flyweight. Despite the setback, Petrovic has shown promise with her grappling skills, averaging 2 submissions attempts and 2 takedowns per fight in her UFC career so far. She will likely look to take this fight to the mat and hunt for a submission finish.

Liang Na's Breakdown

Liang Na steps into the octagon with a wealth of experience, boasting a 19-7 record. However, her UFC tenure has been rough, suffering three consecutive losses by KO/TKO. Most recently in August 2023, Na was knocked out by JJ Aldrich in the second round. This concerning trend of being finished by strikes raises questions about her durability and defensive capabilities at this stage of her career. Na does have a strong grappling background though, averaging 5.1 takedowns per fight in her UFC run.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Petrovic's grappling prowess: With an average of 2 submissions and 2 takedowns per fight, Petrovic will likely seek to control the fight on the ground and look for a submission opportunity.
  • Na's concerning losing streak: Having been knocked out in her last three UFC fights, there are serious doubts about Na's ability to absorb damage and compete at the highest level.
  • Clash of grapplers: Both fighters have strong grappling stats, which could lead to intriguing scrambles and positional battles on the mat.
  • Petrovic's superior striking defense: Petrovic has a significant striking defense percentage of 52.87%, notably higher than Na's 27.52%, suggesting she may be better equipped to avoid damage on the feet.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds heavily favor Petrovic: The betting odds have Petrovic as a sizable -530 favorite, which aligns with the model's prediction and increased its score by 21 points.
  • Petrovic's striking defense edge: Petrovic's striking defense percentage of 32.93% is higher than Na's 21.76%, further supporting the model's leaning towards Petrovic and adding 2 points to her score.
  • Petrovic's recent form: With a strong 86% win percentage in her recent fights, Petrovic's momentum boosts the model's confidence in her, increasing the score by 2 points.

Past Model Performance

The model has limited data to work with, as there are no recorded past predictions for Ivana Petrovic. However, it did incorrectly pick Liang Na to defeat Silvana Gomez Juarez in June 2022 with a score of 0.74, only for Na to suffer a first-round KO loss. The model's poor performance in predicting Na's fights adds some uncertainty to the current pick.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts Ivana Petrovic to defeat Liang Na with a confidence score of 20. Petrovic's strong grappling skills, superior striking defense, and positive momentum make her the clear favorite. However, Na's own grappling abilities could make for competitive mat exchanges. The model's historically inaccurate predictions for Na's fights introduce some risk, but the lopsided odds and Petrovic's overall advantages still paint a convincing picture for her victory.

SHAP Chart

Analysis: Gabriel Benitez vs Maheshate

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Gabriel Benitez to Win

Score: 5 Odds: Gabriel Benitez: 180 Maheshate: -235

Gabriel Benitez's Breakdown

Gabriel Benitez is a veteran of the UFC, having fought in the promotion since 2014. He has a well-rounded skill set, with the ability to finish fights by both knockout and submission. His striking is particularly dangerous, as he lands 4.92 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 41.8%.

In his most recent fight against Jim Miller, Benitez showed off his toughness, surviving an early onslaught before eventually being submitted in the third round. Prior to that, he scored an impressive first-round knockout over Charlie Ontiveros, demonstrating his power.

One area of concern for Benitez is his takedown defense, which sits at just 79.3%. Against a strong grappler, he could find himself in trouble if he can't keep the fight standing.

Maheshate's Breakdown

Maheshate is a relative newcomer to the UFC, with just three fights in the promotion. However, he has already shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in his knockout win over Steve Garcia.

Maheshate has excellent striking, landing 3.17 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 35.5%. He also has serious knockout power, averaging 8.41 knockdowns per fight in his recent bouts.

However, Maheshate's takedown defense is a major question mark. He has yet to face a strong grappler in the UFC, and his takedown defense ratio of 1.04 suggests he could be vulnerable to takedowns.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Striking Battle: Both fighters are skilled strikers, but Benitez has the edge in experience and output. Expect him to try to keep the fight standing and outpoint Maheshate.
  • Grappling Question Mark: Neither fighter has faced a strong grappler recently, so it's hard to say how they will fare if the fight hits the mat. Benitez's takedown defense is a concern.
  • Knockout Potential: Both fighters have serious knockout power, so this fight could end in an instant if either lands cleanly.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Significant Striking Impact Differential: This feature increased the prediction score by 12.0, favoring Benitez. He has a significant striking impact differential of 5.86, compared to -25.67 for Maheshate.
  • Recent Win Percentage: This feature increased the prediction score by 3.0, favoring Benitez. His recent win percentage is 33%, while Maheshate's is also 33%.
  • Striking Defense Percentage: This feature increased the prediction score by 2.0, favoring Benitez. His striking defense percentage is 56.9%, while Maheshate's is 43.7%.

Past Model Performance

The model has a mixed track record with these fighters:

  • For Gabriel Benitez, the model correctly predicted his last two fights, but incorrectly picked him to lose against David Onama.
  • For Maheshate, the model correctly predicted his losses in his last two fights.

Given the model's recent success in predicting these fighters, there is reason to trust its pick of Benitez. However, the lack of data on Maheshate adds some uncertainty.

Conclusion

This fight promises to be an exciting striking battle between two dangerous finishers. Gabriel Benitez has the edge in experience and striking output, while Maheshate has the advantage in raw knockout power.

Ultimately, the model favors Benitez due to his better striking defense and more proven track record. However, Maheshate's knockout potential means he can never be counted out.

This is a close fight that could go either way, but if forced to pick, the data leans towards a Benitez victory by decision or late knockout. Just be wary of Maheshate's fight-changing power.